EU Confidential – August 29, 2025

Episode: "Limping through the Trump era: Can Europe lead again?"

Overview

This episode of EU Confidential explores the European Union's struggle for geopolitical relevance and strategic independence in a world shaped by renewed American assertiveness under Donald Trump, shifting alliances, and fragmenting global order. Host Sarah Wheaton moderates discussions at the European Forum Alpbach, bringing together Sabina Wayand (EU's top trade negotiator) and Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz for immediate reactions to Trump's fresh trade threats, and sits down with veteran trade negotiator and former Spanish foreign minister Arancha Gonzalez Laya for a deeper dive on how Europe can move from "just enough to limp along" to setting the global pace.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Trump’s Trade Threats and EU Tech Regulations (04:09–11:10)

• Fresh Tensions: Washington threatens tariffs and export restrictions targeting countries with digital taxes seen as "discriminatory," including EU's Digital Services Act and Digital Markets Act.
• Immediate Reactions:
  • Sabina Wayand (05:48): Emphasizes the persistent US complaints, but firmly reiterates the EU’s commitment to non-discriminatory, democratically decided tech rules.
    • “Our regulation is non discriminatory and we will apply it as decided by our democratic institutions. That is not up for concessions or negotiations with other countries” (05:48).
  • Joseph Stiglitz (06:59): Frames Trump's approach as abandoning rule of law for the "law of the jungle," asserting the only viable EU response is to defend rules collectively and reduce dependence on the US.
    • “It's denial of the rule of law… He's using the language [of] discrimination… but Trump doesn't understand things that way. …It is an attempt to just exert raw power” (06:59).
    • “Europe is a bigger economy, more people, bigger GDP, more engaged in trade than the United States… There’s no reason that Europe could not be, for this war, [a] real military power. There’s no reason you should be depending on the United States.” (10:10)

2. Europe’s Need to Adapt: Nostalgia vs. Realism (11:10–15:56)

• From Rules to Power:
  • Wayand: Warns against "nostalgia," calls for adapting to a more power-based global environment, but insists autarky is not an option; the EU must build diverse, flexible partnerships and revitalize its internal strengths, especially the single market.
    • “Nostalgia is not a strategy. …The order in which Europe was thriving is a thing of the past, and it will not come back” (11:37).
    • “The biggest asset is the single market and we need to focus on making that fit for the future. …Let’s focus on Europe’s strengths and not just react to what others are doing, but be an actor of our own, shaping our own destiny.” (15:56)
  • Strategic Plurilateralism: Promotes "open plurilateralism"—flexible, overlapping alliances—as a bridge between multilateral breakdown and transactional chaos.

3. From "Limping Along" to Leadership: Lessons from Arancha Gonzalez Laya (16:59–36:00)

• Bullfighting Trump:
  • Gonzalez Laya: Describes the EU’s evolving approach to dealing with Trump—pivoting from persuasion to flattery and maneuvering, but warns that tactical adaptation is insufficient for structural empowerment.
    • “If I have one regret [about] this summer… it has been the summer of just enough to limp along, and just enough to limp along is not enough. …We still got the hard, tough job to do, which is get the European Union ready to not be satisfied with just enough to limp along, because that's too risky a business today” (19:13).
• Disempowerment and Responsibility:
  • Emphasizes that Europe's fate cannot depend on US electoral cycles or personalities:
    • “The problem is not Trump, and the solution would not have been Kamala Harris. This is disempowering Europe. …The answers are with us. …We have to do the job for us” (20:52).
• Three European Priorities:
  • Defense: Europe needs not just more spending but better, more collective, and sovereign command over its defense—moving from US dependency to EU strategic autonomy.
    • “What Europeans have not done yet is command their own defense. The command of the European defense has been in American's hands…” (22:01).
  • Single Market Reform: Essential to revive Europe’s core economic strength.
  • Capital Retention: Necessity of keeping European capital in the continent and making the EU an attractive alternative for risk-averse foreign capital (23:02).
• The Spanish Example:
  • Spain’s economic resilience is rooted in tough reforms (labor, pensions, education), energy decarbonization, and positive migration policies—not miracles (25:02).
  • Spain's shift toward fulfilling defense commitments, and the challenges of balancing defense investment with broader security—including climate and infrastructure.
• Trade, Coalitions, and EU Leverage:
  • Asserts recent EU-US trade deal was “asymmetric” and geopolitically dangerous, encouraging a "might is right" world order:
    • “This trade deal was not good from an economic point of view. It's asymmetric. …We gave concessions to the US [and] didn’t obtain much other than the President's words…” (28:24).
    • “The geopolitical message is: might is right. You only have to bully to get a good result for yourself. And that’s not the world that the EU would be comfortable to face” (28:56).
  • Advocates for:
    • Building coalitions with other countries to counter US leverage.
    • Greater readiness to threaten retaliatory measures, deploying the EU’s own economic weight.
    • Internal coordination and integration to avoid weakening under external pressure.
  • Cautions European leaders that failure to deliver integration and results will drive voters toward Eurosceptic parties:
    • “Disappoint your voters at your peril… The only real way to defend Ukraine, the only real way to defend Europeans and democracy in Europe is to strengthen Europe. So all roads lead to that” (34:35).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Arancha Gonzalez Laya:
  • “We’ve learned to maneuver the U.S. president, but this is not enough. Let's not take too much comfort into that. We still got the hard, tough job to do, which is get the European Union ready to not be satisfied with just enough to limp along, because that's too risky a business today” (19:13).
  • “The problem is not Trump, and the solution would not have been Kamala Harris. This is disempowering Europe… The answers are with us.” (20:52)
  • “The Spanish miracle… is not a miracle. It's hard reforms that the Spanish government did in [2018, 2019, and 2021]… It’s called decarbonating your energy needs.” (25:02)
  • “This trade deal was not good from an economic point of view. It's asymmetric… But I’m more worried about the geopolitical signal: might is right. You only have to bully to get a good result for yourself… That is a world of dog eats dog. And I don’t think this is a world that the European Union should be cheering for.” (28:24, 28:56)
• Sabina Wayand:
  • “Nostalgia is not a strategy. So I think we have to accept that we have to adapt to the world we live in. And that is more power based… At the moment… EU power has been largely economic and a trade power. Today that is no longer sufficient.” (11:37)
  • “Let’s not look at Europe only through the eyes of others. Europe needs to focus on its own strength… and let’s focus on Europe’s strengths and not just react to what others are doing, but be an actor of our own, shaping our own destiny.” (15:56)
• Joseph Stiglitz:
  • “It’s denial of the rule of law… He’s using the language [of] discrimination… It is an attempt to just exert raw power.” (06:59)
  • “[Europe] is a bigger economy, more people, bigger GDP, more engaged in trade than the United States… There’s no reason that Europe could not be, for this war, [a] real military power. There’s no reason you should be depending on the United States.” (10:10)

Important Timestamps

• EU's "limping along" status explained: 03:56–04:09
• Trump’s digital rules/trade threats: 04:09–06:25
• Joseph Stiglitz: End of rules-based order: 06:59–11:10
• Wayand: Nostalgia vs. power-based politics: 11:37–15:56
• Arancha Gonzalez Laya’s interview:
  • Handling Trump ("bullfighting"): 17:40–19:50
  • Europe's structural reform priorities: 20:52–24:01
  • Spanish economic and defense policy: 25:02–27:52
  • EU-US deal as “geopolitical defeat”: 28:24–30:15
  • Coalitions and credible leverage: 30:15–34:35
  • “All roads lead to [strengthening] Europe”: 34:35–36:00

Takeaway

This episode powerfully argues that Europe’s future resilience and influence hinge on strategic realism, self-empowerment, and a renewed sense of agency. "Limping along" is no longer sufficient: the EU must defend its rules, invest in its strengths, act collectively, and above all, set its own agenda—within an unsettling world where alliances shift and "might is right" increasingly defines the playing field.