The spectacular split in Poland’s right

Summary

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Brussels Playbook Podcast — July 29, 2026

Episode: The spectacular split in Poland’s right
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich
Guest: Ian Wishart, Senior EU Politics Editor

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the political turbulence in Poland, focusing on the dramatic split within the country’s main right-wing party, Law and Justice (PiS), between its iconic leader Jarosław Kaczyński and his former protégé, Mateusz Morawiecki. The hosts explain why this matters for Polish politics and its significant ripple effects in Brussels and the broader European Union. The episode also touches on Montenegro's fast-track EU accession preparations (including a quirky debate about the Montenegrin language), and the looming shutdown of Belgium’s Charleroi Airport—vital news for EU flight travelers and the European low-cost air travel scene.

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Key Discussion Points

1. The Split in Poland’s Right-Wing PiS Party

• Backdrop: Law and Justice (PiS) has dominated Polish politics, governing from 2015–2023, but is now imploding under the weight of a rift between Jarosław Kaczyński (party patriarch, hardliner) and Mateusz Morawiecki (ex-prime minister, considered more moderate).
• Kaczyński is described as “old school, in his late 70s, seen as a hardliner and responsible for Poland’s ‘bad boy’ era in the EU” ([02:05], Zoya).
• Morawiecki, originally Kaczyński’s protégé, “was seen as a more palatable face in Brussels, a younger, maybe slightly more of a reformer” ([02:32], Zoya).

Impact on Polish Politics and Brussels:

• Since the 2023 elections, Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition has held the prime ministership, but key reforms (liberalizing abortion law, restoring judicial independence) have been blocked by a PiS-aligned president, leading to “a difficult time for the Prime Minister” ([02:42], Zoya).
• The split is seen as weakening the Polish right: “Polling does show that basically the support for Tusk is staying pretty steady, but the support for Law and Justice is dropping. That is good news for Tusk” ([03:39], Zoya).
• The division is also significant for political balance in the EU: “There was real fear in Brussels that Tusk was going to lose that election and that there was going to be either a Law and Justice...or even worse, a far-right party coming to power, making things very difficult on the EU level” ([03:39–05:29], Zoya).

Brussels Perspective:

• Tusk, a “former European Council President…is seen as one of them. He’s seen as a Brussels mainstream pro-EU” ([04:11], Ian).
• Kaczyński’s PiS previously “were certainly one of the spoilers on that EU stage...vetoing Russia sanctions, doing all sorts of things the EU didn’t like” ([04:29], Zoya).

Notable Quote

“Law and Justice was part of that camp, spoilers on the EU stage... There was a big sigh of relief when Tusk won the election in ’23.”
— Zoya Sheftalovich [04:29]

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2. Effects on the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) in the European Parliament

• Fragmentation of PiS disrupts the ECR group, where Morawiecki leads and has loyal MEPs.
• ECR "has 78 MEPs, very close... nipping on the heels of the Patriots for Europe, which has 84 MEPs, which is further right” ([05:53], Zoya).
• Losing PiS’s Morawiecki-aligned MEPs would weaken ECR's parliamentary power. However, there’s incentive to retain them: “The ECR is keen to keep these three MEPs... it's not in [their] best interest to let them go” ([06:43], Zoya).
• Ongoing negotiations: "Big conversation... there was to be a meeting as soon as today, but it will happen before the summer break" ([07:16], Zoya).

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3. Montenegro’s Race Toward EU Accession

• The EU is seeking "Montenegrin-speaking officials" in preparation for Montenegro’s desired accession in 2028 ([07:33], Zoya).
• Amusing linguistics debate: Is Montenegrin a distinct language or just a variety of Croatian?
  • “Some people are raising questions about whether Montenegrin is actually its own separate language or is it a bit close to Croatian.” ([08:10], Zoya)
  • Ian: “We were told...it’s actually even less different than an American and a British person speaking English.” ([09:13], Ian)
  • Constitutional note: “It is actually enshrined in their own constitution that Montenegrin is a language in its own right.” ([09:52], Ian)
  • Zoya draws a parallel with the Ukrainian language’s survival and revival. ([10:00], Zoya)
• Costs: Translating all EU documents and providing interpretation will be “very politically kind of sensitive... but it's going to cost a lot of money.” ([08:43–08:44], Ian & Zoya)

Notable Quote

“Some sounds have been added to Montenegrin to distinguish it deliberately. Pronunciation. They've got slightly different pronunciation. Also, they’ve decided to adopt… the Latin Alphabet.”
— Zoya Sheftalovich [09:35]

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4. Charleroi Airport Shut Down — Impact on Low-Cost Flights

• Key info: Belgium’s Charleroi Airport will close entirely from August 15 to October 31, 2028, for runway reconstruction ([11:09], Zoya).
• Critical for direct flights, especially to southern Italy and as a low-cost hub: “Over 100 direct destinations, 10.5 million passengers in 2024, second busiest airport in Belgium” ([12:28], Zoya).
• Concerns for travelers and workers:
  • Serious implications for travel, unions worry “jobs might never come back if airlines decide not to return” ([13:56], Zoya).
• Ryanair standoff: Ongoing dispute with Belgian/Walloon governments over taxes led Ryanair to cut 10% of seats earlier in 2026 ([13:07], Zoya).
  • Ian: “Ryanair particularly likes Belgium at the best of times, does it? Always saying Belgium is trying to make flying more expensive.” ([13:38], Ian)
• Broader trend: “Flights are just going up in general, aren’t they?” ([13:56], Ian)

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5. Listener Feedback: Portugal's Exam Fiasco

• Recap of a previous story: AI marking system in Portugal has massively misgraded exams; listeners share first-hand accounts.
• “Thousands of pages were missing, many scans weren’t done properly. There are exams attributed to one student, but that exam is not what that student has done. And students with good grades are receiving negative ones.”
  — Manuel, 16, Portugal ([14:41], Zoya reading listener message)

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Memorable Moments & Quotes

• “When was the last time you flew out of Charleroi?”
  “Oh, I love the place. So, yeah, I do like to go there a lot.”
  — Zoya & Ian banter [01:10]
• “I know you’re too posh to travel by bus.”
  — Ian Wishart to Zoya Sheftalovich [01:25]
• “But the irony of ironies is that some people are raising questions about whether Montenegrin is actually its own separate language or if it’s a bit close to Croatian.”
  — Zoya Sheftalovich [08:10]
• “What's wrong with the bus? That's fine.”
  — Ian Wishart [01:22]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Polish PiS Party Split & EU Impact: 01:25 – 07:33
• ECR Fragmentation Discussion: 05:29 – 07:33
• Montenegro EU Accession & Language Debate: 07:33 – 10:36
• Charleroi Airport Closure (Travel, Economics, Labor): 10:56 – 13:56
• Listener Mail: Portugal Exam Issues: 14:41 – 15:26

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Summary Tone

The episode carries its usual brisk, knowledgeable, and conversational tone—clear-eyed reporting with flashes of EU nerd humor and insider banter. Zoya and Ian keep it light even as they explain complex political processes, always circling back to why these developments matter for Brussels and Europe.

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Bottom Line

If you missed the episode:

• Poland’s right-wing is fracturing, with huge consequences for the country and EU politics.
• Montenegro’s EU accession looks on track but sparks a linguistic (and budgetary) puzzle.
• Charleroi’s runway repairs are set to shake up travel for millions and unionized workers.
• Listener feedback adds depth to last week’s story on AI exam grading mishaps in Portugal.

For a morning briefing, this episode delivers fresh, nuanced context as Brussels watches these shifting European dynamics closely.

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Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Good morning. It's Wednesday, July 29, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is turbulent as a split in Poland's Law and Justice Party threatens to destabilize the conservatives in the European Parliament. Also on the pod, with Montenegro racing to join the eu, the bloc is hiring Montenegrin speaking officials. And with Belgium's Charleroi airport closing during the second half of 2028 due to works, what does that mean for our low cost flights? I'm Zoya Shiftilovic and with me today is Ian Wishart, our senior EU politics editor. Hey, Ian.

[C]

Hello, Zoya.

[B]

When was the last time you flew out of Charleroi?

[C]

Oh, I love the place. So, yeah, I do like to go there a lot.

[B]

On the flix bus or filler bus or whatever.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Getting in the back of a van.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Famously, there is no rail connection to Shalawai Airport.

[C]

What's wrong with the bus? That's fine.

[B]

Well, that's fine.

[C]

I know you're too posh to travel by bus.

[B]

I am too posh for buses. Listen, before we get to the buses, let's get straight into Polish domestic politics. This is a great one for our producer Jonas, who is made for Polish domestic politics. Anyway, the Law and Justice Party in Poland is cracking up. There's a big split there between Yaroslav Kaczynski, who is the kind of figurehead of Law and Justice. This is the piss party for short. And the former Prime Minister Mateusz Moravecki, who is his, was seen as kind of a protege of his. But now the two of them have had it with each other.

[C]

And Moriavsky was sort of seen as the more moderate one.

[B]

He was. I mean, Kaczynski was old school. He's in his late 70s at this point. He was seen as a hardliner and responsible for a lot of the direction of travel that Poland went through when. When it was the bad boy of the European Union, when it was rolling back on freedom of the press, on independence of judiciary, that sort of stuff.

[C]

The piece was in government in Poland from 2015 to 2023. Morawiecki himself, prime minister from 2017 to 2023.

[B]

Yeah. And he was seen as a more palatable face in Brussels, a younger, maybe slightly more of a reformer, though not really.

[C]

He used to work for Tusk, I think, didn't he?

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

In opposition now.

[B]

Years ago. Years ago, yes. He was working for Tusk many, many years ago. So there is interesting element here of like who's loyal to whom. But the long and the short of this is that basically Donald Tuscu is the Prime Minister of Poland. He heads this civic coalition platform group of centrists. They took power in an election back in 2023. Tusk became the Prime Minister. But a lot of the things that he wanted to do, such as liberalizing abortion laws for instance, or rolling back on some of these judiciary changes, they were blocked by peace aligned. President Navrotsky was elect elected and essentially went about vetoing all of these policies that Tusk wanted to enact. So it's been a difficult time for the Prime Minister.

[C]

Bottom line then is we would think that this fragmentation of the right makes it easier for just to get to push through what he wants, perhaps makes it more likely for him to win the next election. But maybe it's not quite as simple as that.

[B]

Well, certainly that's the direction of travel of the polling. The polling does show that basically the support for Tusk is staying pretty steady, but the support for law and justice is, is dropping. So I think that is good news for Tusk and it's really important because in 2027 the polls are going to go and elect someone for the Prime Ministership. The parliamentary election is being held. When I was reporting on these sorts of things over the past few months, there was a real fear in Brussels that Tusk was going to lose that election and that there was going to be either a law and justice.

[C]

Sorry to interrupt, Zoya, but when you say there was fear in Brussels, it is because, isn't it? Tusk is seen as like one of them. He's seen as a Brussels mainstream pro eu. Pro what? The eu?

[B]

Former European Council President. Absolutely, he is.

[C]

So fear can be used in the right word from their perspective.

[B]

Yes. And certainly, I mean, I'm not saying I'm afraid, I'm just saying this was definitely a sense. When you talk to the various camps around town, people were saying, look, this was both when Viktor Orban was on the scene and also after he had left, they were saying, look, we had this little camp of right wing kind of far Right. Populace who were making things very difficult on the EU level, making it difficult to pass legislation, vetoing Russia sanctions, doing all sorts of things that the EU didn't like. And previously Law and Justice was part of that camp. When Prime Minister Morawiecki was in power, they were certainly one of the spoilers on that EU stage. There was a big sigh of relief when Tusk won the election in 23. And now over the past sort of six months with, with the polling showing that Civic Platform wasn't doing so well, that TUS wasn't doing so well, there was fear that there would be a return to those bad old days. And in fact there was also fear that things might get even worse from Brussels perspective because the far right, even further right than Law and Justice, was doing quite well in the polls as well.

[C]

So of course, talking about Brussels specifically, this is interesting because Morawiecki is the leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists Party, the ecr, the right wing party, the ECR itself, the group in the European Parliament has three MEPs who are aligned to him. So Peace being the party that's in the ecr. So this really complicates matters, doesn't it?

[B]

It does. So the parliamentary group has 78 MEPs, and that's very close, nipping on the heels of the Patriots for Europe, which has 84 MEP, which is further right. Further right. And they really want to maintain power because basically it's very important if you're a group in the European Parliament, to have as many people as you can, as many MEPs as you can in that group, because the sorts of positions that you're likely to get, the kind of files that you're able to get control of, the committees that you have leadership positions in are based on your strength in numbers. So it is important, even speaking time is reliant on having lots of MEPs. So if they lose three, they get further away from their goal. They were kind of hoping to catch up to the Patriots.

[C]

It's not automatic, it's not definite that they would leave the ecr, but I think it's probably quite expected, isn't it?

[B]

Look, I'm not sure that that's actually true because our colleague Gerardo Fortuna has been reporting this out and this is in Brussels playbook today. You know, it is quite advantageous to the ECR to keep these three MEPs. It's three MEPs who are part of this, aligned with. Yeah, yeah. Who are aligned with these kind of rebellious muravecky camp. So I think you know, there is an interest in the ECR in keeping them on board. So I think a big conversation is happening right now, and there was even going to be a meeting as soon as today, but it's looking like that's not going to happen today. But it will happen before the summer break, before everyone goes away, where they are going to discuss whether this is a good idea or not. But Gerardo reckons this wouldn't be in the ECR's best interest, so they're probably going to try and hold on. Ian, do you know Montenegrin?

[C]

The language? The language, not a word.

[B]

Well, that's a shame, because you're not going to be able to apply for some of the new plum jobs that are going at the council.

[C]

This is with the expectation that Montenegro is going to join the EU then, is it?

[B]

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So it's in kind of the real rush stage to finish negotiations.

[C]

Frontrunner.

[B]

Total frontrunner.

[C]

20. 28.

[B]

That is the hope in Montenegro. 28. By 28, they want to be the country that joins in 28. But in preparation for the accession of Montenegro, the council of the EU's legal service is looking for people that can help draft the accession treaty.

[C]

Speaking of 28, this won't be the 28th language, however, will it?

[B]

It will not be. I think it'll be. But the irony of ironies is that some people are raising questions about whether Montenegrin is actually its own separate language or if it's a bit close to Croatian.

[C]

It's really similar to Croatian.

[B]

It is. It is, according to our Croatian, but

[C]

it's going to be. But it is going to be an official separate language if Montenegro joins.

[B]

It is. And this is actually very politically kind of sensitive because obviously there is this strong sense of national identity that comes with being a separate country of your own, particularly when wars have been fought,

[C]

which is going to cost a lot of money, though.

[B]

It is going to cost a lot of money, because we're talking about having to translate everything into a 25th language, having to have translation available when there's an event, so that there's a translator kind of doing the live translation in a headpiece. If you're a journalist covering an event, it means lawyers. I mean, translation of legal text is very difficult, much more difficult than other things. But it's super interesting at the same time, because the question is to what extent there is variation in. In the language in Montenegrin.

[C]

Well, I. We were told, weren't we, by one of our colleagues yesterday who speaks it, that it's actually even less different than an American and a British person speaking English.

[B]

Yeah. I was looking into this. I went on a little deep dive as a fan of linguistics.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

And it seems like the kind of key differences are there have been a few new sounds that have been added to Montenegrin to distinguish.

[C]

Distinguish them deliberately.

[B]

Pronunciation. Yeah. So they've got slightly different pronunciation.

[C]

Give me an example.

[B]

No.

[C]

Okay.

[B]

Because I. I am not Montenegrin, nor Croatian. But there are some sounds that are different. And they've also decided to adopt, rather than the Cyrillic Alphabet, they're going to go with the Latin Alphabet. So that's pretty interesting as well.

[C]

I do see, Zoe. It is actually enshrined in their own constitution that Montenegrin is a language in its own right.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And I think, Look, I think they've got a solid reason to argue that it is. And may I say, you know, the Ukrainian experience, I think, is quite interesting, because there was an attempt made during the Soviet period to stamp out Ukrainian as its own language, and the Alphabet was kind of changed. Pronunciation of words change. But Ukrainians after the Soviet period have really re. Embraced Ukrainian and returned back to the way that it was previously in a lot of ways. So I can see the Montenegro argument.

[C]

I actually would like somebody to WhatsApp us a voice note with who knows? Knows both languages, so you can say a word that's different in Montenegro and Croatian. I think that'd be quite interesting.

[B]

It would be super good to play on the podcast. And actually, you know, I was trying to track down some professors earlier today, again, because I'm a nerd and couldn't find any who are still in their offices. So this would be a huge public service to the politico towers.

[C]

WhatsApp number is in the show notes.

[B]

Indeed it is.

[C]

Shall we talk about an airport close to our hearts, Sawyer?

[B]

Yes, but not close to our capital, because it might be called Brussels south, but it is miles.

[C]

Nobody actually calls it that, though, do they? Charleroi?

[B]

I don't know. Someone is meant to. But anyway, it's bad news for everyone, though, because in the second half of 2028, from 15 August to 31 October, in fact, the whole thing is shutting down. This is a pretty key airport. There are some parts of Italy that are really only accessible from Charlemagne if you want a direct flight to bits of southern Italy. Essentially, anything aside from Rome south, apparently, our colleagues tell us, is basically Charleroi territory.

[C]

Who's going to have the EU presidency at that time is Latvia.

[B]

That is going to be Latvia. Yeah.

[C]

Going to be okay.

[B]

I think they might be all right. Although Wizz Air, which is like the big Eastern European discount airline, I think that's the second largest carrier flying out of Shaloha. So there are some serious issues that this will create. I mean, granted it's for a few months, so it's not going to be a be all and end all deal breaker, but it is a pretty significant thing. Do you know why this is happening?

[C]

They're redoing their own way, aren't they? They're. They're reconstructing it. They've only got one, so they can't use it.

[B]

I can't believe they've only got one. It's quite astonishing, a small airport.

[C]

I mean, this is the thing with these no frills airlines really, that these airports have sort of built up around them in the, in the 90s when all the no frills airlines took off. And I suppose the infrastructure hasn't quite caught up.

[B]

Yeah, but like, theoretically it's just one Runway, but you know, it is 10.5.

[C]

Theoretically.

[B]

Okay, practically, literally it's one Runway. But like, the stats are pretty astonishing. There are over 100 direct destinations serviced by Charleroi. 10.5 million passengers in 2024 flew from Charleroi. It's the second busiest airport in Belgium. I mean, that's a low bar, but nonetheless. So there's not really a plan for relocation at this point yet. The question is, you know, will those flights be redirected to Zavantam, which the biggest airport in Brussels? Will it go to neighboring countries? Not clear yet. The airport has told our colleagues on our mobility team that they're working on it. The plan is coming together so probably, you know, something will happen.

[C]

The airport, am I right? Still engaged in this standoff with Ryanair over tax?

[B]

Yeah, that's totally correct. So back in January, Ryanair actually said that it was going to remove around about 10% of its capacity from Shaloha. That's around about 1.1 million seats. This was over this tax that the Walloon government wanted to implement where they were going to be charging a few euro per passenger for everyone who was departing. And Ryanair was like, well, this is going to make this uncommercial for us. So that's why they decided to pull these flights.

[C]

I think Ryanair particularly likes Belgium at the best of times. Does it? Always saying Belgium is trying to make flying more expensive. This is other tax that the federal government have brought in. It's. But I think it's one of those things where all Governments around Europe seem to be doing the same. And I think flights are just going up in general, aren't they?

[B]

Yeah, well, look, people are a bit concerned. I mean, we're all. It's all fun and games when we're talking about holidays, but there are also people who work at Charleroi airport and unions are concerned that maybe this might affect wages, that it might mean that those jobs never come back, because if various companies decide not to run routes from Charleroi after they reopen, then that might affect things. So it is pretty serious, too. Hey, Ian, last week we had a really interesting segment on the Portuguese exam system where loads of people have had their. An issue with their tests. So students who sat tests have had those tests basically messed up by the AI marking system. Well, we got a message from one of our listeners, Manuel, who's 16 years old from Portugal.

[C]

Thanks for listening, Manuel.

[B]

Yeah, indeed. And he said he hasn't been affected himself, but he's got a few friends who have been and are desperately in search for a solution. And he writes in the situation is more chaotic than what is really known. Thousands of pages were missing, many scans weren't done properly. There are exams attributed to one student, but that exam is not what that student has done. And students with good grades are receiving negative ones.

[C]

Well, that's shocking. But at least he's got the podcast to listen to, to. To keep him entertained.

[B]

Yeah, absolutely. And speaking of the podcast, yeah, hopefully he and all his friends can give us a rating, write us a review, let their friends know, but make sure

[C]

your grade is better than the ones that are more reliable than the ones you're getting in your exam.

[B]

Yeah.