Von der Leyen won't run for a third term. Or will she?

Summary

Brussels Playbook Podcast – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Von der Leyen won't run for a third term. Or will she?
Date: June 17, 2026
Host: Zoya Sheftalovich (Chief EU Correspondent, POLITICO)
Guest: Ian Wishart (Senior EU Politics Editor)

---

Main Theme / Purpose

This episode centers on renewed speculation about European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s political future, notably whether she truly intends not to pursue a historic third term. Alongside the Brussels succession chatter, the podcast dives into the US-Iran peace deal and its implications for Europe’s ongoing energy crisis, introduces a new, “Made in Europe” social media platform, and wraps up with lighthearted banter on e-scooters. The episode typifies the Playbook’s blend of inside reporting and conversational European political analysis.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Will Ursula von der Leyen Run for a Third Term? (00:22–05:36)

• Speculation and denials: Although von der Leyen’s powerful chief of cabinet, Björn Seibert, has reportedly reassured colleagues she won’t seek a third term, speculation lingers due to her energetic, ambitious approach and tight control of the Commission.
  • “This is the job that Ursula von der Leyen was kind of made for. She’s got this Brussels pedigree...and her whole career in politics...has been geared towards this commission.” — Zoya (01:43).
  • “She runs a very tight ship…I can remember in a really long time.” — Zoya (02:25)
• Recent developments: At a commission restructuring dinner, Seibert’s assurances aimed to curb fears about an impending power grab, but may have inadvertently fueled gossip.
  • “Weird reassurance though. ‘Don’t worry about it. She’s not going to be here in a couple of years.’” — Ian (03:26)
• Political context: No Commission president has ever served three terms, though it’s technically possible. Von der Leyen would be nearly 70 at the start of a potential third term—old, but not unprecedented.
• Uncertainty prevails: Real decisions about succession will only occur after the 2029 EU elections. For now, member states might prefer continuity if no clear alternative emerges.
  • “That sort of decision is not gonna be made for a while, is it?” — Ian (04:54)

2. US-Iran Peace Deal & European Energy Crisis (05:36–10:37)

• Peace announcement: Hostilities between the US and Iran have officially ended with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit point.
• Market response: Oil prices have begun to fall (Brent crude to $81/barrel), encouraged by limited infrastructure damage and hopes for returning normalcy.
• Ongoing challenges: Risks remain: possible Iranian-imposed shipping tolls and concerns about mined waters, making shipping companies hesitant.
  • “Iran was saying they wanted $2 million per tanker…not an insignificant amount of money.” — Zoya (07:02)
• Diplomatic mood: Energy costs remain a core concern for European diplomats, especially in highly affected countries like Italy.
• European competitiveness: Despite the positive news, the fundamental issue for the EU remains the high cost of energy, which threatens industrial competitiveness—a problem outlasting individual crises.
  • “This is the slow burn European competitiveness problem, which will continue even when the Iran war is out of the headlines.” — Ian (08:46)
• European Council Summit: The upcoming summit’s agenda is influenced by these developments. Tensions have eased post-G7, particularly after Donald Trump’s surprisingly positive response to the peace deal.

3. W: The New European Social Media Platform (10:41–13:41)

• Announcement: 'W,' a new social app, is launching in Brussels with von der Leyen reportedly signing up.
  • “It’s the letter after X. No, it’s before!” — Zoya & Ian joke about the naming (11:05)
• USP: W is based in Sweden, data is hosted in Europe, and every user must verify their identity—no bots or trolls allowed. The goal: a civil, “gentler” version of Twitter.
  • “The idea is basically, if you’ve got to prove and be the real version of you, you might not be such an asshole on the Internet.” — Zoya (12:14)
• Skepticism: Both hosts doubt it will actually take off, citing the challenges faced by other alternatives like Bluesky and Mastodon.
  • “It’s always a struggle, isn’t it, to get people to use new apps…” — Ian (12:41)
  • Listeners are invited to suggest better names—“Wise” is floated as an improvement over ‘W’ (13:17).

4. E-Scooter Backlash & Listener Messages (13:41–14:52)

• Ongoing controversy: The hosts revisit heated listener reactions to recent debates over e-scooter bans.
  • “Nicola from Italy…reckons it’s a great form of transport and you don’t wrinkle your suit on the way to work.” — Zoya (13:45)
  • “Why do you have to travel like you’re teenagers?” — Ian (13:58)
• Safety & enforcement concerns: Some see ban proposals as bureaucratic overreach; others cite road safety.
  • “They’re all gonna get killed.” — Ian, humorously dramatic (14:29)

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On von der Leyen’s ambition: “People change their mind…famously, there’ve been stories of people ruling out an extra term and then they have a come to Jesus moment.” — Zoya (04:46)

• On US-Iran tensions: “I can’t believe that nobody has said that the meeting in Evian has watered things down.” — Ian’s pun breaks the tension (10:22)

• On the W app: “It’s Twitter but mellow. It’s Twitter as it used to be is the idea.” — Zoya (11:19)

• On e-scooters: “Supposedly grown ups…why do you have to travel like you’re teenagers?” — Ian (13:58)

---

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:22 — 05:36: Will von der Leyen run again? The succession debate.
• 05:36 — 10:37: US-Iran peace deal and its effects on EU energy and diplomacy.
• 10:41 — 13:41: Launch of W, a new European social media platform.
• 13:41 — 14:52: Listener mailbag and the e-scooter debate.

---

Tone and Style

The hosts maintain their signature conversational, lightly irreverent tone—mixing wry humor, journalistic insight, Brussels gossip, and practical breakdowns of EU politics. The flow is brisk, accessible, and peppered with in-the-know jokes and quick listener engagement.

---

This summary covers all major topics and memorable exchanges for listeners who want the heart of the episode—minus the ads, intro/outro fluff, and non-content banter.

Transcript

[A]

So good, so good, so good. New markdowns up to 70% off are at Nordstrom Rack stores now. Stock up and save big on shoes, tops, dresses, accessories and more must haves for summer. Join the nordiclub to unlock exclusive discounts. Shop new arrivals first and more. Plus, buy online and pick up at your favorite rack store for free. Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack. Good morning. It's Wednesday, June 17, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is successioneering, as denials of a third von der Leyen term only seem to fuel more speculation about one. Also on the pod, the US and Iran seem to have had a peace deal, but the energy crisis isn't over yet and there's a new social media platform in town w it markets itself as being made in Europe. Is that elevator pitch enough to make it take off? I'm Zoya Shatilovich and with me today is our senior EU politics editor, Ian Wishart. Hey, Ian, Good morning.

[B]

Zoya. Have you got here on your e scooter?

[A]

No, I. I don't mess around with e scooters, Ian.

[B]

A lot of people do.

[A]

I know, but I'm scared of them. I don't know if I'm more scared of killing myself or someone else. Anyway, Ian.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Let's get to our first story. Yeah, it's fun. It's about Ursula von der Lyon and more specifically, it's about her plans for a third term or otherwise.

[B]

European Commission president. She's a year or two into her second term. What makes us think that she might want a third?

[A]

Well, she is a pretty Energetic. Yes, energetic. I was gonna say hardcore.

[B]

But ambitious.

[A]

Ambitious, definitely. And people. Oh, my God, so many adjectives. People who I've spoken to over the past kind of year and I've asked this question, like, do we think she's going to run again? What's. What's the plan? Is she going to go be German president? What's happening? And people have sort of come back to this idea that this is the job that Ursula von der Lyon was kind of made for. Yeah, she's got this Brussels pedigree. She was born in Brussels, she's a German politician, big power player in the epp. And her whole career in politics, after she was a medical doctor, her whole career in politics has been geared towards this commission.

[B]

She has kind of bridged sort of German domestic politics and then the EU stage quite well, hasn't she? She has what people say.

[A]

Yeah. And she runs a very tight ship, Ian. She's got a team around her that is really controlling the narrative here in town. She's got a hand on the tiller of the commission. Very powerful commission president, the most powerful I can remember in a really long time.

[B]

So a lot of people are speculating that she might want to run for a third term. But our colleague Gerardo Fortuna has heard that maybe she's thinking about ruling it out, at least unofficially anyway.

[A]

Unofficially, exactly. And this is because. So at the moment we've been talking about it on the podcast, this restructuring of various commission departments. These are the directorates general, some of them on the chopping block, some of them on the amalgamation block. And at a dinner that had some of the people who might be affected by these changes earlier this month, Ursula von de Lyons, very powerful right hand man, Bjorn Seibert, he's her chief of cabinet. He reassured them that while maybe they might think that this is part of some sort of centralization push power grab, that Ursula von der Leyen wasn't intending to stick around for a third term.

[B]

Weird reassurance though. Don't worry about it. She's not going to be here in a couple of years.

[A]

Well, he was trying to explain that like this isn't a power grab. She's not trying to like enjoy the fruits of getting rid of all of your jobs and you know, seeing an unprecedented third term. Because we should say that there hasn't actually been a commission president who served three terms. No, it's not a rule. They could technically.

[B]

And she's still a relatively young woman.

[A]

Yeah. So I think at the next election she would be 70. So I think.

[B]

Isn't he?

[A]

Exactly. And I think they haven't from. I did a little Googling, I must admit, before coming on to the show today and I did look into it. It seems like that is at the upper end. The 70 is kind of the oldest of a commission president starting a term, but not by far. Like there have been people who've a

[B]

lot of travel involved though, isn't there? I mean you are all around Europe and all around the world most weeks.

[A]

Yeah, pret. Pretty frenetic. Trains, planes and automobiles, it never stops. But in any case, look, she doesn't seem like she's slowing down particularly much. But there is this idea that Bjorn Seibert has said to these people, look, she's not.

[B]

It won't stop people gossiping about it though and speculation still until she says something on the record in a speech or something that she's definitely not going to run again. And, and who knows, has she even made up her mind herself? It's interesting though, that beyond Cyber talking to 15 senior commission officials apparently said this, that she's not gonna run again.

[A]

It is super interesting. And look, people change their mind. I mean, there's famously been stories of people ruling out an extra term and then they have a come to Jesus

[B]

moment and depends who would replace her. Maybe this is the decision for the member states and for national governments and if they think, well, actually there's nobody in our ranks that could replace her or in any ranks that could replace her, they might try to persuade her to do another five years. And that sort of decision is not gonna be made for a while, is it?

[A]

No, certainly not. That sort of horse raiding start in earnest after the EU election. So I think we'll be seeing it in 2029.

[B]

She'll have a WhatsApp numbers. Could she just WhatsApp us in and say, just put us all out of our misery. Are you going to run or not?

[A]

I think she should. I mean, the link is in the show notes Ian, and if she doesn't

[B]

want to tell us that, she could just tell us what she thinks of e scooters.

[A]

Oh, I would love that. I wonder if she's ever ridden one. Have you?

[B]

I haven't, no. I can't stand the things.

[A]

So you're proban is what I'm hearing foreign. Second story of the day, it's the US and Iran announcing the end of this war in Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Does that mean the energy crisis is over?

[B]

According to our experts here at Politico, probably not. It's not going to happen overnight, is it?

[A]

No, I guess because this is a pretty complex problem that needs to be resolved.

[B]

We've seen prices already falling, the price of Brent crude has already fallen, and that's the good indication of whether things are getting back to normal or not. One of the biggest positives that experts are saying is that the damage to oil infrastructure around the Strait of Hormuz is actually quite limited. And the people who know about these things say that that's actually a very good signal that things could actually return to normal.

[A]

Yeah. But then there is the question of whether Iran has laid mines in waters around there. And that might be more of a question mark, how long it might take to make sure that it's demind. And again, our colleagues are reporting that there is some hesitation among shipping companies to resume using the Strait just in case there are dangers that lurk beneath.

[B]

Well, there's also this idea that Iran might start imposing tolls. I know Donald Trump said that everything's going to be free and there won't and they won't be free. But that would also, of course, make oil companies very reticent and very reluctant to start.

[A]

Yeah, because remember the size of the tol. I mean, at a certain point, Iran was saying that they wanted 2 million per tanker. So I think it's not an insignificant amount of money. But look, it does look like the markets seem reassured. I think the price of crude Yesterday fell to $81 per barrel, which is the lowest level since early March. So clearly they reckon that this is going away or at least getting better in any case.

[B]

Zoya, in the conversations that you have with diplomats and you're talking to quite senior people in the commission and the council in Brussels all the time, how much do they feel crisis is still hanging over all the decisions that they're making?

[A]

It really depends on the country. So Italy is the kind of clear standout as the country that felt the pain the most.

[B]

I'm only asking this because obviously there's a European Council this week. You know, there's a summit on Thursday and Friday. And I remember the last European Council was really at the peak time of this war with Iran. And actually the sort of thing that everybody was saying, diplomats and officials alike were all saying there's this war going on in the world not too far away from Europe. And here we are talking about next to nothing. And I just wondered whether they still thought that, whether at this week's summit that war would still be looming over

[A]

everything from the conversation again. So, like, when you talk to diplomats from countries that are affected, they still bring up the cost of energy. And it's not necessarily just to do with this war, but it's just an overarching kind of problem.

[B]

So it's the cost of energy rather than the geopolitics, rather than this big transatlantic tension.

[A]

Yes. And because this contributes to the cost of energy and they're concerned about the fact that, you know, to run a factory in Europe, it costs a lot of money. It's costing more and more money. And they're trying to figure out ways of keeping Europe competitive. And that's the big topic of discussion

[B]

I was going to say. And this is the slow burn European competitiveness problem, which will continue even when the Iran war is out of the headlines. And it's something that European leaders are still struggling to get to grips with.

[A]

Yeah. But the other side of this is that at that last summit, energy prices were front and center and there was talk about the fact that this is an emergency, we need to do something. And there were some countries, for instance, Poland, which was pushing for reforms. They wanted the European Commission to abandon the emissions trading scheme. They wanted big changes because they were like, listen, this is an emergency and we need to act now. Now that there's this deal on the eve of this summit, effectively, I think that changes the conversation quite a lot. And some of that argument, which might have been quite persuasive a week ago, is unlikely to be as persuasive at this one.

[B]

And I also think that because of how the G7 has gone this week with all the leaders in Evian, in France, and that's looked actually to have calm tension, particularly with Donald Trump. Actually, he's been quite positive and quite optimistic after getting this, this apparent deal that actually, that takes the sting out of things as well, doesn't it, when the leaders come to Brussels?

[A]

Definitely. And again, you know, when I was speaking with diplomats in the lead up to this G7 summit, people were really scared. They were like, oh, God, like, what's he going to do if he's on the ropes? He might lash out, we might get a beer. Ation Aberration. Aberration. An aberration be ration. But, you know, it's been pretty muted, the Donald Trump at this summer. I mean, he's barely kind of landed any punches or tried to land any punches. I think he is kind of on a high from the deal finally being made. So they've kind of dodged one.

[B]

I can't believe that nobody has said that the meeting in Evian has watered things down.

[A]

Well, they have now, Ian. Well done. Anyway, look, it's going to be an interesting Yuko and certainly this Iran stuff is going to weigh on some leaders.

[B]

Non Brussels listeners. Yuko is the jargon for the European Council.

[A]

Thanks, Ian. Translating me for the masses. Hey, Ian, we've spoken about the fact that the EU is trying to make itself less reliant on US tech.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Now there's a new social media platform in town. Yep, there is.

[B]

It's called W. W. What a ridiculous name. It's like first and four.

[A]

Well, it's the letter after X. No, it's before.

[B]

So it's basically Twitter.

[A]

It's Twitter. It's a gentler place to have your views. It's basically Twitter, but mellow. It's Twitter as it used to be is the idea.

[B]

That's quite nice, actually. I Liked it back then.

[A]

Yeah. It was nice, wasn't it? Well, so it's launching today at a launch event in Brussels and Ursula von der Leyen has said that she's going to be signing up for an account.

[B]

Her first tweet can be. Can we call them tweets?

[A]

I think there'll be posts.

[B]

Her first post can be whether she's going to run for a third term or not. That would. That would be a way to get everybody to W. That would be a way. I think they need to rebrand. It can't be called W. I think it is a bit of a mouthful, isn't it?

[A]

Too late. Ian, are you going to join?

[B]

No.

[A]

That was quick. We should tell people what the selling point is, at least. Firstly, it's going to be based in Sweden and the data is going to be hosted in Europe. So that's kind of a tick for the privacy conscious. And the idea is that everyone has to be verified. There are no bots, no trolls, actually. You're going to have to, like, do a snap of your license or your ID card or passport or whatever to prove that you are who you say you are. So the idea is basically, if you've got to prove and be the real version of you, you might not be such an asshole on the Internet.

[B]

I didn't know you were talking about me personally. I'm only very nice on the Internet.

[A]

It's not what I hear under my own name.

[B]

I'm only very nice on the Internet.

[A]

Well, yeah, you're gonna have to be nice when you're under your own name. Anyway, the idea is basically to kind of make it a kinder place where people are more thoughtful.

[B]

Well, that sounds a good idea. But I do think maybe all these things, it's always a struggle, isn't it, to get people to use new apps. You know, people have gone on Twitter because they were the first ones. It was easy. Everybody was there and gets fragmented. You kind of lose the reason for going on because not everybody is there. And that's the trouble, isn't it? You can see why it's attractive to the European Commission, who wants to make tech more European and make it more manageable in Europe.

[A]

Yeah, But I think it's like a bit hard to see this one taking off. Blue sky and Mastodon came before it. I mean, for a hot minute, threads

[B]

look like it was going to be a thing.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

I wonder if people could WhatsApp us with what they would call a European social media. Can you do better than calling something Wise.

[A]

Oh, I like that better than w. Better than Mastodon. I mean, hard to not do better than Mastodon. No offense, Mastodon. Folks, it's been all e scooters up in here.

[B]

We have messages quite a lot, haven't they?

[A]

They have. People got fired up.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Nicola from Italy said from one nick to another, I'm ready to join the crusade against this act of bubble sabotage that banning e scooters would be. They reckon it's a great form of transport and you don't wrinkle your suit on the way to work.

[B]

Why don't you? People who are supposedly grown ups, why do you have to travel like you're teenagers?

[A]

They're in a rush, Ian. Well, John from Belgium says he finds it perplexing that this is about stopping criminals because the apps actually require you to give your mobile phone details and bank payment details.

[B]

Women also have mobile phones and bank details.

[A]

Yeah, but he's saying, you know, you've got. They've got your name. They can trace you if they need to.

[B]

Well, I don't like them because I think they're just an absolute menace on the road and they're gonna get killed.

[A]

They're gonna kill.

[B]

They're all gonna get killed.

[A]

Jesus. All right, folks, well, in any case, I mean, that's about it for us today. But don't forget, that was more mild

[B]

than what people accused me of with not lighting halloumi.

[A]

Well, you deserved it. I'm gonna remind people of our 100th birthday episode. You can see us do this live in front of a studio audience. Listeners.

[B]

I'm not sure why you'd want to, but.

[A]

Well, they'll get to see all of the things that got cut today, for example. Yeah, so that'll be something. The link is in the show notes if you want to register. Don't forget also to review us, rate us, tell us what you think and say hello. Yeah, that'd be nice.

[B]

See you tomorrow.

[A]

Bye,

[B]

Sam.