Loading summary
Zoya Sheftolovich
Starting a business can seem like a daunting task unless you have a partner like Shopify.
Sarah Wheaton
They have the tools you need to.
Zoya Sheftolovich
Start and grow your business. From designing a website to marketing, to.
Sarah Wheaton
Selling and beyond, Shopify can help with everything you need. There's a reason millions of companies like.
Zoya Sheftolovich
Mattel, Heinz and Allbirds continue to trust and use them.
Sarah Wheaton
With Shopify on your side, turn your big business idea into Sign up for.
Zoya Sheftolovich
Your $1 per month trial@shopify.com specialoffer.
Sarah Wheaton
What a week. It started on a Saturday night with a threat that landed like a grenade in Brussels. Donald Trump announcing new tariffs on some European countries that backed Denmark over Greenland. Suddenly, everything went into overdrive. Like I was at a reception in Flanders and my phone was blowing up. There was a flurry of diplomacy. Capitals comparing notes, trading guesses, pounding whiskey shots. And in Brussels, a familiar question came roaring back. Do you try to calm Trump down or do you show some strength? Should Europe reach for its so called trade bazooka, economic retaliation against the United States, or try once again to sweet talk its most unpredictable ally, European Council President Antonio Kosta quickly called an emergency leaders summit. But even as that meeting was being hastily pulled together, all eyes were somewhere else in Davos. Because before Europe could decide how to respond, everyone wanted to hear what Trump himself would say next in person at the World Economic Forum. And boy, did he have something to say. In a rambling, let's be honest, sometimes incoherent speech, Trump walked back. The threat of using military force to get Greenland. We probably won't get anything unless I.
Nick Vinokur
Decide to use excessive strength and force, but I won't do that.
Sarah Wheaton
Okay, now everyone's saying, oh, good. Then, hours later, after talks involving NATO Secretary General Mark Ruta, he appeared to step back from the tariffs, too. Once again, phones were blowing up in the middle of the night. Relief, maybe. Closure? Not even close. So here we are now in Brussels, where EU leaders have gathered for a summit that was called in a moment of panic and is taking place in a moment of deep uncertainty. This isn't a summit about big decisions or announcements. It's like a crisis autopsy. What just happened? And what has Europe learned about dealing with the United States that can escalate fast, reverse even faster, and still leave allies feeling exposed? There's a sense that even without dramatic conclusions, this working dinner may turn out to be one of those meetings people look back on as a turning point. And, and that's what we're trying to make sense of today. I'm Sarah Wheaton, host of EU Confidential. I'm here in this echoey lobby of the European Council, and with me to make sense of it all are my top colleagues, Zoya Sheftolovich, Nick Vinokur and Tim Ross. All right, so we're here in Brussels by Schumann Circle at the council building, but everybody here is sort of reacting to what happened in Davos. Nick, can you recap kind of the top lines from this Alpine summit?
Nick Vinokur
Absolutely. It was dominated by Trump's threats to take over Greenland, his very aggressive speech toward the eu, and then another bombshell that came late at night when he said that he was backing down from his threat to impose tariffs against countries that had supported Greenland, which sent Europe reeling for days after.
Sarah Wheaton
And then, yeah, when he backed down. Zoya, you were up late talking to capitals, getting their take as leaders were flying here today. How are they feeling? Was it. Was it relief or something else?
Zoya Sheftolovich
I wouldn't call it relief, Sarah. I think on the one hand, look, probably to some extent, people thought, oh, thank God, we're not going to have to get into it over Greenland. I think there is a sense of relief on that count. But more broadly, there's definitely not much in the way of relief. The realization has dawned on leaders, as we reported this morning, having spoken with capitals and diplomats, they cannot trust or rely on Donald Trump. The trust has disappeared. And so it's really a question of at this summit they're getting together. It's a real bombshell kind of summit where they're having to discuss how they're going to live without this U.S. protector.
Sarah Wheaton
I mean, Tim, you've been doing some reporting along these precise lines.
Tim Ross
Yeah, I think. I mean, we heard from Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister, on his way in here that, you know, trust needs to be rebuilt. He said trust is the foundation. It always was the foundation of that transatlantic relationship. And it's almost not just about the tariff threats or the kind of bigger policies that Trump has pursued aggressively against Europe in the last few days. The thing that's really shocked and dismayed people I've been talking to diplomats and officials is leaking the text messages. And they say to me, well, how can you trust somebody who does that, who leaked messages?
Sarah Wheaton
Tell me more.
Tim Ross
Well, you'll remember, I'm sure, that Donald Trump had a message from Emmanuel Macron in which he invited him to go to Paris. And he said that, you know, he praised Trump for his incredible work and the great things he'd done on Syria. And then he said he didn't really understand what was going on. On Greenland, but he wanted to talk about it and that he hoped they could build great things together. He also offered to have a G7 meeting in Paris, which would include the Russians on the sidelines. That's not a very popular policy in many parts of Europe, but that was Macron's message. Trump screen grabbed the text and then published it himself on his social media. He did a similar thing with Mark Rutte, and he did a similar thing again with the Norwegian Prime Minister, complaining about not getting the Nobel Peace Prize, which he said was all Norway's fault. But all of this show really undermines people's sense that Donald Trump is someone they can do honest business with behind the scenes. And the other point is, like, interaction by text messages is critical for how this place works, for the whole. Whole of international diplomacy works. And Trump has just blown that up.
Sarah Wheaton
And isolated himself and just stepping back, you know, Does Trump's latest U turn offer any sense of the path forward, Nick?
Nick Vinokur
I think there's starting to be a sense of the path forward. Ursula von der Leyen kind of laid some of the groundwork for this in her speech in Davos. She talks about security, she talks about competitiveness and what Europe needs to really start doing in order to sort of change. And one of the diplomats we spoke to here really kind of summed it up where they said, we cannot continue saying no to these crucial reforms that we need to do and that we've always resisted. This is a new era, a new order, brave new world for Europe, and we're going to have to start implementing the Draghi report about economic reforms, and we're going to have to start taking our own security into our own hands in a way that we never did before.
Sarah Wheaton
But looking specifically at Trump's U turn on the Greenland tariffs, I mean, when he first announced them, we suddenly saw you countries say, okay, maybe now really is the time to bust out this trade bazooka. At first, though, we saw kind of the normal division between France, which has always been very gung ho, versus Germany, and other countries that were like, we still really like trading with the U.S. but we, we started to see some changes. Zoya, you kind of heard some early whispers of change there.
Zoya Sheftolovich
That's right. I don't actually think that there was as much division at the outset as maybe it seemed, because after that Trump tweet on Saturday night where he said that he was going to slap 10 to 25% tariffs on the countries that said they would back up Greenland. That was a real rupture moment. And I would say that that was felt pretty much universally because that was a moment where we figured out that Donald Trump could not be relied upon, that Donald Trump was a law unto himself, and that it was, in the words of one diplomat I spoke to today, Darwinism at work. And I think the fact that perhaps there was some caution in the commentary that was coming from, say, the Baltics, from Germany or some parts of the German coalition government, I don't think that necessarily indicated a disagreement in terms of what people were seeing or what they thought they should do. I think it was just that some capitals took a little longer to get there than the others. But certainly early on in the piece, I was speaking with people all day Monday, Sunday night as well, and I could see a shift in their tone. I could see a hardening of their position. And really by Monday, I got the sense that they were going to put the. But the anti coercion instrument, which is this trade bazooka that you mentioned earlier, that they were going to actually put that on the table at this yuko. Now, obviously that has not come onto the table at this yuko, because in the end, the Trump tariffs didn't come through. But I think it's quite telling that they were going to go that far.
Sarah Wheaton
So, yeah, so now we're left with this debate. Was it this stick of the anti coercion instrument, the bazooka, or was it, you know, Mark Ruta, who seems to really be the reigning Trump whisperer, the Secretary General of NATO, you know, saying, hey, everybody, maybe we should be glad that Trump is kind of taking Arctic security more seriously and leading NATO?
Nick Vinokur
Yeah, that was the sort of whodunit game that was playing out all day here. What was it that really got Trump to change his mind? Was it the markets? Was it some refusal to follow illegal orders by American generals? Or was it the fact that the, the EU actually acted in unison and much faster than before and showed its sort of biggest retaliation tools on the table? And that was kind of the reading we were getting that, well, the threat of that tool was probably having an impact on financial markets. And that may well have played into Trump's thinking.
Tim Ross
Tim I think in a way, the question of what did it is less important than the question of what people think did it. And the fact that actually there are lots of leaders as they were arriving for this summit who are really thinking, you know, we were tough, we stood up to this guy. That's made a difference. We should do more of that. And you heard that quite explicitly from Mette Frederiksen, the Danish prime minister, who's obviously a very influential voice in this. And I think that kind of dynamic is what might shape the way that European leaders think about their future relations with the United States and what they might need to do collectively as a European Union to survive, really, in this new world order or disorder.
Sarah Wheaton
Well, so, yeah, so now this new collective decision that they do still need to discuss is what to do about Trump's Gaza Peace Board. Nick, can you walk us through this debate?
Nick Vinokur
Right, so the Gaza Peace Board is another attempt by Trump to essentially reshape the global order. You know, the United nations has jurisdiction in Gaza over Gaza, and the peace board essentially supplanting that. And Trump has invited all these leaders, including autocrats like Vladimir Putin, like Lukashenko, to join this thing and also invited that European leader. So it's put them before a dilemma. Do we join this thing and sit together with Vladimir Putin and other autocrats to decide the future of Gaza, or do we try to protect what's left of the international order? And that's also what they were discussing here tonight, with an eye to basically closing the door without doing it too loudly and defending Trump yet again.
Sarah Wheaton
Our colleague Guidra Pizetskita spoke to the Lithuanian president and he seemed a bit reluctant to really rule out participating in this border peace, even though, you know, a major Lithuanian foe, Belarus, was also invited to participate, even though Russia was invited to participate. Tim, what's your sense of, of why we're still seeing these divisions?
Tim Ross
Well, look what happened to President Macron when he snubbed the Board of Peace. He was threatened with 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne. And I'm pretty sure that if you're Lithuania or another country, you don't want to suffer a similar fate. So annoying. Donald Trump is a bad policy, and a lot of people are still afraid of that.
Sarah Wheaton
Then, of course, there's some EU countries that have actively been like, sure, we're all in.
Zoya Sheftolovich
Yeah, that's right, Sarah. Hungary and Bulgaria, they're the two EU countries that have accepted that we know of. We don't know of any others. Look, Bulgaria was a surprise. I've spoken with a few people tonight, and there is a sense of like, well, what happened there? And so I think that's going to be a question that gets asked over the next few days. What did happen there? What sort of pressure was exerted? Who may have pulled strings? Hungary is hungry, and Viktor Orban is one of, if not the best bud of Donald Trump in the eu. So I think that's not as much of a surprise. Ursula von der Leyen was also offered a seat. I don't think she's ruled it out, but she's certainly not particularly keen to take it up because, you know, the implication is that then Ursula von der Leyen, if she says yes to this, would have to sit potentially alongside Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko at a table and discuss the fate of the Palestinian people and of Gaza. So I think it's a really difficult decision for her to make because, again, as Tim said, you know, it's a difficult thing to say no to Donald Trump for something like this. This was a signature policy for him and he is not going to take kindly to the people who are snubbing it. And certainly at Davos today, when this agreement was signed, it was a bit of a, like, the vibe was not great. So I think Donald Trump, who's a showman, would not have loved to have seen the lack of interest in his border peace.
Tim Ross
And just quickly, on, on the very specific point about the Board of Peace in Gaza, the EU has been really pushing for membership of this Board of Peace for a long time when it comes to the Gaza settlement. Right. And it's always saying it's the biggest humanitarian donor for the region and it has to have a voice in the day after settlement for Gaza. So now it's being offered one, but it's not quite the deal that they thought it would be.
Sarah Wheaton
And of course, we're also really looking to see what Giorgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, decides to do. She said she's still got to think about it, but she's. She's also seen as sort of a Trump ally, but still very much in the EU camp. Of course, the other thing that happened in Davos on Thursday, just before the leaders met here, was Volodymyr Zelenskyy showed up in Davos. Zoya, everybody thought actually Davos was going to be about making some sort of Ukraine deal, and that just kind of completely flew off the table.
Zoya Sheftolovich
Yeah, that's right. We have reported over the past few weeks that there was a sense among the Zelenskyy camp, but also among the Trump camp that some sort of deal would get signed in Davos, some sort of Ukraine deal with the US and there were different theories as to what that might be, whether that might be security guarantees or some sort of financial economic deal or whatnot. But there was the expectation of a deal. And then the oxygen went entirely out of Ukraine at this world Economic forum and basically, you know, I was speaking with people on the ground in Ukraine House who were telling me that they were so disappointed because they had expected, firstly, interest, secondly, more people showing up, thirdly, for Ukraine to be at the top of the agenda. And they were just really disappointed that instead this whole Greenland mess overtook everything.
Tim Ross
There's a real sense, I think, among government officials, and particularly on the defence side in European capitals, that they have to get back to Ukraine right away now that this Greenland distraction looks like it might be fading. They need to deal with that and then move on as quickly as possible to get it, get the agenda back to Ukraine. So it remains to be seen, of course, whether that will yield any sort of a peace deal. It's not remotely clear to most people that Putin himself even wants to get around the table, never mind strike an agreement.
Sarah Wheaton
So the other deal that we expected to be wrapped up this week was the Mercosur trade deal, EU's free trade agreement with a set of huge South American countries. And basically it got blown up by the European Parliament. Zoe, how did this go so wrong for Ursula von der Leyen and how are the discussions potentially going to move this forward?
Zoya Sheftolovich
The European Parliament essentially voted by the narrowest of margins to direct this deal to the top court of the eu, the Court of Justice of the European Union. And what that means is that that deal, while it's going through the processes in the, the court is on hold potentially for up to two years, which is a really monumental problem because the EU has signed this deal, the Latin American countries have agreed to it, they've been waiting for 25 years. And it looks a bit like a joke. I mean, that's the words that a diplomat used to me tonight. She said the European Parliament is a joke. They're not serious because this is a deal that was agreed at the European Council. That's something that the leaders are discussing in there tonight again, because Ursula von der Leyen does have some options for pushing that deal through provisionally, but she's going to need some buy in from the leaders because the European Parliament is making a big song and dance about it, despite the fact that the margin in the votes was 10 votes. It was nothing.
Sarah Wheaton
Nick. Mercosur was meant to be Europe's hedge against Trump's chaos. It was sort of a reaffirmation of the rules based order saying, look, Europe is a reliable trade partner, whereas obviously Trump just throws on random tariff threats when comes to it ever. Instead, kind of domestic, internal EU politics derailed it. You know, concerns about Protecting farmers, that sort of thing. What does that say about the state of Europe right now?
Nick Vinokur
Yeah, I think it says how fragile this sort of agenda is, that it can be held hostage at any minute by one interest group or another. And in this case, it's farmers. It's far right politicians who are, you know, digging in their heels against this thing. Not everybody is swept up in this geopolitical moment where Europe needs to start to march in the same direction. And that was really the message from the leaders from the European Commission throughout the day saying, guys, you know, it's really time for us to all pull in the same direction. And if we can't strike a deal with Latin American countries, then then how can we aspire to be a real geopolitical power? I will say they're distinguishing the Mercosur deal, which has a history which is very controversial, from other trade deals like the India trade deal. And the Commission is flying off to India in coming days to try to ink that deal. And they're saying, well, the prospects are looking better there. So you're still getting very bullish messages from the European Commission about their capacity to strike these deals, get them through, maybe even impose them over the will of the European Parliament.
Sarah Wheaton
Ironically, we did actually see a big display of European unity in the European Parliament in sinking this thing, because even as Zoya notes that it was very narrow, we ultimately saw not only the longtime opponents from the far right and the far left opposing it, but also more centrist politicians from countries like Spain that have been huge supporters because they're just so obsessed with not angering farmers. And concerns about them being, you know, entranced by the far right are leading them to kind of dive in. Last question. Zoya, you have noted that even though we're not really expecting a concrete outcome from the summit, we might all look back and say, okay, this was like, really a tipping point for Europe. What types of lessons do you think could potentially emerge? And I'll be sending that to each of you.
Zoya Sheftolovich
I think the key lesson here is that Europe has learned that it needs to stand on its own two feet. And I think clearly the US Cannot be counted on. Europe understands that now. So it's now a question of what are the politicians? What are the people who are meeting in that room behind those closed doors, behind all those flags? What are they going to do about it? Will they get on the same page? Will they make some difficult decisions that might anger some of their home voters for the sake of ensuring security in the long term?
Nick Vinokur
I think another of the lesson is about process and, and how we manage these crises. And a lot of the talk today was, well, we had the experience of this summer with the EU US Trade deal, where European leaders were very divided, kind of hesitant about how to go ahead. And they say, well, we now have a much more mature approach to these things, where we come to the same conclusions. Europe is not escalating, raising the ante, threatening tariffs, but it is methodically putting positions forward and saying, we will use this trade bazooka if you continue. And that process happened much faster this time in the Greenland crisis than it did previously. And that seems to be a big lesson. Unity and speed in responding.
Tim Ross
And I think following on from Nick, really. But I feel like there's a real sense that Europe has found it's got some leverage, it's got some options, actually, to push back if it needs to. A week ago, when I was talking to people before Trump threatened tariffs against these European countries over Greenland, everyone was kind of very reluctant to air the idea they might push back against the United States over Greenland. They were whispering it. They were saying, well, you know, we've got lots and lots of military bases, we've got trade weapons we can use, but we don't want to talk about that now. They're having a summit about it.
Sarah Wheaton
All right, Tim, Nick Zoya, thanks so much for joining me. I'll let you get back to your deadlines.
Tim Ross
Thanks a lot.
Nick Vinokur
Thanks for having us.
Zoya Sheftolovich
Cheers.
Sarah Wheaton
All right, we're still here in the Eustace Lipsius building, and I'm told the working dinner next door has just wrapped up. I hope those leaders enjoyed there. As we reported, scallops in a walnut and curry crust. Down here in the press area, it's been a different menu. Cookies that an editor brought from the caf floor, a lot of sugar, a lot of caffeine, maybe some cigarettes. But the discussions are now over, and we'll hear from Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Antonio Costa, who are about to wrap up the evening with a press conference. So we'll let them have the final word.
Zoya Sheftolovich
Ah, almost one o'.
Tim Ross
Clock.
Nick Vinokur
Good evening. The European Union and the United States have long been partners and allies. We believe that relationships between partners and allies should be managed in the cordial and respectful way. At the same time, the European Union will continue to stand up for its interests and will defend itself, its member states, its citizens and its companies.
Zoya Sheftolovich
Madam President, tonight we drew the lessons of our collective strategy. First of all, there was unequivocal solidarity with Greenland and Denmark. Second, we also stood firmly with the six member states that were threatened with tariffs. We engaged very actively with the United States on various levels and the fourth part, the point was that we are well prepared with trade countermeasures and non tariff instruments if tariffs would have been applied. So to sum up firmness, outreach, preparedness and unity. And it was effective. So going forward we should maintain this very approach.
Sarah Wheaton
And that's it for this week of EU Confidential. If you want more on how this all looked from Davos, we also dropped a bonus episode. Earlier this week, Ann McAlvoy spoke with senior politicians on the ground there, taking the pulse of the transatlantic relationship at a pretty raw moment. You'll find that episode in our feed. If you like the show, please subscribe, rate us and leave a review. And as always, you can write to us at podcastolitico EU with ideas for guests or topics you think we should be covering. Thanks to Deanna Sterris, our senior Audio producer. I'm Sarah Wheaton. See you next week.
Date: January 23, 2026
Host: Sarah Wheaton (POLITICO's chief policy correspondent)
Guests: Zoya Sheftolovich, Nick Vinokur, Tim Ross
This episode of EU Confidential dives into the chaotic week following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s surprise threats and subsequent reversals regarding tariffs on European countries over Greenland. Reporting from Brussels as EU leaders meet in a hastily convened summit, the POLITICO team unpacks how Trump’s erratic diplomacy has profoundly shaken European leaders, spurring a fundamental reassessment of transatlantic trust and Europe’s own preparedness. The episode features sharp analysis on the fallout, debates over Europe’s future strategic direction, and the repercussions for major ongoing diplomatic dossiers like Mercosur and Gaza.
Timestamps: 00:31–03:54
“There was a flurry of diplomacy...Do you try to calm Trump down or do you show some strength?”
— Sarah Wheaton (00:45)
“In a rambling, let’s be honest, sometimes incoherent speech, Trump walked back the threat of using military force to get Greenland.”
— Sarah Wheaton (01:55)
Timestamps: 04:13–05:41
“They cannot trust or rely on Donald Trump. The trust has disappeared. And so it’s really a question of at this summit…how they’re going to live without this U.S. protector.”
— Zoya Sheftolovich (04:35)
“How can you trust somebody who does that, who leaked messages?...Trump screen grabbed the text and then published it himself.”
— Tim Ross (05:41)
Timestamps: 06:44–11:09
“We cannot continue saying no to these crucial reforms...This is a new era, a new order, brave new world for Europe.”
— Nick Vinokur (07:07)
“Was it the markets? Some refusal to follow illegal orders by American generals?...Or the fact the EU acted in unison and much faster than before and showed its biggest retaliation tools?”
— Nick Vinokur (09:58)
“The question of what did it is less important than what people think did it. There’s a new dynamic: we were tough, we stood up...We should do more of that.”
— Tim Ross (10:33)
Timestamps: 11:09–14:27
“What happened to President Macron when he snubbed the Board of Peace? He was threatened with 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne.”
— Tim Ross (12:25)
“Ursula von der Leyen was also offered a seat...but she’s certainly not particularly keen to take it up...it’s a really difficult decision for her to make.”
— Zoya Sheftolovich (13:19)
Timestamps: 14:27–19:47
“I was speaking with people on the ground in Ukraine House who were telling me that they were so disappointed...the oxygen went entirely out of Ukraine.”
— Zoya Sheftolovich (14:54)
“The European Parliament essentially voted...to direct this deal to the top court of the EU...It looks a bit like a joke.”
— Zoya Sheftolovich (16:34)
“If we can’t strike a deal with Latin American countries, then how can we aspire to be a real geopolitical power?”
— Nick Vinokur (17:53)
On the death of transatlantic trust:
“The realization has dawned on leaders…they cannot trust or rely on Donald Trump. The trust has disappeared.”
— Zoya Sheftolovich (04:35)
On Europe’s new posture:
“Unity and speed in responding…that process happened much faster this time in the Greenland crisis than it did previously.”
— Nick Vinokur (20:15)
On rising European confidence:
“Europe has found it’s got some leverage, it’s got some options, actually, to push back if it needs to.”
— Tim Ross (20:58)
On feeling left out:
“I was speaking with people on the ground in Ukraine House who were telling me that they were so disappointed.”
— Zoya Sheftolovich (14:54)
Timestamps: 19:47–21:31
“I think the key lesson here is that Europe has learned that it needs to stand on its own two feet…the US cannot be counted on.”
— Zoya Sheftolovich (19:47)
“A week ago…everyone was very reluctant to air the idea they might push back against the United States over Greenland…Now, they’re having a summit about it.”
— Tim Ross (20:58)
Timestamps: 22:25–23:43
“First of all, there was unequivocal solidarity with Greenland and Denmark. Second, we also stood firmly with the six member states that were threatened with tariffs…So to sum up: firmness, outreach, preparedness, and unity. And it was effective.”
— Zoya Sheftolovich recapping summit conclusions (22:58)
For a deeper dive into Davos perspectives and more on the transatlantic relationship, listeners are encouraged to check out the bonus episode mentioned at the end of the show.