EU Confidential – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Humiliating Europe: Trump’s culture war and the EU’s response
Date: October 3, 2025
Host: Sarah Wheaton, POLITICO Europe
Key Guests:

• Gabriel Gavin (POLITICO correspondent, Moldova coverage)
• Anna Shavit (Czech campaign expert, Charles University)
• Pawel Zerka (Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations)

Overview

In this episode, EU Confidential delves into how Donald Trump's presidency has shifted from transactional squabbles with Europe to waging a deliberate “culture war” that aims to polarize, humiliate, and weaken the EU as an autonomous power. Through expert interviews, POLITICO explores whether Europe has the tools, unity, or appetite to push back. The episode also provides on-the-ground insights from the landmark elections in Moldova and the Czech Republic—two key battlegrounds for Europe’s future orientation.

Segment 1: Moldova’s Crucial Election and the EU’s Enlargement Standstill

[01:14–09:31]

High-Stakes Vote – Moldova’s Decisive Pro-EU Turn

Key Points:

• Moldova’s governing pro-European Action and Solidarity party, led by President Maia Sandu, won more than 50% of the parliamentary vote, securing 55 out of 101 seats.
• The pro-Russian "Patriotic Bloc" received just 25%, showing the limited appeal of Soviet nostalgia or pro-Moscow policies.
• Despite significant Russian interference and local fears of escalation from the Ukraine war, most voters chose EU integration, seeking security and prosperity.

Notable Quotes:

• “You have a government that’s campaigned on the basis of trying to take the country into the European Union as a full-fledged member by 2030... and an opposition that said, well, actually no.”
  — Gabriel Gavin, [03:28]
• “They voted for prosperity and security by voting for a pro-EU government.”
  — Gabriel Gavin, [05:23]

Russia’s Influence and Voter Sentiment

• The country remains highly polarized, with misinformation painting Sandu as a “puppet of America.”
• Fears over war and identity are real, but the majority see their future tied to Europe, especially younger, well-traveled Moldovans.

EU Accession Blocked – Viktor Orbán’s Veto

• Moldova’s and Ukraine’s EU accession bids are “twinned.” Hungary’s PM Viktor Orbán threatens to block both.
• EU Council President Antonio Costa is spearheading behind-the-scenes discussions on changing the enlargement voting rules, possibly replacing unanimity with qualified majority—but most states are reluctant to give up vetoes.
• “No one, actually, very few capitals want to give up their veto because they know that … they might be on the wrong side of the argument.”
  — Gabriel Gavin, [08:52]

Segment 2: Czech Republic – Populism, Polarization, and the ‘Shovel Theory’

[09:39–22:34]

Tight Polls and Societal Angst

• The Czech Republic faces a polarized, dramatic parliamentary election with a third of voters undecided.
• The populist opposition ANO party, led by former PM Andrej Babiš (the “Czech Trump”), is poised to defeat the ruling Spolu coalition (PM Petr Fiala), but would struggle to form a majority.

Notable Quotes:

• “A lot of people think there will be some dramatic change … the whole atmosphere is rather polarized.”
  — Anna Shavit, [10:26]

Main Parties and the Fight for the Middle

• ANO and Babiš lead the opposition, promising pragmatic change, but lack clear coalition partners.
• Spolu is seen as slow on the campaign trail and faces criticism on domestic issues and cost-of-living concerns, despite having strong foreign-policy credentials.

Voter Concerns and Political Messaging

• Voters are split: some prioritize economic well-being; others, national direction (West/East, EU, NATO).
• The anti-migrant, anti-establishment Right is vocal despite low migrant presence.

Babiš’s Leadership Style – The “Shovel Theory”

• Babiš is viewed by Shavit as non-ideological, intensely hard-working, transactional—a doer, not a philosopher.
• His “shovel theory”: “The only successful leaders are those kids who take a shovel in the sandpit and they hit the other kids on their heads.”
  — Anna Shavit, [21:29]
• Babiš admires leaders who “get things done” (like Donald Trump), which unsettles consensus-driven Brussels.

Segment 3: Trump’s Culture War Against Europe – Interview with Pawel Zerka (ECFR)

[23:25–35:29]

The Culture War Frame

• The hallmark of Trump’s second term: targeting Europe’s values and identity, not just trade or NATO dues.
• Emphasis has shifted to “humiliating” Europe over migration, climate, and its own security, with surrogates like JD Vance lecturing EU leaders publicly.

Notable Quotes:

• “What Donald Trump’s America is doing is also questioning European values and Europe’s identity as an autonomous actor ... values and identity are part of a culture war.”
  — Pawel Zerka, [23:25]
• “The US president is exploiting any opportunity to humiliate Europe.”
  — Pawel Zerka, [25:02]
• “He’s riding the wave of the culture war, which has already been there.”
  — Pawel Zerka, [26:48]

US Interference in European Domestic Politics

• Trump and his administration have openly backed far-right or populist allies in Germany (AfD), Poland (Karl Nawrocki), and elsewhere.
• The pattern: boosting ideological allies to divide the EU and weaken coordinated European responses.

Optics, Dignity, and Policy Trauma

• Incidents—like European leaders accepting unfavorable trade deals or the NATO Secretary General calling Trump “Daddy”—are more than optics; they sap the EU’s credibility and self-confidence.
• “Europe gave a signal to the rest of the world that it accepts the world of ‘might is right’ rather than standing up for something more important.”
  — recounting Arancha Gonzalez’s analysis, [29:20]

Is Europe Fighting Back or Accommodating?

• Some leaders (e.g., Donald Tusk) express skepticism about Trump’s shifting messages on Ukraine, warning against complacency and the risk of confusing rhetoric for real support.
• Public opinion: Trust in the EU is the highest since 2007, and more Europeans want a Union that defends values and sovereignty.
• “There is an appetite … for a Europe that defends its values, its identity and dignity.”
  — Pawel Zerka, [33:37]

The Big Test and Ways Forward

• Ukraine is the EU’s “litmus test”—if Europe fails to step up should the US withdraw support, its claims to strategic autonomy will ring hollow.
• European leaders should shape narratives on peace and step up on digital policy—proving Europe can assert its will against both Washington and corporate America.
• “If Europeans were to allow Ukraine to lose the war just because US support … is no longer there, that would show … Europe as a security and geopolitical actor was nonsense.”
  — Pawel Zerka, [34:21]

Memorable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• “They voted for prosperity and security by voting for a pro-EU government.” — Gabriel Gavin on Moldova, [05:23]
• “No one, actually, very few capitals want to give up their veto … in the future, they might be on the wrong side of the argument.” — Gabriel Gavin on EU enlargement, [08:52]
• “This is his personal theory, is that the only successful leaders are those kids who take a shuffle in the sand pit and they hit the other kids on their heads. … So it’s very much survival oriented.” — Anna Shavit on Babiš’s “shovel theory,” [21:29]
• “What Donald Trump’s America is doing is also questioning European values and Europe’s identity as an autonomous actor … values and identity are part of a culture war.” — Pawel Zerka, [23:25]
• “He’s riding the wave of the culture war which has already been there.” — Pawel Zerka, [26:48]
• “The US president is exploiting any opportunity to humiliate Europe.” — Pawel Zerka, [25:02]
• “There is an appetite … for a Europe that defends its values, its identity and dignity.” — Pawel Zerka, [33:37]
• “If Europeans were to allow Ukraine to lose the war just because the US support … is no longer there, that would show … all that talk about Europe as a security and geopolitical actor was nonsense.” — Pawel Zerka, [34:21]

Key Takeaways

• Moldova and Czechia: Even under pressure from Russia and populists, European values still find support at the ballot box, but the path to EU enlargement is politically perilous.
• Trump’s Second Term: The strategy is less about deals and more about waging a culture war, aiming to humiliate, divide, and weaken Europe’s self-conception and autonomy.
• Within Europe: Populists adopt Trumpian styles, but a transactional, deal-making approach (as with Babiš) can unsettle more consensus-driven European institutions.
• How Europe Responds: There is both danger and opportunity; public appetite for a Europe that acts strategically is there, but without robust leadership and narrative, Europe risks permanent loss of standing and self-belief.

For listeners seeking to understand the stakes in EU-US relations and the internal political battles shaping Europe’s future, this episode delivers a nuanced, substantial analysis with first-hand insights from the front lines of European politics.