Brussels Playbook Podcast – Sanctions, Tensions — and a Birthday at the FAC

Date: February 23, 2026
Hosts: Zoya Sheftalovich (Chief EU Correspondent, POLITICO)
Guest: Nick Winiko (Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent, POLITICO)

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the tense atmosphere in Brussels as EU foreign ministers convene for a crucial Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) session amid Hungarian threats to derail the 20th Russia sanctions package. The episode examines Hungary’s motives, EU unity, the pipeline crisis, and prospects for last-minute diplomacy. It also covers Iceland’s accelerated EU membership bid in response to global instability, U.S. tariff chaos under a second Trump administration, and closes with a birthday note for Poland’s foreign minister.

Major Topics & Key Insights

1. High-Stakes Foreign Affairs Council: Sanctions Showdown

Segments: 00:23–07:29

• Hungary’s Threat to Block Sanctions and Aid:

  • EU foreign ministers gather to finalize the 20th sanctions package against Russia and a €90bn loan for Ukraine, both threatened by Hungary’s veto.

  • Ursula von der Leyen (European Commission President) and Antonio Costa (Council President) are en route to Kyiv, hoping to deliver these “gifts” to Ukraine (01:37–02:07).

  • Hungary stalls, citing delays in Druzhba pipeline repair (damaged in January due to attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure), accusing Ukraine of "dragging their heels" and jeopardizing oil to both Hungary and Slovakia.

    “The Druzhba pipeline is essentially a key piece of infrastructure that gives both money to Russia and funds the war effectively because it keeps the oil flowing.”
    — Zoya Sheftalovich (02:17)

• Diplomatic Dynamics:

  • Hungary’s maneuvers seen as classic Orban brinkmanship—he “becomes the protagonist,” seeking to extract concessions or political points at home ahead of April elections (03:30–04:48).
  • Orban’s reputation: “one of them described him as a sort of black belt in orchestrating these moments where he becomes the protagonist.” — Nick Winiko (03:30)
  • Expectation that he will likely back down, but not before making waves and possibly securing concessions, such as unfreezing EU funds for Hungary.

• Sanctions Package Details:

  • Key feature: Full ban on maritime services for shipping Russian oil (insurance, shipping management, port/refuelling).

  • Aim: To hit Russia’s “shadow fleet” and cut European support for Russian exports—supported by the US, with Greece and Malta showing some sectoral concerns (05:04–05:35).

    “We’re going to make it impossible for the shadow fleet to get maintained and serviced in EU ports.”
    — Nick Winiko (05:35)

• Possible Outcomes:

  • Last-minute deal might still be brokered at COREPER later in the day (07:05–07:29).
  • Some speculate a phone call from Washington (possibly from Trump administration officials) could tip the balance, echoing past interventions (06:44).

2. Iceland Eyes a Speedy EU Reboot

Segments: 07:29–12:50

• Referendum Accelerates:

  • After the 2024 elections, Iceland’s ruling coalition had promised an EU referendum by 2027, but preparations are now underway for a vote as early as August 2026 (07:59).

• Triggers:

  • Trump’s new 15% tariffs on Iceland (and rhetoric involving Greenland) have catalyzed national security anxiety for this small, army-less nation reliant on NATO (08:32).
  • The EU’s attractiveness increases as a geopolitical lifeboat.

• Historical Context:

  • Iceland applied to join the EU during its 2009 financial crisis but withdrew after its economy rebounded and the Eurozone crisis intensified (09:28–09:38).

    “They looked at what was happening in Europe and looked at what was happening in Iceland and decided they weren’t all that keen to join the bloc anymore.”
    — Zoya Sheftalovich (09:38)

• Brexit Bonus:

  • Previous disputes over mackerel fishing with the UK are now less contentious; “The Brexit dividend for Iceland.” (11:00)

• Path to Membership:

  • Iceland already participates in the European Economic Area and Schengen, fulfilling much EU law already.

  • A senior EU source: “if they were really fast, Iceland could probably close negotiations within a year if they reopened them” (11:45).

    “They've done heaps of the homework.”
    — Zoya Sheftalovich (11:45)

• Challenges:

  • Still requires a successful referendum post-negotiations; the outcome is uncertain (12:27–12:50).

3. U.S. Tariffs and the Risk to Transatlantic Trade Deals

Segments: 12:56–14:25

• U.S. Policy Whiplash:

  • Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s global tariff policy (centrepiece of his economic approach).
  • Trump’s response: Announce a new 15% tariff using different legal grounds, risking fresh legal challenges (13:17).

• EU Reaction:

  • The European Commission demands clarity; French MEP Bernd Langer (head of EP Trade Committee) calls to delay a vote on the EU side of the Turnberry agreement given the unpredictability from Washington (13:48).

    “It just means we don’t know whether the US is going to be able to stick to its end of the deal.”
    — Zoya Sheftalovich (13:48)

4. Birthday at the FAC: Polish Foreign Minister Recognized

Segments: 14:25–14:50

• Personal Touch:

  • Nick Winiko gives a birthday shoutout to Poland’s foreign minister, Radislaw Sikorski, “in the room” for the crucial FAC (14:25).

    “Radek Sikorsky, who is fond of a razor remark of his own. So maybe he’ll serve up a slice of cake and maybe a little more to his old mate Shiato from Hungary.”
    — Zoya Sheftalovich (14:32)

  • The Sikorski–Shiato Twitter sparring is playfully referenced, adding color to the diplomatic drama.

Notable Quotes

• On Orban’s Tactics:

  “One of them described him as a sort of black belt in orchestrating these moments where he becomes the protagonist.”
  — Nick Winiko (03:30)

• On Pipeline Politics:

  “The Drozhba pipeline is essentially a key piece of infrastructure that gives both money to Russia and funds the war effectively because it keeps the oil flowing.”
  — Zoya Sheftalovich (02:17)

• On Iceland’s Past with the EU:

  “They looked at what was happening in Europe and looked at what was happening in Iceland and decided they weren’t all that keen to join the bloc anymore.”
  — Zoya Sheftalovich (09:38)

• On Iceland’s Readiness:

  “They've done heaps of the homework.”
  — Zoya Sheftalovich (11:45)

• On Trade Tensions:

  “It just means we don’t know whether the US is going to be able to stick to its end of the deal.”
  — Zoya Sheftalovich (13:48)

Key Timestamps

• 00:23–03:30: FAC meeting preview; Hungary’s threats; pipeline tensions
• 03:30–04:48: Orban’s strategy explained; motivations and political timing
• 05:04–06:44: 20th sanctions package details and impact on Russia’s oil exports
• 07:29–12:50: Iceland’s EU membership momentum; security issues; Brexit effects
• 12:56–14:25: U.S. trade policy upheaval and EU’s reaction
• 14:25–14:50: Sikorski’s birthday; lighthearted close

Tone and Atmosphere

Conversational, sharp, and reporter-driven. Zoya and Nick bring informed analysis, colorful analogies (“Orban, a black belt in orchestrating these moments”), and direct sourcing from behind-the-scenes diplomats. The episode balances dense political coverage with lighter personal touches, making complex EU dynamics accessible and lively.

Summary usefulness:
This summary captures all major discussions around EU sanctions brinkmanship, Iceland’s accession, U.S.–EU trade turbulence, and the diplomatic mood in Brussels as leaders mark the war’s fourth anniversary. Ideal for those wanting concise yet deeply informed insight into the day’s top EU stories.