Should Europe talk to Putin?

Summary

Brussels Playbook Podcast - Episode Summary

Episode Title: Should Europe talk to Putin?
Date: May 26, 2026
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich (Chief EU Correspondent, POLITICO)
Guest: Nick Winnicker (Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent, POLITICO)

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Overview

This episode dives into three major topics shaping EU politics:

1. Increased Baltic security concerns after recent drone incursions, including innovative defense measures.
2. The heated debate over whether Europe should appoint an envoy to mediate Russia-Ukraine peace talks, featuring a range of high-profile voices.
3. Growing tensions over the proposed €1.8 trillion EU budget (Multiannual Financial Framework, or MFF), with key member states digging in for a fight.

The tone throughout is conversational, witty, and deeply informed by direct reporting from EU capitals—offering both high-level analysis and on-the-ground color.

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1. Baltic Security in the Spotlight

[00:27–05:51]

Key Discussion Points

• Support Visit to Lithuania:
  Ursula von der Leyen (Commission President) and Andreas Kubilius (Defense Commissioner) travel to Lithuania to demonstrate EU solidarity after recent drone violations in Baltic airspace.

• Drones and Bomb Shelters:
  There is a surge in conversations (not just official but also between Baltic and Ukrainian companies) about importing frontline bomb shelter expertise from Ukraine, in light of growing security fears.

  • "Basically, you need to be really, really quick. If there's a spillover effect or if there's a new incursion, you've got to be quick in protecting people because the Baltics are quite small." — Zoya Sheftalovich [03:01]
  • Ukrainian industrial shelter makers are readying 'stopgap' solutions for Baltics, with readiness a core focus for governments.

• Digital Security - Estonia's 'Digital Embassy':
  Estonia's government operates a digital embassy in Luxembourg: a secure digital vault, likened to a "giant USB stick," containing all the critical data for running the nation should a physical invasion or major cyber attack occur.

  • "It's treated like a real diplomatic embassy, so even Luxembourg can't access without permission." — Nick Winnicker [05:33]
  • Other countries, like Monaco and Ukraine, are adopting similar digital security strategies, indicating cross-border learning.

Memorable Moment

• The image of Estonian statehood preserved on a digital "DNA sample" [05:10–05:51], and the anecdote about bomb shelters being factored into Vilnius real estate listings early in the Ukraine war.

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2. Should Europe Send an Envoy to Russia-Ukraine Talks?

[05:51–10:53]

Key Discussion Points

• Pressure for a European Envoy:
  With the US stepping back (Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated a US "pause"), there’s growing chatter about naming a EU special envoy for peace talks.

  • Names floated: Angela Merkel, Mario Draghi, Antonio Costa, Sali Niinistö, Jean-Claude Juncker.
  • "I don't know what he's up to these days... probably playing pinball machines in the basement." — Zoya Sheftalovich, joking about Juncker [07:30]

• Pushback from National Leaders:
  Strong skepticism from key frontline states:

  • Radislav Sikorski (Polish Foreign Minister):
    "It's actually quite tempting to say, well, maybe Europe should negotiate it, but I think we should be careful with this. We don't want to be seen by Ukraine as people who put pressure on them to make compromises" [08:10]
    • Cautions against pressuring Ukraine into compromise.
    • Notes that the only fruitful talks between Ukraine and Russia so far have been on prisoner exchanges.
  • Kasutas Budras (Lithuanian Foreign Minister):
    Warns against letting the process be dictated by Russian interests, and against naming names before clear goals are established.
    • "I feel that we are falling into the trap of Russia... that came from Russia, those first ideas about Gerhard Schroeder." [09:16]
  • Similar sentiment echoed by the Estonian foreign minister: direct talks could be exploited by Russia to delay sanctions.

• Divided Opinions:
  Some experienced diplomats, like Anders Fogh Rasmussen (former NATO chief), have changed their minds and now support the envoy idea.

  • “The room was kind of 50/50, a lot of calls in favor of this in GlobSec.” — Nick Winnicker [10:36]

Notable Quotes

• Radislav Sikorski [08:10]:

  "We don't want to be seen by Ukraine as people who put pressure on them to make compromises."

• Kasutas Budras [09:16]:

  "I feel that we are falling into the trap of Russia, because that came from Russia, those first ideas about Gerhard Schroeder."

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3. The EU’s Long-Term Budget Battle

[10:53–13:02]

Key Discussion Points

• €1.8 Trillion MFF Proposal:
  The European Commission is pitching a seven-year, €1.8 trillion budget for 2028–2034.

• Resistance from “Frugal” States:
  Usual "frugal" suspects (Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Austria, Netherlands) oppose the high figure—but this cycle, Germany and France are also signaling pushback, setting up a much bigger fight.

  • "They're fed up and want a lower overall number." — Nick Winnicker [11:29]

• Current Negotiation Stage:
  Breakfast meeting among "frugal" states ahead of the General Affairs Council. Upcoming steps include circulation of the “nego box” (budget allocations in detail) in early June, followed by a key summit of EU leaders on June 18.

• Host Commentary:
  Zoya jokes about whether breakfast will live up to frugal stereotypes ("dry oats, hardboiled egg with salt and water" [13:14]).

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4. Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Baltic Security:
  "If there's a spillover effect or if there's a new incursion, you've got to be quick in protecting people because the Baltics are quite small."
  — Zoya Sheftalovich [03:01]

• On Digital Embassy:
  "It's treated like a real diplomatic embassy, so even Luxembourg can't access without permission."
  — Nick Winnicker [05:33]

• On Envoy Idea:
  "We should stick to our principles that we will support Ukraine, whatever they decide is good for them."
  — Radislav Sikorski [08:10]

• On EU Budget Crisis:
  "They're fed up and want a lower overall number."
  — Nick Winnicker [11:29]

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5. Lighter Moments

• Office fashion and beating the Brussels heatwave (short shorts and ice cream) [01:16–01:31]
• Running jokes about frugal breakfasts between negotiators [13:02–13:21]
• Podcast rivalry with POLITICO’s Berlin and newly launched Paris Playbook Podcasts [14:04–14:59]
• Listener mails ("a handwritten letter, no less!") [13:21–13:46]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Baltic Security and Defense Upgrades: 00:27–05:51
• Digital Embassy / Cybersecurity in the Baltics: 04:47–05:51
• Should Europe Talk to Putin? (Envoy Debate): 05:51–10:53
• EU Budget (MFF) Standoff: 10:53–13:02
• Community and Podcast Banter: 13:02–End

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Conclusion

This brisk and insightful episode captures Brussels in a moment of both tension and adaptation: the EU is wrestling with how to defend its East, whether (and how) it should attempt to influence peace talks with Russia, and that perennial staple—how to pay for it all. The hosts weave in ground-level reporting, sharp analysis, humor, and the voices of leading European policymakers, providing listeners a rich and nuanced morning briefing.

Transcript

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

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[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Good morning. It's Tuesday, May 26, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is sweaty, literally and figuratively, as EU Chief Ursula von der Leyen and Defense Commissioner Andreas Kubelius touched down in Lithuania to show support for the Baltics following last week's drone scare. And also on the pod, should Europe have an envoy in the Russia, Ukraine peace talks? Some are saying no, some are saying yes. Nick and I break it down. And negotiations on the EU's next long term budget are ramping up. But loads of countries are unhappy with the 1.8 trillion euro price tag. I'm Zoya Shiftilovich and with me today is Nick Winnicker, our chief foreign affairs correspondent. Hey, Nick, how are you dealing with this heat dome?

[Nick Winnicker]

I'm doing pretty well, although I've just. Someone commented on my shorts saying I'm wearing very short shorts.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

So it was me. I was the someone. I did say, sun's out, knees out.

[Nick Winnicker]

I was the second person. Then someone said, whoa, really short shorts. But I'm feeling pretty good about them.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Yeah, you're doing the short shorts. I'm doing the ice cream. In fact, I'm doing ice in everything. Iced tea, ice cream, ice water, all day. All right, let's get to something that's a little less icy, a little more hot. Last week on the pod, we spoke about the fact that drones have been violating Baltic airspace. And we know that Lithuania's president and Prime Minister were rushed to underground bunkers and there were some residents who were urged shelter. Well, today the Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen and the Defense Commissioner, Andreas Kabilius, they're off to Lithuania for a meeting with the Prime Minister and with other Baltic leaders.

[Nick Winnicker]

Yeah, so the aim is to show solidarity with the Baltic states, but also to talk about shared defense capabilities and that use safe loans. But there's more.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Yep, there is, because this was a big topic. You and I were both in Prague last week at the Glob Sec conference, and basically this was the talk of the forum. There were panels and politicians talking about the threat from drones spilling over into EU airspace. And in fact, you and I both spoke with some people who told us separately that there have been some discussions between Baltic companies and Ukrainian firms about bomb shelter purchases and bomb shelter expertise.

[Nick Winnicker]

Yeah. So these are big Ukrainian firms that have been doing this on an industrial scale, if I may. And they said, well, we're having these exploratory talks with our Baltic counterparts about bringing our know how to the Baltic state. So these are companies that make bomb shelters for the front line, kind of set them up quickly and suddenly there's a surge in interest.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Yeah. And I was speaking with Igor Federico. He's the chief of one of Ukraine's leading defense industry groups. And he was telling me that basically, you need to be really, really quick. If there's a spillover effect or if there's a new incursion, you've got to be quick in protecting people because the Baltics are quite small and they've got, you know, it's a pretty easy target, shall we say. Although it's not that easy because the Baltics have been shooting down these drones. In some cases, they've been bolstering their defenses. There's been all sorts of work being done. But the point is that he was saying they also want to make sure that they can protect their people in the event of an incursion that's serious and targeted at the Baltics.

[Nick Winnicker]

Yeah. And the government officials from those countries insist that, you know, their countries are ready and they've been working on readiness. But what these CEOs have told us is that there's specific know how in building shelters on work sites, construction sites, near industrial sites where workers can kind of rush in. Some of them are above ground, in fact, fact. And it's really all about protecting people from the shrapnel from drones or missile strikes where sometimes you don't have the time to go into an underground shelter. They're just kind of more stopgap solutions.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Yeah. So we have had this kind of interest happening for a while now. I know that we even in just the early stages of the war, I know one of our colleagues, Itoh, he was doing some reporting and found that some listings in Vilnius that had basements or fortified underground spaces were being marketed as potential shelters. So I think this isn't a new threat, but certainly I think this latest incursion series has increased the kind of urgency there. But that's not the only kind of preparation that we're seeing either. Our colleague Eleanor Regan, she has reported on Estonia's digital embassy.

[Nick Winnicker]

Yeah, so this is an interesting idea. The digital embassy is basically a hidden digital vault in Luxembourg, where Estonia has put a lot of its security databases, population registers, land ownership records, the sort of thing that you need to. To keep a state going effectively in the event of a major cyber attack or something worse.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Yeah, exactly. And she was saying in her story that's out this morning, that it's essentially like a giant USB stick loaded with the blueprint and vital data to rebuild an entire state. So. So super interesting. And the various measures to protect it are quite interesting as well. So it's treated like a real diplomatic embassy. So even Luxembourg, which is hosting it, their officials can't enter without permission.

[Nick Winnicker]

Exactly. The system is built on the data, so it can't be remotely deleted. And even if Estonia was invaded, the invaders could not get rid of the data. So it's like a sort of DNA sample of the country outside. We're really working on the metaphors in another way.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Well, other countries have apparently also been following suit. So Monaco has a digital embassy agreement with Luxembourg, which was formed in 2021, and Ukraine has actually been studying the Estonian example and making moves in that direction as well. So it's super interesting. You know, Europe and. And Ukraine are learning from each other. The Baltics are learning from Ukraine's shelters. Ukraine is learning from Estonia's digital embassy. So it's all what comes around, goes around. Nick, that leads us to our second story now. You and I, again, when we were in Prague, started picking up some interesting developments in this conversation around whether Europe needs to have an envoy to sit at the table when peace talks are happening between Russia and Ukraine.

[Nick Winnicker]

Yeah, exactly. So this is one where it was really on a lot of panels ever since. The US has stepped back from these talks, and we saw Secretary of State Marco Rubio kind of suggest that the US was putting its participation on pause. There've been more and more calls for Europeans to name a special envoy for these talks, and we've had a flurry of names. We had a first batch we reported on a couple weeks ago. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, former ECB President Mario Draghi. But now even some more names are coming to the front.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Oh, yeah?

[Kasutas Budras]

Who.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Who did you hear mentioned?

[Nick Winnicker]

So one that's come up a lot is Antonio Costa, the president of the European Council.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

That's interesting.

[Nick Winnicker]

A neutral player. But I've also heard Sali Ninisto, the former Finnish president, who did kind of play that role with Russia when he was in power. And somebody even mentioned to me, Jean Claude Juncker, the former president of the European Commission, I don't know what he's up to these days.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Well, I think he's still in the Berlamot. I think he still has an office there, probably playing pinball machines in the basement and rattling around upstairs. Well, Nick, that's interesting, because there was also a pushback to this idea, because I actually put that question and you put that question to a bunch of the people who we interviewed. And for me, I asked Radislav Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister, what he about this idea of an envoy. And he was really thinking that this still was not a good idea. He said, look, yes, there is this conversation around this happening, but it's actually better to let Ukraine and Russia have those peace talks directly. We don't really need an envoy. This is a question for the two of them. Let's have a listen to what he said.

[Radislav Sikorski]

It's actually quite tempting to say, well, maybe Europe should negotiate it, but I think we should be careful with this. We don't want to be seen by Ukraine as people who put pressure on them to make compromises. We should stick to our principles that we will support Ukraine, whatever they decide is good for them. And remember, Ukraine and Russia have been negotiating through back channels all along. They had these various paths. The only one that's been workable and has brought results so far over the four years is the one devoted to mutual exchanges of prisoners. But initially, they had these other paths of negotiations. So if Putin is serious, he can reopen them.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Yeah, super interesting, Nick. Basically, he's saying, look, just let the two of them talk it out. But you also spoke with the Lithuanian foreign minister.

[Nick Winnicker]

Yeah, really interesting. And we're hearing kind of a similar thing from Kasutas Budras, Lithuania's foreign minister, also at Glacek. Let's hear what he had to say.

[Kasutas Budras]

What would be our. What will be our package? What will be our demands? What it will be all about? So can we agree on this, on this list of demands? And can we then be transparent enough among the member states to agree that this is the way forward? How we will define the end state? What will be our indicators of success, that we are successful, then we can proceed forward. But when we don't have this essential part, fundamental part, and we are discussing the names, I feel that we are falling into the trap of Russia, because that came from Russia, those first ideas about Gerhard Schroeder. That's the potential candidate for this negotiation. That didn't come out from any of the capital of Europe. That came from. From Moscow.

[Nick Winnicker]

Yeah. So it's also an argument we heard from the Estonian foreign Minister who said, well, you know, Putin could use these direct talks to sort of delay further sanctions and so on. You could say, well, you could argue it the other way and say you could use the talks to make threats of further sanctions. But in any case, it's going to be on the table. The question of direct talks with Russia at informal talks with EU foreign ministers later this week, presided over by Kayakala. So we will see if, you know, Europe can rally behind one idea or not. I got to say the room was kind of 50, 50, a lot of calls in favor of this in Globsack, including.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

So you did an interview with Anders Vogue Rasmussen who said he'd gone the other way. He had thought previously that he, that we shouldn't have an envoy and now he thought maybe we should have one. So it was really a 50, 50 situation.

[Nick Winnicker]

Yeah. And Anders Fogg Rasmussen, not exactly a dove on Russia, so former NATO chief

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

and quite active on this one, of course. All right, Nick, let's go from that to the MFF. In MFF, it's the next long term budget. It runs from 2028 to 2034 and the commission has put up a proposal wanting 1.8 trillion. Trillion with a T for that seven year period.

[Nick Winnicker]

Trillion. Yeah, but there's a spanner in the works.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Yeah, go on.

[Nick Winnicker]

Because the EU's wealthy countries or its net contributor countries, that's where the ones

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

that pay more into the EU budget than take out of the EU budget,

[Nick Winnicker]

they're fed up and they want a lower overall number. And the countries are Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Austria, Netherlands. Those are some of the usual suspects.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Yeah, so far, so boring.

[Nick Winnicker]

Right? Frugal countries. But also this time our reporting shows that Germany and France, the EU's two biggest countries, are also going to be in the room, which really gives them a lot more heft and sets this up as a big fight, actually.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Yeah. And when you say in the room, this is in the breakfast room this morning because these countries are catching up over breakfast ahead of this General Affairs Council. That'll happen later today, which is where various EU affairs ministers meet and discuss various things. One of those things is the budget. They're having breakfast and they're going to

[Nick Winnicker]

be talking frugalism, plotting, plotting and aligning their strategy on how to tell the Commission that we just simply won't sign on to a budget this big. You gotta, you gotta, gotta make it

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

smaller, dial it down. And this is really significant because basically what's happening right now is all of the countries are coming together and deciding what amount they want to put into this budget proposal ahead of the detailed breakdown of the proposed budgets. That's called the nego box and that's basically concrete numbers, spending allocations that is due to be circulated in early June. And then there's going to be a European Council summit with all EU leaders on June 18, where they're going to discuss it for real, right?

[Nick Winnicker]

Yeah, exactly. So we can expect the deal to go down to the wire when the current MFF expires.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Okay. Well, I'm looking forward to seeing what they had for breakfast. If it's going to be bougie and delicious or frugal, it's gonna be dry oats, hard boiled egg

[Nick Winnicker]

with salt and water.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Right, Nick, before we go and put ourselves in an ice bath for the rest of the morning, I want to tell you I've received a handwritten letter, no less. It was the sweetest thing. Stephen from the UK wrote in after my call out saying that no one writes letters anymore, Nick. And he was saying, why do we ask people to send us WhatsApps? Well, folks, if you want to send me a letter, go ahead.

[Nick Winnicker]

You know the way to Zoya's heart.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Sadly, the WhatsApp link to my mailbox is not in the show notes, but you can certainly leave us a note, tell us what you think about the mff. Do you think Europe should be spending more money? Less money? What do you reckon?

[Nick Winnicker]

More bitcoin?

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

That's not all, Nick. Actually, you know how we have a little informal competition with our Berlin Playbook podcast colleagues who have sadly got still more reviews than we do?

[Nick Winnicker]

It's mostly friendly.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Yeah, it is mostly friendly. Well, now we've got another podcast to be mostly friendly in our rivalry with. It's the Playbook Parry podcast, Nick. Ha ha ha. Oui. Ooh. It's going to be in French. It's going to be hosted by our colleague Anthony Latier.

[Nick Winnicker]

Perfect.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

It's going to be a good listen that's launching on June 1, running Monday through Thursday, just like we are. And you can listen to the trailer online already.

[Nick Winnicker]

You got to tune in for that one because of course it's going to be the must listen ahead of the French election, which is coming up next year. And that's all going to be narrated day by day in the Paris Playbook podcast.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

That's going to be exciting. I wish I spoke French well enough to tune in.

[Nick Winnicker]

Well, I can kind of narrate it for you or translate it for you.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

Can't wait.

[Nick Winnicker]

Real time.

[Zoya Shiftilovich]

I'm looking forward to it. All right, folks, listen. Rate, review, Tell us what you like, tell us what you don't. Share this in your group chats. That's what I'd like to see. See ya, folks.