EU Confidential — "What really happened after Trump blinked"

Date: January 23, 2026
Host: Sarah Wheaton (POLITICO's chief policy correspondent)
Guests: Zoya Sheftolovich, Nick Vinokur, Tim Ross

Episode Overview

This episode of EU Confidential dives into the chaotic week following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s surprise threats and subsequent reversals regarding tariffs on European countries over Greenland. Reporting from Brussels as EU leaders meet in a hastily convened summit, the POLITICO team unpacks how Trump’s erratic diplomacy has profoundly shaken European leaders, spurring a fundamental reassessment of transatlantic trust and Europe’s own preparedness. The episode features sharp analysis on the fallout, debates over Europe’s future strategic direction, and the repercussions for major ongoing diplomatic dossiers like Mercosur and Gaza.

Key Discussion Points

1. The Crisis Trigger: Trump’s Greenland and Tariff Threats

Timestamps: 00:31–03:54

• Trump announced punitive tariffs (10–25%) on EU states that backed Denmark’s claims over Greenland, causing “panic” in Brussels.
• European leaders debated retaliation versus de-escalation, with Council President Antonio Kosta convening an urgent summit.
• All eyes switched to Davos, awaiting further statements from Trump at the World Economic Forum.

“There was a flurry of diplomacy...Do you try to calm Trump down or do you show some strength?”
— Sarah Wheaton (00:45)

• At Davos, Trump delivered a “rambling, sometimes incoherent speech” and unexpectedly backed down, first from military threats over Greenland and later from the tariffs.

“In a rambling, let’s be honest, sometimes incoherent speech, Trump walked back the threat of using military force to get Greenland.”
— Sarah Wheaton (01:55)

2. Europe’s Emotional Response: Relief or Something Else?

Timestamps: 04:13–05:41

• While there was some relief about dodging the immediate crisis, the overriding sentiment was disillusionment and loss of trust in Trump’s America.

“They cannot trust or rely on Donald Trump. The trust has disappeared. And so it’s really a question of at this summit…how they’re going to live without this U.S. protector.”
— Zoya Sheftolovich (04:35)

• Tim Ross relays shock among diplomats at Trump’s public leaking of private communications, including texts from Macron and the Norwegian PM.

“How can you trust somebody who does that, who leaked messages?...Trump screen grabbed the text and then published it himself.”
— Tim Ross (05:41)

• Concerns were raised that undermining private diplomacy “blows up” how international relations usually work.

3. Searching for Europe’s Path Forward

Timestamps: 06:44–11:09

• Ursula von der Leyen’s speech in Davos cited security and competitiveness as the EU’s new priorities.
• The crisis has forced capitals to consider reforms they had long resisted, from economic modernization to greater strategic autonomy.

“We cannot continue saying no to these crucial reforms...This is a new era, a new order, brave new world for Europe.”
— Nick Vinokur (07:07)

• The threat to use the EU’s “anti-coercion instrument” (trade bazooka) almost made it to the table—revealing Europe’s willingness to retaliate, albeit avoided due to Trump’s reversal.
• Debate persisted over what actually made Trump back down: EU unity? Market reaction? Advice from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte? The uncertainty was itself a sign of the fragile dynamic.

“Was it the markets? Some refusal to follow illegal orders by American generals?...Or the fact the EU acted in unison and much faster than before and showed its biggest retaliation tools?”
— Nick Vinokur (09:58)

“The question of what did it is less important than what people think did it. There’s a new dynamic: we were tough, we stood up...We should do more of that.”
— Tim Ross (10:33)

4. Europe Faces the Gaza "Peace Board" Dilemma

Timestamps: 11:09–14:27

• Trump’s “Gaza Peace Board” initiative, inviting both EU leaders and autocrats like Putin and Lukashenko, forced EU states to consider participation at risk of further U.S. retaliation.
• Some small and/or vulnerable nations (Hungary, Bulgaria) accepted invitations, possibly under pressure; others, like Lithuania, hesitated for fear of retaliatory tariffs.

“What happened to President Macron when he snubbed the Board of Peace? He was threatened with 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne.”
— Tim Ross (12:25)

• The dilemma split the EU—accepting was politically toxic, but refusal could provoke economic retaliation.

“Ursula von der Leyen was also offered a seat...but she’s certainly not particularly keen to take it up...it’s a really difficult decision for her to make.”
— Zoya Sheftolovich (13:19)

5. Big Issues Overshadowed: The Ukraine and Mercosur Deals

Timestamps: 14:27–19:47

Ukraine

• Hopes for a major Ukraine deal (security or economic) at Davos were dashed; the “Greenland mess” dominated, pushing Ukraine off the agenda and disappointing Zelenskyy’s team.

“I was speaking with people on the ground in Ukraine House who were telling me that they were so disappointed...the oxygen went entirely out of Ukraine.”
— Zoya Sheftolovich (14:54)

• European leaders feel pressure to refocus on Ukraine as soon as the current crisis ebbs.

Mercosur

• The EU’s long-sought trade deal with South American states was derailed by a narrow European Parliament vote referring it to the top EU court, potentially freezing it for years.

“The European Parliament essentially voted...to direct this deal to the top court of the EU...It looks a bit like a joke.”
— Zoya Sheftolovich (16:34)

• Mercosur was supposed to be evidence of a reliable, rules-based Europe amid U.S. unpredictability, but internal EU divisions—especially farmer and far-right opposition—undermined it.

“If we can’t strike a deal with Latin American countries, then how can we aspire to be a real geopolitical power?”
— Nick Vinokur (17:53)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On the death of transatlantic trust:
  “The realization has dawned on leaders…they cannot trust or rely on Donald Trump. The trust has disappeared.”
  — Zoya Sheftolovich (04:35)

• On Europe’s new posture:
  “Unity and speed in responding…that process happened much faster this time in the Greenland crisis than it did previously.”
  — Nick Vinokur (20:15)

• On rising European confidence:
  “Europe has found it’s got some leverage, it’s got some options, actually, to push back if it needs to.”
  — Tim Ross (20:58)

• On feeling left out:
  “I was speaking with people on the ground in Ukraine House who were telling me that they were so disappointed.”
  — Zoya Sheftolovich (14:54)

Key Takeaways & Lessons for Europe

Timestamps: 19:47–21:31

• Europe must “stand on its own two feet” as the U.S. proves unreliable; this is now a pragmatic, not rhetorical, lesson.
• Decision-making is maturing—unity and methodical preparation are European strengths.
• The Greenland crisis may be remembered as a real tipping point for European autonomy, catalyzing reforms and bolder strategic stances.

“I think the key lesson here is that Europe has learned that it needs to stand on its own two feet…the US cannot be counted on.”
— Zoya Sheftolovich (19:47)

“A week ago…everyone was very reluctant to air the idea they might push back against the United States over Greenland…Now, they’re having a summit about it.”
— Tim Ross (20:58)

Official EU Statement Recap

Timestamps: 22:25–23:43

• The EU will continue to act with “firmness, outreach, preparedness and unity” in dealing with unpredictability from allies, and stands ready to defend its interests if threatened.

“First of all, there was unequivocal solidarity with Greenland and Denmark. Second, we also stood firmly with the six member states that were threatened with tariffs…So to sum up: firmness, outreach, preparedness, and unity. And it was effective.”
— Zoya Sheftolovich recapping summit conclusions (22:58)

Additional Insights

• The panel warns that the institutional fragmentation (as seen with Mercosur and the Gaza Board) remains a major vulnerability, even as EU unity improves in times of crisis.
• The episode ends on the note that, despite no concrete decisions, the Brussels summit may mark a historic shift in Europe’s approach to security, diplomacy, and economic power.

For a deeper dive into Davos perspectives and more on the transatlantic relationship, listeners are encouraged to check out the bonus episode mentioned at the end of the show.