Ep.124: Machiavellian Moment in the Arctic

EU Scream | January 15, 2026
Host: James Kantor
Guest: Luuk van Middelaar, author; speechwriter; founding director, Brussels Institute for Geopolitics

Overview

This episode explores the existential challenges facing the European Union as global geopolitics shift—markedly with the U.S. under Trump abandoning the longstanding postwar order. Host James Kantor and guest Luuk van Middelaar dive into how Europe must confront its so-called “Machiavellian moment,” a time of reckoning where survival requires setting aside old taboos about power, interests, and statecraft. Arctic security, especially the intensifying contest over Greenland, is a case study of these urgent tests.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. A New Era for European Geopolitics

• Trigger for Change: The founding of the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics (BIG) reflects a “Machiavellian moment”—Europe needs strategy, not just rules ([01:35]).
  • “All these concepts which are at the center of geopolitical thinking—interests, strategy, power—they were taboo within EU machinery.” – Luuk van Middelaar [01:35]
• The shift from market-building and regulation to survival in a world of resurgent power politics.

2. Fragmentation & Feasibility of a “Geopolitical Europe”

• While BIG is supported by core Western states, notable holdouts (Poland, Baltic States) point to East-West hesitations on defense and sovereignty ([03:35]).
  • Budget limitations, shifting alliances—Poland's involvement “comes and goes” ([04:19]).
  • Fast, epochal change is possible: what was unthinkable a year ago becomes mainstream ([04:19]).

3. The NATO Vicious Circle and US Retreat

• Many Eastern states insist NATO must be preserved, which prevents developing alternatives ([05:53]).
  • “We cannot do nothing because it will scare the Americans and they will walk out on us.” – Luuk van Middelaar [06:23]
• Trump’s America now poses a potential direct threat: not just abandoning Europe, but actively seeking to undermine the EU from within ([07:45]).

4. The “Machiavellian Moment” in Europe

• Europe faces public recognition of its own mortality as a political project ([10:01]).
  • “The idea of a Machiavellian moment is that it is the moment when a polity, a political order, discovers that it is actually mortal...” – Luuk van Middelaar [10:01]
• Existential threats (Brexit, Trump, Putin) can stir new strategic energy.
• Self-doubt, post-colonial guilt, and fears of past imperialism hinder assertive action ([12:24]).
  • “There is a kind of lingering colonial or post-colonial guilt... it influences debates on migration, on how we relate to Africa, to Latin America and Asia.” – Luuk van Middelaar [12:24]
• Risk: over-caution breeds powerlessness and reliance on the U.S.

5. From Universalism to Realism

• Despite symbolic nods to realists (e.g., the Justus Lipsius building), EU culture remains wedded to universalist, idealistic founding values ([16:31]).
  • The “end of history” optimism is gone ([17:23]).
  • Now, it’s about defending the European achievement rather than exporting a utopia.

6. The Return of Great Power Politics—Greenland as Flashpoint

• Trump's robust application of the Monroe Doctrine means Europe can no longer rely on the U.S. to uphold the multilateral post-WWII order ([20:10]).
  • “Trump is the first president...who wanted to and still wants to destroy the EU.” – Luuk van Middelaar [20:10]
• Greenland is a strategic pawn. The U.S. push for control risks destabilizing EU security ([29:29]).

7. Europe’s Military Awakening—Is It Happening?

• Europe is “talking itself down unnecessarily;” it has more power than it thinks ([24:05]).
• Urgent need for armaments autonomy—car factories converting to weapons, tech spin-offs ([28:22]).
  • “We have outsourced this basic requirement of a state...to defend your territory to the Americans for too long. And we’re doing it now.” – Luuk van Middelaar [28:22]
• Denmark feels betrayed by the U.S. and is shifting quickly to European suppliers ([26:33]).

8. Greenland Scenarios: Deterrence vs. Compromise

• Deterrence Option: European military presence in Greenland as a signal to Trump ([34:36]).
  • “As long as Trump thinks that Greenland is just as easy a ride, he might do it... send over... a military mission... with the French, the Brits, some Nordic states... That would immediately change the calculus for Trump.” – Luuk van Middelaar [34:36]
• Compromise Option: Offering the U.S. full military access, but not sovereignty ([38:27]).
  • Luuk doubts this would satisfy Trump, who wants ownership, not just bases.

9. Institutional Innovations: European Security Council

• Floating the idea of a 100,000-strong European force, Security Council of core states—a break with sacred EU principles of equality ([41:26]).
  • “This has always been taboo... but when you talk about these kind of strategic military issues, it doesn’t make sense, politically, to say that Malta and Luxembourg should have the same weight and presence as France and Germany.” – Luuk van Middelaar [41:57]
• A sign Brussels may be ready for (uncomfortable) pragmatic solutions.

10. Pragmatism vs. Blueprints

• EU must avoid rigid federal blueprints, embracing confederal and pragmatic arrangements as needed ([44:03]).
  • “Do not forget, you and I have the euro in our pocket... But on a matter like defense, war and peace... these kind of decisions have to be taken by the governments collectively.” – Luuk van Middelaar [44:03]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Europe’s old worldview versus present challenges:
  “This whole idea that borders are outdated and level playing field... the moment of existential shock like Brexit or the election of Trump... We have to act, we have to do stuff, we have to decide things right now, even if we may get it wrong.” – Luuk van Middelaar [10:01]
• On the pain and necessity of European rearmament:
  “We have been, in a way, a little bit childish, a little bit spoiled.” – Luuk van Middelaar [28:22]
• On US–Greenland ambitions and risk calculations:
  “What Trump likes is low risk, high visibility operations... as long as he thinks Greenland is just as easy, he might do it.” – Luuk van Middelaar [33:59]
• On EU institutional innovation:
  “This Security Council would be a little bit like in the UN... always been taboo in Brussels... but when you talk about these strategic military issues, it doesn’t make sense, politically, to say that Malta and Luxembourg should have the same weight and presence as France and Germany.” – Luuk van Middelaar [41:57]
• On the Machiavellian moment:
  “The idea... is that it is the moment when a polity discovers it is actually mortal, that it can disappear.” – Luuk van Middelaar [10:01]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [01:35] – Why geopolitical strategy was taboo in the EU for so long
• [05:53] – The NATO trap: fear of U.S. abandonment blocks alternatives
• [10:01] – “Machiavellian moment” explained—existential discovery
• [12:24] – Guilt in European identity: WWII, colonialism, migration
• [17:23] – EU’s historical tilt towards utopian model, end of history
• [20:10] – Trump’s Monroe Doctrine and the death of old multilateralism
• [24:05] – Europe’s actual military capacity and the need for autonomy
• [29:29] – Why Greenland is now central to the existential drama
• [34:36] – Deterrence: sending European military forces to Greenland
• [38:27] – Why a deal for access won’t placate Trump
• [41:26] – Proposal for a European Security Council and combined force
• [44:03] – Limits of federalism, case for pragmatic confederal approaches

Tone

Serious, urgent, but self-aware; the conversation does not sugarcoat the risks or Europe’s constraints, frequently acknowledging painful ironies, EU dilemmas, and uncomfortable trade-offs. There is a recurring note of “strategic improvisation” rather than overconfidence.

For Listeners Who Haven’t Heard the Episode

This episode is an essential exploration of the profound crisis confronting the EU. It brings clarity to why—and how—the continent must confront strategic realities, outgrown reliance on American power, and finally step into the realm of hard choices. The Greenland crisis is only the most acute example of the wider “Machiavellian moment” now upon Europe.