Is Italy's Giorgia Meloni in trouble?

Summary

Brussels Playbook Podcast: Is Italy's Giorgia Meloni in trouble?

Date: June 4, 2026
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich (Chief EU Correspondent, POLITICO)
Guest: Ian Wishart (Senior EU Politics Editor, POLITICO)
Duration: Approx. 15 minutes

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, her political challenges ahead of the 2027 election, and how shifting EU rules could influence her standing at home and abroad. The conversation also explores the EU’s changing posture toward Russia—particularly regarding tourist visas and sanctions—and touches on the lighter side of Brussels social life with a discussion about Italian cocktails.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is Giorgia Meloni in Trouble?

Context and Challenges

• Meloni faces re-election in 2027 and is “in kind of a bit of trouble” due to domestic economic pressures.
  • “The economy in Italy is not doing so great, is it?...Italy, I think, more than any other country in Europe, imports so much fossil fuels, and that's obviously been hit by the blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Italian economy has really gone downhill.” — Ian Wishart [01:49]
• Additional economic strain from Trump-imposed tariffs—surprising given Meloni’s alignment with Trump on some fronts.
  • “You would think that Giorgia Meloni, who is one of Trump's big admirers in the EU…that might stop Italy.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [02:10]

EU Budget Rule Changes – Political Lifeline

• The European Commission is set to exempt certain green investments from the EU’s strict deficit rules (3% of GDP cap), following lobbying from Meloni herself.
  • “Giorgia Meloni herself wrote a letter to Ursula von der Leyen, really making the case for this exception…So I think it is considered a big boost for her.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [03:17]
• This change benefits not just Italy but also Spain and other countries.
• EU appears keen to “keep Meloni on board” and aid her politically.
  • “So we're kind of thinking that might be because the EU now wants to keep Meloni on board. It wants to actually help her.” — Ian Wishart [03:40]

From Far-Right Worries to Pragmatic Partner

• Initial fears in Brussels about a far-right, Euroskeptic Italian leader.
  • “Before the Italian election…there was a lot of fear in Brussels about what might happen if a far-right leader [won].” — Zoya Sheftalovich [03:56]
• Over time, Meloni has adopted mainstream EU positions, becoming a pragmatic and reliable partner.
  • “She has kind of shown herself to be quite a pragmatic leader and she's done a lot of pragmatic things.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [04:18]
• Brussels has used Meloni as a bridge (or intermediary) to Donald Trump.
  • “…Going back to talking about Trump, you got the impression, didn't you, that Brussels was kind of using her as a sort of intermediary with the American president.” — Ian Wishart [04:26]

Setting a Template for Far-Right Leaders in Europe

• With the real possibility of a far-right presidency in France (Jordan Bardella or possibly Marine Le Pen), EU officials are quietly hoping Meloni’s cooperative approach might become a role model.
  • “…maybe if Meloni is embraced by Brussels…that might serve as a good role model for Bardella when he comes in.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [04:34, paraphrased with Barkella as example]
  • “…she could soften his edges perhaps.” — Ian Wishart [05:12]
• Officials are intensely focused on contingency planning for a far-right French presidency, especially after the elections and Hungary’s political shift away from Viktor Orban.
  • “I have had this very conversation with diplomats…they need to figure out some tactics to figure out how to pass legislation if Bardella comes in and he acts as a spoiler.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [05:48]
  • “…a great sense of relief that Viktor Orban is gone. You've got Peter Magyar in Hungary…they are squarely looking to see what's going to happen if Bardella comes in and becomes a similar spoiler.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [06:00]

Moderation and Political Costs

• Pattern noted: Populist Euroskeptic leaders tend to moderate their rhetoric after joining EU institutions—often losing support at home as a result.
  • “It is interesting how politicians who try to get elected like to bash Brussels, like to be Eurosceptic, but when they get in…they maybe moderate their policies a little bit.” — Ian Wishart [06:34]
  • “…not only that, they then lose support, which is frequently what happens…” — Zoya Sheftalovich [06:50]

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2. EU–Russia Relations: Sanctions & Visa Restrictions

St. Petersburg Economic Forum & Drone Attacks

• The annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (Russia’s ‘Davos’) continues amidst the Ukraine war.
  • “He loves it. He takes questions. They're all planted. It's all bullshit. But…the point is, it's his annual kind of favorite big event.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [07:31]
• This year, Ukrainian drone attacks during the opening ceremony made a statement, visually disrupting the proceedings and highlighting the war’s impact.

EU Crackdown on Russian Tourist Visas

• 11 European (and associated) countries, including Iceland and Norway, are calling for a crackdown on Russian tourist visas.
  • “They've come together and written a letter…saying, can you please crack down on Russian tourists going on holiday in Europe now?” — Zoya Sheftalovich [08:26]
• The intent is to affect “rich elites” and those with family in the EU, making the war’s costs clearer to Russian society.
  • “It's not exactly a huge number…but it's a question of which Russians are traveling…key demographics for Putin.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [09:06]
• The move is also about tightening Schengen zone security, targeting individuals suspected of intelligence ties or intimidation tactics.
  • “There are concerns that some of those tourists aren't really tourists…and are trying to intimidate European journalists.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [10:23]

New Round of Russia Sanctions

• The EU’s 21st sanctions package is in the pipeline, targeting, among other things, Chinese companies reportedly assisting Russia militarily.
  • “Our colleague Nick Vinica…is reporting that Four Chinese companies might be on the list…That's another way of sort of really strangling the Russian economy, I suppose.” — Ian Wishart [11:19]
  • “The EU now wants to really tighten things up when it comes to the facilitators of Russia's war.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [11:33]
• There’s a deliberate escalation in measures—moving beyond “low hanging fruit” to more substantively impact support flows to Russia.

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3. Brussels Culture Corner: The ‘Spritz Misto’ Cocktail Mystery

• Running joke/theme: What’s a ‘Spritz Misto’?
  • “I think it's Aperol and Campari, if I'm not wrong.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [01:12]
• Italian MEP Brando Benifei was reportedly seen at a Brussels Republic Day party trying (unsuccessfully) to order one.
  • “He spent a large part of the party trying to convince the bartender to make him a spritz. Mr. But the Barten had no idea how to make it.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [13:04]
• General consensus: The ‘Spritz Misto’ is a northeastern Italian twist on the traditional Aperol Spritz, mixing Aperol and Campari; recipe featured in POLITICO’s newsletter.
• Side discussion: Favorite cocktails among the hosts, fun listener engagement about Brussels’ best cocktails and bars.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Italy’s EU relations and Meloni’s moderation:

  • “She has kind of shown herself to be quite a pragmatic leader and she's done a lot of pragmatic things.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [04:18]

• On the EU’s long-term political strategy:

  • “There is a view among some circles in Brussels…that maybe if Meloni is embraced by Brussels…that might serve as a good role model for Bardella…” — Zoya Sheftalovich [04:47]

• On EU sanctions scope evolution:

  • “The previous 20 rounds of sanctions hit some of the easier, lower hanging fruit. The EU now wants to really tighten things up when it comes to the facilitators of Russia’s war.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [11:33]

• On the realities of Brussels social culture:

  • “We actually spoke with several Italians because they really wrote in on [spritz misto]. And they told us that it's not universal. It's a northeastern Italian thing.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [13:29]
  • “WhatsApp us. Tell us your favorite cocktail and perhaps your favorite place to grab a spritz in Brussels.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [13:37]

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Important Timestamps

| Time | Segment | Key Content | |-----------|------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------| | 01:23 | Main Topic Introduction | Spotlight on Italy & Giorgia Meloni’s troubles | | 01:49 | Economic Woes in Italy | War-driven import shocks, Trump tariffs impact | | 02:35 | EU Budget Deficit Rule Changes | Green investment exemption, Meloni’s win | | 04:03 | Meloni’s Evolution | From fear to pragmatic partner for Brussels | | 05:24 | Preparing for a Far-Right France | Meloni as a positive template | | 06:34 | Populists Moderate in Brussels | Moderation and loss of support | | 07:07 | Russia: St. Petersburg Forum & Drones | Forum as propaganda, Ukrainian retaliation | | 08:26 | Russian Tourist Visa Crackdown | 11 countries call for restrictions | | 10:54 | New Russia Sanctions – China Companies | EU to include Chinese firms aiding Russia | | 12:06 | Brussels Life – Cocktails & Republic Day | Origins of the ‘Spritz Misto’; listener engagement |

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Tone and Style

The tone is clear, conversational, and informative, with a touch of humor and insider wit—perfect for policy-minded listeners who enjoy both EU politics and the lighter quirks of Brussels social life.

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Summary

This episode provides sharp analysis of Giorgia Meloni’s precarious position, how the EU’s political and economic maneuvers may help—or hinder—her, and the broader European strategy in managing nationalism and Euroskepticism. It wraps by connecting policy discussions to the daily culture of Brussels life, exemplifying the human and quirky side of EU politics.

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For more, tune in tomorrow for a special weekend deep-dive on tech sovereignty following the Commission’s major legislative package.

Transcript

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[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Good morning. It's Thursday, June 4th, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is fond, as officials realize Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni might not be that bad. Actually fond, fond. Also on the pod at a meeting In Luxembourg today, 11 countries are going to issue a call for Russian tourists to be barred from holidaying in Europe. And what on earth is a spritz misto, the mystery cocktail that has the EU capital scratching its head? Stick around for some answers and maybe a recipe. I'm Zoya Shevdolovic and with me today is Ian Wishart, our senior EU politics editor. Ian, you've ever. Have you ever had a spritz misto before?

[Ian Wishart]

No. What is it?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

I think it's Aperol and Camparis Ruin the podcast.

[Ian Wishart]

We're supposed to that at the end.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Damn. Well, now there's no reason to listen. I think it's Aperol and Campari. If I'm not wrong. Our Italian.

[Ian Wishart]

What's wrong with a nice cup of tea?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Nothing. It's perfection. Tell me how to make it again for all of the steps. All right, Ian, let's talk Italy first. We haven't done that much on the pod around Rome, so it's time now. There's a reason why we're talking about Italy. It's because Georgia Maloney is facing election in 2027. That's the other big election. It's not just France that's going to the polls and she's in kind of a bit of trouble.

[Ian Wishart]

She is. The economy in Italy is not doing so great, is it? And it's been really badly impacted by the war in Iran, basically because Italy, I think, more than any other country in Europe, imports so much fossil fuels, and that's obviously been hit by the blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Italian economy has really gone downhill.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah. And that's not the only thing that's been hitting Italy. It's also been Trump tariffs. And you would think that Giorgia Maloney, who is one of Trump's big admirers in the eu, one of his closest buddies, you would think that that might stop Italy.

[Ian Wishart]

Are they close friends now, though?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Well, friends of convenience. I mean, I guess Donald Trump doesn't have a lot of friends. He doesn't go to his son's wedding.

[Ian Wishart]

So why we're talking about this today is because of the announcement, the economic announcements that the commission made yesterday.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah, that's right. So this is in the spring semester package. And basically what happened was that the EU rulebook limits budget deficits to 3% of economic output. But there's going to be a concession that the Commission has announced, assuming it gets up, which is going exempt some green investments from those rules for public spending.

[Ian Wishart]

So just for our listeners, in case they don't know, the budget deficit is the difference between how much you spend and how much you bring in each year. And as you say, the EU rule says you shouldn't be spending more than 3% of GDP on that. There are some exemptions that are taken into account and a big exemption is, is now defense or a lot of defence spending. So that doesn't count against your. Against your figure.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah. And now the commission says also when it comes to this green spending as well. That makes sense. Yeah. And it's not just Italy. Look, Spain is also a winner from this and there are a few countries that have been lobbying, but Italy, Giorgio Maloney herself wrote a letter to Ursula von der Leyen, really making the case for this exception to be made. So I think it is considered a big boost for her.

[Ian Wishart]

So we're kind of thinking that might be because the EU now wants to keep Meloni on board. It wants to actually help her.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah. And I'm old enough to remember before the Italian election where Georgia Maloney swept to power, there was a lot of fear in Brussels about what might happen

[Ian Wishart]

if far right leader, that kind of thing.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Exactly.

[Ian Wishart]

From the apple cart.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah. And she's from a big country. Italy is a heavy hitter.

[Ian Wishart]

It's one of the Euro skeptic.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah, yeah. But it's one of the EU's top economies. It has a lot of heft in the European Council summit table. So it was a real worry before she was elected. But over the years since she came to power, she has kind of shown herself to be quite a pragmatic leader and she's done a lot of pragmatic things. She's kind of become part of the mainstream very happily and a player.

[Ian Wishart]

And actually going back to talking about Trump, you got the impression, didn't you, that. That Brussels was kind of using her as a sort of intermediary with the American president.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah, that's right. And there's something else that one of our colleagues has picked up on, which is this idea that actually, you know, the commission is looking at 20, 27 and it's seeing that we may get a far right president in France, Jordan Bardella, potentially, or Marine Le Pe, if she wins her court case. And basically there is a view among some circles in Brussels, here, around town, that maybe if Maloney is embraced by Brussels and shows that it's. It pays better to play ball. Yeah, to play ball and to work with Brussels, then maybe that might serve as a good role model for Bardella when he comes in and you can

[Ian Wishart]

imagine them thinking that she could soften his edges perhaps.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah, exactly. And I mean, people don't know that much about how he's going to be when he gets the presidency. I mean, he is an MEP, so people do know him around 10 town.

[Ian Wishart]

So, Zoya, do you get the impression that you, you talk to a lot more diplomats and officials than I do, that are they already thinking of A, are they already thinking of the French presidency and B, are they thinking what can we do to moderate a supposed far right French president? And this is one of the tactics. It's, look at Maloney, look how she's played with us. You know, look what, how we help her, basically 100%.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

I have had this very conversation with diplomats over the past week where everyone was looking at those polls which we talked about on podcast, Where Jordan Bardella vs. Jean Luc Melanchon in a runoff in the French election will mean that Bardella will get the presidency. That really focused some minds around town. And in my conversations that I've been having with diplomats that keeps coming up, that they need to figure out some tactics to figure out how to pass legislation if Bardella comes in and he acts as a spoiler. And there's this great sense of relief that Viktor Orban is gone. You've got Peter Magyar in Hungary who's come in and opened up a world of possibilities when it comes to decision making at the EU level. And they are squarely looking to see what's going to happen if Bardella comes in and becomes a similar spoiler.

[Ian Wishart]

It is interesting, isn't it? And perhaps Orban is the exception here. But it is interesting how politicians who try to get elected like to bash Brussels, like to be Eurosceptic, but when they get in and they start working with the eu, they maybe moderate their policies a little bit.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah. But not only that, they then lose support, which is frequently what happens? So, look, we'll see what happens in that Italian election. We'll see whether this gives Meloni the boost she needs in the polls.

[Ian Wishart]

Shall we go back to Ukraine, then?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Let's do it. Ian, my favorite topic.

[Ian Wishart]

There's this St. Petersburg International Economic Forum today. That sounds very exciting. Are you going?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Look, I don't think I'd be welcome at Russia's answer to Davos. Yeah, it's a big event. It's an annual thing that Putin loves to throw. He's scheduled to speak later day, actually. People might remember. You know, he sits on stage, he takes questions from the audience, where he

[Ian Wishart]

talks for ages and ages and ages.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Literally everywhere, he talks for ages and ages and ages, as Donald Trump learned when he gave him a history lesson. Yeah, he. He loves it. He takes questions. They're all planted. It's all bullshit. But the point is, it's his annual kind of favorite big event. It used to be a lot of EU politicians would go there, business people would go there, they would court Putin. It was an opportunity to really get in his ear. But since the war in Ukraine started, it's become a very unattractive event, shall we say, for Europeans to be seen at. And the Ukrainians have made it even less attractive because yesterday they targeted St. Petersburg while the opening ceremony was happening with drones. And there was, like, clouds of smoke. Yeah. While the. While the thing was opening up. So the reason we're talking about it is because there's a fair few Russia things on the EU agenda right now.

[Ian Wishart]

Yeah, there's something about European visas for Russians. And also we're talking about the next round of sanctions on Russia, aren't we?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah, we are. So let's start with European visas, maybe. So this is a story that I've been looking at, and basically there's a group of 11 countries, most of them are EU countries, but not all of them. Iceland and Norway as well. Nine others, they've come together and written a letter addressed to the European Commission, basically saying, can you please crack down on Russian tourists going on holiday in Europe now?

[Ian Wishart]

So my question for you, Zoya, seeing as, you know, that part of the world, what sort of effect would it have on the average person in Russia to think, I can't get a visa to come to Europe? Does that cause a backlash? Does that cause more antagonism against Putin?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

So there are roughly. There are over 600,000 visas that were issued to Russians last year, and I think roughly half a million were for tourists. So that gives you a sense of it it's not exactly a huge number of Russians who are traveling, but it's a question of what, which Russians are traveling. It's the rich elites in Moscow and in St. Petersburg who are making their way over. And it's also people who have family in the EU and who want to come visit. So I think it would affect some pretty key demographics for Putin.

[Ian Wishart]

Right. So. So Europe isn't really trying to target the average Russian middle class family who just wants to come on holiday to Warsaw or whatever.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

I think it's also targeting those. I think the whole point that Europe is trying to make is Russians should also feel the cost of the war because Ukrainians can't leave the country. You've got Ukrainian men of certain age prevented from leaving the country. You know, there's no flying out of Ukraine currently. So I think the idea is just to strangle everything. Yeah. And. And get the Russians to feel that pain. And I think that's also part of these strikes that we saw in St. Petersburg. The whole point of it is to make the war visible, to make it to give friction to an average Russian's daily life.

[Ian Wishart]

Yeah. So this letter will be looked at in the justice and Home Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg today. And then we're told that if there's support for it, it could be fast track, the summer.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah.

[Ian Wishart]

And what do they want to do? Reduce the number of visas given or.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Or they want fewer visas to be given. They want more tracking of Russians who do come to the Schengen Zone. Because this is about the fact that when you come to Europe into the Schengen Zone, then you know it's border free travel, so you can go wherever. And there are some concerns that some of those tourists aren't really tourists, that they're members of the secret services and so forth. There are concerns that they are trying to intimidate some. Some of those people are trying to intimidate European journalists, for instance. So the idea is track them better, reduce the number of them coming here and just really tighten the screws.

[Ian Wishart]

And briefly, the other thing is about work, work going on on the latest round of sanctions against Russia.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah. So this is the 21st package of sanctions and European diplomats have been racing to get agreement. There are some things that they haven't quite agreed on just yet, but the hope is that they want to at least sign off on it at the latest in June at the European Leaders Summit, which is happening on June 18th, June 19th.

[Ian Wishart]

They want now.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Indeed.

[Ian Wishart]

And our colleague Nick Vinica this morning is reporting that Four Chinese companies might be on the list. Chinese companies who have apparently been helping Russia. So that's another way of sort of really strangling the Russian economy, I suppose.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah. And basically the previous 20 rounds of sanctions hit some of the easier, lower hanging fruit. The EU now wants to really tighten things up when it comes to the facilitators of Russia's war. And the Chinese companies in particular have been a target in the past. But Europe has sort of not been super keen to get too aggressive because they're concerned about repercussions when it comes to Beijing retaliating. But now they're trying to sort of say, okay, we're going to, we're going to do it now.

[Ian Wishart]

Fancier cocktails?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Oh, yeah, always.

[Ian Wishart]

What's your favorite?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Oh, I do love.

[Ian Wishart]

Is there an Australian cocktail? Is there a.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Have you heard of a grasshopper?

[Ian Wishart]

No.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

It's disgusting.

[Ian Wishart]

What's in it?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Creme de menthe. Oh, fell. Yeah, but, yeah, so I'm not gonna go with that one. I, I quite like a Cosmo.

[Ian Wishart]

What's in that?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Vodka, cranberry juice. I don't know. What's yours?

[Ian Wishart]

A gin and tonic. Is that a cocktail?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

I think so.

[Ian Wishart]

Very simple one, isn't it?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah.

[Ian Wishart]

It's very easy to work out the ingredients in a gin and tonic. Why are we talking about this?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

God knows. It's because June 2nd was Italy's Republic Day. And our colleague Gerardo Fortuna went to these celebrations in Brussels and he reported because he is, has a sharp eye. He does that. Mep Brando Bannafay. He spent a, a large part of the party trying to convince the bartender to make him a spritz. Mr. But the Barten had no idea how to make it.

[Ian Wishart]

So what is it?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Well, it's a sort of a, a spin on the classic apparel spritz, but with Campari, as I said earlier.

[Ian Wishart]

You did say that earlier.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah.

[Ian Wishart]

So you've ruined the, ruined the cliffhanger.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

The surprise. Yep. Yeah. And, and Gerardo is a big, big fan of these things. He's got a, a recipe in today's Brussels playbook, so if you want to find out how to make it. And we actually, we spoke with several Italians because they really wrote in on them.

[Ian Wishart]

There's a lot of them.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah. And they told us that it's not universal. It's a northeastern Italian thing.

[Ian Wishart]

Anyway, WhatsApp us. Tell us your favorite cocktail.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yes, tell us your favorite cocktail and perhaps your favorite place to grab a spritz in Brussels. Diornes Saga I'm a fan of Negroni. Oh. Oh.

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Margarita always.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Do you like a spicy mug or a regular mug?

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Spicy mug.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Spicy mug. Folks, we asked for birthday shout outs and you've delivered. We have a birthday special birthday shout out to Dave from Texas.

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Wow.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah.

[Ian Wishart]

Happy birthday. Yeah, I like this WhatsApp we got from Brendan from Dublin. Yeah, he said he was skeptical about this switch of the podcast today. We've been going, what, a few, couple months now?

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

February 10th. Not that I'm counting.

[Ian Wishart]

He says. At first he was saying, who is this Aussie woman with a weird sounding name and what is she doing in my ear every morning? I have to say I thought very similar things, Brenda.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

You thought that every day as I came into the office.

[Ian Wishart]

And on tomorrow's weekend, though, it's all about tech sovereignty following the release of the Commission's long awaited package on Wednesday.

[Zoya Shevdolovic]

Yeah, we've covered that earlier on the podcast this week, but you can expect a deep dive tomorrow. Folks out there like us, subscribe, rate us, tell their friends, tell everyone.

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