EU Confidential – "Growing Pains: Can the EU Handle Enlargement?"

Podcast: EU Confidential, POLITICO Europe
Host: Sarah Wheaton
Date: November 14, 2025
Duration: ~40 minutes

Episode Overview

This episode examines the European Union's (EU) most consequential question for its future: can, and should, the bloc enlarge—potentially as soon as 2030, as suggested by recent progress reports? Host Sarah Wheaton, joined by experts, EU leaders, and voices from around the continent, unpacks the political, cultural, strategic, and personal challenges behind expanding the EU. The debate includes perspectives from the Western Balkans, Ukraine, and Iceland, capturing both the hope and frustration that define the current enlargement moment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why Enlargement? The Geopolitical Urgency

• Kaia Kallas, EU Foreign Policy Chief (Clip, 00:00–00:18):
  “Enlargement is not nice to have. It is a necessity if we want to be a stronger player on the world stage.”
• Enlargement is no longer a luxury; Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s global ambitions have put urgency behind adding new members.
• The latest EU progress report hints at expansion by 2030, with Moldova, Albania, and Montenegro praised for reforms, Ukraine called out for slow anti-corruption progress, and Serbia/Georgia flunking on key criteria.
• EU’s existential debate: Can enlargement deliver strategic strength, or will it create more dysfunction (e.g., “the Hungary problem”—a single member blocking decision-making)?

2. Identity, Belonging, and the Incomplete European Project

Guest: Sneszka Quaedvlieg-Mihailovic, Secretary General, Europa Nostra (03:07–20:07)

Her Perspective

• Personal roots: Born and raised in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, at a time when European integration felt “part of my DNA, not learned.”
  • “Europe is the cultural project, it is the value based project. I’m passionate about that project… it will not be completed until we embrace all countries and all people aspiring to be part of that extraordinary journey.” (C, 03:35)
• A ‘momentum’ created by crisis:
  • The war in Ukraine “has become a wake-up call to Europeans” — sparking renewed attention and urgency to complete European unification (C, 04:55).

Challenges and Risks

• Enlargement fatigue: Long process with little progress leads to skepticism and vulnerability to anti-EU (especially Russian) propaganda (C, 06:47).
  • Quote: “They are pretending that they want to enlarge and we are pretending that we want to join.” (C, 07:45)
• Technocratic vs. real reform: Despite high-level promises, Brussels is “still talking about institutional reforms, veto rights… not fundamentally taking on board the citizens… But this is now changing.” (C, 08:25)

Creative Solutions & Integration Without Full Rights

• On partial integration, even without immediate veto rights:
  • “If we don’t really use all the imagination to find a solution… as much integrated into various processes, various programs, but without frightening… the existing member states, that could lead to even more deadlocks.” (C, 09:10)
  • “Okay, we can join even if we don’t have the voting rights, but please just let us be in.” (C, 10:23)
• EU’s soft power success now depends on investing massively in pro-European forces, explaining values, and offering tangible involvement, even if it means staged rights (C, 11:01).

Mixed Messages & Values Versus Interests

• On Serbia and the EU's credibility:
  • “There is so much proof that Vucic is not at all interested in European values… misusing the existence of the important lithium deposit in Serbia somehow to buy the support of the EU for a regime that absolutely… did not deserve… every condemnation.” (C, 12:51)
  • “This is simply contradiction, Terminis.” (C, 14:04)

Enlarging Amid Security Crisis

• Ukraine and Moldova: EU enlargement increasingly viewed less as “charity” and more as a “shield” against outside threats.
  • "…the aspiration that European Union, by accepting new member states, can show that it is the success story, especially, you know, after having lost one member state..." (C, 14:49)

Balancing Readiness and Values

• Risks of premature accession:
  • “Were the founding member states ready... after the catastrophe of the Second World War? Nobody has been fully ready… defending democracy, the rule of law, the human rights–it is an ongoing battle.” (C, 18:18)
  • Emphasizes the EU must not compromise on values, even as it pursues market and defense integration.

3. Western Balkans View: Kosovo’s Long Wait

Interviewee: Vjosa Osmani, President of Kosovo (21:39–28:45)

Frustration at the Slow Process

• Kosovo: “We don’t flirt with other powers…the triangle of evil—Russia, China, Iran… but… it feels that this pro-European approach… is taken for granted… 97% of the people of Kosovo are pro-European.” (F, 22:04)
• “It seems like the merit-based process the EU talks so much about, it’s still something to come. I don’t see it happening yet.” (F, 22:55)
• Germany is viewed as key to unlocking progress.
• Kosovo’s application to join the EU (December 2022) has not advanced in three years.

Kosovo’s Singular Commitment to Europe

• “Kosovo should not be seen as a burden any longer. We have the youngest population in Europe that is tech savvy, multilingual, the best in southeastern Europe in IT competitiveness, they’re brilliant.” (F, 24:02)
• We seek not “charity, not a shortcut… but exactly respect for the work that we do.”

Reform Before Enlargement?

• “If we wait for the EU reform for enlargement to happen, it might take decades... reform and enlargement can happen in parallel.” (F, 25:16)
• Warnings that delaying enlargement risks destabilizing the Western Balkans: “If we put enlargement in the waiting room, I think it could be an invitation to destabilization..." (F, 25:59)

On the Risk of ‘Trojan Horses’

• “We need to look at the situation of democracy, rule of law, and human rights in each and every country… whoever does the homework needs to move ahead. But whoever doesn’t, they need to stay behind. Because I don’t think the European Union needs a Trojan horse inside.” (F, 25:51)
• When asked about alternatives if the process fails: “No matter how thorny the road, no matter how long it is, we’re not going to change course.” (F, 27:35)

4. Northern Edge: Iceland’s “Maybe” on the EU

Interviewee: Erika Bergmann, Political Scientist (28:45–40:05)

Iceland’s Paradoxical Relationship with Europe

• Already participates in Schengen and the single market via the EEA (“For all practical purposes [Iceland is] within the realm of the EU.”) (G, 29:44)
• The key tension: historic identity built on sovereignty & independence vs. the drive for economic parity with Europe.

Why Iceland Froze Accession

• Entered accession talks after the 2008 financial crash due to economic need, but national politics and a 2013 right-wing government killed momentum.
  • “There are two competing and contrasting factors… the core derives from a long independence struggle, but also a desire for prosperity and equal partnership.”

Today’s Debate: Security, Trump & the Nordics

• Russian aggression and uncertainty around US global commitments (Trump’s foreign policy) raise the profile of EU membership for Iceland’s security, especially as other Nordics are both in NATO and the EU.
• Ursula von der Leyen’s recent Reykjavik visit (July 2025) spurred suspicion among some, reigniting fears over “loss of independence.” (G, 37:09)

Icelandic Public Opinion: Swinging & Undecided

• Public opinion is volatile: “I remember polls where more than 90%… supported application… and polls saying 90% wanted to stay outside.” (G, 37:41)
• Upcoming 2027 referendum is about restarting accession talks, not ratifying membership.

No to “Member Minus”

• Iceland would not accept EU membership without full rights:
  • “There would be no point in moving forward with negotiations if that would be a prerequisite. Iceland needs to be recognized as an equal partner and can’t be treated in a different way. That is absolutely out of the question.” (G, 39:38)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On European Identity:
  “I have not learned to be European. When I left Belgrade, it is in Belgrade that my journey started.” – Sneszka Quaedvlieg-Mihailovic (C, 03:14)
• On Enlargement Fatigue & Skepticism:
  “They are pretending that they want to enlarge and we are pretending that we want to join.” – Sneszka Quaedvlieg-Mihailovic (C, 07:45)
• On Strategic Patience from Kosovo:
  “No matter how thorny the road, no matter how long it is, we’re not going to change course.” – Vjosa Osmani (F, 27:38)
• On Readiness and the Value of the Process:
  “Nobody has been fully ready to join the European Union. It is an ongoing process defending democracy, the rule of law, the human rights.” – Sneszka Quaedvlieg-Mihailovic (C, 18:18)
• On Icelandic Ambivalence:
  “If the process drags out, it will become gradually less and less likely Icelanders will accept a treaty at the end. So… a more rapid process is more likely to be successful.” – Erika Bergmann (G, 38:55)
• On Partial Membership:
  “No, Icelanders would not accept that and there would be no point in moving forward if that would be a prerequisite.” – Erika Bergmann (G, 39:38)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00–01:00: Opening, Kallas on the necessity of enlargement
• 03:07–20:07: Sneszka Quaedvlieg-Mihailovic on Europe’s identity, the Western Balkans, and institutional reform
• 21:39–28:45: Kosovo’s Vjosa Osmani on frustration and hope for EU accession
• 28:45–40:05: Erika Bergmann on Iceland’s complex relationship with the EU, public opinion, and the 2027 referendum

Takeaways

• Enlargement is both a political and existential question for the EU, framed by recent security crises and ongoing struggles with rule of law and democratic backsliding.
• Aspirant countries feel acute frustration at the slow, often technocratic process, risking disillusionment and susceptibility to external influence.
• There is cautious optimism for creative “in-between” solutions, though some—like Iceland—insist on full equality or nothing.
• Values remain at the heart of the debate, even as realpolitik and economic interests complicate the EU’s narrative.
• The podcast underscores the complex interplay of history, identity, security, and politics that will define whether—and how—the EU ultimately expands.