EU Confidential – Ursula’s Fight Song: Who’s Singing Along?

Podcast: EU Confidential
Date: September 12, 2025
Host: Sarah Wheaton (POLITICO)
Panelists: Max Guerrero (Strasbourg correspondent), Reem (Carnegie Europe), Karsten Jesky (ING), Sorika Edwards (Housing Europe)
Episode Theme: This episode unpacks European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the European Union (SOTEU) speech—a more combative, urgent, and politically fraught address than in years past—and gauges its impact on Brussels, EU member states, and the wider geopolitical context. The episode explores whether von der Leyen’s “fight” rhetoric matches the substance of her proposals and if, amidst mounting crises and political fragmentation, anyone is rallying behind her leadership.

EPISODE OVERVIEW

Von der Leyen’s SOTEU speech took center stage this week as Europe juggles external threats (Russia’s aggression, US tensions) and internal divisions (Gaza, far-right advances, policy gridlock). With populist dissatisfaction swelling and criticism mounting even within her coalition, von der Leyen declared, “Europe is in a fight”—but who, if anyone, is really fighting with her, and does her agenda have teeth? POLITICO’s panel analyses the tone, substance, political theater, and reactions to the speech, and assesses Europe’s strategic dilemmas in a rapidly shifting global order.

STRUCTURED SUMMARY

1. The State of Europe: “Under Siege” ([00:41])

• Context: Ursula von der Leyen gives her annual SOTEU speech against a backdrop of peril—Russian drones threaten Polish airspace, criticism mounts over EU’s engagement with Gaza, and von der Leyen’s own leadership faces a legitimacy crisis.

• Political Fragmentation: Recent polls show most Europeans want her to resign; her coalition is fraying.

• Main Rhetoric: She frames her address as “a fight for our future,” staking out Europe’s independence in a hostile world.

  “A fight for a continent that is whole and at peace. A fight for our values… Make no mistake, this is a fight for our future.”
  — Ursula von der Leyen, [01:51]

2. What Was New? Tone and Theatrics ([02:11]–[06:46])

• Break from the Past: The SOTEU, often “a bit of a snooze,” stood out for a “swashbuckling” tone. Some unprecedented promises:

  • Sanctions on Israeli extremist ministers/settlers and partial suspension of EU–Israel agreements
  • Proposal to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine aid
  • Rejection of US (Trump) pressure on tech regulation

  “We set our own regulation. Europe will always decide for itself.”
  — Ursula von der Leyen, [02:54]

• Political Theater in Strasbourg:

  • Socialists, Greens, Liberals dressed in red to protest EU’s inaction on Gaza ([05:20])
  • Special guests: Sasha, a Ukrainian teenager kidnapped by Russia (framed as “Ukraine’s relentless fight for freedom”), and a Greek firefighter celebrated for cross-border heroism ([05:57]–[06:32])
  • Cheeky side note: The firefighter drew “sensation” for his looks—“I heard the firefighter was pretty hot.”
    — Sarah Wheaton, [06:39]

3. Reactions Inside the European Parliament ([04:09]–[09:56])

• Atmosphere: Parliament was chaotic, with “booing and cheering,” especially during sanctions announcements ([07:09]).
• Political Infighting:
  • Prominent clash: Manfred Weber (EPP) vs. Iratxe García (S&D), deflecting from the speech to blame each other for coalition instability ([08:04])
  • Von der Leyen’s efforts at appeasement: “She really seemed to be trying to make nice with the center left.”
    — Sarah Wheaton, [08:48]
• Coalition Mood: Far-left and far-right remain critical, but some center-left/centrist anger seems “calmer” for now.

4. Expert Panel: Substance vs. Rhetoric ([10:10]–[33:26])

a) Gaza, Israel, and Inaction ([10:47]–[12:56])

• Von der Leyen’s Break with Berlin’s Line:

  • Calls Israeli actions in Gaza “unacceptable.”
  • Outlines partial suspension of EU–Israel association.

  “She said, I quote, ‘man made famine can never be a weapon of war.’ And she said, ‘what is happening in Gaza is unacceptable.’”
  — Reem, [11:41]

• Panel’s Take: Unprecedented for Germany’s former defense minister, but “no consensus” among EU27; main theme is “inaction due to division.”

b) Economic Policy & Competitiveness ([12:56]–[14:23])

• “Sweat and Tears” vs. Deliverables:

  • Von der Leyen’s urgent tone mismatched by lack of new economic solutions; little progress since Draghi report.

  “[It] was mainly a European Commission... that currently can only agree to step up defence spending, but is completely unable... to really improve economic competitiveness.”
  — Karsten Jesky, [14:23]

c) Housing Crisis and Social Policy ([14:26]–[17:12])

• Acknowledgement of Social Crisis: Keys in on housing as more than economics—it’s part of “Europe’s social fabric.”

  “This is more than a housing crisis, this is a social crisis. It tears Europe’s social fabric, it weakens our cohesion…”
  — Ursula von der Leyen, [14:38]

• Panel’s Take: Welcome focus, but “no surprises”; only modest steps forward on investment/state aid. Risk that anti-poverty efforts are hamstrung by national resistance and limits of EU competence.

d) US–EU Trade, Trump, and Geopolitical Leverage ([17:12]–[21:31])

• Von der Leyen’s Spin: Defends trade deal with US as “the best agreement,” warning of chaos from a trade war.

  “Picture the chaos.”
  — Ursula von der Leyen, [17:43]

• Expert Skepticism:

  • Panel doubts the “best deal” framing. Sees EU lacking leverage; US weaponizes tariffs with increasing frequency.
  • Reem: “EU is basically just trying to buy time… They played their hands very badly… The EU should be treated with the same respect the US gives China, and that’s not happening.” ([21:31])

e) Internal EU Strategy: Defending the Welfare State? ([23:03]–[26:03])

• New World Order Risks:

  • Fears that US pressure and cost-of-living crises could erode the welfare state and fuel further populism.
  • Housing: “The risk that with the undermining of the welfare state, we shift to even more populist measures here in Europe as well.”
    — Sorika Edwards, [23:37]

• Policy Limitations: Von der Leyen promises more aid for housing, but national competence remains a constraint.

5. Big Picture: “Europe is in a fight”—But Is It Ready? ([28:48]–[33:21])

• Coalition Calculus: Von der Leyen avoids “red meat” for her own political base, trying to hold a centrist coalition together ([28:48]).

• Metaphor of the Day: Europe is “in a fight”—a major theme.

  “I hope… Brussels understands that it’s a fight with no rules—a fight for which they’re ill-equipped. The whole idea of the EU is that it’s a normative power and it’s based on rules and orders… They’re having to actually learn to chew and throw punches and duck punches all at the same time.”
  — Reem, [29:25]

• Can Europe Win?

  • Collaboration vs. Confrontation:
    • Sorika: “War is never the answer… maintain the spirit of Europe as a peace project.”
      ([31:38])
    • Karsten: “All the other big economic blocks… play according to other rules. If it [the ‘fight’] is taken up as a wake-up call, then I support it. But unless we make sacrifices, we will lose.” ([32:16])

6. France’s Political Upheaval ([33:26]–[37:21])

• Macron’s Government Collapses… Again:
  • PM Francois Beraut loses confidence vote after failing to build support for his “austerity” budget ([33:47]).
  • Observations: “United the French public—in opposition.”
    — Reem, [34:23]
  • New PM Sebastien Lecornu: Macron confidant, tasked with coalition-building before forming a cabinet ([35:51]).
  • European implications: French instability raises doubts about Macron’s effectiveness on Ukraine, US-EU trade, and more.

NOTABLE QUOTES & MEMORABLE MOMENTS

• Von der Leyen’s Core Message:

  “Europe’s independence moment.”
  — Ursula von der Leyen, [03:05]

• On EU’s Geopolitical Struggle:

  “The EU has been talking for seven years about becoming a geopolitical power, but it’s a lot of talk and very little actual action… At least they recognize they’re in a fight. I just want to make sure that they understand which weight category they’re in right now and how fast… the punches come and they need to change their mindset.” — Reem, [29:25]–[31:26]

• On Welfare State Risks:

  “We see a threat… this is why… now we have the agreement about the risks, but what we have to… agree on are also the solutions.” — Sorika Edwards, [25:21]

• On Economic Reality:

  “Someone should also tell the bitter truth… we need to change the system, whether it is changing the fiscal rules, whether it is coming up with some kind of euro bonds, but otherwise this is not going to work.” — Karsten Jesky, [26:22]

TIMESTAMPS FOR KEY SEGMENTS

• Von der Leyen’s “Fight” Speech & New Proposals: [01:51]–[03:07]
• Parliamentary Atmosphere and Symbolic Gestures: [04:09]–[07:48]
• Coalition Responses and Political Infighting: [08:04]–[09:56]
• Expert Panel on Gaza/Israel, Ukraine, and EU Policy: [10:47]–[12:56]
• Debate on Economic Policy, Housing Crisis: [12:56]–[17:12]
• US-EU Trade & “Strategic Patience” Critique: [17:12]–[21:31]
• Panel on Welfare State, Social Policy Limits: [23:03]–[26:03]
• Roundtable: “Is Europe in a fight—and can it win?” [28:48]–[33:21]
• French Government Collapse: [33:26]–[37:21]

OVERALL TONE & TAKEAWAYS

• Tone: Urgent, often combative, but tempered by skepticism—both within the Parliament and among policy experts.
• Big takeaway: Ursula von der Leyen has changed her language and raised the stakes, but the panel doubts whether bold rhetoric and displays of urgency are matched by new policy solutions or EU unity. The episode ends with a sense of strategic uncertainty—Europe must recognize the scale and nature of the “fight” it is in and adapt quickly if it’s to survive both internal and external threats.