Has Ukraine found Russia’s weak spot?

Summary

Brussels Playbook Podcast: Has Ukraine Found Russia’s Weak Spot?

Date: July 2, 2026
Hosts: Zoya Sheftalovich (POLITICO Chief EU Correspondent) & Sarah Wheaton (Policy Editor)
Episode Focus: The episode centers on Ukraine’s recent military gains against Russia—specifically targeting Russian oil refining infrastructure—and the implications for Europe’s support, upcoming political scandals in France, and a celebration of European innovation.

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Episode Overview

The hosts dissect Ukraine’s strategic advantage over Russia following targeted strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, analyze the potential ripple effects within Russian society and the broader war effort, and discuss the European political response. Additional topics include fresh investigations into EU fund misuse by far-right groups, plus a look at European innovation via the European Inventor Award.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ukraine’s Strikes on Russian Oil: A Tactical Edge

([00:27]–[05:15])

• Russian Oil Shortages:
  Hosts open with images of Russian citizens queueing for petrol, a rare sight even as Russia is one of the world’s largest oil producers.

  • Ukrainian attacks have disabled multiple Russian oil refineries, restricting fuel output.
  • “It’s not that they don’t have enough oil… the Ukrainians have been taking out the facilities where that oil is refined.” — Zoya ([01:42])

• Strategic Consequences:

  • Queues stretch for miles; disruptions are acute as Russia enters wheat sowing season.
  • Diesel is being redirected to agricultural use to prevent food production crises.
  • Putin has publicly addressed the shortages but insists the problems are temporary.

• Impact Assessment:

  • “Around a quarter of Russia’s refining capacity has been fully or partly knocked offline… That affects more than 30% of gasoline and around 25% of Russia’s diesel.” — Sarah ([02:36])
  • Deep strikes and EU sanctions combine to severely hinder Russia’s war logistics.

• Crimea’s New Vulnerability:

  • Ukrainian operations are making it more expensive for Russia to defend and supply Crimea, with damaged bridges and disrupted supply routes leading to rationing and suspended petrol sales.
  • “Ukraine is trying to make Crimea harder and more expensive for Russia to supply and defend.” — Sarah ([03:30])

• Ukraine’s Diplomatic Push:

  • Ukrainian Defense Minister Fedorov tells POLITICO that Ukraine currently holds the initiative and urges more Western financial and military support.
  • “Let’s go, back us to the full hilt and we can finish this.” — Zoya, paraphrasing Fedorov ([04:53])
  • The upcoming NATO summit (July 7, Ankara) is seen as a critical moment for additional aid and for showing Ukrainian momentum.

2. European Far-Right in the Crosshairs: EU Funds Scandal

([06:44]–[10:40])

• Raid on National Rally:

  • French far-right party National Rally (Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella) was raided following allegations of misuse of EU funds by the now-defunct Identity and Democracy (ID) group.
  • The investigation spans France, Germany (AfD), Italy’s Lega, and others.

• Scope of the Scandal:

  • ID group alleged to have misused €4.3 million from 2019–2024; suspicions include breaking public tender rules and awarding contracts to party-friendly companies.

• Accountability Challenges:

  • “It’s going to be kind of confusing… ID no longer exists… Instead, it’s been succeeded by the Patriots for Europe group.” — Sarah ([08:23])
  • Those accused deny wrongdoing; investigations struggle with the group’s dissolution.

• Political Fallout:

  • Le Pen already faces a five-year ban on presidential runs due to a previous conviction; her appeal decision is due July 7.
  • “Bardella… if he does actually get elected as president, he’ll have immunity by then. So it’s not going to actually prevent him from running in this election in the way Le Pen might be prevented.” — Zoya ([09:58])

• Unlikely Voter Backlash:

  • French voters remain largely supportive of investigations, and the party’s popularity seems undented by scandals.
  • “Most French people don’t buy this idea that there’s a witch hunt… polling shows most French voters, including National Rally voters, are supportive of the fact that the courts are really looking at these politicians.” — Sarah ([10:40])

3. European Inventor Award: Innovation on the Continental Stage

([11:02]–[13:08])

• Celebrating Invention:
  • Live from Berlin, the European Patent Office’s Inventor Award highlights breakthroughs:
    • Oat Milk Innovation:
      • Greek-Swedish scientist Angeliki Triantafilu’s invention is responsible for barista-style oat drinks—“the thicker, creamier thing that we like in our flat whites.” — Sarah ([11:38])
    • Life-Saving Worm Hemoglobin:
      • French scientist Frank Zell turns marine worm hemoglobin into technology for organ transport: “so they will worm their way into our hearts.” — Sarah ([12:04])
    • Maglev Rail in Poland:
      • Polish company Nivomo demonstrates mag rail, adding magnetic propulsion to allow driverless freight wagons, and even a track-levitating version for high speeds.
  • Winners get a trophy and “the prestige, the honor of being recognized by the European Patent Office.” — Zoya ([13:08])
  • Listeners can still vote for their favorite invention.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “If you had given us this weaponry earlier, if you had allowed us to do deep strikes into Russia… we would have deescalated by escalating.” — Zoya summarizing Ukrainian officials ([05:29])
• “Let’s cut out dated contracts, finance what’s working now, and help Ukraine get to this next step.” — Sarah relaying Fedorov’s message ([04:53])
• “This Le Pen embezzlement case has already been out there and hasn’t hurt the party’s polling.” — Sarah ([09:35])
• “If [Bardella] does actually get elected as president, he’ll have immunity by then.” — Zoya ([09:58])
• “So they will worm their way into our hearts.” — Sarah (pun, about oxygen-rich marine worms and humanity) ([12:04])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:27] – Ukraine’s breakthroughs, Russian oil shocks, and winter wheat impact
• [03:30] – Crimea’s sudden strategic liability for Russia
• [04:53] – Interview highlights with Ukraine’s Defense Minister and EU support push
• [06:44] – National Rally and cross-European far-right party raid scandal
• [11:02] – European Inventor Award finalists including oat milk, life-saving worms, and magnetic rail
• [13:08] – Listener engagement: voting for inventions, merch competition
• [15:07] – Next Weekender preview: Focus on Ukraine at the NATO summit

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Tone and Takeaways

The conversation is brisk and clear, balancing on-the-ground reporting (“I was in Poland at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdansk last week” – Zoya [05:15]) with sharp, conversational banter. The tone is pragmatic but retains lightness—especially when turning to science prizes and the hazards of double-dipping at snack tables.

Overarching Message:
Ukraine’s moment of tactical ascendancy is real but tenuous, hinging on continued Western support. Meanwhile, European politics are in flux, with scandals nipping at populist parties, and continental creativity on display via the Innovator Awards.

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Further Listening

• [15:07] – Next week’s “Weekender” will feature Anne McElvoy and Peter Snowden interviewing Estonia’s Defense Minister ahead of the NATO summit, offering deeper analysis of Ukraine’s evolving position.

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For more insights or to participate in the merch giveaway, listeners are encouraged to check the show notes for contact information.

Transcript

[A]

Today's episode is brought to you by Salesforce. Salesforce is the world's number one AI CRM, helping businesses and governments of every size connect with the people they serve. From sales to service to citizen engagement and mission support, Salesforce@Genic AI works autonomously to power the world's most innovative companies, agencies and institutions, keeping humans in the driver's seat. Learn [e-mail] EU Good morning.

[B]

It's Thursday, July 2nd, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is urgent as Ukraine tells Europe it has a rare advantage over Russia, but it needs its allies to move faster to sustain it. Also on the pod, Jordan Bardella's former European Parliament group is caught up in fresh raids over alleged misuse of of EU funds and better oat milk, life saving worms or levitating trains. Which invention will take one of Europe's top prizes today? I'm Zoya Sheftalovich and with me today is one of our policy editors, Sarah Wheaton. Hey, Sarah.

[C]

Hey, Zoya.

[B]

I like the sound of these life

[C]

saving worms better than the other kind of worms.

[B]

All right, Sarah, let's get to our first story of the day. You might have seen some pictures doing the rounds on social media of Russians queuing for petrol. Over the past few weeks. These things have been going around on telegram, on Facebook, on YouTube. And it's really interesting because now that is hitting Moscow and what's been happening is basically the Russians are running out of oil as a result of Ukraine's very, very significant strikes into Russian territory.

[C]

We but this is one of the world's like biggest oil producers. How is that even possible?

[B]

Well, this is the irony here is that it's not that they don't have enough oil and it's that the Ukrainians have been taking out the facilities where that oil is refined and so they just can't get it out of the ground and convert it into fuel. So it's quite an astonishing turnaround of fortunes for the Russians, certainly when it comes to being able to fuel things. And you can see, you know, hour long queues in some parts of Russia, trucks that are backed up miles long because they're not able to fill up. And this is particularly critical because Russia is about to enter its wheat sowing season and if they can't get enough diesel for the tractors, then they're in trouble. Although I should hasten to say that they do seem to be redirecting the diesel to the tractors. So it seems like that's not such a big problem at the moment. But still, it's bad enough that Putin did have to address the shortage, though he insisted it's temporary and it's not critical.

[C]

Of course, of course, of course. I mean, but it's hard to take that seriously when you look at the actual numbers though, because around a quarter of Russia's refining capacity has been fully or partly knocked offline by these Ukrainian and attacks. That affects more than 30% of gasoline and around 25% of Russia's diesel.

[B]

Yeah, this is a huge hit for Putin and that is definitely something that is being felt at the moment. And for months, you know, we've been hearing from EU officials telling us that actually these sanctions, the EU has implemented 20 rounds of sanctions. They're working on the 21st, actually right now these sanctions are working is what the EU has been telling us. And certainly it looks like from, from the signs of things coming out of Russia. Although of course it's very difficult to know what's actually happening because they don't really allow journalists in there. But signs point to the system really significantly being hampered by Ukraine, by these deep strikes that they've finally been able to do.

[C]

Yeah, And Crimea is now turning from, you know, this prize that Russia stole for itself in 2014 to a real strategic problem. Ukrainian strikes there are damaging bridges and the supply routes needed to connect Crimea with Russian held southern Ukraine. That has led to suspension of sales at public petrol stations, fuel rationing. Basically, Ukraine is trying to make Crimea harder and more expensive for Russia to supply and defend.

[B]

Yeah, and basically the plan here from Ukraine is to increase the pressure on Russia because the goal for Ukraine is to bring Putin to the negotiating table and they really want to ensure that when those talks begin, they are in as good a position as they possibly can be to so that Putin cannot make his maximalist demands and have Donald Trump potentially back him up in those. So they want to look like winners and they want to make it seem and make it apparent that they can really affect Russia. So Putin had better do a deal. And actually, one of our colleagues, Veronika Melchizedeva, has spoken with Ukraine's Defense Minister, Mikhailov Fyodorov, and he said Ukraine currently has an advantage, it has the initiative. And these strikes are really affecting supply lines, logistics behind the front lines, et cetera. Russian advances are slowing, Ukraine is retaking territory. And his message is, let's go back us to the full hilt and we can finish this.

[C]

Yeah, he's saying, look, now's the time to bet on a winner. He wants more financing for drones, missiles, interceptors and Ukrainian production. He's saying that if they get enough resources that could potentially buy another six months before Russia adapts. And he's saying, look, let's cut out dated contracts, finance what's working now, and help Ukraine kind of get to this next step.

[B]

And the interesting thing is, Sarah, because, you know, I was reading this interview that Veronica did and I've been doing my own reporting on this. I was in Poland at the Ukraine recovery Conference in Gdansk last week.

[C]

And thank you for coming back, by the way. I know you had such a good time that you kind of just wanted to stay there.

[B]

I did, I did. It was too beautiful a city and not as hot as Brussels. But the reporting that I was picking up was very similar. It was that, well, firstly there was a little bit of like the Ukrainians being like, hey, we told you so. If you had given us this capacity earlier, if you had given us this weaponry earlier, if you had allowed us to do deep strikes into Russia rather than escalating the situation, we would have de escalated by escalating. That was kind of the argument that I was hearing on the ground. And certainly that's what Fedorov was saying as well. But the second thing that they're saying is like there is a NATO summit that's kicking off an Ankara in just about a week. It's on July 7th and Zelensky is going to be there on the sidelines. Trump is expected to attend, although no one ever knows with Trump, of course. But the point is that European allies are shouldering a lot. In fact, almost all of the like necessary kind of financial hit from supporting Ukraine. And basically Zelensky and Ukraine want to go into this summit looking like winners, looking like Donald Trump had better say swing round and back Kyiv because they're going to be the guys who are winning this thing. Sarah, for our second story today, let's talk about alleged misspending of EU funds.

[C]

I love a good scandal.

[B]

Absolutely. This is a story that our audience has heard before. We've talked about this kind of stuff earlier in this podcast earlier this year. And it something that is affecting the National Rally, France's far right party. That's the party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. And on Tuesday that party was targeted by raids in France.

[C]

Yeah, this was following suspicions of misappropriation of European funds by the now defunct Identity and Democracy political group of the European Parliament. And that's this far right group that the National Rally was a member of during the 2019-2024 parliament, basically, the European Public Prosecutor's Office is saying that across four countries. So not just.

[B]

Not just France.

[C]

Yeah, not just France. But also affecting Germany, where there is the alternative for Germany and Italy's league. And, yeah, there's worry that public money went to kind of campaign activities that it wasn't supposed to.

[B]

Yeah, this is just a classic case. So this is actually this investigation. The formal investigation was announced in July 2025 by the EU's prosecutor, and that was after there was a parliamentary report which revealed that identity and democracy was suspected of having misspent 4.3 million euros in that previous term that you mentioned, 2019 to 2024. And we should say, by the way, that this group is now defunct. It stopped existing in 2024 when the last EU election happened, and there's a new group that has replaced it. And so that's kind of where the question is. And so the allegations are that the ID group has actually gone against public tender rules and given sweetheart deals to companies that were friendly to the far right party.

[C]

But this is now where it's going to be kind of confusing about how assuming wrongdoing is determined, how anybody is held accountable, because, you know, ID no longer exists, as we said. Instead, it's been succeeded by the Patriots for Europe group, you know, the political grouping founded by Hungary's Viktor Orban. The National Rally is now part of that political family. And, you know, of course, we should know, you know, when these allegations were first made public last year, that those involved denied any wrongdoing.

[B]

Yeah. But in any case, this isn't the first time that the National Rally has been in hot water over allegations of misspent EU funding. And you'll remember that early last year, Maureen Le Pen was actually barred from running for president for the next five years because of embezzlement of EU funding, charges that she was found guilty of. So this is kind of an echo of this. But the interesting thing is, is that that was Maureen Le Pen. She's in trouble. And actually, the court case that we're waiting on is going to land on July 7th, and we'll find out if Marine Le Pen can actually run for the French election, because she's appealing. But this thing affects Jordan Bardella, who was the presumptive Plan B candidate of the French far right. So, I mean, that's pretty fascinating.

[C]

Yeah. But I mean, the other thing that I find fascinating is it's. It's unclear if this is ultimately going to affect the political prospects of Bardala. We spoke with French politics reporter Victor Gori Lafont. And he said that he doesn't see this case being likely to hurt the national rally. A considering that this Le Pen embezzlement case, you know, has already been out there and hasn't hurt the party's polling and.

[B]

Yeah, and like, from the perspective of the candidate himself, Bardella himself, like, any conviction is so long away that if he does actually get elected as president, he'll have immunity by then. So it's not going to actually prevent him from running in this election in the way Le Pen might be prevented.

[C]

Yeah. So, I mean, it will be interesting to see, you know, how the narratives kind of get. Get built out in the campaign. You know, we have seen that most French people don't buy this idea that there's a witch hunt and that that's an expl for why National Rally keeps getting tied up in the same investigation over and over and over again. And Victor also noted that polling shows most French voters, including national rally voters, are supportive of the fact that the courts are really looking at these politicians.

[B]

Fascinating. Well, we've got a super interesting week ahead in French politics. All right, Sarah. Well, third story of the day. Some of Europe's most inventive minds are gathering in Berlin and they're going to be finding out who's going to get the European Inventor Award. It's been organized by the European Patent Office and it's been running since 2006.

[C]

Yeah. And I mean, some of these things really just hit home. Literally what we have in our own refrigerator is like, I have been kind of swapping out dairy milk with oat drink, as it legally has to be called in the EU and the, like, barista kind of thicker cappuccino friendly edition. Turns out the process behind making that was invented by Greek Swedish scientist Angeliki Triantafilu. You know, so in the past, you know, oat drink, you know, would be kind of grainy and separate when it was heated, but her work helped make that kind of thicker, creamier thing that we like in our flat whites.

[B]

Well, there was also a fun finalist, marine worms. They don't sound that great to me, but still super interesting. So it's a French scientist, Frank Zell, who studied worms that survive for hours under sand without oxygen. And basically, they've got some super secret sweet hemoglobin in their system that carries really large amounts of oxygen. So he's turning that into something that can help keep human organs alive while they're being transported for transplant.

[C]

So they will worm their Way into our hearts.

[B]

Yeah, literally. I love it. I am here for these puns. There's also just quickly a Polish invention which kind of sounds like science fiction, but it's already partly in use. It's a team at Nivomo which has developed a mag rail, which is basically a thing where it adds magnetic propulsion to railway lines, and that allows freight wagons to move automatically without a locomotive. And also there's a second version which is even more interesting, more futuristic. Basically, it involves these trains that levitate above existing railway tracks and with less friction, it means they can travel super, super fast. Super interesting.

[C]

Yeah. I mean, maybe that would help also with these sleeper cars. Like, the rocking actually prevents me from actually being able to sleep in slee trains, but if it's just floating along, there might be a smoother ride. So let's see. The winners will be announced in Berlin later today. They don't get a giant, giant check. They get a trophy and the prestige, the honor of being recognized by the European patent Office.

[B]

And actually, I think our listeners can still vote for their favorite because the voting is still open. If you're listening Thursday morning, you can. You can go out and vote. Actually, folks, a call out. What's your favorite European invention? I'd love to hear from you out there. Mine's Halloumi. All right, Sarah, I did want to quickly take you back to the live event that we recorded on Tuesday night. It was our 100th episode. Do you have a nice time?

[C]

It was a great time.

[B]

It was a great time. Although we both have some complaints. Some notes. Yeah, what's yours?

[C]

It was almost perfect, but one. One complaint. So we had some nice snacks at the end, some good guacamole and other dips, and I was just about to help myself when I noticed a guest. I don't know their name, don't know anything about this person except that they were double dipping. They took a bite of bread and then dunked it in the communal guacamole

[B]

and say it ain't so. Say it ain't so. Well, folks, here's a psa, a public service announcement for our listeners. Stop double dipping, whoever you are out there. Not.

[C]

Okay.

[B]

You might be a friend of the pod, but we're friends of single dips. My note is, you'd never believe it, Sarah, but people were being really shy about taking the merch. So we've got some leftover merch.

[C]

Oh, nice. Okay. I was like, I thought, you know, I thought it was going to run out really fast.

[B]

Yeah, we've got little tote bags. We had mugs, but they've all flown off the shelf.

[C]

Okay. All right.

[B]

But we still have some tote bags and some stickers.

[C]

Can never have enough tote bags.

[B]

Genuinely the most useful merch you can get, I reckon. Well, listeners out there, if you, if you want one, you can write in because we've got five of them to give away to our listeners. So send us a short video telling us about what you like about the podcast, how you found us when you listen, what keeps you coming back and what your favorite story is. And we'll pick five of our favorites and send you a little package.

[C]

Keep it short, 30 seconds, keep personal and send it to us on our WhatsApp number. The link is, of course, in the show notes, as per usual.

[B]

All right, folks, before we go, what's happening on the Weekender?

[C]

Well, Zoya, actually, you mentioned that next week is this really key NATO summit for Ukraine, and the episode is devoted to that. So Anne McElvoy and Peter Snowden, our colleagues, talk to Estonia's defense minister, Hannu Pepker, and we'll hear from others about what to expect.

[B]

Wow, that sounds good. That's about it from me for the week, folks, and I'll speak to you next. Foreign.

[A]

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