Why tensions are high between Poland and Ukraine

Summary

Brussels Playbook Podcast — June 22, 2026

Episode Theme: Why Tensions Are High Between Poland and Ukraine

Overview

In today’s episode, host Zoya Sheftalovich is joined by chief foreign affairs correspondent Nick Vinicour to discuss major issues shaping the day in Brussels, focusing on the upcoming Irish presidency of the EU Council, challenges with the EU’s long-term budget negotiations, the debate around EU enlargement, and escalating diplomatic tensions between Poland and Ukraine. Rounding off the episode, the team chats about the ongoing European heatwave.

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1. Ireland’s Upcoming EU Council Presidency: Priorities and Challenges

Key Segment: [01:11–06:13]

• Ireland’s Role: Ireland takes the helm of the EU Council on July 1, with a daunting docket, most prominently the negotiation of the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF)—the bloc’s long-term budget for 2028–2034.
• Compressed Timeline:
  • Summer recesses mean real work begins in September, giving Ireland only a few intense months to broker consensus before key elections in several EU member states.

Quote:
“It’s a pretty tight timeline for them to get, you know, a budget across the line.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [01:52]

Interview with Thomas Byrne, Irish Europe Minister ([03:08+])

• Navigating Deadlock:
  • Ireland aims to be an “honest broker”, recognizing its unique position as a recent net beneficiary, now a net contributor to the EU budget.
• Strategy:
  • Byrne acknowledges the need for difficult moments in negotiations:
    “Every negotiation needs a moment… where the sparks fly.” — Thomas Byrne [03:10]
  • Committed to individual outreach with EU General Affairs Ministers to identify, and eventually bridge, countries’ red lines.
• Work Ethic:
  • On the workload:
    “Ireland is prepared to do the work and we work every day of the year if we have to.” — Thomas Byrne [05:07]
• Election Dynamics:
  • Some major countries, especially France, are happy to put off the MFF, due to their own upcoming election; however, Ireland signals intent to push forward for progress within 2026.

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2. EU Enlargement: Momentum and Aspirations

Key Segment: [05:43–07:42]

• Priority: Enlargement is on par with the budget as a strategic focus for Ireland.
• Historic Parallel:
  • The last accession (Croatia, 2013) also came under an Irish presidency.
• Montenegro Front-Runner:
  • Ireland hopes to conclude Montenegro’s accession talks this year, setting a positive signal for other candidate states:
    “Our strategy during the presidency will be to move forward the talks on a technical level… and when countries meet the benchmarks, then we will bring them to council to move them forward.” — Thomas Byrne [06:31]
• Wider Interest in EU:
  • Byrne highlights interest from non-European countries (e.g., Canada) in becoming closer to the EU, even without full membership.

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3. Growing Tensions: Poland and Ukraine ([07:42–12:45])

Key Discussion Points:

• Diplomatic Spat:
  • Poland’s President Karol Nowrotsky (far-right Law and Justice) stripped Zelensky of Poland’s highest honor, the Order of the White Eagle, following Ukraine’s decision to name a new military unit after the WWII-era Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA).
  • The UPA is seen in Ukraine as nationalist heroes but remembered in Poland for ethnic cleansing against Poles during WWII—a deeply divisive historical legacy:
    “There is a bit of a difference in perception there.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [09:21]
• Internal Polish Politics:
  • The president’s move doesn’t necessarily reflect the position of the centrist government under Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Instead, it’s part of an ongoing internal political battle as Law and Justice tries to claw back support before next year's elections.
• Attempts at Reconciliation:
  • Ukraine’s Foreign Minister working with Poland to exhume and bury wartime victims as a reconciliatory gesture; however, sensitivities remain high on both sides.

Quote:
“Ukraine has attempted to take some steps towards recognizing the toll on Poland... but it’s still a pretty sensitive subject on both sides, obviously.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [10:58]

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4. Ukraine’s EU Accession: Momentum vs. Roadblocks ([10:58–13:16])

• Accession Talks:
  • Ukraine opened its first negotiation cluster with the EU, aiming to rapidly move through all clusters before the summer break.
• Hungary’s Obstruction:
  • At last week’s summit, Hungary led a camp of states resisting quick progress for Ukraine. Debates centered on wording in the summit conclusions regarding the timing and “fast-tracking” of negotiations.
  • Hungary’s stance:
    “Fast tracking another country at this moment would undermine the European Union’s credibility.” — Magyar (Hungarian leader) [12:33]
• Current Status:
  • No firm date for cluster openings; diplomatic expectation is that perhaps one or two more may open before the summer recess—not all five remaining chapters as Kyiv hopes.

Quote:
“No one is actually talking about a fast track anymore. They’re talking about doing things quickly but not with cut corners.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [12:45]

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5. Heatwave Across Europe: Lighter Moments ([13:22–15:22])

Key Segment: [13:22–15:22]

• Rising Temperatures: European capitals swelter under a record-breaking heatwave, with temperatures exceeding 40°C in Spain, Portugal, France, and Italy.
• French Alcohol Ban:
  • Unprecedented public alcohol bans in France during the street music festival to prevent dehydration.
• Daily Life in Brussels:
  • Nick revels in the sunshine; Zoya laments the lack of air conditioning in European buildings and quips about her genetic unsuitability for Brussels heat.

Quotes:
“I could do without the vitamin D, Nick. I’m done with the D.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [13:40]
“An alcohol ban in France really means you got to be very, very concerned about dehydration.” — Nick Vinicour [14:21]

• Listener Engagement:
  • Listeners encouraged to share their heatwave hacks or opinions on air conditioning via WhatsApp.

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6. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On negotiation drama:
  “Every negotiation needs a moment of, I won’t say explosion, but a moment where the sparks fly.” — Thomas Byrne [03:10]

• On historical legacies in EU politics:
  “For Ukrainians, some see UPA as a unit that was fighting against the Nazis and the Soviets... for independence; for Poland, it’s remembered for massacre—there is a bit of a difference in perception.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [09:21]

• On air conditioning in Europe:
  “I like to regulate temperature up or down.” — Nick Vinicour [14:42]
  “You love e-scooters and temperature control. You’re so American right now.” — Zoya Sheftalovich [14:47]

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7. Timestamps for Major Topics

• [01:11] Ireland’s approach to the EU Council presidency
• [03:08] Thomas Byrne on budget negotiations
• [05:43] Irish priorities: MFF & enlargement
• [06:13] Technical aspects of enlargement
• [07:42] Poland–Ukraine dispute over UPA issue
• [10:58] Ukraine’s EU membership negotiations
• [13:22] Heatwave across Europe
• [14:21] Alcohol bans in France during the heatwave
• [14:47] Cultural quips about air conditioning

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Conclusion

Today’s episode offers listeners a concise but rich dive into the pivotal summer ahead for EU politics: the Irish EU Council presidency must juggle an ambitious agenda, historic sensitivities flare anew in Poland-Ukraine relations, and Ukraine’s path to EU membership is slowing under political cross-currents. Amidst these weighty topics, the hosts find time to commiserate and joke about Brussels’ heat—reminding us that the personal is never far from the political in Europe’s capital.

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For further engagement:

• Share your thoughts on heatwave survival and EU negotiations via the WhatsApp link in the show notes.
• Register to attend the podcast’s 100th episode live taping on June 30.

Hosts:

• Zoya Sheftalovich (POLITICO)
• Nick Vinicour (POLITICO)
• Guest: Thomas Byrne (Irish Europe Minister)

[Note: All timestamps align with the episode’s provided transcript.]

Transcript

[A]

Today's episode is presented by Team Poland. Team Poland is a one stop shop offered by six Polish development institutions to unlock global potential of Polish companies and their international partners.

[B]

Good morning. It's Monday, June 22nd and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe in Brussels today is expectant as Ireland prepares to take over the EU Council presidency on July 1st. I've actually spoken with the Europe Minister for Ireland, Thomas Byrne, on the key issues they're going to be tackling. Also on the pod, things are getting a little bit difficult for Ukraine on the diplomatic field and actually in terms of other hot things. It's hot. It's so hot, Nick.

[C]

Come again?

[B]

It's hot. It's hot inside, it's hot outside. It's the heat wave, baby. We're going to talk heat wave.

[C]

I'm sitting here literally drenched in sweat. Me too. It's really on theme.

[B]

Yes. I should probably introduce us. I'm Zoya Shiftilova. With me today is Nick Vinicour, our chief foreign affairs and being sweaty correspondent.

[D]

Howdy.

[B]

Howdy.

[C]

Good to be here, Nick.

[B]

Let's get straight to it. Ireland is about to take over the presidency of the European Council and they've got a ton of files on their table that are super important.

[C]

Yeah. Not least the mff, which as we know is everyone's favorite file, gets people very heated.

[B]

It does. Much like our blood pressure. That's the EU's long term budget, the Multiannual Financial Framework, seven years. It's meant to cover spending from 2028 to 2034 and it is up for grabs.

[C]

Yeah. And this is really the crucial period here, the crucial presidency, because next year we've got two major elections in the EU and a lot of countries want to get this, this stuff sorted, the hard negotiations out of the way before, for example, the election in France at least.

[B]

I've actually spoken with Europe Minister for Ireland Thomas Byrne. We had a chat last Wednesday at a Politico event. It was a special event for our pro subscribers, the apro pro, and he was me about the priorities that the Irish are going to have for their six months in the hot seat. And the interesting thing for me, always with these presidencies that are in the second half of the year is it takes them a while to get going because they take over July 1, Europe goes on holiday and so really they're kicking off in September. So it's a pretty tight timeline for them to get, you know, a budget across the line.

[C]

Yeah, it's very short. A lot of people Say it's unrealistic to get the whole negotiation kind of really laid out by then. But this is going to be the numbers discussion. The hardest part of the discussion is between July and the end of the year.

[B]

Yeah. Well, let's hear from Thomas Byrne on the budget. You know, we were talking about the budget a lot this evening. We've been talking about the budget a lot. For months. You have this Cyprus presidency handing over the baton to you. They have a first nego box, as we call it in Brussels speak, which is really just the numbers. But today we've been hearing from some diplomats from certain countries who are very unhappy with that Cypriot negotiation document that they want it ripped up and they want Ireland to start again. I mean, are you ready to rip it all up, or do you think you can get them to the table?

[D]

Well, we've seen intractable positions before on many negotiations, and in fact, I think every negotiation needs a moment of, I won't say explosion, but a moment where the sparks fly. At least I think we kind of had that in the last couple of General Affairs Councils, where you've seen, broadly speaking, two groups of countries line up kind of together to speak almost with one voice, not quite. But the negotiation needs that. It needs to know where everybody's at. And I think we see ourselves very much in the middle ground. Yes, we are a very significant net contributor now, but relatively recently, we were net beneficiaries, so we can see both sides of the aisle, so to speak, on this issue. And I think that we'd be seen as an honest broker. The leaders will have discussed this at the European Council, and we will then drive forward the agenda from 1 July. The Cyprus presidency has achieved a lot on the structure. The negotiating box document has been published. It's our job to move it forward. What I will do for my part is I will have this on the agenda, obviously, the General Affairs Council, to keep that political momentum up. I will also meet individually with ministers as well, to see what their red lines actually are.

[B]

Let's fast forward to December. It's the last European Council summit of the year. You're arriving in Brussels with how many shirts?

[D]

Well, I was first appointed Minister for European affairs on the 1st of July 2020, and I think it was five nights, the negotiations that the MFF took in July 2020, the last MFF. So we've seen this before. So we have as many as it takes, because we need to do this.

[B]

Find a dry cleaner.

[D]

Find a dry cleaner.

[B]

Or six shirts, 10 shirts, as long as it takes is what I'm doing.

[D]

They tend to close on Christmas Day, at least in Ireland, so we might be in trouble then. We did have meetings of corporate on Christmas Day during Brexit. I don't want to sort of announce that yet. I'm not. Certainly not doing that.

[B]

Is that the threat for all the diplomats in the room? You will be brought in on Christmas Day if you have to be.

[D]

All I'll say is Ireland is prepared to do the work and we work every day of the year if we have to.

[B]

Yeah. So that's. That's interesting. He then goes on to say, Nick, that this is really crucial to get it done this year.

[C]

I mean, you know, just from that saying that the MFF negotiation can be done this year. That in itself is a position. Some of the big countries, France notably, has told us they don't want it to be done by this year because they have this big election coming up. They're quite happy putting this off. So Ireland's kind of laying out its stall there that it wants to really dive into these negotiations and get as much done as possible. And that's a position in itself.

[B]

Yeah. The other big priority for Ireland, I would say probably their number one, number two priority, equal with the budget, is enlargement. And this is something that the Irish are really keen on because. Interesting factoid. The last time a new EU country joined the bloc was also off the back of an Irish presidency. So let's hear from Minister Byrne on that. Ireland last held the EU Council presidency way back in 2013. What feels different now, taking over?

[D]

So look, what feels different is that it's a totally changed world. It's a bigger union than 2013, but not by much, actually. We just a Croatia joined just after us. So we want to make it even bigger if we can.

[B]

Do you think you can? Because, I mean, there's so many countries on really knocking on the door of the EU trying to get in.

[D]

Look, our strategy during the presidency will be to move forward the talks on a technical level. We do have a merit based. There's a process there and when countries meet the benchmarks, then we will bring them to council to move them forward. And there's certainly a possibility that Montenegro's negotiations could finish by the end of the year, and we certainly will work hard to try to achieve that. Already the Cyprus presidency has got the accession treaty negotiation underway and we need to move that forward. But I think that sends a signal out to the wider world, including to countries who want to join a lot of people want to join our European Union. There's something good happening in Brussels, in Luxembourg, in Strasbourg and in all of the member states that others want to join us. What's different now today, apart from the accession countries, is you have other countries as well who want to be closer to Europe without joining the European Union. Canada, for example.

[B]

Yeah. So that's interesting. Nick Montenegro, front of the queue. He reckons they could finish up negotiations this year.

[D]

Yep.

[C]

Well, that would be big. That would be the first new country to join in 13 years. 13 years. And kind of maybe open the way for other countries to join as well.

[B]

Hey, Nick, speaking of countries that want to join the eu, Ukraine is another one. And obviously things have been actually going pretty well for Ukraine on the battlefield. And we saw just over the weekend these reports that in Crimea, the impact of the Ukrainian strikes have been such that they've actually banned civilians from buying petrol. So Ukraine is doing really, really well there, but it's not doing quite as well in another kind of battlefield, which is the PR battlefield at the moment. There's a bit of a spat with Poland that is taking a toll.

[C]

Yeah. And the issue is just on Friday, Poland's President, Carol Nosky, has stripped President Zelensky of the Order of the White Eagle, which is Poland's highest honor, which was bequeathed to him. And it's all because of this dispute over a World War II era Ukrainian military unit. Let's point out though, before we go further that Novrotsky is not from the same party as the Prime Minister, Donald Tusk. So this is a spat between the President of Poland and the President of Ukraine, but not necessarily the whole government of Poland.

[B]

Yeah, absolutely. And the president, so he's from the far right Law and Justice Party. So what this dispute actually hinges on is that Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, he has named a new Ukrainian military unit after a World War II era group called the Ukrainian Insurgent Army. UPA is the kind of acronym and it's a really touchy subject for Poland. Understandably so, because During World War II, upper partisans actually ended up murdering tens of thousands of Poles in an ethnic cleansing campaign in the region of Volhynia in 1943-1945. So it's obviously quite a difficult subject for Poland, but for Ukrainians, some Ukrainians see upper as a unit that was fighting against the Nazis and the Soviets and was fighting for independence for Ukraine. So there is a bit of a difference in perception there.

[C]

Yeah, absolutely. And of course, for Poland, you know, this is A major event. Poland calls these killings a genocide, a massacre. Ukraine doesn't qualify them that way, but it's obviously a big issue, especially for the nationalist right in Poland. But let's not forget that this is also the kind of campaign of President Nevrotsky. He's been more anti Ukraine, certainly than Prime Minister Donald Tusk. And why is this issue coming up now? Well, it's a way of differentiating with the PM and making things a bit more difficult for Zelensky.

[B]

Yeah. And of course Poland goes to the ballot boxes next year. So this is starting to heat up in the lead up to that Law and Justice, which is Novotsky's party was wiped out at the last election, but they've never gone away. And Donald Tusk, who's the Prime Minister, who has this kind of platform of center right parties working with him to back him up, he's also battling for support. So this is one of these issues that's getting quite politicized. Now. Ukraine has attempted to take some steps towards recognizing the toll on Poland. So for instance, the Foreign Minister, Andre S. Has said that Kiev is working to exhume the remains of some of the people killed by upper during the war and give them a proper burial. He's working with Poland at the moment to do that. But it's still a pretty sensitive subject on both sides, obviously.

[C]

Yeah. And that's really not all that's going on for Ukraine because we had the big news of Ukraine opening its first negotiation cluster with the eu. And we know that Kiev wants to rapidly move ahead, open all, all the clusters, ideally before the end of the summer break. But here we've had a little bit of plot twist at the council where we see that Hungary, among other countries is kind of back to form in a way in opposing this fast track membership for Ukraine.

[B]

Yeah. And so this was at this European Council summit that we mentioned happened last week, Thursday and Friday. And basically there had been some hope. Volodymyr Zelensky was at the summit on Thursday night. He came to speak with the EU's leaders. And you and I were both picking up, up in diplomatic conversations that we were having this appetite in some of the big Ukraine backers as well as in Kiev to actually open the remaining clusters. Potentially even in July. There was this conversation around, okay, let's, let's just get it done, let's start work on it. But at the summit itself, things did not go that way. It didn't seem like there was enough of a consensus around doing that immediately. Basically everyone Kind of. And we heard it from Thomas Byrne earlier. You know, everyone talks about, we're not talking about shortcuts for Ukraine, we're talking about a merit based approach. But Magyar wants to slow things down a little bit.

[C]

Yeah. And it all came down to, as it usually does, with a bit of kind of dry diplomatic language. And there was discussion right up until before the summit about the phrase that would be included in the conclusions, whether they would put a date on opening all the clusters or say as soon as possible. And it looks like the skeptical camp has won out. And Magyar addressed this in the final presser. He said fast tracking another country at this moment would undermine the European Union's credibility. So he's really laying out a stall on this one.

[B]

Yeah. And I will say here that, like, no one is actually talking about a fast track anymore. They're talking about doing things quickly but not with cut corners. So it's, I think it's like a little bit political. But in any case, I think there is still, you know, I was talking to people on the ground on Thursday night and on Friday and there was still a sense that probably we will open more clusters before the summer break, but probably not all five remaining clusters. Maybe one, maybe Chapter six or cluster six, rather, which is the traditional. Two clusters to open first are Cluster one and Cluster six.

[C]

Right. Stay tuned for that one.

[B]

Nick, Story three. How have you been dealing with this heat this weekend?

[C]

I'm not going to lie, I kind of love it, except for sleep time, in which case I want it to be about 20 degrees lower. But I'm enjoying soaking in the vitamin D, you know what I mean? We've been deprived for months.

[B]

I could do without the vitamin D, Nick. I'm done with the D. You want

[C]

it in pill form and for the sun to stay where it is.

[B]

Exactly. Just stay away. I was, I was built for Ukrainian mountains, not for Brussels bucket of heat.

[C]

Yeah. Yeah.

[B]

Well, in any case, I mean, it's been kind of an interesting weekend because we've had a few pretty significant temperature highs. Like, I mean, they've exceeded 40 degrees in Spain, in Portugal, France, Italy. It's been pretty crazy. And there was actually a street music festival, this was in France over the weekend. They ended up introducing an alcohol ban in public areas because they were saying that, like, people might get dehydrated.

[C]

Yeah, that would really caught my eye because an alcohol ban in France really means you got to be very, very concerned about dehydration.

[B]

Yes, Dehydration is what they're concerned about. And the other thing is, Nick, obviously European buildings aren't really air conditioned.

[C]

No, they're not. And people have strong feelings about this. I know how I feel.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

I like to regulate temperature up or down.

[B]

I do too. You love e scooters and temperature control. You're so American right now.

[C]

You know, it's just freedom is kind of. Is that American? I guess so.

[B]

It is the home of the free, land of the brave. Well, folks out there, there, you tell us what you think. Are you. Do you have some special tips and tricks to keep cool? I've literally just been eating ice cubes all day, every day for the last five or six days. So if you've got something more ambitious than that, let us know. Let us know what you think about air conditioning. Pro, anti, neutral.

[C]

Give us a rant.

[B]

Yeah, the link is in the show notes. Send us whatever you're thinking onto our WhatsApp line. And folks out there, if you haven't already, there's still time to register your interest if you want to come to our live 100th episode taping that's on the 30th of June. You're going to be there, Nick. Don't look surprised.

[C]

I'm very excited for that.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

And then you know what? We got to do this in front of people. And I hope we kind of keep up our game. I hope it's as compelling as it is when we record time delay.

[D]

I don't know.

[B]

Yeah, maybe even more compelling, Nick. All right, folks, that's about it from us today. Leave us a review. Tell us what you think. See you tomorrow.

[C]

See ya.

[A]

A message from Team Poland. As a partner of the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, we thank all strategic thinkers for inspiring economic dialogue. Team Poland brings together six development institutions connecting companies and investors to unlock ideas and capital and drive sustainable growth across Europe. Find us at www.teampoland.eu.