A (2:42)

Yeah, and the reason that was a mistake was because it was very soon Donald Twusk hadn't done the report.

B (2:48)

He hadn't done it.

A (2:48)

He hadn't done it. And the European Court of Justice came in and said, oh, hold on a second, I don't think so. Said, no, no, no, the commission did wrong by releasing this money early. So now there is a lot more caution about doing something like that.

B (3:00)

Exactly. Yeah. So now Budget Commissioner Pyotr Sarafin has told Politico that certain, quote, unquote, milestones will have to be fulfilled. I think there's something like 27 of them. They include reforming the procurement rules, increasing judicial independence and academic freedom. But Magyar is going to need 2/3 majority in order to push things through.

A (3:21)

Yeah. So he'll need that 2/3 majority to remove Orban era loyalists. And that's like people who are, you know, lawyers, prosecutors, judges. Like, this is a pretty difficult path that he looks to tread, assuming he even wants to tread it. And of course, all this assumes is that he will actually win the election. And that is certainly not a guarantee, though. Our colleague Max Guerrero interviewed Peter Mackie Zai, who's the guy who ran against Orban in 2022 and lost. But he reckons that Magyar has a better chance than he did.

B (3:53)

Marquisai's situation is what's giving all of us caution ahead of this election. Because like Magyar, Markisai represented sort of a coalition of opposition parties and they all united behind him. And he was way ahead of the polls until pretty close to the end, and then he ended up losing pretty badly. But he says that Magyar has learned from his own defeat to do things a little bit better.

A (4:18)

Yeah, that's right. And there are a few things that he tells Max that he reckons Magyar has done. So some of those things are, firstly, first and foremost, Magyar is a former Fidesh insider. And so he's come in and he's deployed Viktor Orban's party's own tactics against Viktor Orban. So some of those tactics involve being super kind of hardcore. He's come out swinging. He's not taking a position on Ukraine, which is a divisive issue on the campaign trail. He's sort of saying, look, I'm going to keep a lot of the issues that are quite popular among the Hungarian electorate. I'm going to keep the line on those. And he's coming in and saying, I'm going to unlock this EU funding. So he's really fighting very hard. We saw in the campaign various moments over the course of the last few months where, you know, he anticipated the release of this potential tape with compromising material that he might be on and played that on the offense. So he's really coming out swinging. And what Maki Zai says is, you know, that is how you beat Orban. You have to beat him at his own game. Yeah.

B (5:19)

And the other big difference is sort of unlike Markizai, who led a coalition of different opposition parties, Magyar instead created this new party, Tisa, pretty much from scratch. And then he pressured all of these other opposition parties to just stand down. His followers sort of went on social media attacks and hounded down other opposition figures. And so he really is the only Orban alternative of like him or not.

A (5:45)

Yeah. And that kind of explains why Donald Trump and J.D. vance have been coming into this campaign in this late stage. Just a few days out from this election, we saw J.D. vance in, in Hungary on the stump for Orban getting Donald Trump on the phone. And that's not the only thing. So J.D. vance, he's actually spoken at the MCC in Budapest. That's that think tank that promotes nationalist, conservative, anti European views and gets its funding from Oban's government. But speaking of the MCC think tank, that is actually a great link to one of our colleagues, Mari Eccles story. So she's written about the way in which on the one hand you've got these populist maga funded think tanks that are doing great and on the other hand you've got a bunch of think tanks that are kind of pro eu, like the Friends of Europe who are seeing their funding from the European Commission cut due to these various new rules that have been implemented when it comes to funding. So that's a great one to read if you want more on this. Sarah, it wouldn't be Thursday if we weren't talking about Iran, Would it be any day? It wouldn't. Not this week. Certainly not this week. Well, not when you've got US President Donald Trump threatening to wipe out a civilization. Well, we have a two week ceasefire that's now in place. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared victory, though he did say that US forces are going to remain in the region. But all is not looking rosy.

B (7:06)

No, look, I mean the EU now is in this incredibly awkward situation where, again, they're just sort of reacting. So you have a lot of these countries, like France, Germany and the UK that said, hey, yeah, sure, we will help secure the Strait of Hormuz when the fighting stops. Well, the fighting has stopped at least for two weeks, so I guess they're maybe on the hook for that.

A (7:25)

Yeah, I think they probably are. And we saw a statement that came out of those countries yesterday after the ceasefire had been announced, saying, yeah, we know that we're going to be helping to secure this straight. But the problem is no one actually knows what that means. And, you know, there are some early positive signals. So we saw the price of oil going down pretty sharply. It went from $120 per barrel to around about like that 90, $92 mark. But that's still a lot higher than they were when they were $70 a barrel before this war began. There's just a lot of stuff going on. And what we're seeing is the hallmarks of yet another Donald Trump special surprise, which is where he throws a bunch of stuff at the wall and the EU picks up the tab for cleaning it.

B (8:07)

Yeah, I mean, this is sort of the argument about what has happened in Gaza. Also, he didn't start the war in Ukraine, but he is refusing to help. And the EU feels like they're kind of stuck dealing with this by themselves. So, on the one hand, you have Trump complaining that Europe or NATO didn't help, that they didn't just give him Greenland, they didn't help secure the Strait of Hormuz in advance, but now he's kind of leaving Europe, NATO members in a lurch and just saying, not my problem. There's even talk that he might start sort of a joint venture with Iran and Oman to charge money for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

A (8:44)

Yeah, I read some reports that it might be as high as just a wee bit, around that $2 million mark per ship. So that's going to be fun to pay for the consumers who have to buy the oil that's on those ships in the end. Our colleague Nick Vinegar has a great story out this morning. Basically looking at this pattern and the way in which the EU keeps having to pick up the tab for Donald Trump. And the irony, of course, is that he's the guy who likes to accuse the EU of not paying its bill for NATO and so forth. I guess he's getting the money out one way or another.

B (9:11)

I mean, you have to pay to join the port of peace. You have to pay to go through the Strait of Hormuz. So I suspect he can come up with other ways to make Europe pay.

A (9:20)

It sounds like a Netflix TV show. Reality TV show. How Trump Makes Europe pay. Sarah, you're from a country that famously doesn't do trains particularly well. Although I have spent many more nights on an Amtrak than I care to reveal. What's your train portfolio like?

B (9:42)

I'm actually pretty hardcore about trains. I've taken one from Brussels to Copenhagen. Also, you and I have hung out at Davos a few times, and one year I made the mistake of going all the way from Brussels to and from Davos on a train and I got stuck in Cologne, Germany and had Deutsche Bahn had to pay to drive me and six other people back in a van to Brussels. So that sort of soured me on that experience.

A (10:06)

But I'm not selling trains to me. Yeah, what I'm hearing is take a plane.

B (10:11)

I mean, the view through the mountains is really nice.

A (10:14)

Okay, well, listen, if you like that, and you are a young person in Europe, aged around about 18 right now, you too could be traveling on a train and for free. Did you know that, Sarah?

B (10:26)

I didn't, but it's just making me even more bitter about my middle age.

A (10:30)

Well, the European Commission has a contest on right now which is going to be giving away 40,000 free travel passes to 18 year olds across Europe. And they'll be able to get like up to 30 days of travel for free. Well, yeah.

B (10:42)

And so this competition involves some quizzes.

A (10:44)

Yeah, it's just like what we were talking. This is another. Yet another reality TV show. Why isn't Netflix coming to us for production advice?

B (10:50)

I mean, I think this is the Commission. Even. So, do you want to try Azoya? Should I quiz you?

A (10:55)

Yeah, quiz me.

B (10:56)

Okay, so what are the fundamental values of the eu? A, Peace, sports and culture. B, justice, empathy and cooperation. C, Human dignity, freedom, democracy.

A (11:09)

D, Great salaries.

B (11:11)

Okay, we'll allow it. We'll allow it.

A (11:14)

Okay. Actually, what is the answer?

B (11:16)

Human dignity, freedom and democracy.

A (11:17)

Well, that's pretty good. Those are very, very noble fundamental values. Well, folks, if you're out there and you've got a favorite train journey to recommend to me, you know, I don't think I've ever taken a long train ride in Europe. So please do recommend what I should do. Have you got a favorite trip you've taken? What's the furthest distance you've crossed Europe by train? Folks, send us a message. WhatsApp. The link is in our show notes. And while you're there, send us a rating, a review. Actually, I would love to read some new messages while I'm on a 28 and a half hour plane trip back to Australia tomorrow.

B (11:52)

Well, I actually have some entertainment suggestions while you're either riding a plane or a train.

A (11:57)

Go on.

B (11:58)

EU Confidential.

A (11:59)

Tell me what's on this week.

B (12:00)

Tomorrow we are going even deeper into the Hungarian election. We're checking in with a journalist former trainee of ours who has spent time speaking with people in the rural areas, the real key voters in the Hungarian election, the rural jurors, if you will. The rural jurors. And she has drilled into the TiSA strategy there and has some really fascinating insights that we just can't get from our perch here in Brussels.

A (12:25)

Well, remember to subscribe and if you do, you'll get that in your feed tomorrow.

B (12:29)

Safe travel, Zoya.

A (12:30)

Thanks, Sarah. I'll be back in a couple of weeks, folks. Don't forget me, Zoya.

B (12:34)

You are unforgettable.

A (12:40)

Sam.