A (1:32)

Yeah, Ian, look, it is starting to look very, very serious. So we had this energy ministers meeting. It was an emergency meeting that was called at the EU level. And what we heard after that is basically this acknowledgment that this is not going to be over quickly, that this is probably going to be a prolonged crisis. And where we beginning of this crisis was talk about the fact that this was a price crisis. So prices were going sky high and there were fears about households being able to afford energy. Now, where we're at is we are staring down the barrel of a supply problem, which is a much bigger problem. Where the difficulty is there may not be fuel, oil, gas, et cetera, for EU countries to buy on the market.

B (2:11)

We were discussing this in the newsroom yesterday evening, and the conclusion we came to is this is all beginning to look a little bit reminiscent of COVID Covid, that's right.

A (2:22)

It's pandemic era style planning. And, you know, that is basically a reflection of the fact that the EU sees the sort of problem this could be, and we saw a pretty significant problem in 2223 where we had energy supply issues and energy price issues as well, that was hugely consequential at the household level, but it was also consequential at the political level because voters do not like it when they can't afford to heat their houses. That usually tends to lead to a big backlash in elections. And so the EU is looking for inspiration to that Covid crisis to see about what they can do to resolve this situation.

B (2:57)

But the same sort of questions arise. Do you look to the Commission to do crisis management? How much can the member states join up and get it through the EU rather than do their own thing? What happens if one country stockpiles and another country doesn't? It's those sorts of things that look like what we were talking about at the start of the pandemic. And it is very similar now.

A (3:17)

Yeah. And this is. If we think about what happened with the vaccines, it's a little reminiscent of that because what was happening during the pand was at the beginning of the vaccines being available. Countries are signing for themselves. Yeah, for themselves. And they were buying up contracts of vaccine delivery doses. And what that ended up doing is EU countries are competing against EU countries. They were driving up the price and they were also kind of creating supply problems because they were each trying to outbid one another. The EU then stepped in, the commission stepped in and was like, okay, we're going to do this on an EU level and we're going to allocate those vaccines to countries and do it in a coordinated fashion. And the fear now is that if there is some sort of energy supply problem and EU countries need to buy oil or gas on the market, if they're bidding against each other, firstly, they don't have the purchasing power of the great swathe of the eu, and secondly, they're going to be competing against each other on price. So the idea is maybe the commission might get involved at that joint level at coordinating. Now, we're not there yet, Ian, to be clear, at the moment, supply for the EU is secure, but it's something that is being talked about and it's

B (4:23)

obviously the dominating subject at the moment, because was it yesterday morning that ambassadors met on this subject before the energy ministers met and then we're getting wind of. This isn't unexpected because this always happens when there's a crisis. But there's rumors that there might be a summit in the. In the offing.

A (4:40)

Yeah. That's right. So an emergency EU leaders meeting may be called.

B (4:44)

The next scheduled one is towards the end of April in Cyprus.

A (4:47)

Yeah, that's an informal one. And that. Yeah, that one's a good month away, almost.

B (4:51)

This shows that. How. How much of an emergency is that they might have to meet before then.

A (4:55)

Yeah. That being said, the kind of flip side of it is basically for EU countries to do what they can to reduce demand for energy. So tell their people to drive less, tell people not to go on holidays if they don't need to, which is, of course, a difficult message to give just before Easter. But the hope is that basically, if demand comes down and the war ends, then the EU will not have to do some of the really extreme stuff, which is, you know, forcing people to drive less or lowering speed limits, which are some of the things that we did during the 1970s.

B (5:26)

So let's turn to Hungary again, Zoya, shall we?

A (5:28)

I'm hungry for. Hungry.

B (5:30)

It's just under two weeks before the election campaign entering its final days. Polls show Magyar far ahead of Orban.

A (5:38)

Yeah, this is Orban's rival, Viktor Orban's rival, Peter Magyar.

B (5:42)

He's been ahead in the polls for ages.

A (5:43)

He has been. And his lead keeps expanding. Now it's up to 15 points.

B (5:48)

15 points?

A (5:48)

Is it now up to. Yeah, I mean, that's in some polls, but the big.

B (5:52)

But in all this, according to a story we've got out this morning, and it's really fascinating, is a lot of experts think that Orban still might do it.

A (5:58)

Yeah, not just experts, but, you know, I was talking with a bunch of people after the previous European Council summit. This.

B (6:03)

Not experts.

A (6:04)

Well, I mean, experts in a way. They're people who know Orban and No Magia. And the overwhelming sense that I got was that no one expects Orban to be leaving that European Council table. They all kind of.

B (6:15)

Which is crazy when he's 15, 16 points ahead in the opinion polls just two weeks out.

A (6:19)

This is exactly what this story is about. Basically, the story runs through the ways in which Oban and his Fidesh party have essentially crafted the Hungarian political system to create an advantage for the incumbents, things like gerrymandering, changing districts and so forth.

B (6:37)

Because they do look back to 2022, the last election, and there was something quite similar going on as well. There was. The opposition were united, they were polling quite strongly, and still Orban won by a lot.

A (6:46)

Yeah. And so I think no one is ready to count Orban out just yet. And obvious, obviously, this campaign has been an extremely tough one. There's been a lot of rhetoric, a lot of accusations on both sides. There have been all sorts of irregularities, shall we say. So there's been a lot of controversy around how this campaign is being.

B (7:05)

Yeah. So a few of the things that we're mentioning is sort of the capture of the media. A lot of the media is obviously nearly all of it is pro government, as you said. There's gerrymandering, there's a lot of constituencies that have uneven sizes that favor Orban's party, Fidesh. He legalized voter re registration across districts so voters could go into the ones where they could be used the best.

A (7:27)

It's like election tourism is what is what it's being called.

B (7:31)

So all these things add up to it not being a one horse race at all at this stage.

A (7:35)

Yeah, absolutely. I don't think any serious selection watcher in Hungary is going to be predicting that Magyar is definitely going to win. But that being said, there have been a few moments in the campaign of late that have really hurt Orban. I mean, the most significant one probably from our perspective is this admission by the Hungarian Foreign minister by Seattle saying that, yeah, he had contact with Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign minister, and that he called when he was wanting to talk about EU sanctions, discussions with Hungary pushing to ease those sanctions and opposing measures on the Russian shadow fleet that has hurt his campaign.

B (8:14)

So I have two other stories on Politico this morning that people might want to read. The EU's main institutions of ban stuff from using artificially generated videos and images in official communications. That's obviously very different from some of the things that the White House has, has been doing.

A (8:29)

They've never met an AI video they didn't like.

B (8:32)

And also something of note, the French Foreign Minister, Jean Noel Barrow has condemned the removal of EU flags from town halls across France. They've been removed a lot by far right mayors. He said it's a betrayal of who we are.

A (8:44)

Well, read all about it on Politico. EU. Last one, Ian. And it's apartment because you know how the back pages are for sports. The back end of this podcast is now for sports too, for food, isn't it? Well, that's true, actually. Makes sense. Pastits still thinking about those politicians. They are getting a bit outpain arms about ticket prices for football matches.

B (9:09)

Yeah, they're not happy about the, the prices for the tickets at the, the World cup coming up in the US this summer.

A (9:15)

Yeah, that's right. So 23 MEPs have asked the European Commission to look into FIFA, essentially using Dynamic pricing, which is this thing where, you know, if something is high demand, it's going to.

B (9:25)

Prices go up.

A (9:25)

Yeah, that's right. So they want the Commission to look into that, arguing that it violates EU competition and consumer protection rules.

B (9:31)

I would imagine there's very little the EU can do, especially this, so. So close to the World Cup. But I suppose it's. It's a way of showing that meps listen to their voters and that's what it. That's what they're there for, I suppose.

A (9:42)

Yeah. And so the complaints are that basically when you try to buy a ticket to the World cup, you don't actually know what the final price is going to be when you enter the queue. And some of these prices are insane. I mean, it's like US$4,000 for a ticket.

B (9:54)

Wow.

A (9:54)

Yeah. I mean, nice work if you can get it.

B (9:56)

I went to the. To the World cup before in 2018 in Russia. Went to the quarterfinal.

A (10:02)

Who did you see?

B (10:02)

England versus Sweden.

A (10:04)

And what did you think?

B (10:05)

Excellent. Yeah, the Russians have been listening into my phone calls ever since.

A (10:10)

Dark but true. Hey, Ian, did you know today is April Fool's Day, which is my literal least favorite news day of the year? I cannot stand all of those stupid jokes.

B (10:24)

We hate jokes, don't we? I hate jokes. Absolutely hate jokes.

A (10:27)

We hate jokes. We hate comedy.

B (10:28)

Yeah.

A (10:29)

Don't come here for your laughs.

B (10:31)

I don't.

A (10:32)

Good. But it's also actually apparently a big baby boom day in the eu. Did you know that?

B (10:37)

No.

A (10:38)

Guess whose birthday.

B (10:39)

Can't guess whose birthday it is.

A (10:41)

Well, I would love for you to try. Well, let me tell you. So firstly, we've got the Commission Executive Vice president, Roxana Menzatu. She's the Romanian commissioner.

B (10:50)

Okay.

A (10:51)

Happy birthday to her. Finnish president Alexander Stub. We had him on EU Confidential last week. He's a Donald Trump specific friend in the eu. And a former Commission official, Henrik Hol from Estonia.

B (11:03)

Oh, yeah.

A (11:04)

Folks, if you've got a birthday you want us to add to our database, maybe give you a little shout out, let us know, send us a note. A voice note is great. Number is in the show notes.

B (11:13)

And I think that's all for today, Zoya. We'll be back tomorrow.

A (11:15)

See you, folks. Hey.

C (11:27)

This is Emily Schulteis. I'm the senior editorial director of Politico's live journalism events. On April 9th and 10th. We're heading to Barcelona for our first ever live event in Spain at the European Pulse Forum. We'll dig into the most pressing issues facing Europe, from defense to energy to affordability to tech and AI. And we'll have some of the biggest political names in Spain joining us on stage, including Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. Register to join us in person or tune into the live stream to watch the discussions on Politico, eu.

A (12:04)

Sometimes you just want a good story. On TikTok, you'll find short dramas emotional, fast and impossible to stop watching. Download TikTok now.