Loading summary
Transcript50 lines
- [00:00]
Simon Fraser
Let us make this the moment when Britain starts to believe again. The moment we bring back hope. Thank you very much, everybody.
- [00:17]
Anne McElvoy
He's the seventh British Prime Minister to walk through the famous black door of number 10 Downing Street. Can Andy Burnham refresh relations with Europe and rescue a reset with Brussels that feels like it's been kicked into the long grass? I'm Anne McElvoy and welcome to Brussels Playbook Weekender. Keir Starmer had hoped that a rapprochement with Brussels would be celebrated at a summit this week, but it was not to be. It was postponed after his own resignation. Now a new broom in Downing street and a new Europe minister, too. And it's hoped that the talks will resume and a summit will finally take place. So how might the UK's role in Europe, the E3, and support for Ukraine, change in the weeks and months ahead? Joining me to read the runes of that are two guests who know the knotty relationship between Britain and the European Union inside out. Sylvie Bullard was France's defense minister in 2017. Previously an MEP, she joined Emmanuel Macron's En Marche Party and. And she advised him on the fallout from Brexit. Sir Simon Fraser led Britain's Foreign Office between 2010 and 2015. He certainly knows his way around Brussels, too, having served as Peter Mandelson's chef de cabernet when Mandelson was EU Trade Commissioner. And he has also held a senior position at the British Embassy in Paris. Now Simon heads the business consultancy from Flint Global, and until recently, he worked with James Purnell, now Andy Burnham's chief of staff. Small world. Sylvie Bullard and Simon Fraser, welcome to Brussels Playbook Weekender. Hi, Sylvie.
- [02:02]
Sylvie Bullard
Hi.
- [02:03]
Anne McElvoy
And hello, Simon.
- [02:04]
Simon Fraser
Hello.
- [02:05]
Anne McElvoy
You're a different places, but in the same conversation. Sylvie, how do you think that Andy Burnham's appointment as a new British Prime Minister, the latest in a long line in recent years, how's it been generally received in France and across institutional Europe?
- [02:22]
Sylvie Bullard
Well, we have now experienced several Prime Ministers and it's also the same in France. So I'm not saying this in a nasty way. What we should maybe think about is the. The fact that all our democracies are a little bit shaken and with very different contexts because labor has a large majority, Macron has no majority, the Chancellor in Germany has a coalition. But at the end, whatever the configuration is, we observe that we are facing such a hard time that we should look at what we have together instead of just looking at the details. I would say the lesson I draw is that we hope we can work closely with the uk, but we know it's not going to be easy for this Prime Minister at all.
- [03:11]
Anne McElvoy
And after those years of instability, the on off attempts to get this grand reconnection underway, how wary do you think leaders are in Brussels, Paris, Berlin, etc. At the moment? You say it's not easy for Andy Burnham, but my impression covering politics out of London is any government here is actually quite keen to get to some form of reconnecting and getting rid of some frictions with Europe. But do you think there is still feel like a wariness or a suspicion that you pick up now?
- [03:48]
Sylvie Bullard
Let's be serious. The only grand reconnection would be the UK to join the EU again. And I'm saying this because I really believe it, I really believe that we are trying to find ways to overcome something that was a sovereign decision of the British people. I respect, but it was 10 years ago. Now we have war in Europe, we have war in the Middle East. We are facing climate change and very high temperatures everywhere. We are facing trade conditions that had nothing to do with the conditions we had 10 years ago. We observed that China is becoming aggressive. So the only grant recognition will be to say okay, let's maybe change the EU together. But the place of the UK is in the eu not coming back through the window. I know it's quite provocative, but it is very important that we are all serious and the governments on the continent and in Brussels should also not try to find the kind of small arrangements that are not at all what we are needing now.
- [04:57]
Anne McElvoy
Let me find out whether you provoked Simon Fraser with that analysis. Do you think that that is just agree with what Sylvie said? And where do you think it does leave the hopes of more little steps recognition that the British government has been trying to make?
- [05:13]
Simon Fraser
Simon, I agree in principle with Sylvie that actually the real answer is for a much bigger negotiation with more on the table and a bigger offer from the UK about what they're seeking, eventually leading to membership. But the reality is that is not realistic in the British political environment at the moment. What's happened actually is that the direction of travel has changed. So we spent a of years moving away from the eu and I'm very pleased to say that certainly since the Labour government came in, we started moving in the other direction, closer to the eu. And I think that will continue under Andy Burnham, but I don't expect under him a major step change or acceleration of that process. And I think we're already seeing that his priorities are very domestic. They're about the cost of living in the UK and they're about short term steps. And of course the relationship with the EU is very important for, for the UK's growth agenda. But it's going to take time to deliver and he's got a much more urgent agenda. So I'm not sure how much refreshed energy he's going to put into it.
- [06:13]
Anne McElvoy
Can I just ask you, as a seasoned diplomat Sherpa at so many summits led talks, do you think that we will get back to the planned summit? Nick Thomas Simmons, the now outgoing Europe Minister, really felt he was within squeaking distance with his counterpart, Maris Shevkovic of a summit. Do you think we're anywhere near?
- [06:34]
Simon Fraser
I hope so. I think it's really important that this summit takes place. I think they're aiming for October. There is an agenda and I think it's very important that we build on what was agreed at the 2025 summit. And we know that there are issues which are almost ready for agreement. There are one or two outstanding problematic ones, like the youth mobility scheme. But I do think it's a really important signal and I hope that the British government, with the new Minister Hamish Faulkner, will drive that forward, because I absolutely agree, you know, we cannot afford to let that not happen.
- [07:05]
Anne McElvoy
And Sylvie, I know that wasn't what you were proposing, but do you think that this summit will go ahead and what do you think would be the French expectation that would come out of it?
- [07:17]
Sylvie Bullard
For instance, I know the difficulties and we have the same in France and we see in Germany, we see in Italy, we see in the UK the rise of the extreme right. But in my opinion, if we are not able, all the moderates, all the parties that would like to see stability and cooperation, if we don't offer something else which is attractive, the other side is going to win at the end. The problem is not to be realistic in the sense that they dictate what we can do or not. The problem is that there is no more offer on the table on how to improve the cross border cooperation in Europe. I take a very simple example, if I Remember well, in 2013, Cameron, before organizing the referendum, made a speech for Bloomberg where he mentioned the issues on which we needed to work together. Competitiveness, democratic accountability, etc. We need not only the small steps that are acceptable now. We need to do things right. We need to go back to these fundamentals. And I don't believe that it is realistic to go step by step without keeping the big picture inside.
- [08:39]
Anne McElvoy
But can I Just challenge you a little bit on one point of that, Sylvie, which is one story that I've heard from French officials, is that actually one reason that it's quite hard for President Macron to give some ground to the UK at the moment is he wants to show that he's tough, precisely for the reason that you mentioned that he's got a very strong right wing and he's Jordan Bardella and the French right coming at him, as he would see it, dangerously, also to his legacy in power. So those two things that you describe could you could analyse it a different way. That one reason is, Scott, harder for the uk, particularly in the. The French Compact, is that you've got such pressure from the right that giving way to another country could seem like a sign of weakness.
- [09:23]
Sylvie Bullard
But it's not the point. In my opinion, we are discussing without taking into account the real state of the world, we are in the same boat. We are old countries, former colonialist powers with aging societies, disindustrialized, et cetera. So either we manage to build a new project together where we will have to share some sovereignty in all countries. And I agree with you, Macron does not have this room of maneuver, but he always has lost the room of maneuver, as Merkel, as Merz did, as Meloni did, because they don't offer anything. So it's a chicken and egg problem. If you don't offer an alternative that is sexy and opens ways toward the future, then you are not going to convince the people and they will become more and more nationalistic. And this is what I consider my vision of realism. To be realistic now is to be very ambitious and full.
- [10:24]
Anne McElvoy
Points to you, Sylvie, for getting the word sexy into a discussion of UK alignment with the eu. What do you think about. About that, Simon? You were saying there are constraints on Andy Burnham. Do you think, think that he will, however, stick to those red lines of not doing something more radical, whether it's Customs Union or whether it's giving Sylvie her what she would like would be that more decisive move back towards membership.
- [10:51]
Simon Fraser
So, look, I absolutely agree in principle and in an ideal world with Sylvie, that we need to think, step back and think about the position of Europe in the world, our common interests, our common values, what we stand for in terms of democracy and we need to find ways of working together. I absolutely agree. And that is driven by our need for economic growth, our concerns, obviously, about Russia and Putin and our security, and also the shifting relationship with the United States, particularly under Donald Trump. We're all in that boat. Together. But as it happens, unfortunately, Britain did vote for Brexit, not something I myself welcomed. And that has changed the politics here in a way that makes it very difficult just to revert to a pro membership agenda. So I just don't think that's. I'm afraid that's not realistic and I very much doubt that Andy Burnham in the short term is going to revisit those so called red lines about the single market or the Customs Union. I don't think that that's something that he wants to put on the table and open up as a major political debate in a period when he's got a couple of years to an election and he's got to focus on a very immediate agenda. So I'm afraid I think that is unlikely. I would hope, however, that the government maintains that ambition over a slightly longer period. And the only other thing I'd say is, you know, I talked about the importance of the summit and about, you know, making the gains where we can, recognizing that that's difficult for the EU side and they don't want to unpick the single market. But there are some areas, Sylvie, where people in Britain think that actually the behavior of some of the member states, including I have to say France, in relation, for example, to our access to the safe program for defence procurement, did not suggest that there was really a very strong motive or impetus on the EU side to actually open areas of cooperation which are, by the way, outside the collective aki of community policy and where the UK believes it has a serious offer to make. So I think both sides need to examine themselves in this sense. Yes.
- [12:52]
Anne McElvoy
Sylvie, what did you make of that? That was a moment where there was an attempt to reconnect Britain in some way and that was obviously very linked to the very grievous security situation which didn't work out. We had some support from Germany of getting into the safe weapons procurement arrangement blocked by France. Do you think that was regrettable?
- [13:14]
Sylvie Bullard
No, no. Because once again, I don't buy the argument that you want to recognize if you're not ready to be part of it. I remember very well when I was member of the European Parliament and once again I've been involved in Franco British initiative for three years, so I'm not an enemy of the uk. What I'm telling you is really something that has to do with my willingness to get the UK back on board. The truth is that if you allow people who have decided in a sovereign way to be outside to be inside, then you blur the difference between being A member and not being a member.
- [13:56]
Anne McElvoy
And you think that's such a hard line? I mean, you also have other deals, eea, efta, et cetera. And I think Simon was just pointing out it's not within the act here. You could say this is about defence, this is about procurement, and you don't need to be in the EU for that. What would be wrong with that?
- [14:14]
Sylvie Bullard
No, what is wrong is that in my opinion, we made a huge mistake in 1992 when in Maastricht we made a difference between the AQUI and the so called first pillar. And everything that had to do with diplomacy and foreign affairs and defense was.
- [14:29]
Simon Fraser
But Sylvie, you've allowed Canada to join. You allowed Canada to join the SAFE program and you only charged them 10 million euros to join.
- [14:36]
Sylvie Bullard
They have not left. They have not left.
- [14:38]
Simon Fraser
Well, they're certainly not in.
- [14:40]
Sylvie Bullard
No. Okay. And I'm not. I must confess that I'm a little bit puzzled on this because once again, my vision is that if you are part of the eu, it's. You have, you have lots of commitments, you have duties and rights. The problem is that when the UK was in, he wanted opting out and now from outside he wants opting in. And to a certain extent, I want to be able to explain the French citizens with whom we are cooperating on what. And if there is a sense of belonging to something, once again, it's not against anyone, but it is not in the UK interest that we weaken what the European Union is. And by the way, I'm even not in favor of the future enlargement because the weight is prepared is going to weaken the European Union. So it's not against the uk. I'm just asking my British friends to be coherent with themselves. You cannot have your cake and eat it.
- [15:37]
Anne McElvoy
And if we won't be coherent, you'd rather we stayed outside?
- [15:40]
Sylvie Bullard
No, but you decided to leave us. Sometimes in life once make mistakes and for me it's not just for the past, it is for now. Obviously, the new Prime Minister is trying to give a new impetus. If you need a new impetus, you need to open a way. You need to give a perspective. Red lines and small steps. I'm sorry, it is not a perspective, it's just management of the disaster of 10 years ago. I'm sorry, it is not what we need. It is not what countries like France and the UK should have as a common vision for the future.
- [16:17]
Anne McElvoy
Simon?
- [16:18]
Simon Fraser
Well, I mean, the fact is, it's true that the majority of public opinion in the UK now regards brexit as something, as an error, but it happened. And the politics of our country just doesn't allow the government at the moment to put on the table a clear aspiration for rejoining. I think that that is just not politically feasible. But, Sylvie, what we're trying to do, recognizing that the situation we're in, is to find practical ways forward towards rebuilding the relationship. I recognise your point that you would rather that we were in wholeheartedly, but if we can't at the moment be that, surely it is in our collective interest to maintain a direction, a positive direction of travel, which brings the UK back closer to the EU and indeed to its very important partners in France, Germany, Italy, Poland and elsewhere. And on the argument about, you know, enlargement, for example, I mean, I heard French voices arguing against the enlargement of the EU in 2004, 2005, when countries like Poland and others came in. I think it's pretty far fetched to argue now that actually that weakened the eu. If you look at the role that those countries are playing in defending the EU and supporting us against the security threats that Europe now faces. So we can all regret things that happened in the past or have views on things that happened in the past, the question in my mind is, what are the practical ways that we can move forward towards the future? I share your ambition. The question is how can we actually move positive towards it?
- [17:51]
Anne McElvoy
You first should just move on to something, Simon, which is that practically holding things up on that reconnection or attempt by the UK in the talks with Shefkovich on what that would mean, and that is this Youth Experience program, the restoration of pre Brexit home tuition fees for EU students, in a nutshell, and that that seems to be something. As covering this in detail, we spoke with Nick Thomas Simmons and others on this podcast that initially the British government viewers know this is absolutely impossible. Our university sector can't wear it. That's in the rear view mirror. But it does seem that some countries, I think Germany very strongly sticking out for it. So where is this going to land? Can we get any form of youth mobility moving if Britain isn't going to move on the fee level? And key Europeans who otherwise even Germany, which is probably pushing a little bit harder than France to get something done, is saying, hang on a minute, these are the terms. Are we back to square one?
- [18:52]
Simon Fraser
So personally, I think this is a really important issue and I very much hope that we'll make progress on it, not least because I think giving hope and opportunity to the younger generation is A very important part of the vision that Sylvie is talking about. And after all, we have done some other things. I mean, we've gone back into the Horizon program, we've done Erasmus now as well, and I do hope we can do it now. There are blocks, obviously. One of them is that the UK is trying to impose a cap on the numbers, which the EU side doesn't. And the second, as you've identified in particular, is the question of the fee level, where, you know, British universities, which, who are very hard strapped for cash at the moment, are requesting that they maintain a higher fee level. So there's a negotiation to be had. I don't see why a compromise shouldn't be found, and I very much hope a compromise will be found because this is one of the totemic, important, symbolic things that were more than symbolic, but very important things that we can do for the relationship. It seems to me.
- [19:48]
Anne McElvoy
Sylvie, youth mobility. Would you go into bat for that?
- [19:52]
Sylvie Bullard
Sion is right. I mean, we need to make sure that the young generation know each other and once again, it's an investment in the future. So, of course, it has a cost, as investments always have a cost, but I think it's. It's of the utmost importance.
- [20:09]
Anne McElvoy
In a few moments, we'll be looking at the close but often fractious relationship between London and Paris. The characters at the top of the leaders do matter. Do you think Andy Burnham and Emmanuel Macron will get along as well as Keir Starmer did with Macron? He did, in the end, get the legend d'. Honneur. So, although it may not have always been smooth sailing, but they clearly had some positive personal vibes going on on Andy Burnham.
- [20:41]
Simon Fraser
I think he has a capacity to get on with people, and I would expect him to get on with Emmanuel Macron, of course. Actually, what you have to bear in mind, if you're being hard about this and realistic, is that Emmanuel Macron is not going to be there for a very long period of time. And Andy Burnham will certainly be planning on being there beyond the next French presidential election. So he's got to build that relationship. It's really important. The relationship with France more generally, I believe, is incredibly important for the uk, And Andy Burnham has to build those relationships with leaders in France, in Germany, in the United States and elsewhere, because he is now our Prime Minister. I think he has the sort of personal skills to do that, but what I'd like to see is what the policies are behind it.
- [21:23]
Anne McElvoy
But what about the role of Hamish Falconer, who's just coming into to post. The idea is to combine the role of Europe Minister, but bring it back much more into the Foreign Office family. I'm sure you'll be pleased about that, because I believe that anyone who's been senior in the Foreign Office, as you've been, somehow quite likes to have Europe policy more aligned with the foreign in office as a whole. He got a warm welcome, Hamish Falconer, from the EU ambassador in London, but he's only elected a couple of years ago. He's been Minister for the Middle East. Do you think he's the right appointment? What's your take on that?
- [21:58]
Simon Fraser
Well, first of all, I would like to pay tribute to the work that Nick Thomas Simmons has done, because I think he has pushed this agenda. But clearly he was close to Keir Starmer and he's one of those who hasn't kept his role. Hamish is a very able guy. He's done a good job on the Middle east and I have no doubt that he will be effective in this role. Frankly, I don't myself care hugely about where this is positioned in government. It's nice for the Foreign Office to be involved in it, and I think that's right. But after all, this is a cross government agenda. If you're going to build the relationship with the EU back, all departments across different areas of policy are involved. So what I'm most interested in is effective coordination, clear policymaking and driving that policy forward with commitment. That's what I want to see.
- [22:42]
Anne McElvoy
One of the things that Andy Burnham is going to face, he's left his Home Secretary in her post party for this reason. That's a small boat crossing the Channel. Those numbers are down quite substantially, down from 2025, but they are still a large volume of people, over 12,000 arriving this year. We know that voters have responded very, very badly to this. Possibly an area where you could say some pro Europeans and those, you know, in the upper echelons of what we now call the elites maybe kind of missed this point. And anyway, it's come home very much to haunt the government. Do you think that enough been done on that to take the edge out of it on the right of politics and the rise of reform in Britain without basically stopping the boats, which was, after all, the Rishi Sunak era pledge.
- [23:32]
Simon Fraser
Look, it is really important. It matters a lot in British politics. The numbers are down, I agree, and indeed, net migration, immigration as a whole is down in this country. But you're right, it is a key issue and the government needs to focus on it. I think we have to work with the French on it. And I welcome the fact that we have at least some limited agreement on the one in, one out scheme, which is continuing. You know, we can't. We have to work together on this and not sort of accuse each other across the channel of not doing the right thing. But the other thing that we do have to remember in this country is, you know, we've got a big problem with this. But if you look at Italy, Spain and others, they're facing even bigger problems of illegal immigration. So again, it's a shared problem.
- [24:11]
Anne McElvoy
Shared problem, Sylvia. But you're holding out for better things down the line here.
- [24:16]
Sylvie Bullard
Again, we need trust to solve the problem of migration. But I would never say to the people that we can stop migrations. It's irresponsible. We can try to handle this tragedy and with all the human dimension of it in a way that is correct and that actually takes into account the willingness of our population not to be overwhelmed. But as Simon just said, Africa is going to have billions of young people, more in the next decades. So we need to reorganize our vision for of the future, also on this issue, without entering in a demagogy that is not acceptable.
- [25:00]
Anne McElvoy
As we move to a close, I might try to convince you that one bit of cultural small steps policy or an initiative might work to close our ties, particularly with France. But overall, Britain and the eu, there's great excitement here about the transfer of the Bayeux Tapestry to the British Museum. Just about. If you sell your children and your dog and your house, you might be able to get a ticket, do you think? Something like that. The Bayeux Tapestry, of course, lots of images of warfare in there, gory warfare, but that it could renew the spirit of Entente cordiale nonetheless.
- [25:37]
Sylvie Bullard
What do you think on the Tapestry de Bayeux? You know what is behind the Tapisrie? It is trust, because there was a very strong movement in France not to send the Tapisrie de Bayeux to the uk. And it's very important that people realize that we have a common history and that some of the difficulties some people think are not something we can overcome are very, very little in comparison. So let's go and see the Tapisserie de Bayeux in London or in Normandy. And let's go above all, in the future together, because what the new prime ministers may have to face, like Mr. Macron or the Sussexe, is a war in Europe, and we are already at war because of climate change. So this is the, the level of seriousness we should really keep in mind,
- [26:31]
Anne McElvoy
yeah, that is a legacy of 1066. You're quite right to bring up that serious point as well as my lighter one about the tapestry. The only other thing, Sammy, before I get your your thought on that, I bet you're going to be. You'll be ahead of that queue to see that tapestry. I can't imagine you're going to miss out on that one, are you?
- [26:46]
Simon Fraser
Well, I haven't got a ticket yet, but I very much like to see it. I do actually think the point is it may be more important in the UK than in France, but I suspect that this is going to be something which resonates a lot with people. As in the past, major cultural exhibitions have galvanized people. So I think it's good. And I would go back to my point. I mean, I worked in the British Embassy in Paris for almost six years. I've worked in the European Commission for seven years. I think that our relationship with France, with Germany, with other countries and with the European Union are really important and things that remind us of our shared history and indeed our shared interests and the shared risks that we face are very important.
- [27:23]
Anne McElvoy
Sylvie Cullard and Simon Fraser with distinctive and sometimes contrasting views of how the UK and EU reconnection should go forward. But thank you both for coming onto the Weekender podcast with me.
- [27:37]
Simon Fraser
Thank you very much.
- [27:39]
Anne McElvoy
If you've got any questions about Andy Burnham's new government or want to comment on what you've heard on this episode in your own vision for the UK's reconnection connection with Europe, send us a voice note or a message on WhatsApp. You'll find the details in our show notes or write to us at podcastolitico eu. And while you're at it, please follow rate and review us wherever you get your podcasts. The Weekender lives in the Brussels Playbook podcast feed, so subscribing there really helps. I'm Anne McElrovoy, the senior producer. With me is Peter Snowden, and Sarah Wheaton will be back with you next week.