EU Confidential – “Von der Leyen vs. Trump: Europe Answers Back”

Date: December 12, 2025
Host: Sarah Wheaton (POLITICO)
Guests: Ursula von der Leyen (President, European Commission), Balázs Orbán (Political Director to Viktor Orbán, Hungarian PM)
Episode Theme:
This episode, recorded at POLITICO’s P28 gala in Brussels, explores Europe’s shaken geopolitical position as Donald Trump tops POLITICO’s “Most Influential” list and lambastes EU leaders. Ursula von der Leyen, Commission President, publicly responds to Trump’s accusations and discusses the EU’s strategy for Ukraine, autonomy, and international relations. The second half features Balázs Orbán, offering the Budapest perspective on Brussels’ crises and Europe’s future political direction.

1. Overview: Europe’s Year-End Reckoning

• Backdrop: The annual “P28” gala in Brussels, assembling the continent’s political elite, arrives just as Donald Trump is named Europe’s most influential person—despite, or because, he’s not European.
• Crisis Mood: Trump’s direct critique (“EU leaders are weak”) and the U.S. national security strategy describing Europe as facing “civilizational erasure” send shockwaves through EU capitals.
• Ukraine at the Center: As the U.S. positions itself as a less reliable ally, Europe grapples with funding and security guarantees for Ukraine.
• Hungary’s Challenge: Amidst these questions, Budapest sees opportunity—not threat—in Trump’s rise.

2. Ursula von der Leyen Responds: Standing Up to Trump

Conversation with Carrie Budolph Brown
(Main Segment: 05:25 – 19:42)

Ukraine’s Fight for Survival

• Uncertain Support: With U.S. aid wavering, Europe must decide whether to step up for Ukraine, including new funding agreements.
  • Von der Leyen on Peace Talks:

    “We’re working intensively towards a just and lasting peace... The 20-point plan is taking more and more shape.” (05:40)

  • Emphasizes that difficult decisions—especially about territory—must rest with Zelensky and the Ukrainian people.
• Russian Assets as Aid:
  • Plan to “immobilize” Russian financial assets in Europe and leverage them as loans for Ukraine’s reconstruction.

    “We will secure the immobilization of Russian assets... so they work for the reconstruction and reparation of Ukraine.” (07:32)

European Unity & Resolve

• The “Steel Porcupine” Strategy:
  • Ukraine must become “indigestible for any potential invader.” (06:35)
• Risks and Belgian Reluctance:
  • Belgium’s concerns about risk-sharing for Russian asset management are slowing the deal; von der Leyen insists, “It’s intense work... The next days will show whether we come to a final agreement.” (09:11)
• Keeping the Pressure Off Ukraine:
  • Fears that if Europe’s unity or support falters, Zelensky could be cornered into a disadvantageous peace.

    “It is of utmost importance that this peace agreement is for a just and lasting peace. Here, the security guarantees play an enormous role.” (09:57)

Broader Peril & Political Will

• Reflecting on Leadership:
  • Von der Leyen lists crises during her term: the pandemic, the energy crunch, Russia’s war.
  • Points to the EU’s successes—pandemic response, standing by Ukraine, and economic recovery—emphasizing collective action.

    “At 27, we can move mountains.” (11:12)

• War Readiness:
  • Mark Rutte’s warning: “Europe needs to prepare for a war with Russia.” Von der Leyen underlines:

    “We have not the luxury of time... There is an enormous urgency and we have to be faster and faster and faster.” (14:34-14:41)

  • Massive step-up in defence investment: €800 billion committed through 2030 (15:17)
  • “We do it with an enormous sense of urgency, not only for defence, but because it’s about our freedom, our prosperity, and our democracy.” (15:45)

The Trump Factor & Transatlantic Strains

• Responding to U.S. “Civilizational Erasure” Claims and Trump’s Attacks
  • Von der Leyen refuses to take the bait, focusing on sovereignty and democratic self-determination:

    “It is not on us... It’s the voters who decide who is the leader, and nobody else is supposed to interfere.” (16:28)

  • She pivots: “That’s why we have proposed the democracy shield now, because this is a phenomenon that we see all over the place...” (16:44)
• Transatlanticism with Eyes Wide Open:
  • “Our relationship to the United States has changed. Why? Because we are changing... Let’s stand up for a unified Europe.” (17:31)

Looking Ahead

• Von der Leyen’s wish for 2026:

  “From the bottom of my heart, I am wishing for peace, peace in Ukraine.” (18:47)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Ukraine has to be so that it is indigestible for any potential invader.” — Ursula von der Leyen (06:35)
• “At 27, we can move mountains.” — Ursula von der Leyen (11:12)
• “We have not the luxury of time.” — Ursula von der Leyen (14:34)
• “It’s not on us... It’s the voters who decide who is the leader.” — Ursula von der Leyen (16:28)
• “[Re: US and Trump] Our relationship to the United States has changed. Why? Because we are changing...” — Ursula von der Leyen (17:31)
• “From the bottom of my heart, I am wishing for peace, peace in Ukraine.” — Ursula von der Leyen (18:47)

3. Balázs Orbán: Hungary’s Outsider Perspective

Conversation with Sarah Wheaton
(Main Segment: 22:07 – 37:22)

Brussels Under Siege—and Opportunity

• Hungary at the “Battle for the Soul of Europe” conference; conference history rooted in defying what they see as suppression of dissent in Brussels.
• Orbán argues Brussels’ institutions have lost legitimacy due to allegations of corruption, leadership crises, and double standards:

  “Brussels and the Brussels institutions are lecturing member states... but there are serious rule of law and corruption related issues here in Brussels which are not treated seriously.” (23:51)

• Sees a need for bottom-up reform, led by the member states, not by the “technocratic elite.”

U.S.–Hungarian Relations in a Trump Era

• Describes Trump as a supporter of Viktor Orbán:

  “President Trump thinks that Prime Minister Orbán is one of the most successful European leaders, and he would be happy to see more respect for Prime Minister Orbán from the European side.” (25:14)

• Calls current EU leadership lacking in vision and strategy; believes only strong member-state-led leadership can “save” Europe.

Power Shifts: The Rise of the Right

• Patriots for Europe group, founded by Orbán, now third largest in EP.
• Orbán: The political center is weakening; the right and “Patriots” are gaining ground.

  “The power of the Patriots and the power of the right is rising, and it will continue that way in the upcoming years. I’m 100% convinced of that.” (28:18)

• Argues that opposition parties should remain uncompromising, rather than aiding current EU leadership:

  “We need to oppose what is going on right now in the European Union because every day I see the mismanagement... and the bad consequences.” (29:52)

Hungarian Election Outlook

• Orbán frames the 2026 Hungarian election as a battle between “the Brussels way” and “the Hungarian way,” asserting that Hungary’s opposition (Péter Magyar/TISZA party) has become “the Brussels guy”:

  “Peter Magyar... is the Brussels guy now. He is the one who is saying that we shouldn’t cause problems for Brussels... That would mean accepting everything dictated by Brussels.” (31:07)

Ukraine and Russia: Hungary’s Position

• Hungary’s engagement with Russia, including recent visits to Moscow, is primarily for securing energy on affordable terms—not ideological support.

  “We went to Moscow and we went to Washington because we want to make sure that we get access to energy at an affordable price.” (32:39)

• Skeptical of Europe’s continued military and financial commitment to Ukraine without an eventual U.S.-Russia deal:

  “Europe is now frozen... I don’t understand why the Europeans are not seeing that there is a significant chance of having an agreement sooner or later between the Americans and the Russians about Eastern Europe, and the Europeans are not even asked.” (33:07)

• Asserts that a “European-Russian confrontation from 2030” is a “dead end street,” should be avoided “at any cost.” (36:02)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Brussels and the Brussels institutions are lecturing member states... but there are serious rule of law and corruption related issues here in Brussels which are not treated seriously.” — Balázs Orbán (23:51)
• “The power of the Patriots and the power of the right is rising, and it will continue that way in the upcoming years.” — Balázs Orbán (28:18)
• “We need to oppose what is going on right now in the European Union... If there is no direction shift, there is no chance for us to do something new.” — Balázs Orbán (29:52)
• “That should be avoided at any cost. And this is why we think that our best chance now is a successful American negotiation strategy.” — Balázs Orbán (36:02)

4. Additional Segment Highlights

(Brief segment around 37:50)

• Quick mention of post-Brexit friction and customs queues for UK citizens:

  “I stood for an hour and a half in the naughty queue at Berlin Airport... We had promises that E gate access would be made easier.” (37:50)

• Directs listeners to a sister POLITICO podcast for in-depth discussion on UK/EU relations.

5. Key Takeaways

• Europe’s Leadership Tested: With the U.S. drifting toward antagonism and domestic discord among member states, the EU has to find unity and resourcefulness—particularly on Ukraine.
• Von der Leyen’s Defiance: Confident in EU achievements, she insists Europe can achieve the “impossible” together, but admits to urgency and risk.
• Transatlantic Uncertainty: Both the US and Europe are recalculating their dependencies and strengths; the “democracy shield” reveals mutual suspicion.
• Rise of the European Right: From Budapest, the political turbulence is a chance, not a problem—Europe’s fragmentation could mean opportunity for nationalist leaders.
• Ukrainian Path: The outcome of the war—and of European politics—will be intertwined in 2026, as Europe attempts to fill the void of waning U.S. support while managing internal dissent.

6. Suggested Timestamps for Reference

• [05:25] – Von der Leyen interview begins (Ukraine funding, Russian assets)
• [11:12] – “At 27, we can move mountains” (on EU unity)
• [14:34] – War readiness, defence investment
• [17:31] – Trump, Transatlanticism, “Let’s stand up for a unified Europe”
• [18:47] – Von der Leyen’s wish for 2026: “peace in Ukraine”
• [22:07] – Balázs Orbán interview: Budapest perspective
• [28:18] – Patriots rising: “the power of the right is rising”
• [36:02] – On European-Russian confrontation: “should be avoided at any cost”
• [37:50] – UK/EU post-Brexit travel friction

Tone:
Throughout the episode, Sarah Wheaton strikes a balance between sober reflection (“the mood is clear... Donald Trump is the cloud hanging over every table”) and brisk, insightful questioning. Von der Leyen is measured, diplomatic but resolute. Balázs Orbán is sharp and combative, representing Hungary’s contrarian, Euroskeptic narrative.

For Listeners:
This episode is essential for understanding the current existential anxieties at the heart of the European project, the rising assertiveness of nationalist leaders, and the enduring shadow cast by Donald Trump over European politics as 2026 approaches.