Brussels Playbook Podcast: "High price to pay: EU and UN wrestle with Middle East war"
Date: March 20, 2026
Host: Sarah Wheaton (POLITICO)
Guests: Zoya Sheftalovich (Chief EU Correspondent), Nick Vinoker (Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent), Zia Weissa (Senior Climate Reporter), Anne McElvoy (Interviewer), Antonio Guterres (UN Secretary General)
Overview: Episode Theme & Purpose
This episode dives into the disruption of the European Council summit as the escalating war between the US/Israel and Iran overshadows the EU’s plans to focus on industrial competitiveness. The hosts and guests discuss the impact of the conflict on Europe: energy insecurity, internal political gridlock (with a focus on Viktor Orban’s Ukraine veto), and the limitations of both the EU and UN in responding to global crises. The episode features a notable interview with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, providing direct insight into the UN’s assessment of war crimes, global power dynamics, and the feasibility of peace in the Middle East.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Agenda Hijacked by Middle East War
[00:32-04:02]
- The EU summit intended to center on economic competitiveness.
- The Israel-Iran war (with American involvement) swiftly dominated discussions, pushing original priorities to the background.
- Trump’s foreign policy continues to dictate EU’s agenda, showcasing Europe’s vulnerability in global crises.
Memorable Quote:
“Once again, Donald Trump hijacked the agenda. This time it's the war he's waging on Iran alongside Israel. Europe isn't officially involved, but it sure is affected…”
— Sarah Wheaton, [00:32]
2. War Crimes and the UN’s Stance
[01:40-02:18; 25:10-26:20]
- UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres told the podcast that attacks on energy infrastructure by both Israel and Iran could constitute war crimes under international law.
- Guterres emphasizes the universality of humanitarian law, condemning any targeting of civilians or civilian infrastructure.
Notable Quotes:
“If there are attacks either on Iran or from Iran energy infrastructure, I think that there are reasonable grounds to think that they might constitute a war crime.”
— Antonio Guterres, [01:40]; repeated [25:33]
“Both sides? I don't see any difference… The targeting of civilians is totally unacceptable.”
— Antonio Guterres, [01:59]; repeated [26:00]
3. EU Response: Caught in a Bind
[04:02-06:36, 09:56-12:42]
- European leaders are divided over whether to support US efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, fearing the economic repercussions and possible US retaliation on Ukraine aid.
- Some EU states (5 mentioned) are considering contributing ships to a potential UN mission, not as direct support for US/Israeli action, but to secure vital trade routes.
- Hungary’s Viktor Orban blocks a critical €90 billion loan to Ukraine, exposing deep divisions and the recurring threat of single-member obstruction in EU decision-making.
Notable Quotes:
“In part, there is a fear that if the EU doesn't help out the US now, then Trump may retaliate and not help Ukraine.”
— Zoya Sheftalovich, [05:04]
“He wanted to make this a political point for his election campaign ahead of that April 12 election… Within like 90 minutes, [EU leaders] realized he wasn't going to be budging.”
— Zoya Sheftalovich, [06:36]
4. Hungary’s Veto & The EU’s Internal Crisis
[06:36-09:23]
- Orban’s obstructionism frays the last threads of EU consensus.
- Talks of consequences (from Article 7, which could suspend Hungary’s voting rights, to cutting funds) are intensifying, though effective action is far from certain.
Notable Quote:
“Everything we heard... is that the tone around the table was harsher and more confrontational than it ever has been before.”
— Nick Vinoker, [09:11]
5. The Energy Price Shock and Short-Term Dilemmas
[09:23-13:14]
- EU faces a second major energy supply shock in four years; this time, the loss of Qatari gas is raising prices even beyond supply shortfalls.
- Fierce debate over weakening the Emissions Trading System (ETS) to ease prices, versus protecting climate goals. No consensus—reform of ETS is kicked down the road.
- Relief measures mostly devolve to national governments (e.g., tax cuts, subsidies), as the European Commission promises only vague future proposals.
Memorable Quote:
“The real problem is that all of this is driving up prices... Renewables aren't a short-term fix, they're long term fix.”
— Zia Weissa, [09:56]
6. Crisis Leadership: Can the EU Cope?
[13:14-16:46]
- Council President Antonio Costa’s personal diplomacy is seen as ineffective against Hungary’s obstruction.
- Ursula von der Leyen criticized for overreach but is defended as the only leader actively trying to fill the EU’s leadership vacuum as German and French leaders are weakened.
Notable Quotes:
“No one else is doing it. Someone's got to take charge. And so she [von der Leyen] stepped into that void.”
— Zoya Sheftalovich, [15:41]
7. What’s Next?
[16:46-18:38]
- All eyes on the Hungarian election (April 12) and the next European Council summit in Cyprus. If Orban persists, the EU’s ability to enforce red lines will be tested.
- Concern about declining US attention to Ukraine as Trump’s focus is absorbed by the Iran conflict, making EU initiative more critical.
Notable Quotes:
“If [Orban] comes back to that next European Council summit... and the EU does nothing, then that's going to be a huge, huge tell about its powerlessness.”
— Zoya Shevtalovich, [17:41]
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres: In-Depth Interview
[19:04-34:06]
The War’s Dynamics & Pathways to Peace
[19:35-23:50]
- Guterres’s bleak assessment: Israel pursues regime change in Iran; Iran seeks global disruption. Only US intervention can halt the bloodshed.
- Guterres admits to no direct contact with Trump but emphasizes the urgency: “The biggest beneficiary of this war is Russia,” as attention shifts from Ukraine.
Notable Quotes:
“The key to solve the problem is in the US... The war is, my deep belief, needs to stop and I believe that it is in the hands of the US to make it stop.”
— Antonio Guterres, [20:09]
“This is indeed spiraling out of control. And the recent attacks represent an escalation…”
— Antonio Guterres, [22:32]
War Crimes & Humanitarian Concerns
[25:10-26:20]
- Restates that attacks on energy infrastructure may constitute war crimes.
- “Targeting civilians is totally unacceptable... civilian infrastructure like this one is also extremely, extremely serious.”
UN’s Role: Constrained but Proactive
[26:20-29:18]
- UN seeks to broker access through the Strait of Hormuz, drawing on experience with Black Sea grain initiative, but “very difficult if the war doesn't stop.”
- Calls for an end to the war as a precondition for safe passage and broader regional stability.
Memorable Quote:
“Our priority, the absolute priority, is to stop the war and create conditions for the straits to be open…”
— Antonio Guterres, [28:02]
On European and Global Responses
[29:18-31:23]
- Guterres skeptical that additional military force in the region solves anything; trust, not firepower, will restore shipping confidence.
- Supports European powers’ restraint in direct military involvement.
“I'm not convinced that it is the number of warships in the strait that solves the problem... It's a matter of having or not a war environment in which an accident can happen at any moment.”
— Antonio Guterres, [30:00]
On International Law & Multilateralism
[32:13-34:06]
- Guterres asserts a strong commitment among EU leaders to international law and multilateralism, despite differing nuances in public statements.
- Advocates for a multipolar, networked world: “We cannot live under... one single power... We need a multipolar, multipolar networked world...”
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Europe’s agenda being repeatedly derailed:
“This is sort of a pattern where effectively it's Donald Trump setting the agenda...”
— Nick Vinoker, [04:02] -
On Hungary’s veto:
“The council cannot be blackmailed.”
— Sarah Wheaton paraphrasing Council President Antonio Costa, [09:23] -
On energy strategy:
“Renewables aren't a short term fix, they're long term fix.”
— Zia Weissa, [09:56] -
On the limits of crisis diplomacy:
“No one else is doing it. Someone's got to take charge...”
— Zoya Shevtalovich, [15:41] -
On the dire need for peace:
“The drama is, it's not only the question of the capacity or not to destroy a ship... If a drone explodes close to a ship... it's very difficult to make things move.”
— Antonio Guterres, [28:02]
Key Timestamps (MM:SS)
- [00:32] – Opening: EU Council agenda overtaken by Trump’s Iran war
- [01:40] – Guterres: Strikes on energy infrastructure = potential war crimes
- [04:02] – EU under Trump’s agenda
- [06:36-09:23] – Breakdowns over Hungary’s Ukraine veto
- [09:56-12:42] – Energy price shock and emissions trading debate
- [13:14] – Assessment of EU leadership and crisis response
- [16:46-18:38] – What to watch next: Hungarian election, EU’s red lines
- [19:04-34:06] – Anne McElvoy’s in-depth interview with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres
Takeaways
- The EU remains caught between external global shocks and internal divisions, unable to set or maintain its own agenda.
- The war in Iran not only threatens energy security but exposes the impotence of international institutions (EU, UN) in restraining superpower conflict.
- Guterres’ interview highlights the constraints on the UN and the grave risk of escalation, urging de-escalation and peace as the only path to stability.
- The coming weeks will test Europe’s unity, its ability to discipline internal obstruction (Hungary), and its capacity to act independently as American attention drifts elsewhere.