Kyla Scanlon Sees Trouble Brewing in the US Economy

Summary

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Podcast Summary: "Kyla Scanlon Sees Trouble Brewing in the US Economy"

Everybody's Business by Bloomberg and iHeartPodcasts
Episode Date: October 24, 2025
Hosts: Max Chafkin & Stacey Vanek Smith
Guest: Kyla Scanlon (author of "In This Economy")
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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into two interlinked themes:

• The high-stakes political and economic drama playing out in Argentina, including US and Trump administration interventions, and
• The strange, uneasy moment in the US economy, with Kyla Scanlon illuminating troubling undercurrents that aren’t always showing up in headline numbers.

The hosts guide listeners through Argentina’s bailouts, US farmer tensions, and the optics of international aid before bringing in Kyla Scanlon for a candid, illuminating look at the unspoken signals in the American economy: weak consumer sentiment, rising loan delinquencies, murky labor markets, and what the “vibe session” means for everyday Americans.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Perplexing State of the US Housing Market

Segment: [02:32–06:36]

• Housing is at a near-standstill: Both buyers and sellers are paralyzed by high interest rates and low inventory.

• Statistics: Home sales are at their slowest pace since 1995, worse even than through the housing crisis.

• Notable Quote (Stacey, 03:02):
  “Would you sell your house right now?”
  (Max: “No. No, I wouldn’t.”)

• Homeownership is the traditional wealth-building path, but most now feel locked out or left behind.

• There’s generational anxiety: One participant shares, “My mom’s a public school teacher. She didn’t make enough to actually mortgage our house. So it’s mortgaged by my grandma... If that’s already happening to my parents, what am I going to do?” [04:44]

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2. Argentina’s Economic Crisis and US Political Maneuvering

Segment: [06:36–22:20]

• The US “Bailout” (Really a Swap): $20 billion swap line extended to Argentina. Guest David Papadopoulos breaks down that this isn’t a direct bailout, but effectively props up Argentina’s currency.

• US Treasury directly intervening in Buenos Aires currency markets, buying pesos to create demand and stabilize the peso.

• Electoral Stakes: If Javier Milei’s party fails to increase seats in Congress, political instability and economic collapse loom; if not, stabilization reforms may continue.

• Notable Quote (David Papadopoulos, 11:31):
  “You know what happens, Stacey, when a shark stops swimming?”
  (Stacey: “It dies because it can’t move oxygen over its... Yes, I do know.”)
  — Used as a metaphor for how stabilization efforts must keep moving forward or risk a crisis relapse.

• US domestic politics are roiled by these actions:

  • American farmers potentially squeezed by falling soybean and beef prices due to increased Argentine exports.
  • Trump administration positions the intervention as pro-consumer, but at direct cost to core constituents like farmers.
  • Notable Quote (Donald Trump, imitating): “Argentina’s fighting for its life, young lady. You don’t know anything about it.” [13:10]

• Intervention is a political play: Trump stands by Milei as his “one friend in Latin America” and seeks to counterbalance leftist governments in the region.

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3. The US Economy’s Divided Mood: A “Vibecession” and Kyla Scanlon’s Warnings

Segment: [24:04–40:17]

A. Consumer Sentiment & the Power of Vibes

• Kyla Scanlon, originator of "vibe session" (vibecession), explains how feelings—not data—are increasingly driving market and economic outcomes.
• Notable Quote (Kyla Scanlon, 25:37):
  “All that really matters now is vibes because we don’t have a lot of data... Narrative is moving markets much more than fundamentals.”
• Many feel negative about the economy, even when some data remains strong; this negativity now aligns with tough labor and inflation data.
• Sentiment “light”: Kyla’s verdict: “Yellow light...I think we have the hard data to back up some of the sentiment.” [28:30]

B. Loan Delinquencies & Financial “Dominoes”

• Auto loan delinquencies and car repossessions are spiking; multiple subprime auto lenders have gone bankrupt.
• Some industry-specific bankruptcies are signs of broader trouble—not isolated incidents.
• The real worry: A continued rise could presage defaults on bigger loans (mortgages), reminiscent of early stages of the 2008 crisis.
• Notable Story (Kyla Scanlon, 31:08):
  On extending car payments:
  “People have to have a car to go to work...the way you make it more affordable is extending out the payments.”
• Verdict: “It’s a yellow light...but if defaults keep rising, we could see bigger problems.” [33:01]

C. The Labor Market & The Return-to-Office Era

• Jamie Dimon’s new “fortress” JP Morgan headquarters as a symbol: Return-to-office is not about productivity, but about power, labor market weakness, and maximizing expensive real estate.
• “Quiet firing”—policies like forced relocations or rigid office mandates are used to thin the workforce in a soft job market.
• Kyla: “Workers don’t have a lot of power right now, so I think companies are using that as a get-back-to-the-office sort of thing.” [37:38]
• The labor market is confusing: official numbers are murky due to government shutdown; private indicators suggest softness, especially outside AI and healthcare sectors.
• Red light for labor markets and hiring:
  “I get a lot of messages from people—my audience is primarily young people—and...I cannot find a job right now. I’m red light on the labor market.” [39:08, 39:34]

D. The AI Economy vs. Everyone Else

• AI is driving much of the economic growth and stock market highs but does not translate into broad-based prosperity.
• “The divergence between the stock market and the economy...is disconnected from the material reality of the average person.” [39:36]
• Scanlon’s overall outlook: “I’m worried. And I hate it.” [39:36]

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4. A Lighthearted Look at Political Optics: Gavin Newsom’s “$15,000 Bottle of Wine”

Segment: [41:59–46:51]

• Bloomberg cover story: Gavin Newsom’s behind-the-scenes moves for a potential presidential run, and the curious detail of his favorite bottle of wine—a 1947 Cheval Blanc, costing ~$15,000.
• Is being forthright about this luxury a political liability or authenticity?
• Hosts banter: Implying wine taste of this caliber is surely not “regular guy” behavior; Kyla quips, “I didn’t even know wine could be that expensive.” [44:44]
• Some see the honesty as refreshing given the state of political posturing.

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On homeownership and anxiety:
  “My mom’s a public school teacher. She didn’t make enough money to like, actually mortgage our house. So it’s mortgaged by my grandma... What am I going to do?” — [04:44]
• On Argentina's crisis:
  “You know what happens, Stacey, when a shark stops swimming?... It dies... Stabilization plans... you need to keep building off your momentum. If you stall out, the whole thing's going to die." — David Papadopoulos, [11:31]
• On consumer sentiment and "vibe session":
  “All that really matters now is vibes because we don’t have a lot of data... Narrative is moving markets much more than fundamentals.” — Kyla Scanlon, [25:37]
• On overall red flag:
  “I’m worried. And I hate it...I just see like this point of concern and like, I’m really worried about the divergence between the stock market and the economy.” — Kyla Scanlon, [39:36]
• On wine and authenticity in politics:
  “I didn’t even know wine was that expensive. Wow. Why is it so expensive?” — Kyla Scanlon, [44:44]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:32–06:36] — US Housing Market gridlock & generational anxiety
• [06:36–22:20] — Argentina’s bailout, political implications, and US farm fallout (with David Papadopoulos)
• [24:04–25:37] — The “vibecession”: why narrative trumps data in today’s markets
• [28:30–34:29] — Auto loan delinquencies, financial dominoes, and subprime trouble signals
• [35:01–39:34] — Labor market malaise, return-to-office power plays, and workforce anxieties
• [41:59–46:51] — Gavin Newsom's $15,000 wine and the problem of political authenticity

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Tone & Takeaways

The tone is candid, educational, and wry—mixing Bloomberg’s deep reporting with Kyla Scanlon’s acute sense for the real, felt economy. The central takeaway: Many headline US indicators look decent; however, under the surface, multiple flashing warning lights are visible in consumer sentiment, loan performance, and labor market strength. Simultaneously, the optics and politics—both global (Argentina) and domestic (2024 elections)—are more tangled and consequential than ever.

This is a must-listen for anyone who wants to understand not just what’s happening in the economy, but how it feels on the ground—and why those “vibes” may be pointing to trouble ahead.

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Transcript

[A]

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[B]

This is everybody's business from Bloomberg Businessweek. I'm Stacey Vanek Smith.

[C]

And I'm Max Chavkin. Stacey yes, this week we are going back to Argentina, the land of stake. It's big news and inflation and bailouts. The bailout that we told you about a month ago, it is happening. It has happened. The election that many people in the US Were worried about, it is happening. So we have David Papadopoulos back here to talk us through it.

[B]

And after that we'll be visited by a friend of the show in studio. Very excited. Kyla Scanlon, economic teacher extraordinaire. And she is gonna help us navig this murky moment in our economy with some kind of under the radar economic things she has been watching.

[C]

I'm ready for it. Our underrated story. Now, you know, obviously the Democrats as people know they are, they're struggling to come up with a response to Trump and I think we found it. I've got one word for you, Stacey. Wait, it's more than one word. 47 Cheval Blanc.

[B]

47 Chaval Blanc is how the Democrats are gonna pull it together.

[C]

Just wait for the story.

[B]

Okay.

[C]

I am.

[B]

So Max, the economy right now, the American economy is kind of a scattershot a little bit. But one part that has been very consistently not good is the housing market.

[C]

Yeah, interest rates are up and because we haven't been building enough houses, basically no one's moving. And so if you Want to buy a house? You are. I think the.

[B]

Well, you're waiting for lower interest rates.

[C]

Scientific term is.

[B]

Well, you're waiting for lower interest rates. Right. Because you're just like, I'm not going to buy a house now.

[C]

And if, well, and if you are sitting in your house, you're not going to sell your house. So.

[B]

Right. I mean, you have, you are a homeowner. The shaft are a homeowner.

[D]

Right.

[B]

I mean, would you sell your house right now?

[C]

No. No, I wouldn't.

[B]

Well, in fact, Max, you are indicative of a national trend. The national association of Retailers came out with these numbers this week.

[C]

Real Tours. Real Tours, they're very adamant about that.

[B]

The national association of Real tours. It's like autour. As it turns out, home sales in the US this year are the slowest they've been since 1995. That means slower than the housing crisis. Home sales.

[C]

Yeah, it's, it's really bad. And it's, it's especially given that we went through this period for a very long period where interest rates were very low, where basically you could borrow money for, for next to nothing. It's, there's, it's, it's kind of shocking, honestly.

[B]

And of course, here in New York, everybody's obsessed with housing and rent and how much everybody's for everything. So I thought I would go out and ask people how they were feeling about housing and homeownership right now. And here's what they said.

[C]

If you're looking at the price of a house compared to your salary, and then if you look at the percentage of someone's salary that would go into housing 50, 60 years ago, you're going.

[E]

To see housing's getting more expensive.

[D]

It's just that real estate, it's really expensive. So a lot of us don't really get there.

[C]

The cost of living going up compared to wages going up is like something that worries me. Wanting to buy a house, but also, like, wanting to be able to spend time with my kids but also make enough money to, like, support them.

[D]

Well, we're still like in our early 20s. We have to eventually think about long term, like buying a house and stuff. So we're focusing on, like, saving for that.

[C]

My mom's a public school teacher. She didn't make enough money to like, actually mortgage our house. So it's mortgaged by my grandma. And that's like, sort of where like, all the wealth is, like, coming from in my family. So it's like if that's already happening to my parents, like what am I going to do? Oh man, I know that last one was pretty heavy.

[B]

People are feeling, I mean, that's, it's really interesting because it's this idea that like, that's the investment. If you can cobble together the money to get a house, then you're kind of on your way financially. And as a non homeowner, I do have like FOMO about that.

[C]

Yeah, Stacey, you're, you're among the renters.

[B]

My excuse is that I started reporting during the financial crisis. So the very first interviews I did as a journalist were to people who were underwater on their homes. And it spooked me forever.

[C]

I mean, renting is great if you've got a good situation. That said, like the, the structure of our sort of regulatory system makes it like basically almost impossible to, to like to not want to own a home because there are these great tax breaks. If you get a mortgage, your mortgage payments are tax deductible. Like it's a huge subsidy that, that renters don't get. And then because we don't, we're not building enough houses. And as you said, like there's almost this sense that any, no matter how much it's going to go up and it would be better if, if, if the world didn't work that way, I think. But, but it is how the world works.

[B]

Well, historically speaking it is an excellent investment. But I have chosen to put my money in gold.

[C]

I know you gold fell this week. I know it was a bad. Okay, Stacey. It is as we're recording this, October 22nd, Wednesday. Now, a month ago, I don't know if you remember, we had a whole conversation about Argentina.

[B]

Yes, of course.

[C]

Javier Milei, the cool chainsaw wielding sideburn having president, had run into some economic problems. The US was threatening to bail the country out. And a bunch of stuff has happened since we last talked that bailout, it has happened. Milei is facing an election I believe on Sunday. That's the 26th. So there's a lot going on. So I thought we could bring back our friend David Papadopoulos who we spoke to last month. He is an executive editor at Bloomberg. He's also the former host of Elon Inc. David, how are you?

[E]

I'm good.

[C]

All right, so David, can you just catch us up and explain what is happening right now? So that bailout, that $20 billion swap deal that we, we talked about that the U.S. was threatening to do, they have now done it, right?

[E]

Well, I think that there's a lot of hocus pocus going on around here, they don't like the optics of saying, yeah, we cut Javier Milei A $20 billion check, which is essentially, you know, what they've done. So a swap line means the US gives me lay access to 20 billion in milei, in turn, gives the Americans access to $20 billion worth of pesos, if one is so inclined.

[B]

Oh, so it's like, I'll trade you $20 billion worth of we swap. Except the peso is, like, really suffering from very, very serious inflation.

[E]

I mean, the part of the swap that really matters is milei getting his 20 billion? I don't know. I mean, what are we gonna do, Max? If we get $20 billion, we have the pesos, what are we gonna we go do with them? So that on the one hand, they've done that. The swap line, which I don't believe has been tapped yet. Separately, the US treasury is.

[D]

Is.

[E]

Is intervening in the currency market in Buenos Aires. They are selling dollars that the treasury has in the Buenos Aires market, and they are buying up pesos to prop up the peso.

[B]

And this increases the value of the peso, because a lot of the value of a currency comes from demand. And so if you are buying up pesos, if you're flooding the market with dollars and buying up pesos, that creates a healthy demand for the peso, and that increases its value.

[E]

Correct. They're creating demand for pesos or the other way to think about it. And I think perhaps a better way, they are increasing the supply of dollars in the market in Buenos Aires so that when people. Somebody wants dollars, there are now more dollars to be had because the US treasury is throwing dollars around there.

[B]

Well, and also, there's like, a political element here. I mean, Max mentioned that there is this election on Sunday, and is the subtext, or maybe not even the subtext of this, that if Milei's party gets voted out, then this help goes away?

[E]

Well, I think Trump said so.

[C]

He said it explicitly.

[B]

So it's not a subtext.

[E]

It's just text, which was kind of weird. I mean, look, it's. In general, it's not a great gambit as you're trying to prop somebody up and trying to pump them up to say, oh, but if this thing doesn't go really well in the next few days, we're totally out of here. Because now if I, an Argentine investor, I'm someone who's skittish about holding pesos, I hear that body language and that posturing from Trump now. I'm definitely getting out of the Peso right now I'm definitely want my dollars. But so to be clear on the vote, though, what this is a midterm election. Milei is not up for reelection yet. His party, his broader coalition right now has a very small percent of the votes in Congress. They are trying to get up to at least somewhere in the 30s, high 30s, preferably. The party's not going to get voted out. The issue is, can they boost their presence in Congress enough to both. A, allow me lay to properly stave off attempts by the opposition to pass through spending increases B, to perhaps impeach him. And there are corruption scandals swirling around him and his inner circle. And he desperately needs to get over a 33% coalition to avoid that and then see in an optimistic scenario, can they get close enough to 40% to then be a position to cut deals with other members of the opposition and get some of his vast agenda through labor reform, pension reform, tax reform.

[C]

So the risk for the. The holders of this currency, for the people who want Melee holders of the currency like you and you and me. Yeah, exactly. And evermore every day as we continue to buy pesos, is what exactly? That that Melee's opponents will either gain seats or hold off Melaye's gains enough to make it hard for him to basically do anything more to like do more reforms or like what is the actual.

[E]

So I think that is the principal thing. So remember last time I was on I gave you a shark reference. Yeah, I gave you another shark reference.

[D]

Please.

[E]

You know what happens, Stacey, when a shark stops swimming, when it, when it.

[B]

Dies because it can't move oxygen over its. Yes, I do know.

[E]

So these stabilization plans, when you're coming out of like crazy high inflation and an economy in crisis, you know, it's great when you have some initial gains, but you need to keep building off your momentum. You need to keep moving forward. And if you're going to stall out and, and the whole thing's going to die this quickly. Right. And you lose all momentum, you're like a shark. Like this thing is just got to keep going forward.

[C]

You.

[E]

He's done some things.

[C]

Yes.

[E]

He's brought inflation down. Yes. He's temporarily at least stabilized the pace of.

[B]

And a lot of austerity.

[E]

He's cut. Yes. He certain with this chainsaw, a lot of spending. But you need to deepen reforms and really keep things going. And so I think, yes, there's a real concern that if this is all you were able to do, Javier Milei, you're done. You're not going to get through anything else in your agenda to achieve your vision? No. We're out of here.

[C]

All right. So I want to just give you, just play a little clip of Trump kind of trying to explain this bailout on Air Force One the other day.

[E]

It's not a bailout.

[C]

Let's, let's listen.

[B]

Are we expecting a beef?

[E]

I assume you're talking about beef. Yeah, to get beef prices down. The only price we have that's high is beef, and we'll get that down. And one of the things we're thinking about doing is beef from Argentina.

[D]

But my question is, what do you have to say to US Farmers who feel that the deal is benefiting Argentina.

[B]

More than it is them as they are?

[E]

Argentina's fighting for its life, young lady. You don't know anything about it.

[B]

Okay, Love that as a reporter being called young lady. Really great.

[C]

Can we, can we just put a pin in the question of US farmers? And I just want to get at this thing that he's saying. Argentina is fighting for his life, young lady. Is that true? Is there any sense that that's true? It sounds like Argentina is preparing to vote against the guy who's in charge of the country.

[E]

I don't know about fighting for its life. I would say that it is potentially in the precipice of another full blown crisis. I mean, without Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant riding to the rescue, they probably would have devalued the currency again. If they are forced to devalue again. And broadly speaking, devaluing the currency.

[B]

Do you mind just explaining?

[E]

Oh, sorry. The value of the currency means is.

[C]

They stop buying pesos with dollars.

[E]

So right now the peso is worth 1,400 to the dollar. One gets you 1,400 pesos. If you're forced to value and stop defending the peso, it probably goes from 1,400 to 1 to, I don't know, 2,000, 2,500. What that gets you is a whole nother wave of inflation. So just when Milei was able to bring monthly inflation, I'm not talking about annual inflation, I'm talking about monthly inflation from around 10, 11% down to 2%. And for context, which is extraordinary, which is extraordinary for context, in the United States, inflation runs roughly 2% a year, you would go from 10 to 2 max. You could go right back to 10 or 15 and you could be right back in the soup of like, you know, another cris. So kind of fighting for its life in the sense. Not really, but in the sense that, yeah, it would mean a whole lot more economic hardship. That's how you impoverish people, by inflation soaring outta control. But perhaps, yes, Max, it's a slight overstatement.

[B]

So is all this intervention working?

[E]

Kind of. I mean, if the gambit is I'm gonna buy Milei enough time to get to the Sunday vote, the Oct. 27 vote, without having to devalue, keeping the peso stable, so it's not something that hurts him in the polls on Sunday, and so that Argentines can support him, hopefully rally around him and not have the devaluation of the peso weighing on their minds, I guess, kind of.

[C]

So the story you're telling makes me think, why would anyone vote against Melee? You know, I listened to the episode of Odd Lots that came out last week. They had a guy who wrote a book about the Argentina default, and it was basically like presenting Milei as the only choice. And I'm kind of curious, like, what are these voters reacting to? They know that. That the currency is going to get devalued and they don't care.

[E]

Yeah, I think they think this. And it's. We have this piece that's going out on Friday and they spoke with lots and lots of people there, some fantastic reporting and including a lot of people who voted for me today in 2023, and they're now their chains sought out, man. Like, you know, they're a little bitter, they're a little bit. You know, one of the things that I fail to properly perceive and I'm understanding better now, is Milei had always said, I'm coming with the chainsaw for the casta. La Casta. The cast. The cast kind of mean the establishment. The establishment. And what Argentines very much feel is, maybe you went for the casta, but I feel like you kind of came for all of us. So, like, we have this one guy talking about how his mother, his aunt, all had their pensions not gutted, not cut, but capped. And when your pension is capped, frozen at a certain amount, and inflation is running 10% a month, you're getting killed.

[C]

Right.

[E]

You're absolutely getting killed.

[C]

Right.

[E]

This has happened across the board, all sorts of cuts like this. I just don't. I think people didn't appreciate how much it was going to hit them. And the other thing is, you know, yes, there's been the stabilization, inflation's come down, the peso has been stable. But like, Max, at some point, I think you were saying the other day when we talked last time, where are the jobs where's the growth? Where's the free hand of the market?

[C]

Where.

[E]

And I don't. They're not seeing or feeling any of that. The corruption is weighing on their minds a bit. And by the way, very interesting thing, Melee 2023 in the campaign trail, that chainsaw was everywhere with him this time around.

[B]

Like parades with.

[D]

Yeah.

[E]

This time around, that chainsaw never, never leaves his desk. He does not campaign with it. Now. He is essentially hiding it.

[C]

All right, can we just real quick talk about U.S. politics here? Because we heard Trump talk about the farmers. Stacey, We've talked about this.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

This effort to defend the peso has been bad for American soybean farmers. Argentina, as part of their attempt to get a bunch of dollars, have effectively lowered the prices of Argentine soybeans. China is buying those. That's hurting American soybean farmers. Now we get this second suggestion from the president, from the president of the United States that maybe we'll also buy some Argentine beef, which is also bad for, you know, a different subset of farmers. A subset that is dear to your heart.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. My parents had a cattle farm when I was growing up. And whereabouts in Idaho.

[C]

Oh, nice.

[B]

In Ola, Idaho. And I was really shocked to see that because that would be kind of potentially devastating. Although beef prices have been really high. I mean, that is an interesting other way, I guess, to prop up the Argentine economy. To buy a bunch of their agricultural.

[C]

Products gives them more dollars, right?

[E]

Gives it. Absolutely, it does. And that's essentially what Trump was saying. Hey, to get down beef prices here in the US we'll do this. Good for us, good for our consumers, good for the Argentine ranchers. But so, yes, you could import beef here and apparently Trump might start doing so. Beef is sort of a niche product. Argentina does have a very powerful ag sector, but it's an ag sector. It's soybeans and it's wheat. And the soybeans all. They don't come here. They all go to. Indeed, to China.

[C]

Yeah.

[E]

And so it's interesting because I. We believe that part of what the use is trying to do is it's trying to. In the Journal's been on this story. They're trying to drive a wedge between the Argentines and China, between Melee and China in. In coming in with this aid and all that, and some of that you'll be able to do. But listen, at the end of the day, Argentina desperately needs China to sell soybeans, too.

[C]

So we talked about, like, the terrible politics of, you know, cutting people's pensions. People generally don't like that. Even if, even if there is a big crisis, even if there is the threat of hyperinflation. I mean, the politics here on the US Side, yeah, not good. You know, the government is shut down. It's easy to forget, but in fact, government is shut down. We're spending $20 billion on this bailout. More money, seems like hundreds of millions of dollars a day on this, this buying pesos from the Treasury. And then you have the suggestion that we're going to make beef cheaper, which means, you know, effectively, like less money for American cattle farmers.

[E]

Yeah, I mean, for sure. And that is a key part of his, his base. But I mean, the spin that he's putting on it, and I think it's a reasonable spin too, is. But, yeah, but good for the American consumer. I mean, if beef prices are sky high, it's good for, for people at, at the grocery store. The one other thing, by the way, that I almost forgot about to ment billion swap line intervening in the currency market and really leaning on the banks, the big Wall street banks, to come up with another 20 billion.

[C]

Jamie Dimon in Argentina, I believe, as.

[E]

We speak, as we speak.

[B]

Why is this happening? Like, why is this a good idea for the US to do? I mean, I understand, like, Argentina is, I think, very much at a turning point and in crisis. But like, what is, why is, I guess Trump jumping in? Why is Jamie Dimon down in Argentina? What's going on?

[E]

I believe Jamie Dimon is in Argentina. Coincidentally, our reporting tells us that Dimon just had planned to be down there right around now for months. But now that he's there, I think the sense is, okay, Jamie, like, let's try to put this thing together. But of course, the banks are going to demand a little bit more than just pesos as backing for their loans. They want stuff. They want, like, okay, what's our collateral? You going to give us, like, the lithium, right? Or like, what other, like, what other mineral rights are we going to get out of this? Like, I'm not, I'm not just taking Javier Milei's word for it. So I think that one is kind of struggling in terms of whether it gets done. I just think at the end of the day, Donald Trump has one friend in Latin America and his name is Javier Milei. And Milei is his counterweight to the leftists in Brazil, to the leftists in Chile, to the leftists in Colombia, to the Maduro regime in Venezuela. And he wants to stand by his guy and say, hey, we're with you through thick and thin. Go forth.

[C]

All right, David, thank you for being here. We'll have to come back and check in again once this election happens and also if we see whether our investment, our shared investment in the Argentine peso how it's doing.

[E]

Thanks, Scott.

[F]

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[G]

Michael Lewis here. My best selling book the Big Short tells the story of the buildup and burst of the US housing market back in 2008. A decade ago, the Big Short was made into an Academy Award winning movie and now I'm bringing it to you for the first time as an audiobook narrated by yours truly. The Big Short Story what it means to bet against the market and who really pays for an unchanged checked financial system is as relevant today as it's ever been. Get the Big Short now at Pushkin FM Audiobooks or wherever audiobooks are sold.

[B]

So Argentina's economy in very troubling shape, but our own economy is in a strange place, I guess I would say.

[C]

I mean it's a little, you might say we're heading in an Argentine direction.

[B]

In the long run, that feels very extreme, but it is like very back and forth. I mean the job market is not, not looking great, but the economy's growing. The markets keep setting records, but then lower income Americans really struggling in a bunch of ways. The government is shut down, but prices are rising. If the economy had a mood ring, I would say it has mixed feelings.

[C]

Yeah. If you're an AI guy who posts a lot on Twitter, you're getting paid like a hundred million dollars.

[B]

These are your glory days.

[C]

Yeah. Just to show up. And if you're just like a regular person. There are no jobs available.

[B]

That's right. Hiring is like very, very low. But to help us kind of parse through this economy and figure out what we should be looking at, we are extremely lucky to have Kyla Scanlon, author of in this Economy, the best selling book, which you should buy, in the studio with us. Hi Kyla.

[D]

Hey, hey, hey, hey. Yeah, happy to be here.

[B]

If you aren't familiar with Kyla's work, Kyla does a lot of basically like education, like economic education, I would say. And you're always looking at different economic indicators from all over the economy. So Max and I wanted to see if you would talk about maybe three of the signs in this economy that are less talked about and kind of help us figure out what this economy looks like before we get started. Like, what do you think the mood of the economy is? You are after all the inventor of the term vibe session.

[D]

Yeah, yeah, I mean, I think like, you know, all that really matters right now is vibes because we don't have a lot of data. And so that's something I'm really paying attention to where it does seem like narrative is moving markets much more than any fundamentals. And then with the economy, like we obviously the government shut down so we don't have the data that we need to understand it. So I'm, I'm a bit worried.

[B]

Well, the first thing I wanted to ask about was, was feelings because of the vibe session. Consumer sentiment. A lot of surveys coming out sort of show the consumer sentiment is, is not doing great.

[D]

Yeah, I mean, Umich, the University of Michigan, who's like one of the core measures of consumer sentiment.

[C]

Oh yeah, Joanne Shue at the University of Michigan. We interviewed her well, what, like two months ago?

[B]

Yes, Y. About in fact feelings.

[D]

I mean the data that they have, sentiment moved basically sideways last month. We'll get a new print pretty soon. But I mean, sentiment has been going down. People are really concerned, I think pretty much across the board. So yeah, people are feeling great right now.

[B]

Why does that matter? Do you know what I mean? I mean, feeling, feelings matter. I'm all about feelings, but like, why is that a big deal?

[D]

I mean like there's all sorts of reasons that people have been talking about since the beginning of like the economy. Like Cain said, animal spirits. The idea that like emotions really move markets and sort of fundamentals don't always reflect reality.

[B]

People aren't logical.

[D]

Right. They're irrational. And so I think like how people feel is ultimately a self fulfilling Prophecy for how they might spend. We saw a little bit of a disconnect with that over the past couple of years where people were like, I'm feeling really bad, but still retail sales were up. So I think like, I like that's.

[B]

Also like I've been there.

[D]

Sure.

[C]

Joanne's whole argument for like why the survey matters because like if you're feeling bad, they don't spend as much money and, and that on a macro level adds up to a recession.

[B]

Basically people are spending more even though they're feeling bad.

[D]

Well, that was the idea of obsession, which was back in 2022, so like 50 years ago at this point. But like it was this disconnect between data and sentiment. And so like the economic data during that time, like GDP was booming, inflation was going down, the labor market was strong, but people were feeling like still really terrible. And so it didn't end up being that self fulfilling prophecy. Like we were not in a recession in 2022. Although Google search number for recession actually spiked around 2022.

[B]

Everyone was googling, are we in a recession?

[D]

Oh my gosh. So it's interesting, like I think because the economy has become so concentrated right now, especially in AI, it's not always capturing, I think, how the everyday person is feeling. People talk about this with regards to GDP all the time, that it doesn't do a good job at capturing, you know, how the average person feels. And so I think that's what we see more and more is that the economic data might not be telling us the full story.

[B]

So consumer sentiment, red light, green light.

[D]

Yellow light in terms of where it's at right now. Yeah, I think we have the hard data to back up some of the sentiment. At least we did before the shutdown. Like, you know, the only jobs that were being added was in healthcare and social services. Every other sector was shedding jobs, manufacturing, finance, technology. And so like it's pretty tough to feel good in an environment like that. And then inflation, like grocery prices are, you know, through the roof. And so I think people are like, oh yuck, gross. So the data is enforcing the sentiment this time around. Yeah.

[B]

So red light.

[D]

I think so.

[B]

All right, so the second thing is a little bit more numbers based, a little more concrete, which is loan delinquencies. So car loan delinquencies are up, car repossessions are, are apparently really spiking right now. This is especially scary because a lot of times people see this as a canary in a coal mine because those are some of the first loans people default on before mortgage loans and things like that. And I think in the first housing crisis this was one of the real red flags that things were going south. People were not making their car payments. So what do you see here?

[D]

I mean I think we're seeing a lot of the auto lenders begin to go under. So first Brands is like one example of that tricolor which JP Morgan lost 1,75 million dol million on. And then Primaland is also like oops. So I think that's really scary.

[C]

Now these, these bankruptcies, Tricolor and First Brands, I've seen analysis that have suggested that it isn't like some kind of economic indicator that it says something more about these specific businesses, which I guess happens. It's possible that like First Brand is just a bad company or that Tricolor was. I think the, the story there is they were selling to undocumented immigrants and like that was a.

[B]

That's prime loans anyway.

[C]

Right. But that like, in other words, it might not indicate some kind of broader economic. Right, right. That seems like the question. Yeah.

[D]

But now with Promoland, I think everyone's like, okay, this keeps happening. Like you know, once you have three dominoes, it's like, okay, the whole pile might be tipping over. So I think because it keeps on happening. And then some of the regional banks have made fraudulent loans and like people will come out and be like, I think the whole regional banking sector is fine, but with the government shutdown, like they don't have as much float as they normally would. And so I think like everything is sort of compressing around the regional banks and around the auto lenders. And people are having trouble making their payments maybe because they are out of work or because the payments are just through the roof. I mean I used to sell cars. I used to sell Hyundais back like in. Yeah. 2017, 2019. That was before we had the big run up in interest rates and it was like crazy if we put some. Somebody on an 84 month loan. And now it's much more commonplace for people to have 84 month.

[C]

You mean a long loan? Because the interest rate on a long loan is, is lower than.

[D]

Right.

[B]

How long is 84?

[D]

Seven years.

[B]

Okay.

[D]

And the car depreciates like right when.

[B]

You drive it off the lot.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

Were you selling new cars?

[C]

But you would never say that when you were selling a Hyundai. Right. You would be like, this is gonna, this is gonna last for 10 years.

[D]

Well, 10 year, 100,000 mile warranty. Yeah, but it's tricky. It's really tricky because like I Don't know. I. I could. We could do a separate podcast on my struggles of selling cars. But yeah, people came in. You need a car. Like the United States and most parts of the country does not have public transit. So people have to have a car to go to work. And so I dealt with a lot of people who were coming in and, you know, needed to get to college or they needed to get to their job, and they were like, what can I afford? And the way that you make it more affordable for them is extending out the payments.

[B]

What do you see as the significance of this for the economy? Is this. Is this a big deal? Not a big deal.

[D]

I mean, it's definitely a point of concern when people can't make payments. And I think, like, it's something to. To watch because it is sort of the first domino. So fall. To use that metaphor again. And I think you could see people starting to miss their mortgage payments, like sort of how we saw in 2008. So it just means that people are struggling. And I think people were already overextended with cars because is the US does have like a car culture going on where you got some.

[B]

Yeah, we've definitely got a car.

[D]

Yeah, you got some tricked out SUVs that are like, real expensive. And the pickup trucks, like, those things are crazy.

[B]

In Idaho, like pickup. Like, people spend all their money on pickup. Yeah, it's like the first thing you buy when you come into a little money. It's a pickup.

[D]

Exactly.

[B]

So green light, red light, yellow light for loan delinquencies.

[D]

I think it's a yellow light. Like, I mean, I'm really watching the sort of private credit situation. Like, that's a $2 trillion industry. They're pretty exp. Goes to some of the stuff that's.

[B]

Rolling out private credits, like private loans.

[D]

Private credit is essentially like pre PE firms, other investment firms.

[B]

Private equity.

[D]

Yes. Lending money to companies. So instead of this company.

[B]

So this is like on a macro scale, as opposed to lending to regular, like, individuals.

[D]

Yeah. So like, if like you're a company and you're like, okay, I don't necessarily want to borrow money from a bank, you could go to a private credit.

[C]

Well, and with both Tricolor and First Brands, that was one of the elements. You had banks lending money to these companies and private credit firms and they weren't talking to each other. So in addition to the like, economic signal that a subprime auto lender sends, you have this kylo's bringing up the. The risk that like this spills over into Some kind of financial crisis, the.

[D]

Cockroaches, as Jamie diamond for the CEO of JP Morgan said. And you know, they did lose $171 million on tricolor. And so there was actually like a little bit of drama between him and one of the private credit CEOs blue out because Jamie D. Said he was like, I'm paraphrasing, but like once one cockroach comes crawling out, like a bunch of them are going to come crawling out. Like, if you've ever met a family of cockroaches, that is what happens. And so he was implying that, like, because these auto companies are starting to go under, there's like more to follow. And then the Blue Owl CEO is like, hey, man, you're, you're complicit too.

[C]

You're a cockroach, if that's what you're talking about.

[B]

Speaking of cockroach.

[C]

Yeah. I'm glad you brought up Jamie Dimon and cockroaches, because that was our third signal and I'm going to take it as a segue. So Jamie Diamond, I believe it was it on Wednesday or Tuesday. It was earlier this week as we're recording, Jamie diamond opened up the new headquarters of JP Morgan Chase. It is spectacular. The word that's used in all of these stories about it is fortress. It has like restaurants and there's a club in it. A club. There's all sorts of nightclub.

[B]

Only for employees.

[C]

No, no, not like a daycare, like a bar, beach club. Yeah, No, I don't know.

[B]

Only for employees like you. Just like you. And I can't go.

[C]

I think it's a pub, right? Is it actually a club? I don't know, but there's like, I.

[B]

Don'T know as a non employee and.

[C]

Jamie Dimon, in talking about this is, is talking about it as this kind of like statement thing about coming back to the office. What a, what a believer he is in return to office. And he's bought this thing and, and kind of like we're seeing this across the economy, like all of these companies talking about, you know, return to office and the importance of it. And I'm kind of curious, like to your mind, like, what is actually happening there? Because it was only like a few years ago when all the leading lights actually not Jamie diamond, who has been pretty steadfastly about putting butts in seats, but most of the leading lights of businesses were like, all about, you know, remote work. There are all these remote first companies.

[B]

From the moment they were all about remote work.

[C]

And I'm just kind of wondering, like, like, what has happened here is. Is it that, like, conventional Wisdom has gone 180 degrees, or is it a labor market? Or is it some combination of those two things?

[D]

I mean, I think companies just want to see what people are up to. Yeah.

[B]

It's just like a power move.

[D]

Yeah, probably. Right. Like, it's. I think a lot of people were concerned about the productivity of workers at home. I think people are perfectly productive. But, yeah, I think there's, like, we want everybody here. And then it's a good workforce culling effect. So if people are like, I'm not going to come back to the office. This. It's like you're.

[B]

You're quiet firing. This is the term, right? Quiet firing.

[D]

Is that the term?

[B]

Yeah, that. It's like a way of, like, you. Yeah. Instead of actually firing people, you just put a bunch of barriers in place. Yeah. You put a bunch of things in place and it's like, oh, no, you're not fired. You just have to. It's sort of like, hey, Cinderella, like, you can go to the ball. You just have to, like, clean the staircase. And then, oh, you didn't get that all done. I'm so sorry. You can't go to the ball. It's like, that's the same.

[C]

Yeah. There's lots of this going on with, like, relocations, especially people who move to other cities during COVID I know a.

[B]

Bunch of people that if it's like, oh, yeah, you gotta move here, move.

[D]

Back to the big city. Yeah.

[C]

I think this has absolutely nothing to do with productivity. I think this is 100 about the labor market. It's just like, they can do it, so they're doing it. And if the labor market were better, tighter, then they wouldn't be doing it. And I also think the fact that Jamie Dimon invested a reported $3 billion in this headquarters is probably contributing to his desire to have everyone, like, fill it up. It's like, it's like once you've.

[B]

He doesn't want to be the only person at the club.

[C]

Once you've paid for this, like, it looks pretty bad if it's empty.

[D]

Yeah. Workers don't have a lot of power right now, so I think companies are using that as a get back to the office sort of thing.

[B]

What do you see as the significance of that in the economy?

[D]

It's interesting. Like, you know, we don't have a very clear picture of the labor market right now because we don't have the economic data from the government, but like the Chicago Fed has some real time indicators that they released. And like their indicators are like the labor markets mostly. Okay. But then when you look at like private market data, it's telling a little bit of a different story. Like adp, you know, there was a job losses there. So I think like it's just a very confusing labor market and AI is causing some problems. And then also it's not very broad. Like the only jobs are healthcare and social services.

[B]

Well, and hiring, like, I feel like that's like the real low.

[D]

Hiring. Yeah.

[B]

Right now at least it's just like still. Which is weird except for, I guess, all the time.

[D]

Well, I mean, if you're a business and you're dealing with tariffs, you're dealing with fiscal policy uncertainty, you know, maybe even you're paying attention to the Fed rate cuts. Like maybe you don't want to hire.

[C]

People right now or if you're a worker, why, like this is not a good time to change jobs. Like I be, you know, it's. And it's this exact same factor you're talking about with businesses. Like, uncertainty makes us not want to move.

[D]

Right. Totally.

[B]

So Kyla, green light, yellow light, red.

[D]

Light with the labor market. I'm so worried about the labor market. Yeah, I, I just like. So like I do videos on social media and.

[B]

Which are great, you should check them out. You do one every day?

[D]

Almost every day.

[B]

Look at all different aspects of the.

[D]

Yeah, they're really great. I get a lot of messages from people and like my audience is primarily young people and they're, they're great. But like a lot of people are like, Kyla, I cannot find a job right now. And so I have like anecdotal data that I think might be influencing me a bit more. But yeah, I'm, I'm like, red light on the labor market. Yeah. Yeah.

[B]

So you're red light on the job market, sounds like.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

Well, what about the overall economy?

[D]

I don't know. I mean, I'm worried. I'm just worried and I hate it. I've been on the road for the past year and a half. I'm in like six states over the next four weeks and I get to talk to a lot of people from all over the country in all parts of the country. And like the one thing I hear just like, I'm worried about the economy, you know, I absorb all that and then I look at the data that we have and I just see like this point of concern and like, I'm really worried about the divergence between the stock market and the economy too. Like AI is driving so much of economic growth, is driving so much of the stock market and I just feel like it is disconnected from the material reality of the average person.

[C]

Kyla, this was great. Stick around. We've got one more second for you.

[F]

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[H]

What are the consequences of getting on Europe's bad side?

[B]

The rationale is more like those guys.

[H]

How is stealth wealth changing retail?

[D]

You can have taste and still buy dupes.

[H]

What does a $6.2 million banana have to do with any of us? People don't like the attribution of serious financial value to comedy. Join me, Felix Salmon, and my co hosts Emily Peck and Elizabeth Spires as we talk about the most important and obscure stories in business and finance. Follow Slate Money wherever you like to listen.

[C]

So Kyla Stacy, this week in BusinessWeek we published a cover story about Gavin Newsom. This is the latest, like very Kyla.

[B]

Lives in in California.

[C]

Yeah, you're governor. The the point of the story is that there is this fight, which I actually hadn't been paying super close attention to, over Proposition 50. This is California's potential plan to add a bunch of Democratic House seats to like compete with the Texas redistricting. And the larger point is basically like Gavin Newsom. He has not said he's running for president, but he's definitely running for president. And I've been thinking about that. And I've been thinking about that in light of a detail in this story that I think is that is my bid for underrated story, which is Gavin Newsom's favorite favorite drink, which is a bottle of 1947 Cheval Blanc, which is a very, very, very, very, very, very expensive bottle of wine. And I read this. It's really funny because Gavin Newsom is trying to rebrand himself as, like, a regular guy. He's got a podcast. He, like, hangs out with the brocades.

[B]

Fancy bottles of wine is not the way to rebrand yourself.

[C]

In the business Weeks story where. Where the authors, Josh Green and Eliu Chemer, they have a quote from one of Gavin's friends who says, when people say, who is Gavin? I say, he's one of us. He's me. If you know Gav, like, I know him, you know him with the hat on backwards. You know, I'm drinking a beer, hanging out, watching ball, talking sports, you know, talking about things. Okay, so that's.

[B]

Gavin Newsome said that about himself.

[C]

That's one of his friends. And then there's a little nice little parenthetical that mentions that Gavin Newsom's favorite bottle of wine is a 47 cheval blanc, which costs, like we say, $15,000 in the story. I mean, I. I think there's so many.

[B]

Favorite bottle of wine implies that you've purchased this more than once.

[C]

Okay, so now this is my question. Do we think this is bad in a political candidate or not? Because it seems like, obviously very bad to be like, I'm one of the bros. I just like to have an expensive bottle of wine. But I also thought, like, here's Gavin Newsom last year. This is, I think, where the detail comes from, talking about his favorite bottle of wine.

[E]

Is there one bottle of wine that you're saving for a very special occasion? I need a year or two. This is where your political consultants are not going to like my answer, because I can give an honest answer. But let me not. I read that book on Applebee's after we lost one of the getting a.

[C]

Politician to talk about wine.

[E]

Oh, of course. Newsom said, you know, 1947, which was the answer you question. Of course he would say that.

[C]

Okay, so he's being real.

[B]

Well, I'm not sure that that is the way to appeal to the people. I don't know. I've never had a $20,000 bottle of wine. I've never had a $200 bottle of wine.

[D]

I didn't even know wine was that expensive. Yeah. Wow. Why. Why is it so expensive? Is it just rarity or scarcity?

[B]

I think it's from 1947 years old.

[C]

I. I actually pulled up A, like a article about this.

[D]

How many bottles do they have, like, from this year?

[C]

Very, very few. And according to Sotheby's, the. The Sotheby's website, which has a write up on this, it's. They're basically. They say there are vanishingly few bottles left in the world and only 16 left at the chateau itself.

[B]

I just feel like, remember there was like that Jeff Foxworthy used to have that whole thing where he's like, you know, you're a redneck when, you know, he had the whole thing. I feel like there is some equivalent of like, you know, you are not one of the people. When your favorite wine costs. First of all, when your favorite wine is described by Sotheby's, like, when your favorite drink.

[D]

Whoa.

[C]

And I guess this is like part of the political moment we're in. Like walk a line between. Between being relatable and his authentic self. His authentic self.

[D]

I don't know if we can like, beat up on him too much. Like, comparatively to what. What the president has earned, you know, I think it's a billion dollars in crypto or something like that.

[B]

That's true. It's done quite well and a jit.

[D]

I just, I think we got to, like, look at the policies and. And decide from there. I don't think it's great. I didn't even know wine could be that expensive. But, you know, maybe it's. He sounds like he's in business.

[C]

I think that I actually, like, felt like this was a very, very damaging detail until I watched that video. And then I thought, no, he's just being who he is and that. And like, actually maybe in our moment, that is more valuable than the like, you know, old saw about. He's just a regular guy, you know, you have a beer with. Although there's something kind of clumsy about the baseball. The backwards baseball cap.

[D]

I mean, that. That's not a good depiction of like, what the everyday.

[C]

I mean, when I relax, I turn the cap around.

[B]

That's how you know it's like after hours.

[I]

Yeah.

[D]

Yeah. Beer in hand. Oh, my goodness. I think a PR firm could do some work with that.

[B]

Our show is produced by Stacy Wong. Magnus Henriksen is our supervising producer and Amy Keen is our executive producer. Sam Rogich handles engineering and Dave Purcell, fact checks. Sage Bauman heads Bloomberg Podcast. Special thanks to Jeff Muskus, Julia Rubin and Maria Ling. If you have a minute, please rate and review the show. It means a lot to us. And if you have a story that should be our business, email us@everybody's bloomberg.net that is everybody's with an sloomberg.net we would love to hear from you and thank you very much for listening. We will see you next week.

[D]

Foreign.

[I]

This is Tom Keene inviting you to join me for the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. It's about making you smarter each and every business day. We bring you a recap of what happened overnight in Europe and Asia, the day's economic data and complete coverage of the US Market open. We cover stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, even crypto. Crypto. All the information you need to excel. Bloomberg Surveillance also brings you the analysis behind the headlines. We do that with lengthy conversations with our expert guests, the smartest names in economics, finance, investment and international relations. We do all this live each and every weekday, then bring you the best analysis in our daily podcast. Search for Bloomberg surveillance and you YouTube, Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen on the east coast. Listen at lunch and on the west coast when you wake up. That's the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast with me, Tom Keane, along with Paul Sweeney and Lisa Mateo. Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts.