Time for a tense summit

Summary

Brussels Playbook Podcast: Time for a Tense Summit

Date: March 19, 2026
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich (POLITICO Chief EU Correspondent)
Guest: Sarah Wheaton (Policy Editor)

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Episode Overview

This episode of the Brussels Playbook Podcast focuses on a highly anticipated and tense European Council summit ("Yuko day"), where Europe's key leaders are facing gridlocks on critical issues: financing for Ukraine amid Hungarian veto threats, spiraling geopolitical tensions affecting energy and trade, and even a surplus of Belgian frozen fries. Host Zoya Sheftalovich and policy editor Sarah Wheaton break down the summit’s high-stakes negotiations, the status of the EU-US trade deal, internal EU power struggles, and one unusual agricultural dilemma.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The European Council Summit: Tensions at the Top Table

[00:30-05:20]

• What is "Yuko Day"?

  • The European Council summit gathers leaders of the 27 EU countries, the heads of the Commission and Council, and the Parliament president to hash out major decisions.
  • Zoya: "It's just a fancy way of saying all of the EU's 27 leaders... get together in Brussels to have a chat." [01:10]

• The Ukraine Aid Blockade

  • Key focus: Hungary’s Viktor Orbán is blocking a critical €90 billion loan to Ukraine, which had previously been agreed by all EU leaders in December.
  • Orbán is demanding the reopening of Russian oil flow via the Druzhba pipeline through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia as a precondition.
  • Expert delegations are now checking the Ukrainian claim that the pipeline is damaged, seen as a key to unlocking the funds.
  • Zoya: "He’s effectively holding this loan hostage." [02:30]

• Unprecedented Diplomatic Breakdown

  • As Sarah notes: "It's completely unprecedented for a leader to backtrack on a deal that they made. But that's where we're at now." [02:19]
  • EU frustration is mounting, with Germany’s Foreign Minister and Sweden raising the possibility of invoking Article 7—stripping Hungary of its EU voting rights.
  • But, as Zoya explains, "the problem with Article 7 is that it requires unanimous approval from the other 26 countries," which is unlikely, as other leaders fear being targeted next. [04:14]

• The Political Calculus

  • With Hungary’s election looming (April 12), Orbán is leveraging the situation to play to domestic voters, potentially relishing the confrontation for political gain.

  Zoya: "He may even relish that fight because he can... tell his audience how he’s standing up to the man in Brussels." [05:00]

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2. Competing Priorities and a Hijacked Agenda

[05:20-07:44]

• Wider Summit Agenda, Derailed by Global Crises

  • Originally centered on EU competitiveness, the summit has been overtaken by the Israel-Iran conflict, Trump’s unpredictable policies, and resultant energy shocks.
  • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices soaring, contributing to EU leaders’ worries, especially with little leverage to resolve the crisis.

  Zoya: "It’s not just oil... it’s a key strait for the transport of fertilizers... all in all, there's a lot of kind of fear and worry at the EU table." [05:37]

• Fractured EU Consensus on Geopolitical Language

  • Spain's PM, Pedro Sánchez, wants strong language criticizing violations of international law, while Germany and others prefer caution to avoid antagonizing Trump and jeopardizing the EU-US trade deal.
  • Even boilerplate council conclusions are now contentious.

  Sarah: "Even on these basics... you can’t get on one page." [06:59]

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3. Europe’s Energy Conundrum

[06:59-08:55]

• Soaring Prices and Policy Divides

  • There's no single European approach; countries argue over taxes, subsidies, and how to shield industry from high prices.
  • Von der Leyen has laid out "options," but inflation fears cast a shadow.

• Debate Over the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)

  • Some (Denmark, Finland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden) push for more renewables and defending the ETS; others (Italy, Poland) argue the crisis should prompt an overhaul.
  • A coalition of 10 countries wants the commission’s ETS review moved up to May.

  Zoya (quoting a source): "'The baby's dead.' Baby was the ETS, but is it dead? We'll see." [08:34]

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4. Update on the EU-US Trade Deal

[08:57-11:22]

• What's at Stake?

  • The deal negotiated by von der Leyen and Trump at Turnberry Golf Course is viewed as lopsided in favor of the US, but European leaders accepted it to avoid a trade war.
  • The European Parliament is set to vote on eliminating tariffs on a wide range of US industrial goods, while the US is to ease steel tariffs.

  Zoya: "It was a pretty lopsided deal, favored the US pretty heavily... but ultimately it's what the big EU countries wanted." [08:57]

• MEP Reluctance—and US Lobbying

  • European Parliament hesitancy remains due to Trump’s unpredictability and recent US court decisions unsettling tariff policy.
  • Sarah describes a significant moment: US Trade Rep. Jamison Greer called MEP Bernd Lange to personally lobby for the deal, promising further tariff concessions. This turned some key political groups and likely secured a committee majority.
  • Final plenary vote date remains undecided.

  Sarah: "We're seeing a lobbying push from Washington for once... that reassurance helped bring the Socialists and Democrats on board." [10:27]

  Zoya: "This kind of shows that the US is starting to feel the isolation it has essentially imposed upon itself on the global scale." [11:22]

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5. Belgium’s Superabundance of Frozen Fries

[12:01-13:15]

• Potato Glut Spills onto the Streets

  • Last year’s bumper potato crop means Belgian factories have too many potatoes and are cutting back production or even dumping potatoes in protest at EU farm policy.
  • WTO recently ruled against Colombian anti-dumping restrictions, reopening the Colombian market for Belgian fries.

  Sarah: "Frozen fry factories are shutting down, laying people off or... cutting down their production because they have a glut." [12:22]

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6. Notable Quotes & Moments

• Zoya on the never-ending summit drama:
  "Well, it’s going to be a big summit, Sarah. I suspect you and I are going to be up quite a long time." [08:34]

• Sarah on coping with a long summit night:
  "I'm already pouring another mug of coffee." [08:55]

• Closing banter on Mario Monti’s birthday:
  Zoya: "Guess how old he's turning."
  Sarah: "39."
  Zoya: "Oh, you are too kind, Sarah. He's 83." [13:54-13:58]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Summit Tensions & Ukraine Funding Blockade: 00:30–05:20
• Geopolitical/Trade Agenda Disrupted: 05:20–07:44
• Energy Crisis & ETS Debate: 06:59–08:55
• EU-US Trade Deal and US Lobbying: 08:57–11:22
• Belgian Fries Glut Story: 12:01–13:15

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Tone and Style

• The discussion is clear, fast-paced, and conversational, full of reporting nuance and journalistic asides.
• The hosts mix serious insights on behind-the-scenes EU maneuvering (“the carrot for Viktor Orban”) with humor and human color (the frozen fry crisis and birthday jokes).

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Summary for New Listeners

In this episode, Zoya Sheftalovich and Sarah Wheaton offer a timely, inside look at the European Council’s tense standoff over Ukraine funding, the fractured EU response to new geopolitical shocks, and the struggle to keep long-term priorities like competitiveness and energy reform on the agenda. Listeners gain real-time clarity about leaders’ battles, diplomatic brinkmanship with Hungary’s Orbán, anticipation over the fate of the EU-US trade deal, and the lighter side of EU agriculture policy. The episode captures the complexity, divisions, and personalities driving the day in Brussels’s corridors of power—right down to the last (overcooked) Belgian potato.

Transcript

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[Zora Sheftolovich]

Good morning. It's Thursday, March 19th, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in town today is apprehensive, with all eyes on a summit of EU leaders. And also on the pod. The fate of the EU US Trade deal is hanging in the balance. Plus, Belgium has too many frozen fries. What a problem to have. I'm Zora Sheftolovich, and with me today is one of our policy editors, Sarah Wheaton. Hey, Sarah, how do you like a potato?

[Sarah Wheaton]

I mean, this is a big dispute in my household. Mayonnaise are ketchup. And, well, as an American, I'm red all the way.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

It runs deep in your veins. I like a little bit of both. I like to dip in one, dip in the other, Aussie style. We like to be in between. Well, Sarah, today it's Yuko day. One of my favorite days when it comes up, that's the European Council summit, which is just a fancy way of saying all of the EU's 27 leaders, plus the European Commission president, plus the European Council president, plus the European Parliament president, get together in Brussels to have a chat.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Plus a bunch of journalists very bored,

[Zora Sheftolovich]

waiting on the sidelines trying to figure out what they're saying in the closed room. And also, unfortunately for Roberto Mazzola, the parliament president, she has to leave at a certain point, and then it's just the others, and she's probably wondering what they're saying, too.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Well, she should read POLITICO's life blog.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

Oh, yes, the Live blog. Actually, everyone should read the Politico Live blog, because that's kicking off right about now. Listen, it's going to be a big one today, Sarah, because the really big topic is about whether Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, allows Ukraine to get this 90 billion euros loan that it desperately needs to stay afloat. This is something we've been talking about for several months. That's the loan that Viktor Orban and every other EU leader agreed to back in December and And now he's holding things up. Yeah.

[Sarah Wheaton]

And as you discussed with Ian yesterday, it's completely unprecedented for a leader to backtrack on a deal that they made. But that's where we're at now. And leaders are gonna see if they can get him to agree to it a second time. How's that gonna go?

[Zora Sheftolovich]

Yeah, I mean, essentially the way leaders see it is he's already agreed and there is no agreeing to it a second time because that's unheard of. The fact is that that decision has been made. But in practice what's happened is that he, he's effectively holding this loan hostage. And what he has said is that until oil starts flowing through the Druzhba pipeline, which is that oil pipeline that takes Russian oil from Russia through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia, unless oil starts pumping through there again, he's not going to allow this money to flow to Ukraine. So yesterday the EU sent a delegation of experts from the commission and also from nations to have a look and check out what's going on with this pipeline. And that is seen as kind of a key to unlocking this money for Ukraine. So the idea is basically these experts are going to go and they're going to check whether a, the pipeline is actually damaged, which is what Ukraine has said, and then check how long it's going to take and how it's going to be fixed. And so the idea is basically on the one hand we've got this carrot for Viktor Orban in the form of figuring out what's going on with the pipeline. And that is the thing that he wants to sort of sell as a win ahead of his April election. And on the other hand, they're going to really push him to stick to his word.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah, I mean, we're hearing increasing frustration from top EU figures about Orban kind of going back on his word. We heard Germany's Foreign Minister, Johannes Wodeful, warn during a closed door foreign affairs meeting on Monday that Hungary's obstructionism could no longer be tolerated. And Sweden's Europe Minister, Jessica Rosenkranz, actually just told our colleague Nick Winicker that her country was open to putting Article 7 on the, on the table. That's basically this nuclear option that we talk about of removing voting rights from a country.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

Yeah, but the problem with Article 7 is that it requires unanimous approval from the other 26 countries. And we know that Orban is protected by his friend Fico, who's from Slovakia, Robert Fitzo, the Prime Minister. But also there may be other countries that might sort of look at this and think, oh, I don't know, if I vote in favor of using Article 7 against Hungary, who knows, Maybe tomorrow it'll be me. So it's a tough sell, that one. But, look, ultimately the question is whether this pressure campaign and this Druzhba kind of olive branch will be enough to get Orban to move. And at this point in time, it's too early to say those talks are still happening. One of the things that the EU wants is for more pressure to be put on orban via the EU's leaders. Some of the heavy hitters like Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, and maybe Emmanuel Macron, the French president, they think maybe the two of them could move the dial a little bit. But with Viktor Orban so close to that Hungarian election on April 12, there's just no telling what is going to be politically expedient. And he may even relish that fight because he can then, you know, put up some videos, as he likes to do, and tell his audience how he's standing up to the man in Brussels.

[Sarah Wheaton]

We have. So domestic politics in Hungary are essentially holding up EU action in Ukraine. And meanwhile, kind of the broader agenda of this Yuko, which was meant to be about competitiveness, has been completely taken over, basically by Trump and Israel's war in Iran.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

Yeah, and this is like the Yuko curse, because last time we had Trump's threats to Greenland, which essentially consumed all the oxygen in the room. This time, it's this war, which has oil prices skyrocketing because the Strait of Hormuz is closed and the 20% of the world's oil goes through there. It's not just oil that countries are concerned about, because also it's a key strait for the transport of fertilizers. So all in all, there's a lot of kind of fear and worry at the EU table, particularly because the EU was cut out of this decision. But ultimately, you know, there isn't much that Europe can do. They can just sit on the sidelines.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah. And that's where we're seeing divisions emerge in the eu. I mean, we're kind of at this moment now where even boilerplate language is becoming a source of division. So people like Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who have been very forceful in saying this war is against international law, his camp wants that type of language to be in the European Council conclusions, which is kind of this formal document that all the leaders endorse at the end of this meeting. But another group of countries, including Germany, they're like, hey, do we really need to antagonize Trump on this particular topic right now? It'll just make him angry. And, hey, we have this EU US Trade deal that we're trying to sort out, and we'll talk about that in a minute. But the reality is that even on these basics that you can't, can't get on one page.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

Yeah. That's not the only disagreement when it comes to this particular war. I mean, a key issue at this European Council summit, and in general in Europe right now, is how to respond to the surge in energy prices. And again, there's lots of views there, because you've got some countries that have taxes on energy, some that don't. You have some countries that want to subsidize industry that is heavily reliant on energy, some that don't. The EU has sort of indicated, look, there are options available on the table that countries can take, and they've presented them. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, has sort of given people some options and some ideas and said, look, there is stuff you can do, but ultimately it's a difficult one because we saw that last time there was a big energy crisis, it actually led to a lot of inflation. Yeah.

[Sarah Wheaton]

And we're seeing this, this big picture existential debate play out. We have one school of thought that says, hey, high energy prices, it's time to dive more into renewables. Countries like Denmark, Finland, Portugal, Spain and Sweden, they're going to be pushing that, and they want to defend Europe's landmark emissions trading system. That's the system that requires factories and power plants to pay for their warming pollution. But then, on the other hand, countries that rely on fossil fuels, like Italy and Poland are like, hey, actually, let's use this moment to make some adjustments to the emissions trading system. And they're not alone. Just yesterday, ahead of the summit, we saw a bigger group of 10 countries say, hey, commission, you're supposed to look at the emissions trading system this summer, but let's move this review up to, to May because we have some real issues here.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

Yeah, I mean, that's politically expeditious to put this on the table now. And certainly the ETS has some enemies who've been trying to kill the baby. As one particular enemy of the ETS told me the other night, he said, the baby's dead. Baby was the ets, but is it dead? We'll see. Well, it's going to be a big summit, Sarah. I suspect you and I are going to be up quite a long time.

[Sarah Wheaton]

I'm already pouring another mug of coffee.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

I'm going to have two. Okay, Sarah, let's get to our second story today. It's this vote happening in the European Parliament on the EU US Trade deal. That's that deal that was struck by Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump at the Turnbury Golf course, or golf curse, as I like to call it sometimes. And it was a pretty lopsided deal, favored the US Pretty heavily. There was a lot of criticism, but ultimately it's what the big EU countries wanted. Because they were afraid of a trade war.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah, exactly. And so today in the European Parliament, we're seeing the trade committee vote on part of it, basically whether to implement the EU's end of the bargain. That means removing tariffs on a wide range of U.S. industrial goods. We're talking machinery, industrial equipment, construction materials, furniture.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

Yeah. And in return, the US was meant to ease its tariffs, especially on steel related products.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah. So the EU reached this deal with with Trump eight months ago, but it's been stuck.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

Yeah, it's been stuck because MEPs are pretty hesitant because basically there's unpredictability in the US firstly from Trump himself, who keeps threatening more tariffs. Essentially when he was threatening to take Greenland by force, he threatened countries with tariffs. And also because there is a pretty significant instability as a result of court rulings that have struck down key parts of his tariff policy. So the question mark that the EU has is that MEPs are dealing with right now. Can you actually trust the US to uphold its end of the bargain?

[Sarah Wheaton]

But interestingly, we're seeing a lobbying push from Washington for once. They actually seem kind of worried that Europe is not going to go along. A key moment was a call between U.S. trade Representative Jamison Greer and Bernd Lange. He's a key trade mep. The US signaled that it could scale back some steel related tariffs because they were worried that this wasn't going to go through. As our trade colleagues have reported, that reassurance helped bring the Socialists and Democrats on board and once they moved, a broad majority was able to form.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

Yeah. So it looks like now probably the deal is going to move forward. Do we know if it's going to pass today?

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah, so today we expect it to pass. But the plenary vote, when all the MEPs have to vote up or down, that is the big question mark.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

And when's that happening?

[Sarah Wheaton]

There's still a disagreement on timing, so the center at European People's Party wants it next week, but others want to wait until later in the spring. So we'll have to see what they hash out behind the scenes there.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

Yeah, maybe Jamison Graham might pick up the phone again. I mean, I think the very fact that that phone call got made is a pretty interesting point, because Donald Trump has always been very bombastic on trade and on all of his tariff threats. I think this kind of shows that the US is starting to feel the isolation that it has essentially imposed upon itself on the global scale. And the geopolitics of that isolation, I think it's starting to feel it. But let's see. Let's see what happens. Sarah. Our final story today is a super Belgian problem. Did you know that Belgium is the world's top exporter of frozen fries?

[Sarah Wheaton]

I mean, Belgians will remind me of that every day.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

And you've got a fiance who's right there to. To do that reminding. Well, listen, there was a bumper potato crop in 2025, and what that means is that there's just too many potatoes. The Belgians have nowhere to put them except the streets of Rue de la Loire, where they burn them in protest at EU farm policy.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah, my colleague Katrina Khatova wrote about this the other day, and she looked into it. Basically, they did dump all those potatoes on the streets during the protest because they have too many. It's so bad that frozen fry factories are shutting down, laying people off or kind of cutting down their production because they have a glut. But there's good news.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

Go on. Is it that they've invited me to their factory to eat all their frozen fries because I'm down?

[Sarah Wheaton]

I think they would. They would be glad to hear that. But the Colombians are also potentially going to be eating these frites because they had tried to block dumping, basically saying that Belgium and some other European countries were offloading their over capacity of potatoes on Latin American markets. And a ruling by the World Trade Organization basically said, nope, this is fine. So now the Colombians have had to lift those restrictions.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

Well, maybe the golden years of the potato sector might be back. Hey, Sarah, what's going to be on EU Confidential tomorrow? Well, I hope you, Zoya, I'll be there.

[Sarah Wheaton]

I'm pinning you down now to be with me at the Yuko later tonight. Also, Anne McAvoy is planning to interview UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who is also in town to discuss current issues with the leaders.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

Yeah, he's going to be at that Yuko. And look, he may have some views as to how to unblock that Strait of Hormuz. Who knows? Well, before we go today, we've got a special birthday. It's former European commissioner and former Italian prime Minister Mario Monti. Guess how old he's turning.

[Sarah Wheaton]

39.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

Oh, you are too kind, Sarah. He's 83.

[Sarah Wheaton]

I didn't say whether it's his first 39th birthday or his 40th.

[Zora Sheftolovich]

Well, some of us are on our 10th, folks. That's just about it for us today. But if you've got a question or a comment, a burning inquiry, if you want to know what we like to eat, our favorite fruits, our favorite way to eat potato. Mine is fried. Send them to us on our WhatsApp numbers in the show notes, review us, rate us, and keep listening. We love you guys.

[Emily Schulthuis]

Hey, this is Emily Schulthuis. I'm the senior editorial director of POLITICO's live journalism events. On Tuesday here in Brussels, we're diving into Europe's efforts to compete on the global stage on everything from energy policy to simplification to defense and security. Zoya will be there for a live recording of the podcast Register to join us in person for the competitive Europe summit or follow the discussions live on Politico Euro.