Of Daddies and Queens — from Trump to von der Leyen — and who’s really in charge in Europe

Summary

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Episode Overview

Podcast: EU Confidential
Title: Of Daddies and Queens — from Trump to von der Leyen — and who’s really in charge in Europe
Host: Sarah Wheaton
Date: June 27, 2025
Duration: ~33 minutes

Main Theme:
This episode explores the recent NATO summit in The Hague—where Donald Trump was given the “royal” treatment and prompted a controversial new 5% defense spending pledge—as well as subsequent EU Council meetings in Brussels grappling with how, or if, Europe can live up to such commitments. The episode also dives into turmoil inside the EU over the abrupt withdrawal of a major Green Deal legislative file, exposing new fractures and power struggles around Ursula von der Leyen’s leadership and the shifting coalitions in European politics.

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1. Trump at the NATO Summit: The “Daddy” Analogy (01:03–10:00)

Key Points

• Trump’s Visit:
  Donald Trump attended a NATO summit in The Hague, received lavish attention, and departed happy—claiming NATO is “not a rip off anymore” following a new defense spending pledge of 5% of GDP from member states.
  • “He left the Hague smiling, calling NATO quote, ‘not a rip off anymore’ and claiming credit for a major win.” — Sarah Wheaton (01:29)
• Summit Atmosphere:
  The entire summit was meticulously orchestrated around Trump and marked by nervous anticipation, given his history of volatile comments.
  • “The vibe was a lot like that AWACS plane pulling up as Trump was arriving... All very quiet and sedate, all until Trump arrived. And the whole thing was orchestrated around him.” — Nick Winnicker (05:24)
• The “Daddy” Moment:
  Dutch PM Mark Rutte reportedly called Trump “daddy,” leading to both cringing and debate about whether this flattery was simply strategic.
  • “Apparently goes through sort of treating him like the kind of daddy figure of NATO, which is apparently, he really liked.” — Nick Winnicker (06:10)
• French Perspective:
  French officials pushed back on the narrative that Europe was merely trying to please Trump, emphasizing instead the theme of European sovereignty and self-reliance.
• Cringeworthy or Strategic?
  Some European officials found the approach humiliating, while others insisted it was a calculated effort to keep U.S. commitment to NATO.

Memorable Quote:
“It was incredibly cringeworthy, you might say, for the Europeans, who are already committing 5% of their GDP to defense just to please Trump. But when you add on top of that the obsequious language…that's what it was all about.” — Nick Winnicker (06:31)

Timestamps

• [01:03] Trump’s red carpet and “not a rip off” comment
• [04:05] Clea Calcutt describes flying with French armed forces over The Hague
• [05:24] Trump’s arrival changes the summit’s mood
• [06:10] The “daddy” moment, its reception, and controversy

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2. Can Europe Afford its Defense Promises? (08:02–11:16)

Key Points

• 5% GDP Defense Pledge:
  Post-summit, European leaders struggle with how to fund the massive new defense commitment—some countries, like France and Italy, find the target unattainable due to fiscal constraints.
  • “Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni…said, you know what, none of these options are adapted to us. We’re a country that has not only sky high deficits but also sky high debt.” — Nick Winnicker (09:10)
• Financial Gymnastics:
  Expect “magical accounting”—countries will creatively use EU funds or loopholes to appear to meet targets, though in reality, many will fall short.
• Realism vs. Rhetoric:
  Observers note that, for several member states, the 5% spending goal is simply unrealistic—“a joke.”

Timestamps

• [08:02] Defense pledge fallout at EU Council summit
• [09:10] Difficulties for Italy and other deficit-heavy countries

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3. Sanctions, Ukraine, and the Middle East: EU’s Struggles on Security and Diplomacy (10:00–15:52)

Key Points

• Sanctions on Russia:
  Reaching consensus on the 18th package of sanctions proves tricky, with some countries (notably Hungary and Slovakia) wavering or threatening vetoes.

  “Diplomats are saying we’re going to get there. But right now it’s unclear what the pathway is.” — Clea Calcutt (10:16)

• Ukraine’s Absence:
  Volodymyr Zelenskyy notably skips both summits, marking a shift from previous high-profile appearances. Trump’s private meeting with Zelenskyy yields no concrete deliverables.

• EU-Israel Trade Relations:
  The Commission’s review finds Israel failing on humanitarian provisions, but EU leaders are unable to agree on any action—demonstrating division and paralysis on Middle East policy.

  • “We may well end up with this remarkable situation where there was a definitive finding that Israel is breaking humanitarian law and a definitive lack of action from Brussels.” — Sarah Wheaton (13:47)

• Trade Tensions with the U.S.:
  Two camps emerge: one favoring a quick compromise with the U.S. over tariffs, another—led by France—demanding tougher conditions. Donald Trump directly calls Emmanuel Macron during the talks, signaling ongoing U.S. pressure.

Timestamps

• [10:00] Sanctions wrangling: Hungary and Slovakia’s positions
• [11:16] Why Ukraine and Zelenskyy are less prominent this time
• [12:19] EU-Israel trade debate and humanitarian law
• [14:10] EU-U.S. trade talks; Macron receives a call from Trump (15:04)

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4. Brussels in Turmoil: The Green Claims Directive Meltdown (17:11–32:45)

Key Points

• Shock Withdrawal:
  The European Commission unexpectedly threatened to withdraw the Green Claims Directive—a major sustainability law requiring companies to back up environmental claims—after intense lobbying and late-stage negotiations.
  • “No one’s really buying that explanation…Fondr Lyon is batting down accusations that she bowed to heavy pressure from her own European People’s Party as well as the far right.” — Sarah Wheaton (17:00)
• Political Blame Game:
  The official justification was “too much red tape for small businesses,” but critics accuse von der Leyen of capitulating to pressure from the EPP (center-right) and far right, alienating her centrist and progressive allies.
  • “They were basically accusing the Commission of bypassing the Parliament…to side with the far right.” — Max Guerrero (22:36)
• Backlash from Allies:
  Renew and Socialist groups (who helped elect von der Leyen) feel betrayed, warning they could block her future legislative agenda unless she honors coalition promises.
• Green Deal’s Fate:
  Climate correspondent Carl Matheson argues von der Leyen is fiercely proud of the Green Deal and seeking to preserve its core—but acknowledges increased pressure from business, the center-right, and far right.
  • “All the reporting that I've done over years is that she's intensely proud of this…But she really is trying to cling onto the core of the grand deal.” — Carl Matheson (24:10)
• A Fraying Coalition:
  Discussion turns to whether von der Leyen or the EPP actually controls the legislative agenda, with some arguing power has shifted away from her to party boss Manfred Weber.

Memorable Quotes

“If you don’t play ball with us and you start, you know, siding with the far right, they can make the legislative process lower, they can kill files in Parliament, especially because we have big files coming.” — Max Guerrero (26:51)

“Ursula von der Leyen…centralizes power…This is Ursula von der Leyen’s commission and…the buck really has to stop with her.” — Carl Matheson (31:23)

“I think the EPP is the one holding the power, not von der Leyen that much anymore.” — Max Guerrero (32:02)

Timestamps

• [17:11] Green Claims Directive sudden withdrawal
• [21:28] Parliament outrage; accusations of Commission “siding with the right”
• [24:10] The “Green backlash” and pressure on von der Leyen’s legacy
• [26:34] Parliamentary leverage threats and pending legislation
• [29:41] Teresa Ribera’s internal role as “guard dog” of the Green Deal
• [31:23] Who’s really in charge: von der Leyen or the EPP?

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5. Who’s in Charge? Daddies, Queens, and Shifting Power in Europe (31:06–end)

Key Points

• Von der Leyen under Fire:
  The episode’s close returns to the metaphor of “daddies” and “queens”—questioning whether Trump, European leaders, or von der Leyen herself is steering the agenda.
• Growing Instability:
  With mounting pressure from all sides and a divided base, von der Leyen’s authority is increasingly challenged.
  • “Is it Queen Ursula or is she accountable to her EPP court? We’ll be watching.” — Sarah Wheaton (32:45)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• Nick Winnicker (on Europe’s posture toward Trump):
  “The Europeans [are] bending over backwards to convince Trump to stay in NATO…committing a huge part of their economy, and then sucking up to the guy in a kind of craven way, and that’s what it was all about.” (07:39)
• Sarah Wheaton (on trade calls):
  “What a great moment to get attention from your fellow leaders by being like… ‘Excuse me, but I have to go take a call from Donald. I’ll be right back.’” (15:52)
• Carl Matheson (on the EU Green Deal):
  “She stood up in 2019 in one of her first speeches as Commission president and said the European Green Deal is Europe’s new growth model…and her legacy.” (24:10)

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Structure by Timestamps

| Time | Segment Summary | |----------------|:--------------| | 01:03–04:05 | Trump’s VIP visit at The Hague; the 5% NATO defense deal | | 04:05–07:05 | Inside the NATO summit (“Daddy” moment and orchestration) | | 07:39–10:00 | Criticism from France; European “contortions” for Trump | | 08:02–10:00 | Reality check: how will countries pay for defense? | | 10:00–11:16 | Sanctions on Russia—Slovakia and Hungary’s shifting stances | | 11:16–12:19 | Ukraine’s absence and Trump’s Zelenskyy meeting | | 12:19–14:10 | Israel trade review and lack of EU consensus on action | | 14:10–15:52 | EU-US trade tensions; Macron’s timely call with Trump | | 17:11–21:28 | Green Claims Directive shock withdrawal, EPP and far-right pressure | | 21:28–24:10 | Parliament’s anger, split in Commission, impact on Green Deal | | 24:10–27:46 | Von der Leyen’s core beliefs tested; Parliamentary leverage | | 29:41–31:23 | Teresa Ribera’s role and Council vs. Commission blame game | | 31:23–32:45 | Is von der Leyen or the EPP in charge? An open question |

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Conclusion

This episode paints a vivid, sometimes satirical picture of power games at the heart of European politics—where diplomatic theater collides with hard realities on defense spending, sanctions, and climate policy. The “daddy” moment at NATO and the meltdown over the Green Claims Directive expose uncomfortable truths: European leaders remain fixated on appeasing American whims, even as their own internal divisions escalate. Ursula von der Leyen’s second term is shaping up to be even more turbulent, as old coalitions fray and no one seems entirely certain who is calling the shots in Brussels.

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For further reading and latest summit updates, visit POLITICO EU.

Transcript

[Carl Matheson]

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[Nick Winnicker]

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[Marianne Gros]

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[Nick Winnicker]

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[Max Guerrero]

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[Nick Winnicker]

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[Sarah Wheaton]

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[Nick Winnicker]

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[Sarah Wheaton]

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[Nick Winnicker]

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[Sarah Wheaton]

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[Carl Matheson]

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[Sarah Wheaton]

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[Nick Winnicker]

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[Sarah Wheaton]

Donald Trump walked the red carpet, dined with the Dutch royals, spent the night at their palace. And then, in the ongoing effort to make sure he didn't get grumpy, the actual discussion with other NATO leaders lasted barely over two hours. A record short.

[Carl Matheson]

Well, thank you very much.

[Nick Winnicker]

This has been an honor.

[Carl Matheson]

Want to thank them for the royal.

[Nick Winnicker]

Treatment they've given us. Couldn't come. Couldn't have been nicer.

[Sarah Wheaton]

He left the Hague smiling, calling NATO quote, not a rip off anymore and claiming credit for a major win. A bold new pledge to spend 5% of GDP on defense.

[Nick Winnicker]

And they said, you did it, sir. You did it.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Well, I don't know if I did.

[Nick Winnicker]

It, but I think I did.

[Sarah Wheaton]

So the so called daddy, as NATO chief Mark Ruta called Trump, went home. So I guess that means Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and the other EU leaders would be children in this analogy. Well, they came here to Brussels and they're still playing, that is, they're trying to figure out how to pay for all the tanks and warplanes. I'm Sarah Wheaton, host of EU Confidential. As you can hear, we're not in our cozy studio. We're in the press zone at the Europa Building. We're covering two major summits. This, the NATO meeting in the Hague where Trump got the royal treatment, and this EU gathering here in Brussels where the real work begins. Leaders are holed up upstairs. Aides are dashing between closed door meetings. The espresso machines are working overtime. On the agenda, everything from migration Trade, the Middle east, as well as the fresh sanctions on Russia and, of course, defense. How far is Europe really willing to go to defend itself, with or without America? And how much is it really ready to pay for it? Later in the episode, we'll turn from a daddy to the queen, digging into a Brussels story that's just as explosive when it comes to the EU's internal politics. It's about Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. She's here in the building, too, and whether she still has the political backing to push through her agenda, or whether a rebellion is brewing inside her own informal coalition that could make the rest of her term difficult. But first, let's learn what really went down in the Hague and what's unfolding here in Brussels. And who better to do that with than my Politico colleagues, Clea Calcutt, our senior correspondent, usually based in Paris, and Nick Winnicker, our chief foreign affairs correspondent. Both of them are fresh from covering the NATO summit and here with me. Okay, so, Claya, you were covering the Hague summit. And when we say that, we don't mean that you were on the ground at the Hague summit. You were literally helping provide air cover. Tell us about that.

[Clea Calcutt]

Yes, so I went out with the French armed forces on a French reconnaissance plane above the Hague. And so the mission there was to secure the airspace as leaders were landing in the Netherlands. And it was a great trip. Obviously, the threat level is low. You know, you're not going to see Russian invading forces. But it was all there to show what NATO can do. And so you had different levels of, of sort of backup plans, like one reconnaissance plane with a backup, another plane that was there, and then a third one who was there while one of them was refueling. All of that in case, you know, the control and command center down in the Netherlands broke down. I mean, it was all, it was all very impressive. And what actually happened is the airspace was so busy that the plane I was on almost, well, the collision alarm system was triggered by two fighter jets that came too close. And so suddenly, the, this hulking big AWACS plane just started ascending. And, you know, we were all sort of chucked back in our seats and the pilot had to rush to the cockpit. Anyway, that was the most excitement I've had in my reporting life.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Nick, you were on the ground at the Hague. Tell us first, what was the vibe like?

[Nick Winnicker]

The vibe was a lot like that AWACS plane pulling up as Trump was arriving. No, it was all very kind of quiet and sedate, all until Trump arrived. And the whole thing was orchestrated around him. And everyone was braced for some kind of terrible comment that he'd make, which he sort of did in the airplane in Air Force One, saying that, well, you know, Article 5 depends on your definition. And then this message came out from Mark Rutte where he's praising him to high heaven and say, you've got this huge win. And then it turned into a love fest shortly thereafter, and Trump said that he saw the value in NATO and. Yeah, and that was it.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Mark Ruta. Well, he's saying that he was misinterpreted, but there was a point where he basically called Trump daddy.

[Nick Winnicker]

Yeah, so that was the absurd moment of the summit. So there was obviously this huge effort to make Trump feel loved and welcomed. And that apparently goes through sort of treating him like the kind of daddy figure of NATO, which is apparently, he really liked. No, he likes me. I think he likes me.

[Sarah Wheaton]

If he doesn't, I'll let you know.

[Nick Winnicker]

I'll come back and I'll hit him hard. Okay? He did. He did it very affectionately. Daddy, you're my daddy. It was incredibly cringeworthy, you might say, for the Europeans, who are already committing 5% of their GDP to defense just to please Trump. But when you add on top of that the obsequious language which they are defending by saying, well, this is the tactic and this is how you convince Trump to remain in Naito, and they're hailing it as a success and saying anyone who's criticizing it is. Is not understanding. Well, that's up to you. To.

[Clea Calcutt]

Yeah. And what was really interesting about that is that afterwards in France, we got messages from French officials who were saying, you're making too much out of this sort of daddy business. You know, that that's not. Not at all what you should get out of the NATO summit. It was all about Europe basically standing up for itself, you know, committing to these 5%, which is about European sovereignty. So I think. I think, really, that whole story about how the Europeans were bending over backwards to please Trump, I think a lot of people didn't like to hear exactly what was going on.

[Nick Winnicker]

Yeah, I think that's exactly it. And that's really what was happening here, is the Europeans bending over backwards to convince Trump to stay in NATO, committing a huge part of their economy, and then sucking up to the guy in a kind of craven way, and that's what it was all about. And this summit here today is about finding the money to meet those promises, which is going to be very difficult.

[Sarah Wheaton]

But, yeah, well, yeah, Nick, that's actually the perfect segue indeed. You know, these countries all agreed in the end to this target of special spending, 5% of their GDP on defense. Some countries like Spain, Slovakia, saying they're going to look for different kind of pathways, flexibilities. But yeah, here now at the European Council summit back in Brussels, countries are kind of grappling with how they're going to achieve this goal.

[Clea Calcutt]

Yeah, and I think this is where we're all going to have to look carefully at the details and because every country seems to be doing possibly some magical accounting and doing different things. So for example, France, which you know, has no margin for maneuver on its budget, they want to apply for the safe fund, this fund of European money for defense. That's their way of reaching this 5%. But I don't know how they're going to bridge that gap. Other countries, you know, increasing their, their deficits. They're using, you know, the escape clauses. And so there's, there's a bit of a mix there, but whether the figures will ultimately add up, it's unclear.

[Nick Winnicker]

And there are some countries who are saying already that they can't see a path to get there. And we saw Italy's Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni coming out today and saying, you know what, none of these options are adapted to us. We're a country that has not only sky high deficits but also sky high debt. So we can't use these funding mechanism, these borrowing, EU backed loans. It's not going to help us. And indeed, you do have some situations, Italy, France, where, you know, the budget is in question in France, where it looks extremely difficult. And we've had commentators in the past couple of days say, you know what, the 5% target is a joke for some of these countries. It's not realistic and they're never going to get there. So that's kind of the come down from the big beautiful number that, that Trump wanted to put there.

[Sarah Wheaton]

The other issue related to security is the 18th package of sanctions against Russia to support Ukraine, Hungary. We kind of know we're not going to get there. Slovakia has been a different, a different case. And Claire, you've been following that.

[Clea Calcutt]

Yeah. So there were mixed messages coming out of Slovakia during the talks. Initially they signed off on language in the, you know, council conclusions that mentioned an 18th package of sanctions. So that was good news. However, then we got a message from the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fitzo on Facebook, who's saying that actually he might veto the package. So ultimately what diplomats are saying here is the talks are going to carry on. There's no white smoke. There is a sort of sense of cautious optimism. You know, diplomats are saying we're going to get there. But right now it's unclear what the pathway is. What we do know is that Hungary diplomats are confident that Hungary will oppose it, but not veto.

[Sarah Wheaton]

You know, one thing that hasn't come up, that usually comes up both when we're talking about NATO summits and European Council summits is there was usually like a drop by by Zelensky in the morning, but he's just kind of been a non factor.

[Nick Winnicker]

Yes. So Zelenskyy actually hasn't come to this council unlike what he's usually done. And even at the NATO summit before Ukraine was sort of erased in a way, usually features much more prominently. There was even some question of whether they'd be invited or not. We all know the history between Trump and Zelensky. He doesn't really like Zelenskyy. What did happen there was they had an hour long meeting which was away from cameras and supposedly it was a much warmer meeting. And Trump even sort of floated the possibility that the US could provide some more air defense systems. Free Ukraine. I would say the bottom line is that he didn't pledge anything concrete. He has not moved to pressure Russia, despite coming under, you know, a lot of pressure from allies to do so. And here at the Yuko. Well, there's in fact nothing new for Ukraine per se at this summit. It's kind of been a theme. Ukraine is financed through the rest of the year and there's just not a whole lot more forthcoming for them. So maybe Zelenskyy felt he had more pressing business in Kyiv than in Brussels.

[Sarah Wheaton]

And then another area where Europe is trying to potentially use trade or not to influence world events is the Middle East. The commission just finished its review of its essentially its trade agreement with Israel and whether Israel is adhering to humanitarian law, which is one of the provisions of that trade agreement. Nick, what did that review find and what are the leaders going to do about it?

[Nick Winnicker]

So the review found that Israel was not meeting the humanitarian provision in the agreement. And that's obviously created the question of, well, what do we do about this? Do we suspend the entire agreement? Do we suspend part of it? And there's been a lot of debate among countries in the past few weeks about this. And of course they've put it before the leaders tonight. What it looks like now is that there's is no immediate follow up. There isn't a majority in the room to suspend or even partially suspend this agreement. But you do have a group of countries pushing for more measures and saying, well, we got to pressure Israel to get more humanitarian aid into Gaza. And they have been pressuring the hrvp, the top diplomat of the eu, to follow up and to propose some next steps when foreign ministers meet in July. Now, whether the EU will follow through on that, given where Germany is, given where some more Israel friendly countries are, I would be surprised by that. But it was definitely, as usual, a contentious subject of conversation here.

[Sarah Wheaton]

We may well end up with this remarkable situation where there was a definitive finding that Israel is breaking humanitarian law and a definitive lack of action from Brussels. Last point that we're watching is trade. Countries are discussing, discussing how far they want to see the commission go in potentially retaliating against U.S. tariffs. What's the latest on that?

[Nick Winnicker]

So that was going to be the big set piece event tonight. Ursula von der Leyen was going to present the sort of latest state of play of the trade talks with the US and go around the table and canvass all the leaders about their red lines and how they feel about a deal. And you had largely two camps. Some countries saying we need a quick deal with the United States even, even if it's not perfect, another saying, no, we should hold out. And then plot twists like everything involving Donald Trump, a counter proposal has landed in the middle of the European Council with the United States putting a bunch of demands on the table, obviously running up and sort of making big demands that the leaders will have to respond to. So that is definitely a live discussion. And just for a reminder, the deadline is July 9th. And kind of what we're hearing is, well, we may get some sort of framework, broad agreement without all the details sorted out before that date.

[Clea Calcutt]

Yeah. And so what we also know is that during the talks tonight, Emmanuel Macron got a call from US President Donald Trump. And so we can expect that he did mention trade because that's the major issue. And France is on the side of those countries who are more hardline. And really, you know, they don't want a quick and dirty deal. They want, you know, zero tariffs. And so we can expect them to have discussed that as well as the Middle East. And it's quite interesting because it probably warmed Macron's heart up to get a call from Donald Trump because they haven't been speaking or at least advisers have been dodging questions about talks between Macron and Trump since they had a clash during the G7 summit. And Donald Trump said, said Macron was an attention seeking leader who doesn't understand anything.

[Sarah Wheaton]

What a great moment to get attention from your fellow leaders by being like, oh, I won't do my Macron impression, but like. Excuse me, but I have to go take a call from Donald. I'll be right back. Clea, Nick, thank you so much for taking time out from reporting to join us today.

[Clea Calcutt]

Thank you.

[Nick Winnicker]

Thanks for having us, Sarah.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Okay, the EU summit rolls on and I need a coffee. Or actually the press bar has stuff that's usually a little stronger. We'll be back after a quick break. Stay with us.

[Nick Winnicker]

Men need a store that has the right thing for their thing. Like a Kenneth Cole suit made with.

[Carl Matheson]

Choflex fabric to keep them cool at their cousin in law's third wedding in the middle of July.

[Nick Winnicker]

Whatever the thing, Men's Wearhouse has the clothes for it. Love the way you look Men's warehouse well I was down on my last dollar Then I started saving cause the bank said fiscal restraint is what you're craving so I put my earnings in a high yield account Let the savings compound and the interest mount I'm optimizing.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Cash flow putting debt in check now.

[Nick Winnicker]

Time is my friend and not a pain in the neck and we've got a little cash to rebuild the old debt. Boring money moves make kind of lame songs but they sound pretty sweet to your wallet.

[Sarah Wheaton]

BNC bank brilliantly boring since 1865. Now let's dig into the story that has Brussels insiders texting in disbelief. Last week the Commission abruptly threatened to pull a piece of green deal legislation. It was meant to make companies actually prove climate friendly claims they make about their products. The file was at the very end stages of the EU's arduous legislative process. The Commission, Parliament and Council were this close to a deal and then poof. Gone. The official reason? Too much red tape for small businesses. But no one's really buying that explanation. Instead, Fondr Lyon is batting down accusations that she bowed to heavy pressure from her own European People's Party as well as the far right. That move enraged her centrist allies from RENEW and from the Socialists and Democrats. Those are the same groups that helped re elect her and have backed her Commission. Now they're threatening to gum up all her big ambitions. I recorded a conversation earlier this week with my colleagues, sustainability reporter Marianne Gros, senior climate correspondent Carl Matheson, and politics reporter Max Guerrero. Marion, you and Max have been tracking all week this story that has really shaken Brussels. Basically, this legislation, called the Green Claims Directive, is pretty much heading towards being finalized and suddenly the Commission said that they were going to pull it. What was this bill about? And why did it suddenly look like it was about to disappear?

[Marianne Gros]

The Green Claims Directive is a legislative proposal that is meant to tell companies what information they should give when they're making a green or environmental claim. So for example, if they say that this computer is made of 100% recycled metal, they need to provide some sort of proof that needs to be verified to back up that claim. Now, the EU also has a separate law that already targets greenwashing by saying that the same company can't say things like this is a planet friendly computer. So it was really meant to bring in additional context and information and guidance to companies. And you're right, it was basically the end of the process. We were about to reach a deal. And on Friday, the European Commission said it intends to pull the file because of issues with how the negotiations were going.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Okay, so the Commission says, yeah, these negotiations are just such a disaster, not even worth doing it.

[Marianne Gros]

Well, not even. The surprising thing was that on Friday at noon, the Commission said it intends to pull the file because of the current context. End of sentence. And I think that was really what triggered some of the chaos that we saw over the weekend and throughout the week because there's a lack of information when the Commission announced, followed up hours later with a statement that explains why they argued that it was too complex and it included too many small businesses. It goes against the simplification agenda, which is now the priority for the commission. So it gave a bit of explanation as to why again, it intends to pull the file. And then on, on Monday, the Commission sort of went back on its own words, saying that they are in favor of continuing negotiations. But if at the end of negotiations they don't get what they want, then they will pull the file. And at that point it was too late because over the weekend, Italy decided to pull out of the Council's mandate. So the European countries government's position on the file, Italy said it no longer backed it, Council lost the majority and so the negotiations couldn't go on.

[Sarah Wheaton]

All right, so Commission is like, we're responding to everybody else complaining about it. And Max, the Commission had gotten some complaints from MEPs about this, right?

[Max Guerrero]

Yes. Also from the Parliament, we saw heavy push from the European People's Party, the ecr, the patches, who sent a letter to von der Leyen asking her to withdraw this directive because they said it would basically really hamper development of the industry in Europe.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Okay, so we can sort of see A narrative forming here that there's at some stage an agreement on this greenwashing thing. But then people start second guessing it, especially on the center right and the far right. Italy is led by hard right leader George Maloney. We have these right wing members of Parliament complaining. Then we see the Commission be like, oh, we're not so comfortable with this anymore. And we hear that it's going to be dropped. But this isn't all these people that we're describing. These are quite specifically not the people who helped Ursula von der Leyen get her next term as the President of the European Commission. She famously built this coalition of, yes, the center right, European People's Party, but also the Socialists, the Liberal Renew group, the Greens. So how did they react to this, Max?

[Max Guerrero]

So of course, in Parliament, the news from the Commission came as a bomb, really. Everyone was shocked by it, especially Socialists and Liberals. They were basically accusing the Commission of bypassing the Parliament and the Council and hence bypassing the EU's democratic process to side with the far right. Because they were making this connection of, okay, since the right wing epp, CR and Patroc asked them to withdraw. Then von der Leyen followed through with what this right wing bloc was asking instead of looking at what also her coalition partner Socialists and Liberals wanted. So neglecting them in a way. Of course, this came on Friday for the Green Claims Directive. But this sort of bomb, it was a ticking bomb. You know, it could have come at any time. There's resentment being built since last year's election when EPP and the Parliament have been constantly passing through certain measures with the far right. The Socialists and Liberals have been feeling more and more isolated. So this Green Claims Directive was the first sign that perhaps the Commission, von der Leyen was also starting to side with the far right and that's why it created this big shebang.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Carl, coming to you. One of the kind of questions that we have been discussing consistently on this podcast is whether after these elections, where we saw sort of potentially kind of a Green backlash, if we would see actually an erasure of the Commission's Green deal, or if it would still be implemented and they would just kind of talk about it less. What's your take and how does this instance kind of feed your thinking about it?

[Carl Matheson]

I think that the key thing that we have to remember about where we are now, less than a week after this nuclear bomb that Max was talking about, is that we have to ask, what is von der Leyen intention around this file, but also the broader Green Deal file? And it Seems to be. The Commission has told us that von der Leyen actually never wanted this file to be withdrawn. She wanted it changed so that it didn't affect smaller businesses. We don't know exactly why this communication happened on Friday by the Commission. Did they misspeak? Was there another intention behind it? The guys have been reporting that out. But the core fact about von der Leyen that is worth clinging on to in this moment is that she stood up in 2019 in one of her first speeches as Commission president and said the European Green deal is Europe's new growth model. And the first mandate of her presidency was absolutely tied to this idea and her legacy. I mean, this really is one of her core legislative achievements as a politician, not just as European Commissioner, but all the way through. It's a really Europe changing project. And all the reporting that I've done over years is that she's intensely proud of this, that she believes it's the right thing to do and that it's generally economically beneficial to Europe. Then you have the European elections last year. The political context for this issue changes. The European companies are freaking out because energy prices have gone through the roof. They're suffering. European people are worried about Ukraine, they're worried about other things in climate change and nature. So, so suddenly there's this hubbub coalition building that's on the right around business interests, the EPP in the far right that sort of have similar but not the same views on this. And she's getting a lot of pressure. And so she started to refine, tweak, dampen down certain files, especially nature files and sustainability files. But she really is trying to cling onto the core of the grand deal. And I think that is essentially where we are at right now.

[Sarah Wheaton]

So, yeah, we're seeing these green files under threat. And so now Max, the centrist and left leaning MEPs that you've been talking to, they're now saying that they're looking for the leverage that they have. What are they saying they're going to do in response?

[Max Guerrero]

They're scrambling to find their leverage, as you're saying. I think they're going through this process of a bit of soul searching to see really what's their power now vis a vis the European People's Party and von der Leyen.

[Sarah Wheaton]

That was a bit the question once they put von der Leyen in office again. How could they hold her to their agreements?

[Max Guerrero]

Exactly. So that's why they reacted so strongly against it, because they wanted to remind her, look, you depend on us to pass Legislation. And that's why in a way they threatened her by saying, we can withdraw our support, you know, we can block your agenda. If you don't play ball with us and you start, you know, siding with the far right, they can make the legislative process lower, they can kill files in Parliament, especially because we have big files coming, these omnibus one, which is a big simplification package. But then we also have the deportations, regulation, we also have the EU's long term budget, seven year long budget. So all the big files are coming now to Parliament over summer and especially in September, that we'll start having these important discussions. So that's why perhaps also the Socialists and Liberals have used this time to send an ultimatum to von der Leyen. Perhaps not an ultimatum, but a reminder of who she needs in Parliament.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Marianne, I want to go back to a point that was made earlier that the commission is saying, oh, you know, we never meant that we were going to kill this bill. It was all just a miscommunication. When I hear that, I hear very much like shoot the messenger, basically blaming their spokespeople instead of taking responsibility for a political decision. What do you think is going on here?

[Marianne Gros]

I suppose for the Commission it was dangerous to see all of its critics starting to tie this link between what the Commission had said and what the EPP and far right were asking for for. And so the executive started by trying to make it as clear as possible that their reasoning for pulling the file was a different one to what the far right and center right were asking for. So that was perhaps its first tactic to put some distance between the politics of it all. And whilst I don't think anyone from high up explicitly blamed the spokesperson service, what the Commission repeatedly told us through various channels is that they did not intend to pull the file. They were still interested in negotiating with their co legislators and that's clearly different to what was announced on Friday. And so to have this sort of 180 just two days after you make this really bold announcement makes it clear as day that from a communications perspective.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Something went wrong, or from a politics perspective. And indeed, you know, our sort of fascination with the politics also extends to the dynamics inside of the commission. Carl, you cover Teresa Ribera, basically the number two in the commission, the most powerful socialist in the commission and a true veteran of climate policy. She really showed that there is definitely not unity within the Commission about potentially scrapping this bill. You've been observing sort of an escalation of this tension over the past months.

[Carl Matheson]

Teresa Ribeira is in an interesting position because obviously, not only is she a green advocate, she's also one of the few socialists in the commission, and she's been given a lot of authority. She's an executive vice president. Her mission from von der Leyen is to deliver the European Green deal as it was proposed in the first mandate. Now, the way that that is working out is that Ribera is using her authority where she can. But the commission is a political body, too, and there are a lot of people from the centre right, the epp, who are both inside and outside the commission, working to make changes that suit their political ends. And Ribera is fighting a lot of fires, coming in at specific times and putting her foot down on certain files, letting some things through. But for sure, her role within this is a kind of as a guard dog, I would say.

[Marianne Gros]

Just to add a point, now the commission is saying it's up to the council, and it has very much detonated this bomb and then thrown it in the camp of the council of EU countries and their governments to say, looks like it's not clear what you think of the file anymore. It's up to you. Sort yourself out and get back to us. We're open to negotiating. That really just adds to the heightened political crisis. And I think that EU countries are very upset about that.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Okay, so the countries are mad at the commission for kind of dumping this on them. MEPs are mad because they. At least MEPs on the center and the right are mad because they feel left out. There are questions about whether von der Leyen is even in charge of her own messaging. I mean, Carl, like, who is in charge here?

[Carl Matheson]

Ursula von der Leyen. We know this from five years of reporting on her and her style and the way that she has run her commission, that she centralizes power, that decisions tend to flow through her. And while this commission has, you know, variegated powers and, you know, she has pressures on her and she's trying to respond to them. This is Ursula von der Leyen's commission and the political direction it takes, the communication strategy that it takes, the buck really has to stop with her. And that's why all of the heat and all of the blowback went straight in one direction.

[Max Guerrero]

You know, I'm not sure if I fully agree with you, Karl, that now Wonderland is fully in charge, because I think the EPP is the one holding the power, not von der Leyen that much anymore. I think now Manfred Weber, who's the president of epp, has more power over her than he used to have. I think von der Leyen was able to be more independent last term because there was a better balance between socialist liberals and epp. But now, since EPP is able to basically dominate policymaking both in the council and the Parliament, because they have the majority in both houses, let's say that Bond der Leyen sort of needs to follow what she's told from the party headquarters, from Manfred Weber.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Okay. Well, is it Queen Ursula or is she accountable to her EPP court? We'll be watching. Marianne, Max, Carl, thank you so much for joining me.

[Max Guerrero]

Thank you.

[Marianne Gros]

Thank you.

[Carl Matheson]

Thank you very much.

[Sarah Wheaton]

And now we're back on the summit floor. The leaders have just wrapped their final pressers to conclude we had a productive.

[Clea Calcutt]

Summit at a decisive time and the path onwards is clear. Thank you very much.

[Sarah Wheaton]

If they're calling it a day, we are, too. But do check Politico EU for the latest on the summit and the fallout. Now, maybe if our title about daddies and queens made you think that we were going to talk about pride, rest assured that we do have reporters heading to Budapest and we will circle back to hear about the controversial celebration next week. And don't forget to subscribe to EU Confidential on your favorite podcast app. Leave us a rating, write a review, or send us an email at podcastolitico eu. And we're still collecting summer reading tips for an episode next month, so send us a message or a voice memo with your book recommendation. Fiction, nonfiction, politics, beach reads, we want them all. Big thanks to Deanna Staras, our senior audio producer, and to Ann McElvoy, POLITICO's head of audio. I'm Sarah Wheaton. Thanks for listening and see you next week.