Everybody's Business

Episode: "Meet Polymarket’s $400 Million Man"

Original Air Date: October 17, 2025

Hosts: Max Chafkin & Brad Stone (in for Stacey Vanek Smith)
Notable Guests: Amanda Mull (Bloomberg Businessweek), "Domer" (Top Polymarket Trader)

Episode Overview

This episode of Everybody’s Business dives into prediction markets and the personalities fueling their rapid growth—specifically focusing on Domer, the top trader on Polymarket who has wagered over $400 million. Alongside this in-depth interview, the show explores the surging “credit card wars” among America’s elite, and ends with conversation on OpenAI’s newly salacious chatbot features. The episode’s tone is sharp, curious, sometimes incredulous, and always lively.

Key Segments & Themes

1. Dreamforce, San Francisco & the Benioff Backlash

[01:15–07:58]

• Main Discussion:
  Hosts chat with Amanda Mull about the annual Salesforce Dreamforce conference in San Francisco, noting the event’s irony as "the big event" in a city once known for counterculture.

• Marc Benioff Controversy:
  Intense focus on Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff’s apparent political shift; once a liberal icon, Benioff recently suggested welcoming federal troops into San Francisco to address safety concerns during Dreamforce, a move widely panned and now being walked back.

  • "He has done a complete 180 since Trump's election." – Stacey Vanek Smith [03:12]

• Local Perspective:
  Bloomberg’s Yana Knoedler interviews attendees on the ground. General consensus: excitement for the event, some concerns about city safety, and confusion or ambivalence about Benioff's comments.

• Satirical Edge:

  • "I think you, you said this earlier, but I mean, there would be a naked bike protest for sure if, if the National Guard comes in and a naked bike protest that would dwarf Portland, Oregon's naked bikes." – Stacey Vanek Smith [07:14]

2. The Credit Card Wars: America's Rich and the Battle for Wallets

[08:05–20:41]

• Report Summary:
  Amanda Mull discusses her latest Businessweek piece on “points maxing” and the escalating competition among high-end credit cards (Amex Platinum, Chase Sapphire Reserve, Capital One Venture X, and others).

• Key Insights:

  • Interchange Fees:
    Credit card profits are increasingly driven not by interest on balances, but by merchant-paid “interchange fees,” which are highest for premium cards and almost unavoidable for merchants targeting wealthy consumers.

    • "If stores want to sell things to those customers and they very much do, they just sort of have to eat it.” – Amanda Mull [11:43]

  • Experiential Perks:
    Card companies now sponsor luxury experiences (US Open suites, fancy airport lounges, premium events) to attract top spenders, broadening well beyond travel perks into sports, dining, wellness, exclusive shopping.

  • “Prestige and Plunk Factor":
    Metal credit cards foster both a real and perceived sense of status.

    • "Within the industry, they call it plunk factor.” – Amanda Mull [15:46]

  • Economic Implication – The K-Shaped Economy:
    The premiumization of cards reflects an economy where the top 10% of households now drive over 50% of consumer spending.

    • "Brands...are looking at their sales data, looking at the economic data and going, there's not all that many people spending money..." – Amanda Mull [18:25]

• Memorable Moment:
  Amanda reveals she carries an Amex Delta Reserve—not the "standard" Amex Platinum—because the Delta perks are better for her as an Atlanta native, highlighting how intricate and targeted these offers have become.

  • "It's purple. It's a lovely shade of purple." – Amanda Mull [19:47]

3. Polymarket's $400 Million Man: The Rise of Domer

[21:20–38:05]

[Detailed Interview: 22:52–37:55]

• Background on Domer (“just waking up” on Polymarket):
  The hosts introduce Domer as possibly the most prolific (and successful) prediction market bettor on Polymarket. His bets total over $400 million—a mix of high volume and high skill.

• Domer's Origin Story:

  • Began as a professional online poker player before shifting to prediction markets in the late 2000s, drawn to areas like the Oscars and politics.
  • "I started to make more money doing poker than I was at my job...And then I found where you could bet on stuff like the Oscars." – Domer [23:46]

• Day-to-Day for a Prediction Trader:

  • Obsessive news monitoring; “sleep is the enemy" since any breaking story could swing a market.
  • "The first thing I do when I get up is I look at my phone. Do I have alerts what has happened overnight?...in prediction markets, kind of sleep is the enemy." – Domer [24:48]

• Why Prediction Markets, Not Stocks?:

  • Higher potential payouts due to binary (0 to 100) outcomes and clearer “truth arbiter," less luck than poker, and a more direct link between information and outcome.
  • "What kind of drew me to prediction markets was like, you can be right about something and you would be paid off. You can do the research, you can find the answer, and it's like, there's not that much luck involved..." – Domer [26:12]
  • On market mechanics: "That's a 20 to 1 payoff. That's gigantic." – Domer [29:39]

• Breadth and Scale:
  Approximately 1,000 open bets, with some (like Taylor Swift's album sales) carrying personal risks upwards of $600,000–$1 million.

  • "Maybe closing in on a million. Yeah." – Domer [28:35]

• How Bets Resolve (Taylor Swift example):

  • After the interview, Domer shares the result: he bet on two related, but distinct, markets about Swift album sales—one including streaming, one not. Both bets hit by slim margins, netting him ~$80,000.
    • "A miracle literally happened...I won both bets because the one went to above 4 million 4.005. And then the second one was like 3.487 or something." – Domer [36:44]
    • "I ended up making around $80,000." – Domer [37:52]

• On Market Integrity & Insider Risk:

  • Acknowledges “insider trading” risk in small markets but claims to adjust his risk accordingly.
    • “If I have assessed that a market could be insider traded, like, I'll probably put a lot less liquidity on that. So, I mean, you can kind of figure it out, but obviously it is an issue.” – Domer [34:21]

• The Mainstreaming of Prediction Markets:

  • Movement from fringe to Wall Street attention, driven by desire to bet directly on events (e.g., recessions) and a culture increasingly comfortable with probabilistic thinking (“Nate Silver was a nobody in 2008...now it’s such a big focus.”) – Domer [31:57]

• Hosts’ Concerns:

  • Brad Stone and Stacey Vanek Smith warn: "Normal people just screwing around on the Internet are not necessarily as attuned to the risks...if you’re going to try to bet in the mayor’s race, not only might you be betting against Eric Adams himself, but you could also just be betting in some very sophisticated traders who are better at this than Domer." — Stacey Vanek Smith [35:45–36:07]

4. Underrated: OpenAI’s “Perv Mode” & AI Companionship

[39:24–43:43]

• Sam Altman’s Announcement:
  OpenAI will soon support “mature content” in its chatbots thanks to age verification—enabling ChatGPT to engage in “after hours” conversations.

• Hosts’ Reaction:

  • Both humorous and skeptical.
    • Chafkin: “If you have a great business, you want to charge big companies lots of money...YouTube didn’t have adult content. Facebook didn’t have adult content...So the fact that ChatGPT is doing this feels like a bearish signal for, for the company.” [41:49]
    • Mull: “He says that they've solved mental health, first of all, which is what a, you know, what an advance for society.” [41:59]

• Concerns Raised:

  • Ethical worries about vulnerable users, blurred boundaries between AI and real-life relationships, temptation for the AI companies to chase user growth via titillation, and the “sweaty” feeling (“cooking your brain on X") of the whole move.
    • “It seems sweaty in like, a couple of ways.” – Amanda Mull [43:12]

Notable Quotes

• On the Credit Card Wars:

  • “If stores want to sell things to those customers and they very much do, they just sort of have to eat it.” — Amanda Mull [11:43]

• On Domer’s Risk Tolerance:

  • “It’s a risky endeavor. Yes. You have a parachute if you’re, quote, unquote, betting on a stock. In prediction markets, there’s no parachute." — Domer [30:44]

• On Prediction Markets’ Surge:

  • “Nate Silver was a nobody in 2008...now it’s such a big focus. They're thinking about the world in numbers. And prediction markets is a good way to show the world in numbers." — Domer [31:57]

• On AI's New Direction:

  • "First of all, [Sam Altman] says that they've solved mental health, which is what a, you know, what an advance for society...It does seem sort of sweaty. Like, it seems a good word." — Amanda Mull [41:59; 43:12]

Episode Timeline

• 01:15–07:58 – Dreamforce & San Francisco politics
• 08:05–20:41 – Amanda Mull: Credit Card Wars and economic stratification
• 21:20–38:05 – The Polymarket Power User: Domer interview, bet resolution, and implications
• 39:24–43:43 – OpenAI's “perv mode” announcement and ramifications

Tone & Takeaways

• The episode skillfully mixes skepticism, admiration, and humor—probing both the promise and the pitfalls of new business trends.
• Listeners are left with a vivid sense of how financial incentives shape consumer products (credit cards), the complexities and social effects of betting on news itself (prediction markets), and the sometimes strange directions Silicon Valley’s best and brightest are now venturing (AI companionship).

For those who missed it:
This episode is a punchy, news-rich conversation blending wonkiness, behind-the-scenes reporting, and a look at oddball characters pushing the boundaries of business, money, and technology. If you’re intrigued by the collision of high finance, internet culture, or just really big bets, it’s not to be missed.