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Today's episode is Presented by Amazon. 60% of sales on Amazon come from independent sellers across Europe. Over 280,000 small and medium enterprises partner with Amazon to grow their business. Learn more at aboutamazon.eu Good morning.
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It's Wednesday, March 4th, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is it's complicated because the Iran conflict seems to have sent a lot of European political parties, especially the far right, it has to be said, into a tailspin. And that's our main story today, how the parties like Marine Le Pen's national rally in France and alternative for Germany, the fd, are struggling to know what to think about the us, Israeli airstrikes and the toppling of Iran's supreme leader. Also on the podcast today, we'll look at the connected issue of how the Iran war might affect energy prices in Europe. We'll talk about the European Commission's long awaited master plan to boost industrial decarbonisation and traditional manufacturing. More exciting than it sounds, believe me. And the EU has messed up its translator exams again and people are angry again. I'm Ian Wishart. I'm sitting in for Zoya today who unfortunately has lost her voice. Get well soon, Zoya. Have to say it's a lot quieter in the office today, unfortunately. With me is our senior finance reporter instead, Katherine Carlson. Again. Hi, Katie.
C
Hi, Ian.
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Are you enjoying the sunny weather?
C
I am. It's, I should say it's unseasonal, but I'm happy that spring is arriving. I was at the St Gilles Market on Monday night. Natural wines?
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A few.
C
A few. Just a restrained amount.
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Okay, let's start with Iran again, obviously, because the war in the Middle east might seem far from Europe. We mentioned yesterday on the podcast that Iranian missiles have targeted areas near British bases in Cyprus and the Cypriot government has already had to cancel another EU meeting of ministers planned for later this week. And Donald Trump last night you probably saw lambasted Spain for its position when Trump was with the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the White House. He said Spain has been terrible. He said we're going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don't want anything to do with Spain, but it's other European countries we wanted to talk about this morning because politically the Iran war is beginning to have an impact domestically. Katie?
C
Yeah, it's a foreign issue which is really proving divisive domestically. I mean, when you think about the, the far right parties that we're often talking about in Europe look at their traditional stances. They're anti Migration. They like policies that play well with people, like lowering the cost of living, particularly energy prices. They often support Israel. They're against U.S. military interventions.
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And being anti intervention is quite a big thing for them. And anti American sometimes.
C
Yeah. And so the nature of this conflict and how it's unfolded has just proved more divisive. And it's led them sort of scrambling for a unified narrative and quite often contradicting each other as they try to evolve their stances to meet, you know, this unprecedented conflict.
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And I think what's interesting about the national Rally, in particular in France, is that they came out quite quickly to condemn the US operation in Venezuela, but this time they've been a lot more quiet about the intervention in Iran. So you see the nuance there. It could be because of their anti Islamist dance, which they've had for a long time, or it could be something else.
C
Yeah, exactly. And you're also seeing a bit of a difference between Marine Le Pen, the party's longtime leader, who she held back from being as critical as she was about Venezuela. She just expressed solidarity with allies that had been hit by the Iranian strikes. And at the same time, Jordan Badella, the party president, he's been cancelling scheduled press conferences. He's been trying to steer the conversation back to domestic issues. He's really trying to sort of de escalate the conversation around it.
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And we'll talk about the AFD in Germany in a minute. But these parties are so close to power. Actually, you see the national rally, they're currently way out in the polls in France. The AfD, obviously the second biggest party in Germany, they feel they're so close to power, they don't want to upset their core, they don't want to upset their base. And this is a real test for them, I suppose.
C
But at the same time, their leaders in waiting. So it means that the rest of us need to pay even closer attention to what their positioning might be. I mean, these might be the people that are deciding on foreign policy.
B
In a few years, the tension within the AFD actually seems even greater. You tell us, Katie, because I know you looked into it.
C
Yes. So Initially, when the US and Israel struck Iran, the AfD's party leadership called for restraint. They said that more instability in the Middle east isn't in Germany's interest. And Alice Weidel, the co chairwoman of the AfD, she was warning about the domestic issue. She was talking about the possibility of a surge in migration if the war breaks out.
B
Further, what Welt reported, our sister newspaper in Germany, though, is that at least one AfD MP they mentioned, Andreas Bleck, he wrote in a group chat on social media that he felt not represented. So I think what's interesting is that it has echoes actually of the divide in the Republican Party in the US because Trump came to power saying he was not going to start any wars and he was anti interventionist. And actually that's now you see being played out within the far right in Europe. But you can read more about that on the Politico website today. Our colleague Marion Saletti has written it and goes deep into that issue. Something else we wanted to say connected to the Iran conflict, Katie, was the effect on energy prices here, because with the straight of Hormuz closed, that's having a knock on effect in Europe, isn't it?
C
Yeah, absolutely. So this is such a key shipping route for international energy suppliers. It normally carries about a fifth of global oil. Since the war kicked off, that shipping has almost ground to a hole. And insurance for ships was also temporarily stopped completely. So the global prices have obviously followed on from that. The gas prices in Europe have nearly doubled. The oil prices have gone up about 10% overall, stocks are down. And I think we need to, we'll all be remembering in Brussels exactly what happened four years ago when the Ukraine invasion first happened. Because I think the memories, exactly the memories of that inflation crisis that was sparked by a war and its impact on energy supplies. It's very fresh in everybody's minds and
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there is a connection there to what we've just been speaking about, right wing parties. They obviously can see the knock on effect and they know that has repercussions at the ballot box.
C
Yeah, definitely. And I think it's, you know, it's easy if you're a European to think that this is quite a remote conflict, but when it starts showing up in your pocket and in your house, it's a very different moment.
B
Okay, let's move on. The European Commission is finally set to adopt something called the Industrial Accelerator act later today. It's actually being quite contentious within the Commission, hasn't it, Katie? As you might have read on the Playbook newsletter yesterday morning, a meeting of Commission cabinet chiefs on Monday night dragged on for about four hours because of disagreements over it. It got quite heated. We were told it's already been repeatedly delayed because of pushback from within the College of Commissioners and also a group of countries, it has to be said, led by Germany, the countries who favour free trade, deregulation, that sort of thing.
C
Yeah, absolutely. So what this plan is is it's overall the Commission's attempt to try and keep more manufacturing and particularly green manufact in Europe instead of continually losing out to China or the us where those manufacturers dominate. So what it actually does is sets targets for the specific proportions of parts that have to be made in Europe in order for those technologies to benefit from government subsidies. So in the longer term, the idea is that it shifts more European public procurement back to the European manufacturers.
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So it's about keeping money in Europe, is it?
C
It very much is about keeping specifically government money in Europe and on the private sector side, keeping manufacturing in Europe rather than losing out to countries like China that currently manufacture more than 90% of the solar panel parts for the world.
B
That doesn't drive down prices. That's the trouble, isn't it? We've always talked about the lowest bidder getting contracts for stuff. That's what free trade is all about and open markets is all about. And this is kind of stopping that.
C
Yeah, exactly. So I think it's very much a political choice on the part of the EU if they want to onshore more manufacturing here, because it's never going to be, if you're having production that's done in the eu, if it's done to European standards, if it's done with European salaries, you're never going to be able to compete with China on price in the eyes of some people. It's just bad economics.
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It's pretty existential. This has been an argument in Europe for decades. Do you close off from the rest of the world and make Europe a bit of a fortress, or do you reach out and say we're trading with the rest of the world and, you know, open markets and that kind of thing?
C
Absolutely. And at the moment, I think that's really the conflict that's playing out in the Commission. Because if you think about it, these two goals of being more insular, focusing more on by Europe for Europe, it's really in contradiction with the Commission's open trade and free markets agenda. And the fact that it wants to go out and do the Mercosur deal and do a trade deal with Australia, with India, they're kind of directly in contradiction. So who's winning in the Commission?
B
I was just looking at some of the numbers, actually. The Commission says that public procurement is worth about 2 trillion euros a year across the EU. That's 14% of GDP. This isn't small amounts of cash.
C
Yeah, there's huge amounts of money that are on the line here and I think that's Also why we've seen these conflicts play out so close to the wire. I mean, the issue with this piece of legislation in particular is that it was originally supposed to be proposed months ago. It's been delayed so many times, and now it seems we're reaching a point where the powers that be in the commission decide, even if it's not quite camera ready, it's time, we're going to push it out because this has to happen. We're drawing a line in the sand. And that's why we've seen so many last minute changes, why we've seen Stephane Sagenay, the industry commissioner, who was so passionate about this and wanted really ambitious proposal. He's pre watered it down before it's become public so that they can get it across the line.
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Pre watered it down. That's a new piece of it. You talk. So finally, let's talk about this news that we're reporting this morning that the EU has, seems to have botched another exam, a translator exam run by the European Personnel Selection Office. That's the exam that allows people to, in this instance, to be translators in the institutions. Can you tell us a bit about what this is about?
C
Yeah. So this isn't the first snafu that's happened with this assessment. So last year there were thousands of applicants who sat an online exam that was part of the assessment to become a translator. There was a setup defect in the test. There was some sort of an issue and then they had to repeat that exam a few months later. And now some of the hopeful translators.
B
The would be translators.
C
Exactly. The would be translators who originally had to reset that exam have been disqualified from the whole competition.
B
And they're saying it's unfair because they were told they've been disqualified because they didn't turn up. They didn't do all the tests and they're saying that they did. So something's gone wrong, obviously.
C
Exactly. Some of them say that they've been receiving letters to say that they failed to sit a test when they haven't. People that our colleagues have spoken to have said there are dozens of people affected, but it could be hundreds.
B
They say utterly ridiculous. One person called it on Facebook. How can they be so careless? If you want to read about this, read about it on the Politico website and you'll see the response from the EU and the explanation they will give. And it's coming at a big time when there's a lot of exams going on, isn't there, Katie?
C
Exactly. So you would Hope that the EU's internal systems for doing these kinds of assessments are working because they're really going to be put to the test. Now. The EU currently has open its big generalist entry exam. It's open for the first time in seven years. There's going to be probably tens of thousands of people going for that. So you really don't want to see system malfunctions there and have these same kinds of controversies.
B
When we reported that a couple of weeks ago, we did a Are you smart enough to work for the EU quiz. Did you take that?
C
I knew you were going to bring this up. I did take it.
B
What was your result?
C
I will not disclose the number, but all I will say is that I was advised to not quit my day job. And I think that's exactly why I'm here, Ian.
B
Well, we hope you don't quit your day job, Katie. Before we go, we have a special birthday shout out to the Greek Prime Minister. Kyriakos Mitsutakis. Hironia Pola. What do you think of that?
C
Excellent. I feel like I've had a balmy Athens taverna.
B
Well, with the weather like this, you know, it has some Greek vibes in Brussels. So should we stop there?
C
I think we should.
B
Thanks for listening. And remember to tell a friend about us, or a colleague or an illicit lover. Tell us if you're enjoying the podcast. Do you have a question? Do you want to send some get well soon messages to Zoya? Maybe a virtual throat lozenge? You can reach out to us on WhatsApp. The number, as ever, is in the show notes and we'll be back at the same time tomorrow.
C
I.
B
Can't believe you didn't reveal your score.
C
I'm not going to shoot myself in the foot like that.
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A message from Amazon. 60% of sales on Amazon come from independent sellers across Europe. Over 280,000 small and medium enterprises partner with Amazon to grow their business. Sellers like Nivoma and Toulouse use Amazon to grow their food supplement brand into a global business. Learn more at aboutAmazon€.
This episode explores the ripple effects of the Iran conflict on European politics, with a special emphasis on how far-right parties are struggling to respond, the conflict’s implications for energy prices, and the unveiling of the European Commission’s long-debated “Industrial Accelerator Act.” The hosts also touch on a recurring mishap in EU translator exams—frustrating many hopeful applicants.
For further detail or additional context, listeners are encouraged to explore the original POLITICO reporting suggested in the episode.