B (4:38)

Looking at enlargement more broadly, both in the candidate countries and among EU citizens, what's your sense of the current mood? Is the EU moving towards an ever larger union or do you more see a stalling or even a backward movement?

C (4:55)

I think really something is happening. You can see that there is a momentum and unfortunately it's the war in Ukraine that has become a wake up call, wake up call to Europeans. The process of the reunification of Europe has not yet been completed. And definitely the sense also so that the western Balkans, for example, that it is the inner courtyard, it's not the periphery, because the western Balkans is surrounded by the member states of the European Union. So leaving that space as a sort of whole where all sorts of political forces from also outside of Europe who want to destabilize Europe can, you know, be freely doing that work. I think that understanding has really increased. So the geopolitics in fact has a set again in motion the process. And with Ukraine and then Moldova applying for membership as a shield, perceiving European Union, that that's where they want to belong. But I think to come back to your question, indeed something is moving definitely. Also the governments in countries in the western Balkans, especially the small, the smallest country, Montenegro, are far, fully, fully determined and they're really working hard. So the proof is when there is a political will, it can go quickly.

B (6:26)

Indeed, we've seen some of these countries really go to great lengths. I mean, North Macedonia even changed the name of their country. And yet many of These countries just still face vetoes. Sometimes just one member state is holding up the process. Are there any risks if the enlargement process stalls and these countries just remain in limbo for years?

C (6:47)

Absolutely. At some point, you know, the citizens are having expectations also. And so the. Also the political leaders, the pro European political leaders can sort of keep that sort of pro European sentiments mood. But if for so long there is no advancement, there is no progress made, there is, as you know, the famous enlargement fatigue notion that is used, which is understandable. People start sort of doubting that European Union is at all serious about the enlargement process. I think, you know, that sort of sentence when they said, yeah, they are pretending that they want to enlarge and we are pretending that we want to join. And so we continue then this sort of ballet of all sorts of technocrats and politicians talking about enlargement, but not fundamentally taking on board the citizens, the civil society at large and population. And so this is now, now changing, though quite a number of people still in the western Balkans don't believe, and that is of course, stimulated by all sorts of anti European propaganda. Russia is very, very active on that front on the western Balkans in the same way they've been active in Moldova, for example. Now the recent elections, fortunately, again, the European Union is starting to understand better that they also need to invest much more in promoting the values and communicating about the values and what the European Union brings to these countries.

B (8:25)

Well, yeah, you know, I'm actually a little bit surprised to hear you say that you feel like the EU is sort of getting past the technocratic debate, because we have a bit the perception in Brussels that this is only getting more complex. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has just completed her fifth consecutive tour, the western Balkans, and she promised that the region's future lies inside the eu. But at the same time, the debate in Brussels is still talking about institutional reforms, veto rights, whether new members should be admitted before the treaties are rewritten. That's a big issue with Ukraine. So do you feel that this procedural debate is kind of helping move accession forward, or does it risk kind of just giving people more things to talk about and stall?

C (9:10)

What I want to say is that I understand the fear of more countries and the veto rule being there, because we see now why the European Union is really having difficulties with Orban, threatening all the time, using the veto, sometimes not only threatening, but using it, etc. Etc. So it is a very important issue, frankly. I think if they find some creative solutions to pull these Countries in the European Union. That is good news. That is good news because as long as there is that there is nothing changes, I fear there won't be any enlargement because there will always be at least one country that will block it. So then, if we don't really use all the imagination to find a solution, that these countries are as much integrated into various processes, various programs, but without frightening, in a sense, sort of the existing member states, that could lead to even more deadlocks and even more difficulties. This is the way forward. I don't think that the reaction from the candidate countries is negative about that idea. Okay, we can join even if we don't have the voting rights, but please just let us be in. In that sense, I see something moving. I feel that it is not anymore just a technocratical discussion.

B (10:44)

I find it really interesting what you're saying. You don't think that citizens of these countries, you don't think they would be offended that they can only come in, you know, without the full rights? I mean, it seems like it would just be ripe for anti EU propaganda to say, oh, you know, Brussels doesn't, doesn't respect you.

C (11:01)

For sure, there will be all sorts of forces that would manipulate with that and, you know, the anti EU forces and propaganda will continue to exist. We have to live with that. But then that's why the EU has to invest massively in those forces that are pro democratic, that are pro European. And these forces have been for far too long disappointed and disillusioned. I might be too optimistic. But in any case, I think if they see that there are all sorts of opportunities, that there are parts of all sorts of programs, that there are all sorts of projects where they can participate, hopefully, hopefully the leading voices in this part of the society will understand that that should not be the stumbling block. Because what is the alternative if we do not find some kind of creative solutions to allow to speed up the process? What is the alternative? No accession at all.

B (12:01)

And actually, speaking of some of these forces who are looking for help from the eu, I want to now zoom in on Serbia. President Vucic keeps close ties with Moscow and has been accused of eroding democracy at home. Over the last year, he's been crushing massive student protests. Ursula von der Leyen, during her visit to Belgrade just a few weeks ago, warned Vucic to get real about joining the eu. Yet at the same time, Brussels was eager to sign a lucrative memorandum of understanding on lithium mining with Serbia. How do you see this kind of mixed message? On the one hand, The EU is preaching values, but it's also, on the other hand, pursuing its own strategic and economic interests. And does this affect the credibility of the enlargement project?

C (12:51)

I think it affects massively. This is an issue that I simply continue not to understand. I continue not to understand that the European Union institutions and a number of member states persist in trying basically to bridge two unbridgeable worlds. There is so much proof that Vucic is not at all interested in European values and that he has been manipulating, in fact, in the same way that he has been manipulating his own population, he has been manipulating the rest of Europe and misusing the existence of the important lithium deposit in Serbia somehow to buy the support of the EU for a regime that absolutely not only did not deserve the regime that deserved every condemnation. And if the EU would really jointly and massively condemn that, combined with the massive student and civic protest, that regime simply would not last very long. There is such an awakening of the population and such a mobilization against that regime that it is simply inacceptable that the European Union still think that by doing a lithium deal, Vucic will do the homework and suddenly he will change and he will become a democratic leader. This is simply contradiction, Terminis. This is. This is a mindset as we've been talking about.

B (14:31)

Russia's war in Ukraine has given a new impetus to the enlargement debate. And Moldova, which faces a lot of pressure from Moscow, is a big part of that story. How does their path toward EU membership change the way we think about Europe's future, future and about what belonging to it would really mean?

C (14:49)

The war in Ukraine has changed a lot in the perception also where are somehow also the frontiers of the possible expansion of the European Union. And the way the Ukrainian people have been fighting, fighting for also values, I think it has increased the understanding also within the rest of Europe of the history, also of the culture of that part of the world and understanding that this is not something alien and it's something that is connected with the rest of Europe. And in that sense, yeah, it has clearly shown also that there is an aspiration that European Union, by accepting new member states, can show that it is the success story, especially, you know, after having lost one member state, showing that there is quite a number and important countries, culturally, economically important countries that perceive the European Union as the force for good and force for positive transformation.

B (15:58)

I guess what I'm still trying to understand, though, is it was these countries being attacked that sort of sped up their accession process and is the sense that their European sincerely Shared in the kind of older member countries or is the sort of effort more of just, you know, making a symbolic security point that doesn't actually have to do with this European sentiment?

C (16:25)

Definitely this process is not at all an easy process. That's why I insist on the fact that this process is not just sort of providing a security shield or that it is something which is in an economic interest of the European Union. That's why it is important to understand the European integration process has a fundamental also cultural dimension. And so the more organizations are connecting with the countries in Ukraine and Moldova, in Western Balkans, the more exchanging that you organize. Also the level of the scientists, the academic community, the cultural community, cultural heritage understanding. Because a lot of people are now learning about the cultural heritage in Ukraine the hard way, because it has been destroyed and why it has been destroyed because it is an important element of the identity of the people. What I'm saying is definitely there will be forces that will be scared and they would not want this to happen. But the solidarity that was shown to Ukraine, I don't think that it was just pragmatics and it was just something one off for a short term. And I think people discovered a lot in that process, that cultural heritage in fact now has a strategic importance.

B (17:50)

I'm going to ask one devil's advocate question. I hear what you're saying about the importance of seizing the moment to bring these countries in, but at the same time we are seeing rule of law issues throughout some of the newer member states. Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary has been sort of a way in for Putin, as many view it into kind of the EU decision making process. So is there a risk of bringing countries in before they're really ready?

C (18:18)

I can ask you, were the founding member states ready to start the whole European process five years after the catastrophe of the Second World War? Were they ready? Nobody has been fully ready to join the European Union. It is an ongoing process defending democracy, the rule of law, the human rights. It is an ongoing battle. You never take it for granted. And precisely joining the European Union is a way to insist, provided that the European Union itself is giving importance to the values to democracy, the rule of law, then it is definitely a sort of something that is going to help improve the situation. But as I said, it's conditional that the European Union does not put economy and sort of defence in the military terms as the sort of the most important things and the other things are less important. For too long, the European enlargement was limited to enlarging the market and indeed in that process, the new member states economically did not reach the level that the existing member states had. And then you have the frustration and then you have the political forces that are misusing these frustrations. So that means they will never be ready if they are out. This whole process is not just these people in the western Balkans and Ukraine and Moldova has to be better. The entire European Union needs to somehow understand that this is the most important power of Europe, these values. And then, of course, the economy is an important tool defense. We need to have defended the but we can't make compromises when it comes to the values.

B (20:07)

Okay, Snaesszka, we'll leave it there. Thank you so much for joining us.

C (20:11)

Thank you.

B (20:15)

We're going to take a quick break. When we come back, we'll hear excerpts from an interview our colleague Gordon ripinski, host of POLITICO's Berlin Playbook podcast, did recently with Kosovo's president Viosa Osmani. It was a nice day. So. So they took a stroll over leafy Berlinstrassen. Stay with us.

D (20:40)

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B (21:39)

And now to the conversation with Viosa Osmani, the president of Kosovo, who you might hear articulating just a little bit of what Snazzka earlier called enlargement for fatigue, a kind of frustration maybe with how slowly things are moving in Brussels. Gordon's first question can Germany play a more decisive role in helping Kosovo and other aspiring countries join the eu?

F (22:04)

I do hope so. I do hope so. As you know, the people of Kosovo have never looked elsewhere. We've looked at only this path. The European integration path, we don't flirt with other, other powers, malign powers, Russia, China, Iran, what I call kind of the triangle of evil. But at the same time we don't feel like this pro European approach. And the fact that we are 100% aligned with the European common foreign and security policy has been looked at or valued quite the opposite. It feels that it's taken for granted 97% of the people of coastal of our pro European. Our reforms on economy, on rule of law, especially fighting crime and corruption, have been fundamental. Yet on our European integration path, we're stuck. And it seems like the merit based process that the EU talks so much about, it's still something to come. I don't see it happening yet. But I do hope, as you said, that Germany will play that leading role in pushing for a married battle based process. Because we're not asking for charity, we're not asking for a shortcut, we're asking exactly respect for the work that we do and acceptance for the reforms that we carry out. And if that is to be taken into account, Kosovo would become the front runner. But as the reality is right now we don't even have our application looked at. We've applied in December 2022 and now we're almost, almost in December 2025. And it's somewhere in the drawers of the European Union. But it's not moving forward. If Germany takes a leadership role, I think it can happen as with every other good process that has happened so far.

G (23:46)

But are you hopeful?

H (23:47)

I mean, with Friedrich Melz, he has a massive domestic agenda and a major part of this is rather enlargement, skeptical and, and maybe not so much focus on sort of the opportunities of Europe. Although he expresses it sometimes.

F (24:02)

Well, I seem to think that that is domestic too, because I think enlargement should not only be seen, as I said, a charity process, but rather as a potential, a potential that we can share with the rest of Europe, including with Germany. Kosovo should not be seen as a burden any longer. We have the youngest population in Europe that is tech savvy, multilingual, the best in southeastern Europe in IT competitiveness, they're brilliant. So it's the human capital, it's the economic potential that is huge. And at the same time I think it should also be seen as a strategic imperative. Western Balkans that is not peace, stable and safe means a Europe that is not peace, stable and safe. So if we can get the western Balkans based on a merit based process to the European Union Union, the EU countries would benefit from that too. I think domestically there is a benefit to enlargement as well. It's just, you know, the way how you put it and the way how you explain it. So a security imperative, a strategic imperative, but it's also in the interest of the EU itself to get this process done.

H (25:10)

There's many voices who say the EU needs reform before enlargement happens.

F (25:16)

What would you argue if we wait for the EU reform for enlargement to happen? It might take decades and that is never a contribution to a Europe hold free and at peace. Which I want to believe is also the intention of the German government. However, I strongly believe that reform and enlargement can happen in parallel. There are ways to overcome some of the obstacles that exist right now. There are ways to push forward for reform when it comes to the voting process for admitting new members, so that we don't allow, let's say, just one single country to veto the entire process based on some domestic political considerations rather than larger strategic output. So I think they can be done in parallel rather than have enlargement wait for reforms, because I think that that is something against the EU itself. If we put enlargement on a waiting room, I think it could be an invitation to destabilization, especially in the western Balkans. The merit based process should be the key to everything. We need to look at the alignment with the common foreign and security policy. We need to look at the alignment with, with EU sanctions. We need to look at the situation of democracy, rule of law and human rights in each and every country and then economic reforms and other kind of reforms. And whoever does the homework needs to move ahead. But whoever doesn't, they need to stay behind. Because I don't think the European Union needs a Trojan horse inside.

G (26:57)

There are already Troy and horses.

F (26:58)

There are already. So I think another one isn't going to do any good. So to the European Union and its unity, which is fundamental in achieving anything important for the security of Europe. So it's very important that each country passes these thresholds and truly proves that they don't see the EU simply as a cash machine, but mostly as a system of values to which they adhere. We in Kosovo do, but I think each western Balkan country needs to showcase the same.

H (27:26)

You say you don't really have an alternative. You're not not looking into any other direction. But what is happening if the process would not proceed? Do you think there's a tipping point?

F (27:35)

I don't like to often talk too much about very distant history, but we are a nation that fought to defend European civilization. Well before the EU existed, our national hero, George Castrioti, fought more than 500 years ago to defend what we call the last port of Europe. That has always been the very DNA of our nation defending Europe and its values. And we have been doing that for centuries. And we're not planning to stop now. No matter how thorny the road, no matter how long it is, we're not going to change course. Because in the darkest hour of our history, when genocide was being committed against us, it was the Western power supply. It was European countries, together with the United States, that did not turn a blind eye on the people of Kosovo and came to our rescue. And that, I would say, has kind of stamped once and forever our strategic orientation alongside with history that I mentioned. No matter how long it takes, I don't see a tipping point where Kosovo would ever, ever change sides.

B (28:45)

Thanks to Gordon Ripinski for sharing this interview with us. And now we're heading to the opposite extremities of Europe. More than a decade ago, Iceland was on a fast track to join the eu. And then it wasn't, as the government in Reykjavik froze accession talks with Brussels. With a new government now in place, and amid all the geopolitical uncertainty around us, could Iceland be making another U turn back onto the European path? Here's my conversation with political scientist Erika Bergmann. Well, Erico, thank you so much for joining us. And we're connecting with you over Zoom. Today. We want to talk about Iceland maybe possibly one day joining the eu. But the reality is right now, it's pretty connected. If I wanted to go to Reykjavik for us to talk in person, I wouldn't even need my passport. Iceland's part of the Schengen area. So what is the relationship between the EU and your country today?

G (29:44)

Well, Iceland is for all sort of practical purposes within the realm of the European Union. The European Economic Area Agreement was constructed as a kind of a mechanism to bridge two international blocs in Europe. At the time, it was European Community on the one hand and EFTA on the other. And then gradually, most of the members in EFTA joined the eu, but Iceland and Norway and Liechtenstein remained in this construct, which is the European Economic Area Agreement. It basically brings these three countries into the single market. And like you said, Iceland is within Schengen, within the internal market. So the economical pressure has been alleviated to large extent.

B (30:37)

But now there is a renewed debate in Iceland about possibly joining. We'll get into the reasons for that in a second. But before we do that, I want to look back to more than a decade ago. Iceland was then firmly on the path towards full membership, but then it backed out. Can you walk us through what happened?

G (30:54)

Yes. Iceland was perhaps the first casualty of the international financial crisis of the autumn of 2008, when our entire financial system collapsed. And that created a pressure to join the European Union. I think also if people really want to understand Iceland's European relations, you have to understand that there are two competing and contrasting factors that are pulling Iceland in opposite directions. Directions. The core to Icelandic politics derives from the creation of the states in a prolonged independence struggle for Denmark, which was fought for over a century and culminated in Iceland being fully independent states in 1944. This created a political self image of the importance of independence, the importance of sovereignty. But Iceland also strove to become recognized as an equal partner, enjoying economic prosperity similar to other European countries. At the Beginning of the 20th century, Iceland was the poorest country in Western Europe. At the end of that century, it was towering all lists on economic parameters. So this economic aspiration, part of that political self image, is the driver for participating in the European integration process. But the hesitance comes from the emphasis of formal sovereignty, full independence. And there is the friction between those two conflicting sort of stripes Iceland always has had, which sort of creates a tension that results in Iceland is simply becoming pretty undecided when it comes to European integration.

B (32:55)

We saw this ambivalence play out. Indeed, in 2009 they submitted their application. But then the facts on the ground, both in Iceland and in the EU changed and led the pendulum to swing in the other day.

G (33:06)

Yes. Well, in practical terms, the change that occurred in Iceland was that there was a change of government in 2013. The election resulted in a right wing government coming into power, a coalition of two right wing parties that both were against EU membership. So they simply just halted the process then. Ever since, there has never been a coalition in Iceland until last autumn of parties that are pro EU accession.

B (33:37)

If you can actually expand on that a little bit, I mean, what are the issues driving Icelandic politics today? And how would you describe the political culture broadly? I mean, we're seeing so much polarization around the rest of the continent. Is that playing out in Iceland as well?

G (33:52)

Yes, I mean, in Iceland simply this same general overall political debates that take place in the sort of Western world is mirrored in Icelandic politics to large extents. And a lot of this debate is simply imported from elsewhere. Oftentimes it's pretty void of practical problems on the ground. But still those same debates play out the culture wars, the sort of wokeness and backlash against liberal democracy. All of these things play out equally in Iceland to anywhere else. But we have a very sort of liberal government. So they're sort of far right search that you have seen in many other countries is not mirrored in Iceland.

B (34:47)

Well, and that's a great jumping off point to now talk about what's happening today. The current government wants to reopen the EU membership debate. It said it wants to organize a referendum. So they're not totally moving forward on membership yet, but the referendum would be about whether to resume the talks with Brussels. The vote should take place in 2027. Is it fair to say to your point about importing issues, that this is all because of Donald Trump?

G (35:15)

No. The coalition came into power here prior to the second term of Donald Trump. And the EU question is simply the construct of the coalition after the latest election rather than more profound changes in the political environment. But Donald Trump coming to power in the US has impact. And there is an aspect to the EU accession discussion now that was not there last time around. The security aspect is sort of coming into play. Iceland has a bilateral defense agreement with the United States on security and defense. And sort of for the first time after Second World War era, Iceland is faced with a question on the merits of that agreement. Does it still hold properly the way that we always believed it did? And then also the war in Ukraine. Norway and Iceland are more of anomaly in the Nordic sort of security architecture as being outside of the European Union, when all of the Nordics are now members of NATO and most of them are members of the eu. So all of these things are sort of changing the worldview and change the dynamics a little bit within the debate. That might make some Icelanders more keen on EU membership.

B (36:55)

Yeah. And indeed, in late July, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Reykjavik to talk mostly about defense cooperation. Was this seen in Iceland as sort of a precursor to, you know, a membership discussion?

G (37:09)

Yes. And a lot of those people who are hesitant of EU membership were very suspicious of her visit to Iceland. The whole sort of fear of Iceland losing its independence, its serenity, that Iceland is now being sort of sought by external forces all sort of came rushing back to the surface of the political debate in Iceland.

B (37:36)

So, yes, what do we know at this point about where public opinion stands in Iceland? Has there been any polling?

G (37:41)

Yes. I explained before the different sort of drivers behind the EU question. There is one driver bringing us into the realm of the eu and then there is another one sort of pulling us away. And you See this mirrored in opinion polls. I remember opinion polls where more than 90% of Icelandic population supported application to the EU. And I remember opinion polls saying that 90% of Icelanders firmly wanted to stay outside of the European Union. It depends on the time, it depends on the political situation. And if the pendulum can swing this far in public opinion, it simply means that Icelanders are undecided. They don't know whether they want to be a member of the EU or not. But there has been a swing in the opinion polls sort of continuously now indicate that a majority of Icelanders will agree in the coming referendum to resume the application process. And that sort of results in none accession treaty then does not mean that they will in the end accept the treaty when it's on the table. But I do know one thing, if the process drags out, it will become gradually less and less likely Icelanders will accept a treaty at the end. So I mean, a more rapid process is more likely to be successful.

B (39:14)

Well, indeed, we're not really seeing a lot of rapid processes right now for other countries. You know, it's really dragging out in the western Balkans, which is something where discussing another part of this podcast and one idea was floated in October, this idea of saying okay, new countries can join but they won't have veto rights. Do you think Icelanders would accept to join under those circumstances?

G (39:38)

Finally, there is a question I can definitely answer. No, Icelanders would not accept that and there would be no point in moving forward with negotiations if that would be a prerequisite. And that sort of speaks to these deeply held political self image that Iceland has. It needs to be recognized as an equal partner and can't be treated in a different way. That is absolutely out of the question.

B (40:05)

Okay, well, Erica Bergman, thank you so much for joining us. We'll see what happens.

G (40:09)

Sure.

B (40:13)

And that's it from us this week. If you haven't already. Please follow you Confidential. Wherever you get your podcasts, rate us, leave a comment or send us an email at Podcast Politico EU thanks to Deanna Staris, our senior audio producer, and to Ann McAvoy, POLITICO's head of audio. I'm Sarah Wheaton. See you next week.

I (40:39)

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