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Brussels Playbook Podcast
Why are drones suddenly terrifying Europe?
00:16:20
With drone alerts, emergency shelters and fighter jets over the Baltics, Europe’s security fears suddenly feel much less theoretical at the GLOBSEC forum in Prague.
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- [00:02]
A
Ready to soundtrack your summer with Red Bull Summer All Day Play. You choose a playlist that fits your summer vibe the best. Are you a festival fanatic, a deep end dj, a road dog, or a trail mixer? Just add a song to your chosen playlist and put your summer on track. Red Bull Summer All Day Play. Red Bull gives you wings. Visit Red Bull.com BrightSummerAhead to learn more. See you this summer. Good morning. It's Thursday, May 21, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is. Well, I'm actually in Prague today for the Glob Sec Forum and the vibe here is jittery. Europe's defense and security crowd is gathering here today for three days of talks about war, deterrence, and a continent that feels a lot less safe without the big friend from across the Atlantic watching its back. A bunch of us from Politico are here too, so come say hi if you're in Prague. Also on the pod, Berlin is losing patience with the EU's enlargement. Delays and top level roles in the EU are up for grabs next year and the jostling has already begun. I'm Zoya Sheftalovic and with me here in Prague is our chief foreign affairs correspondent, Nick Finnicker. Hey, Nick.
- [01:22]
B
Hey, Zoya.
- [01:23]
A
I've missed the past couple of podcasts because I've been sick. I A few people here in Prague have been telling me that the cure to what ails me is absinthe.
- [01:32]
B
Yeah, I see they're talking. I read Medical Solution and I misread it as Medieval solution and I think that might be more appropriate. But you can always try it.
- [01:41]
A
No thank you. I am sticking clear away from anything green this week. Maybe I'll try SMA instead, which is, I think fried cheese, actually. That is really medicinal, I think, for me. All right, Nick, let's get to something that's likely going to be hanging over all of our conversations here in Prague at this Globe Sex Forum. It's meant to be about deterrence and NATO readiness and Europe preparing for a more dangerous and isolated world. But over the past few days, including yesterday, as people were arriving here in Prague, things really started to feel much more real with a bunch of drone incursions from Ukraine spilling over into the Baltics into EU territory.
- [02:23]
B
Yeah, I mean, exactly. We've had Lithuania send emergency alerts to phones in Vilnius because of drone activity near the border with Belarus. Residents hope to seek shelter. NATO jets scrambled, the airport shut down temporarily. The President and Prime Minister moved to
- [02:41]
A
safe locations this is, like, really serious stuff. We're not messing around anymore. Right. And Latvia's president, Edgar Zrinkovitz, he was actually meant to be on a panel with you on Friday, and he's pulled out because of these drones, Right?
- [02:54]
B
Yeah. And it morphed into a political crisis in Latvia. We saw the Prime Minister having to resign partly over these drone incursions. There are questions swirling about air defense readiness. And this is after a couple of drones hit a fuel storage facility in the east of the country, causing the Defense Minister to resign and the Prime Minister, Evica Selinya, stepping down a few days later. So this is a really issue in the Baltics, and it's not just Latvia. We talked about Lithuania. Estonia shot down a drone earlier this week. So, you know, at first, these were unfortunate accidents or a technical spillover, but we're now talking about them kind of in new terms.
- [03:37]
A
Yeah. And part of the issue is, is that these are Ukrainian drones. And so there have been questions asked about that. Now, Ukraine Kyiv says, this is not us. We're not aiming drones, obviously, at our friends in the Baltics. They've said that what's happening is that the Russians actually jamming or intercepting drones and GPS and are essentially directing or redirecting these drones into EU territory. So that's been kind of the explanation given, and the Commission has backed up that as well. And Belarus is also in the frame for some of this. And basically, Commission President Ursula von der Line, she said that Russia's threats against the Baltics are completely unacceptable. And Donald Tusk, who's the Polish Prime Minister, he said that there needed to be a firm reaction from NATO. So this is pretty serious stuff.
- [04:24]
B
Yeah. And we can see how the rhetoric is kind of ramping up. 1. I mean, this would fit into the category of hybrid activity that we hear about all the time. But of course, there's a kinetic aspect with drones exploding. It's quite worrying. Defense Commissioner Andreas Kabilius, himself, Lithuanian, also spoke up. He said Russia's deliberately trying to intimidate countries on NATO's eastern flank. And he also says it's a sign that Ukraine is starting to prevail in this conflict and that Russia is getting a lot more nervous.
- [04:55]
A
Yeah. And, Nick, I actually saw some reports from yesterday saying that Lithuanian children had been asked in their classrooms to hide under desks. And it actually brought me back to when I was a school kid in the 80s in Ukraine, and we had simulated drills during the Cold War for, like, American nukes coming to get us. So it really is kind of a back to the future moment right now.
- [05:17]
B
Absolutely. And of course it's a worrying development because it means that if they can be in the Baltics, they can be further than that. And that's a concern for the whole region. This is definitely going to be a conversation here in Prague.
- [05:32]
A
Yeah, it's interesting because one of the things that we're seeing here on the ground in Prague is the extent to which Ukraine's role has kind of changed over the course of this war. Because at the beginning of the conflict, I remember all of those scenes of troops from elsewhere trying to teach Ukrainians how to use weaponry, et cetera. Now what we're seeing is that the Germans are coming to Ukraine and saying, hey, teach us how to do this. The Baltics are saying, hey, help us. So I think Ukraine has shifted from like this recipient of assistance of Western kind of ingenuity to a provider of expertise how to like shoot down drones because they've been living with this for four years. So it's a really interesting flip of the narrative.
- [06:09]
B
Yeah, absolutely. And I think we've seen that role reversal in some of the NATO exercises as well, where Ukrainian troops are kind of schooling the NATO troops.
- [06:18]
A
Yeah. And President Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, he said that Ukraine is going to be sending air defense experts to Latvia to help. So there you have it, folks. If you're in the Baltics or Finland or any one of those across border regions next to Belarus or Russia or Ukraine, let us know if you're seeing or hearing anything, if you've seen any drones and how it makes you feel that this war is really seeming to hit home even more now than it has before, send us a voice note. Our link is in the show. Notes. Well, listeners, if you want to hear more from us at Globe Sec, please do tune in to our live stream. It's on Politico. EU we're going to be rolling coverage from on the ground here, all the panels from around about, well now ish to midday Saturday. So it's going to be huge. Nick and I are both going to be big presences. So please do watch. Nick. Let's stay with the broader question of Europe's future and talk EU enlargement. Now, we've been talking about this one on the pod for months since we started really. But now we're hearing that German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz is apparently trying to push enlargement really back onto the EU agenda in a much more serious.
- [07:29]
B
Yeah, so this is the subject of a letter we obtained from The Chancellor to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa. And the basic message is we need to put enlargement back on the leader's agenda. And what we hear is that the German officials are becoming a little bit concerned that enlargement keeps being touted as something the leaders are going to discuss and then falling off the agenda. So this happened at a recent retreat in Oldenbeesen in Belgium. It was supposed to be on the agenda in Nicosia in Cyprus when they last met for their informal gathering, wasn't discussed there. And now it was supposed to be discussed at the upcoming council in June. And so far it isn't appearing on the agenda. The Germans are saying this is a major geopolitical tool and concern for the European Union. We need to start talking about this. Another concern, there's a Western Balkan summit coming up in a few weeks time and they're saying, well, we need to have something to talk about there, something concrete.
- [08:33]
A
Yeah. And this is basically this debate that's been happening because there hasn't been a new EU country to join the EU since we had the last member, Croatia, join back in 2013. So it's been a long time between drinks and we've got loads of countries that are in the EU waiting room, some of them more advanced than others. But all of these countries are being kept waiting ultimately, because the appetite in several capitals, chiefly Paris, has been to not expand the club. They're saying, look, we don't want to add more members, particularly if those members are of that kind of lower economic firepower. So that's kind of the backdrop against all of this. But Germany now is saying, hurry up, we've got to actually deliver, because otherwise it's going to look like we're all talk, no action.
- [09:17]
B
Exactly. And they named a number of risks here that for these countries, they can lose faith in the process. They can turn to other centers of power like Russia or China. And for Ukraine, this is a key part of their peace negotiations. If the President is going to sell a peace deal with Russia, he has to have a carrot. He has to have something appealing to offer to the Ukrainian voters. The most appealing thing is EU membership. So Germany is kind of getting creative here with some proposals about what halfway membership could look like, because they all say it's unlikely Ukraine would become a full member of the EU by 2027. But they're offering other things. They're offering something called associate membership. And this would be kind of an in between stage where Ukraine would get certain Rights, such as having its own commissioner around the college table.
- [10:10]
A
This one really surprised me because we've been talking about various models for Ukraine to kind of get soft entry into the eu, shall we say? And this is the first time I've heard. But the idea of like, okay, they can have a commissioner, they can have MEPs, they just won't be able to vote yet.
- [10:26]
B
Yeah. So it's also representation at the leaders gathering, which frankly is already more or less the case, since Zelenskyy is often at those yukos. But the one that kind of surprised me was that they could have their own lawmakers. So MEPs in the parliament who would be watching and learning the ropes of the EU in time for. For them to join fully.
- [10:49]
A
So they would be observer MEPs rather than voting and making the legislation.
- [10:54]
B
So they wouldn't be allowed to vote, but they would be allowed to speak. And then there's another distinction which would be for some of those other candidate countries, which could be simply observer status. So, for example, a presence at the Foreign Affairs Council, observing note taking, but not speaking. And that would be a distinction with Ukraine, which have a slightly more elevated status there.
- [11:14]
A
That's super interesting. So basically there's just a bunch of ideas that are floating around right now. Lots of countries are putting out papers where they're making various suggestions because I think there is a general acceptance of, well, Europe cannot keep stringing countries along and pretending that they can join the EU when actually there's no intention to allow them in.
- [11:32]
B
Yeah, absolutely. And there's also the bigger geopolitical picture. And, you know, the officials briefing on this were very clear in saying, you know, we're in a world, we're in a competition system, competition with China, with the United States, Russia. And enlargement is one of our major geopolitical tools. And if we don't use it, obviously it doesn't matter, it doesn't have an effect. So they're keen to really kind of get this speaking. Whether other countries will embrace this, will be willing to put it on the agenda and really talk seriously about it. We'll see.
- [12:11]
A
For a bit of a change of pace. Let's talk personnel files. We've got some already interesting moves that are happening, happening on that EU level. The EU's biggest jobs, the European Council presidency and the European Parliament presidency. They are meant to be up for grabs next year. And there was going to be a bunch of political. In fact, there is still going to be a bunch of political. But it's looking like the current holders of those jobs are going to keep on keeping on. Our colleague Gabriel Gavin reports that European Council President Antonio Kosher is probably going to be reelected in about six months time. And he's the block's most powerful high profile socialist politician.
- [12:49]
B
Yep. And that's great news for Costa himself, but it is a problem for European People's Party chief Manfred Weber, who had a plan to sort of cement the party's control over the institutions. And his plan had to do with Parliament President Roberta Metsola, who's also part of the EPP seeking an unprecedented third term. And the convention is that she should hand over to a socialist successor.
- [13:13]
A
Yeah, and there's like a swap that happens. So currently the Socialists have the council presidency and the EPP has the commission and Parliament presidencies. And the idea is the EPP is the biggest party in the European Parliament in the EU election, so they get to have the most jobs. And the Socialists is a deal with the Socialists that the job swaps between the Socialists and the epp, the center. Right. But if Antonio Costa stays in post, that means Roberto Mazzola will also stay in post, and that means that the EPP doesn't get to get the council presidency.
- [13:44]
B
Yeah, exactly. And the issue with this plan is that everyone seems to quite like Costa, even people from the EPP faction. One official who spoke to Gabriel said, we're all very happy with the one day European Councils. This was one of Costa's pledges when he came in to have a one day gathering of EU leaders.
- [14:02]
A
Yeah, because normally they would go on and on and the leaders would come back and it would be a whole palaver. 48 hours of misery for everyone.
- [14:09]
B
Exactly. The first famous two shirters or three shirt councils. Those are a thing of the past. Whether we're getting as much done at those councils as before is another question. But he's got another official from the EPP saying it would be madness to oust a hardworking, respected and admired council president at a time of crisis.
- [14:30]
A
What is this, the Costa Love Festival?
- [14:35]
B
It certainly seems knowing.
- [14:43]
A
Hey, Nick. Yesterday on the pod, while I was in bed sick, the good people, Ian and Katie, were having a bunch of fun talking about peacocks. I don't know if you heard their peacock tales. I was listening yesterday morning and the sound of the screeching peacock was one way to wake up. So I'll tell you that much. Well, we had one of our listeners, John, write in about a phenomenon he's noticed in the Belgian countryside, which is right outside of Brazil. Russell's apparently there are signs up everywhere advertising peacocks for sale. Do you want a peacock?
- [15:15]
B
And he writes in and he says, I've often wondered who buys them, and I think you'd be onto something with such an investigation. So we got our work cut out for us,
- [15:26]
A
folks. That's about it from us today. And Monday is a public holiday in Belgium, so we'll be back on Tuesday. But do make sure you tune in tomorrow to the Brussels Playbook Weekender. You're going to be hearing from Anne McAvoy, who's also here in Prague, and she'll be speaking to some very interesting people. Anyway, that's it from us. Subscribe like us. Rate us. Let us know what you think. Send us more. Mail more letters to my office. I would love that. Cheerio.