C (2:26)

Yes.

B (2:27)

Wild.

C (2:27)

And ever since the beginning of the war, it's largely impassable. Ships just can't get through, which has sent insurance prices skyrocketing. Energy markets are in turmoil. Governments are reacting with strategic reserves. Everybody is in reaction mode to this crisis.

B (2:40)

Yeah. And the reason why those ships can't get through is because the Iranians are lobbying whatever they can at anyone who tries. And so we know that that's a huge danger for ships. And there's been talk about, like, how do we secure this shipping, this key shipping straight. The Americans have eased sanctions on Russian oil, which, you know, the idea is, well, maybe if we increase supply, then it'll mean prices come down. That means more money for Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, and has not actually brought prices down.

C (3:11)

Yeah. I mean, the Americans are having a go, but now it's the EU's turn. Do you think that it can substantively do something?

B (3:16)

Well, the real question is, will there be some sort of armada that can guard the ships going through the strait? And Donald Trump over the weekend made a reference to this and was saying that, you know, maybe the Europeans can chip in, which is a bit of a change of tune for the US President from saying, oh, no, no, no, we don't need any help to, like, now saying, oh, maybe we could use some help. We've had some differing reactions over the weekend in response. So Emmanuel Macron, the French president, he sort of sounded a little bit warm to the idea, but Germany is very much a no on that. They don't want to put their people on the line because this is a super dangerous situation, and securing ships in that strait is going to be very, very difficult. Difficult.

C (3:54)

And even Macron, who was the most enthusiastic about this, was still saying that even if there were potential escorts for commercial ships, it would have to be if the conflict de escalated, which at the moment doesn't look that likely.

B (4:04)

What the EU does have is this Operation Aspides. It's like two to three EU warships. They get deployed to a region at any given time. What they've been used for in the past is the Red Sea to help with fighting back the Houthis. It's not really designed for something of this size or of this scale. And mainly it protects commercial shipping. Its mission was recently extended, but it's really not designed for defensive escort and surveillance operations.

C (4:30)

And so in terms of what could happen Today, what do you think could be the deliverables?

B (4:35)

Well, that's a great question. I mean, we know one thing that's coming is sanctions on Iran, more sanctions on Iran. So they will be, the foreign affairs ministers at least will be rubber stamping new sets of measures. This package was already agreed by EU envoys last week. So this is just kind of a final sign off situation. It's targeting 19 Iranian officials and entities and there are going to be asset freezes, travel bans, etc. Is that going to solve the problem, Katie?

C (5:00)

Well, it's better than nothing, right?

B (5:02)

I mean, is it, I don't know, is it going to get oil flowing? I guess that's really the question.

C (5:06)

I think it's going to be a tough nut to crack right now. But there's also. So the ministers are also going to have a special guest. They're having their Indian counterpart in to speak with them, Subramaniam Jaishankar. He's in Brussels. He's going to have an informal lunch with them to talk about the relationship. India is obviously very exposed to oil that's coming from the strait. And we know that Jaishankar has spoken several times with the Iranian foreign minister in the last few days. He's trying to ensure safe passage for Indian ships. So maybe there's going to be some relevant intel or awareness that they can share.

B (5:37)

Well, certainly I think those ministers will be keen to hear what he might have heard from the Iranians in terms of, you know, if there's some diplomatic room to get ships flowing. And actually, Katie, we've spoken with the Indian foreign minister for this morning's Brussels playbook. So if you folks want to hear more from him and his view views on Russia and the war in Ukraine, then you can read all about it in this morning's newsletter. But that's not the only thing that's on the FAC agenda today. Also, they're going to be having this working breakfast where they're going to be exchanging views. And one of the things that they're looking at is the European Security strategy. This was a strategy that was announced by European Commissioner President Ursula von der Leyen back in January and it's meant to define EU threat assessment and security priorities going forward. Something like the US national security strategy that comes out from Washington.

C (6:25)

Yeah, but at the moment I think what we're seeing is a lot of documents and not necessarily as much action. I'm just going to reel off a couple of examples.

B (6:33)

Go on then.

C (6:34)

Economic security doctrine, the European defence industry strategy. The White Paper and roadmap for 2030 readiness. The economic security strategy, not to be confused with the EU security strategy and the Strategic Compass takes a lot of documents.

B (6:48)

We just lost all of our Listeners come back. Listeners come back. I swear it's over now. I think, look, what it all boils down to is the question of who actually controls security policy at that EU level. We know we have a European Commissioner for Defence. We also know that defence is generally an EU country competence, not an EU competence. And there have been these accusations flying around, around, you know, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen really freelancing in areas that aren't for her to freelance in. And of course, von der Leyen herself and those in her cabinet would argue that actually she is the best place person to make these sorts of moves and decisions to when you've got so much happening. She has the most power and the most ability to act. But this is what we're stuck with. Lots and lots of papers, no oil.

C (7:37)

Okay, so our second story today is actually very connected to what we've just been talking about. You've just come back from Norway, you just came back yesterday, and what you reported from that is that Norway is now pitching itself as the energy lifeline for Europe, now that the war in Iran is showing Europe's vulnerability when it comes to energy. So. So first of all, how was Oslo?

B (7:55)

It was a delight. You know, it was super interesting. So I was there for this Offshore Norway conference, which is a conference where all of the oil and gas industry gets together once a year in Norway, and they get together to chat about various issues. They talk about, you know, increasing exploration in various parts, how to do it ecologically. They talk about EU legislation. So Norway famously is not a member of the European Union, though it is a member of the European Economic Area. So they have to absorb a lot of EU laws. So it is a pretty key conference that they have every year, and this one was particularly key. The topic of the day was really the question of how to increase reliability of supply of oil and gas to Europe. And that was really the message that the Prime Minister gave. Norway is a reliable partner. European Union, don't go making us shut down our Arctic drilling because we're really good for you.

C (8:52)

And Norway has become a much more significant partner in terms of energy since Russia invaded Ukraine back in 22. Right. It's replaced Russia as the largest pipeline gas supplier to Europe. It provides around a third of the EU's gas imports and almost all of its gas and oil exports go To Europe? Yeah.

B (9:08)

The Norwegian Energy Minister sat down with me for an interview and he said Almost all, like, 90 to 95% of our gas and oil goes to Europe. That's what we are producing. But the flip side of it is that essentially, at the current rate of extraction, Norway said they cannot actually up their supply to Europe. All they can do is essentially invest in new exploration and that might increase supply, but they're currently at the highest level they possibly can get. So this isn't going to necessarily help with the current crisis. And the argument also was, look, we know fossil fuels are not the fuels of the future. We know that we're phasing those out, we want to phase those out. But in the meantime, those needs exist. And rather than get your oil and gas from dictatorships, maybe you should get it from a friendly, democratic country like Norway. That was really the message as well.

C (10:02)

It's very optimistic that they're already thinking about the next crisis. I mean, what kind of developments are they talking about? Did you get much intel on that while you were up in Norway?

B (10:09)

This is the real key thing here, is that today there's actually a consultation that is closing on Arctic fossil fuel extraction. Basically, there is this move from the EU to place a moratorium on any extraction from the Arctic. Norway's argument is much of its fields are located in what the EU defines as the Arctic, but they don't view it that way. They view it as parts of Norway. And so they would like that moratorium not to actually be implemented. Because their argument is, look, all of this stuff that you are currently consuming, all of the supplies that are coming from the Arctic are going to Europe. And if you ban this, if you ban us from doing this, then you're just going to be shooting yourselves in the foot.

C (10:50)

And also, I guess Norway is far from the only country that's got a strategic interest in the Arctic. Right. The Arctic energy picture is also dominated by Russia. They've got these huge energy development projects. Climate change is changing the shipping routes, it's changing the access to resources. Everybody's got eyes on the Arctic as a contested strategic place right now, especially for energy. Yeah.

B (11:10)

And that's Norway's argument as well. Their argument is, look, Russia's not going to stop drilling. So if you make us stop drilling, it means that we may need to move our populations that currently work and live in those areas out, and then that leaves it ripe for Russian taking. So there was also actually, while I was in Oslo, this meeting of all of the Nordic prime ministers as well, as the Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, they were all in town. They've kind of got this, like, club of small powers that are banding together to try to answer this moment we find ourselves in, where there are these giant powers, like the US and China, swinging their unmentionables around on the global stage. And they were really making this point of like, listen, we are democracies. We're the good guys. Let's band together, let's look at our Arctic strategy, let's figure out how we're going to defend this area, and also let's be stronger as a group.

C (11:59)

And Mark Carney's almost become a kind of standard bearer for this. Right. I was in Davos where he made his famous speech about the middle powers needing to work together and pushing back against Donald Trump. So, I mean, like, how influential has Canada been to all of this?

B (12:10)

Huge. And that speech came up again, you know, in this press conference that they had on Sunday morning. They got asked about this speech again. So I think definitely Canada is showing itself to be treading a new path, and people are trying to walk that path with them. For our third story today, it's one close to your heart, Katie. It's about British tuition fees.

C (12:36)

Painful to my heart.

B (12:37)

More like dagger right through it. Well, the EU and the uk, they've been in talks over something of a Brexit reset. And the UK's Brexit minister, Nick Thomas Simmons, he's in town today for some talks. The problem is they want to finish these negotiations by the summer, but there is a dispute over tuition fees that's standing in the way.

C (12:58)

Yeah, absolutely. So if you remember, if you have friends who studied in the UK before Brexit, like I do, everybody used to pay the same, whether they were UK or EU. We all paid about 9,000 a year. After Brexit, that changed, and the fees were massively jacked up. For the EU students, it could be anything up to about 60,000 a year.

B (13:14)

And we're talking pounds, pounds more than

C (13:17)

euros, which was very exclusionary. It meant that UK students and EU students were not on a level footing anymore in terms of who was able to afford to go to university in the uk.

B (13:25)

And the EU officials now are insisting that the UK has to treat students from the EU the same as British students when it comes to tuition fees if they want this Brexit reset to happen.

C (13:36)

Exactly. They're talking about what they call a youth experience scheme. And the Brussels officials are demanding we have reporting to show that the UK side lower the tuition fees that EU students would pay if they're studying at UK universities.

B (13:48)

But in what will come as a shock, I'm sure, to you British universities, they're not super happy about that and they're campaigning for the UK not to give in to those demands.

C (13:57)

It's a big money difference. There was one recently published study by the Russell Group that said the university sector of the UK would be £580 million out of pocket if the lucrative income from foreign fees is cut. So they're clearly going to be very disincentivised to roll out this policy.

B (14:14)

Yeah, that's a fair few pounds, Katie. Well, look, this one is going to run and run, because it doesn't sound like anyone wants to give up.

C (14:21)

I can chew this over at my university reunion in the UK next week.

B (14:24)

Oh, go on, then. What year is it?

C (14:27)

I went before Brexit. Let's just leave it at that.

B (14:33)

All right, Katie, before we go, there's a fun birthday shout out today, which is quite apt. We talked about Norway and Canada today, and you'll never believe it because the Canadian Prime Minister, mark Carney, turned 61 today. And also the former Norwegian Prime Minister, current Norwegian Finance Minister Jens stoltenberg, he's turning 67 today.

C (14:53)

Happy birthday, both.

B (14:55)

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