Ursula’s Fight Song — who’s singing along?

Summary

EU Confidential – Ursula’s Fight Song: Who’s Singing Along?

Podcast: EU Confidential
Date: September 12, 2025
Host: Sarah Wheaton (POLITICO)
Panelists: Max Guerrero (Strasbourg correspondent), Reem (Carnegie Europe), Karsten Jesky (ING), Sorika Edwards (Housing Europe)
Episode Theme: This episode unpacks European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the European Union (SOTEU) speech—a more combative, urgent, and politically fraught address than in years past—and gauges its impact on Brussels, EU member states, and the wider geopolitical context. The episode explores whether von der Leyen’s “fight” rhetoric matches the substance of her proposals and if, amidst mounting crises and political fragmentation, anyone is rallying behind her leadership.

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EPISODE OVERVIEW

Von der Leyen’s SOTEU speech took center stage this week as Europe juggles external threats (Russia’s aggression, US tensions) and internal divisions (Gaza, far-right advances, policy gridlock). With populist dissatisfaction swelling and criticism mounting even within her coalition, von der Leyen declared, “Europe is in a fight”—but who, if anyone, is really fighting with her, and does her agenda have teeth? POLITICO’s panel analyses the tone, substance, political theater, and reactions to the speech, and assesses Europe’s strategic dilemmas in a rapidly shifting global order.

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STRUCTURED SUMMARY

1. The State of Europe: “Under Siege” ([00:41])

• Context: Ursula von der Leyen gives her annual SOTEU speech against a backdrop of peril—Russian drones threaten Polish airspace, criticism mounts over EU’s engagement with Gaza, and von der Leyen’s own leadership faces a legitimacy crisis.

• Political Fragmentation: Recent polls show most Europeans want her to resign; her coalition is fraying.

• Main Rhetoric: She frames her address as “a fight for our future,” staking out Europe’s independence in a hostile world.

  “A fight for a continent that is whole and at peace. A fight for our values… Make no mistake, this is a fight for our future.”
  — Ursula von der Leyen, [01:51]

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2. What Was New? Tone and Theatrics ([02:11]–[06:46])

• Break from the Past: The SOTEU, often “a bit of a snooze,” stood out for a “swashbuckling” tone. Some unprecedented promises:

  • Sanctions on Israeli extremist ministers/settlers and partial suspension of EU–Israel agreements
  • Proposal to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine aid
  • Rejection of US (Trump) pressure on tech regulation

  “We set our own regulation. Europe will always decide for itself.”
  — Ursula von der Leyen, [02:54]

• Political Theater in Strasbourg:

  • Socialists, Greens, Liberals dressed in red to protest EU’s inaction on Gaza ([05:20])
  • Special guests: Sasha, a Ukrainian teenager kidnapped by Russia (framed as “Ukraine’s relentless fight for freedom”), and a Greek firefighter celebrated for cross-border heroism ([05:57]–[06:32])
  • Cheeky side note: The firefighter drew “sensation” for his looks—“I heard the firefighter was pretty hot.”
    — Sarah Wheaton, [06:39]

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3. Reactions Inside the European Parliament ([04:09]–[09:56])

• Atmosphere: Parliament was chaotic, with “booing and cheering,” especially during sanctions announcements ([07:09]).
• Political Infighting:
  • Prominent clash: Manfred Weber (EPP) vs. Iratxe García (S&D), deflecting from the speech to blame each other for coalition instability ([08:04])
  • Von der Leyen’s efforts at appeasement: “She really seemed to be trying to make nice with the center left.”
    — Sarah Wheaton, [08:48]
• Coalition Mood: Far-left and far-right remain critical, but some center-left/centrist anger seems “calmer” for now.

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4. Expert Panel: Substance vs. Rhetoric ([10:10]–[33:26])

a) Gaza, Israel, and Inaction ([10:47]–[12:56])

• Von der Leyen’s Break with Berlin’s Line:

  • Calls Israeli actions in Gaza “unacceptable.”
  • Outlines partial suspension of EU–Israel association.

  “She said, I quote, ‘man made famine can never be a weapon of war.’ And she said, ‘what is happening in Gaza is unacceptable.’”
  — Reem, [11:41]

• Panel’s Take: Unprecedented for Germany’s former defense minister, but “no consensus” among EU27; main theme is “inaction due to division.”

b) Economic Policy & Competitiveness ([12:56]–[14:23])

• “Sweat and Tears” vs. Deliverables:

  • Von der Leyen’s urgent tone mismatched by lack of new economic solutions; little progress since Draghi report.

  “[It] was mainly a European Commission... that currently can only agree to step up defence spending, but is completely unable... to really improve economic competitiveness.”
  — Karsten Jesky, [14:23]

c) Housing Crisis and Social Policy ([14:26]–[17:12])

• Acknowledgement of Social Crisis: Keys in on housing as more than economics—it’s part of “Europe’s social fabric.”

  “This is more than a housing crisis, this is a social crisis. It tears Europe’s social fabric, it weakens our cohesion…”
  — Ursula von der Leyen, [14:38]

• Panel’s Take: Welcome focus, but “no surprises”; only modest steps forward on investment/state aid. Risk that anti-poverty efforts are hamstrung by national resistance and limits of EU competence.

d) US–EU Trade, Trump, and Geopolitical Leverage ([17:12]–[21:31])

• Von der Leyen’s Spin: Defends trade deal with US as “the best agreement,” warning of chaos from a trade war.

  “Picture the chaos.”
  — Ursula von der Leyen, [17:43]

• Expert Skepticism:

  • Panel doubts the “best deal” framing. Sees EU lacking leverage; US weaponizes tariffs with increasing frequency.
  • Reem: “EU is basically just trying to buy time… They played their hands very badly… The EU should be treated with the same respect the US gives China, and that’s not happening.” ([21:31])

e) Internal EU Strategy: Defending the Welfare State? ([23:03]–[26:03])

• New World Order Risks:

  • Fears that US pressure and cost-of-living crises could erode the welfare state and fuel further populism.
  • Housing: “The risk that with the undermining of the welfare state, we shift to even more populist measures here in Europe as well.”
    — Sorika Edwards, [23:37]

• Policy Limitations: Von der Leyen promises more aid for housing, but national competence remains a constraint.

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5. Big Picture: “Europe is in a fight”—But Is It Ready? ([28:48]–[33:21])

• Coalition Calculus: Von der Leyen avoids “red meat” for her own political base, trying to hold a centrist coalition together ([28:48]).

• Metaphor of the Day: Europe is “in a fight”—a major theme.

  “I hope… Brussels understands that it’s a fight with no rules—a fight for which they’re ill-equipped. The whole idea of the EU is that it’s a normative power and it’s based on rules and orders… They’re having to actually learn to chew and throw punches and duck punches all at the same time.”
  — Reem, [29:25]

• Can Europe Win?

  • Collaboration vs. Confrontation:
    • Sorika: “War is never the answer… maintain the spirit of Europe as a peace project.”
      ([31:38])
    • Karsten: “All the other big economic blocks… play according to other rules. If it [the ‘fight’] is taken up as a wake-up call, then I support it. But unless we make sacrifices, we will lose.” ([32:16])

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6. France’s Political Upheaval ([33:26]–[37:21])

• Macron’s Government Collapses… Again:
  • PM Francois Beraut loses confidence vote after failing to build support for his “austerity” budget ([33:47]).
  • Observations: “United the French public—in opposition.”
    — Reem, [34:23]
  • New PM Sebastien Lecornu: Macron confidant, tasked with coalition-building before forming a cabinet ([35:51]).
  • European implications: French instability raises doubts about Macron’s effectiveness on Ukraine, US-EU trade, and more.

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NOTABLE QUOTES & MEMORABLE MOMENTS

• Von der Leyen’s Core Message:

  “Europe’s independence moment.”
  — Ursula von der Leyen, [03:05]

• On EU’s Geopolitical Struggle:

  “The EU has been talking for seven years about becoming a geopolitical power, but it’s a lot of talk and very little actual action… At least they recognize they’re in a fight. I just want to make sure that they understand which weight category they’re in right now and how fast… the punches come and they need to change their mindset.” — Reem, [29:25]–[31:26]

• On Welfare State Risks:

  “We see a threat… this is why… now we have the agreement about the risks, but what we have to… agree on are also the solutions.” — Sorika Edwards, [25:21]

• On Economic Reality:

  “Someone should also tell the bitter truth… we need to change the system, whether it is changing the fiscal rules, whether it is coming up with some kind of euro bonds, but otherwise this is not going to work.” — Karsten Jesky, [26:22]

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TIMESTAMPS FOR KEY SEGMENTS

• Von der Leyen’s “Fight” Speech & New Proposals: [01:51]–[03:07]
• Parliamentary Atmosphere and Symbolic Gestures: [04:09]–[07:48]
• Coalition Responses and Political Infighting: [08:04]–[09:56]
• Expert Panel on Gaza/Israel, Ukraine, and EU Policy: [10:47]–[12:56]
• Debate on Economic Policy, Housing Crisis: [12:56]–[17:12]
• US-EU Trade & “Strategic Patience” Critique: [17:12]–[21:31]
• Panel on Welfare State, Social Policy Limits: [23:03]–[26:03]
• Roundtable: “Is Europe in a fight—and can it win?” [28:48]–[33:21]
• French Government Collapse: [33:26]–[37:21]

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OVERALL TONE & TAKEAWAYS

• Tone: Urgent, often combative, but tempered by skepticism—both within the Parliament and among policy experts.
• Big takeaway: Ursula von der Leyen has changed her language and raised the stakes, but the panel doubts whether bold rhetoric and displays of urgency are matched by new policy solutions or EU unity. The episode ends with a sense of strategic uncertainty—Europe must recognize the scale and nature of the “fight” it is in and adapt quickly if it’s to survive both internal and external threats.

Transcript

[Sorika Edwards]

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[Max Guerrero]

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[Karsten Jesky]

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[Karsten Jesky]

Pain and we've got a little cash to rebuild the old deck Boring money moves make kind of lame songs but they sound pretty sweet to your wallet.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Brilliantly boring since 1865 under siege that's how everything felt in the moment when Ursula Fonderlyen stepped up to give her most important speech of the year earlier this week. Week, Europe itself felt under siege. In Poland, NATO fighter jets were scrambling to take down some Russian drones, bringing us closer to open conflict, as Prime Minister Donald Tusk put it, than at any time since World War II. And von der Leyen herself as a leader, was facing unprecedented political pressure. Everyone's got beef with her, it seems. Mad about her trade deal with Trump, mad about the commission's inaction on Gaza, mad about her party's moves to cozy up to the far right. A recent survey in five European countries found that 6 in 10 respondents want her to resign. So that's the state of the politics. What is the state of the European Union? According to Fonder Leyen, Europe is in a fight.

[Ursula von der Leyen]

A fight for a continent that is whole and at peace. A fight for our values, a fight for our liberty and our ability to determine our destiny for ourselves. Make no mistake, this is a fight for our future.

[Sarah Wheaton]

You know, usually the state of the European Union speeches are a bit of a snooze. So there's some stock taking this sort of Christmas tree of vague policy proposals, lots of buzzwords like competitiveness repeated endlessly. But this time von der Leyen came out swinging, swashbuckling, even proposing to punish the Israeli government.

[Ursula von der Leyen]

We will propose sanctions on the extremist ministers and on violent settlers pushing to.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine.

[Ursula von der Leyen]

This is Russia's work, and it is Russia that should pay.

[Sarah Wheaton]

And vowing not to let Trump bully the EU on tech regs.

[Ursula von der Leyen]

We set our own regulation. Europe will always decide for itself.

[Sarah Wheaton]

She framed it as nothing less than Europe's independence moment.

[Ursula von der Leyen]

Europe's independence moment.

[Sarah Wheaton]

The headlines were bold, but was the speech really different from years past? Does she have any power to actually make her Promises reality. And with her own coalition fraying, did Ursula Fonder Leyen convince anyone that this truly is Europe's independence moment? I'm Sarah Wheaton, host of EU Confidential. This week, we'll unpack what Fondr Lyon said, what she left out, and what it all means. I'll be joined by a panel of experts. But first we'll dial into Strasbourg, where my colleague Max Guerrero was listening closely and taking the pulse of how the Commission president's speech, which insiders refer to by its acronym soteu, landed with lawmakers. Okay, Max, so you were just telling us before we started recording that the Parliament is just a complete zoo. But aside from the throngs of journalists, what's the vibe like there? And kind of, what was the mood, especially about Fondra Lyon, before she started talking?

[Max Guerrero]

Well, of course, let's say physically, the Parliament is full of people, a lot of journalists, a lot of MPs, of course, just running around. Everyone was really looking forward to this first Soteo of Wonderland's second term. On a more political level, the vibe, the mood was more grim, let's say, of course, we come from a motion of no confidence two months ago, in the middle of July, a motion of.

[Sarah Wheaton]

No confidence against Fon der Leyen that she survived. But it was not pretty.

[Max Guerrero]

Exactly. It was not pretty. Everyone had something to say about her governance. Everyone except for epp, of course. Her party, her coalition partners, the Socialists, the Liberals, used the chance to squeeze concessions out of her. So now you could see this sort of like, fallout coming in the Soteo.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Well, yeah, so she kind of had a lot of criticism to answer. But of course, this is also kind of modeled on the US style State of the Union speech. So people love kind of bringing in a lot of pomp and circumstance. They bring in kind of people to reflect the narrative that they're trying to share. So what was the choreography of this speech?

[Max Guerrero]

There were, of course, a lot of stunts. Let's say it started all this morning with the Socialists, the Greens, liberals on the left showing up to the hemicycle wearing red clothes to denounce what they say is the Commission silence amidst Israel's war in Gaza. So that was the first one. But then, of course, inside the hemicycle, Von der Leyen also brought some guests. We had Sasha, a Ukrainian teenager that was kidnapped by Russian soldiers and brought into Russia. He came with his grandmother. And of course, von der Leyen brought it up as an example of how Europe needs to defend Ukraine vis a vis Russia.

[Ursula von der Leyen]

Sasha did not give up on a stop. On the way, he asked to borrow a stranger's phone and he called his grandma Ludmiller Baba, just take me home. Honorable members, please join me in paying tribute to Sasha, to Lyudmila, and to Ukraine's relentless fight for freedom. Stand up.

[Max Guerrero]

Then we also had a firefighter, a Greek firefighter that had been in Spain, in Asturias, helping Spanish firefighters fend off all the fires.

[Ursula von der Leyen]

Lieutenant Dianicolaos, your courage is an inspiration to all of us.

[Sarah Wheaton]

I was like deep, you know, typing, just listening without looking. But I heard. I heard the firefighter was pretty hot.

[Max Guerrero]

Well, indeed, the firefighter caused some sensation across the press room. I received many text messages of people commenting on his looks.

[Sarah Wheaton]

All right, I'll have to go back and check the video. That was one of the kind of informal things that got people talking. But of course, there was plenty of reaction in the room to what von der Leyen was saying.

[Max Guerrero]

Yes, indeed. So more and more this parliament is louder, let's say, when there's addresses by the commission president or other leaders. This was not an exception. Right. We heard a lot of booing, but we also heard a lot of cheering, depending on the situation. So, for example, when she announced sanctions on Israeli ministers and settlers, there was a lot of booing from the right wing side of the hemicycle, but then also a lot of cheering. At one point there was so much heckling that Parliament President Roberta Mezzola had to intervene at some point. She also had to give an ultima to the lawmakers that were making noise and said, if you don't stop, I'm going to have to kick you out of the chamber. So the atmosphere was definitely very heated.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah. And I mean, it seemed superheated even after the speech. I mean, the kind of formal debate among the political group leaders was pretty spicy, broadly. Did you get to kind of take the pulse of the room and what were kind of rank and file MEPs telling you?

[Max Guerrero]

Well, I was very surprised, to be honest, to see the very heated exchange between Manfred Weber, the chair of vpp, and Irace Garcia, the chair of the Socialists and Democrats. It was first Weber who sort of picked on Irace by sort of saying that the Spanish Socialists are the problem in the Social Democratic family and the ones really making the centrist coalition holding the together very unstable. And then actually the Irace right after impromptu. She hadn't planned it. She sort of answered and said, look, von der Leyen, you have a big problem in this house and it has a name, it's Manfred Weber and his epp. So they sort of really got personal instead of focusing on sort of answering to what von der Leyen had to say during her speech.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah, and I mean, that was really interesting to me because it was very clear that von der Leyen, by making a lot of social proposals that we'll talk about later on housing, on ending poverty, kind of not going too hard on the whole cutting red tape thing, she really seemed to be trying to kind of make nice with the center left. And then Weber apparently just kind of went in and heated things right back up again.

[Max Guerrero]

Exactly. Right after the debate. The mood among MEPs differs a lot, of course, on who you talk. The far right continues to criticize von der Leyen, the far left continues to criticize von der Leyen. But definitely you can sense from Renew the. The liberals in the center and the Social Democrats that this sort of rage you could sense before the SOTEU has sort of calmed down because they've seen their demands reflected in her speech. Of course, now we will have to see in the coming days whether all these proposals are really implemented and whether the Social Democrats and liberals are really happy. But for now, it seems von der Leyen has managed to appease these sort of tensions that we had over summer during the motion of no confidence.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Okay, well, Max, we'll see if that lasts for now. We'll let you get back to work. Thank you so much for joining us.

[Max Guerrero]

Thank you very much. I have still a lot to do indeed. As I said at the beginning, this place is a jungle.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Okay, so she's at least temporarily satisfied key players in the parliament. But let's see how some actual experts rate the substance. I'm happy to welcome those experts. Now, Karsten Jesky, global head of Macro Research at ing, zooming in from Paris, Remontes Editor in Chief of Carnegie Europe's Strategic Europe blog. And here with me in the studio, Sorika Edwards, Secretary General of Housing Europe. Well, thank you all for joining us for this rapid reaction. Reem, let me start with you. What stood out to you in this speech?

[Reem]

I have to underline what she said about the EU Israel relationship because of where von der Leyen comes from, because of the fact that she was a German minister for so long, because of the German historic weight and the difficulty with sometimes, you know, having a bit of distance from the Israeli government. It was very interesting that she said that the commission was going to propose a partial suspension of the EU Israel association agreement. She also went further than I've ever heard her and she said, I quote, man made famine can never be a weapon of war. And she said, what is happening in Gaza is unacceptable. That's an interesting move on her part that I wasn't necessarily expecting, especially since there's absolutely no consensus among the EU27 over even a partial suspension of the association agreement, even if the articles in the agreement do call for it.

[Sarah Wheaton]

It seemed to be a turning point for von der Leyen, but is it going to be a turning point for EU policy given that the inaction that she was sort of trying to respond to is due to division among the member states?

[Reem]

That's the central question. And it actually is a great segue to the other thing that struck me. I mean, I think there is unfortunately a theme which is inaction. Inaction on Gaza because of division. Inaction on Russia and Ukraine not because of division, but actually because of, I don't know, cowardice, weakness, hypocrisy. Take your pick, we can go down that road. When she said, you know, again with this mantra that you always hear from Brussels about the 19th package and the 18th package of sanctions, and then she goes, we're particularly looking at phasing out Russian fossil fuels faster. We're looking at the shadow fleet in a third countries. Come on, guys, it's been three years. You've been saying for three years that what's happening in Ukraine is actually European national security on the line, and you still haven't clamped down on shadow fleets and on Russia's main source of foreign currency. It's just not serious. It's hard to take these people seriously at this stage.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Well, that's a good segue to one of my questions for Carsten. Speaking of inaction, we had you on a year ago, and that was right when the Draghi report was first published. That was supposed to be this big initiative about ways to make the EU and its economy more competitive. You said it was full of good ideas but almost impossible to implement. Those comments are aging well. You're looking right. Did you see Fonr Leyen as kind of admitting that today? And did she offer any way to kind of move forward?

[Karsten Jesky]

In all honesty, no. What stood out for me was not so much her talk about economics, but really this kind of sweat and tears story. So the tone has become more urgent. But like you just discussed, the policies that von der Leyen is offering are not really matching the tone of urgency that we heard today. So when it comes to economic shores, you had to talk a little bit about the Draghi report because Very little has happened over the last 12 months, which is not only due to the European Commission. It also is due to the lack of commitment, the lack of willingness by member states. And to me, what I heard today was mainly a European Commission, maybe European Union, that currently can only agree to step up defence spending, but is completely unable and also unwilling to really improve economic competitiveness of the bloc.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Sirica, how about you? What stood out?

[Sorika Edwards]

Obviously my focus was particularly on the field that I'm defending, so the right to decent housing for all. So obviously primarily reassured that this topic has remained strongly on the agenda.

[Ursula von der Leyen]

This is more than a housing crisis, this is a social crisis. It tears Europe's social fabric, it weakens our cohesion and it also threatens our competitiveness.

[Sorika Edwards]

I'm very much welcoming the tone. Indeed, as I just said, the tone of urgency also linked to this issue, but similarly actually to what Carsten said. I think in terms of policies we have to do to make sure that the policies that we can actually influence from EU level are actually up to the level of urgency. So a similar sort of a feeling there.

[Sarah Wheaton]

We, I mean, and we actually invited you to join us before we knew that housing would be such a big focus of the speech. I mean, did you know that you were going to get some time?

[Sorika Edwards]

We did have a feeling and I think obviously the draggy report is still, perhaps not as quite as fast as some might like, but it is still driving a lot of the energy. And there we. We clearly also had the link between, so the clash between competitiveness and not having enough housing. So basically you can have growth centers, but if people can't move there and can't find decent housing, the growth is not going to get very far. So we were expecting that that would be an easy segue for her to make and also the fact that she has something to report. We now have over 25 civil servants working on a plan within the European Commission and we have a committee on that in the European Parliament now, but extended by six months. Having said that, no surprises in terms of measures. We knew that the push on short term lets was going to be mentioned again and state aid being sort of the only, let's say, concrete progress that has been made, legally speaking there. We also have mixed feelings. Obviously boost investment very much welcome, but we have to recognize that investment in housing or in real estate is actually.

[Reem]

One of the reasons we are in.

[Sorika Edwards]

This problem in the first place. But again, excellent that I think the urgency that she mentioned, sort of the uncertainty anxiety that brings for citizens and knowing that and the EU's main strength, I mean, she mentioned the EU's main strength being the single market. I'll say the EU's main strength is the ongoing support of citizens. So I think we cannot underestimate the role of that uncertainty anxiety that the housing crisis is bringing and the fact that naive's now being linked to housing, the urgency that that should also bring so that support of citizens and the link to their well being being affordable housing.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah, I mean that was a striking moment where she really talked about hearing people's concerns about cost of living, about lack of housing. And that was another kind of consistent refrain where she seemed to be trying to say, look people, I hear you, you're unhappy. I get it. One of the areas where she has certainly been hearing a lot of unhappiness is about the EU US trade deal. She really didn't make any new arguments there. She just said it's the best possible outcome.

[Ursula von der Leyen]

We have the best agreement. Without any doubt, the deal provides crucial stability in our relations with the United States at a time of grave global instruments security. Think of the repercussions of a full fledged trade war with the United States. Picture the chaos.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Carsten, you said that this deal laid bare Europe's weaknesses and is anything but a success. Did she make any headway in convincing you that she's right and you're wrong?

[Karsten Jesky]

Unfortunately not. To be honest, I think she just repeated that this was a good deal and you know, she will be right, that this performance probably at the time the best deal possible. But I think it would have also been good to show a little bit that you know what Europe's weaknesses are. Of course von der Leyen cannot stand there and just say that, all right, you know, the thing that I negotiated for you guys was actually pretty weak. But within the context of this sweat and tears story, it would have made sense to also, you know, really be open, be transparent, say that this deal currently is just showing because there was nothing in for Europe. So the only thing that was in for Europe was that it didn't get worse. And I don't know whether I could call this really a success. And what we also have been seeing now over the last couple of days, in all honesty, is that the US administration has once again kind of changed the rules of the game when it comes to trade. And we probably also follow that. Tariffs on steel, aluminium were at 50%, but now US Customs is actually charting these 50% on other goods that only include a little bit of steel and aluminum. So we're Seeing that the tariff burden for European companies is increasing. And we're also seeing that the US is using the instrument of tariffs as a policy lever for all kind of other targets. And Europe has so far nothing to really respond to it.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Okay, we need to take a quick break. When we come back, we'll continue with the state of the European Union and then zoom in on Paris to unpack France's bonkers politics, we'll bid adieu to Prime Minister Francois Beraut, whose government has just fallen, and take a look at his successor, Sebastien lecournu. Stay with us.

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[Reem]

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[Karsten Jesky]

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[Max Guerrero]

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[Sarah Wheaton]

Liberty Mutual Insurance company and affiliates excludes Massachusetts Reem A few days ago you asked a bunch of experts pretty bold question with Trump, has Europe capitulated? Some called it strategic patience, others talked about submission or appeasement. But nearly all agreed that the EU is basically just trying to buy time. After listening to her, you know, do you think she reinforced that impression or did you hear something bolder?

[Reem]

I think saying that the EU is, is showing strategic patience and that something better is to come along is delusional. And I think it's what officials tell themselves because actually they played their hands very badly. And again, we go back to this idea of cowardice in a certain way. And I'm being this harsh because for years what we've heard from wonder leyen, but others as well, by the way, national leaders, is that the EU is a trading superpower, that the one geopolitical objective superpower that the EU has is trade. And we saw how they were utterly unable to use any of the very objective, hard leverage that they do have, especially with the US and when you talk about it with these officials behind the scenes, they tell you it wasn't the right time. We shouldn't be retaliating. I'm like, when is the right time? Because what we've seen is the demonstration that the countries that have imposed a new power dynamic with Trump have gotten away with with more and have gotten better deals. Look at China. The EU should be working at the same level as China. Now, of course, the US has more dependences on China than it does on the eu. I'm not trying to draw a complete parallel there, but the EU should be. Its ambition should be to be treated with the same respect that the US is being forced to treat the Chinese with. And that's not what we're seeing.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah, and Sarka, you and I were both in ALPAC a few weeks ago, and it was really interesting there. We heard the EU's top trade civil servant, Sabina Viand, actually say, you know, we're realizing in our trade negotiations, even with other countries, as a result of this new world Order, that maybe we need to be a little more flexible on our environmental standards, on our labor rights standards. We're seeing the EU face a lot of pressure from Trump on its digital protections. Are you worried that this kind of New World Order is going to compromise protections here in Europe?

[Sorika Edwards]

I think very much so. And when Ursa von der Leyen mentioned today that we have to fight for what we have, what I really thought about, we have to fight for the welfare state that still remains. And we see it in our sector, even the very best housing systems, just because of the cost of construction, land, credit, those three factors. And obviously this global atmosphere that we're seeing, this push for undermining of welfare state and obviously increasing investment on defense and so forth. What we see is the risk that with the undermining of the welfare state, we shift to even more populist measures here in Europe as well. And then we get caught in a vicious circle, which we obviously see the results of that. In the U.S. trump is a result of the cost of living crisis. He raised expectations of the electorate that he was actually going to address. That price of eggs might come, but we are at risk of actually falling into the same traps we see when the government shifted to the right in Finland. One of the first things they did was to undermine housing institutions that have been working effectively, the famous throughout Europe or the world for addressing homelessness, for instance. The first thing they did was to Undermine those institutions and then use actually EU legislation on deficit rules. So shifting the deficit coming from housing or the expenditure, the investment, we should say to be treated as debt. And that was a direct attack on a very, very successful system. We see a threat of this happening and this is why the eu, what we need from them, I mean, now we have the agreement that the risks the housing crisis brings to society, but what we have to actually agree on are also the solutions.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Yeah, I mean, Ursula von der Leyen was up on the podium saying that the EU will revise state aid rules to allow public investment in housing and promise to crack down further on short term rentals. You know, are those, are those actually going to change the game?

[Sorika Edwards]

It was definitely reassuring to hear at least these two action points being mentioned. I think we still have to recognize the fact that these are national competences. And if the commission oversteps the mark, they will have to deal with some member states who are, who definitely would not be open to that. I suppose we are pleased that there's going to be more flexibility around this, but obviously on this issue, the devil is in the detail.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Carsten, over to you. Von der Leyen talked quite a bit about an anti poverty strategy, about Equality Jobs Act. Are there things that Brussels can really do to kind of help regular voters, the types of voters that she might be afraid are going to be drawn to the far right or the far left?

[Karsten Jesky]

Well, I think at least with everything she mentioned, she at least tried to address these European voters and probably also tried to show that Brussels can do something good for you. The problem is, and also with the entire debate on affordable housing, on more housing is something that von der Leyen didn't mention during the speech, namely how to square the circle. And squaring the circle is we have so many justified needs for additional spending, for additional investment. So indeed for trying to sustain our welfare states, defense spending, investment in more competitiveness. But at the same time, that's what we're seeing in France and we're going to see this in other countries as well. We see that public finances, government debt is reaching limits of how far it can increase. Unless we're going to go the European route, be it a eurozone budget, be it euro bonds, what have you. But I think, you know, it's nice to listen to such a speech and to hear all the good that Brussels wants to do. But as long as it only adds up to the long list of already pretty high expenditures in most member states, someone should also tell the bitter truth and the bitter Truth is that we need to change the system, whether it is changing the fiscal rules, whether it is coming up with some kind of euro bonds, but otherwise this is not going to work. And there will have to be some cuts and it's all going to be measures that clearly will not get a lot of electorate support, in my view. What I missed in this speech, I would have also loved to hear a little bit more of this sweat and tears story when it comes to the European economy. Because in my view there is hardly any way out than first seeing a bit of pain, be it in the form of structural reforms, be it in the form of whatever deregulation, maybe cutting on social expenditures in order to get this boost in competitiveness. And then what she did is indeed trying to offer nice words, good intentions, but also knowing that in the end it mainly has to come via member states and via member states budgets. So there can be good talk in Strasbourg or in Brussels, but in the end it is European capitals that have to find the money somewhere. And finding this money is getting increasingly difficult.

[Sarah Wheaton]

One of the things that really stood out to us at Politico is that she didn't throw a lot of red meat to her own base. She seemed very focused on trying to maintain her kind more centrist political coalition. We think that's why indeed she talked so much about housing, about ending poverty. But she also used language that we're not very used to hearing in Brussels. It was for me the standout line. She said, Europe is in a fight. And that's maybe a bitter truth for something that started out as a peace project. So to close out rim, how would you characterize the fight? And is there any way Europe can win?

[Reem]

I mean, I hope that the folks in Brussels understand that it's a fight with no rules. So it's a fight for which they're very ill equipped. Because the whole idea of the EU is that it's a normative power and it's based on rules and orders. And it's mainly also based on the international rules based order that was dominated by the US and now they're having to actually learn to chew and throw punches and duck punches all at the same time. Because the US has now flipped the script and is actively supporting illiberal democrats or illiberal forces in Europe. So that's a huge paradigm shift for Europe. It's also not onside in any reliable way when it comes to the fight against, you know, the more and more assertive and revisionist powers in the world, China and Russia. The EU has been talking for seven years about becoming a geopolitical power, but it's a lot of talk and very little actual action. And they keep wanting to be patted on the back for doing things. I mean, I recognize that the EU actually over the past three years, since 2022, and the Russian invasion, full scale invasion of Ukraine, they've done things faster than they ever had because the EU has always been very slow. They have done things that they never thought they would do. For example, using the peace facility to fund the defense of a country during an actual war. They've put together their minds and their capabilities in order to produce munitions, et cetera, et cetera. Like, I don't want to just throw everything out, right. But unfortunately it hasn't been at the scale or at the speed that is appropriate and that keeps up with just how fast everything is moving around them. And I think that's the major issue they have. At least they recognize they're in a fight. I just want to make sure that they understand which weight category they're in right now and how fast, you know, the punches come and they need to change their mindset.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Okay, so Sarika, we heard rim really torture that fight metaphor for all it was worth. You don't have to stick with that. But generally, same question, how did you interpret that Europe is in a fight comment and can Europe win it?

[Sorika Edwards]

Yeah, the sector we are in, we focus on collaboration. I think the focus today was very much pitting Europe against all other continents. I think we have to find more friends. We have to work in a more collaborative way with those actors that are willing to and play to our strengths. War is never the answer. Violence is never the answer. We have to do our best to promote peace, reconciliation and maintain the spirit of Europe as a peace project. And Ursula von der Leyen, as an individual does not have the authority to go any other way yet.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Kristen, we'll give you the last word.

[Karsten Jesky]

I love the five story and I also love collaboration. I'm a bit afraid that currently all the other big economic blocks are not playing according to the rules or they play according to other rules. So this is unfortunately a fight and I think if it now really is taken up in capitals, if it is this wake up call that unfortunately, whether we like it or not, we are competing, we are fighting with other blocs for our peace, but also for our economic survival. So therefore, if it was a wake up call, I will fully subscribe to it. Can we win it far too early because we're not used to these Kind of fights. We are used to collaboration. We are an export driven economy and we have to learn the new rules. And I think we also have to be willing to make some sacrifices, otherwise we will not gonna win. And we will then complain about the others not playing to the same rules as we do and we might feel better, but we're gonna lose.

[Sarah Wheaton]

All right, well, we'll let Karsten and Sorika go. We're gonna ask Reem to stick around. So thanks to both of you for being here.

[Sorika Edwards]

Thanks a lot, Sara.

[Karsten Jesky]

Thank you.

[Sarah Wheaton]

All right, Reem, I have to ask you about what happened at the beginning of the week in France. As expected, the government fell again. Prime Minister Baru could not rally opposition parties behind his austerity budget and he lost the confidence vote. So what's the mood in Paris now?

[Reem]

I just want to say when we say austerity budget, it's not like Greece 2008. I think people really need to understand that it's very relative austerity for the French. So yeah, he came up with this budget, but he actually didn't do the work to try to build a coalition or any kind of real support beyond own base for this bill. And so it was pretty bad. 364 MPs voted against him. I can tell you that no one in the President or the Prime Minister's camp was expecting this many votes against them.

[Sarah Wheaton]

He's united the French public.

[Reem]

Look at them. They can be united in opposition. They can. You know, it's bad. It's bad also because just remember that now, because obviously since then, the President has appointed a new Prime Minister. He is the fifth prime minister since May 2022. It's a level of instability and unpredictability that's just bad. The markets hate it. The whole thing is a bad look. You know, it also has a European and a foreign policy dimension to it because with this much instability, there are questions about what kind of means and concrete abilities does Macron have today to step up when it comes to Ukraine, to step up when it comes to even the trade war that the US is continuing to wage on Europe, not to mention obviously the belligerence that is more and more assertive from China and Russia. This is no longer just a French domestic thing. It can hamstring Macron's big international gambits. And it's a problem for him because he only has 20 more months to go and so his legacy is on the line.

[Sarah Wheaton]

Well, so let's narrow down briefly. As you mentioned, we do already have a successor to Beru Macron's close ally, Sebastien Lecournu. He's been the Minister of the Armed Forces. What should we know about him?

[Reem]

Le Cornue actually became an unexpected pillar in Macron's very small circle because he is the big survivor. He has been in government since day one, since 2017, at various different positions. He rose through the ranks, and he became the defense minister. He's 39 years old. He has good relationships with other parties, whether it's the Conservatives, because he started his career with the Conservatives, Les Republicans. But he also has learned to have good constructive discussions with the Socialists, with the Greens, but also, by the way, with the far right. And what is interesting about his appointment is, for the first time since Macron has been president, he only announced the appointment of the prime minister without a cabinet. And he said very explicitly in his announcement that the objective and the goal and the mission right now for Le Cornue is to engage in discussions with the coalition that's basically the bedrock of Macron's ruling coalition. That's the center and the center right with the Conservatives, and come up with what he calls a governing platform that he then has to expand to the other parties, the Socialists, the Greens, the Communists, in order to try to get some sort of commitment that there will be more stability and the government won't fall. Only after that will he then appoint his cabinet. So that's an interesting twist, something he's trying out. Let's see if it works.

[Sarah Wheaton]

We don't want to block you from doing your work anymore, Reem, so we'll let you go. Thank you so much.

[Sorika Edwards]

Thank you.

[Sarah Wheaton]

That's it for this busy week. Please subscribe to EU Confidential wherever you get your podcasts and take a moment to rate us and leave a review. We really appreciate it. If you have ideas for guests or topics, drop us an email at podcastolitico EU thanks to Deanna Sturridge, our senior audio producer, and Anne McElvoy, POLITICO's head of Audio. I'm Sarah Wheaton. See you next week.