EU Confidential – Trump Bites. Europe Grasps for an Antidote.

POLITICO Europe • Host: Sarah Wheaton • Date: January 16, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode addresses Europe’s search for resilience as Donald Trump's unpredictable and forceful second presidential term shapes global politics. Host Sarah Wheaton speaks with Arantxa Gonzalez Laya, former Spanish foreign minister and current dean at Sciences Po, about how the EU can move from reactive anxiety to strategic action—what she calls “the antidote” to chaos and coercion. The episode also features a profile of Dan Jorgensen, the EU Energy & Housing Commissioner, with a focus on Europe’s push for affordable housing and ending Russian gas imports.

PART 1: Facing Trump's New World – Arantxa Gonzalez Laya [01:00–22:59]

The European Mood Shift

• Sarah Wheaton notes a dramatic shift in Brussels' attitude. Actions that once seemed bluster—like Trump’s talk about Greenland—now appear frighteningly possible since his second term ("he abducted the leader of Venezuela and put him in a jail cell in New York City" [01:00]).
• Key Question: Can Europe do anything, or is it caught in a new era of “might makes right”?

What Is Europe’s Antidote? [03:52–04:46]

Arantxa Gonzalez Laya:

• “No, I think the reality around us is moving much faster than our ability to adjust. And what we have to keep in mind is that we have an antidote to what is happening.” [03:52]
• She emphasizes not simply following but setting Europe’s agenda: “The antidote for Europe is to talk less and to do more because the doing more will help build the European deterrence capacity that is so necessary in a world where, again, might is right.” [04:21]

Pillars of the Antidote [04:56–06:33]

• Energy Integration: Connect national markets to resist weaponization of fossil fuels; lower costs across the EU.
• Deepening the Internal Market: Each step makes Europe less vulnerable and more resistant to economic coercion.
• Rejecting the "Politics of Inevitability":

  “We are surrounded by what I call the politics of inevitability that makes everyone believe, including ourselves, that the race is over, that we've already lost. No, we have not lost. We will lose if we don't get going.” [06:18]

The MERCOSUR Dilemma & EU Trade Strategy [06:33–09:58]

• Political Hurdles: Even favorable trade deals (like MERCOSUR) hit internal resistance from Parliament and national capitals.
• Opportunities: The MERCOSUR deal shores up ties in South America (in the “backyard” of Trump) and acts as a strategic counterweight.
• Economic & Geopolitical Link:

  “It's a signal that Europe wants to play the game of negotiating an agreement and agreeing with partners, treating other countries as partners, not imposing conditions on partners. And this is… important. Also geopolitical.” [08:35]

• Clarifies concerns about agriculture and consumer protection: “The EU does not allow substandard products entering into its own market. The protection of consumer comes first…” [08:23]

NATO, Greenland, and Trump's Unpredictable Moves [09:58–12:04]

• Trump’s renewed Greenland ambitions undermine NATO:

  “The fact that two allies in a defense alliance called NATO talking this manner weakens the deterrence capacity of the alliance. And that is what worries me.” [10:17]

• The real danger is “weakening the deterrence capacity of NATO” as opposed to the specifics of the Greenland rhetoric [10:51].
• Call for “more attention to the Arctic… as allies that we are, and let's do this in a cooperating manner, because in an alliance, if it's under duress, then there is no alliance.” [11:37]

Defence: Europe’s Path Toward Autonomy? [12:04–16:39]

• Strengthening EU Security is the true antidote to coercion, not just against Trump but generally:

  “The best antidote for a world where coercion is the norm is to strengthen yourself, is to build your capacity to resist those that want to push you.” [13:13]

• Toward a European Army:

  “We could very well do this under a European flag… at this time, the narrative and the projection of the project matters to drive energy towards that.” [13:57]

• Historical parallel: skepticism toward the euro—now a reality.
• Solidarity in Action: Spain and others already defend Eastern Europe under NATO; could do so under EU flag if the rules are clear:

  “All I can say is that I have seen… European soldiers defending stability, peace, democracy…” [15:48]

Iran, Protest, and Europe’s Response [16:39–20:39]

• Massive protests in Iran reflect a “broken deal” with the population; unrest is national, not just urban or gender-specific.
• On regime change:

  “I would want to see an Iran where the citizens in Iran decide what kind of political system they want. That's what I would like to see. But what I'm saying is that we have to be cautious… about military interventions that do not take into account the impact this would have on the population.” [18:45]

• Europe’s role: provide support for change but avoid fueling violence; support transition without destabilizing the region further [19:38].

Geopolitics in the Classroom [20:39–22:52]

• Teaching in Turbulent Times: Gonzalez Laya says the focus at Sciences Po is on critical thinking and empowering students not to "give up, not to think that it's doomed, not to think that it's finished… to be shapers, not just observers." [21:30]
• Memorable reflection on the next generation:

  “In a world that sometimes looks very zero sum, they are a reminder to me and to my colleagues that the world is not zero sum game, that there is an amazing capacity and incredible possibilities to make this win, win.” [22:36]

PART 2: Who’s Who – Dan Jorgensen, Commissioner for Energy & Housing [23:03–33:43]

Meet Dan Jorgensen [23:48–24:26]

• Danish social democrat. Previously a climate and energy minister; led key committees in EU Parliament.
• “He is a huge defender of the spoken word”—hosted the podcast "Planet A".
• Described as “pretty fun… pretty serious… very clear passions”—especially housing [24:31].

The Affordable Housing Crusade [25:10–29:35]

• Personal Take:

  “If you're forced to live with your parents longer than you should… it postpones a very important part of the start of your adult life… That is just a huge problem and I totally understand if people are reacting against it.” —Dan Jorgensen [25:10]

• Policy Vision: Inspired by Copenhagen: no visible divide between social & luxury housing—"that should be the goal for Europe." [25:55]
• EU Plan:
  • Revises state aid rules so that not only the poorest but also middle classes can access public funds for housing [27:49].
  • Pushes for a single market for construction: easier movement of materials and qualification recognition for workers across borders [28:39].

Battling Short-Term Rentals [29:35–31:56]

• Short-term rentals can “account for up to 20% of the houses” in some cities, adding to scarcity for residents.
• Jorgensen:

  “I actually think there’s many valuable things to say [for short-term rentals]… But the growth has been, I think, at a rate that nobody could have imagined…” [30:09]

• New Legislation: EU to give cities tools (but not one-size-fits-all mandates) for local limits: caps on rental nights, seasonal restrictions, pause/ban on new licenses.

Energy Portfolio: Ending Russian Gas [31:56–32:57]

• Big Win: EU to end all LNG imports from Russia by September 2026, pipeline gas by September 2027.
• In 2022, Russia supplied 45% of EU’s gas; now down to 13%.
• Praised for proactive action to reduce dependency after Ukraine invasion.

Jorgensen’s Political Future? [33:14–33:43]

• Despite the cliché that Brussels is a place you’re “sent to disappear” from domestic politics, Jorgensen’s name is active in Danish discussions about future leadership.
• Referenced in Danish culture:

  “In Brussels, no one can hear you scream” (from TV series Borgen), poking fun at the supposed political obscurity of commissioners—though Jorgensen bucks the trend.

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• "The antidote for Europe is to talk less and to do more because the doing more will help build the European deterrence capacity that is so necessary in a world where, again, might is right."
  —Arantxa Gonzalez Laya [04:21]

• "We are surrounded by what I call the politics of inevitability that makes everyone believe, including ourselves, that the race is over, that we've already lost. No, we have not lost. We will lose if we don't get going."
  —Arantxa Gonzalez Laya [06:18]

• "In an alliance, if it's under duress, then there is no alliance."
  —Arantxa Gonzalez Laya [11:37]

• "Having a roof over your head, a decent house, is a human right and we don’t consider it like that today."
  —Dan Jorgensen [27:25]

• "In a world that sometimes looks very zero sum, [students] are a reminder to me and to my colleagues that the world is not zero sum game…"
  —Arantxa Gonzalez Laya [22:36]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:00] – Europe’s anxiety in the face of Trump’s unpredictable moves
• [03:52] – Arantxa Gonzalez Laya: Europe’s antidote to chaos
• [06:33] – The MERCOSUR challenge and EU’s external strategy
• [09:58] – Trump, Greenland, and NATO’s deterrence in question
• [12:04] – Should Europe “deter” Trump? Building defense integration
• [13:46] – Could a European army take shape?
• [16:39] – Iran protests and Europe’s response
• [20:39] – Teaching geopolitics in today’s world
• [23:48] – Who is Dan Jorgensen? Political background & style
• [25:10] – Jorgensen on why affordable housing matters
• [27:49] – EU’s new housing plan: tools and proposals
• [29:35] – Short-term rentals and real estate pressures
• [31:56] – EU phases out Russian gas imports
• [33:14] – Jorgensen’s future in Danish politics

Tone & Takeaway

Balanced but urgent, the episode stresses that Europe has agencies and choices despite times of uncertainty. The underlying message from both guests: the “antidote” to disruptive global forces—including Trump’s America—is for Europe to act, not just react, deepening integration and strengthening capacity at home.