Brussels Playbook Podcast — “How Europe Survives When There Are No Rules”

Date: March 6, 2026
Host: Sarah Wheaton
Guests: Mark Leonard (Director, European Council on Foreign Relations), Reem Momtaz (Editor-in-Chief, Strategic Europe at Carnegie Europe)

Episode Overview

This episode confronts the collapse of the “rules-based order” and the rise of a more chaotic global system — what guest Mark Leonard calls an age of “unorder.” The discussion explores what this means for European foreign policy and security, particularly in the context of the escalating war involving Iran, and examines whether the EU can still play an effective role on the geopolitical stage. The conversation touches on energy crises, shifting alliances, old versus new global power dynamics, and the philosophical challenge of adapting Europe’s role for an age where foundational rules no longer apply.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Collapse of the Rules-Based Order

• Thematic Introduction

  • The so-called “rules-based order” is rapidly becoming irrelevant, replaced by a state of “unorder” where power, rather than shared norms or laws, dictates outcomes.
  • “Europe, the ultimate rules-based system, has been trying to position itself as the last arbiter… our guest today argues it's time to let it go.” (01:09, Sarah Wheaton)

• The View from India and the Middle East

  • Mark Leonard describes the palpable absence of international delegates at India’s Raisina Dialogue as a metaphor for leadership and “sanity” missing in global politics.
  • “A thousand people who are meant to be here…are not here, which is a metaphor for the absence of sanity and political leadership going on in global politics at the moment.” (02:33, Mark Leonard)
  • Conflicts bleed into one another, impacting both local livelihoods and the structure of global systems.

2. Defining “Unorder”

• Distinguishing from “Disorder”
  • “Disorder…implies that there is an order that people agree on. …Unorder is what happens when that order gets overtaken by events. There aren’t clear rules which people agree with.” (03:52, Mark Leonard)
  • Even basic facts are up for debate; former dominant powers (like the US) are unwilling to abide by rules they previously set.

3. The Iran War and Its Global Ripples

• Weaponization of Interconnection
  • It’s not just about military conflict — economic, informational, and infrastructural links are being weaponized.
  • “A lot of the infrastructure of globalization is being turned into battlefields…within a few minutes…billions of people around the world are being affected.” (06:06, Mark Leonard)
• Energy and Economic Fallout
  • “Qatar…has shut down its LNG production. …European gas prices doubled.” (09:37, Reem Momtaz)
  • The US can ride out shortages; Europe is highly vulnerable.

4. The Architects vs. Artisans Framework

• Defining the Terms

  • Architects: Countries that seek to build or preserve a system based on rules and ideals — traditionally US/Europe.
  • Artisans: Countries that pragmatically adapt, improvise, and profit from chaos — typified by China.
  • “During the period of modernity, the architects did really well…but in this new period of unorder…this feels like a time for artisans.” (13:10, Mark Leonard)

• Implications for Europe

  • Europe must evolve from builder/preserver of systems (architect) to adaptive experimenter (artisan).
  • “Make yourself more flexible, more resilient. You try things out, see if they work. ...You come up with makeshift solutions to get through the next few days.” (13:39, Mark Leonard)
  • Notable example: China’s transformation in green tech and infrastructure, embracing risk/failure en route to success (“BYD” story, 14:40).

5. Can Europe Stay True to Its Values?

• Cultural and Value Challenges

  • “We can preserve [values] in our own societies…But the energy needs to go into preserving those values in our own space...It's going to be a much more fragmented world.” (15:24, Mark Leonard)
  • The period of attempting to evangelize or universalize European values abroad is over; Europe must focus on internal coherence and resilience.

• Limits of EU Power

  • Reem Momtaz: “I don't think the EU can be an architect when it comes to global geopolitics anymore…the EU can be a shaper when it comes to issues like AI regulation, the environment…But when it comes to war and peace, the EU has never been an architect or a shaper, and it's not about to be.” (16:36)

6. Double Standards & Europe’s Dilemma

• Merz’s Controversial Statement

  • Friedrich Merz (German political leader) argued Europe shouldn’t “lecture” the US/Israel over international law.
  • Reem Momtaz warns this exposes Europe’s double standard: “Now, clearly, very explicitly, you have…[a] leading leader in the EU saying international law does not apply when we don’t like one of the countries.” (19:18)
  • This undermines Europe’s credibility when seeking support against Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

• Strategic Frustrations and Submission

  • The US acts without consulting or protecting European allies, yet Europe remains diplomatically passive.
  • “If this isn't enough for the Europeans to understand that they need to do much more for themselves…and much less…brown-nosing with this president in the White House, then the EU does not deserve to be seen as a geopolitical power.” (21:38, Reem Momtaz)

7. European Leadership: Macron’s Response

• Subtle Realignment
  • Macron, nuanced in his response, recognizes the complexity (“there’s no good actor here”), but now pushes for European leadership in safeguarding shipping lanes and energy supplies.
  • “He didn’t try to condemn it because he knows it’s useless...there’s no good actor here. The whole situation is bad.” (22:22, Reem Momtaz)
  • Urgency in preserving supply chains, as disruptions mirror “Covid days.” (23:10, Reem Momtaz)

8. Is There Hope? Managing — or Mastering — the “Unorder”

• Realistic Expectations
  • Reem Momtaz: “The EU can't shape the outcome in a war like this…But…the EU and Europeans can play a role in the off ramps.” (24:13)
  • Mark Leonard is forward-looking:
    • “I’m actually really optimistic about European possibilities at the moment…It's a dangerous world out there, and we can just look at what’s happening in the Middle East and see that a lot of people’s livelihoods and lives are being turned upside down…But one of the big advantages we have in Europe are our abilities to work together. The European Union is the secret sauce…” (24:52–26:56)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Unorder is what happens when…there isn’t a sense of balanced relationships. There aren’t clear rules which people agree with.”
  — Mark Leonard (03:52)

• “A lot of the infrastructure of globalization is being turned into battlefields.”
  — Mark Leonard (06:56)

• “Qatar, one of the biggest providers of LNG…has shut down its LNG production. And that is a massive problem for Europe—European gas prices doubled.”
  — Reem Momtaz (09:37)

• “This feels like a time for artisans.”
  — Mark Leonard (13:10)

• “We can preserve [European values] in our own societies…but energy needs to go into preserving those values in our own space.”
  — Mark Leonard (15:24)

• "The EU can be a shaper when it comes to issues like AI regulation, environment…But when it comes to war and peace, the EU has never been an architect or shaper, and it's not about to be."
  — Reem Momtaz (16:36)

• “Now…you have a leading…leader in the EU saying international law does not apply when we don't like one of the countries…accusations of double standards fully stand.”
  — Reem Momtaz (19:18)

• “Freeze yourself in aspic” [laughs] — Mark Leonard’s metaphor for Europe’s inability to change, now giving way to creative adaptation (27:02)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:16 – Opening reflections: Is the rules-based order finished?
• 02:27 – Mark Leonard’s report from Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi
• 03:52 – Defining “unorder” and foundational changes in global power
• 06:06 – The Iran war: weaponizing global interconnections
• 07:50 – Reem Momtaz on Ukraine war, missile shortages, and energy impact
• 10:30 – Architects vs. artisans: Mark Leonard’s theory
• 13:34 – What would an “artisan” Europe look like?
• 15:24 – Preserving European values in a fragmented world
• 18:09 – Pierre Vimond’s critique of Europe’s muted reaction to Iran war
• 18:42–21:38 – Merz’s remarks, double standards, and EU’s limits
• 22:06–24:00 – Macron’s approach: nuance, no “good actors,” push for European coordination on shipping routes
• 24:13 – Final thoughts: Can the EU only survive, or does it have opportunities to shape events?
• 24:52 – The European Union as “secret sauce” for managing chaos

Conclusion

This concise but far-reaching episode tackles Europe’s existential crisis as the world order unravels. Mark Leonard’s “artisans vs. architects” framework sharply contrasts Europe’s legacy of system-building with the nimble, experimental approach needed now. Reem Momtaz’s commentary reveals both the geopolitical constraints and the urgent accountability gaps at the EU’s core. Ultimately, while global power shifts leave Europe more exposed, both guests find ways for Europeans to adapt, survive, and perhaps thrive — if they abandon nostalgia and cultivate resilience and pragmatic cooperation.