Stacey Vanek Smith (2:27)

The points guy. I have so many questions for him.

Max Shafkin (2:30)

You're not gonna want to miss this. You gotta listen to this episode, hopefully live before you book your summer travel.

Stacey Vanek Smith (2:35)

There are a few seats left. They are saved just for you. You can go to on airpresents.com scroll down until you see an image of the show of, of Our Faces of me and Max. You can tap on our faces and request an invite. That's on airpresents.com and tap the request an invite button.

Max Shafkin (2:52)

Hope to see you there on the 5th.

Stacey Vanek Smith (2:54)

Okay, Max. To the show. This week we are focusing on two lawsuits, lawsuits that will potentially shape our future in technology and in health.

Mark Gurman (3:05)

Yeah.

Max Shafkin (3:06)

The first one is OpenAI, which is facing a legal battle with Elon Musk, who started the company with CE Sam Altman, initially as a nonprofit that would benefit humanity. I'd say, Stacey, they have both taken it in another direction. Now.

Stacey Vanek Smith (3:21)

They are definitely not a nonprofit fighting

Max Shafkin (3:23)

about it in court in Oakland. And meanwhile, while that is happening, OpenAI has another plan, another way to increase its profits.

Mark Gurman (3:33)

If you have this AI technology, you don't want to be reliant on Apple for connecting with your customers. You want your own product, your own ecosystem that customers can go out and buy. And so this is why they're all trying to build hardware. And this is why OpenAI wants to build its own hardware.

Stacey Vanek Smith (3:49)

Yes. Now, the second lawsuit has to do with the Make America Healthy Again movement. The Supreme Court is hearing a case right now that will decide whether the company, Bayer, which owns the weed killer Roundup, can be shielded from lawsuits from people who say that Roundup made them sick.

Dina Shanker (4:05)

For Democrats, I think it's been a huge miss for them to not be pushing this harder. I mean, it, it is extreme, like by definition, a kitchen table issue because it's not the food on our kitchen table. The agricultural industry is also very powerful and very dispersed around the country. And so, you know, the Democrats, I think, had so many opportunities to really own the food issue and never took it.

Max Shafkin (4:33)

This is everybody's business. From Bloomberg Businessweek, I'm Max Chavkin.

Stacey Vanek Smith (4:36)

And I'm Stacey Vanek Smith. Today on the show, what happens to a mission when the lawsuits start and when that mission starts to get expensive? Stay with us,

Max Shafkin (4:51)

Stacy. OpenAI keeps finding its way onto this show for all sorts of reasons, which makes sense because it's one of the most popular AI chatbots. It has evaluation of 850 billion, plans to go even bigger. They are trying to go public at some point this year. Meanwhile, a lot of analysts think there's a bubble now as we record OpenAI is beating back reports which it denies, saying it is missing its internal projections. Regardless, AI has been a huge story here, and you really can't talk about it without talking about this company.

Stacey Vanek Smith (5:27)

Yes. And there is a strong chance that as you are listening to us right now. You are listening to us on a smartphone. And there is also a strong chance that on that very smartphone, you have ChatGPT or some other similar app like Claude. These apps, this technology, it is just transforming our lives and will soon very likely be transforming our phones and maybe all of our hardware.

Max Shafkin (5:52)

Yeah, these AI companies want to make phones, and so we wanted to kind of do a little early market research for them.

Stacey Vanek Smith (5:58)

Yes.

Max Shafkin (5:58)

So we sent our producer, you're welcome, Miles J. Herzenhorn, to the streets of New York to ask people, first of all, how often do they even get a new phone? How often do they upgrade and would they consider upgrading to a phone that. That has a lot more AI in it?

Mark Gurman (6:11)

How old is your cell phone?

Max Shafkin (6:13)

I don't know. I have no idea.

Stacey Vanek Smith (6:16)

Probably since three years old, I upgrade

Max Shafkin (6:21)

my phone about, like, one year to two years. But now, recently, it's been like every, you know, two to three years since, like, technology has been, like, plateauing. Five years and mine is two. How often do you try to upgrade your phone?

Stacey Vanek Smith (6:36)

Every two years old, three years, when it's like, stop. Stop working because of the battery and all that stuff.

Max Shafkin (6:43)

Yeah, same once it. For each five, six years, something like that.

Dina Shanker (6:49)

Not often. Unless something happens to my phone, I really don't care.

Mark Gurman (6:53)

What extent are you looking forward to

Max Shafkin (6:54)

having AI technology in your phone? Well, I actually deal with, like, AI just a little bit. I don't think that there is, like, a certain sort of a need. I think the whole, like, Siri thing kind of, like, flopped out.

Dina Shanker (7:05)

I don't even use it, the artificial intelligence part, because it's somehow in the back of my mind. I think it's creeping into my privacy. I get a little bit paranoid about it.

Max Shafkin (7:18)

So, no, I think it's accelerating too fast. It's making people lazy and not to think for themselves, taking away their ability to learn. I really respect the utmost respect. The person who said she doesn't know when she got her phone. That is awesome. I feel like the longer you can go, the better.

Stacey Vanek Smith (7:38)

I remember when I got my phone, but only because it was right before the tariffs. It was right. It was right after Liberation Day. I ran out and got a phone.

Max Shafkin (7:48)

I'm probably. I'm probably gonna get a new phone because, like, I write about technology and I have to. But I would love to get to a place where I just. I don't replace it unless I drop it in the ocean.

Stacey Vanek Smith (7:57)

Do you drop your phone?

Max Shafkin (7:59)

My ambition accidentally. I don't know. We have a great person to Talk about this. Bloomberg Managing editor of Consumer Technology, Mark Gurman. He is the person in this newsroom that I talk to when I want to understand really anything about the kind of personal hardware that defines our lives. Increasingly he covers Apple like the gadget. He covers gadgets in general. Mark, welcome to everybody's business.

Mark Gurman (8:26)

Thanks for having me. Glad to be here.

Max Shafkin (8:28)

Okay, so we wanted to talk to you because OpenAI right now they're in the news. There is a very interesting trial going on in Oakland between Elon Musk and Sam Altman. There have been a swirl of reports around OpenAI's valuation and are they hitting their metrics, is there enough usage, is there an AI bubble? And there's also this kind of weird report that came out earlier this week that OpenAI is getting closer to developing some consumer hardware, particularly a smartphone. And leaving aside the Musk drama, the valuation. Can you just try to explain to us why they're doing this and what exactly we think they're doing?

Mark Gurman (9:11)

Yeah, we've known for some time now that OpenAI has ambitions in hardware. Jony, I've who just taking a step back here who ran design for Apple, he left in 2019 and after that he, he started up a design shop with another designer named Mark Newsom and it's called Love from based in San Francisco and they've done some one off things. They've worked with the UK government on a font, they created a lamp that you take sailing. They've done other fun quirky things.

Max Shafkin (9:42)

Interior of a Ferrari I believe.

Mark Gurman (9:43)

Interior of a Ferrari.

Stacey Vanek Smith (9:44)

These are very odd undertakings.

Mark Gurman (9:47)

They're all niche, right?

Dina Shanker (9:49)

Yes.

Mark Gurman (9:49)

But Jony, I've is known for all the Apple products we use today. The Apple Watch was his brainchild and he had this arrangement with Apple where couldn't really get into the consumer electronics game I would guess for a three year period and whatnot. A non compete, a non compete type of thing. And he worked with Apple post departure as well. They did some one off work together on a contractual basis but that all ended around 2022 and obviously the guy who helped make the consumer tech we use every day, he's going to have the itch to get back into the game. So around then he started working on a startup called IO at the time and the idea was to create AI hardware and AI devices. And early on in that process he got introduced to Sam Altman and saw what he was doing with ChatGPT and OpenAI. And his thinking at the time, Jony, I've's thinking was AI is going to enable entirely new wave of consumer hardware and consumer technology. You know, he had this idea where people have become too addicted to screens and their phones and headsets and whatnot. And he felt that AI could help him recreate these devices in a way that would counter this addiction, counter people being glued to their displays and their phones and iPads at all times. And so they partnered together. And Sam Altman was part of this IO to a certain extent. And Jony, I've brought in a bunch of the best that you saw at Apple working on products there. From an IP standpoint, you can likely argue with it, but from a talent perspective, it's hard to argue that they're getting the best of the best there. But now I o is part of OpenAI and they are working on what they say is a family of AI devices. My understanding is that they're looking and working on basically everything you can imagine. But the one thing you really need if you want to be a successful consumer electronics company is something you can put in your pocket, right? And we think of a phone today as this smartphone, this slab of glass with this display. But really a phone could be anything with cellular connectivity that allows you to make phone calls. And so the ultimate goal has been from the beginning for OpenAI to create an iPhone killer, an AI phone from the ground up. And that's what I expect them to do before the end of the decade. But certainly that's not going to be their first device. I anticipate their first device being more of an accessory, something in the smart speaker earbuds, smart glasses realm. And then eventually I think that'll all make way towards the OpenAI phone.

Stacey Vanek Smith (12:15)

Why would they want to get into the hardware business? The hardware business is so tough. I feel like a lot of great companies tried and failed to make a phone. Anthropic is going in a much different, more sort of software driven direction, from what I understand. Why is AI going in this direction?

Mark Gurman (12:33)

It's the same reason that you've seen Amazon in the past look at making a phone. It's the same reason why Google makes a phone. It's the same reason companies make a phone. Facebook tried to make a phone. And it's the reason right now why Meta is all in on building its own array of AI hardware devices. You know, they hired Alan Dye, the head of user interface at Apple at the end of last year and now he's driving the work along with their cto Andrew Bosworth, on making an array of AI devices. Why? Because Apple owns the consumer technology landscape because they are the hardware player, they are the platform. And if you have this AI technology, you don't want to be reliant on Apple for connecting with your customers. You want your own product, your own ecosystem that customers can go out and buy. And so this is why they're all trying to build hardware, and this is why OpenAI wants to build its own hardware. They don't want to rely on Apple being the distribution point for ChatGPT and their technology. They want to be their own distributor. They don't want to abide by Apple's app store rules. They don't want to abide by Apple's software development kits. They don't want to abide by what Apple allows and doesn't allow to run on their products. They want to issue their own products to consumers and have their technology on top of it and their own app store on top of it. They don't want to be within Apple's walled garden. They want to create their own garden.

Max Shafkin (13:46)

We should talk about what's happening in Apple, but before we get there, Mark, does it create any kind of cause for concern in your mind? Stacy mentioned this anthropic has had a lot of success marketing to businesses. We've seen reports that OpenAI, according to the Wall Street Journal, which OpenAI denied, was missing its revenue projections. This is a very competitive space. Do you have any sense that this is a company that is scrambling to find a way to continue growing, that there is maybe even like a hint of desperation in this ambition? Just because so many companies have done this, have tried to do this, and they have failed pretty miserably. We could probably debate on the Google one because Android is very successful, but there isn't like a big track record of tech companies attempting to compete with Apple and Samsung here and winning.

Mark Gurman (14:40)

Yeah, but OpenAI and Sam Altman have this secret sauce that is AI for all intents and purposes. They were the pioneer here. They do probably have still, even though Claude is up there and Gemini is up there, some of the best underlying AI technology, some of the best AI researchers, and that's a huge differentiator from what you have at Apple. And so if anyone is going to reinvent the hardware game, it's going to be OpenAI. But I don't think that this is a serious issue for Apple. And if OpenAI ends up doing anything successful, I think Apple's just going to copy them really quickly. So I'm not too worried for Apple there. The one concern I do have for Apple is in Terms of brain drain and talent drain. Anything that Apple's doing. OpenAI has hired from to a very large degree. And so that's the scary part for Apple if they're losing too many people to be able to keep up the pace of their own hardware development.

Max Shafkin (15:33)

Mark, we've seen a couple of efforts to create these, like, AI devices. There was a company called Humane. You tested the product. I think you might have called it like one of the worst products. I can't remember the exact wording. I don't want to.

Mark Gurman (15:46)

It is the worst product I've ever used.

Stacey Vanek Smith (15:48)

What was it?

Max Shafkin (15:48)

It was a. It was like a little pin that you wore on your chest. And the idea was like instead of looking at a screen, you would just talk to a chatbot. And it had all sorts of problems. The big problem, and Mark, correct me if I'm wrong, is it got really hot because of all the computing that was happening and the heat would both be uncomfortable, but also the battery would die really quick. There were all these problems and like

Stacey Vanek Smith (16:10)

set fire to your shirt.

Mark Gurman (16:11)

Okay, well, the biggest issue is that, you know, voice interaction already is not a perfect science. Perfect science is point and click with your computer or touchscreen, on your iPad or phone or whatever. Right. But interactivity over voice, sometimes it doesn't understand you. It's difficult to go back and forth. But theirs was just so slow and just didn't work properly that the buy was. The bar was already so high and they just did a horrible job implementation wise. The other thing they tried to do was replace the display with a laser system that you put your hand in front of it and it points a laser and so it's a laser projection screen on your hand.

Stacey Vanek Smith (16:49)

On your hand.

Mark Gurman (16:50)

And it just did not work well. Cool concept, but didn't work well.

Stacey Vanek Smith (16:54)

Mark, you mentioned that you thought open or I think from what I remember you mentioned that OpenAI by the in 10 years would have an iPhone killer. Do you think that is true? Do you think Apple, for all of its muscle and market dominance right now, could be taken out by OpenAI?

Mark Gurman (17:14)

I don't think they're going to be taken out by OpenAI.

Stacey Vanek Smith (17:16)

You don't think iPhone killer is happening?

Mark Gurman (17:19)

Well, sure, it could be an iPhone killer, but it's not going to be an iPhone replacement, if that makes sense. It might be better than the iPhone from a technical perspective, but I think Apple's brand and marketing is so strong that they're not going to go away and they're going to evolve very quickly at some point These AI models are going to become commoditized eventually. Apple's going to make acquisitions here and so I think they'll be able to get up the snuff in this AI game in fairly short order. But like you mentioned, the priority right now is becoming the AI middleman to play nicely with everyone else's AI.

Max Shafkin (17:52)

Mark, before we wrap, I think a lot of people who are maybe not following this conversation as closely as we are, certainly not as closely as you are, have this kind of question over, like, why do you have to keep replacing your iPhone? You know, there was the battery gate controversy that had to do with basically class action lawsuits saying Apple was deliberately slowing down its batteries. I think there's a feeling among, among a lot of users that like, why these iPhones, they kind of look the same, like why am I being made to upgrade? I'm curious, like what your personal upgrade philosophy is. Like, how often do you get a new phone? Maybe you answer that, but then answer it if you weren't. Mark Gurman, who's gotta be trying out the latest and greatest?

Mark Gurman (18:32)

Me personally, I've upgraded every year to the new iPhone. You probably don't need to get a new iPhone if you are not deep in the technology. See, the thing with me is I write about Apple, I write about tech, but that's not just my job. I live and breathe Apple and tech and devices as my personal passion and life's work and a hobby and you know, the thing that I'm most interested in life. I love basketball too. I love sports too. You know, some people are just obsessed with that or cars. But for me, this is not a job. It's my whole life. I am unique in that. From that standpoint, someone who does not live and breathe this stuff, you're probably good every three years, maybe four.

Max Shafkin (19:13)

Mark Gurman, thank you for being here. Check out his newsletter, Power On. If you're not already a subscriber, you should be. We really appreciate the time.

Mark Gurman (19:20)

Thank you both so much.

Max Shafkin (19:29)

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Stacey Vanek Smith (22:12)

All right, Max, I have a question for you.

Max Shafkin (22:15)

Okay.

Stacey Vanek Smith (22:15)

When was the last time you thought about what is on your salad?

Max Shafkin (22:19)

Stacy? Every single day.

Stacey Vanek Smith (22:20)

Every day? Constantly.

Max Shafkin (22:22)

Is it like more of a vinaigrette? Is it a sort of a ranch? A Caesar? That's always tasty.

Stacey Vanek Smith (22:27)

Yes. I always wonder what you're thinking about when you're sitting at your desk. And now I know. Actually a lot of people do not spend as much time thinking about what's on their salad as one must. But there is a growing group of Americans who are thinking about it a lot. And this week a big group of them Hundreds of them showed up outside of the Supreme Court. They are part of the Maha movement. This is Make America Healthy again. Yes.

Max Shafkin (22:51)

Gotcha.

Stacey Vanek Smith (22:51)

And this rally's organized around a Supreme Court decision involving Bayer, which is the company that makes the weed killer Roundup.

Max Shafkin (22:58)

They don't want pesticides on their salad.

Stacey Vanek Smith (23:00)

It is the pesticide on the salad, actually.

Max Shafkin (23:02)

Roundup is an herbicide, I believe, but I'm not a scientist.

Dina Shanker (23:06)

Pesticide is a term that applies to all the sides, so herbicides are included in the term.

Max Shafkin (23:13)

Thank you. And joining us now is Business Week side expert Dina Shanker. She's also a columnist here. Our colleague, she was at the rally. She wrote about it in her column, Extra Salt. And, Dina, welcome back to everybody's business.

Dina Shanker (23:26)

Thank you so much for having me.

Stacey Vanek Smith (23:28)

All right, so, Dina, why were these protesters outside the Supreme Court? Talk to us about this case.

Dina Shanker (23:33)

Okay, great. So we all know Monsanto, the company that makes or that made glyphosate, also known as Roundup, they got acquired by Bayer some years back. And since then, Bayer has been hit by lawsuit after lawsuit by plaintiffs claiming that glyphosate caused their cancer. They have had to pay off.

Stacey Vanek Smith (23:54)

They ate vegetables that had been treated with this.

Dina Shanker (23:58)

A lot of farmers and people that work with the pesticide got sick from working with it.

Max Shafkin (24:02)

Okay.

Dina Shanker (24:03)

But although I can't say for sure whether there's also. There's so many of these cases, I could not tell you whether there's consumers in there, too. So far already, Bayer has paid out over $10 billion, including legal costs, but as well as payouts, because juries have found in favor of the plaintiffs. So Bayer, right now, in front of the Supreme Court, is trying to get a liability shield specifically about their failure to warn over the cause of cancer and relationships with glyphosate.

Stacey Vanek Smith (24:33)

So they're getting in trouble for not saying using this product could harm you.

Dina Shanker (24:38)

That's right. They're trying to say we don't have to put it on the label because the EPA said we don't have to put it on the label. If the EPA says we don't have to put it on the label, we don't have to tell anybody about it. It's fine. There's a lot of opposition to them getting this liability shield. There's also, I believe, around 6,60,000 claims still outstanding against Bayer that may or may not be impacted by the decision of the court. Bayer has tried in other ways to get this kind of liability shield. They're currently trying with the farm bill to get it written into that. But this was about the Supreme Court decision. Now, that day at the Supreme Court, who was arguing in favor of Bayer, but Trump administration lawyers, which did not sit well with the Make America healthy again contingent. RFK Jr. Was actually one of the lawyers on the trial that found Monsanto was liable for.

Stacey Vanek Smith (25:32)

So he went after Monsanto.

Dina Shanker (25:33)

Yes, a long time ago. And so he's been anti glyphosate for a very long time. So his followers, the Maha voters, they are fully on board with glyphosate causes cancer and people should be warned about it. We should reduce our use. We should get rid of it. You know, you talk to people, they have different plans for sort of what to do about it. But the Trump administration has come out very pro glyphosate. They have not only submitted an amicus brief in the Supreme Court case and argued on its behalf, Trump also put out an executive order basically saying that glyphosate production is a matter of national security. So that we can have.

Max Shafkin (26:06)

Yeah, we should say the argument that they're making is that this is a really important technology for farming and that it's safe and that if this were not used, it would be very damaging to American agriculture, that we wouldn't make as much food as we make. And I think it has been an incredibly effective herbicide in addition to creating a swirl of concern around danger, harm for agriculture workers first and foremost, but also consumers. And that's, I think, where the Maha movement comes in. Right. These are people who don't want to eat this.

Dina Shanker (26:39)

Well, it's also a lot of regenerative agriculture advocates and there's a lot of talk about, yes, we can't just flip a switch. Right. We can't just get rid of glyphosate tomorrow. That would be very detrimental to food security in this country. But we can phase it out. There are other ways to farm. A lot of weeds are now completely are growing resistant to Roundup anyway, so it's not as effective as it used to be. So there's a lot of people that expected this administration to be more supportive of that position, that glyphosate can be scaled down event maybe we could align with European standards on pesticides. But instead we've seen that this administration is very much aligned with the agricultural industry, which very much wants. Wants these pesticides to stay in use at current levels.

Max Shafkin (27:27)

Okay, so we talked about the Supreme Court. There's this thing going on in the Supreme Court, Trump administration and big agriculture Bear, which owns Monsanto Having an argument. And then there's the Maha movement. And you kind of hinted at this or we mentioned at the top, but these Maha protesters are in front of the Supreme Court or in Washington making their voices heard, which is super interesting, because, first of all, they had been pro Trump. They had helped Donald Trump get elected. It's yet another instance of a sort of part of Trump's coalition seeming to turn against him.

Dina Shanker (28:01)

Yes, definitely. And I should say the turnout was. You were there? Yes, yeah, I was there. It was Monday morning in front of the Supreme Court. I was expecting a bigger turnout, but it was a bipartisan lineup of speakers. Democrats were also speaking as well as, like, Maha leaders and elected Republicans. But the crowd was mostly Maha people. So people that voted for Trump, for Kennedy. Everyone was upset with Trump. Everyone also was, I wanna say, like, making excuses for Kennedy for the fact that this was happening on his watch. He's done everything he can. This is not his department.

Stacey Vanek Smith (28:35)

He's spoken up about this.

Dina Shanker (28:37)

His. He did. When the executive order came out, he originally kind of backed it, saying it is a matter of national security, but then he backtracked on it to keep Roundup around. Yeah, exactly. And, like, he's clearly. He's clearly not happy with it, but it's like, I mean, he's in a tough spot because Trump is his boss. And this is quite antithetical to everything he has ever stood for.

Stacey Vanek Smith (29:00)

So, Dina, you brought us a recording.

Dina Shanker (29:02)

Yes.

Stacey Vanek Smith (29:03)

And what are we about to hear?

Dina Shanker (29:05)

Vani Hari, also known as Food Babe Online. She has been an activist.

Stacey Vanek Smith (29:10)

She's like an influencer.

Dina Shanker (29:11)

She is. I would say she long predates the influencer era. She's a food activist who riles up all kinds of feelings in different kinds of people. She's been doing this for a long time. And she used to be a Democrat, and then she switched to Republican for Maha. Once Kennedy picked that up, I think that was when Maha really started gaining broad support, was because people can see those colors. They can see it in the food that they're being served. And then when she spoke at the rally, she was really making it clear that she is extremely not on Team Trump anymore.

Stacey Vanek Smith (29:49)

Right now, inside that building, Monsanto Bear

Dina Shanker (29:55)

will be arguing for the right to

Stacey Vanek Smith (29:56)

poison us and not be held accountable. Let me say that again.

Dina Shanker (30:01)

They want to give us cancer and get away with it.

Stacey Vanek Smith (30:05)

We are here to make sure that

Dina Shanker (30:07)

does not happen, and we are not

Stacey Vanek Smith (30:09)

going to leave here quietly.

Max Shafkin (30:12)

Wow. The thing that I find so interesting about this, and you're reporting on this, Dina, is that this movement has been around for a very long time. There have been people especially like on the left yelling about Monsanto for, I feel like as long as I've been alive. And none of it has had, I think, much political resonance. It said there's obviously, like, organic foods have grown a lot, but, like, we hadn't seen it break through politically until 2024. And I'm curious why you think that happened.

Dina Shanker (30:43)

So that's such a great question, because that is something that I have asked a lot of people, including elected Democrats, because food issues were Democratic issues. They just never really talked about them is the issue. And that's. I mean, remember, not only did Michelle Obama make school nutrition rules, but she planted an organic garden on the White House lawn. And the pesticide industry, the agricultural, chemical industry, however, whatever euphemism we'd like to use for them. They wrote her a letter and then a public letter writing campaign urging her to use their crop protection tools as they refer to them. And the Obamas didn't even respond to it. And so there's a question of, like, the Democrats have always had this position. Why didn't they push it harder? I think it's been a huge miss for them to not be pushing this harder. I mean, it, it is extreme, like by definition, a kitchen table issue because it's not the food on our kitchen table. And they just haven't. They just have been pushing it here and there. The agricultural industry is also very powerful and very dispersed around the country. Every single state in this country has some kind of agricultural product. And so, you know, the Democrats, I think, had so many opportunities to really own the food issue and never took it.

Max Shafkin (32:06)

During Trump's campaign in 2024, he did this thing where he, he was down. It was Brad Summer. Did I say that right? I can't even remember. And Kamala was on the rise. There's all this energy among Democrats. And Trump, I think, frantically started embracing all sorts of weird causes. And I don't mean weird, but things that were fringe. So he, he embraced crypto. He started talking about, we're gonna, we're gonna uncover if aliens are real. I mean, he literally said that during the campaign.

Stacey Vanek Smith (32:34)

Epstein files.

Max Shafkin (32:35)

Epstein files, Right. In retrospect, big mistake. Big political mistake for him. And Maha, he did all of these things and he embraced the kind of, the sort of the America first movement or whatever that are very against foreign wars. He did all these things, he made all these promises, and in all sorts of ways, it just may be very hard to Be simultaneously like a pro business, pro growth Republican and somebody who's gonna satisfy the concerns of people who really are upset about the power of big agriculture.

Dina Shanker (33:05)

Yeah, I think that's totally right. I also think that they are gonna wanna point to what they would consider their major achievements, and the big one being back to the. That they got a bunch of companies to voluntarily commit to removing food dyes. But I would say, okay, you need to do some rulemaking to actually ban those food dyes, to not just ensure that those companies will drop them, but also that every company that makes food can't use them. But even if they did, that glyphosate is so much more foundational to our food system and to what a lot of people in Maha want, which is that food should be, from their perspective, safe for everyone, or at least safe for them. Because a lot of this comes down to, can you afford to buy the organic food? Because a lot of people I spoke with there only eat organic food. And glyphosate is used so widely, you can't really avoid it.

Stacey Vanek Smith (34:04)

So what happens now with this case?

Dina Shanker (34:06)

We wait. But for now, I know they're trying to push through some kind of liability shield through the farm bill. I'm not sure what. What the latest is on that. That was like, very much in motion while I was in D.C. earlier this week. And I think Bayer has, like a big. They have a lot of different. A multifaceted strategy to. To try to get themselves some kind of federal liability shield. They actually have pushed it through in certain states, but now they want it at a national level.

Max Shafkin (34:35)

I just want to say, before we let Dina go, if you're worried about Maha, the Maha part of Trump's coalition collapsing, the alien coalition, he's thinking about it because one week ago he said at a conservative event, quote, we found many very interesting documents, I must say. And the first releases, this. These are first releases about aliens will begin very soon. So you can go out and see if that phenomenon is correct. So the alien voters are going to be thrown a bone quote very soon.

Stacey Vanek Smith (35:04)

But that's just. I just need to say that's just

Dina Shanker (35:05)

silly because we all know that nothing is going to be definitive.

Max Shafkin (35:09)

I think there are people who are just like, come on. And I understand. Understand it, because if aliens are real, that's a big deal. I mean, aliens are real. Of course.

Dina Shanker (35:18)

Aliens are real.

Max Shafkin (35:20)

Hot.

Stacey Vanek Smith (35:20)

Take a shanker. I love this.

Dina Shanker (35:23)

What do we think? We're the only people, the only living creatures?

Max Shafkin (35:26)

I think we found the first single issue alien voter here. Dina Shanker, thank you for being here there.

Stacey Vanek Smith (35:32)

She's definitely not the first single issue alien voter. There are a lot of single issue alien voters.

Dina Shanker (35:37)

You can't vote vote on it because there's never going to be anything to fix.

Max Shafkin (35:40)

Trump is your guy. He's going to release the documents.

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Mark Gurman (38:04)

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Max Shafkin (38:30)

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Max Shafkin (38:33)

Stacy, we've been here before. We will be here again. It is time for our favorite new segment this week in prediction markets.

Stacey Vanek Smith (38:42)

Okay,

Max Shafkin (38:48)

So the reason I think we're talking about this is because Bloomberg published an analysis a few days ago about bets on polymarket. That's one of the two big prediction market sites along with Kalshi and super interesting. The top line is basically most people on these prediction markets are losing money. And, and then the other thing is the people who are making money are largely high frequency traders, people using bots, essentially professionals who are getting in and out of bets really quickly, disproportionately. That's where most of the profits are.

Stacey Vanek Smith (39:26)

It's interesting because that is a little bit similar to the, the actual like the stock markets in a place where bots have really have a huge edge because they can do things so quickly and move so quickly.

Max Shafkin (39:39)

Yeah. And I think people know this maybe intuitively. But the thing is the way these companies promote these tools, they don't really mention the fact that the successful users are professionals. You're essentially competing with Ken Griffin and other like high frequency trader types. Not literally Citadel, but people who are using similar tactics to the ones that are used in the stock market. It's the same reason why most sort of investment professionals tell you not to day trade even if you are right. And this came up in the research too. Even if your intuition is right, like you bet on a thing that is going to happen, it actually happens, you're going to get a worse price than one of these bots. All right, two other stories. First one that I wanted to just mention very quickly is that this, this question over whether these prediction markets are even legal. A lot of states are pursuing litigation. We saw another lawsuit recently, New York's Attorney General suing Coinbase and Gemini. For what? According to the state of New York are running illegal gambling operations. The companies say no, no, no, totally legal because we are regulated by the CFTC which regulates commodities. The CFTC is suing the state of New York. This is going to continue. The thing about this that I found funny is just like Coinbase is crypto.

Dina Shanker (40:55)

Right.

Stacey Vanek Smith (40:55)

This isn't quite prediction market no, no,

Max Shafkin (40:57)

it is pre prediction markets. Both of these companies have expanded to prediction markets because they're just into whatever the kids bet on.

Stacey Vanek Smith (41:05)

Polymarket about whether Bitcoin's going up.

Max Shafkin (41:08)

No, Coinbase just has a prediction market.

Stacey Vanek Smith (41:10)

And so you can bet on whether or not it's going to snow.

Max Shafkin (41:13)

Yeah, they have done their own prediction market, as has this other crypto thing, Gemini. It's basically like this is the hot category. So they're getting into it. And that I thought was the most surprising thing at all. Like, I didn't even know Coinbase had a prediction market. Neither did you, I guess.

Stacey Vanek Smith (41:28)

I clearly didn't know.

Max Shafkin (41:29)

Okay, last one. People probably saw this, but a US Special Forces sergeant who was involved in the raid in which the United States captured Nicolas Maduro, the former leader of Venezuela, was arrested for betting $33,000 on the outcome of the raid. We had a insider raid trading.

Stacey Vanek Smith (41:52)

Well, I remember when this came out, someone had placed a big bet and nobody knew who, but the timing was really suspicious that because there were. There was an ongoing bet, I think, on polymarket or something about when this might happen, the invasion of Venezuela and I think also the capture of Nicolas Maduro. And I remember. I remember people speculating about who might have had this insider information. Apparently, now we know, at least in part.

Max Shafkin (42:20)

All right, I want you to try to guess how President Trump reacted to the news of this story. When he was asked at the White

Stacey Vanek Smith (42:26)

House by a report, President Trump is a practical man and a big prediction markets guy. I wonder if he asked to split the profits.

Max Shafkin (42:34)

He said, and this is according to a CNBC story that wrote about this quote, I don't know about it, but he was betting that they would get him. Was he betting that they would get him or they wouldn't get him? He's told that he was betting on the raid, and he seemed. Trump seemed to be pleased with that. He said, that's like Pete Rose betting on his own team. Pete Rose being the. The baseball player who was banned for baseball for betting. Many people feel unfairly. I mean, there's a big conversation in baseball. Trump clearly following that because he said, Pete Rose, they kept him out of the hall of Fame because he bet on his own team. Now, if he bid against his team, that would be no good, but he bet on his own team. And then he said, I'll look into it. So I think Trump is like, a little bit okay with this because at least he was betting on the raid.

Stacey Vanek Smith (43:16)

Yeah, I mean, they do say you're always supposed to bet on yourself and now you can do that on prediction markets.

Max Shafkin (43:23)

The whole world unfortunately has become somewhat of a casino, which I think is true and genuinely was surprised.

Stacey Vanek Smith (43:29)

But Trump runs casinos. Does he mean that? Unfortunately, because he's literally in the casino business.

Max Shafkin (43:43)

This show is produced by Jasmine, Jeff T. Green, Stacey Wong and Miles J. Herzhenhorn. Magnus Hendrickson is our supervising producer. Sam Rogich handles engineering. Dave Purcell fact Checks. Special thanks to Jeff Muskus, Julia Rubin and Maria Ling. If you have a minute, please rate and review the show. It will mean a lot to us. And if you have a story that should be our business, email us@everybody's bloomberg.net that's everybody with an slumber.net thank you for listening and we'll see you next week.

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