EU Confidential – Episode Summary

Title: Jourová’s secrets and Putin’s drone tests
Date: September 19, 2025
Host: Sarah Wheaton (POLITICO Europe)
Guests:

• Vera Jourová (Former European Commission Vice President for Values and Transparency)
• Oana Lungescu (former NATO spokesperson)
• Jan Czynski (POLITICO European defense editor)
• Eva Hartog (POLITICO Russia expert)

Episode Overview

This episode is split in two major segments. The first explores Vladimir Putin’s provocative drone incursions into NATO airspace in Poland and Romania, analyzing NATO’s response and political implications. The second segment is a candid interview with former European Commissioner Vera Jourová, reflecting on her Brussels years, the EU’s battle with autocracy, tech regulation, and her new life in Prague.

Part 1: Putin’s Drone Incursions and NATO’s Test

[01:14–21:37]

Key Discussion Points

What Happened?

• Russian drone incursions: Approximately 19 Russian drones—mostly flown from Ukraine, some possibly from Belarus—entered Polish airspace. Drones also penetrated Romanian airspace later that week.
• Military reactions: Poland actively shot down three drones, the rest crashed; Romania tracked a drone but did not shoot it down, leading to Ukrainian frustration.
• Purpose: The drones, unarmed but equipped with cameras, are widely viewed as intelligence probes into NATO’s readiness and air defenses (03:43–05:16).
• Political reaction: Swift military and diplomatic response in Europe, contrasted by muted and ambiguous stances from Donald Trump and the U.S. (01:14–08:38).

Why the Big Reaction?

• Scale: This incursion was “the biggest number of drones entering NATO airspace. Nineteen in one night. That’s a lot. It’s clearly very provocative. It’s reckless.” (Oana Lungescu, 05:24)
• Airbase proximity: Some drones headed for a key military air bridge to Ukraine, deepening concerns over Russian intent (05:52).
• Testing NATO: “What Russia is doing is to test defenses, to see how quickly allies respond, with what capabilities, in what way, how coordinated are they.” (Oana Lungescu, 06:10)

What is Putin’s Goal?

• Two scenarios:
  • “Best case... Putin’s warning the West not to send peacekeeping troops into Ukraine.”
  • “Worst case... Russia’s war goals are shifting to a much broader goal of dismantling NATO... poking this Article 5, the collective defense clause, and amping up the pressure...” (Eva Hartog, 07:03)
• Division as a weapon: The incursions are a “low-cost way” to highlight or widen divisions within NATO (Jan Czynski, 08:57).

NATO’s Response – Pass or Fail?

• Pro: For the first time, NATO “intervened and shot them down versus observing,” suggesting some level of deterrence and unity. (Jan Czynski, 08:57)
• Con:
  • Disparity in cost efficiency: expensive NATO missiles v. cheap drones.
  • U.S. political ambiguity signals potential disunity, risking NATO credibility and emboldening Moscow (08:57–10:50).

Inside NATO:

• Multinational response: “We had the Polish F-16s, Dutch F-35s, Italian surveillance planes, German patriots, all responding together.” (Oana Lungescu, 10:59)
• Diplomatic escalation: NATO ambassadors met under Article 4 (consultation, not collective defense), leading to the launch of Eastern Sentry, a new defense posture on the eastern flank (10:59–13:33).
• NATO’s capability gap: Allies require “five times more” air defense than they now possess.

Insights on Drone Warfare

• Learning from Ukraine: “Ukraine is in a tech arms race with Russia... They knock [down] 80-90% of incoming Russian drones and missiles.” NATO is learning from Ukrainian innovations and setting up training programs (Jan Czynski, 13:47).
• Media narratives in Russia:
  • “Russians aren’t telling their public one thing, there are multiple narratives. Dismissing it, blaming Ukraine, and triumphalism at the West’s reaction. Plausible deniability is the playbook.” (Eva Hartog, 14:53)
  • “The West’s division... and inability to have a united stance and forceful response is a huge weakness.” (Eva Hartog, 16:48)

Trump’s Position

• Unrealistic conditions: Trump’s “plan”—for Europe to cut Russian energy, embargo China and India—“sets up conditions that are impossible for the EU to meet... and gives Trump an out for not punishing Russia.” (Jan Czynski, 17:13)
• Skepticism on sanctions: “Most people think Trump is not serious about ever putting on any kind of penalties or punishment against Russia. This is another way for him to dodge that taco.” (Jan Czynski, 19:03)

What Would Actually Deter Moscow?

• “Consistency, not ambiguity... There is this idea of Putin needing some kind of war, and this grander war against NATO and the West will not stop” (Eva Hartog, 19:17).
• NATO’s red line: “Send a message of deterrence—don’t do it again... But officials are sure it’ll happen again. The question is how fast NATO creates this ‘drone wall’ and how effective it is.” (Oana Lungescu, 20:46)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Nineteen in one night, that’s a lot. It’s provocative. It’s reckless.” – Oana Lungescu (05:24)
• “Russia is poking Article 5 to see where it snaps... It’s trying to upstage NATO as weak.” – Eva Hartog (07:03)
• “If Russia was looking for a signal that there’s a lack of NATO unity... It does not close the door on Russia’s hopes of showing that NATO is a paper tiger.” – Jan Czynski (08:57)
• “Ukraine is in a tech arms race with Russia... Their expertise is unmatched.” – Jan Czynski (13:47)
• “Russians aren’t telling their public one thing... Plausible deniability is the playbook.” – Eva Hartog (14:53)

Part 2: Vera Jourová – Secrets from a Brussels Veteran

[23:17–41:13]

Key Discussion Points

Life After Brussels

• Public anonymity: “People from the right queue were stepping on my feet unscrupulously, as if I was not sitting there at all... A year ago they waited for me. Now I can laugh about it.” (Vera Jourová recounting being ignored at a Brussels event, 24:09)
• Liberation from politics: She describes the transition to “normal citizen” with a mixture of relief and bemusement.
  • “When I wake up in the morning, I open POLITICO. My reaction is, ‘I am not there. Half a minute of frustration, then, oh my God, that’s great. I am not there.’” (C, 40:45)

Reflections on EU Leadership

• On Ursula von der Leyen:

  • “Seeing Brazilia leading Europe, I have better sleep. I trust her... She managed. A man 2 meters high would not have to invest so much.” (On the SOTEU speech, 25:13–25:30)
  • Skepticism about deliverability: “I know how big is the distance between the words and the action and the impact on reality.” (25:30)

• On Brussels crises: From the Crimea crisis to Brexit, “My God, it’s crisis after crisis... due to the cumulative issues and crisis, the atmosphere in society changed. Part of society has been radicalized... Social media and unscrupulous algorithms are huge.” (26:38–27:46)

Rule of Law, Autocrats, and Money

• Conditionality on EU funding:

  • “In 2017, I announced it in Vienna that it could be a good idea to condition the money... Autocrats will remember me longer than the democrats. I’m proud of it.” (29:22)
  • Expresses pride and surprise that what seemed “mission impossible” (freezing funds for violating rule of law) became policy.

• Authoritarian drift: Not just Viktor Orban, but more leaders from Central Europe now join Eurosceptic ranks.

  • “Viktor Orban and his mantra of sovereignism... is the plan to dismantle the EU. I am not happy my former party joined this club.” (31:00)

Candid Chronicles & Colleagues

• Margrethe Vestager: “She’s honest... always understood that tools must be used for the benefit of the people.”
• Thierry Breton: “He doesn’t understand Czech humor, even when it is said in English... till now he doesn’t know that.” (35:43)
• Frans Timmermans: “He wanted to order the way he thinks people should live... I always tried to offer the ways.” (36:54)

On Sanctions, Gaza, and Institutional Reform

• Sanctions on Russia: “I think now it’s high time with the new package... to really stop feeding the Russian economic machine.” (37:15)
• Hungary and Slovakia’s veto: “Now veto is used as blackmailing method and we cannot continue like that.” (37:58)
• Israel and Gaza: Expresses the Czech dilemma between historical support for Israel and recognizing the suffering in Gaza. “It has a strong ethical dimension.” (39:02)

Adjusting to Civilian Life

• “Ten years my friends were waiting for me to come back... Life is now very good.” (40:26)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Whenever the journalist was leaving my office looking very happy, I knew that I would be unhappy tomorrow.” – Vera Jourová (23:40)
• “When I look back... sometimes I say that autocrats will remember me longer than the democrats. And this is one of the reasons I am proud.” (29:22)
• “I always say I didn’t sign the contract with my blood. I decided to leave the party in summer 2024.” (31:00)
• “He doesn’t understand Czech humor, even when it is said in English.” (On Thierry Breton, 35:43)
• “I am so happy back home in Prague... I am already a normal citizen.” (40:26)

Key Takeaways

• NATO’s drone challenge is ongoing: The incursion exposed both strengths (multinational response) and persistent weaknesses (cost efficiency, U.S. ambiguity, unity).
• Russia is testing the West: Both through literal drone incursions and narrative manipulation, seeking to probe and divide.
• EU must learn agility and innovation: Lessons from Ukraine’s successful drone defense are vital for EU and NATO modernization.
• Institutional dilemmas haunt the EU: From persistent vetoes, rule-of-law conditionality, to managing contradictory member state positions on Russia and Israel.
• Life after Brussels, with wit: Jourová’s reflections are a candid, sometimes humorous account of both the grandeur and the absurdities of EU politics.

For further exploration: Jourová’s memoir and more analysis at POLITICO’s show notes