EU Confidential – "Notes on a Scandal: Will a Fraud Probe Upend the EU?"

Published: December 5, 2025 | Host: Sarah Wheaton (POLITICO) | Episode Length: ~41 minutes

Episode Theme:

This episode centers on a major fraud probe shaking the EU’s diplomatic world. Triggered by raids and high-profile detentions connected to the EU’s new Diplomatic Academy, the investigation sparks debate about transparency, accountability, and systemic weaknesses within Brussels institutions. The episode also marks the first anniversary of the current European Commission, assessing its handling of crises and Europe’s position on the world stage.

Detailed Breakdown

1. Brussels Scandal: Dawn Raids, Detentions, and Uncertainty

(00:57–18:09)

Setting the Scene

• A stunned Brussels: Early Tuesday raids across Belgium linked to alleged fraud around the startup of the EU Diplomatic Academy in Bruges; unusually public detentions, including ex-EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini.
• The action came just as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen marked her first year into a new term, colliding stability hopes with crisis.

Key Players

• Federica Mogherini: Former EU foreign policy chief; became rector of the College of Europe in 2020.
• Stefano Sanino: Senior diplomat (formerly EAS, then Commission head for Middle East/North Africa); implicated and questioned.
• College of Europe: Prestigious institution at the heart of the investigation.

What Are the Allegations?

• Allegation: EAS (EU diplomatic corps) tipped off the College of Europe about the tender for establishing a Diplomatic Academy before the official call, letting the College tailor its bid and potentially shut out other (potentially lucrative) university applicants.
  • Zoya Sheftilovich: “The allegations related to someone from the EAS tipping off the College of Europe about the tender before it opened so that the College could essentially tailor their tender.” (05:00)
• Nature of the claims: Not about bribes or cash in hand, but favoritism and circumventing transparent tender procedures.
  • Zoya: “I think there is no allegation that someone has pocketed money… but we have to think about the fact that other universities tendered… It is EU taxpayer money, so they do need to be accountable.” (07:25)

The Raids

• Belgian police searched private homes, including Mogherini’s, the EAS building, and the College of Europe. Phones and laptops were seized. (05:53)
• Three people were briefly detained—no flight risk found, all released the same day.

Aftermath & Fallout

• Resignations: Sanino announces retirement; Mogherini steps down as College of Europe head.
• Statements: Both deny wrongdoing, express respect for the process.
  • “Both of them have said: we respect the process, trust the process… they are not accepting there has been any wrongdoing.” (08:49)
• Unclear how long the investigation will dominate headlines ("How long will this scandal continue capturing the town?” – Zoya, 09:20).

Brussels’ Scandal Pattern & Institutional Frustration

• Recent years have featured Qatargate, Huawei-gate, etc.—scandals with dramatic beginnings but little follow-up or accountability (“they just fizzle out,” 09:32).
• Max Guerrera: “[MEPs complain that] Belgian police are always very exaggerated… the relationship between the Belgian authorities and the Parliament is really hitting rock bottom…” (09:57)
• MEPs’ frustration as investigations drag on with few results. Procedural missteps (immunity mishandled in Huawei case) erode trust further. (10:20–11:34)

Public Faith & Systemic Weaknesses

• Sarah: “There are not good transparency rules… [but] the police overshoot and then undermine their own credibility.”
• Zoya: “Faith is undermined in the Belgian authorities… What you get is this sense of lawlessness, one rule for us, one rule for them... EU’s enemies weaponize these arguments: ‘How dare you lecture us on democracy when you can’t look after your own backyard?’” (11:59)
• The risk: apathy and disengagement from EU citizens, loss of legitimacy for the Brussels system.

Commissioners’ Response

• Kayakalas (new foreign policy chief, replaces Mogherini): Distances self; emphasizes anti-corruption reforms ("Not me Gov,” 13:47).
• Von der Leyen: Similar distancing; stresses EAS as institutionally separate from the Commission.
  • “The Commission’s line: ‘This has nothing to do with us. Don’t look here; look over there.’” – Zoya (14:54)

What’s Next?

• Zoya: Watching for further revelations, the fate of the investigation, potential for deeper institutional shakeup.
• Max: Monitoring how political groups react—a mix of silence, “concern,” or opportunistic outrage (far left & right seize on “Brussels is corrupt” narrative, 15:54).
• Viktor Orbán’s party in Hungary leveraging the news as a gift ahead of elections.

Hungary’s Response (17:03)

• Balaj Orbán (Hungarian PM’s advisor): “Again, another sign of double standards. Brussels… is always lecturing on rule of law, but [it] has problems of its own that are not treated seriously.”

2. The Commission’s First Year: Scoring the Team

(19:27–41:12)

Rapid “Tour de Table”: Rating von der Leyen’s Commission

(19:52–21:34)

• Jan Czynski (Defense Editor): 7/10 – "Could have been better, but the war in Ukraine upended priorities. Defense is now top of the agenda.” (20:06)
• Doug Busvine (Trade/Competition Editor): 5/10 – “Stuck with a one-sided deal by the Americans. On competition, nothing much happening.” (20:49)
• Carl Matheson (Climate): 5/10 – “Managing the climate beat, but not excelling.” (21:04)
• Zoya Sheftilovich: 5/10 – “All of the things they did, they’re now undoing. It might’ve been a 10, but now we’re going backwards.” (21:25)

Trade, Trump, and “One-Sided” Deals

• Trade policy dominated by Trump’s hard line.
  • Doug: “Major threat by Trump to impose punitive tariffs… ended up with a 15% baseline, EU to scrap all tariffs on US industrial goods. That's a one-sided deal. It was a tough negotiation… could unravel.” (21:53)
• Commission defends deal as “less bad” than others, leveraging a cap ("all-inclusive” tariff) as an insurance policy. (22:39)
• EU seeks new partners (India, Indonesia, Mercosur), but progress is mixed and time is tight (few days left in the year for deals). (23:23)

Europe’s Global Standing and Constraints

• “Beacon of values” narrative tested as EU pivots to working with like-minded democracies. Retaliatory/inclusive trade tools limited by slow, unanimous EU decision-making. (24:51)
• Defense: EU slowly “toughening up”—new programs like SAFE (€150bn low-interest loans) aimed at reducing long-term US dependency, but real power still with members, and collective action lags. (26:04)
  • Jan Czynski: “It’s a very long road to lessen dependency on the US… There’s still hope for a post-Trump era, but now Europe is trying to be more independent in defense policy, adopting a French line.” (26:04)

Leadership & Diplomacy

• Von der Leyen now often representing EU abroad, having learned to navigate Trump’s transactional style, but constrained compared to nation-state leaders:
  • Zoya: “[Trump] only respects raw power. Von der Leyen is the most powerful in the EU room, but her power is limited by the nature of the EU as a democratic body. That’s the limitation.” (28:48)
• Example of constrained power: use of Russian frozen assets (Belgium’s legal fears stall promised Ukraine funds).
  • Zoya: “Belgium is also taking the mickey a little bit—pushing their luck and demanding a blank check.” (30:28, 32:29)

The Agony of Competitiveness and the “Pivoting Commission”

• Mario Draghi’s 800 billion euro investment “or slow agony” warning hasn’t been heeded—pace of decline accelerates.
  • Doug: “Deepening agony… Deindustrialization at a high rate… Decline is agonizing and accelerating.” (34:13)
• Teresa Ribera (senior Socialist, Commission’s new vice president) attempts to hold the “Green Deal” line, but her brief is split between competing goals (clean, just, and competitive transition). Progress is fragile. (35:42)
• The EU proved isolated at recent UN climate talks, having to go it alone without a US partner.
  • Carl: “First time ever at a COP with no US delegate. EU eventually found some unity, but faces a world increasingly run by BRICS and petrostates. The EU stands alone.” (37:41)

Summing Up: Is This a Geopolitical Commission?

• Jan Czynski: “Wannabe geopolitical commission—dramatically limited by institutional shortcomings.” (39:28)
• Doug Busvine: “A runaround commission—improvising, not strategizing.” (39:47)
• Carl Matheson: “Missing the boat—clean energy investment falling; big opportunity fading.” (40:04)
• Zoya Sheftilovich: “It’s the pivoting commission—constantly reacting, sometimes reversing direction, adapting but at the cost of core ideals.” (40:30)

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• "The fact that faith, public faith, is undermined in the Belgian authorities... is a very dangerous thing for faith in the EU as a whole." — Zoya Sheftilovich (11:59)
• "Belgian police are always very exaggerated." — Anonymous MEP to Max Guerrera (09:57)
• "How dare you lecture us on rule of law when you can’t even get your act together in your own backyard?" — Zoya Sheftilovich paraphrasing EU critics (12:14)
• "It’s the pivoting commission... those pivots have often taken it exactly in the opposite direction to the direction of travel in the previous term." — Zoya Sheftilovich (40:32)
• "It’s making it up as it goes along. It’s improvisation, not strategy." — Doug Busvine (39:47)
• "The EU stands alone in a world increasingly dominated by the BRICS." — Carl Matheson (37:41)

Key Timestamps

• 00:57 – Brussels stunned by high-profile raids; scandal breaks
• 03:02 – Zoya Sheftilovich joins to unpack the investigation
• 04:23–05:41 – The allegations explained: tip-offs, tenders, favoritism
• 08:32 – Mogherini and Sanino’s reactions; early resignations
• 09:32–11:59 – Scandal fatigue, procedural missteps, institutional frustrations
• 13:28–15:08 – Institutional distancing; Commission’s and EAS’ reactions
• 17:03 – Hungary’s (Balaj Orban) take: “double standards”
• 19:52 – Commission Report Card: panelists score one year on
• 21:53 – Trump’s “one-sided” trade deals and Europe’s new strategy
• 26:04 – Defense: Europe’s steps and continued dependence on the US
• 28:48 – Von der Leyen, Trump, and the limits of EU leverage
• 30:28 – Stalled moves on Russian assets and EU funding for Ukraine
• 34:13 – Draghi’s “agony” warning for EU competitiveness
• 37:41 – COP: EU stands alone at global climate summits
• 39:28–40:32 – Defining this Commission: “pivoting,” “wannabe geopolitical,” “runaround,” “missing the boat”

Tone & Style

• Conversational but pointed; witty, sometimes dry, and occasionally self-deprecating (“I love a good scandal, but…they just fizzle out,” Sarah, 09:32).
• Emphasis on skepticism, reality checks, and the persistent paradoxes at the heart of EU governance.
• Honest about institutional limitations and political dynamics, but never cynical—frustration is balanced with a continued call for accountability.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode pulls you into the heart of a mushrooming Brussels scandal, showing how the hunt for wrongdoing sometimes says as much about investigators and institutions as about any suspects. It moves briskly from breaking news dissection to a wider evaluation of the Commission’s first year, revealing an EU buffeted by outside shocks, internal drift, and the limits of its own rulebook. The cast of POLITICO’s pros dig into intrigue, bureaucracy, and geopolitics with clarity, candor, and an eye on what’s at stake for ordinary Europeans.

To dive deeper:
Full episode and show notes available at POLITICO EU Confidential.