Trump reopens the tariff fight

Summary

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Brussels Playbook Podcast: “Trump Reopens the Tariff Fight”

Date: July 27, 2026
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich
Guest: Katherine Carlson (POLITICO Senior Finance Reporter)

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Episode Overview

In this lively early week episode, Zoya Sheftalovich and Katherine Carlson break down three top stories currently shaping the Brussels agenda:

1. Iceland’s EU Referendum – Early voting opens as Iceland debates whether to restart EU accession negotiations. The hosts explain the nuanced politics, including geopolitical triggers and the knotty fisheries issue.

2. US-EU Trade Tensions – In reaction to a hefty Google fine under the Digital Markets Act, Donald Trump threatens retaliatory tariffs, putting last year’s Turnberry trade deal at risk.

3. Next-Gen Euro Banknote Designs – The European Central Bank launches public feedback on proposed new euro notes, with the continent’s choice coming down to “Beethoven or birds?”

Listeners are treated to an energetic, conversational analysis sprinkled with inside jokes, accessible explanations, and speculation over the summer vibes (and even potential “fat cat” euro notes).

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Segment Breakdowns & Key Insights

1. Iceland Considers EU Accession Talks

[00:30–07:47]

• Background: Iceland opens early polls on whether to resume negotiations to potentially join the EU — a process paused more than a decade ago.
• Not a Membership Vote:
  “This isn't a vote about rejoining the EU. This is a vote about ‘do we want to restart the talks’… There would be another vote to decide whether we actually want to join.”
  — Katherine Carlson [01:46]
• Why Now?
  • Russian aggression in Ukraine
  • Trump’s expansionist rhetoric toward Europe
  • Iceland reassessing its “security in numbers”
• Influence from Brussels:
  • Some EU politicians (like Renew Europe leader Valérie Hayer) are actively supporting Iceland’s potential accession, to Reykjavik’s annoyance.
    “The Independence Party…basically telling Brussels, hey, stick your nose out.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [04:18]
• Divisions in Iceland:
  • Main opposition and some ruling parties prefer close EU ties without full membership
  • Key sticking points: Fisheries policy (“They want to have their fish and eat it too”) and economic self-sufficiency
• Security Calculations:
  “There is something to be gained potentially from EU membership…in this age of Donald Trump kind of undermining NATO.”
  — Zoya Sheftalovich [05:20]
• The Fishing Issue:
  • Past negotiations were clouded by hardline UK fishing demands—now the UK is out, terms could improve
  • “Last time…the UK was driving a really hard bargain on the fish. UK is gone. Iceland might actually get a better fish deal.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [06:50]
• Memorable Moment:
  • The hosts riff on Iceland’s status: NATO membership without an army (“At the mercy of their allies should something go wrong” [05:20]), and Trump confusing Greenland and Iceland in speeches.

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2. Trump Reignites Tariff Threats over Google Fine

[07:47–10:57]

• New US-EU Trade Tension:
  • EU fines Google €890 million for Digital Markets Act violations (self-preferencing in search, restricting external app offers)
• Trump’s Response:
  “Trump accused the EU of robbing American companies and said that he was going to open US trade investigations and [is] threatening the EU with a substantial tariff.”
  — Zoya Sheftalovich [08:18]
• Aftermath and Risks:
  • Initial hopes that tensions would settle (“a big sigh of relief”) proved brief
  • Trump posts late-night on Truth Social, threatening Section 301 trade investigations
  • US floats a 10% tariff on most EU imports, within the 15% cap set by the 2025 Turnberry deal
• Escalation Concerns:
  • Brussels sees potential investigation as an escalation (“Even if we don't know what is going to come, I think ultimately it will be seen as an escalation in Brussels…” — Zoya [10:12])
  • EU insists its rules are not anti-US:
    “Brussels is obviously saying…these fines…are not about targeting American companies, they're actually just about us enforcing our rules.”
    — Zoya Sheftalovich [09:18]
  • EU has tools to retaliate but little appetite for more drama in holiday season
• Notable Quote:
  • “Washington said that it was going to do a 10% tariff…below a ceiling of 15% that they agreed under that famous Turnberry trade deal last year…The commission was cautiously optimistic…and then the infamous truth social post came inevitably.”
    — Katherine Carlson [08:46]

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3. “Beethoven or Birds?”: Have Your Say on New Euro Banknotes

[10:57–16:16]

• First Redesign Since 2002:
  • The ECB has revealed two main design concepts:
    • Famous Europeans (e.g. Maria Callas, Beethoven, Marie Skłodowska-Curie, da Vinci, Cervantes, Bertha von Suttner)
    • Birds and European rivers (with specific birds such as the kingfisher, wall creeper, bee-eater, white stork, avocet, and northern gannet)
• Public Feedback Invited:
  • “People can give their feedback on the designs. They won’t get to decide because in classic technocratic fashion, the European Central Bank will make the final decision. But you get to decide: Do you prefer Beethoven or birds?”
    — Katherine Carlson [11:22]
• Debate in Newsroom (and Brussels):
  • Zoya is “a bird gal,” but expects historical figures to win out.
  • They joke about meme suggestions: Macron in sunglasses, Karl Marx (“literally on the money”), plastic bottles, or even turtles.
• Recognition Factor:
  • “I do agree that the people are more recognizable…I personally like the birds. But…the birds maybe look a bit more similar.” — Katherine Carlson [14:30]
• Back-of-Note Design:
  • Includes EU institutions—Parliament, Commission—rather than generic bridges like past versions
  • “I quite like that because then I can like point to it and be like, this is where I go all day, mum.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [14:44]
• Audience Involvement:
  • Listeners are invited to share their preferences and alternative candidates for the notes (“Mine was ABBA.” — Zoya [15:11])
• Playful Wrap-Up:
  • Final suggestion for a “fat cat” on the notes (“Literal embodiment of what we stand for in a monetary system…” — Katherine [16:16])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• “It really is. Katie. Let's get straight to it. Icelanders are going to begin voting today…Now…there's been a bunch of geopolitical stuff that's been happening. There has been the war in Ukraine, there's been Donald Trump's expansionist view of European territory, and Iceland has decided, hey, maybe we should reconsider.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [01:16]
• “They want to have their fish and eat it, too, is what they want…” — Zoya Sheftalovich [06:50]
• “Well, it looks like it may have done just that in a surprise to everybody.” — Katherine Carlson, on whether the Google fine would provoke Trump [07:47]
• “They are not about targeting American companies, they're actually just about us enforcing our rules.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [09:18]
• “But…everyone in Brussels is on holiday.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [10:44]
• “You get to decide: Do you prefer Beethoven or birds?” — Katherine Carlson [11:22]
• “Literally on the money…Karl Marx… that would be quite ironic and fun. Okay, I can see the fun in that. But also, I don’t want Marx on my money.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [13:22]
• “The rivers, I believe, are generic. The birds are specific. So there are breeds like the kingfisher, the wall creeper, bee-eaters, a white stork, an avocet and a northern gannet.” — Katherine Carlson [13:45]
• “I quite like that because then I can like point to it and be like, this is where I go all day, mum.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [14:44]
• “I think Joan of Arc would be a good one…but do we know what she looked like?” — Katherine Carlson [15:32]
• “A fat cat? Yeah, Literal embodiment of what we stand for in a monetary system…” — Katherine Carlson [16:16]

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Important Timestamps

| Segment | Details | Start Time | |---------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------|------------| | Iceland EU Talks | Geopolitical context, voting, Brussels involvement | 00:30 | | Iceland’s Security/Fisheries | Security rationale, economic hesitancy, fish issue | 05:20 | | Trump-Google/Trade Tensions | Google fine, Trump response, Turnberry trade deal | 07:47 | | ECB Banknote Redesign Debate | Beethoven vs Birds, memes, audience call | 10:57 |

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Takeaway

This episode offers a punchy, insightful tour through the current EU political climate, weaving together the day’s most important stories: geopolitics of EU enlargement, renewed US-EU trade frictions, and a touch of continental culture war—over cash designs. Zoya and Katherine keep it informative, conversational, and delightfully opinionated—leaving listeners ready for both the headlines and a watercooler debate on whether they’re “bird people” or “historical figure people.”

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Transcript

[Facebook Ad Narrator]

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[Zora Shaktulovich]

Good morning. It's Monday, July 27, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is expectant as Icelanders begin early voting on whether to reopen a path that could eventually lead them into the eu. Also on the pod, Donald Trump is threatening new tariffs after Brussels fined Google, and that's putting the EU US Trade deal back under pressure. Russia and Beethoven or birds? Europeans can have a say on the next generation of euro banknotes. I'm Zora Shaktulovich, and with me today is Politico senior finance reporter Katherine Carlson. Hey, Katie.

[Katherine Carlson]

Hey, Zoya. How's it hanging?

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Low and loose.

[Katherine Carlson]

That's the end of July feeling, I think.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

It really is. Katie. Let's get straight to it. Icelanders are going to begin voting today on whether they should restart negotiations to join the eu. Now, this was the poll process that was abandoned over a decade ago by Iceland. But now, you know, there's been a bunch of geopolitical stuff that's been happening. There has been the war in Ukraine, there's been Donald Trump's expansionist view of European territory, and Iceland has decided, hey, maybe we should reconsider.

[Katherine Carlson]

Yeah, but there's always a question of when is a vote not a vote. Right. So this isn't a vote about rejoining the eu. This is a vote about do we want to restart the talks but potentially rejoining the EU down the line. And support is different for each of those two things. Support's a bit higher among the Iceland, Icelandic people for restarting the talks, but they're a bit more hesitant about whether or not we actually want to join down the line. And they're two separate processes. So the Icelandic idea is we do this whole negotiation, we see what the deal looks like, and then at the end of the day, we have another vote to decide whether we actually want to join.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Yeah. And basically it's sort of like a, you know, let's try before we buy sort of situation. Got a story out today. Our colleague Seb Starchevic has looked into this and has spoken with people who are Kind of leading both the yes and the no camp in Iceland. And it's going to be a series of stuff that he sends out.

[Katherine Carlson]

And why are we talking about this today?

[Zora Shaktulovich]

It's because so early polling has started today, Monday, the actual polling day, the official polling date is August 29, but there is basically a month of people being able to cast a ballot. So this is kind of the pointy end of this debate.

[Katherine Carlson]

Yeah. And it's getting a bit political. Right. We've got some of the key Brussels figures sticking their ore into the process, debatably, and being told to keep out of it a bit by Reykjavik.

[Commercial Break Announcer]

Yeah, that's right.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

So Renew Europe leader Valerie Hayer, she visited Iceland back in June and.

[Katherine Carlson]

Valerie Aye.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Aye, Valerie Hayer. Katie, don't you laugh at my pronunciation.

[Katherine Carlson]

I'm not laughing at Dionysus.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Oh, listener, if only you could see the face of Giannis, our producer, who is. And I don't even speak French.

[Katherine Carlson]

There's a lot of hard names in this one, to be fair.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Oh, it is a hard name day, folks. My apologies to all and sundry who are offended by my terrible pronunciation. I do my best, but I am just an Eastern European gal trying to pronounce French words with mystery letters that you don't say. Look, Valerie Aye visited Iceland in June and she said at the time that the EU should be moving heaven and earth to bring the country into the bloc. And her argument is basically. Well, firstly, that Iceland is already, basically, insofar as you can be, when you're not actually a member of the eu, very, very close to EU membership, because they're part of the European Economic Area, they're part of the Schengen Zone, very close on their legislation. And the other kind of thing that maybe she's not saying out loud is Iceland is a very wealthy country and the EU would love it if, along with some of the less wealthy countries that are joining or want to join the bloc in the next decade or so, there might be a few with deeper pockets, and Iceland is one of those deeper pocket countries. So that is kind of the pitch. They're really trying to pull out all the stops in on the EU level to try to convince Iceland to get on board. But the Independence Party, which is Iceland's largest opposition party and which is opposed to EU membership, it's basically telling Brussels, hey, stick your nose out.

[Katherine Carlson]

Yeah. So also, I mean, it's a question of what type of association do you want to have? Right. Like, if so much of this is being motivated now by geopolitics the whole Greenland thing. Iceland's already a member of NATO. So like, the debate is, does it actually need the full. The full hog and to go euro? So anyway, but back to our colleague, Seb Starchevich has a story today, an interview with the opposition party leader Guthrun Hafstein dotted, who said that the decision has to be left to Icelanders. They want to keep foreign influence out. She's talking about the fact that Iceland's already in NATO. It already has access to the EU single market. So she wants Iceland to stay a key, consistent partner with the eu, but not to become a member. And the governing coalition in Iceland is also split. So there's two parties that support membership and one that's against.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

It is a very interesting and a hot debate in Iceland. And I think precisely because Iceland is quite wealthy, it doesn't see the same level of economic benefit that's likely to come as a result of EU membership. The flip side of it is when I've spoken with people in Iceland and Reykjavik who are on either side of this debate, you know, there is definitely an acknowledgement that in this age of Donald Trump kind of undermining NATO at every step of the way, there is something to be gained potentially from EU membership from the perspective of security and safety and numbers, because it's not quite so given as it maybe was before, the extent to which you might be protected. And you've got to remember, it's not like Iceland has an army or, you know, a big old defense industry. Like, they are kind of at the mercy of their allies should something go wrong.

[Katherine Carlson]

Yeah, I mean, they are in NATO and they have traditionally said that they don't feel like a lot of Trump's threats against Greenland apply to them also. But remember, we've also seen Trump literally mixing up Greenland and Iceland in speeches.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

So easy mistake to make. I see Green. It's the same old thing.

[Katherine Carlson]

Yeah. It feels like a different moment from these Icelanders who are just saying, well, what does the EU bring me? You're just going to take my money and take my fish?

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Oh, yes, Fishy business is big business in Iceland. And this was the thing that kind of tanked the negotiations last time because basically the EU is notoriously quite tough when it comes to the fishing industry. There are various rules around the catch. And you've got to. Look, I am no agriculture and fisheries reporter, but it is complex and it is political.

[Katherine Carlson]

And Iceland has a lot of fish.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

They want to have their fish and eat it, too, is what they want. Want. But listen, the fish is a big deal. And last time, actually, the interesting thing is that one of the reasons why Iceland abandoned these talks, why it ended up just giving up on this thing, is because the UK was in the EU and was driving a really hard bargain on the fish. UK is gone. Iceland might actually get a better fish deal. So it could be that this time around, the deal does look more attractive, more delicious.

[Katherine Carlson]

Proficiential treatment. Is that bad? Is that too bad?

[Zora Shaktulovich]

No, that's too good. That is too bloody good. But in any case, it's all kicking off now. Voting opens today. We're going to get the final and big day of voting on 29 August. Katie, Last week we were Talking about the EU's big fine for Google for breaching the Digital Markets act and we said that it might provoke Donald Trump. Well, it looks like it may have

[Katherine Carlson]

done just that in a surprise to everybody.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Yeah, who would have seen a truth

[Katherine Carlson]

post coming from late night truth social post. They're so unpredictable. They're so unfamiliar from Trump these days.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Yes, exactly. So Google got fined 890 million euro on Thursday for breaching the DMA. This was two breaches that the EU found it had done. It was for favoring its own services in search over its competitors and also restricting app developers from allowing users to get cheaper offers outside of the Google Play store. After this big fine came through, at first there was a big sigh of relief. You know, I was reporting on this, I was talking to people in town, everyone was very cautiously like, oh, maybe Trump is going to hold fire on this one. No, it just took a little while. But a day after that, Trump accused the EU of robbing American companies and said that he was going to open U.S. trade investigations and threatening the EU with a substantial tariff. So now we're waiting to see whether something on that happens this week.

[Katherine Carlson]

And yeah, it's important to note that we had a brief peaceful period on Friday where Brussels kind of thought it had got away with it. Washington said that it was going to do a 10% tariff on most EU imports, which, you know, it's tough, but it's also below a ceiling of 15% that they agreed under that famous Turnberry trade deal last year. The commission was cautiously optimistic about it. And then the infamous truth social post came inevitably.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

And actually, by the way, Katie, did you know that the Turnberry deal turns one today?

[Katherine Carlson]

I do, because I wasn't on the golf course myself, but I was writing a newsletter about it.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Classic political shenanigans. Well, in any case, Brussels is obviously saying, look, this fine, or these fines rather, they are not about targeting American companies, they're actually just about us enforcing our rules.

[Katherine Carlson]

And they've done that against Chinese companies too, to be fair.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Indeed. And there has been a flurry of announcements coming out of the Berlamont over the past kind of few weeks, and they've been hitting TikTok, they've been hitting all sorts of companies as well, as you say, you know. But obviously that is not what has made the headlines on Trump's Truth Social feed.

[Katherine Carlson]

Yeah. So now what the US is saying is that they're going to have a Section 301 investigation. So it's a process for investigating unfair trade practices. It can lead to tariffs or some other kind of retaliation. It's a kind of long process. They'll gather some evidence first and then they'll come up with their. They'll have hearings as well. So the question for this week is about whether they formally launched that investigation or whether it was an empty threat from Trump.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Yeah, but, you know, this is going to be. Even if they just launch it, even if we don't know what is going to come, I think ultimately it will be seen as an escalation in Brussels because any sort of extra blanket tariff would potentially undermine the Turnberry deal, which set that ceiling for 15% tariffs. And so that was quite lopsided. But Brussels did say at the time and repeatedly has said since then, we have trade tools at our disposal that we can utilize if need be, if you push us further. So this might escalate things further again. That being said, everyone in Brussels is on holiday, so.

[Katherine Carlson]

So they're not here for the emergency Sunday meetings of diplomats to figure out our response to this great catastrophe.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Katie, let's talk cash money, baby.

[Katherine Carlson]

We finally get to talk about Astoria. Actually, Ro, I'm so excited.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

I'm very excited, too. This was the talk of the newsroom in Brussels. We were all frantically looking. Oh, we should rewind a little.

[Commercial Break Announcer]

Sorry.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

I'm getting ahead of myself because of how exciting it is. But the European Central bank has unveiled the shortlisted designs for the big revamp of Euronotes, the first one since they actually started printing them in 2002.

[Katherine Carlson]

Exactly. And people can give their feedback on the designs. They won't get to decide because in classic technocratic fashion, the European Central bank will make the final decision. But you get to decide. Do you prefer Beethoven or birds?

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Well, you know, it was such a hot debate. There are two camps and they are very firmly entrenched.

[Katherine Carlson]

I Have heard everything to do with this since I wrote the story on Friday. What's your take?

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Okay, my take is I love the birds. I'm a bird gal. Katie. Flying high.

[Katherine Carlson]

Okay. I personally also love the birds, but I do think that the historical figures are going to clinch it. So we should give some context here. The two design choices, and there's different variations of these, but basically the two camps are those famous historical Europeans, might you say?

[Zora Shaktulovich]

The two flocks.

[Katherine Carlson]

The two flocks. The I don't have a bird pun to come back with. Tragic. I've literally got.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

You should have a squawk about it.

[Katherine Carlson]

Having written the story on Friday already, I should have been an early bird to this process. I should have sorted myself out. Okay, two flocks. Two flocks. Flock number one, famous Europeans. Maria Callas, the Greek American opera singer. Beethoven.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Ludwig van of the Ode to Joy, who wrote the Banu Anthem. Absolutely.

[Katherine Carlson]

Bang bang on. Yep. Floor filler if there ever was one.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Yeah, I was rocking out to it on the way here this morning.

[Katherine Carlson]

Marie Curie.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Wait, are you leaving?

[Katherine Carlson]

You're the Eastern European, you say?

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Dionis should say it as his countrywoman. Skadowska Squadowska. Mari Squadowska Curie. See, I can do that.

[Katherine Carlson]

I just can't do a Leonardo da Vinci.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Ah, Leonardo da Vinci.

[Katherine Carlson]

Famous polymath. Can't put him in a box. Miguel de Cevantes, the famous author. Yes.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

With Don Quixote and his windmills.

[Katherine Carlson]

And the Austrian pacifist, Bertha von Suttner.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Aha. Listen, I wouldn't have chosen those five.

[Katherine Carlson]

Well, there have been tons of memes with people proposing their rival suggestions. I saw some good ones. Macron, in the sunglasses from Davos was one Karl Marx. Just imagine the contrast. Karl Marx, European Central bank, literally on the money.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

That would be quite ironic and fun. Okay, I can see the fun in that. But also, I don't want Marx on my money.

[Katherine Carlson]

There was also suggested the plastic water bottle with the cap attached.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Yes.

[Katherine Carlson]

Some turtles with plastic straws in the ocean.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Yes, that makes sense. Yes, yes, yes. Wait. Speaking of turtles and straws and the ocean, that's the second cap.

[Katherine Carlson]

The rival design. Yes. Is rivers and birds.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

My pick.

[Katherine Carlson]

The rivers, I believe, are generic. The birds are specific. So there are breeds like the kingfisher, the wall creeper, bee eaters, a white stork, an avocet and a northern gannet.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

See, I can get behind the birds. I fly high with the birds.

[Katherine Carlson]

A northern gannet. That's me on my day off.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Listen, I've said That I like the birds to people and they do not like that. They're like, if we can't have people, historical figures, then get out of here.

[Katherine Carlson]

So the idea is it's like people that can unite Europe across borders. They're prominent enough that they had a big profile outside of Europe and that they're world famous and that they symbolize Europe rather than just the countries they specifically, specifically come from.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Counterpoint. White stalks, kingfishers.

[Katherine Carlson]

I do agree that the people are more recognizable. I personally like the birds. But I do get that the birds maybe look a bit more similar. You might not be able to identify them as much as like, oh, I want that note that's got the Greek lady on. Or the big. With the. The man with the big collar.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

But actually we should talk about the reverse because I quite like the reverse, which includes the EU buildings. Like, there's a European Parliament, a European Commission. I quite like that because then I can like point to it and be like, this is where I go all day, mum. That would be nice.

[Katherine Carlson]

It's nice that they can be specific about it. Because if you remember, for these versions of the banknotes, they had to do like generic imaginary bridges and public spaces because they couldn't be said to prefer any specific bridge in any one country.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Yeah, that was pretty gross. That was like AI banknotes before AI banknotes were a thing. No, I'm loving it. Look, I would love to hear from our audience. Are you a bird person or are you a human person? Or would you pick something else entirely? Maybe you've got some particular person who's been left off and you reckon needs to be on that list. Mine was abba.

[Katherine Carlson]

I think Joan of Arc would be a good one. But do we know what she looked like? Does she have a recognisable face?

[Zora Shaktulovich]

No.

[Katherine Carlson]

She was also against the English.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

I also think she's already a saint. She doesn't need a banknote.

[Katherine Carlson]

Fair.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Yeah. Okay, folks, that's it from us today. Leave us a message, send us a voice note on WhatsApp. The link is in the show notes. And please do rate us and review us. You know the summer is coming. You could just go back over the entire catalog of Brussels Playbook podcast and just listen back over it, leave some

[Katherine Carlson]

comments, replay the hits.

[Zora Shaktulovich]

Oh, yeah, the greatest hits. I think they should put a fat cat on the notes.

[Katherine Carlson]

A fat cat? Yeah, Literal embodiment of what we stand for in a monetary system that.

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