NATO’s boss says Trump was right

Summary

Brussels Playbook Podcast – July 8, 2026

Episode Theme:
NATO’s Boss Says Trump Was Right: Defence Spending, EU Enlargement Disputes, and a Counterfeit Condom Warning

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Overview

This episode plunges into three lively topics shaping Brussels and the wider EU:

1. Stalled EU accession talks with Serbia amid controversy and political turmoil
2. The ongoing NATO summit and Secretary General Mark Rutte’s candid acknowledgment that Donald Trump was right to push Europe on defence spending
3. An unusual but important warning: 200,000 fake condoms circulating in Europe, according to the EU’s anti-fraud office

In usual brisk, conversational fashion, host Zoya Sheftalovich and POLITICO’s Katherine Carson (“Katie”) provide pithy insight, context, and a dose of humour.

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1. Serbia’s EU Membership Bid – Stuck in Place

[00:56 – 06:06]

Key Points:

• EU's Dilemma: Ambassadors meet today to decide if Serbia can open "Cluster 3" in its EU accession negotiations. Many doubt Serbia is ready, citing democratic backsliding and recent political crises.
  • “Serbia is not ready. It's in the midst of a political crisis… Students have been protesting for months… Serbia is very close to the Kremlin.” – Zoya [01:45]
• The Cluster System: Progress requires opening and eventually closing negotiation "clusters" on topics like the economy, social values, and the rule of law. Cluster 3 is unlikely to be opened due to pushback, mainly from the Netherlands.
• Arguments For and Against:
  • Skeptics: The Commission’s own confidential report highlights no progress on large corruption cases and ongoing human rights concerns.
  • Supporters: Stress that "opening a cluster" is not the same as quick accession, and that keeping Serbia engaged is crucial to counter Russian influence.
  • "If what we're doing is trying to play a game of hearts and minds… you don't want to be squashing any hope, any dream that Serbians might have of joining the EU, because that might actually curdle public sentiment against Europe and force Serbia even closer into the Kremlin's arms." – Zoya [03:28]
  • “If they keep stalling, it could be an incentive against future reforms and even push it closer towards Russia effectively.” – Katherine [04:15]
• Political Backdrop: Recent catastrophe at Novi Sad train station, major protests, hints at possible elections, but general instability clouds Serbia’s bid.

Notable Quote:

"On the one hand, the EU does want to encourage Serbia and Serbians, but on the other hand, they don't want to encourage Vucić and they don't want to reward bad behavior. So it's a real tricky one." – Zoya [04:30]

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2. Maureen Le Pen Sentencing – Quick Update

[04:30 – 06:06]

• French far-right leader Maureen Le Pen found guilty of EU funding embezzlement; her sentence is suspended, meaning she can run for president—albeit wearing an ankle monitor.
  • "She would have to do it while wearing an ankle monitor because she's under… So that complicates matters." – Zoya [05:00]
• Le Pen has vowed to run regardless.

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3. NATO Summit: Defence Spending, Trump, and Rutte’s Messaging

[06:10 – 12:31]

Key Points:

• Summit Mood: Ongoing NATO summit in Ankara, with leaders determined to show the alliance (and the U.S.) that Europe is finally stepping up on defence.
  • “A bit of a Trump management exercise… showing him the money, keeping things short, avoiding surprises.” – Zoya [06:10]
• Massive Contracts Announced:
  • Canadian submarine deal (largest in German history)
  • Euro allies investing in surveillance planes (“AWACS”) and missile systems, shifting more defence production to Europe
• Rutte’s Interview – The Main Event:
  • Mark Rutte, new NATO Secretary General, gives blunt and candid remarks to POLITICO’s Dasha Burns.
  • Message: Europe’s massive increase in defence spending is “transformational”—and it’s because of Trump’s relentless pressure.
    • “I strongly believe that the NATO we had only three or four years ago going forward would not have been sustainable: over-reliance on the United States, Europe not spending enough… All of this is now changing rapidly. And this is really great news.” – Mark Rutte [08:32]
  • Rutte openly credits Trump:
    • “This is President Trump basically achieving what since Eisenhower, American presidents tried to achieve, which is to equalize the defense spending between the US and Europe. Trump is now achieving that.” – Rutte [09:22]
  • Discussion of U.S. threats to penalize allies not moving to 5% spending; Rutte sidesteps:
    • “Every ally can decide how they want to keep the others to account… but here you see the success story.” – Rutte [09:22]

Rutte’s Diplomatic Tightrope:

• He flatters Trump, echoes his talking points, and highlights "shared adversaries" (Russia, China, North Korea, Iran) to cement US-EU unity.
• Zoya observes:
  • “It sounded to me like there was an audience of one for that interview and that audience was sitting in the White House…” – Zoya [11:30]
• Rutte avoids answering uncomfortable questions (e.g., about Trump pressuring FIFA for a soccer red card reversal), responding with humour:
  • “Oh, I haven't been watching the World Cup since the Netherlands were knocked out.” – Rutte [12:20]

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4. Fake Condoms Flooding the EU – Public Health Warning

[12:31 – 14:58]

Key Points:

• OLAF (EU Anti-Fraud Office) Alert: 200,000 counterfeit condoms seized, branded as a well-known company (unnamed in the report), traced back to a Chinese exporter.
  • Entered the EU mislabelled as “toys”—helping them bypass medical device checks.
  • “Fake condoms are dangerous because they can allow for unwanted pregnancies... allow the spread of sexually transmitted infections... can expose you to unsafe chemicals.” – Katherine [13:12]
• How to Spot a Fake:
  • Check for batch number and expiration date.
  • Look for EU health/safety certification.
  • Watch for poor printing or fake QR codes.
  • If the price is too good to be true—it probably is.
  • “Look for any like blurred or crappy printing on the packaging. And also, of course, the old adage, if it's too cheap to be true, it is too cheap to be true.” – Zoya [14:21]

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5. Listener Feedback: Schengen Border Delays

[15:00 – 16:00]

• A listener reports increased delays on Eurostar due to stricter border checks (“Angie from France”)
  • “Had to delay the train…but in a win for the Brits, on the London side she never had any problem because there are less rules… Brexit dividend!” – Zoya [15:57]

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Serbia:

  • “When is a reform not a reform? Right. So Belgrade has a lot of reforms that it can point to...But I don't think that answer is playing very well in Brussels, because they're saying, what if you're undoing backsliding? That's not exactly progress.” – Katherine [02:55]

• On NATO & Trump:

  • “Trump is now achieving that [equalizing defence spending].” – Mark Rutte [09:22]
  • “It was also kind of interesting, you know, like as a person who stayed up for the soccer, for the football World cup, he also talked about that red card.” – Zoya [11:57]
  • "He's trying to toe this line between being the NATO Sikhgen that calls Trump daddy and uses intense flattery to keep him on side while doing the actual diplomacy behind closed doors..." – Katherine [10:12]

• On Fake Condoms:

  • "Fake condoms are dangerous because they can allow for unwanted pregnancies, they can allow the spread of sexually transmitted infections. And here's the counterfeit part. They can expose you to unsafe chemicals." – Katherine [13:12]
  • “Look for any like blurred or crappy printing on the packaging… if you're paying a ridiculously low price, then you should be a bit worried.” – Zoya [14:21]

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Timestamps (for Key Segments)

• Serbia/EU Accession Debate: [00:56 – 06:06]
• Le Pen Verdict Update: [04:30 – 06:06]
• NATO Summit & Mark Rutte Interview (including Trump & spending): [06:10 – 12:31]
• Counterfeit Condoms Public Health Warning: [12:31 – 14:58]
• Listener Feedback – Border Delays: [15:00 – 16:00]

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Tone & Takeaways

• Original Tone: Conversational, wry humour, with clear-eyed political analysis. Zoya and Katherine deploy banter but cut swiftly to pressing policy details.
• Main Takeaway:
  • NATO’s future is being reshaped—under pressure and with uncharacteristic public credit—by Donald Trump’s aggressive push on European defence spending.
  • Enlargement fatigue continues, with Serbia’s accession frozen amid inter-EU mistrust and Balkan fragility.
  • And, as ever, “what’s moving Brussels” ranges from the grand (geopolitics) to the granular (fake condoms)—all with an eye to why it matters in your morning news cycle.

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[End of Summary]

Transcript

[A]

Good morning. It's Wednesday, July 8, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is quarrelsome as the EU disagrees over whether Serbia should move on to the next step in its membership process. Also on the pod, Mark Rutte tells NATO allies that Trump was right all along. And the EU's anti fraud office has a warning that there are 200,000 fake condoms in circulation across the bloc. Oh, dear, that's going to be troublesome. I'm Zoya Shektalovich, and with me today is senior finance reporter Katherine Carson. Hey, Katie.

[B]

Hi, Zoya. How's it going?

[A]

I mean, it's going well. I hope that. I hope that Europe isn't about to experience an unwanted baby boom because of these fake condoms.

[B]

I suppose it depends how active you are in that domain.

[A]

All right, let's not dilly dally. Let's get straight to our first topic. It is about so Serbia and its attempt to enter the eu, which has been kind of on hold for a while because of democratic backsliding. But today, the EU's 27ambassadors are going to be meeting in their co repair committee in Brussels, and they're going to essentially be tasked with the question of whether Serbia should move forward in its bid.

[B]

Exactly. And at the center of the discussion is about these things that are called clusters. So for the process of being able to join the eu, having these accession negotiations, you have to go through various negotiating chapters which are known as clusters. And today it's all a question of whether or not it's going to be able to open the new clusters, which are the reforms it needs to be able to make to align itself with things like the EU economy and social values and rule of law before they're able to join the bloc properly.

[A]

Yeah. And this is cluster three that might get open today, or actually probably isn't going to get open today. And this is what our colleague Gabriel Gavin is reporting. So Gabriel has spoken with various diplomats and officials, and he has found that while the commission is going to ask EU ambassadors to approve the opening of this cluster three of negotiations, the ambassadors from some countries are pushing back, and it's the Netherlands in particular that said it's going to be vetoing this move altogether. And basically they're saying, look, Serbia is not ready. It's in the midst of a political crisis that has been ongoing ever since. There was this terrible catastrophe with the Novisad train station roof collapse where people died. Students have been protesting for months. As a result of that, the President and the Prime Minister have sort of indicated they're going to have an election and they're not going to run again. But that hasn't really pleased anyone. And there's been lots of backsliding. And as our listeners will know, Serbia is very close to the Kremlin. President Vucic is quite close to Vladimir Putin. And so it's a difficult kind of case to make that Serbia has improved enough to enable it to open cluster three.

[B]

Exactly. And I think it's a question of when is a reform not a reform. Right. So Belgrade has a lot of reforms that it can point to. It says it's been making administrative reforms since 2022. It points to the fact that it has changed controversial laws that it brought in at the start of the year that were causing a lot of concern over judicial independence and the fight against corruption. But I don't think that answer is playing very well in Brussels, because they're saying, what if you're undoing backsliding? That's not exactly progress, and that's not exactly something we should be rewarding when we have countries like Ukraine that are waiting for accession and they're fighting against Russia.

[A]

Yeah. But the flip side of it is that the people who support this bid by Serbia to open the third cluster are saying, firstly, this isn't closing a cluster, it's just opening it. So then it will be up to Serbia if it does the work that it needs to do to complete that cluster, to close those chapters of negotiations. So this is no guarantee that Serbia is actually going to be able to enter the bloc. And then the other thing they say is that, look, if what we're doing is trying to play a game of hearts and minds, where we are vying for influence in Serbia, and on the other side is the Kremlin, you don't want to be squashing any hope, any dream that Serbians might have of joining the eu, because that might actually curdle public sentiment against Europe and force Serbia even closer into the Kremlin's arms.

[B]

Exactly. So in Gabriel's story, Serbia's EU integration minister said that Serbia is, you know, it's frustrated. It's been stuck at this point in the accession negotiations for five years. He said that if they keep stalling, it could be an incentive against future reforms and even push it closer towards Russia effectively.

[A]

But the flip side of it is that the commission, in its own confidential report on Serbia, which Politico has obtained, said that there have been significant human rights concerns and found that there's been no progress in a number of large scale corruption cases. So, you know, in its own findings, the commission is saying, look, Serbia is not doing so well. So I think this is kind of the problem, that on the one hand, the EU does want to encourage Serbia and Serbians, but on the other hand, they don't want to encourage Vuchi and they don't want to reward bad behavior. So it's a real tricky one. We'll see what happens today at that co repair meeting. Katie before we move to our second topic, let's quickly update our listeners on this big Maureen Le Pen verdict that came through yesterday. So listeners will remember we've been talking about this for months. She was charged and found guilty on embezzlement of EU funding charges. Now the court has found her guilty, has confirmed that guilty verdict, but it did reduce her sentence and suspended the sentence. So she technically could now run for president, but she would have to do it while wearing an ankle monitor because she's under. So that complicates matters. Mari Le Pen last night gave an interview and she said that she was going to run. So we'll see how she does with that ankle monitor. But it's going to be an interesting French presidential campaign given the top candidate of the party that's ahead in the polls is running from home. Right, Katie, enough of Le Pen. Let's go to the sword.

[B]

La Pen is mightier than the sword, or maybe not.

[A]

Alrighty, Katie, our second story of the day. It is again, Naito, because this big summit is continuing in Ankara today. Yesterday we were talking about the fact that this is going to be a bit of a Trump management exercise of like showing him the money, keeping things short, avoiding surprises and convincing Trump that Europe is taking its defence seriously. But things are starting to kick off today.

[B]

Yeah. So definitely after arrival day of the summit, that show me the money approach is definitely playing out. We have, in fact been shown the money. So there have been tons of contract announcements that have run into tens of billions of euros. Canada has said that it's looking at submarines that are built in Germany. Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, says that would be the biggest defence contract in German history. NATO allies are looking at updates to surveillance planes to replace an aging fleet that they have.

[A]

The awacs. I love the word awacs. It's some sort of surveillance plane is what it is.

[B]

Anyway. There's also been a package of missile deals that were intended to move more production from the US To Europe. So there's going to be more air defence missiles, more European capacity to Maintain the Patriot interceptors, which are those missiles Ukraine is currently using to shoot down Russian attacks. So very much a contract. Heavy business, Heavy art of the big NATO deal. Heavy day.

[A]

Yeah, absolutely. And speaking of the art of the big NATO deal, Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO, he actually sat down with our colleague Dasha Burns, who hosts POLITICO's the Conversation podcast podcast to talk about essentially what's been happening in Ankara and what he hopes to achieve. And his message wasn't particularly subtle. He basically said, look, admit it, Trump was right, guys. You know, Europe was spending too little, NATO was too dependent on the US and yeah, allies should be pushing towards a much bigger defense spending. And now they're doing that because of Trump. So let's have a bit of a listen here. It's Dasha Burns with Mark Rutter. Mr. Secretary, this summit begins under extraordinary circumstances. NATO is asking allies to undertake the biggest increase in defense spending in history. Russia's war in Ukraine still rages on and now escalating. The conflict in the Middle east is still continuing. And questions remain about America's long term role in European security. Have you ever walked into a NATO summit where the, the stakes felt higher than they do this morning?

[C]

I feel excited. Not enough people, I think, have already grasped that this is transformational. It is really fundamental what is going to happen. And basically many people think, hey, why do we have to do all of this and spend extra money? And of course, Ukraine, most of us, of course agree it has to be done. But this is transformational for only one reason, because I strongly believe that the NATO we had only three or four years ago going forward would not have been sustainable over reliance on the United States, Europe not spending enough, not producing enough, both in the US and in Europe. And all of this is now changing rapidly. And this is really great news.

[A]

Of course, so much of this has been driven by President Trump. And US Ambassador Matt Whitaker says Washington is now considering consequences for allies that don't have a credible path to 5%. Do you agree with that approach?

[C]

Well, of course, every ally can decide how they want to keep the others to account, so that's totally fine. But that's between allies individually. What I'm looking at is the overall numbers. And here you see the success story. The success story is that when you combine 2025 and 2026, Canadians and Europeans spending more than $250 billion extra compared to 2024. This is amazing. I would say we, we have to do this because of Russia. We also have to do this because of equalizing European spending with the United States. And this is President Trump basically achieving what since Eisenhower, American presidents tried to achieve, which is to equalize the defense spending between the US and Europe. Trump is now achieving that.

[A]

So that was pretty optimistic, Rutte, that we heard from Katie.

[B]

Yeah, I think he's the consummate diplomat, let's say. But he did have a couple of really important messages in there. I mean, it's clear that he's trying to toe this line between being the NATO Sikhgen that calls Trump daddy and uses intense flattery to keep him on side while doing the actual diplomacy behind closed doors to keep everybody else on board with also using a lot of Trump's language and the US's pet issues to sort of push the overall direction of the alliance. So he talked about Trump achieving something that the US has wanted to change since Eisenhower, of making a historic correction inside NATO, of essentially pushing the alliance in more of a European direction, having the Europeans stamp up more money, stamp up more production, not rely on Washington as much. And he also even sort of extended that flattery to the Iran war. He talked about Europe having been a sort of jumping off spot for the US aerial operations and the fact that maybe that Operation Epic Fury couldn't even have happened without all of the help that the Europeans were kind of giving. And at the same time, he's also sort of framing the common challenges that the Americans and the Europeans are facing together. So he talks a lot about Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and the threats that are coming from those countries working together. So he's fostering this narrative of there being shared adversaries between Europe and the us and that it not all being about who's pulling funding and who's invading Greenland.

[A]

It sounded to me like there was an audience of one for that interview and that audience was sitting in the White House or actually also probably en route to Ankara himself. It really did sound like it was a very Trump focused interview. So I think the old management of Trump is still, still happening. But it was also kind of interesting, you know, like as a person who stayed up for the soccer, for the football World cup, he also talked about that red card.

[B]

Okay, I've said the consummate diplomat, let's also say possibly the master of the non answer or the master of sidestepping the answer. So it's not easy to go toe to toe with Dasha, but he's pretty good at it. He was asked about the red card fiasco with the us, Donald Trump personally intervening with FIFA to Try and get a red card withdrawn so that one of their team could play. Let's say it didn't make a difference in the end. The US lost to Belgium, but he said, oh, I haven't been watching the World cup since the Netherlands were knocked out.

[A]

That's so convenient.

[B]

Oh, very convenient. I'm sure they're not showing it anywhere in Ankara.

[A]

Impossible. Impossible. Well, look, that quote is in the full interview. So folks will have to listen to the interview on our website. Or if you listen to the podcast version of the conversation that will be dropping on Friday, the link will be in our show notes. All right, Katie, let's wrap it up with our third story of the day. Sawyer. It's a little bit of public service journalism. Listen, it's a public health announcement. It really is. It's serious. It's serious. Katie, stop giggling. The European Anti Fraud Office olaf, it's warning that there are counterfeit condoms on the loose in Europe and the fake

[B]

condoms are using the name and logo of a well known brand. So I'm gonna put my sex ed teacher hat on now and say fake condoms are dangerous because they can allow for unwanted pregnancies, they can allow the spread of sexually transmitted infections. And here's the counterfeit part. They can expose you to unsafe chemicals.

[A]

Oh, yikes. Well, we don't actually. The OLAF press release did not mention the name of the company that these things are being ascribed to. So what they said is that the counterfeit ones are coming from a common source in China. And they've been able to trace this cross border trafficking route and identify the exporter behind the shipment. And there are around about 200,000 of these things out there. Now they were able to disrupt the flow of these. Of these fake condoms. My God, I can't stop with these puns. They were able to disrupt the flow, but you know, there might still be some out there, right?

[B]

Yes. And this was also because they were able to get through customs by being labelled as toys rather than medical devices. So I will leave you to your own interpretations of that. But Zoya, how do you identify a fake condom if we don't know the names of these things?

[A]

So there are a few things you've got to look out for. Firstly, you want a batch number and an expiry date on the old boxerino. You want to find the health and safety certifications. Some have some anti counterfeit measures like a QR code that you can scan to check them out. Although I don't know that I'd be scanning random QR codes on boxes of condoms that might be fake. So I'm going to leave that one up to your listener discretion. But yeah, look for any like blurred or crappy printing on the packaging. And also, of course, the old adage, if it's too cheap to be true, it is too cheap to be true. So, you know, if you're paying a ridiculously low price, then you should be a bit worried.

[B]

Stay safe out there, people.

[A]

Actually, I wouldn't mind hearing from our listeners. Have you folks spotted any fake products out there that might have slipped through the EU customs net? You know, what have you found? What have you seen? Let us know. Link is in the show notes. Hey, Katie, you know yesterday we were speaking about this chaotic entry exit system that's been wreaking havoc at Schengen Borders. We've been speaking about the Eurostar and we've had someone write in about their experience on the Eurostar.

[B]

I am so glad to hear that the one woman crusade I have been running against the Eurostar delays is now a two woman crusade because we've had Angie from France write in. She says she's a Eurostar pro because she travels to London twice a month. But recently the border checks have been a bit of a hassle. She says. She says last Friday there were so many of us still waiting at passport control that the train had to be delayed. But in a win for the Brits, she said on the London side she never had any problem because there are less rules.

[A]

Oh well, Brexit dividend.

[B]

Brexit dividend if there ever was one.

[A]

Alrighty folks, that's just about it from us today. But a reminder, we have a few tote bags left over, so if you send us a little video on WhatsApp about how you found us, what stories you've enjoyed from the pod. Maybe it's today's about the counterfeit condoms. I don't know. Speak to you folks tomorrow.