How Venezuela Hit Rock Bottom

Summary

Everybody’s Business

Episode: How Venezuela Hit Rock Bottom
Date: January 9, 2026
Hosts: Max Chafkin & Stacey Vanek Smith

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Overview

This episode dives deep into Venezuela’s dramatic fall from prosperity to crisis, unpacking the key economic missteps and geopolitical turmoil that led up to the U.S.-orchestrated removal of President Nicolás Maduro. Hosts Max Chafkin and Stacey Vanek Smith are joined by veteran Latin American economics journalist David Papadopoulos, who charts Venezuela’s decades-long decline. The episode also explores how weight-loss drugs are impacting the restaurant industry and ends on lighter notes, from New York’s congestion pricing to optimizing love in Silicon Valley.

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Key Segments & Insights

1. U.S. Economy, Trump’s Policy Floaters, and Hot News Items

Timestamps: 01:34–06:00

• Anemic U.S. Job Market: “We got some very disappointing jobs numbers just in and hiring is totally anemic. Layoffs are rising.” (Stacey, 01:45)
• Trump’s “Truthing Tear”: President Trump took to his social media platform to discuss executive pay at defense contractors and proposed a ban on private equity firms buying single-family homes—a move with odd bipartisan populist appeal, impacting stocks like Blackstone.
  • “No one knows if this is going to happen ... but it raises all sorts of important questions about why have rents gone up so much, why have home prices gone up so much, and, you know, Trump is at least talking about maybe doing something about that.” (Max, 02:30)
• Supreme Court Tariff Ruling: Thousands of companies, including Costco, are suing over “Liberation Day tariffs,” with a Supreme Court decision imminent.

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2. New York City Congestion Pricing: Reactions & Data

Timestamps: 04:30–08:37

• The Policy: $9 tolls instituted to enter midtown Manhattan, targeting both traffic and MTA funding.
• Results: Traffic down 11%; $550 million raised for the MTA. Mixed feelings from New Yorkers, with complaints about cost and equity.
  • “Basically, it’s working—it’s lowering traffic, it’s raising money, doing the things advocates wanted it to do. ... It doesn’t seem like people are that mad about it. They’re just paying the nine bucks and moving on.” (Max, 05:47)
• Vox Pop Highlights:
  • “If you make it more expensive, then less people can do it. If you just basically enable people who have more money to enjoy the roads better, just perpetuating inequality.” (Anonymous New Yorker, 07:15)
  • “Tolls and stuff like that are unconstitutional because it restricts freedom of movement. Like, if I didn’t have $25 to go through the Lincoln Tunnel, what do I do?” (Anonymous New Yorker, 07:15)
  • Max: “I have found the congestion pricing like, mildly annoying. Like, every time I cross that barrier, I think, mm, that’s $9 I no longer have. But honestly, I’ve just accepted it.” (08:13)
• Hosts’ Take: Max finds it a mild nuisance; Stacey notes it’s more a New York reality than scandal.

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3. Deep Dive: How Venezuela Hit Rock Bottom

Timestamps: 09:01–21:36
Guest: David Papadopoulos

The Rise & Fall

• From Wealth to Ruin: Venezuela was, until the late 1970s, one of Latin America’s wealthiest and most stable nations, thanks largely to oil.
  • “Oil was discovered there early in the 20th century ... so too, as a result, was largely the Venezuelan economy.” (David, 10:44)
• The 1973 Oil Shock: Sudden spike—oil rises from $4 to $48/barrel. Venezuela embarks on a spending/nationalization spree.
  • “They go on unbelievable spending binge that includes the nationalization of the oil industry ... with all this wealth they have, this was the grand Venezuela, right? Just incredibly wealthy.” (David, 11:19–12:54)
• Downturn & Hangover: U.S. inflation fight (Volcker era) crashes oil prices back to ~$10/barrel in early 1980s. Venezuela’s government payrolls and spending become unsustainable, public sector bloats, and economic decline begins—a “20-year hangover.”
  • “Here begins ... a 20-year economic slide.” (David, 14:07)
• Chávez and the Repeat Cycle: In 1998, Hugo Chávez, a radical outsider, rides widespread discontent into power. The 2000s oil boom repeats the old errors—massive nationalization and crippling state-run oil company PDVSA.
  • “Chavez makes all the same mistakes ... On top of that, he commits the sin of all sins. He kills the goose that laid the golden egg. He kills the state run oil company.” (David, 16:16)
• Collapse under Maduro: After Chávez’s death (2013), Maduro inherits impossible economic and oil sector problems; inflation enters hyperdrive.
  • Max: “The amount of inflation is just sort of mind boggling.” (17:47)
  • David: “There were times...where Venezuela’s inflation got to like 500,000%. The value of those Bolivars became just utterly worthless.” (18:29)
  • Amusing note: Bloomberg journalists created the “Cafe con Leche Index” to track inflation by the price of a cup of coffee.
• Maduro’s Downfall & U.S. Takeover: Episode is triggered by the U.S.’s snatch of Maduro. Uncertainty reigns over Venezuela’s oil future and whether U.S. control will lower global oil prices. Papadopoulos is skeptical: “I mean, seeing is believing right now. Venezuela on the global stage is a tiny producer of oil.” (21:10)

Notable Quotes

• “When oil goes from $4 to $48 ... in Venezuela, they’re like, ‘Holy, we’re unbelievably rich.’” (David, 12:01)
• “Venezuelans are traveling to Miami for one-day shopping trips ... the bolivar was such a valuable currency...” (David, 12:54)
• “The regime was too embarrassed [by the economic data] ... so we actually created the Bloomberg Cafe con Leche index...” (David, 18:29)
• “Are you seeing any US oil companies jumping up and down ready to sink tens of billions of dollars into Venezuela? I’m not.” (David, 21:24)

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4. GLP-1 Drugs’ Surprising Impact on the Restaurant Industry

Timestamps: 21:46–35:33
Guest: Dina Shanker

• Revolutionizing Resolutions: Use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (e.g., Ozempic) has doubled; over 10% of Americans now use them.
  • “Since GLP1 started really making headlines, the food industry has been trying to figure out what that means for them.” (Dina, 23:05)
• Retailers vs Restaurants: Bad news for grocery stores and snack brands (fewer impulse buys, less snack demand). But restaurants, especially casual dining brands, are benefitting.
  • “People on GLP1 spend more than people not on GLP1s at restaurants.” (Dina, 24:01)
• Why the Shift? Meal planning and “food noise” disappear for GLP-1 users, driving spontaneous restaurant visits. Smaller restaurant portions have become both a business strategy and a consumer trend (Olive Garden launching small pasta bowls, fast food like Del Taco offering “micro meals,” and Chipotle’s “protein cups”).
  • “All that food noise turns off ... it might mean days of shopping, list planning, taking things out of the freezer ... that all just disappears. So ... what do you do? You go to a restaurant.” (Dina, 25:02)
• Changing Menus: Restaurants repackage existing ingredients into smaller, more protein-rich, GLP-1-friendly offerings.
  • “It’s the same food, it’s just less of it ... and that is good for a GLP1 user, but it’s good for other people, too. It’s good for the restaurant.” (Dina, 26:32)
  • “Chipotle just ... unveiled a new menu item ... its first ever high protein menu ... a tiny bowl of meat.” (Max, 32:13)
• Shrinkflation Flip: Reduced portions framed as health-oriented options; helps restaurants control costs while adjusting to changing demand.

Notable Moments

• Max (sarcastic): “Are there any good outcomes at an Olive Garden?” (31:01)
• Dina: “Their breadsticks are certainly endless.” (26:10)
• Stacey: “It feels like part of a kit that has yet to be assembled.” (34:00, on Chipotle’s protein cup)
• Dina: “There’s something, like, just gross about the protein craze in general.” (34:17)

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5. Underrated Stories: Old Judges & Optimizing Love

Timestamps: 35:39–40:28

• Very Old Judges: NYC’s Maduro case is presided over by Judge Alvin Hellerstein, age 92.
  • “He’s got a ton of experience. ... as long as he does a good job, I’m all for it.” (Stacey, 36:44)
• Silicon Valley & the Quest to Optimize Love: Tech execs develop data-driven ways to “streamline the messy matters of the heart.”
  • Max quotes Keeper’s social media manager: “If the woman is about half a standard deviation more agreeable than the man, that’s the optimal point for relationship durability.” (38:45)
  • “My brain is still on cuddle parties.” (Stacey, 39:46)
  • “Just maybe, put on some shoes, wash your face and put on some shoes.” (Stacey, 40:03)

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Memorable Quotes

• “Oil was discovered there early in the 20th century ... Oil goes from $4 to $48 and, in Venezuela, they’re like, holy, we’re unbelievably rich. ... They go on an unbelievable spending binge that includes the nationalization of the oil industry.”
  — David Papadopoulos (10:44–12:00)

• “There were times over the past decade where Venezuela’s inflation got the like 500,000%. ... They would just weigh [money] on their deli scale.”
  — David Papadopoulos (18:29)

• “People on GLP1 spend more than people not on GLP1s at restaurants.”
  — Dina Shanker (24:01)

• “If the woman is about half a standard deviation more agreeable than the man, that’s the optimal point for relationship durability.”
  — Max quoting Keeper’s social media manager (38:45)

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Episode Structure & Timestamps

• Main Theme/Opening Banter: 00:12–01:34
• Economic & Political News Roundup: 01:34–08:37 (News items, Supreme Court, congestion pricing)
• Venezuela Deep Dive with David Papadopoulos: 09:01–21:36
• Weight-Loss Drugs & Restaurant Impacts with Dina Shanker: 21:46–35:33
• Underrated Stories (Old Judge, Optimizing Love): 35:39–40:28

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Tone & Style

Conversational, sharp, occasionally irreverent and wry—Max and Stacey maintain a brisk journalistic tone, but frequently interject personal takes, humor, and disbelief at policy or technology absurdities.

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This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the economic lessons of Venezuela, the future of urban policy, and the strange new world where tech, diet drugs, and relationships intersect.

Transcript

[A]

Bloomberg audio studios podcasts radio news.

[B]

Welcome to everybody's business. I'm Max Chavkin.

[C]

And I'm Stacey Vanek Smith. And Max, in last week's episode, we decided to predict the future, what 2026 would hold. And as it turns out, we are already wrong.

[B]

We're a week in, did not have the situation in Venezuela on our bingo cards, but luckily David Papadopoulos, expert in all things economic in Latin America, is going to be here later in the show to tell us basically how we got here.

[C]

We will also be joined by the wonderful Dina Shanker, who will talk to us about many New Year's resolutions are made up of wanting to get in better shape, wanting to lose a little weight. Now, of course, with GLP1s, that whole equation has changed and the restaurant industry is actually cashing in on it, which is very interesting. Dina will join us to talk about that.

[B]

Yeah, an interesting and arguably gross portion of the show. But we'll, we'll get there. And for our underrated stories, we are going to continue our coverage of very old people doing very important jobs.

[C]

Absolutely.

[B]

And I have a story, Stacy, that will help people. Anyone's trying to, you know, meet a new person in 2026, they're going to get tips and tricks from some of the smartest people in Silicon Valley. I can't say that any of these ideas are good, but it is kind of a good.

[C]

But our ideas.

[A]

Okay.

[C]

No bad ideas. No bad ideas.

[B]

Okay. Stacey, before we get to all of the bigger stories, wanted to hit a couple of news items, starting with the US Economy. It's early. What, what, what have we learned so far?

[C]

I think the big story right now is the job market. We got some very disappointing jobs numbers just in and hiring is totally anemic. Layoffs are rising. And I, I think that's going to be just one of the big stories this year.

[B]

Yeah. The two bits of news I wanted to mention before we get to the meat of the show, one is that Trump went on a sort of truthing tear yesterday.

[C]

We're recording social, his social media platform.

[B]

Exactly. He was, he was truth and right and left on Wednesday. Yesterday, as we're recording this, one of these was around executive pay for people who run defense contractors. The other is a proposed ban on private equity firms buying up single family homes. Yes.

[C]

This is very interesting because like, I, I, this was very under the radar for me.

[B]

Yeah. And I think this is an issue that is big for both populist right wingers as well as populist left Wingers, like, I haven't looked to see what Elizabeth Warren has said, but the kind of, like that wing of the Democratic Party has tended to like this kind of thing. Also the kind of, you know, far right of the Republican Party, kind of the J.D. vance area of the Republican Party. Now, I want to say, first of all, Blackstone stock, Blackstone, one of the big investors in buying up single family homes and renting them to people, immediately fell yesterday. It fell like 9%. It, it gained a little bit. It closed the day, I think it was down 5 or 6%. No one knows if this is going to happen. And, and I think we should kind of put a pin in this and maybe talk about it, you know, sometime later this year, because it raises all sorts of kind of important questions about, like, why have rents gone up so much? Why have home prices gone up so much? And, you know, Trump is at least talking about maybe doing something about that.

[C]

I think that could be kind of dangerous because housing demand is so low right now and so few people are willing to take out a loan at this moment, when interest rates are pretty high, that the private equity firms, although they might not be our favorite source of housing demand, are at least a source of housing demand. And I don't know if we want to mess with the housing market in that way right now, but certainly a lot to talk about in the future.

[B]

Yeah, again. And then the last thing is we are getting very close to a Supreme Court ruling on these tariffs. Remember, there were. We talked about this. I don't know what, like, six months ago, a trade court in the US Invalidated these Liberation Day tariffs. This has been working through the Supreme Court. A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that companies, many companies, had started suing the Trump administration, including Costco. That number is up to a thousand. We think a Supreme Court ruling on these tariffs could come as early as Friday. And Stacey, if that happens, I'm going to be calling you about an emergency episode.

[C]

You can call me. You can call as many times as you want, Max, Jeff, I'll take the call. How about that? I'll take.

[B]

All right. And I'll take that. Promise. Okay. And, and Stacey, the other thing is we got some numbers about congestion pricing in New York City.

[D]

Yes.

[C]

Now, this was like, there is a zone in Manhattan where traffic is notoriously bad. You have a car, Max. So you know this?

[B]

I am a motorist.

[C]

Yes, you are motorist. You know this more intimately than I do. But this was put in place early last year, I believe, and it was intended to both help the traffic situation in the middle of Manhattan, but also raise money.

[B]

Yeah, super controversial. And in New York, we wound up with policy that pretty much no one liked. Donald Trump was mad about this, and.

[C]

A lot of small business owners were mad about it. Commuters were mad about it a lot.

[B]

Also, a lot of the supporters of congestion pricing were mad because they said that the price. So right now it costs $9 to go below 63rd street in New York City. But, Stacy, we got some data, and it's starting to look pretty good for congestion pricing. Traffic is down 11% from the previous year. They've also raised a lot of money, $550 million in revenue, which is.

[C]

They've raised like more than half a billion dollars.

[B]

Yeah. And that's enough, as I understand it, for the sort of the. The mta, the entity that administers the subways and the trains and the buses here in New York, to do the capital improvements that they wanted to do.

[C]

So, like, that I am very interested in.

[B]

Basically, it's working like, it's, it's lowering traffic, it's. It's raising money, it's doing the things that advocates wanted it to do. And it doesn't seem. Now, this is. This is my guess, and maybe we'll find out a little bit more in a second, but it doesn't seem like people are that mad about it. They're just paying the nine bucks and moving on with their lives.

[C]

Although we did want to hear specifically from New Yorkers. You didn't want to just say word on the street. Exactly. So we sent our wonderful producer, Charlie Gorvin out into the field to talk with real life New Yorkers about how they feel about congestion pricing. I think it's stupid. I don't think that New York State should charge us $25 to travel in.

[B]

Our own city that we live in. This is one of the best cities to live in. So if you want to have the.

[A]

Privilege to come in New York City, you should pay.

[D]

Increasing the tolls and stuff like that. I feel like it doesn't do anything for the people that has to travel out of the city to get to their job.

[B]

This is like additional tax on the people. Like, what the. Do you notice less traffic? Not as much, because it's still New York City. You know, a lot of a people.

[A]

Yeah, a lot of people are doing.

[B]

Whatever they got to do.

[C]

I think I've kind of noticed fewer cars, but I don't think it's great because it ices out people who have less money. From the city. It hasn't stopped me from coming in, but it's really expensive.

[B]

What do you think the way forward is if it's not more taxation? If you make it more expensive, then less people can do it. If you just basically enable people who have more money to enjoy the roads.

[C]

Better, just perpetuating inequality. Tolls and stuff like that are unconstitutional. Constitutional because it restricts freedom of movement. Like, if I didn't have $25 to go through the Lincoln Tunnel, what do I do?

[B]

It just is what it is, man. New York City is a place that it doesn't stop.

[A]

Everybody complained about congestion prices, but now.

[B]

We just have to deal with it. I love the tolls are unconstitutional. Wow.

[C]

I mean, listen, I'm from Idaho. Lots of libertarians there. I feel like this.

[B]

Do you agree, Stacey? Are tolls unconstitutional? Are you ready to take this all the way to Washington?

[C]

I will say this. I hate tolls because in the west, we don't really have them.

[B]

All the roads are freeways. Yeah.

[C]

But I, logically speaking, cannot really argue against them.

[B]

As somebody who lives in New York City and drives a car sometimes, but not every day, I have found the congestion pricing, like, mildly annoying. Like, every time I cross that barrier, I think, mm, that's $9 I no longer have. But honestly, I've just accepted it.

[C]

But you also aren't like, living at the poverty line or anything like that.

[B]

No, and I'm also not commuting every day. And I might feel differently if I were driving in every single day. This is more like a once a week kind of.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Charge for me. Not a everyday charge.

[C]

It was just like that guy said, it is what it is. If you live in New York, you just. This is just part of the deal. Just fees, prices going up.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, that was kind of my take. And then of course, we had your take, which, which is never sovereign citizen forever.

[C]

That was not my take. I just noted it. It was a noted take.

[B]

Stacey, as we mentioned at the top, been kind of a crazy week or so in geopolitical news.

[C]

Yes.

[B]

The U.S. as most people listen to this know, amassed a, A, a sort of military operation in Venezuela effectively snatch president and. And his wife there at the Metropolitan Detention center in Brooklyn. Chaos, it seems on the streets also, there's economic chaos. And we wanted to kind of unpack this with the guy we go to when we're trying to understand a complicated South American economy, my friend, former Elon Inc. Co host David Papadopoulos. David, how are you?

[A]

Max, Stacy. Happy New Year.

[C]

To you both, Happy New Year. And you are at this very moment, in fact, in Argentina, is that right?

[A]

Yeah, I just flew right over Venezuela. We blew that one. I should have parachuted out of the plane.

[B]

So not that close, but on the right continent. But you do have a lot of experience covering the Venezuelan economy, right?

[A]

Yeah. I mean, it's where I cut my teeth as a journalist three decades ago. It was a very different Venezuela then. It was the Venezuela that Hugo Chavez and his successor Nicolas Madur are about to take over. But yes, it's a country that I've been covering throughout my career, for sure.

[B]

So we don't know where this is going to go. There's. Right now there's a lot of discussion about, okay, well, what happens to the Venezuelan oil? Donald Trump has said he is the US Is sort of taking it, which seems strange. I'm not sure legal, but any case. And there are a lot of bond traders and oil company executives, a lot of people kind of in the world of business who are making moves. But we want to understand like how we got here, because Venezuela was once like a very rich country.

[A]

Absolutely. I mean, Venezuela, for decades, really most of the 20th century, certainly the first 70 some odd years of the 20th century, was a stable, wealthy country. Oil was discovered there early in the, in the 20th century, which is part of what led to a lot of that wealth. And you know, Max, oil, if you go back and look at historical charts, was really pretty ste. Stable for decades and decades. And so too, as a result, was largely the Venezuelan economy. They were.

[B]

You mean the price of oil was stable?

[A]

The price of oil. And so both in times of Venezuelan democracy, which kind of emerged in the 60s and the dictatorships that preceded it, the governments were pretty good for the most part. I mean, in 73, the price of oil goes bonkers. You get the Yom Kippur war and the US Backs Israel. The Arab states do not take well to that. They impose an oil embargo on the United States and the price of oil goes from $4 a barrel to $48 a barrel, unbelievably quickly. And none of what's happening today, the whole Trump Maduro thing, none of the stuff that you've seen or read about in recent months or years, none of it happens without the oil shock in 1973. Because in 1973, when oil goes from $4 to $48 and in Venezuela, they're like, holy, we're unbelievably rich. We're stupid rich. And they do something that in hindsight, wasn't so smart. They go out and they just go on unbelievable spending binge that includes the nationalization of the oil industry. They start nationalizing all sorts of companies, steel companies and phone companies, all sorts of things. With all this wealth they have, this.

[B]

Was the grand Venezuela, right? This is like it's good times and the government is sort of expansive and.

[A]

And just incredibly wealthy.

[B]

Nationalizing. Yeah.

[A]

This is the time when Venezuelans are traveling to Miami for one day shopping trips, right? The Venezuelan bolivar, which is now worthless essentially. So much so that you guys know I have it as some Venezuelan Bolivars on my desk in the office and I hand them out. Max has got some bolivars right there.

[B]

I've got one right here we can talk about later.

[A]

There was a time, actually this is the late 60s, even prior to the 73 boom, where the bolivar was such a valuable currency, currency that people wanted across the world. And in a James Bond movie, Thunderball, the villain with the missiles trained on the UN says, hey, you gotta pay me, otherwise I'm gonna blow up the UN and you're gonna pay me $100 million in either Swiss franc or Venezuelan bolivars.

[B]

The two best currencies Venezuelans were famous.

[A]

For, they were known as the tabarato dame dos.

[B]

Right?

[A]

Wherever they travel, that's cheap. I'll take two. Any event, Max, what happens is any with any great boom story, you know, the money goes your head, the boom goes bust. A few years later, what happens, Stacey? Your old pal Paul Volcker rides onto the scene.

[C]

Yeah. Raises interest rates, causes a recession in the US trying to battle inflation, trying.

[A]

To battle runaway US inflation in double digits. And Volcker does indeed crush inflation. But in the process, he absolutely blows up the price of oil in many commodities. And so the price of oil, which had gone from 4 to 48 absolutely plunges back to around somewhere around $10. And all that spending you had done and all that new lifestyle you Venezuela taken on at 48 a barrel and that you thought was like, hey, this is the new normal suddenly is no longer possible. And by the way, one of the things I didn't say is you've also added all these public sector government workers. The Venezuela that I get to in the 1990s still has an unbelievably large public sector, you know, huge payroll. So when oil plunges way back down, they can't pay the bills. And here begins, you know, a 20 year economic slide from 78, from the, when it goes boom in 78 all the way up, I would say basically to Chavez's election, Hugo Chavez's election in 1998, the 20 year hangover, but also.

[C]

The economy really tanks. I mean, this is beyond like a correction or a recession. From what I Understand right now, 80% of Venezuelans live below the poverty line and inflation reached levels that like are almost unimaginable.

[A]

What happens, you know, in the 80s and the 90s that leads to the rise of Chavez, which then Chavez gets you to Maduro and Maduro now finds himself in jail. And yes, there is a deep economic recession in the 1980s, Venezuelans find themselves increasingly poorer and poorer. And when. So Hugo Chavez, the radical young lieutenant colonel who tried to overthrow the government in the early 90s, charismatic and this and that, he's up for election in 98 and he's like not all that dissimilar to a Trump or a Javier Milei here in Argentina. He's this radical outsider with this radical message. And Venezuelans are like, give me him. And so Chavez sweeps into power, wildly popular, takes the world by storm, right? Becomes this big global figure for many years. And what happens during the 2000s? Basically the same thing that happened in 73. Oil goes parabolic, rises all the way to $145 a barrel. And Chavez makes all the same mistakes that they had made in the 70s. He spends it all, nationalizes unbelievable numbers of things. I mean, he just nationalizes. And by nationalizes, he purchases, you know, with government money. This is now a part of the government. Radio stations, TV stations, banks, I mean, you name it, he bought it. Cattle ranches, everything, right? And on top of that, he commits the sin of all sins. He kills the goose that laid the golden egg. He kills the state run oil company pdvesa, he starves it of money. He does not allow them to invest properly in new wells and in their infrastructure. There's an incredible brain drain. And Venezuela's oil production goes from, you know, over 3 million barrels a day, which is a good amount for countries its size, to collapses. Now, 20 some odd years later, all the way down to like half a million barrels a day, which you know, is nothing. Texas alone, they're pumping like 9 million barrels a day for crisis. So chavez dies in 2013 of cancer, suddenly, and he actually hands a ticking time bomb to his replacer, the aforementioned Nicolas Maduro.

[B]

Stacey talked about the poverty. And like David, you have these Bolivar notes that you keep on your desk, and you gave me one. And the great thing about not cleaning out your desk ever, which I don't, is it's Very easy to find stuff. So anyway, I found this 20 Bolivar note that you gave me and I was talking to some of our producer and Julia, who's a Businessweek editor, said, oh, that's 8 cents. And I was like, I don't think it's 8 cents. This is 20 boulevards. I looked it up, it's 20 new boulevards of a. Current bolivars would be worth 8 cents, but they've revalued the currency over and over and over again. And so I think I would need 10,000 of these to make like $0.01. The amount of inflation is just sort of mind boggling.

[A]

It was mind boggling inflation. And you're absolutely right, Max. Venezuela under Maduro for a period of time, including even like right now, I believe they're not really p publishing economic data because they were too embarrassed by it. The regime was. So we actually created the bureau and I did there several years ago, our own inflation index, the Bloomberg Cafe con Leche index. It's a very simple index, but it's easy to get your head around. It's just a cup of cafe con leche that we actually have somebody go out and buy at this shop each and every week. And we input it into the system. We track broad brush strokes, inflation in the country. And yeah, Max, there were times over the past decade where Venezuela's inflation got the like 500,000%. And so yes, the value of those Bolivars became just utterly worthless. And what they kept having to do is just strip zeros off the currency because like it got to like, you went to go buy that cafe con leche, Stacy, and you need to like pay 78 million bolivars, right, for a cup of coffee. There got to a period of time. This is like Weimar Republic Germany kind of thing. We did a story years ago where you would bring your money in to buy something and they would just weigh it on their deli scale.

[B]

They wouldn't count them as we kind of wind down. And I hate to reduce this to this question, but I think if you're, if you're sitting here in the US you're wondering like, okay, like, so let's say the US Leaving aside the question of Venezuelan domestic politics and how damaging it might be to our cause to go around saying like, we're gonna take all the oil, but like, is this actually gonna make like gas prices in the US cheaper? Like in the short term, in the long term, in any term.

[A]

I myself am pretty skeptical. I mean it could happen. But I mean, seeing his believing right now Venezuela on the global stage is a tiny producer of oil. Just getting that Kern oil freed up and flowing more isn't going to make enough of a difference. If you then say, hey, but we, the U.S. are going to get Chevron, who's already there in Venezuela and has been there for a while, pumping more, and we're going to also induce all these other big major US Oil companies to go down and we're going to really exploit, you know, tap into that Venezuelan oil potential, maybe. I got to say that you pull that off and you really get US Oil companies to have the confidence to sink tens of billions of dollars into that country and that they're going to actually be able to recoup their investment, because the governments that come both after Trump believe in this line and want to stick to it, and moreover, that the regime or the government in Caracas is going to want to stick to it as well to have that confidence. I mean, you guys, tell me, are you seeing any US Oil companies jumping up and down ready to sink tens of billions of dollars into Venezuela? I'm not.

[C]

I was surprised at that. I was surprised at how quiet the oil companies have been and how much they've held back. And, like, they don't seem to want to jump in here. No.

[A]

I would be astonished if they did. The math is tricky.

[B]

David Papadopoulos, thanks for being here.

[A]

Thanks, Max.

[C]

So, Max, at the top of the show, we talked about our New Year's resolutions. And of course, losing weight. Going to the gym is a big one for everybody, including me. But these days, that industry looks a lot different because, of course, of GLP1. Yeah.

[B]

The old days, you know, be like, my resolution is to eat less. My resolution is go to the gym watchers.

[C]

Your.

[B]

Your resolution might be to, like, talk to your doctor about getting on GLP1. These, these weight loss drugs like Ozempic that are changing everything.

[C]

Yes. And in fact, this number blew my mind. But more than 10% of Americans now use GLP1s, and that is doubled from last year.

[B]

And Dina Shanker, BusinessWeek food columnist, is here. She's got a new piece which is online right now, Stacy. And it is all about the ways that GLP1s, these weight loss drugs are changing what people order at restaurants.

[C]

Yes, indeed. Extra salt is the column, and Dina is the guest. Welcome, Dina.

[D]

Thank you so much for having me.

[C]

I wanted to start out very basically here because I assumed that GLP1s would be a complete disaster for restaurants and for grocery stores. Because very famously, when you're on a GLP1, you don't eat much. People forget to eat. They eat tiny portions. This seems like a death knell for restaurants, but it kind of hasn't been. Talk about how the restaurant industry and food industry have adapted.

[D]

Yeah. So since GLP1 started really making headlines, the food industry has been trying to figure out what that means for them. It is pretty common in earnings calls for executives to get questions about GLP1.

[C]

Yeah, it seems like an existential problem.

[D]

Yes, exactly. And what we're seeing now is we're able to see how some of this is playing out. So I should say that for the grocery industry, it is mostly very bad news. People, when they go shopping, are making fewer impulse purchases. They don't want salty snacks, they don't want cookies, like all sorts of things that they used to buy. They're not buying as much as the supermarket. So sad face for the snack industry.

[C]

Okay.

[D]

But unexpectedly, restaurants can actually stand to benefit, and some of them already are. We saw some data from Circana which said that people on GLP1 spend more than people not on GLP1s.

[C]

At restaurants.

[D]

Yes, at restaurants. And Numerator also had a finding specific to fast food. The biggest beneficiary is the casual dining set.

[C]

And that would be like your Chipotle's.

[D]

And that would be more of a fast casual. Casual dining would be more like an Olive Garden, a place where you're gonna sit down, a waiter's gonna come, but you're not at fine dining.

[C]

So they are raking it in from GLP1 ones.

[D]

Some of them are certainly going to be seeing, and may already be seeing an uptick from GLP1 users and their households. And so Circana, when I asked them, I was like, why? Like, what's driving this? They hadn't dug into the why specifically yet, but they had some ideas. And as soon as you start thinking about it, it actually makes a lot of sense. So one of my favorite theories, and I spoke to a GLP1 user who had this exact experience is basically when you are on GLP1s, all that food noise turns off. Which if you're the person in charge of putting dinner on the table and your family, that might mean days of shopping, list planning, taking things out of the freezer, marinating this, you know, picking up that, that all just disappears. So all of a sudden it's six o' clock on Tuesday and it's dinner time and you haven't thought about it yet. So what do you do in that? You go to a restaurant, go to the Olive Garden. Yeah. And so Olive Garden is showing up just in time with a perfect solution for these kinds of families. Or I shouldn't say a perfect solution. A solution of sorts, which they say is not specifically for GLP1 users, but I feel like we all know.

[A]

Okay, okay.

[D]

It's smaller portion sizes, and they're emphasizing the affordability side of this because the smaller portions are going to cost less money. And that also makes perfect sense and also is in line with lots of other trends that we're seeing. But for a GLP1 user, it's perfect.

[C]

Like tiny, endless pasta.

[D]

Or like, well, the breadsticks remain endless.

[B]

Salad and breadsticks. Right.

[D]

The breadsticks are certainly endless. I. I can't speak specifically to the, to the endless nature of the salad, but the.

[C]

No one wants an endless salad. No demand.

[D]

But the smaller portions, they tested it last year. It was successful enough that this month they are rolling it out nationwide.

[C]

And you said, like, what is it?

[D]

So it's the same food, it's just less of it. You know, when you look at the regular Olive Garden website and you look at how many calories are in their standard serving, it's like 1200 calories in a bowl of pasta. And, like, don't get me wrong, like, I could eat that, but maybe I shouldn't. And so it makes sense to just shrink it. And that is good for a GLP1 user, but it's good for other people, too.

[C]

Good for the restaurant.

[D]

It's good for the restaurant. It turns that restaurant into a destination for not just the GLP1 user, but their whole household. Which is another reason GLP1 users may be going to restaurants more is because when you're cooking, you don't want to make dinner for me, the GLP1 user, and then dinner for everybody else. And so when you go to a restaurant, you have more control over your dish. And everyone has that same level of control. You know, it's funny, it used to be that the vegetarian was the veto vote in deciding where to eat.

[C]

You are a vegetarian.

[D]

I'm a pescatarian, which I feel like some people just really need that distinction.

[C]

Okay, noted.

[D]

Vegetarian, specifically.

[C]

Yes, absolutely. I apologize.

[D]

It's not me, but they used to be the one who would be like, well, I looked at the menu and there's nothing for me on that menu. And one thing I heard from, from talking to people was that increasingly GLP1 users can now play that veto vote role. And so you might put that on your menu and it not Only brings in that one person, but it brings in their whole family, their whole group.

[B]

Can I ask. One of the things that's so interesting about these GLP1s, and you hinted at it, is that they, like, change how you. Your desire for. For food. Not just food. Right. But other. But lots of other things. I mean, there's smoking, drinking, maybe even gambling and other things like that. What do people are on GLP1s want in food? Do they just want, like. Like a. Like a sort of bland. They just want Soylent, basically. They just want, like, calories with none of the experience or like, what are they actually looking for?

[D]

So one of the doctors that I spoke with told me that you people's tastes Definitely change on GLP1s. Not everybody's, but a lot of people's. But they change in all kinds of different ways. And the only thing that is consistent is that they want less. Now, what they're supposed to eat is a different question. What they're supposed to eat is a lot of protein and then also fiber, and they're also supposed to stay well hydrated. That's because of the muscle loss that you can have with GLP1s and then the fiber to help with, you know, moving things through your system. And the hydration is also related to that. So some people will go from loving, say, McDonald's every day to finding McDonald's. Absolutely. Like, just gross. But some people will be like, I still love McDonald's, but I just don't have room for it anymore. And some restaurants are really catering very specifically to these groups, even more than Olive Garden. Like, Smoothie King has a GLP1 line of smoothies Restaurant, just protein powder and water.

[C]

I mean, but yeah, but also, like Del Taco, like fast food restaurants are also responding to this.

[D]

Yeah, so Del Taco is a good example. They had a limited time offer of a micro meal, and basically they had what they called a mini burrito. But basically they can just use like a taco, a taco tortilla, and make a mini burrito. I mean, it's. It's fun. It's like, silly, right, because it's the same thing, except it's just smaller.

[C]

This also seems like kind of a double win in certain ways for restaurants because there were all these complaints as food prices started to rise about shrinkflation and, you know, portions getting smaller and all of these outraged people saying, like, I used to get, you know, all these chips in the bag, and now it's a tiny amount of chips in the bag. This Is actually restaurants, like, turning a bug into a feature. It's like, we can save money on food. And, you know, I'm sure they. They don't charge maybe as much as a full size meal, but it's probably a premium. It's not. If it's a quarter of the portion, it's probably not a quarter of the price. So it seems like a huge win.

[D]

I think so. I mean, it does. It does seem like a huge win. And whether you're on a GLP one or not, a lot of the time. You know, I mentioned, like, some of these Olive Garden pasta bowls are like 1200 calories. Like, you might not want to eat all of that. And maybe there's not enough left to even make sense to bring leftovers home. Like, and so you end up just feeling kind of like. Or maybe you eat it all and then you feel bad and like, none of these are good outcomes for the customer and none of them really make you necessarily want to go back.

[B]

Are there any good outcomes at an Olive Garden?

[C]

It's a hot take.

[B]

Just a question.

[D]

I remember their breadsticks being great at a time in my life when I could actually eat unlimited breadsticks, enjoy it, and not wake up regretting it the next day. So that would be when I was like, 15. I remember having a really nice date there once.

[C]

Also. Endless breaststicks. They fill you up. So if you have a limited budget, you know, they're. Then Olive Garden's there for you.

[B]

So, Dina, you wrote in this piece that one of the restaurants that has kind of modified their menu is Chipotle, which is a fast casual, not a casual dining thing. Anyway, Chipotle just. Just recently December 18th unveiled a new menu item, which we have here. Okay. Here. Okay. So I'm taking out like, many little cups. Now, Chipotle referred to this. I just want to get the wording right. It's first ever high protein menu featuring a new snack ready high protein cup. They've called this, I believe, a meat snack. Or maybe just a snack. Anyway, a protein cup.

[D]

Okay.

[B]

These are Chipotle protein cups. It is basically a tiny bowl of meat.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

And Charlie Gorman are very, very dedicated reporter. Went to Chipotle just now and purchased six meat snacks.

[C]

Yeah, this is. It's.

[D]

I think it smells good.

[B]

It's just a bowl, just meat. Here, give me the chicken one. Okay. So I'm looking at the chicken and the steak. It's just like a bowl of Chipotle.

[C]

Yeah. I think it's like the portion they put In a burrito.

[B]

I mean, how much does this cost?

[C]

I think around $4.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

I mean, it's not dinner, though.

[C]

It's Chipotle chicken. I recognize it.

[D]

Could it be lunch? I feel like this could be lunch.

[B]

This could not be this. It's funny.

[C]

Maybe like, two. Well, this is coming from someone whose New Year's resolution is to join a gym, but I'm like. Like, three of them. Could be lunch. It is really interesting to me that basically Chipotle did not develop Anything special for JLP1 users. It's just packaging, because this is, like, the meat they normally put in their burrito. It's stuff they already have.

[D]

It's interesting. That's pretty much what Del Taco did too. They basically used ingredients they already had and reassembled them slightly or served them in smaller portions. And that's really actually what is key to like, doing this. Well, for a restaurant business is not, you know, over complicating the back of the house. Not, you know, having to, you know, re. Change how you procure or whatever, whatever. It's really just taking ingredients you already have and reassembling them. And, I mean, so, like, good on Chipotle. I bet this $4 cup, I. I bet it does really well.

[B]

I don't think you really want to taste the inside of your Chipotle burrito without all of the fixes.

[D]

Yes.

[C]

It feels like part of a kit that has yet to be assembled.

[B]

And this is, like.

[D]

This is nightmarish, but this is the protein craze. Like, this is what they're doing.

[C]

And if you don't care about how your food tastes.

[D]

Yeah, I mean.

[C]

I mean, it tastes fine. It tastes good.

[B]

I think the chicken one is better than the steak one. The steak one is so salty, but.

[D]

Like, there's something, like, just gross about the protein craze in general.

[C]

I think I eat more salt than you do. That's, like, perfectly seasoned, in my opinion.

[B]

Well, Dina, you're obviously referring to the food pyramid, which just came out, which basically, like, replaces all the things that we were taught in school about.

[C]

What's going on is now the inverted food pyramid.

[B]

It's now upside down, literally, which architecturally, we probably need to talk about at some point, but. But also. Yeah, like steak, butter. This is all the. The food groups, I guess. Yeah.

[D]

I mean, they really want you eating a lot of meat on this new food pyramid. And the broccoli and the turkey are, like, the same size. I don't know what to make of that. There's I mean, there's a lot of weird stuff going on there, but there's a giant, juicy steak, like, right in the corner of it, and a giant stick of.

[C]

Of partially unwrapped butter right in the heart of it, which I was. My favorite part of the inverted piece.

[D]

I think my favorite part was the jug of olive oil right next to the milk.

[C]

Oh, I thought that was wine. I was like, oh, okay. I thought it was an RFP junior. Like, it's good for your heart.

[B]

Come on.

[C]

But it looks like a jug of wine. Tell me who buys olive oil in a jug with a handle on it?

[B]

Dena Shanker, thanks for being here.

[D]

Thanks for having me.

[C]

Thank you, Dena.

[B]

All right, Stacy, it is that time. It's time for the underrated stories. I know you. You've teased me with this one. Let's have it.

[C]

All right, so obviously here in New York, the Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro is headed to court. And the judge presiding over the case, his name is Alvin Hellerstein and he is 92. They have a 92 year old judge. Yes. And this judge has been a thorn in the side of the Trump administration for a while. He ruled against president Trump in the Stormy Daniels case. He twice rejected Trump's bids to move the case to federal court. And also the deportation of immigrants he also has blocked. But he is presiding over the case with Maduro now.

[B]

I feel like we're doing this again. I did. We did this last week episode or two episodes ago with Philip Rivers, who was briefly the quarterback of the colts despite being 45 years old. And now we have a very old judge. And once again, it's the same kind of vibes. Right? You're just like, good, Good for you. I know.

[C]

I hope I'm doing my job when I'm 92.

[B]

Want our judges to be non generians. Is that a good thing, Stacey?

[C]

I think it could be a really good thing. He's got a ton of experience. He knows the law. He's not trying to, like, angle to get some huge turning point in his career. He's very established, and as long as you know he does a good job, I'm all for it.

[B]

You may be right. And that. That comes. That brings us to my underrated story of the week.

[C]

Tell me, tell me.

[B]

All right, so this is a headline in the New York Times, and Stacey, I'm gonna. I gotta warn you, there is a lot going on in this one.

[C]

Okay.

[B]

Headline. Can you optimize love? Subhead. A group of tech executives, app developers, and Silicon Valley Philosophers is seeking to streamline the messy matters of the heart.

[C]

This is a lovely Something shouldn't be optimized. I'm very curious about this by Amanda Hess and.

[B]

Oh my God, Stacey. It is so funny. There are so many just like weird cringy things.

[C]

How are they optimizing love?

[B]

So you know how like they're just some sort of like basic things that everyone knows because they've been passed down from human history from, you know, time immemorial about, like how to find a mate. Like, you know, wash your face, like wear presentable clothes, whatever.

[C]

Wash your face or you know, whatever.

[B]

Like there's just some basics and it seems like these guys.

[C]

Washing your face is a basic.

[B]

That is a basic. Yes. Okay. And these guys are like, let's just, let's start from scratch. Let's figure out like all the elements that. And think about, let's think about like meeting, like love the way we think about maybe buying or selling a digital advertisement or something. Here's a quote from the story from the social media manager of one of these companies, companies called Keeper. He says so the system men say is intended to go beyond a user's quote, general mate value factor, end quote, to honor each user's idiosyncratic desires. Mr. Ash, this is. The social media manager, provided an example from his research. Quote, if the woman is about half a standard deviation more agreeable than the man, that's the optimal point for relationship dur. So it's like, it's like, wait, what.

[C]

Is this half a degree more agreeable?

[B]

I have no fr.

[C]

Wait, what is that term again?

[B]

About half a standard deviation more agreeable than the man. That's the optimal point for relationship durability. I think he's saying that the woman should be a little bit hotter than the man. That's what I'm taking from this.

[C]

No, I think it's a lot more like smiling and saying more agreeable as a person. Sort of like, yes, grit's are so such a great idea.

[B]

Okay. Either way it's gross. I should also note that later in this article you learn that the social media manager in question on his own personal dating profile has a quote that says I love eugenics. Which the company Keeper has said is not their official position. You'll be happy to know he is still a social media manager. I also want to say that like everyone in this story, and I think this is because the photographer went to like one of these cuddle parties. Everyone is wearing socks in their portraits. So like here, like here are the founders.

[C]

My brain is still on cuddle parts.

[B]

Here are the founders of this company and they're all wearing socks. And I just feel like guys, like.

[C]

I know this is basically part of optimizing for love, not constricting your feet.

[B]

If you wanna, like, you know, meet that special someone, you know, just maybe.

[C]

Put on some shoes, wash your face and put on some shoes. I think, yeah, it doesn't. We do not have to make it more complicated than it is. Wash your face, put on some shoes and maybe do not ever, ever use words about being more agreeable. Ever. That is my unsolicited advice.

[B]

This show is produced by Stacy Wong. Magnus Hendrickson is our supervising producer and Amy Kean our executive producer. Sam Rogich handles engineering and Dave Purcell factory checks. Sage Bauman heads Bloomberg Podcast. Special thanks to Jeff Muskus, Julia Rubin, Charlie Gorven and Maria Ling and the Chipotle on 62nd Street. If you have a minute, please rate and review the show. It means a lot to us. And if you have a story that should be our business, email us@everybody'sloomberg.net that's everybody's with an sloomberg.net thank you for listening and we'll see you next week.