Iran war: Europe weighs migration risk

Summary

Brussels Playbook Podcast — Episode Summary
Episode: Iran war: Europe weighs migration risk
Date: March 5, 2026
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich (POLITICO), with Sarah Wheaton

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Overview

This episode dissects the EU’s response to two converging crises: the fallout from the Iran war and its potential impact on migration, and the heated debate among member states over enlargement and the so-called "reverse enlargement" proposal, particularly regarding Ukraine. Zoya Sheftalovich, despite personal woes, is joined by Sarah Wheaton to deliver a quickfire breakdown of the political mood in Brussels, weaving in color, candid commentary, and key quotes from policymakers and experts.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Enlargement and "Reverse Enlargement" (00:34–06:08)

• What is "Reverse Enlargement"?
  • Zoya introduces the concept: “The idea with reverse enlargement is if you have completed a lot of the work that you needed to complete, but you haven’t quite finished… you can get access to some of the benefits of EU membership… Now, you might also get access to the single market in this idea, but you don’t have voting rights because you haven’t finished all of the processes.” (02:22)
• EU Divisions and Skepticism
  • Many member states, including Ukraine’s backers, worry that relaxing criteria undermines the significance of reforms: “We don’t want to lower the bar for EU entry, because the whole point of EU standards and EU reforms is that is how you get the benefits of EU membership.” (03:32)
• Accession Countries' Enthusiasm
  • Some candidate countries, per Sarah, show willingness to accept partial membership: “Yeah, cool, give us access to Schengen, give us access to the Common Market, we can deal with not being full members.” (03:13)
• Expert Perspective
  • Ivan Krastev, Bulgarian political scientist, argues that drawn-out accession breeds cynicism and suggests a more participatory approach for candidate nations: “If you have countries that are working to integrate with the EU for 30 years and they just still can’t make it, then that is going to induce cynicism.” (04:27)
• Need for Reform
  • EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos (via Zoya):

    “We have to have a broader discussion inside the European Union with the member states about the methodology of the accession process, which is not suitable anymore for the times we are living in... If we will not be able to integrate our candidates into the EU shortly, then there is a danger that someone else will be more influential in those countries and using them against us.” (05:28)

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2. Iran War and EU Response (06:08–10:43)

• Foreign Affairs Council—New Dynamics
  • EU foreign ministers meet (virtually) with Gulf ministers (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar), a shift from prior years:
    Sarah: “These are countries like Saudi Arabia, like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and many of these countries were essentially pariahs in the EU just a few years ago. But… they started inviting them back into the fold. There’s a need for their energy resources.” (07:08)
  • EU’s balancing act amid Iran’s threats against those aiding the US:
    Zoya: “The EU has been sort of steering clear of getting too closely involved… There is this balancing act with the EU not wanting to… be seen as being a party to the war… but also wanting to ensure that firstly, its citizens are safe, but also its interests are safe.” (08:07)
• Key Aims
  • “Express EU solidarity and work jointly towards de-escalation, safeguarding regional security and respect of international law.” (07:39, quoting EU External Action Service)
  • Repatriation and energy security are front and center.
• Migration Concerns Rise
  • Home affairs ministers meet to address the risk of a new migration crisis:
    Sarah: “Of course, Iran is looming large over the Home Affairs Ministers meeting… especially afraid that a lot of people will be fleeing the region due to renewed violence there.” (09:05)
  • Comparison to 2015’s Syrian crisis: The EU is focusing on ‘returns’ (deportations), with deals to send failed asylum seekers back to origin or transit countries.
    Zoya: “Currently there’s a big focus on the EU level at increasing the number of returns of failed asylum seekers… seen as a way of taking some of the sting out of far right attacks on them as being too soft.” (09:25)
• Pending Legislation & Controversy
  • European Parliament to vote on a tough new ‘returns law’:
    Sarah: “That proposal would be pretty harsh… would also give police broader powers to do things like raids on homes hosting undocumented migrants, which is giving some kind of ICE echoes.” (10:16)
  • No surge in arrivals yet but “certainly something that those ministers will be keeping an eye on.” (10:43)

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3. Intergenerational Fairness & AI in EU Policymaking (10:43–13:04)

• Commission’s New Initiative
  • Commissioner Glenn McAuliffe (the youngest in the college) launches a strategy to evaluate policies for intergenerational fairness—climate, digital, housing, pensions.
  • The Commission is prototyping an AI tool to assess future impacts of policy, visualizing effects over time—“a kind of crystal ball.” (11:51)
• Potential and Skepticism
  • Quote: “The bots are coming for the bureaucrats.” – Zoya (12:27)
  • Informality and light banter: Zoya and Sarah joke about which tasks they’d like to automate, from converting British to American English spellings (Sarah) to answering unwanted press inquiries (Zoya).

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4. Germany’s “Super Election Year” (13:22–14:32)

• Berlin Dispatch from Ian Wishart
  • Ian notes German media is focused both on Chancellor Mertz’s White House visit and impending state elections, highlighting the rise of the far-right AfD, especially fears about the Iran war’s impact on prices fueling populism in the former West:

    “The AfD almost only won’t win in Baden Wurttemberg, but it is on course to pretty much double its showing from the last time to 20%. And this, of course, in the heart of the former West Germany, a long way from its traditional eastern heartlands.” (13:57)

  • Lighthearted sign-off: “Right, I'm off for a currywurst juice.” (14:30)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "I was doing my laundry and now my laundry is doing me." – Zoya, opening banter (01:15)
• "I'm not here to put socks on a centipede. Let's go." – Zoya, segueing into news (01:34)
• "The bots are coming for the bureaucrats." – Zoya (12:27)
• “If you have countries that are working to integrate with the EU for 30 years and they just still can’t make it, then that is going to induce cynicism.” – Ivan Krastev (Guest, via Sarah) (04:27)
• “What would you like to give AI out of your tasks and responsibilities?” – Zoya engaging listeners (12:27)

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• Opening/Host banter: 00:19–01:34
• Enlargement/"Reverse Enlargement": 01:34–06:08
• Iran War & Foreign Affairs Council: 06:08–09:05
• Migration Response/Home Affairs: 09:05–10:43
• Intergenerational Fairness/AI: 10:43–13:04
• Berlin Dispatch/Ian Wishart: 13:22–14:32
• Brief Preview for Next Episode: 14:42–14:59

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Conclusion

A packed, energetic episode highlighting the blend of serious policy debate and breezy political commentary characteristic of Brussels Playbook Podcast. From “reverse enlargement” to AI policymaking, listeners get both inside-baseball insights and the big-picture context, peppered with wry humor and sharp analysis.

Transcript

[A]

Today's episode is Presented by Amazon. 60% of sales on Amazon come from independent sellers across Europe. Over 280,000 small and medium enterprises partner with Amazon to grow their business. Learn more at aboutamazon.eu Good morning.

[B]

It's Thursday, March 5th, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is experimental as the European Commission tests a controversial new idea on enlargement that has some capitals worried. Also on the pod today, foreign ministers are meeting over video conference to discuss the ripple effects from the Iran war as home affairs ministers are meeting in person in Brussels to discuss migration. And the European Commission is developing an AI tool to assess how its policies will impact future generations. What could possibly go wrong? I'm Zoya Shevdolovich, POLITICO's chief EU correspondent, reporting from my deathbed. And with me today is Sarah Wheaton, one of our policy editors. Hey, Sarah.

[C]

Hey, Zoya. I mean, yeah, you're really having sort of this like three steps forward, two steps backwards situation. Your voice is back, but your. Your washing machine exploded.

[B]

Yeah, this is the story of my life. Because why feel slightly better without a flood in your apartment? Just to keep things spicy and interesting, Sarah. Yep, that's right. I was doing my laundry and now my laundry is doing me.

[C]

Well, you do sound a little washed out, but I'm ching.

[B]

This is the stuff people come for to this pod. All right, Sarah, listen, I'm not here to put socks on a centipede. Let's go. Let's get to our first story today. It's about enlargement. There's been a lot of nervous conversation in Brussels and in EU capitals about this thing called reverse enlargement. And that's the thing that I wrote about a few weeks ago. The thinking is we need to speed up the accession process for certain candidate countries, particularly with respect to Ukraine. So that's what this idea is all about.

[C]

Yeah. In fact, Bjorn Seibert, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's right hand man, sat down with EU ambassadors over dinner last night to kind of do a little temperature taking on how they feel about it. But before we get into that, Zoya, just quickly, what is this reverse enlargement?

[B]

So this is this idea of at the moment, the process for getting a new country into the EU is they complete all of the reforms, after that, they do all of the steps necessary, then they're allowed into the EU and they have full membership rights. The idea with reverse enlargement is if you have completed a lot of the work that you needed to Complete, but you haven't quite finished. But you're being blocked by a country like Hungary, which is blocking Ukraine, Then you can get access to some of the benefits of EU membership. So that's things like being present in European Council meetings. It's things like being present in the European Parliament, being able to send people to committee meetings, that sort of thing. Now, you might also get access to the single market in this idea, but you don't have voting rights because you haven't finished all of the processes, all of the reforms and things haven't been completely finalized.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

And we are hearing some enthusiasm for this idea from some candidate countries being like, yeah, cool, give us access to Schengen, give us access to the Common Market, we can deal with not being full members. That's the take from some of the accession countries. But what are we hearing about what ambassadors told Zybert last night?

[B]

Yeah. So this idea, it's not a particularly popular one in the European Council, if I'm being honest, Sarah. And a lot of countries are against it. They don't want to allow Ukraine specifically in this case, because I think that's really. When we're talking about this story, it is mainly about Ukraine. A lot of EU countries, including some of Ukraine's big backers. What they said last night is something that they've been saying for the last couple of weeks. And this is. Has been coming up in the reporting that my colleagues and I have been doing. They're saying, hold on, hold on. We don't want to lower the bar for EU entry, because the whole point of EU standards and EU reforms is that is how you get the benefits of EU membership, it's by undertaking those reforms. So they're against this idea and they do feel that, you know, beyond Seibert and Ursula von der Ley and his boss might be pushing a little bit far into their wheelhouse by asking them to change the rules around accession. Yeah.

[C]

And I mean, some of these tensions came up actually, in a really interesting discussion that I heard yesterday with Ivan Krasdev. He's a Bulgarian political scientist, a really respected thinker, and he was saying, look, on the one hand, you know, if you have countries that are working to integrate with the EU for 30 years and they just still can't make it, then that is going to induce cynicism. He also talked about the potential for the EU to, you know, move on from just discussing with countries about, like, okay, can we close this chapter? For can we close that chapter? Or can they move on to more saying, okay, you're going to be in the EU in 10 years. So does that mean we let you participate more in the discussions about what the EU will look like in 10 years? And that will be a really interesting development.

[B]

Super interesting, Sarah, because it's similar to what I heard last week when I was in Ukraine with the EU's Enlargement Commissioner, Marta Kos, who was talking to me on the ground, and she said, zoya, something has to change about the EU's accession process.

[D]

We have to have a broader discussion inside the European Union with the member states about the methodology of the accession process, which is not suitable anymore for the times we are living in. You know, this methodology is good for peace. It is good when we have time, both member states and also the candidates. If we will not be able to integrate our candidates into the EU shortly, then there is a danger that someone else will be more influential in those countries and using them against us.

[B]

Whether it is this reverse enlargement process or it's one of the other three ideas that Bjorn Seibert gave the EU ambassadors last night about reforming that accession process, something has to give because it has just been too difficult ever since the last expansion of the bloc to add new countries. All right, Sarah, let's move on to our second story today. It is about surprise, surprise, the war in Iran and how the EU is preparing for the fallout. Now, we've got two super interesting meetings happening in Brussels today. Firstly, we've got the EU Foreign affairs ministers meeting. Now, that's not quite in the EU because it's over vtc, it's a video call, and they're going to be joined by their Gulf counterparts this time, which is quite an unusual thing. And of course, it's the countries that have been directly affected by the war, those that have been hit by Iran. And we also have a separate meeting which is the Home affairs ministers from around the block who are also gathering today. Let's start with the Foreign Affairs Council.

[C]

Yeah, we have to just kind of step back and see sort of the remarkable turnabout that has happened, like. So the Foreign Affairs Council is inviting a Gulf Cooperation Council, foreign ministers to participate. And these are countries like Saudi Arabia, like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and many of these countries were essentially pariahs in the EU just a few years ago. But actually under Council President Charles Michel, they started inviting them back into the fold. There's a need for their energy resources. Of course, they're in a very strategic location. So, yeah, now we're seeing quite this turnabout with these GCC foreign ministers being invited to participate in this EU meeting with the goal of, and to quote a European External Action Service spokesman person, to express EU solidarity and work jointly towards de escalation, safeguarding regional security and respect of international law. That is the world Trump has created.

[B]

Yes, and not just Trump, but also Vladimir Putin, the Russian president. Because the EU is now having to diversify its energy and guess where it's finding it in the Middle East. But I think it is a super interesting Foreign Affairs Council in any case, because the EU has been sort of steering clear of getting too closely involved. And we saw just the other day Iran say that if anyone gets involved, if anyone allows the US to use their bases, then we're going to take that as you are a party to this conflict and we're going to attack you. So there is this balancing act with the EU not wanting to essentially be seen as being a party to the war in case that it gets attacked, but also wanting to ensure that firstly, its citizens are safe, but also its interests are safe. Because you know that the danger and the fear is that what this does to energy prices crisis could have huge repercussions on the EU as well. So that's part of the meeting. They're also going to be talking about repatriation, so how to get their citizens safely out of any danger.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

And of course, Iran is looming large over the Home Affairs Ministers meeting happening today as well. That is going to be focused on migration. Of course, that's been a consuming issue for the bloc in general, very politically charged, but right now they are especially afraid that a lot of people will be fleeing the region due to renewed violence there.

[B]

Yeah. And this is something that we saw in the wake of the Syrian civil war when there was a large migration crisis in Europe. Currently there's a big focus on the EU level at increasing the number of returns of failed asylum seekers. The EU has all sorts of different ideas for how it's going to do that. And that's the deportation centers that we've seen. We've seen deals being struck with various countries in the region, in the Middle east and in Africa, to see people returned to those of origin more quickly. That is something that is high on the agenda for a lot of the EU's countries, particularly those that have large far right voting blocs. And they're seeing an opportunity to get tough on migration as a way of taking some of the sting out of the far right attacks on them as being too soft on migration.

[C]

And it's worth Noting that these talks are happening just ahead of some European Parliament votes in a committee on a new EU returns law. And that proposal would be pretty harsh. It would not just speed up deportations of rejected asylum seekers and expand Europol's role in tracking migration networks, but it would also give police broader powers to do things like raids on homes hosting undocumented migrants, which is giving some kind of ICE echoes.

[B]

Yeah. And the crisis in Iran will very much be hanging over this meeting today. At the moment, we're not seeing an increase or a big increase in the number of people who are coming to Europe from Iran or from the region in general, but it's certain, certainly something that those ministers will be keeping an eye on. Alrighty, Sarah, let's move on to our last story, and maybe it's my favourite one of today. It's about the European Commission's attempts to ensure intergenerational fairness. There's a new strategy that is expected to be adopted today, and it's being spearheaded by the Maltese commissioner, Glenn McAuliffe, by the way, in case you didn't know, the youngest member of the College of Commissioners. Did you know that, Sarah?

[C]

I did. Just because, you know, we all kind of laugh that they gave the youngest commissioner the Commissioner for Youth and Sports job.

[B]

It's a tough job, but someone's got to do it well. And what McAuliffe has been doing is he's been trying to ensure, through this strategy that everything the block does doesn't harm future generations. We're talking climate change, we're talking housing, digital policy, pensions, all of those things. And we're hearing that he wants to use AI to do this.

[C]

Yeah. Our colleague Gerardo Fortuna got to test out the prototype. So, basically, the idea is that you would create a policy project, define the problem to be solved, set goals and budgets, identify the target population, and then this AI kind of crystal ball visualizes how the policy would perform over time. It's not formal yet, but according to an EU official, a tool like this could potentially support what we call impact assessments that every legislative proposal is supposed to go through.

[B]

So I guess everything is now AI, Sarah.

[C]

The bots are coming for the bureaucrats.

[B]

Ooh, the bots are coming for the bureaucrats. Sarah, I actually wouldn't mind hearing from our listeners on this. What would you like to give AI out of your tasks and responsibilities? I don't know. What about you, Sarah? What's, like. What's something you hate doing?

[C]

What do I. I mean, well, here's a little peek behind the Politico Curtain. We're supposed to write in American English, which is very easy for me, but many of the people who learn British English keep spelling things with S's that need to be spelled with Z's. And if I could have a robot go in and replace all the S's with Z's, then that would make my life much easier.

[B]

I think I would make mine. I think I would make it answer emails about press releases that I don't care about. Now, we've got a little special treat for our listeners today. A friend of the pod, someone you may know, a certain Ian Wishart, has sent in a voicemail from Berlin.

[E]

Hello, Zoya. Hello, Sarah. I'm in Berlin. I'm standing in the sunshine just by Brandenburg Gate. I wanted to tell you that the media here is full not only of Chancellor Mertz's visit to the White House on Tuesday night, but also what they're calling a super election year, because on Sunday, it's the first of five state elections this year, which could really, I think, take the pulse of German politics and gauge how close the far right AFD is to real power. Sunday's election is in the state of Baden Wurttemberg, where Stuttgart is the home of Mercedes Benz. It looks pretty neck and neck between Mertz's CDU and the Greens. They've both been in coalition with each other in the state till now, but in Germany, people who know German politics more than I do say there's a real fear here about the Iran war leading to rising prices again, and voters may be in the mood to punish Mertz for that. The AfD almost only won't win in Baden Wurtenberg, but it is on course to pretty much double its showing from the last time to 20%. And this, of course, in the heart of the former West Germany, a long way from its traditional eastern heartlands. Right, I'm off for a currywurst juice.

[B]

Well, Ian, good luck with that curry versed. May it be delicious. Before we go, Sarah, could you give us a little preview of what's coming up on EU Confidential tomorrow?

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

We're talking to Mark Leonard, who's just written a book about how we're in an era of quote, unquote, unorder, this idea that some societies are ready for chaos and some definitely are not. We'll also have our former colleague Reem Momtaz, who'll join us to connect the dots between the egg, you and the Mideast.

[B]

Sounds fabulous. Well, I'm looking forward to that episode, listeners. Thank you for joining us Please send us your voice notes. Send us your texts. The WhatsApp number is in the show notes. Leave us a review. I would love that actually. Five stars would be so great. Especially when I'm sick. I'd like to see a bunch of new 5 star reviews. Recommend us to your friends, recommend us to your family and see you on Monday.

[C]

Get well soon.

[A]

A Message from Amazon 60% of sales on Amazon come from independent sellers across Europe. Over 280,000 small and medium enterprises partner with Amazon to grow their business. Sellers like Novoma and Toulouse use Amazon to grow their food supplement brand into a global business. Learn more at aboutAmazon€.