Everybody’s Business

Episode: How Venezuela Hit Rock Bottom
Date: January 9, 2026
Hosts: Max Chafkin & Stacey Vanek Smith

Overview

This episode dives deep into Venezuela’s dramatic fall from prosperity to crisis, unpacking the key economic missteps and geopolitical turmoil that led up to the U.S.-orchestrated removal of President Nicolás Maduro. Hosts Max Chafkin and Stacey Vanek Smith are joined by veteran Latin American economics journalist David Papadopoulos, who charts Venezuela’s decades-long decline. The episode also explores how weight-loss drugs are impacting the restaurant industry and ends on lighter notes, from New York’s congestion pricing to optimizing love in Silicon Valley.

Key Segments & Insights

1. U.S. Economy, Trump’s Policy Floaters, and Hot News Items

Timestamps: 01:34–06:00

• Anemic U.S. Job Market: “We got some very disappointing jobs numbers just in and hiring is totally anemic. Layoffs are rising.” (Stacey, 01:45)
• Trump’s “Truthing Tear”: President Trump took to his social media platform to discuss executive pay at defense contractors and proposed a ban on private equity firms buying single-family homes—a move with odd bipartisan populist appeal, impacting stocks like Blackstone.
  • “No one knows if this is going to happen ... but it raises all sorts of important questions about why have rents gone up so much, why have home prices gone up so much, and, you know, Trump is at least talking about maybe doing something about that.” (Max, 02:30)
• Supreme Court Tariff Ruling: Thousands of companies, including Costco, are suing over “Liberation Day tariffs,” with a Supreme Court decision imminent.

2. New York City Congestion Pricing: Reactions & Data

Timestamps: 04:30–08:37

• The Policy: $9 tolls instituted to enter midtown Manhattan, targeting both traffic and MTA funding.
• Results: Traffic down 11%; $550 million raised for the MTA. Mixed feelings from New Yorkers, with complaints about cost and equity.
  • “Basically, it’s working—it’s lowering traffic, it’s raising money, doing the things advocates wanted it to do. ... It doesn’t seem like people are that mad about it. They’re just paying the nine bucks and moving on.” (Max, 05:47)
• Vox Pop Highlights:
  • “If you make it more expensive, then less people can do it. If you just basically enable people who have more money to enjoy the roads better, just perpetuating inequality.” (Anonymous New Yorker, 07:15)
  • “Tolls and stuff like that are unconstitutional because it restricts freedom of movement. Like, if I didn’t have $25 to go through the Lincoln Tunnel, what do I do?” (Anonymous New Yorker, 07:15)
  • Max: “I have found the congestion pricing like, mildly annoying. Like, every time I cross that barrier, I think, mm, that’s $9 I no longer have. But honestly, I’ve just accepted it.” (08:13)
• Hosts’ Take: Max finds it a mild nuisance; Stacey notes it’s more a New York reality than scandal.

3. Deep Dive: How Venezuela Hit Rock Bottom

Timestamps: 09:01–21:36
Guest: David Papadopoulos

The Rise & Fall

• From Wealth to Ruin: Venezuela was, until the late 1970s, one of Latin America’s wealthiest and most stable nations, thanks largely to oil.
  • “Oil was discovered there early in the 20th century ... so too, as a result, was largely the Venezuelan economy.” (David, 10:44)
• The 1973 Oil Shock: Sudden spike—oil rises from $4 to $48/barrel. Venezuela embarks on a spending/nationalization spree.
  • “They go on unbelievable spending binge that includes the nationalization of the oil industry ... with all this wealth they have, this was the grand Venezuela, right? Just incredibly wealthy.” (David, 11:19–12:54)
• Downturn & Hangover: U.S. inflation fight (Volcker era) crashes oil prices back to ~$10/barrel in early 1980s. Venezuela’s government payrolls and spending become unsustainable, public sector bloats, and economic decline begins—a “20-year hangover.”
  • “Here begins ... a 20-year economic slide.” (David, 14:07)
• Chávez and the Repeat Cycle: In 1998, Hugo Chávez, a radical outsider, rides widespread discontent into power. The 2000s oil boom repeats the old errors—massive nationalization and crippling state-run oil company PDVSA.
  • “Chavez makes all the same mistakes ... On top of that, he commits the sin of all sins. He kills the goose that laid the golden egg. He kills the state run oil company.” (David, 16:16)
• Collapse under Maduro: After Chávez’s death (2013), Maduro inherits impossible economic and oil sector problems; inflation enters hyperdrive.
  • Max: “The amount of inflation is just sort of mind boggling.” (17:47)
  • David: “There were times...where Venezuela’s inflation got to like 500,000%. The value of those Bolivars became just utterly worthless.” (18:29)
  • Amusing note: Bloomberg journalists created the “Cafe con Leche Index” to track inflation by the price of a cup of coffee.
• Maduro’s Downfall & U.S. Takeover: Episode is triggered by the U.S.’s snatch of Maduro. Uncertainty reigns over Venezuela’s oil future and whether U.S. control will lower global oil prices. Papadopoulos is skeptical: “I mean, seeing is believing right now. Venezuela on the global stage is a tiny producer of oil.” (21:10)

Notable Quotes

• “When oil goes from $4 to $48 ... in Venezuela, they’re like, ‘Holy, we’re unbelievably rich.’” (David, 12:01)
• “Venezuelans are traveling to Miami for one-day shopping trips ... the bolivar was such a valuable currency...” (David, 12:54)
• “The regime was too embarrassed [by the economic data] ... so we actually created the Bloomberg Cafe con Leche index...” (David, 18:29)
• “Are you seeing any US oil companies jumping up and down ready to sink tens of billions of dollars into Venezuela? I’m not.” (David, 21:24)

4. GLP-1 Drugs’ Surprising Impact on the Restaurant Industry

Timestamps: 21:46–35:33
Guest: Dina Shanker

• Revolutionizing Resolutions: Use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (e.g., Ozempic) has doubled; over 10% of Americans now use them.
  • “Since GLP1 started really making headlines, the food industry has been trying to figure out what that means for them.” (Dina, 23:05)
• Retailers vs Restaurants: Bad news for grocery stores and snack brands (fewer impulse buys, less snack demand). But restaurants, especially casual dining brands, are benefitting.
  • “People on GLP1 spend more than people not on GLP1s at restaurants.” (Dina, 24:01)
• Why the Shift? Meal planning and “food noise” disappear for GLP-1 users, driving spontaneous restaurant visits. Smaller restaurant portions have become both a business strategy and a consumer trend (Olive Garden launching small pasta bowls, fast food like Del Taco offering “micro meals,” and Chipotle’s “protein cups”).
  • “All that food noise turns off ... it might mean days of shopping, list planning, taking things out of the freezer ... that all just disappears. So ... what do you do? You go to a restaurant.” (Dina, 25:02)
• Changing Menus: Restaurants repackage existing ingredients into smaller, more protein-rich, GLP-1-friendly offerings.
  • “It’s the same food, it’s just less of it ... and that is good for a GLP1 user, but it’s good for other people, too. It’s good for the restaurant.” (Dina, 26:32)
  • “Chipotle just ... unveiled a new menu item ... its first ever high protein menu ... a tiny bowl of meat.” (Max, 32:13)
• Shrinkflation Flip: Reduced portions framed as health-oriented options; helps restaurants control costs while adjusting to changing demand.

Notable Moments

• Max (sarcastic): “Are there any good outcomes at an Olive Garden?” (31:01)
• Dina: “Their breadsticks are certainly endless.” (26:10)
• Stacey: “It feels like part of a kit that has yet to be assembled.” (34:00, on Chipotle’s protein cup)
• Dina: “There’s something, like, just gross about the protein craze in general.” (34:17)

5. Underrated Stories: Old Judges & Optimizing Love

Timestamps: 35:39–40:28

• Very Old Judges: NYC’s Maduro case is presided over by Judge Alvin Hellerstein, age 92.
  • “He’s got a ton of experience. ... as long as he does a good job, I’m all for it.” (Stacey, 36:44)
• Silicon Valley & the Quest to Optimize Love: Tech execs develop data-driven ways to “streamline the messy matters of the heart.”
  • Max quotes Keeper’s social media manager: “If the woman is about half a standard deviation more agreeable than the man, that’s the optimal point for relationship durability.” (38:45)
  • “My brain is still on cuddle parties.” (Stacey, 39:46)
  • “Just maybe, put on some shoes, wash your face and put on some shoes.” (Stacey, 40:03)

Memorable Quotes

• “Oil was discovered there early in the 20th century ... Oil goes from $4 to $48 and, in Venezuela, they’re like, holy, we’re unbelievably rich. ... They go on an unbelievable spending binge that includes the nationalization of the oil industry.”
  — David Papadopoulos (10:44–12:00)

• “There were times over the past decade where Venezuela’s inflation got the like 500,000%. ... They would just weigh [money] on their deli scale.”
  — David Papadopoulos (18:29)

• “People on GLP1 spend more than people not on GLP1s at restaurants.”
  — Dina Shanker (24:01)

• “If the woman is about half a standard deviation more agreeable than the man, that’s the optimal point for relationship durability.”
  — Max quoting Keeper’s social media manager (38:45)

Episode Structure & Timestamps

• Main Theme/Opening Banter: 00:12–01:34
• Economic & Political News Roundup: 01:34–08:37 (News items, Supreme Court, congestion pricing)
• Venezuela Deep Dive with David Papadopoulos: 09:01–21:36
• Weight-Loss Drugs & Restaurant Impacts with Dina Shanker: 21:46–35:33
• Underrated Stories (Old Judge, Optimizing Love): 35:39–40:28

Tone & Style

Conversational, sharp, occasionally irreverent and wry—Max and Stacey maintain a brisk journalistic tone, but frequently interject personal takes, humor, and disbelief at policy or technology absurdities.

This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in the economic lessons of Venezuela, the future of urban policy, and the strange new world where tech, diet drugs, and relationships intersect.