EU Confidential: Whose world is it now? Trump, power and Europe
POLITICO Europe | Episode aired January 9, 2026
Host: Sarah Wheaton
Panelists: Alison Hoffman, Nick Winniker, Eva Hartog, Bartosz Brzezinski
Episode Overview
This episode dissects a dramatic start to 2026, as Donald Trump’s US special forces operation toppled and captured Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. The move sent shockwaves through Europe, resurrecting anxieties about American hard power, spheres of influence, and the fragility of the current international order. The panel delves into European, Russian, and American reactions; possible implications for Greenland, Ukraine, and MERCOSUR; and what Trump’s bold actions signal for EU strategy and global norms.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Global Order in 2026: “Disordered,” “Volatile,” and “Hallucinatory”
[03:20–03:38]
- The panel describes the new year’s world order with words like “volatile” (Eva Hartog), “unraveling” (Bartosz Brzezinski), “historic” (Nick Winniker), “disordered” (Alison Hoffman), and, as Sarah Wheaton summarizes: “hallucinant” (hallucinatory in French).
- Sets the tone for the episode’s focus on unpredictability and shifting power.
“That photo of Venezuelan leader Nicola Maduro holding his water bottle and blindfolded on a plane—[it] snapped everyone out of holiday mode.” – Sarah Wheaton [03:38]
2. The Venezuela Operation: Imposing American Power and Unanswered Questions
[04:05–07:31]
- Maduro & Wife Captured: Now in unglamorous Brooklyn detention under narco-terrorism charges (not challenging detention yet).
- Situation in Caracas: Crackdown underway, confusion over succession (Delcy Rodriguez in power), uncertainty over US next steps.
- Trump’s Motives: Officially about drugs, but rhetoric quickly pivots to US access to Venezuelan oil and asserting hemispheric dominance.
- Secretive Planning: Operation was so secretive even congressional leaders were left out, paralleling bin Laden raid secrecy.
- Great Power Signaling: “It was such a wild show of force…can’t discount how much it was intended to rattle other leaders, particularly Putin and Xi Jinping.” – Alison Hoffman [07:10]
Notable Quote:
“Seizing the leader of another country, even somebody who Trump doesn’t regard as legitimate, is really a huge move.” – Alison Hoffman [06:44]
3. Moscow's Facedown: Silence and Envy
[07:31–11:21]
- Official Kremlin Response: Notably silent, likely to not provoke Trump or jeopardize expectations on Ukraine.
- 'Z Community' Reaction: Russian military bloggers frustrated, envious—Trump achieved via force what Putin’s failed to do in Ukraine.
- Sphere of Influence Dynamics: US action reframes “might makes right” doctrine, but exposes Russia’s inability to project power even in its own supposed or desired spheres of influence.
Notable Quote:
“They feel like Trump just basically did what Putin should have done four years ago...remove a head of government in this blitzkrieg and hasn’t managed to do for four years.” – Eva Hartog [09:13]
- Russian Weakness Displayed Globally: Failures in Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh, and now Venezuela show that Putin can’t rescue allies.
4. European Response: Shock, Caution, and Dread Over Expansion
[13:35–16:18]
- Muted, Awkward Statements: Most initial European statements tepid; official lines note relief at Maduro’s removal, but express unease about U.S. disregard for international law.
- Fear of Spillover: Europeans hoped Venezuela would stay a Western Hemisphere issue; hopes dashed as a Trump aide tweets US flag over Greenland, triggering panic over future American “spheres of influence” claims closer to home.
“The initial reaction was basically, this is not our problem. Right? ... And don’t forget that the Europeans tried to kind of attach themselves to Trump’s anti-drug crusade in Venezuela.” – Nick Winniker [13:47]
5. Greenland as the Next Flashpoint
[17:29–20:47]
- New Crisis, Diplomatic Eggshells: Europeans hoped to keep US cooperation on Ukraine but were thrown off by sabre-rattling over US interest in purchasing Greenland.
- EU Response: Public expressions of solidarity with Denmark by Nordic, Baltic states; EU leveraging trade negotiations and financial aid as possible tools of leverage—but no united, tough stance against the US.
“You also have the money...what we’re doing for Greenland, we’re already paying a great deal...You could also leverage the military aspect...stationing European troops on Greenland. All these things could be done.” – Nick Winniker [19:19]
- No Appetite for Direct Confrontation: No EU leader has pledged to defend Greenland militarily against the US.
- Grand Bargain Talk: Speculation that EU might bargain US involvement in Ukraine for leeway over Greenland—“but certainly not a full confrontation.”
6. MERCOSUR and Europe’s ‘Foothold’ in Latin America
[20:47–23:53]
- Deal at Geopolitical Crossroads: Historic trade agreement with South America, long contentious, now possibly strategic vis-à-vis US actions in Venezuela.
- Leaders Still Frame as Economic, Not Geo-strategic: Reluctance to provoke Trump or appear to meddle in his ‘sphere’; EU seeks a stable “foothold” but recognizes it lacks a true “stronghold”.
“European leaders already have farmers on their back. The last thing they want is to have Trump looking at this trade deal and saying, wait a minute, you’re meddling with my sphere of influence...” – Bartosz Brzezinski [22:33]
7. Washington's View: Republican Splintering and Ideology in the White House
[23:53–27:36]
- Congressional Response: Little criticism of Venezuela operation, more dissent over Greenland—fractures between Trump and former allies (e.g., Marjorie Taylor Greene flips on “America First”).
- Ideology in the West Wing: Stephen Miller’s position: it’s a raw battle of strength, not rules or alliances; Trump unpredictably vacillates between direct control and plausible deniability.
- Domestic Politics at Play: With midterms looming and majority shrinking, Republicans divided and governance rocky. Democrats may campaign on focusing on “Columbus rather than Caracas.” (Rahm Emanuel).
Notable Moment:
“Every day is a day for everybody to figure out how to impress Trump and convince him that whatever they want is also in his interest. And that’s a very tiring game for anybody to play.” – Alison Hoffman [34:21]
8. Europe’s Ukraine Strategy & Security Guarantees
[27:36–29:14]
- Coalition of the Willing: Europeans offer “legally binding” security guarantees to Ukraine, but US support is non-committal, not put in writing.
- European Shift: EU now shouldering more direct responsibility for Ukraine’s security, with minimal US backstop.
“Effectively, Ukraine is now more or less fully Europe’s problem.”—Nick Winniker [28:36]
- In Poland: Confidence Trump won’t withdraw troops, focus remains on the threat from Russia and war in Ukraine, not on Greenland or Venezuela.
9. Russian Perceptions of European Security Moves
[30:00–30:58]
- On Telegram/’Z’ circles: No real concern about European guarantees; Europe depicted paradoxically as weak, chaotic and also manipulative, “masterminding” plots like Ukraine.
- Russian official stance: Foreign boots near the border or in Ukraine are red lines; details of EU security guarantees dismissed.
“Europe has always been seen as weak...On the other hand, Europe is presented as very strong and evil and a force to be fought.” – Eva Hartog [30:30]
10. Spheres of Influence: Does Europe Have a Strategy?
[31:14–35:14]
- Mental Shift in Europe: 2025 saw “humiliations”; 2026 brings “awakening”—but EU still faces structural weaknesses in responding to America’s realpolitik style.
- Prospect of More Humiliations: Europe lacks leverage and unity; the Trump administration isn’t into deals, but acts as “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” (Nick Winniker paraphrasing Thucydides) [32:24]
- Trump Means It: When he calls Europe “weak,” he acts accordingly, as seen in both Venezuela and Greenland situations.
- Ad Hoc, Unpredictable Diplomacy: No handshake or deal is final; Trump’s approach forces others to constantly seek his favor and alignment.
“No deal is ever a final deal. And we’ve seen that with all of these trade agreements that were agreed over the summer, there’s no paper following them up. So a handshake deal is only as good as the handshake, and then it’s actually still an ongoing negotiation.” – Alison Hoffman [34:10]
Memorable Quotes & Notable Moments
- “Seizing the leader of another country, even somebody who Trump doesn’t regard as legitimate, is really a huge move.” – Alison Hoffman [06:44]
- “They feel like Trump just basically did what Putin should have done four years ago…” – Eva Hartog [09:13]
- “The initial reaction was basically, this is not our problem... It’s a fait accompli.” – Nick Winniker [13:51]
- “Europe wants to maintain a foothold on the continent, but it knows it’s not able to kind of maintain a stronghold.” – Bartosz Brzezinski [23:30]
- “Every day is a day for everybody to figure out how to impress Trump and convince him that whatever they want is also in his interest.” – Alison Hoffman [34:21]
Timestamps for Important Segments
- Maduro's capture and U.S. motives: [04:05–07:31]
- Russian & Kremlin reaction breakdown: [07:31–11:21]
- European capitals' initial response: [13:35–16:18]
- Greenland flashpoint and EU leverage: [17:29–20:47]
- MERCOSUR deal and spheres of influence: [20:47–23:53]
- US politics, the House, and the West Wing: [23:53–27:36]
- Ukraine security guarantees: [27:36–29:14]
- Poland’s perspective: [29:14–30:00]
- Russian (Telegram) view on Europe & security: [30:00–30:58]
- Europe’s strategy and transatlantic perspective: [31:14–35:14]
Tone & Style
The panel retains a conversational, occasionally wry tone, reflecting both astonishment and fatigue with the year’s breakneck news cycle. Sarah Wheaton moderates with brisk clarity, often injecting dry humor and keeping the discussion focused on the implications for Europe amid American unpredictability.
Conclusion
The episode encapsulates a Europe unsettled by abrupt American assertiveness under Trump. With new geopolitical fault lines laid bare—from Caracas to Greenland and beyond—Europe gropes for strategy, struggling to move beyond careful language and slow process to meaningful leverage on the world stage. The show underscores a world order upended and a transatlantic relationship fundamentally altered, leaving listeners with the sense that, in 2026, every certainty in international affairs is up for grabs.