The next refugee crisis

Summary

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Episode Overview

Theme:
The Next Refugee Crisis explores the mounting humanitarian emergency in Sudan, the EU’s evolving migration policies in response, and how these intersect with Brussels’ wider political agenda. The episode features reporting from the heart of Brussels, insight from UN officials, and a sit-down interview with Cyprus Europe Minister Marilena Rauna about her nation’s role during its EU Council presidency.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Brussels Updates & Tidbits

• EU Customs Agency Host City Announced:
  • Lille won the bid to host the new EU Customs Agency, prompting banter over Belgium’s already large concentration of EU institutions.
  • [02:00] Zoya: "I was hoping Liege, the hometown hero would come through, but no, it was Lille because Belgium doesn't have enough EU institutions already."
• EU-US Trade Deal Progress:
  • The trade deal is expected to pass after today’s European Parliament vote, clearing the way for "trilogue" negotiations (Parliament, Commission, Council) to begin mid-April, indicating broad European consensus.
  • [02:25] Sarah: "Three way talks with the EU governments, the European Parliament and the Commission will start as soon as April 13th."

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2. The Sudan Crisis and Europe’s Refugee Fears

Humanitarian Disaster in Sudan

• The civil conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF has raged since 2023. Accusations against both sides include ethnic massacres, sexual violence, and widespread war crimes.
• Over 30 million people require humanitarian assistance; about 9 million are currently displaced (down from a peak of 12 million).
  • [03:24] Zoya: "They're talking about over 30 million people who require humanitarian assistance. At the peak... 12 million people had been displaced."
• Widespread donor fatigue and funding shortfalls, particularly following US cuts, have exacerbated the crisis.

Lessons from Syria

• UN officials warn this is a "Syria 2011 moment"—the opportunity exists to prevent mass displacement to Europe if the crisis is stabilized now.
  • [04:12] Sarah: "They're saying the phase that we're in right now in Sudan is similar to the way Syria looked in 2011, before we saw many people fleeing."
• Urgent calls for attention and money, as lack of media focus leads to less international support.
• Vulnerable groups highlighted:
  • Women face dire circumstances
  • Children risk conscription as child soldiers

Migration Policy in Brussels

• EU Parliament votes on Returns Regulation:
  • Legislation aims to facilitate faster deportation of rejected asylum seekers, potentially opening detention centers outside the EU and expanding bans/detention.
  • [06:37] Sarah: "This legislation is saying, look, it needs to be easier to kick out people who we've already decided are not allowed to be in the European Union."
• Zoya juxtaposes the UN’s “prevent a crisis” call with the EU’s focus on making returns more efficient—two very different conversations happening in parallel.

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3. Cyprus’ EU Council Presidency: In the Eye of Regional Storms

Interview with Minister Marilena Rauna

• Security Tensions: Cyprus uniquely impacted by regional instability, including a drone strike on a British base during the American-Israeli conflict with Iran.
  • [09:14] Rauna: "We had this one single isolated incident... It caused minimal damage, no casualties. What I would like to stress is that we continue delivering on the presidency. No meetings have been cancelled."
• Upcoming EU Council Meeting in Cyprus (April 23-24):
  • Minister Rauna affirms security and preparedness for welcoming 27 EU heads of state.
  • [10:16] Rauna: "Absolutely. There is no security risk that right now we see... full conditions of normality in Cyprus, full conditions of security."
• Surprise at EU’s Crisis Competence:
  • Rauna highlights how the EU can act and deliver when pressured by crises, noting progress especially in security, competitiveness, digital policy, and new trade agreements (India, Mercosur).
  • [11:08] Zoya: "It's this idea that Europe needs to be competitive against the US, against China, against other forces."
  • [12:56] Rauna: "You had mercosur. It was one of the first things we delivered on as presidency. Across the board, I think there is a lot of appetite to deliver despite the challenges."
• Personal Touch:
  • Ministry runs on caffeine; Rauna says she drinks two or three coffees a day—though jokes there are colleagues who might rival her with six.

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4. (Not So) Weird Brussels Acronyms

• Rebranding EU Interest Groups:
  • Many Brussels-based lobby groups are ditching technical acronyms for more relatable names (e.g., ETRMA becomes Tires Europe, Aebiom becomes Bioenergy Europe).
  • [14:24] Zoya: "Etrama or just rolls off the top..." / Sarah: "It's now Tires Europe."
• Favorite and Silliest Acronyms:
  • Euro Patatet wins as “European Potato Trade Association.”
  • Zoya and Sarah revel in the rude soundalikes of GAC (“General Affairs Council”) and FAC (“Foreign Affairs Council”).
  • [14:57] Sarah: "Euro Patatet... it's the European Potato Trade Association."
  • [15:07] Sarah jokes: "FAC you, Zoya." / Zoya: "It's just the facts of life, Sarah. Fact check."*

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “[Sudan] is the worst crisis that we have had in this year. And... people just don't seem to be talking about what's happening in Sudan.”
  — Zoya Sheftalovich, [04:36]

• “They're saying if we act to stabilize the region now, help develop a route to peace, we could potentially avoid the displacement that happened on par with what happened in Syria.”
  — Sarah Wheaton, [04:12]

• “No meetings have been cancelled, and as of April to June, all meetings in Cyprus will take place as planned, including, of course, the informal European Council.”
  — Minister Marilena Rauna, [09:14]

• “Europe needs to be competitive against the US, against China, against other forces.”
  — Zoya Sheftalovich [11:08], paraphrasing wider EU concerns

• “My favorite acronym is GAC. Or maybe it's FAC. ... If you say it fast enough, it sounds like a rude word.”
  — Zoya, [14:50]

• “FAC you, Zoya.”
  — Sarah, [15:07]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Brussels News Roundup & Cheese Banter: 01:17–02:35
• Sudan Crisis – UN Warnings & Policy Implications: 02:41–06:58
• EU Migration Policy/Returns Regulation: 06:58–08:10
• Interview: Cyprus EU Presidency (Marilena Rauna): 08:10–13:55
• EU Lobbying Acronyms – Name Changes & Fun: 14:05–15:11
• Preview & Wrap-Up (Tease for EU Confidential): 15:32–15:53

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Episode Tone and Style

• Conversational, witty, and slightly irreverent.
• Empathetic yet direct when addressing humanitarian issues.
• Light-hearted closer (acronyms, personal caffeine habits).

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Summary Takeaway

This episode deftly traces the links between neglected humanitarian crises and the concrete policy discussions in Brussels, showing how moments of international neglect can quickly become EU inflection points. Zoya and Sarah blend hard-hitting reporting (Sudan, migration votes, Cyprus security) with lighter fare (cheese, acronyms) that reflects the unique culture and quirks of European policymaking—giving listeners both context for the headlines and a sense of the personalities that drive them.

Transcript

[Zoya]

So good, so good, so good.

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[Zoya]

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[Sarah Wheaton]

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[Zoya]

Good morning. It's Thursday, March 26, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in town today is pleading with UN and EU officials meeting to discuss the war in Sudan which could result in a refugee crisis in Europe. And this comes just as the EU Parliament votes to get tougher on migration. Also on the podcast, I spoke with Cyprus Europe Minister Marilena Rauna, and we talk about her plans for the rest of the Cypriot presidency. Plus, is this the end of abbreviations in Brussels? RIP with me today is one of our policy editors, Sarah Wheaton. Hey Sarah, I heard you went to a cheese reception last night.

[Sarah Wheaton]

I'm the agriculture and food editor and that means lobbying happens over a buffet. And the European Dairy association had a cheese buffet with lactose laden delectables from across the continent.

[Zoya]

What's your favorite cheese?

[Sarah Wheaton]

Comte.

[Zoya]

Oof, that was fast.

[Sarah Wheaton]

That's probably like bias for my job. So sorry everybody else.

[Zoya]

I'm partial to like an ashy rindy delicious one or something very blue and funky. Anyway, no more cheese talk before we get started Today, we're going to have a couple of updates for our regular listeners. Yesterday, the winner of the EU customs agency race was announced. This is the city that gets to be the host of this new agency. And it was Lille.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Lille.

[Zoya]

Lille.

[Sarah Wheaton]

All right.

[Zoya]

I was hoping Liege, the hometown hero would come through, but no, no, it

[Sarah Wheaton]

was Lille because Belgium doesn't have enough EU institutions already.

[Zoya]

Yeah, that's a really good point. Right. There's another update. The EU US trade deal that's getting voted in the full European Parliament today. All MEPs are going to be voting on it and reporters from our trade team and our European Parliament reporter, they reckon it's pretty much set to pass. Yep.

[Sarah Wheaton]

And they're even reporting that three way talks with the EU governments, the European Parliament and the Commission will start as soon as April 13th.

[Zoya]

I think that's a scoopy poopy. Not too shabby.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Not too shabby.

[Zoya]

Our first story today. It's a tough one, Sarah. It's about the crisis in Sudan. So senior officials from the UN and the eu, they're meeting in Brussels starting from this morning to discuss the conflict, and they're going to hear from the European Commissioner for Crisis Management, Hajalabib, among others. And this is like a really significant issue that we're not hearing too much about at the moment, Sarah.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah, I mean, I had to remind myself of everything else going on, but this conflict has been going on since 2023, and it's a struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group, the rsf. The latter group has been accused by UN experts of ethnic massacres, sexual violence. Both sides have been accused of carrying out war crimes.

[Zoya]

Yeah, and yesterday I sat down with seven officials from seven different UN agencies, including the unhcr, unicef, the who, and the International Organization for Migration to discuss the conflict. They were in town ahead of this meeting, and the things that they were telling me were really grim, Sarah. I mean, they're Talking about over 30 million people who require humanitarian assistance. At the peak of the crisis, 12 million people had been displaced. Now, that number is around that 9 million mark. But it truly is a pretty horrific crisis. And unfortunately, the UN was super reliant on funding from the US but as a result of the Trump administration's cuts to funding, they are severely, really running out of cash here.

[Sarah Wheaton]

And you look, they also brought up the refugee issue and said this is actually an opportunity to learn from what happened in Syria. They're saying the phase that we're in right now in Sudan is similar to the way Syria looked in 2011, before we saw many people fleeing. They're saying if we act to stabilize the region now, help develop a route to peace, we could potentially avoid the displacement that happened on par with what happened in Syria.

[Zoya]

Yeah. And the main thing that I took took away from this meeting yesterday is that what they need is money and they need attention. This was something that was kind of a repeat message that the Sudan crisis is the worst crisis that we have had in this year. And they said, nonetheless, people just don't seem to be talking about what's happening in Sudan, Some of the reasons for that that they gave us. It's a confusing crisis. We don't really know what's going on. But the flip side of that is that without that attention, they're not getting the level of funding they need, and they really need that funding to ensure that people remain safe. And they talked about the impact on women, the fact that millions of women are looking at really dire circumstances and also at men, at children who are being forced into child, into becoming child soldiers. So it really is very, very grim. And there was this sense of, that I had yesterday, that they were exasperated by the lack of attention.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah. I mean, so then it's no surprise that there are concerns that obviously people want to get out of that situation and head to safer havens like Europe. And, and that's really the kind of political argument that they're trying to make in Europe where people might not otherwise care, frankly.

[Zoya]

Yeah. And what they're saying, you know, we're not seeing the same level of movement as we saw at the peak of that Syria crisis, but that's largely because people are being displaced within Sudan and moving within the region. But the warning was, you know, if we don't resolve this crisis, if there isn't some sort of diplomatic solution, some pressure to stop this crisis, then it could turn into something significantly worse that would push people outside of that region. But that actually brings us to something that's happening in the European Parliament today, which is that there is this vote on the EU returns regulation, which I think kind of is the flip side of this conversation. You know, on the one hand, what the UN is saying, let's solve this crisis in Sudan before it becomes an EU problem. The European Parliament is now dealing with what happens when it becomes an EU problem.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah. So this legislation is saying, look, it needs to be easier to kick out people who we've already decided are not allowed to be in the European Union. And so that would include the possibility of sending rejected asylum seekers to deportation centers outside of the eu. Could also mean expanding detention and entry bans for those who refus to leave.

[Zoya]

Yeah. So there is this vote in the European Parliament this morning, and that's a vote that has been put up by left leaning groups trying to kind of soften the blow of this legislation that is not expected to pass. And then almost immediately this is going to go to these three way talks between the European Parliament Commission and Council, basically also today. So it is, you know, it's a migration day, that's for sure. Sarah. Next up, we've got again, you know, something a little bit different from the podcast. We're still experimenting. We're little baby podcasters. I actually sat down with the Cyprus Europe Minister last night, Marilyna Rona. And so she met me in the Parliament's warren like structures in a meeting room where we had some peanut M&M's and talked about what they've been doing. The Cypriots in their presidency. Now, just as a reminder to our listeners, basically what happens is that every six months there is a new country that takes the helm of the Council, of the eu. And essentially what they do is they are the brokers of these negotiations around all EU legislation that's being negotiated. And it's now Cyprus. And, of course, it has never been a more pertinent time for Cyprus to be at that helm. Sarah? Yeah.

[Sarah Wheaton]

After all, Cyprus has been the only EU country that has been affected by the American Israeli war on Iran.

[Zoya]

Yeah, there was that incident early on in the war where a drone struck a UK air base that's on the Cypriot island. And the other things that we talked about. So we talked about the fact that today, Minister Verona is going to be meeting with the office of the President of the Council, and they're going to be setting the agenda for the informal meeting of EU leaders that's going to be happening in April in Cyprus. And so we talk about that, what's going to be on the agenda, and also how Cyprus plans to ensure that these leaders are safe. Minister Renault, you know, you've got a pretty unique position in Cyprus, and I think it has been uniquely challenging this presidency because while you're trying to hold meetings in Cyprus, there are Iranian drones being directed at British air bases on the island of Cyprus. What is that like being in Cyprus and being potentially in the line of fire?

[Marilena Rauna]

So every presidency, as you know, Zoya, has one or more crises. This is it for us. Obviously, we were a member state that was directly affected. We had this one single isolated incident that took place at the British base of Akrotiri. It was a drone. It caused minimal damage, no casualties. What I would like to stress is that we continue delivering on the presidency. No meetings have been cancelled, and as of April to June, all meetings in Cyprus will take place as planned, including, of course, the informal European Council that will take place on the 23rd and 24th of April.

[Zoya]

This is the European Council. That's the 27 EU heads of state and government who are, as expected. Is it possible to protect those 27 EU heads of state and government in light of what's happening in the region?

[Marilena Rauna]

Absolutely. There is no security risk that right now we see a security situation across the region and across Europe. There is, as I said, full conditions of normality in Cyprus, full conditions of security. All measures will be taken, as all presidencies have done. Also, we are absolutely prepared at all levels.

[Zoya]

Minister, it's almost the halfway point of your presidency. What has surprised you the most?

[Marilena Rauna]

What has surprised me the most, I would say, not that it has surprised me, but I now see it really firsthand. The European Union, when under pressure, when there is a crisis, when we know how to deliver. For example, let's take simplification, let's take competitiveness.

[Zoya]

We've been talking about this for months. It's this idea that Europe needs to be competitive against the us, against China, against other forces.

[Marilena Rauna]

And it's all Zoya, under, I think, the umbrella of how do we make the European Union more autonomous? Right. It's not just security and defense, it's also competitiveness and trade and energy. Finally, making an energy union a reality. It's all of those things. Over the last two, three years, there's been such incredible progress when it comes to security and defence. The kind of investment that has gone in security and defense. And we're seeing now, we're delivering, as president, Ceylon, the safe plans for member states. This kind of progress would have been unthinkable a few years back.

[Zoya]

Safe is this, loans that have been given out by the EU for countries to be able to beef up their defences. And we just saw the latest kind of round of disbursement yesterday.

[Marilena Rauna]

So safe. And also things like military mobility. Right. That is now at the Council, all very important. And then competitiveness, it covers simplification. And as presidency, we now have on our table an advancing work on safety, seven omnibus packages. That's 21 legislative proposals that we are expediting in the Council. And we very recently had an agreement on the digital omnibus, on the AI, on the feed and food safety. But it's also things like our trade policy. Right. Really building up this network of trade agreements. We have the FTA with India. That's such a historic agreement.

[Zoya]

That's a free trade agreement.

[Marilena Rauna]

A free trade agreement. You had mercosur. It was one of the first things we delivered on as presidency. Across the board, I think there is a lot of appetite to deliver despite the challenges. And we need to remember that as a European Union, we are delivering our model. The European model is attractive and it delivers.

[Zoya]

Minister Rauna, I recently had the pleasure of having a Cypriot coffee, which is my favorite coffee, but I wanted to ask you about your coffee habit. You're in this presidency hot seat, you're probably having quite a few. How many coffees do you drink in a day these days?

[Marilena Rauna]

Two, three coffees a day, and usually before lunch. I am kind of the face of the presidency. But there is such an incredible team behind the Cyprus presidency here in Brussels. And In Nicosia, a very dedicated people that are working very hard to deliver on our European agenda.

[Zoya]

Having six coffees a day.

[Marilena Rauna]

It's possible. It's possible.

[Sarah Wheaton]

For our last story, we have some news on a tradition that is much loathed and beloved in Brussels, the acronym. So our colleague Mari Echols, who covers lobbying, has noticed a trend where groups are rebranding from long, weird, technical sounding acronyms to things that are only slightly more catchy.

[Zoya]

So, Etrama or just rolls off the top. Yeah, etra.

[Sarah Wheaton]

I mean, that's exactly the problem. It's now Tires Europe.

[Zoya]

Well, that is better, to be fair. I mean, I'd rather be Tires Europe than Etrema. I'm tired. Europe. What else?

[Sarah Wheaton]

A biom is now Bioenergy Europe.

[Zoya]

I still don't really know what that is.

[Sarah Wheaton]

It's Bioenergy, Zoya.

[Zoya]

Well, my favorite acronym is gac. Or maybe it's fac.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Well, I actually love one called Euro Patatet.

[Zoya]

What is that?

[Sarah Wheaton]

It's the European Potato Trade Association.

[Zoya]

I guess it's right there in the title. There's a hint. The GAC is the General Affairs Council and the FAC is the Foreign Affairs Council. But if you say it fast enough, it sounds like a rude word.

[Sarah Wheaton]

FAC you, Zoya.

[Zoya]

It's just the facts of life, Sarah. Fact check.

[Sarah Wheaton]

True.

[Zoya]

Right, listeners, we're intrigued. What do you like? Do you have a favorite convoluted EU acronym or just like a fun one that sounds like a curse? Let us know. Our WhatsApp number is in the show notes. Before we go, Sarah, what's on tomorrow's EU Confidential?

[Sarah Wheaton]

Well, it's actually something you touched on the other day. Denmark was an example of the epically poor showings we've been seeing from Europe's socialist parties. So we're going to look at what's ailing the center left.

[Zoya]

Oh, and how to make META better.

[Sarah Wheaton]

She could use that advice.

[Zoya]

Right, that's it from us. Before we go, quick birthday shout out to Commissioner Stephane Sejorner.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Bon anniversary.

[Zoya]

Oh, I like that. Hope he gets a cake. I'd like a mud cake for mine. So, just for your reference, folks, if you enjoy the pod, I just have a little favor, a teeny, tiny favor to ask you. Please do tell another person about the show. Just one. Maybe rate us. Maybe review us. Oh, that's three. Three favors, Sarah. I'm Lies. Bracket. Creep.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Lies from the media.

[Zoya]

Mainstream media. That's what we do. Folks. It's been great having you with us today.

[Sarah Wheaton]

I will see you tomorrow I'm gonna

[Zoya]

take the day off you've earned.