EU Confidential: “How to Lose a Dutch Election — and Still Win One”
POLITICO Europe | October 31, 2025
Host: Sarah Wheaton
Overview
This episode of EU Confidential dives into the surprising and messy aftermath of the 2025 Dutch parliamentary elections. With no clear majority, centrist D66 and far-right PVV (Party for Freedom) emerged nearly tied — yet both parties are the “smallest biggest party” in decades. The discussion explores the meaning of victory and defeat in such a fragmented field, the collapse of hopes for a left resurgence under Frans Timmermans, and the implications for Dutch and broader European politics. The episode also takes a look at the fate of socialists in Brussels and the recent Irish presidential election, offering a rounded perspective on the fortunes of Europe’s political left.
Dutch Election: A Night of Unexpected “Winners” and “Losers”
Fragmentation and the “Smallest Biggest Party”
- D66, led by Rob Jetten, and Geert Wilders’ PVV are neck-and-neck in the vote count, with only 2,000 votes between them — an unprecedentedly small gap.
- “Whoever comes in first… will be the smallest biggest party since the Second World War.” — Sarah Wheaton, [00:33]
- Both parties have historically low seat counts for a winner; Wilders’ PVV lost a third of its seats despite competitive vote share.
Dramatic Upheaval for the Left
- Frans Timmermans and his Green-Left/Labour alliance suffered a “crushing defeat.”
- “People on the ground… just fell silent after the first exit poll appeared on the screens.” — Eva Hartog, [04:58]
- Timmermans immediately resigned as party leader following poor results.
The Wilders Paradox
- Wilders’ reputation as both “winner and loser”: He lost seats but has enough visibility to claim a central role as opposition leader.
- “With Wilders, I actually put him in a loser-winner category, which doesn’t really exist because he’s both a loser and a winner.” — Eva Hartog, [11:42]
- Wilders reframed defeat as a beginning, vowing to be “the biggest enemy” of a possible Jetten government.
Main Issues and Campaign Dynamics
- No single dominant campaign issue.
- “If I had to pick one, actually it was a bit of a meta issue, which was good governance.” — Eva Hartog, [07:21]
- Migration, housing, health, and climate discussed but overshadowed by a call for political stability, consensus, and an end to previous right-wing government “drama.”
Notable Personality: Rob Jetten
- Youngest possible PM since WWII, openly gay and resolutely pro-EU.
- Framed himself as the “anti-Wilders” and even borrowed Obama’s “Yes We Can” slogan (in Dutch).
- Pledged “10 new cities” to tackle housing crisis.
- “He’s very ambitious, very progressive and very pro-EU.” — Eva Hartog, [09:02]
Other Party Reactions
- Mark Rutte’s VVD lost only 1-2 seats, eliciting surprisingly positive cheers from supporters, who expected worse after governing with Wilders.
- “Expectations were so low that the result… is actually a pretty good result.” — Eva Hartog, [09:55]
Coalition Chaos: What Happens Next?
The Complicated Dutch System
- Forming a government will take months; the largest party leads talks, but must achieve a 75-seat majority.
- Obvious centrist coalition faces hurdles as traditional parties (VVD) have ruled out alliances with the left.
- “The Netherlands, a country where even the center is divided.” — Sarah Wheaton, [15:26]
Implications for the EU
- If Jetten prevails, expect a more visible, engaged Netherlands in Brussels.
- “His ambition is to return to the good old days and make the Netherlands relevant again.” — Eva Hartog, [15:52]
Personal Reflection on Democracy
- Eva Hartog reflects on the unpredictability and “wonderful experience” of covering a genuinely open Dutch election after years reporting on Russian autocracy.
- “Looking at a screen and having no idea who would come out as the winner… this was my experience of what a democracy looks like.” — Eva Hartog, [16:55]
The Left Falters: Aftermath in Brussels and Ireland
The Frans Timmermans Disappointment
- European socialists were “opening champagne bottles” in hope, only to be deeply shocked by Timmermans’s defeat.
- “These hopes that Timmermans… would have a big comeback… have not materialized.” — Max Guerra, [18:22]
Spotlight: Roxana Minzatu, Executive Vice President, European Commission
- Seen as less influential than predecessors.
- “She has a very long title and it seems she has a lot of competences. But actually… a lot of initiatives she does are rather to guide member states. They’re not binding.” — Max Guerra, [21:04]
- Noted for her behind-the-scenes defense of the European Social Fund and forthcoming work on recognition of diplomas for cross-border employment.
Ireland: A Socialist Win That Changes Little
Catherine Connolly’s Landslide
- Independent socialist Catherine Connolly won the Irish presidency with 63% amid a bizarre two-candidate contest.
- Opposition to her on the left was absent—five left parties united behind her.
- Presidential role is mostly ceremonial.
- “If you think about the King or Queen of England, that’s actually a pretty good comparator.” — Sean Pogatchnik, [29:52]
- No policy power; can only refer legislation to Supreme Court in rare cases.
Right-wing Frustration, Spoiled Ballots
- Far-right and conservative voters had “no one to vote for” and organized to spoil one in eight ballots.
- “Roughly one in eight ballots were spoiled. And that simply never happened in an Irish election before.” — Sean Pogatchnik, [27:46]
Impact on Irish Politics
- Connolly’s win signals continuity more than change — unlikely to shift Ireland’s overall political direction left.
- “It’s very hard to form a government without Fianna Fail or Fine Gael or now both.” — Sean Pogatchnik, [30:56]
- Fallout from the failed Fianna Fail candidacy may endanger Prime Minister Micheál Martin’s leadership.
Memorable Quotes
- “Whoever comes in first… will be the smallest biggest party since the Second World War.” — Sarah Wheaton, [00:33]
- “At the election Watch party just fell silent after the first exit poll appeared… no one had expected this.” — Eva Hartog, [04:58]
- “He [Wilders] already cast himself as… the main opposition leader, which is what he does best.” — Eva Hartog, [12:29]
- “Looking at a screen and having no idea who would come out as the winner… this was my experience of what a democracy looks like.” — Eva Hartog, [16:55]
- “Roughly one in eight ballots were spoiled. And that simply never happened in an Irish election before.” — Sean Pogatchnik, [27:46]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [00:00] Dutch election: Fragmentation, confused victory, main parties
- [03:25] Eva Hartog explains results and the centrist/far-right battle
- [04:44] Collapse of the left and Timmermans’ resignation
- [06:36] Campaign themes: good governance and consensus
- [08:05] Rob Jetten’s profile and vision
- [09:22] VVD’s surprising relief at modest losses
- [11:42] “Winner-loser” status of Wilders described
- [13:57] Coalition math and post-election calculations
- [15:42] Potential EU impact if Jetten becomes PM
- [16:55] Eva Hartog’s reflection on democratic elections vs authoritarian ones
- [18:22] Socialist reaction to Timmermans’ defeat, disappointment in Brussels
- [19:56] Roxana Minzatu’s profile and limited influence
- [24:52] Ireland: Catherine Connolly’s landslide explained
- [27:46] Far-right frustration, spoiled ballots in Ireland
- [30:56] Irish presidency’s limits, impact on parties
Conclusion
The Dutch election, far from yielding a clear winner, produced a muddled outcome emblematic of the Netherlands’ increasing political fragmentation. While the centrist D66 celebrates an unprecedented victory, the far-right PVV and left-wing Timmermans both emerge battered. The episode highlights the challenges of coalition-building and the declining influence of European socialists, with only isolated bright spots like Ireland’s (mostly symbolic) left-wing presidential victory. For the Netherlands, coalition talks promise to be long and fraught, their outcome potentially reshaping the country’s stance in Europe. For listeners, the key lesson is uncertainty: in both democracy’s unpredictability and the shifting fortunes of European political currents.