
The ECB will meet today and make a decision that depends heavily on events far away.
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Zora Shaftalovich
Good morning. It's Thursday, April 30th, and this is the Brussels Playbook podcast. The vibe today is on edge as the European Central bank meets to discuss whether to raise interest rates, but has no good options. Also on the pod, Europe has a fuel blind spot and officials are scrambling to figure out how much energy the EU actually has in storage. And later, politicians walk into classrooms and, well, they say the wrong thing. Ian, it's you, Ian.
Ian Wishart
Speaking of saying the wrong thing, Ian
Zora Shaftalovich
Wishart is back with me today. I'm Zora Shaftalovich. This is Ian Wishart.
Ian Wishart
We haven't been together for what, about three weeks, have we?
Zora Shaftalovich
Something like that. And in that time, all you've managed to do is tank the pod by telling people you hate halumi.
Ian Wishart
Word has reached me, you've been comparing yourself to Ursula von der Leyen and
Zora Shaftalovich
I've been comparing you to Antonia Kroshter. We're like the dynamic duo of the Politico Tower.
Ian Wishart
Should we get on with it?
Zora Shaftalovich
I guess so. The European Central bank, the ecb, meets today. Ian. That's the group that sets interest rates for the Eurozone. Did you know that?
Ian Wishart
I did know that, yeah. Because I used to report on the ECB and all things economic. Nothing ever seems to change, though. And it looks like they're going to wait and see this week.
Zora Shaftalovich
Yeah, because inflation is high. People are worried about the price of fuel. Fuel and the way that that's affecting everything else as well. But the lever of raising interest rates is a pretty significantly harmful one for a lot of households. So it's a bit of a scary one to pull.
Ian Wishart
People have obviously got used to inflation over the past, I don't know, half a decade. Obviously prices have rocketed. We talked when this podcast started a couple months ago about the rocketing price of coffee, didn't we? But everything has gone up. Everybody knows that. Everybody listening to this podcast knows it's gone up totally.
Zora Shaftalovich
And businesses are struggling because consumers obviously have a certain idea in mind about what they might pay for a coffee, what they might for a soft drink, for a sandwich.
Ian Wishart
Anything.
Zora Shaftalovich
Anything, really. And then they Go into a shop, they go into a supermarket, eggs are through the roof. You know, Donald Trump won an election based on the price of eggs is what I've heard. So it's a real worry for a lot of people and the banks have to respond to it one way or another.
Ian Wishart
What I was going to say was people I think assumed that this rocketing inflation would stop after Ukraine. I mean that's what really triggered this was basically having to pay for Covid and then suddenly the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and that sent prices through the roof and things were beginning to st. Everybody was getting a bit more satisfied with how things were going. And now inflation seems to be going up again. Looking at inflation expectations, they expect inflation to go up 4% over the next year.
Zora Shaftalovich
Yeah, that's, I mean the they is the ecb, but it's also consumers, it's also people. There is a general kind of mood of well this is going to be
Ian Wishart
high, that's double the rate that they thought it was going to be before the Iran war pretty much.
Zora Shaftalovich
And the target is 2%. So this is well above target. I think the estimate for the pre Iran war was around about 2.5% but now we're looking at 4%, could be even higher in some sectors because when you're looking at things like energy prices, obviously they're up 50%.
Ian Wishart
So when inflation is so high, it's then up to the ECB to decide to raise interest rates or not. And it's a really difficult balancing act because you want to raise interest rates to get inflation under control, but you don't want to do it too much because then it becomes too expensive for people to pay back debt.
Zora Shaftalovich
Yeah, and it tanks the economy and people don't have confidence so they stick to stop buying things. They kind of tighten their belts and that can further impact the economy. And the ECB they meet every six weeks for one of these rate setting meetings. And this latest one which is happening later today, is going to be a bit of a doozy because essentially what's going to happen is they have to decide for the next six weeks what they're going to do. And you know, when this all started, when this inflation crunch started, everyone was saying, well this war is going to be a quick one. Donald Trump is going to be in and out, they'll do whatever it is they need to do and then it'll be over. Now we're looking at the fact that it has been significantly longer than initial expectations said it was going to be. Trump keeps you know, essentially saying, oh, maybe it'll be over next week, maybe it'll be longer. It's very hard to predict. And so when you have to set the rates for the next six weeks, you have to make that determination what you're going to do. It makes it a difficult position you find yourself in because if you don't pull the lever quickly enough, that's a long time between drinks.
Ian Wishart
Our colleagues who follow the ECB think that Christine Lagarde and the Governing Council were won't raise interest rates today, but they'll keep the threat of it alive. And that's kind of signaling to the markets that we're watching and inflation goes too high, we will do something, but not quite going that far, that they're pushing the button straight away.
Zora Shaftalovich
Yeah, but the danger of something like that is if you cry wolf too many times, then that can really mess with things.
Ian Wishart
Yeah. And we saw that argument being made throughout those months after the Ukraine invasion and to get inflation down.
Zora Shaftalovich
Yeah. And I remember at that time there were criticisms made of the ECB that it didn't go quickly, and not just the ecb, but also the bank of England and various other central banks that they didn't go quickly enough in addressing the crisis and figuring out that this was going to be a long lasting inflationary kind of trend. And so there was criticism back then. So I'm sure that's something that's weighing on their minds today.
Ian Wishart
We've talked a lot about the Eurozone, the Europe sluggish economy really. And this all feeds into that. If people expecting inflation now at 4% over the next year, businesses saying they'll raise prices, business confidence dropping, this all plays a part. And you add inflation to that mix and it just makes it very difficult for any politician to make the economy better.
Zora Shaftalovich
Yeah, things are looking pretty gloomy at the moment, so we'll see what happens today. But expectations are it's going to be a wait and see, do nothing for now. Leading on from that last story a little bit, our colleague Ben Munster has a piece out this morning where he looks at the shortage of fuel around Europe. And actually it's not even so much about the shortage of fuel, but more about the fact that the EU doesn't really know how much fuel and oil and gas and so on is in storage.
Ian Wishart
Does anybody know?
Zora Shaftalovich
Nobody knows because it's a tricky thing to gauge and there are some reporting requirements. So the European Commission, for instance, has this mandated rule where the countries around the EU have to tell. There's like A special register and you have to declare how much gas you've got in storage. The EU monitors that because you're supposed to have 90% by the time winter rolls around. But when it comes to other things like jet fuel, like oil, so forth, that's a little bit trickier to tell how much is in storage.
Ian Wishart
So let's zoom out just a bit. We're talking about this because of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about 20% of the world's. The world's oil supply. The world's oil supply. And that obviously having a knock on effect. And when the supply of oil is so restricted, you need to know how much you've got and how much you've got left. I think Ursula von der Leyen said yesterday that the Iran war means around 500 million euros a day in extra energy costs.
Zora Shaftalovich
Yeah. And that's, I mean that's everything in that flights are more expensive, driving your car is more expensive, your deliveries might not arrive for ages because we don't know if there's going to be fuel on a plane that's meant to be taking your cargo around Europe. And we've seen that this adds to
Ian Wishart
the higher inflation that we were just talking about as well.
Zora Shaftalovich
Exactly. It's all linked and all quite tricky for the EU to deal with. And of course that just adds, adds another difficult element for companies to have to deal with when they're trying to plan ahead. And we've seen the real world effects of this. I mean, Lufthansa has just canceled, what, 20,000 flights for short haul routes, saying that they weren't profitable. A bunch of airlines are doing that all around the world and summer holidays are coming up. So people are going to feel this for real very soon.
Ian Wishart
And there's an interesting quote actually, and Ben's story today from Tobias Meier, the chief executive of dhl, who said, in Europe we have visibility and commitments into May and June, but what happens beyond that is hard to forecast. There are strategic reserves, but visibility on how much has been drawn down is limited.
Zora Shaftalovich
Yeah, that's, I mean, that's pretty stark. When the boss of dhl, which is responsible for loads and loads of parcels being flung around Europe, when he doesn't really know beyond June. That's pretty interesting.
Ian Wishart
The reason that we don't know is because so much of it sits in private hands, there doesn't seem to be any coordination across different countries and different territories and different organizations.
Zora Shaftalovich
Yeah. So there's like some input from the International Energy Agency. Eurostat has some of this data and it does periodic updates, but there's nothing in real time. And for instance, you know, we were talking about this gas rule where you've got to report how much gas you've got in reserves. You've got to reach a certain target. Well, those stats are two months behind, effectively, because you report at the end of the month for data from two months ago. So, for instance, they'd be reporting right now for data from February. And that was, you know, feels like a lifetime ago.
Ian Wishart
Well, it's interesting that there was a meeting last month where ministers from Belgium, the Netherlands and Spain said they wanted the EU to coordinate more real time monitoring. And Greece went so far as to say the Commission should set up a WhatsApp group or a signal group to try to coordinate the numbers.
Zora Shaftalovich
Well, I mean, good luck to Greece because as we know, the Commission has been warning people that those things are getting hacked. I think that that would be if I was Russia and I was looking
Ian Wishart
for something quite useful information, wouldn't it?
Zora Shaftalovich
Yeah, it might be. It might be looking for something a little more secure than a WhatsApp or Signal group. But nonetheless, I think, I think it shows the extent to which this is a huge concern for countries, particularly countries. I mean, Greece is a big shipping country. Belgium, port city. You know, I would like to know
Ian Wishart
actually, though, are people not booking their summer holidays because prices have gone up and flights are being canceled? Are people staying here because of this crisis? I don't know the answer to that. You know, are people just not flying?
Zora Shaftalovich
Well, I think this is a question for the WhatsApp link in our show notes, folks.
Ian Wishart
What a good idea.
Zora Shaftalovich
I think so. What are you doing? Are you planning your summer holiday around the fact that you might need to take the bus there?
Ian Wishart
Liege is nice at this time of year.
Zora Shaftalovich
I'll get a waffle.
Ian Wishart
Speaking of waffles, shall we. Should we go on to the third story?
Zora Shaftalovich
Yeah, let's do it. Ian, third story. This one's a fun one for me. It's about politics.
Ian Wishart
Even more fun than inflation and jet fuel.
Zora Shaftalovich
Well, I don't know how it's possible. And yet here we are. Our colleague, Paul Dallison, a birthday boy, by the way. It's his birthday today. Happy birthday, Paul. He's written a fun little story today about the classic politician child photo op going wrong.
Ian Wishart
Yeah. And should we talk about why we're talking about this today?
Zora Shaftalovich
I guess we probably should. It's because the UK ambassador to the us, Christian Turner, recently visited a High school and didn't go quite as he may have anticipated it might. He brought up Epstein.
Ian Wishart
He brought up Epstein, yeah.
Zora Shaftalovich
The topic that I'd like to talk to all children about, Jeffrey Epstein, renowned sex offender, and it seems classroom conversations started.
Ian Wishart
He told a group of students it was extraordinary that the Epstein scandal hadn't touched anybody in the US While it had brought down his predecessor, Peter Mandelson, and potentially the Prime Minister. He's wading into domestic politics like that. There's something about talking to groups of school children where politicians and diplomats, they let their guard down.
Zora Shaftalovich
Yeah. I mean, it's not the first time it's happened. Just this week. On Monday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz gave his fiercest criticism of Trump on record. He basically said that the US is being humiliated by the regime in Tehran and that Trump lacks a strategy to end the conflict. And he chose to deliver that criticism at a school in Marsberg.
Ian Wishart
The Iranians are clearly stronger than expected, and the Americans clearly have no truly convincing strategy in the negotiations either. Merz said. It's weird that politicians, they would never dream of saying that, you know, in press conferences or in. In interviews on television, but as soon as you get a group of school children in front of you, everything just sort of goes apart.
Zora Shaftalovich
I think it's nice, actually. I think they should speak the truth to children.
Ian Wishart
They do, obviously, and that's where you get the actual truth from. Do you remember, was it Dan Quayle, the vice president of the US in the early 90s, he corrected somebody's spelling on a blackboard and changed it, put an e on the end of potato because he said that's how potato is spelt.
Zora Shaftalovich
I was really, like, right on Dan Quayle's side, because I'm a giant grammar nerd myself. Until you said the thing where he added an E to potato, and now I'm upset about it. Maybe he's only ever seen potatoes written.
Ian Wishart
That's. That's the only plausible explanation, isn't it?
Zora Shaftalovich
One can hope. Hey, Ian, you know this week you had halumi gate. Last week we had shop gate. This week.
Ian Wishart
Yeah.
Zora Shaftalovich
Actually, speaking of halloumi gate.
Ian Wishart
Yeah.
Zora Shaftalovich
Do you know I had a spy on the ground in Cyprus? Yeah. That's how I operate.
Ian Wishart
Okay.
Zora Shaftalovich
US, Ukrainians, spies everywhere. I had a spy on the ground in Cyprus who told me that they had force fed you proper Cypriot halloumi. And you liked it?
Ian Wishart
I was. We were in Nicosia, and I have to say, it was quite tasty. I take it all back.
Zora Shaftalovich
Oh, my God. Is this happening. I've never heard you take anything back.
Ian Wishart
I'm taking this back.
Zora Shaftalovich
What you're saying is you were wrong. Halloumi's the best.
Ian Wishart
I wouldn't go that. I wouldn't go that far.
Zora Shaftalovich
No brew British cheddar.
Ian Wishart
I wouldn't go that far. Okay, well, it's the Irish presidency next. So if I say I don't like Guinness before that, then we'll. We'll keep on going. Anyway, you were going to tell us about shops.
Zora Shaftalovich
I was going to tell you about shops because Nick and I were talking earlier this week on Monday about how much we were excited that Belgian shops might stay open on a Sunday. And later.
Ian Wishart
Fascinating podcast.
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Don't you sledge us?
Zora Shaftalovich
Yeah, we had a great podcast and let me tell you, we got a deluge. A deluge of text Messages on the WhatsApp line. Voice notes. There were four part voice notes. It was a literal four part voice note, Ian, with people telling us what they thought about our capitalist ways. Well, there's a few more that have come through since then. I'm going to read you some Eleanor from Germany. She said, I'm an American that has lived in munich for over 25 years. I used to hate the shops were closed on Sundays. Now I am all for it. And I'll be throwing the first Molotov cocktail if that changes. Oh, it's a joke. She said.
Ian Wishart
Okay.
Zora Shaftalovich
Is it though? Should we tell the police? A listener from Athens says that they want Sunday shopping to come to their city. Did you know shops weren't open in Athens on a Sunday?
Ian Wishart
I think I did know that. Yeah.
Zora Shaftalovich
Folks, that's it from us today. And actually, you won't be hearing any more from us this week because it's a bank holiday in Brussels.
Ian Wishart
You could just listen to this episode
Zora Shaftalovich
twice, three times, even go into the backlog. Listen to Ian's. Listen to Ian's Halloumi one again. See you, folks.
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Host: Zoya Sheftalovich (POLITICO)
Guest/Co-host: Ian Wishart
Date: April 30, 2026
Duration (main content): ~00:27–14:32
This episode focuses on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and the challenges it faces in setting interest rates amidst persistent inflation and economic uncertainty in the eurozone. The discussion then broadens to explore Europe's energy blind spot amid the Iran conflict and closes with a lighter segment on politicians’ classroom mishaps and listener engagement around Sunday shopping. The hosts offer conversational, on-the-ground context about the serious ramifications of ECB decisions, ongoing fuel and data issues in the EU, and some lighter moments drawn from EU politics and European life.
[00:27–05:57]
ECB Meeting Context & Challenge
Understanding the Current Economic Crisis
What’s Driving Inflation?
The ECB’s “No Good Options”
Likely Outcome: Signaling But Not Acting
[05:57–09:59]
Europe Unclear on Fuel Stocks
Strategic Blind Spots
Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Knock-on Effects & Real World Consequences
Lack of Coordination & Proposed Solutions
[09:59–12:46]
Politicians Saying the Wrong Thing to Schoolchildren
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Off-the-Cuff Criticisms
Historical Anecdotes & Banter
[12:46–14:32]
Halloumi-Gate Resolution
Listener Engagement & Sunday Shopping
The conversation is breezy yet informed, with Zoya and Ian weaving personal anecdotes, news analysis, and European cultural quirks throughout. Listeners get both a pithy sense of the daily challenges confronting EU policymakers and an invitation to take part in the podcast’s lively, interactive community.
For those who missed it:
This episode is an essential primer on Europe’s fragile economic balancing act, with sharp insights on the long-term effects of global crises on the eurozone. The hosts effectively link headline policy decisions to the daily lives (and frustrations) of Europeans while keeping things conversational and, at times, delightfully irreverent.