Tyrants are forever: Has Europe missed its moment?

Summary

EU Confidential — Episode Summary

Podcast: EU Confidential (by POLITICO Europe)
Title: Tyrants are forever: Has Europe missed its moment?
Date: September 5, 2025
Host: Sarah Wheaton
Panelists: Nick Vinokur (Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent), Clea Kolkutt (Senior Correspondent, France), Paul Dallison (Editor/Comedian)

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Overview: Main Theme

This episode delves into Europe's fraught political and diplomatic moment as competing autocrats reshape the world order and the EU faces leadership crises at home. The team dissects political chaos in France, disunity over Ukraine, and the struggles of EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen ahead of her make-or-break State of the European Union speech. The discussion pulls back the curtain on a “Brussels bubble” in flux, asks whether Europe missed its chance for global influence, and previews the tumultuous autumn ahead.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Brussels “Ren-trée” and Metaphors for European Upheaval

• The return from summer break coincides with literal and metaphorical reconstruction in Brussels.
• Metaphor: “[The] world order is being redone, some old foundations cracking,” with China’s Xi and Russia’s Putin discussing biotech longevity as “autocratic chit-chat” ([01:00-01:50]).
• Anticipation for von der Leyen’s annual State of the EU address in Strasbourg, expected to argue for unity and continued European relevance.

Notable Quote:

“It feels like the entire European quarter is a construction site again, just in time for what we call the Ron Treasure. ... There’s a cacophonous metaphor in those jackhammers. The world order is being redone, some old foundations cracking..."
—Sarah Wheaton [00:56]

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2. French Government Crisis: Another Collapse Looms

• France’s government teeters on the brink; PM Francois Beru calls a confidence vote he’s expected to lose—France’s third such collapse in a year ([06:17]).
• The crisis is over a proposed austerity budget: €44 billion in cuts, including cutting bank holidays, drawing massive opposition and unrest.
• The far-right National Rally (Le Pen, Bardella) refuses to support Beru or his budget, publicly calling for new elections and, some say, President Macron’s resignation ([08:28]).

Panel Analysis:

• Macron’s options are limited: find a new PM, face likely snap elections, or (increasingly whispered) resign—though he rejects this.
• The parliamentary deadlock looks set to endure, with no easy solution ([11:32]).

Notable Quotes:

"In France, cutting bank holidays... you could imagine the uproar that this has caused."
—Clea Kolkutt [07:02]

"We’re starting to run out of options... there is, you know, increasingly talks about maybe Macron should resign."
—Clea Kolkutt [12:40]

“He’s like the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. Keeps losing limbs, but insisting that everything's okay.”
—Paul Dallison [14:07]

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3. Impact in Brussels: France's Diminished EU Influence

• France, traditionally a major EU power, is now perceived as a destabilized “problem child.” Its economic malaise is seen as symptomatic for the whole bloc ([12:53]).
• Loss of leverage: The Commission is proceeding with the Mercosur trade deal over French objections.
• Mood in Brussels is a mix of watchfulness and resignation.

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4. Ukraine, Russia, and the US: Groundhog Day Diplomacy

• Hopes for an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine have repeatedly faltered. “Trump’s two week deadline for a Putin-Zelensky meeting has come and gone”—with no progress, no consequences ([15:16]).
• EU foreign ministers promise more Russian sanctions, but lack US follow-through.
• Controversy: The US sees European leaders as “the bottleneck to peace,” urging Ukraine not to make territorial concessions, but the panel notes any such demand is unacceptable and unworkable ([16:59]).

Notable Quote:

“From the EU perspective, there’s a little bit of disillusionment setting in that the US is going to put its weight to bear against Russia… it’s Groundhog Day all over again.”
—Nick Vinokur [15:16]

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5. Security Guarantees for Ukraine: Theory vs. Reality

• Discussions for a US/EU security guarantee for Ukraine are ongoing—but lack substance or consensus.
• Ursula von der Leyen hints at scenarios involving EU training missions in Ukraine, but German officials quickly rule out any military presence ([18:05]).
• Macron still raises the idea of French troop involvement, but domestic troubles limit his capital. These proposals remain largely hypothetical, dependent on any potential peace deal.

“This kind of reminds you of a Vietnam scenario where US started by sending in trainers… But there hasn’t been a whole lot of detail."
—Nick Vinokur [18:05]

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6. Von der Leyen’s State of the EU Speech: Dilemma and Division

• Set for next Wednesday, the speech marks a year since the “Draghi Report,” which warned of Europe’s “slow agony” if reforms were not enacted ([22:33]).
• The Commission made much of Draghi’s recommendations but implemented nearly nothing—“a summer of humiliation” after a weak trade deal with Trump and lost parliamentary confidence ([23:15]).
• Von der Leyen faces a combative parliament, with far-left and far-right critics emboldened by recent censure votes ([24:15-24:44]).
• She is accused of centralizing power and alienating both the European Council President and national leaders like Macron.

Notable Quotes:

"Politically speaking in the Parliament, they have tasted blood."
—Nick Vinokur [23:38]

"She's going to have to tiptoe around the Trump situation throughout the whole speech."
—Paul Dallison [30:51]

• Panelists expect much talk of “competitiveness,” “growth and jobs,” “courage,” and “sustainability”—but little substance ([31:32]).

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7. Protests, Parliamentary Drama, and Political Theater

• France faces mass protests on the very day of the State of the EU address (September 10th).
• The Parliament itself may see visible heckling, boycott, and theatrical antics, e.g., Diana Soshuaka ("remember her turning up in the Parliament wearing a dog muzzle") ([29:19-29:53]).

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8. Looking Ahead: Autumn Flashpoints

• The EU faces a dicey autumn as more elections approach:
  • France: race against time to form a government and pass a budget ([33:25]).
  • Czech Republic: possible return of populist Andrej Babiš ([34:24]).
  • Netherlands: could move toward a centrist coalition ([34:47]).
  • Israel/Palestine: countries like Belgium recognize a Palestinian state, further dividing Europe ([32:04-33:22]).
• EU remains paralyzed on major foreign policy questions, unable to take unified action ([33:01]).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Autocratic Metaphor:
“They were just caught on a hot mic in Beijing musing about living to 150 via biotech and organ transplants. Some autocratic chit chat that neatly matches their appetites for refashioning the rules.”
—Sarah Wheaton [00:56]

French Crisis, Political Farce:
“We’re so used to France being a major power and now it feels like they're like Italy or Romania where there's a new prime minister every week…”
—Paul Dallison [14:07]

Von der Leyen’s Dilemma:
“I think she's going to have a difficult task. And also politically speaking in the Parliament, they have tasted blood… A more vulnerable, exposed leader than she was two years ago, certainly.”
—Nick Vinokur [23:38]

Parliamentary Antics:
"Diana Soshuaka… you might remember her turning up in the Parliament wearing a dog muzzle."
—Paul Dallison [29:53]

Soundtrack to a Decline:
"He's like the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. Keeps losing limbs, but insisting that everything's okay."
—Paul Dallison [14:07]

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Key Timestamps

• 00:56-02:33 — Metaphor: Construction in Brussels & autocratic longevity
• 06:17-11:10 — French government’s impending collapse; austerity uproar, National Rally tactics
• 12:53-14:07 — France’s loss of EU sway; Brussels’ reaction
• 15:16-18:05 — Ukraine: Broken peace process, endless deadlines, U.S./EU divides
• 18:05-20:36 — Security guarantees for Ukraine (theory vs. reality)
• 22:33-23:38 — The Draghi Report and Europe’s “slow agony”; von der Leyen’s unenviable position
• 24:15-27:28 — State of the EU speech: expected content, political attacks, leadership style, internal EU rifts
• 29:19-31:56 — Who will heckle? Spectacle and substance of the von der Leyen speech
• 32:04-34:47 — Major flashpoints this autumn: Israel-Palestine, French and Czech elections, EU gridlock

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Tone & Language

The panel maintains POLITICO’s brisk, accessible, and slightly sardonic style, mixing sharp political analysis with a self-aware wit (“the Black Knight in Monty Python”, “Groundhog Day diplomacy”). There is a strong focus on personalities, parliamentary spectacle, and the contrast between high-stakes geopolitics and daily European bureaucracy.

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Conclusion

EU Confidential’s panel portrays a Europe at a crossroads: battered by domestic chaos, external threats, and institutional inertia. With France in disarray and the EU’s leadership on the defensive (but not yet “dead”), the autumn promises drama—from von der Leyen’s high-wire act in Strasbourg to cliff-edge French budget talks and unpredictable elections across the continent. For listeners seeking to understand Europe’s moment of peril and possibility, this episode offers anecdotes, headlines, and a healthy dose of gallows humor.

Transcript

[Sarah Wheaton]

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[Paul Dallison]

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[Nick Vinokur]

Down on my last dollar and then I started saving because the bank said fiscal restraint is what you're craving so I put my earnings in a high yield account let the savings compound and the interest mount I'm optimizing cash flow putting debt in check now time is.

[Sarah Wheaton]

My praying and now the pain in.

[Nick Vinokur]

The neck and we've got a little cash to rebuild the old deck. Boring money moves make kind of lame songs but they sound pretty sweet to your wallet.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Brilliantly boring since 1865. That is the sound of the Schumann Roundabout being taken apart. Exactly as our producer Dianis caught it on tape this week, it feels like the entire European quarter is a construction site again, just in time for what we call the Ron Treasure. As the bubble fills up again and politics snap back to life, there's a cacophonous metaphor in those jackhammers. The world order is being redone, some old foundations cracking, and some of the would be architects of that new order. China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin were just caught on a hot mic in Beijing musing about living to 150 via biotech and organ transplants. Some autocratic chit chat that neatly matches their appetites for refashioning the rules. Meanwhile, just above Schumann Roundabout, my sources in the Berlaymont tell me they're just trying to survive. Figuratively, of course. Through next week. That's when Commission President Ursula von der Leyen heads to Strasbourg for her yearly State of the European Union speech. What will she say? No doubt she'll argue that Europe still matters in a shifting world and that if it stays united, it can matter even more. Just as she put it the last time she gave this speech, it is.

[Clea Kolkutt]

Time for Europe to once again think big and write our own destiny. This is Europe's moment to answer the call of history. Long live Europe.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Thank you. More recent history hasn't been reassuring. A not so great trade deal with Donald Trump, inaction on Gaza and fading leverage over securing peace in Ukraine all illustrate the EU's disunited disarray. With the post war order crumbling, has Europe missed its moment? Sarah Wheaton I'm Sarah Wheaton, host of EU Confidential. This week we've got a panel of our in house Experts to cut through the noise not only here in Brussels, but also in Paris xi. And Putin might want to live forever, but for Prime Minister Francois Beru, it's a chronicle of a death foretold. We are all but certain that his government is going to fall on Monday thanks to the political impossibility of passing a budget. And President Emmanuel Macron, he's on life support. Joining us over zoom is our senior correspondent in France, Clea Kolkutt. And here with me in the studio are chief foreign affairs correspondent Nick Vinokur, and for a touch of mischief, our editor and resident comedian, Paul Dallison. I don't know about you, but I feel like the Brussels reentree this year is louder and more, more chaotic than usual. Schumann is a construction zone and so is the area right around Politico. I mean, thank God we have these double glazed windows, but it's sometimes we can even feel it shaking in the podcast studio. Nick, you know, how are you feeling? Is the Brussels bubble already kind of up and running or has your story been gentler?

[Nick Vinokur]

I've been here back a week. It feels like it's been several months already. I think part of the impression is that there was only, only a small kind of summer break. The action continued until late with the EU US Trade deal. A bit of downtime and then back kind of dealing with big geopolitical things. But in terms of bubble per se, it hasn't quite started. The official re is next Wednesday and we're going to see more, more buzz and. But it does feel as if it kind of never died down.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Well, indeed. We're going to talk about the event that marks that rental next week in just a second. But first, Paul, I want to ask you, you know, you, you are a co creator of show, an improv comedy show that EU Confidential helped, helped launch. Are you optimistic that the Renter will give you enough material?

[Paul Dallison]

Very optimistic, yes. There's always lots of material, but I think especially at this time of year, what I like about this time of year is you get seismic world events clashing with a return to work and the ordinariness of daily life. You know, Trump shakes up the whole world. But you've got to go back and there's a new hot desking policy in your office or something like that. So you're more focused on that than the kind of the seismic world event that's taking place around you. So I think the only problem is so many of the world events are so quite dark at the moment that providing enough Light in the comedy is one of the more difficult parts, but in terms of amount of material, there'll be loads.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Okay, good. Well, we definitely need that lightness and we'll be looking to you a bit for that during this discussion. But first, Claire, we mentioned the chaos in Brussels, but I mean, it kind of pales in comparison to Paris. As soon as next Monday, the French government could fall and that would be the third one to collapse in a year.

[Clea Kolkutt]

Yeah, no, we've had a pretty shock rentree here in Paris. I mean, you can imagine the size and eye rolls of all the political journalists when our Prime Minister Francois Beru announced that he was going to call a vote of confidence in his government for next Monday. And in all likelihood he's going to lose that vote of confidence over the budget with, you know, all the opposition or a good chunk of the opposition parties ganging up against him. And so we're entering a big period of, of uncertainty in, in the coming weeks and possibly months here in Paris.

[Sarah Wheaton]

All right, so you said people are this worked up over the budget, what's going on there?

[Clea Kolkutt]

Yes. So Francois Beruult came back from his non holiday in Paris and shocked everyone with this surprise decision to put his government in the balance and challenge all the opposition parties to back not the actual budget, but the need to get a slimmed down budget through Parliament. Basically what he's asking opposition parties is to sign up to his idea of a budget and you know, then the, the details will be negotiated. But this budget is one that includes 44 billion euros of cuts. So it's high on austerity with measures that include, for instance, cutting two bank holidays and also a government freeze. Absolutely. In France, cutting bank holidays. I mean, you could imagine the uproar that this has caused. And so obviously none of this is working. And so everybody is already talking about what comes after the fall of Francois Berun. There's a big question mark over what happens next.

[Sarah Wheaton]

One of the questions was whether National Rally, the far right party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella would support him. I mean, there was sort of some thinking that maybe they would help him squeeze week by.

[Clea Kolkutt]

Yeah, there were rumors that maybe the National Rally over the summer would have been content to let Francois Beru basically do the dirty work and get this budget through which would, you know, and not involve them in the nastiness of trying to cut here and there spending that would be unpopular. However, that was a gross miscalculation because the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen came out very strongly immediately after he announced this vote of confidence, saying there's no way they are voting for this budget. There's no way they're entering, you know, any sort of discussion. Basically, we need new elections. You know, Beru should go, even President Macron should go. So this was a very tough response. So big miscalculation from Beirut there.

[Sarah Wheaton]

And let's stick with National Rally. Our colleague Marion Soleti wrote about the Bardella Le Pen power dynamic, because of course, Le Pen can't run for president as things stand right now. So how are they kind of squaring all this?

[Clea Kolkutt]

Yeah, exactly. Because Marine Le Pen got sentenced in an embezzlement trial. So she's barred from running for public office for five years, which has completely thrown a spanner in the, you know, the wheels and the cogs of the national rallies planning ahead of the presidential election. Now everybody's trying to second guess what the National Rally is doing. And the idea is that this is a problem for Marine Le Pen, because if Macron calls a snap election, or least likely scenario, if Macron stands down, she can't run for Parliament and she can't run in the presidential election. So everybody's been speculating that basically she doesn't want anything to budge because it would put Jordan Bardella, the plan B of the National Rally, in the driving seat. Now, obviously, this sort of speculation is sort of turned on its head because the National Rally has come out so strongly in favor of snap election. So everybody's sort of wondering whether they're bluffing, if this double bluff. In any case, for the moment, it appears that, you know, they're not playing ball, that that's not happening. One analysis that was in Marion's piece is that possibly Marine Le Pen has accepted the. That she can't become president. Maybe she's eyeing to become prime minister under Bardella, for which she would need to actually win the election or the presidential election. That's one theory that's going around, but everything at the moment is very fluid.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Okay, so we might see indeed, Le Pen as a powerful, unelected bureaucrat.

[Clea Kolkutt]

She could be Putin in Medvedev. I'm not sure that's exactly the comparison, but, you know, that kind of relationship.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah. So if Beirut loses, which is widely expected, what are some of the plausible outcomes?

[Clea Kolkutt]

Well, that's a tricky question. Yeah. Who knows? Possibly President Macron is now going to be looking for his fifth prime minister in less than two years. We're starting to run out of options. So, yeah, the current talk is that he'll look for somebody else who might succeed where Francois Beruult has failed. But it's difficult to see how with the same parliament, you can get a different result. So another option that's being discussed is maybe that some point, Macron might appoint a new pm, he might fail or she might fail, and then he'll go to snap elections. But there again, polls show that a new majority wouldn't emerge in parliament. And so therefore you're still stuck with a gridlocked parliament that disagrees on fundamental things like austerity or not tax increases or budget cuts. So there is, you know, increasingly talks about maybe Macron should resign. Obviously this is something that he's fighting tooth and nail against. I mean, he completely excluded it. I spoke to one former adviser who said there's no way he'd ever agree to that because basically he'd go down in history as the President who resigned.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah. And Nick, how is this playing here in Brussels? You know, are people paying attention to this flare up in Paris and if this government collapses, does it change France's standing here in Europe?

[Nick Vinokur]

Yeah, I think people are watching. This is the big show of the entree, the big European show. There's always a sick man, there's always a problem child in Europe. It's France big time nowadays, and it's kind of concentrating some of the economic angst basically that's over the EU right now. You know, the whole bloc's economy is not doing great, but France is really looking like the one that's really in trouble. Could have be trouble in the markets and the bond markets as well. On, on French debt. I would say this is coming to a head, but it's not brand new. I mean, we saw Macron really lose his grip on power after the European Parliament election and the result of that was France losing a lot of its foothold here in Brussels. And, you know, you can argue the point, but France probably has lost a lot of its influence here in Brussels. And that shines through in a lot of different ways, notably with the Commission just barreling ahead with this Mercosur trade deal that France has said, you know, over my dead body, I will not allow that to happen.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Now there's a dead body.

[Nick Vinokur]

There you go.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Paul, we're looking to you to lighten things up a bit now, as we warned. You know, are your sketches on French politics just replacing Italy with France as far as governments coming and going or Greek crisis style budget battles?

[Paul Dallison]

Yeah, I think so. We're so used to France being a major power and now it feels like they're like Italy or Romania where there's a new prime minister every week. Like it's sort of given out when they're like a lottery. And I had a reader email me this week, actually to say that when Macron goes, we'll lose a majestic source of inspiration were his words. And it does feel like he's sort of vainly carrying on, but still looking more and more tired as time goes past and just calling snap elections. He's like the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. Keeps losing limbs, but insisting that everything's okay.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Not dead yet.

[Paul Dallison]

Not dead yet, but almost okay.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Well, I'm glad we had that little comedic interlude because we're going to go back into heavy stuff again. So the thing that, that was really keeping us busy over the normal slow period was this diplomatic bonanza. After all these big meetings in Alaska and in Washington, D.C. there were hopes that there might be an end to the violence between Russia and Ukraine. But instead, Trump's two week deadline for a Putin Zelensky meeting has come and gone. Nick, what's the vibe in this department?

[Nick Vinokur]

I mean, this is really the worst possible version of Groundhog Day, right? The US President sets a deadline. He seems to really like the two week thing, and it kind of comes and goes without any real consequences. And this time the sort of challenge was Putin was supposed to meet directly with Zelensky. I mean, needless to say, that's not happening. Putin's been at this Asian summit and Zelensky's over here. No, I think there was some genuine hope over the summer that the Alaska summit was going to bring a change. Trump had said that he wanted the ceasefire and there'd be consequences for Putin if it didn't happen. And the Alaska summit came and went and Trump did not impose any consequences. And here we are at the expiration of another two week deadline and it's Groundhog Day all over again. Because now, you know, we'll probably get another deadline sometime to the future and no, no consequences for, for Putin. So I think from the EU perspective, there's a little bit of disillusionment setting in that the US Is going to put its weight to bear against Russia. You know, there was this gathering of foreign ministers last weekend in Copenhagen. That was the message from a lot of the foreign ministers there. We're going to do a new round of sanctions, we're considering tariffs against Russia, we're looking at frozen assets, but we need the US to come in and help us apply that Pressure, and I think it's increasingly falling on deaf ears.

[Sarah Wheaton]

There was an interesting report out from the US News outlet Axios that said some in the Trump White House actually see European leaders as the bottleneck to peace, that they're egging Zelensky on with unrealistic expectations that he won't have to give up any territory. What do you make of that one? Is there anything to that?

[Nick Vinokur]

Well, I'm not surprised. There are pro Russian hawks in the Trump White House. I mean, now let's get into what do we mean by territorial concessions? That would mean Ukraine giving up land that it has not lost, that it's in control of right now. So that demand, on the face of it, is unacceptable, and it's not an unreasonable thing to say, well, Ukraine shouldn't cede any demand that it hasn't lost through war. To the contrary, it might seem unreasonable to ask that. And I think what the Europeans are more or less saying now is we can freeze the front line, we can not have a legal recognition of the occupied territories, but we can have a de facto situation where we recognize who's on what side, and that's what Putin is unwilling to accept. So you can decide who's being the unreasonable party here.

[Sarah Wheaton]

And so if we do end up with any sort of peace deal or frozen situation, as you mentioned, there is hope for US Security guarantee. And the EU is also thinking of how it would contribute. We heard Ursula von der Leyen talking a bit about that this week. What's on the table?

[Nick Vinokur]

Yeah, so this is the discussion that's been going on for months and months. Trump's demand being, well, if the west needs to secure Ukraine and back it up, we want European troops and on American troops there. And that's been discussed for months and months. The one new thing I saw was that the EU was going to be training troops in Ukraine. And this kind of reminds you of, you know, kind of a Vietnam scenario where us started by sending in trainers and, and things like that. So the trainers can kind of encompass a lot of things, but there hasn't been a whole lot of detail where they would be. Von der Leyen said now we're studying precise scenarios. But she was immediately batted back by the German defense minister, who said, under no circumstances will the EU play some kind of military role in Ukraine. So even as these discussions inch forward, they remain hypothetical because it's part of a package deal. Ultimately, Putin will have to sign it. And he so far said no Western troops in Ukraine. So the preparations are continuing, but it's a big hypothetical for now.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Claya, back over to you. Is Macron still talking about French troops in Ukraine or has domestic turbulence kind of cooled that down?

[Clea Kolkutt]

No, he's still talking about French troops in Ukraine and he held this week a summit of the coalition of the willing. So the sort of loose group of countries that back security guarantees in some shape or form for Ukraine. You know, Zelenskyy was in Paris with other figures. And yes, this is something that Macron has put a lot of personal capital into. And so he doesn't want to see that idea die away. Obviously, every time he's asked about it, you know, he's hedging it. This is always in case of a peace deal. You know, we're not sending French troops into fight against the Russians. You know, this is always framed in a particular. But obviously, as Nick was saying, this is a debate that keeps coming and going, and it keeps coming and going depending on what the mood is around a possible peace deal with Putin. When the mood is up, then, you know, the Europeans and even maybe the Americans start talking about possible security guarantees for Ukraine in the case of a peace deal. When those hopes sort of fade away, then this whole conversation becomes quite theoretical, even though what, you know, Europeans and the French say is that preparation, actual planning is going ahead.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Okay, we need to take a quick break, but right after that we'll shift our focus to Ursula Fonder Lyon and her big speech next week. Stay with us.

[Nick Vinokur]

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Payment of $45 for three month plan. $15 per month equivalent required. New customer offer first three months only, then full price plan, options available, taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com Kalea Indeed, all this stuff has been going on in the background. We haven't really gotten that much of a break. But as Nick mentioned at the beginning of the discussion, the official entree from vacation starts next Wednesday with Ursula von der Leyen's big set piece, the State of the EU speech. And the other thing about it is that it falls on kind of the one year anniversary of the Draghi Report. Now the main thing I remember from that is that this former Italian prime minister and central banker warned that Europe would face a slow agony if it didn't take action to boost its economy. Nick, remind us briefly what Mario Draghi wanted the EU to do. And, well, what is the state of our agony at this point?

[Nick Vinokur]

Yeah, I mean, remember that, right. That was sort of the big phrase, slow agony. Everybody was talking about the Draghi Report. It was this kind of seminal roadmap for what the EU has to do to get economically stronger. And von der Leyen tasked him with doing this, let's not forget that, and made a big deal out of it. Now, the problem is he delivered this report, it had all kinds of recommendations, but then the EU was supposed to enact this and on that score they've completely fallen down. I don't think anything of the Draghi report has so far been enacted. There's one little savings and investment plan, but it's just partial. And the thing is, Draghi won't go away. He keeps on giving speeches, he's got this big aura and he keeps reminding and kind of guilting everyone about how they're not doing enough to integrate the EU and boost its economy. So I think the State of the Union is going to be a really interesting, difficult, awkward exercise for Ursula von der Leyen because she's coming off the summer of humiliation with Donald Trump with the trade deal and the 5% NATO spending he forced on them a year into the Draghi report, what have we done? Nothing on that. And we've done things on defense. So I think she's going to have a difficult task. And also politically speaking in the Parliament, they have tasted blood. They already did a motion censure motion and forced her to come in. And there are others on the way. And these parliamentarians are very riled up and we might see a lot of heckling, we might see a lot of people emboldened to go after her in her second term, much like Macron in his second term. A more vulnerable, exposed leader than she was two years ago, certainly.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah, indeed. I mean, we talked about the summer of humiliation. It was humiliating summer both for Europe and for Fonder Leyen, I mean, it's been such a crazy summer that I had forgotten that just in July she faced that no confidence vote. So, Paul, though, let me turn to you. You've been kind of seriously talking to people around the newsroom about topics that might be coming up at the State of the Union address. Other than kind of economy and Draghi, what else is on the. Potentially on her teleprompter.

[Paul Dallison]

Yeah. As Nick said, she's going to have to walk quite a careful line here because she's going to want to talk about the boosting of competitiveness in European industry and defence, whilst also not admitting that they've done nothing. And it's going to have to be talking about the difficult other people in the world, the Russians, the Chinese, and how Europe is going to need to work together. I actually think this week's GPS jamming of the signal on her plane while she was in Bulgaria, it's probably good thing for her. She could use that as a key part of the speech. Look what happened. I was visiting a frontline member state and this happened to my plane. This could also happen to infrastructure. There could be all sorts of kind of hybrid attacks. So we've got to stand together as Europe is going to be her message, whether people can respond to that message by going, okay, then what are we doing to stand together? What? That's the difficult part for her.

[Sarah Wheaton]

There actually has been some debate about whether that GPS jamming actually happened, but that's certainly what the Bulgarians announced had happened. But to Paul's point, it is. It is useful for von der Leyen to point to it as a sign that maybe Russia and other world powers see her as this important, powerful embodiment of Europe. But you know, she's been actually lately accused of centralizing power. There are suggestions that she's sidelining European Council President Antonio Costa Rica, her top diplomat Kaya Callis and other commissioners. Does that shape how this State of the EU address will land in Parliament and in the capitals?

[Nick Vinokur]

Yeah, I think the thing about Ursula von der Leyen and I, we were talking about this quite a lot over the summer because I was researching a piece about her head of cabinet, Bjorn Seibert. One of the most interesting insights was somebody who said, you got to remember these people come from the German Defense Ministry and their instinct is to be defense people as opposed to economy people or green deal people. And I think that's really been borne out. You know, what's the first thing she did getting back after the Summer is she went on this big kind of frontline tour of, you know, Russia border states and had this kind of threat to her plane. I do think that plays into her desire to be seen as kind of a defense leader. Now, the problem is that, you know, like we said on the economy, I think the legacy is not as strong. But is that where she's going to get attacked in the European Parliament? No, I think it's going to be things like Israel, Gaza. I think it's going to be from the left. This new feature, the trade deal is going to be attacked from the right. It could be the war in Ukraine. Continuing the war in Ukraine. Yeah. I think it's going to be a difficult speech for her. The critics are going to feel really emboldened to go after her on all these different counts.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Klaya, I mean, I realize that the Elysee is going to be a bit distracted and not able to pay attention, probably, to what's going on in Strasbourg. But in general, you know, what is your sense in this key capital of how they're feeling about Fonder Leyen's leadership?

[Clea Kolkutt]

Yeah, they're going to be even more distracted because September 10th is a big day of protests in France. So there's been these sort of Internet calls to block the whole country on September 10th. They're gathering steam. So who knows what President Macron is going to be dealing with on that day? But what we've seen so far is the Macron von der Leyen relationship is quite common, complicated, and it's fraught. I mean, there's a lot of baggage there, there's a lot of history. They're intertwined. But at the same time, they had some major clashes, notably over who was going to be France's commissioner in her second mandate. So what we've seen is that the French president is not happy with the way that von der Leyen managed the trade deal with Trump, we understand, because of leaks, because of his silence, his lack of support. We know he's not happy. We know that they all the time. And France feels that she should listen more. I think France resents this sort of State of the Union thing. I mean, she's not, you know, there's one president, it's Macron. But I think they'll be watching for particular things on big topics that Macron's attached to, like sovereignty, like competitiveness, like investment.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Well, yeah, I mean, and that's a really interesting point, that there are going to be these protests potentially all over France, maybe even in Strasbourg on the day of this speech. So potentially a lot of heckling happening outside the building. Paul, you've been thinking about hecklers who might be in the room. What should we watch out for there?

[Paul Dallison]

Yeah, there could be a lot of them. Huge far right and far left presence in the Parliament these days. Remember, 175 MPs voted against her in that vote of no confidence. There are a couple of Romanian MEPs I'll be particularly watching out for. And apologies in advance to Romanian listeners about my pronunciation. George Piperiou, who brought the confidence motion against von der Leyen, he's clearly not a fan. And there's, of course, Diana Soshuaka. Now, you might remember her turning up in the Parliament wearing a dog muzzle. And she's also had some extraordinary outbursts. So I think if anyone's going to disrupt this, she's the first person I'm looking at.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Any other kind of excitement or things out of the ordinary that you're watching for and maybe even hoping will happen a little bit?

[Paul Dallison]

Surely some MEP will fall asleep and hopefully be captured by the cameras. That's always something to look out for. It's always interesting as well to see how many people turn up, how many empty seats there are, whether people protest by turning up and heckling Von der Leyen, or whether they protest against the whole thing by just not turning up. It's always such an awful look for the EU when there's a big set piece event like this and a quarter of the hemicycle is empty. So I'll be watching out for that.

[Clea Kolkutt]

Yeah.

[Sarah Wheaton]

And Clay mentioned some buzzwords that Paris is hoping to hear. Paul, you're working on sort of a fantasy state of the EU address, compiling what everybody would like to hear Von der Leyen say across different sectors. Can you give us an example of a line that Brussels wants but will never hear? And then also one line that she will almost certainly say.

[Paul Dallison]

The one line I think we would like to hear in Brussels is for her to actually say, you know what? The trade deal that I struck with Trump wasn't that great, was it? I like a lot of honesty from politicians. Of course she's not going to say that. She's going to have to tiptoe around the Trump situation throughout the whole speech. I think it would also be nice if she was to use the phrase I don't know. Again, I think all politicians should use the phrase I don't know in their speeches, because people would like them more, but I don't think that will happen.

[Sarah Wheaton]

I don't know if journalists would like that more. But yeah, and so what's one line that you think actually, I have to write kind of the big sweepy article after the speech. So what's the one line that I can already have in my article?

[Paul Dallison]

She's going to mention competitiveness. I'm going for at least 20 times on the bingo card. I'm putting together growth and jobs. She's going to use that a lot, which is one of my least favorite terms in the bubble, because surely everybody wants growth and jobs, so there's going to be a lot of that. She'll use the word courage a lot. She'll use the word sustainability a lot. All the classic buzzwords I think will be run out for this speech.

[Sarah Wheaton]

All right, nice. And looking further into the autumn, what moments are you watching for, Nick? Start with you?

[Nick Vinokur]

Yeah, I mean, the State of the Union is obviously going to be a big one. Kick off the year in sort of international use. There's the UN General assembly, which is happening at the end of the month, and that's going to be a big kind of arena about Israel, Gaza, and we're probably going to see a really concerted push to recognize a Palestinian state. So I think you're going to see that situation really sort of top the agenda for that entire week. France has been pushing for this. Belgium has gone ahead and recognized a Palestinian state. In the meantime, the Israel Gaza situation has led to the collapse of the Dutch government. So this is an issue that really sort of causes governments to rise and fall and is massively important in the world. And I think the Unger is going to be massive that way.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah, I mean, ironically, we might see action on this global level and as you mentioned, action on the national level, but there's still been like zilch at the EU level.

[Nick Vinokur]

No, I mean, not even the sort of minimal attempt to limit certain horizon funding.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Research funding.

[Nick Vinokur]

Research funding for actually just a little part of it for EU startups. Not even that has won approval around the European Council table. So the EU is still divided and sort of unable to act together on Israel.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Claya, what's on your radar?

[Clea Kolkutt]

Well, for us, it's mainly that we'll be entering the sort of countdown to the cliff edge of budget talks in France. So if we have Beru's government falling on Monday, which in all likelihood is going to happen, then there's a scramble to get a budget for France ahead of a deadline on 31 December, and there's all sort of small deadlines in between. So you know, a budget needs to be debated by parliament and then go to one of France's top courts. And so a budget needs to be put together before sort of mid October, and therefore you need a government in place before then to get a budget through. So basically we'll be entering this race where everything needs to be decided. But at the same time, there's. There's complete vagueness over where a solution, how a solution can emerge in parliament so that France indeed does have a budget before next year.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Paul, what are you looking out for?

[Paul Dallison]

Well, I think with the EU facing so many problems, the next election coming up, the next big election is the Czech election, which is the beginning of October, and we could well end up with Andre Babys back as prime minister. So kind of the last thing that Ursula von der Leyen will be wanting to see and many of the other national leaders will be wanting to see is a return of another populace at the council table. So that's another big thing that's coming up soon.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah, indeed. I think that's going to be a theme for the year ahead. More kind of pro Putin forces emerging as we have more elections. The Czech election could go one way. On the other hand, the Netherlands, which is also holding an election October, looks like they might go back with a more centrist governing coalition. So, yeah, we'll see. All right, Clea, Paul, Nick, thanks so much for joining me. Thank you.

[Nick Vinokur]

Thanks for having us.

[Paul Dallison]

Thank you.

[Sarah Wheaton]

All right, that's it from us this week. If you haven't already, subscribe to EU Confidential. Wherever you get your podcasts, rate us, leave a review, or if you have ideas for guests or topics, drop us a [e-mail] thanks to Deanna Sturris, our senior audio producer, and to Ann McKelvie, POLITICO's head of audio. I'm Sarah Wheaton. See you next week.

[Nick Vinokur]

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