Ian Wishart (2:32)

So what can the EU do? The Commission is making a presentation today, but it's not necessarily about pumping new money in, is it?

Zoya Sheftilovich (2:39)

No, that's Right. I mean, pumping new money would require new money to be had. And alas, the EU is at the tail end of its seven year long term budget cycle at the moment. So really what they have is existing money and what they have is essentially opening up ways, various partnerships that they can have for businesses in those regions. So the European Commissioner for Cohesion and Reforms, Rafael Fito, he's unveiling this policy today and that involves cheaper loans to businesses in those regions via the European Investment bank, the Nordic Investment bank and various other mechanisms, and also allowing countries to use parts of their cohesion funds as guarantees to help businesses in those areas.

Ian Wishart (3:17)

I suppose it's no surprise that people want to flee those areas which are so close to the Russian border. What I found interesting in what you were reporting is that at first glance this is a story of depopulation and economic decline in the same way as, say, what might happen when a big industry moves away from a certain region. But actually the fears in the EU go much further than that, don't they? They're thinking about the knock on effect from these weaker economies could be leading to places ripe for Russian disinformation and political extremism.

Zoya Sheftilovich (3:48)

That's right, because what happens is when you've got a previously thriving town and all of a sudden the market disappears and trade disappears and it becomes impoverished, young people start moving into the cities, you've got separation of families, you've got businesses that are shutting down, people who used to make a pretty good living no longer can make a good living. And the problem is twofold, Ian, because firstly, if people move out of these areas, you've got to remember that it's important to have people there to defend those areas. I mean, it's, it's essentially the law of possession. If you leave those areas unprotected, if.

Ian Wishart (4:22)

They'Re unpopulated, vulnerable, I suppose, don't they?

Zoya Sheftilovich (4:25)

Exactly. And think back to the.

Ian Wishart (4:27)

I mean, it's easier for Russia to invade an area where there's hardly any people living than there is a big thriving city.

Zoya Sheftilovich (4:33)

Exactly. And what I was going to say is I remember the early days of the full scale invasion when we had that incredible footage of Russian tanks being towed by Ukrainian tractors. It was farmers who were defending the territory and they slowed down those advancing Russian forces so that then when the Ukrainian military got involved and were able to protect Kyiv in the meantime, those forces had been slowed, they'd been bogged down. I mean, it was incredible scene. So I think that's playing on people's.

Ian Wishart (5:01)

Minds you can see why the Commission wants to do this. I mean, this is sort of the. You know, this is really what cohesion policy is. It's pumping money into areas which have seen economic decline. But what doesn't usually happen is, is that decline happens so quick.

Zoya Sheftilovich (5:15)

Exactly. And the worry is, you know, I've been speaking with people who have been involved in making this plan. The worry that the Commission has is that. That if you've got people leaving these areas and it becomes impoverished, like that easternmost border, it does leave those places open to political extremism. It leaves them open to Russian propaganda and it leaves them vulnerable. And so the Commission is very keen to show people exactly the benefits of EU membership. Like, look, we've built this road, we've built this school. You know, these businesses are being supported by EU money. So I know that Commissioner Feto himself, early on in his time in post, he traveled to a lot of these border areas and he spoke about being moved quite significantly by a visit that he made to Finland, where he saw a town that had had 1.8 million Russian visitors per year, essentially emptied out. And he was really struck by the impact that that had on the local population, the depressing effect that that had had. And so, of course, the solution is not to re engage with Russia, which is still waging war on Ukraine, but it is to ensure that those towns have money flowing through them to help ensure that they stay viable.

Ian Wishart (6:27)

Okay, from the eastern front of the eu, let's move slightly further west, back to Berlin, and let's talk about spying, shall we?

Zoya Sheftilovich (6:35)

This is a fascinating story, Ian. Basically, Friedrich Merza's government is moving ahead with a plan to up its game when it comes to spying.

Ian Wishart (6:43)

Well, do you know what spies do in some countries? In a lot of countries, they can sabotage on foreign territory. They can go into apartment blocks, install computer software, they can hack back against hackers. But German spies can't do that.

Zoya Sheftilovich (6:57)

Yeah, Ian, look, it is a huge taboo in Germany.

Ian Wishart (7:01)

Well, it all goes back to after the Second World War, because the Gestapo pretty much operated as if it didn't have any rules. And I think when the Secret Service In Germany, the BND, was set up in the 1950s, they were very careful that those sorts of abuses could never happen again.

Zoya Sheftilovich (7:16)

Yeah. And I think there was also a degree of looking at the Stasi operating in East Berlin, and that was also a big cautionary kind of red light. But the thing is that the world has changed, Ian. And where Germany used to rely very heavily on its allies, particularly the US for intelligence sharing. They feel like they can't do that anymore. Right.

Ian Wishart (7:36)

It's exactly the same as Germany saying they need to boost its armed forces is because they're saying, as you say, the world is changing. We don't know. We can't guarantee who our allies are in the future. And therefore we need to be much more independent. And you know, that post war order where the US Guaranteed the security and safety of Germany pretty much no longer exists.

Zoya Sheftilovich (7:58)

Yeah, that's right. And our colleague Netta Noslinger has written this super interesting piece that's out on the homepage today where she talks about this very effect. And essentially, you know, it's part of this broader story. It's what we're seeing talk about France sharing its nuclear umbrella with Germany as well as the rest of Europe. It's talking about not being able to trust Trump and the kind of intelligence that's coming from there. So I think there is kind of this big, big move. This plan is going through the parliament now, the draft reform, it's like 130 pages long. The idea is to give the foreign Intelligence agency more money. They've already had their budget up significantly, but even more money is on the table. And basically it would give them the freedom to spy abroad. And that's what spies do. If James Bond has taught me anything, it's that the spies for the UK at the very least, are spying abroad. And it's also broader access to digital communications. That's a huge one because we know that the Germans have had a real kind of aversion to any sort of spying on digital comms. But that's on the table here as well. They'll be able to store data for longer and expand their ability to hack into foreign systems. So they're really looking at that kind of active disruption of foreign attacks.

Ian Wishart (9:10)

Okay, thanks, Zoya. Should we have a quick look at what else is going on today?

Zoya Sheftilovich (9:13)

Yeah, why not, Ian? So first up, we've got a super interesting story running on Politico this morning on Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. She's taking a big gamble. She's holding a referendum on judicial reform next month and it's running from the 22nd to the 23rd of March. And it could either cement her grip on power or it could backfire. And secondly, we've got a reporter on the ground at the annual Global Artificial Intelligence Summit in New Delhi this week, and that has grown from 150 to 35,000 delegates in less than three years. It's a huge Summit. And it's really about safeguards to keep AI technology in check. We'll be following that closely on Politico. Eu.

Ian Wishart (9:58)

Ok, shall we talk finally about this polling story?

Zoya Sheftilovich (10:01)

Let's. Although I'm a little bit sad to read the results of it, Ian, if I'm being honest, as a Ukrainian and devoted democracy lover.

Ian Wishart (10:10)

Yeah. It's a poll carried out by a company called About People and it surveyed voters in five countries. Greece, France, Sweden, Britain and Romania. And it shows. Well, you can tell us. It shows that democracy is sort of not as popular as it once was.

Zoya Sheftilovich (10:25)

Yeah, that's right. So roughly one in five respondents have said that in some cases a dictatorship can be preferable to democracy. Around about 20% of them said that. So it's pretty intense and it feels like this is more than just a little bit of fringe frustration. It may be something a bit deeper, Ian.

Ian Wishart (10:41)

Well, I find it fascinating also that this was carried out in countries like Greece and Romania, which has known dictatorships in the not too disempowered pass. And Greece only became a democracy in the 70s, I think in Romania later than that, since the end of the Cold War. So memories are quite short.

Zoya Sheftilovich (10:58)

Yeah. And not to mention that Greece is the birthplace of democracy, as my half Greek husband frequently reminds me. But yeah, look, let's break it down. In Greece, 76% of people are unhappy with how democracy works. In France, it's 67%, Romania, 66%, Britain 41% and Sweden, 32%. It's not marginal, but I think if you break down those places, it does kind of make sense. Right. Because in Greece, people are pretty angry about this devastating train tragedy that occurred and the fallout from that.

Ian Wishart (11:29)

Blame the government for basically all the fallout.

Zoya Sheftilovich (11:31)

Indeed. And the fallout is still going. And we have been covering this closely over the last year or so. When you look at Sweden, while we've seen what the state of democracy there is in terms of the rotating cast of characters at the top and the various hirings and firings. So you can see why there might be dissatisfaction, but there is actually more to it than that. Right, Ian, like our colleague Niktarismouli, she spoke with some experts and they reckon that it's not just about Western and Eastern Europe or North versus South. They reckon that it's being fueled by things like institutional fatigue and anger at the elites.

Ian Wishart (12:07)

Yeah. And that makes you question, is it that people don't want democracy anymore? Are they saying they want a dictator or are they just sick to the back teeth of the way the Political system works.

Zoya Sheftilovich (12:17)

And you know, Ian, this sort of polling is super interesting to me because I think it illuminates things that are happening and gives us a little insight about the impact of Russian disinformation. Because we know that undermining faith and democracy is something that Russia does, it's something that China does. It's part of the plan essentially to cast doubt on the democratic systems where you elect your leaders and to make their own systems where their dictators or single party rules seem more attractive by comparison. All right, Ian, let's talk about something.

Ian Wishart (12:52)

A little lighter, shall we?

Zoya Sheftilovich (12:54)

Well, the coffee saga continues.

Ian Wishart (12:55)

Oh, no.

Zoya Sheftilovich (12:58)

That's right. We asked people for their favorite coffee spots in Brussels and they have delivered. We've got some great advice from our listeners. We heard from Angie, who is flabbergasted by the price of, in her words, not so good coffee in the EU quarter. And she's recommending MIA concept store near Place Jordan. Fun fact, it's got vegan pastries for our veggie eating Franzian. We also heard from Villa again, a friend of the pod, Ian, he's written in before. He reckons that while five euro lattes are outrageous, you can find a pretty good priced coffee at United Tastes on Rue Caroly.

Ian Wishart (13:31)

Oh, where the Czech perm rep is.

Zoya Sheftilovich (13:32)

Exactly. Well, thanks Angie and Villa for sending in your messages. And Ian, we've had a message that's come through from Climate Central. They're an independent group of scientists in Princeton in the US if you.

Ian Wishart (13:44)

Nice.

Zoya Sheftilovich (13:44)

That's how far this POD has traveled. Well, they've said that actually there's a new report that shows coffee prices are rising globally because of extra days of extreme heat and dry weather in coffee producing countries. So that's a bit sad.

Ian Wishart (13:57)

Well, I'll remember that next time I drink my €5 cup of coffee.

Zoya Sheftilovich (14:01)

Talk about latte sipping Ian. All right, folks, keep those coffee tips coming and let us know what you think about the pod. Do you like our headlines? Do you hate Ian? Our WhatsApp number is in the show notes. And that's it for today's Brussels Playbook podcast. Thanks, Ian.

Ian Wishart (14:17)

Thanks, Zoya.

Zoya Sheftilovich (14:18)

I'm Zora Sheftilovich. I'll be back with you tomorrow morning. Who do you think would be a better spy? Me or you?

Ian Wishart (14:27)

Oh, me. I've got a lot more secrets.

Zoya Sheftilovich (14:29)

That's actually really true. But maybe I'd be better because nothing is a secret and everyone thinks I'm an open book.

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