EU Scream Ep.120: Hungary’s Deepening Dependency on Russian Oil

Date: October 7, 2025
Host: James Cantor
Guest: Attila Steiner (Hungarian State Secretary for Energy, Fidesz party)

Episode Overview

This episode delves into Hungary's increasing reliance on Russian crude oil, in stark contrast to European Union (EU) efforts to curtail such dependencies amid Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. Host James Cantor interviews Attila Steiner, key government advocate for Hungary’s energy policy, to unpack Hungary's rationale for their growing Russian oil imports, the contentious pipeline politics, and political ramifications within Hungary and the broader EU.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. EU Sanctions and Hungary's Exemption

• Background: Post-invasion of Ukraine, the EU banned Russian crude oil imports. Hungary and Slovakia, due to high dependency, were temporarily exempted via the Druzhba (Brotherhood) pipeline.
• Contradiction: Despite other states ending Russian oil imports, Hungary's dependency has actually grown.
• Main Justification: Hungary claims practical and economic constraints prevent diversification, prioritizing “supply security” over EU norms.

2. Alternative Supply Routes and Their Challenges

• The Adria (Janaf) Pipeline: Connects Hungary to Croatian ports for non-Russian oil (e.g. Kazakh crude).
• Obstacles According to Steiners:
  • Skyrocketing transit tariffs (up 2.5x since 2022), which make Adria economically nonviable.

    “Purely on business terms, there is no company who would use that pipeline, because Druzhba is much more cheaper.” (Attila Steiner, 08:39)

  • Claims of technical limitations, with Hungary disputing Croatian data on Adria's sustained capacity.
  • Refineries need expensive retrofitting to process non-Russian crude (~$4.5 billion).

3. Expanding Russian Oil Infrastructure

• Planned Interconnector: Hungary and Serbia are collaborating to build a new pipeline—effectively extending Druzhba—which would primarily carry Russian crude.
  • Justified as "diversification" for Serbia (currently with only one supply route) and backup for Hungary.
  • Critics see it as undermining EU energy independence goals.
  • Timing and full financial commitment for the project remain unclear (“the negotiations are in quite an advanced phase” – Steiner, 10:57).

4. Economic Motives and Political Calculations

• Profit Motive: The private conglomerate MOL (majority Hungarian) heavily influences import decisions and resists loss-inducing alternatives, complicating state-led strategy.
• Taxation: Despite cheaper Russian oil, Hungarian fuel prices remain above EU average; part of the margin is captured via government taxes.
• Election Pressure: Fidesz trails Peter Magyar’s Tisza party, whose platform favors a swift Russian oil ban. Energy prices and "sovereignty" are central political battlegrounds.

5. Diplomatic Maneuvering and Exemption Maintenance

• US Perspective: After direct contact between Viktor Orban and Donald Trump, the former US president ceased pressuring Hungary on Russian oil, allegedly understanding Hungary's geographic/economic constraints.
• Merkel’s Support: Angela Merkel, still influential in EU conservative circles, reportedly endorsed Hungary’s predicament after meeting Orban in Budapest.

  “The only place where they don't understand it, this is actually Brussels.” (Steiner, 21:04)

• Future Sanctions: Steiner anticipates Hungary’s exemption under EU sanctions will continue, leveraging the need for unanimous consent.

  “It will be maintained, I hope. Otherwise we cannot support and it's a unanimity vote...” (27:50)

6. Security Risks and Supply Vulnerability

• Druzhba Pipeline Threats: Ukrainian attacks on Druzhba components highlight serious supply risks, which Hungary frames as direct threats to national (and EU) security.

  “If there is any attack against Druzhba, we consider it as a direct attack against Hungary, because that's our supply security.” (Steiner, 24:34)

7. Refinery Conversion and EU Support Issues

• Retrofitting Refineries: Hungary requests significant EU financial aid to retool refineries for non-Russian crude.
• Commission Inaction: The EU has not provided such support nor intervened on Adria tariff complaints.

8. National Sovereignty vs. EU Solidarity

• Election Framing: For Fidesz, the upcoming election is about “sovereignty” vs. relinquishing national control for EU-dictated policy on energy.

  “Citizens have to choose whether we will represent politics, which is for Hungary… or we will compromise…” (Steiner, 17:37)

• Opposition Critique: Tisza Party and supporters see continued Russian imports as unacceptable amid the Ukraine war.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Physical and Economic Constraints:

  "It's not a discussion about feelings and taste. It's a discussion… about physical realities and geographical conditions."
  (Attila Steiner, 05:28)

• On Adria Pipeline Tariffs:

  "Purely on business terms, there is no company who would use that pipeline because Durjiba is much more cheaper."
  (Steiner, 08:39)

• On Retrofitting Refineries:

  "We have to adjust the technology in more than 20 facilities within the refinery. Of course it has an investment cost around 4,500 million US dollars. If there is an expectation then there should be a help. But there is no help, no help at all."
  (Steiner, 09:11)

• On Eurostat Data Showing Rising Dependency:

  "This is the super expensive tariffs for transit on the alternative pipe. On business terms you don't use that pipeline because it's so expensive."
  (Steiner, 12:10)

• On Supply Security:

  "We have a very firm position…that for us we have to ensure, not opposition parties shall ensure, supply security."
  (Steiner, 17:56)

• On Perceived Lack of EU Empathy:

  "Merkel…also acknowledged that, yes, it's much more difficult for Hungary since it's a landlocked country. This is also clear for Donald Trump. This is not clear for European Union leaders."
  (Steiner, 21:47)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• EU Sanctions and Pipeline Exemptions – 00:26–06:46
• Trump's and Merkel's Interventions – 04:59; 21:04–21:47
• Adria Pipeline Capacity and Tariffs Debate – 07:41–10:16; 22:03–24:13
• Planned Hungary-Serbia Interconnector – 10:27–11:28
• Sharp Rise in Russian Crude Share – 11:28–12:10
• Domestic Political Tension and Election Stakes – 16:57–17:56
• Refinery Retrofitting and No EU Funding – 10:16; 26:14–27:39
• Future of Exemptions and Sanctions Process – 27:39–27:59

Summary for New Listeners

This episode provides a rare insider look into the fraught intersection of EU values, energy geopolitics, and domestic pressures in Hungary, revealing how practical concerns, profit motives, and political calculations preserve Russia's crucial oil revenues. Hungary's narrative emphasizes “physical” and “economic” realities overruling EU solidarity, with pipeline politics serving as both shield and weapon in the wider struggle for Europe’s energy future and democracy.

Attila Steiner’s forthrightness, coupled with detailed questioning by James Cantor, makes this a key episode for understanding one of Europe’s flashpoints as the continent strives for unity under extraordinary external and internal pressure.