Everybody's Business – Episode Summary

Episode: The Big Beautiful Bill & The U.S. Enters Its Middle Aged Man Era
Date: July 4, 2025
Hosts: Stacey Vanek Smith & Brad Stone

Overview

This week, Stacey Vanek Smith and Brad Stone (filling in for Max Chafkin) break down the imminent passage of the so-called "Big Beautiful Bill" in Congress—a sweeping and controversial extension of Trump-era tax cuts. The episode explores the bill’s expected impact on business, why the U.S. deficit matters for everyone, and what today’s surprising jobs numbers say about the economy as the nation nears its 249th birthday. They are joined by economist Allison Schrager and also touch on a disturbing trend regarding media freedom, rounding things out with business haikus from listeners.

Main Discussion Points

1. Canada Day and Cross-Border Relations

Segment starts: 02:12

• Stacey recently visited Canada for Canada Day (July 1), reflecting on comparisons to U.S. Independence Day and ongoing U.S.-Canada tensions around trade and Trump’s remark about making Canada the 51st state.
• Canadians she spoke with expressed warmth toward the U.S. but were clear about retaining their independence.
  • Notable moment:
    "People could not have been nicer. They just kept wishing me a happy fourth of July and saying that they liked the US and it was, it was very moving. I love Canada." (04:01 - Stacey Vanek Smith)

2. The "Big Beautiful Bill": Business Impact

Segment starts: 07:20

Key Provisions and Impacts:

• Tax Cuts for Businesses

  • The bill is largely an extension of Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%.
    • Example: "Apple... lowered its tax bill from about $16 billion in 2016... all the way down to $10.4 billion in fiscal 2019." (08:16 - Brad Stone)
    • Includes a revived 20% income deduction for small business owners.
  • History points to strong corporate earnings following the last tax cuts—but also inflation and a ballooning deficit.

• Deficit Concerns

  • The bill is expected to add almost $3.5 trillion to the deficit over a decade (09:48).
  • U.S. debt stands at $36 trillion, with nearly $1 trillion a year going to interest payments.
    • "That's the size of the defense budget. And within the next 10 years, it's estimated that our debt, servicing our debt will be the biggest item in our budget." (10:49 - Stacey Vanek Smith)
  • Rising debt may destabilize the economy, increase interest rates, and make borrowing costlier for everyone—ultimately "hamstrings businesses." (11:50)

• Cuts to Social Programs

  • Major cuts and new work requirements for Medicaid, SNAP, and student loans could push more costs onto businesses whose workers depend on those services.
    • "The companies might be forced to either shrink their payrolls or take on some of those costs themselves, which will be... even less money for them to use for expanding and hiring." (13:31 - Brad Stone & Stacey Vanek Smith)
  • Discussion about the credibility of deficit concerns across both political parties; recognition that neither Republicans nor Democrats seem focused on true fiscal restraint anymore.

• Political Dynamics

  • Trump and Republican leaders have managed to control internal opposition to the bill by offering local carve-outs and strong-arming dissenters.
    • "It's almost, you know, Johnsonian a little bit. And the way he has been able to wield, you know, threats and personality to bring members of his into line." (14:16 - Brad Stone)

3. Economy Checkup: The U.S. in Its "Middle Aged Man Era"

Segment starts: 16:53

Current Jobs Report

• The unemployment rate is at 4.1%, with 147,000 jobs added in June—a "clean bill of health" for the economy. (17:30)
  • "The patient Stacy looks healthy." (17:17 - Brad Stone)
• Most job gains are in local government; private sector gains are less robust but steady.

Interview: Dr. Allison Schrager, Economist

Segment starts: 18:18

• While the economy looks strong on paper, young workers—especially college grads—are facing tough prospects (21:13).
  • "Their employment rates are like recession levels...that might suggest that there are these structural changes that will change the labor market and particularly be hard for young workers." (21:15 - Allison Schrager)
• AI may be eating up entry-level jobs, though evidence is still emerging.
• Discussion of immigration’s impact: the labor force remains flush for now, but hiring may dwindle in the fall as the Biden-era immigration cohort filters into jobs (22:31).
• The apparent "vibe session": high-visibility layoffs in tech/media versus steady but less visible growth in government/healthcare.

Is Stimulus Needed?

• With the Big Beautiful Bill set to deliver fiscal stimulus, Schrager says extending tax cuts is politically inevitable, but that both parties must face "hard truths" for debt reduction: higher taxes and program cuts (25:10).
  • "We're going to have higher taxes and less services if we're really going to get the debt down." (26:49 - Allison Schrager)
• Schrager:
  • "The economy is like a middle aged man who's really smart and well earning... but maybe could lose 10 pounds or maybe even 15 or 20 pounds." (27:04)
  • The U.S. economic patient has lots of potential but needs to "trim some fat"—i.e., manage debt and policy excess.

4. Underrated Story of the Week: The Chilling Effect on U.S. Media

Segment starts: 28:34

• Paramount Global settled a Trump lawsuit over alleged "election interference" by CBS News—paying $16 million as part of a larger deal required for completing its sale to Skydance Media.
  • "This is 60 Minutes. This is the gold standard for news...bending the knee and paying a bounty to a sitting president. And it's appalling." (29:42 - Brad Stone)
• Brad and Stacey debate whether settling is prudent for business survival, given regulatory pressures, versus its implications for democracy.
  • "The individual incentive is to settle... But the collective impact is disastrous." (31:08 - Brad Stone)
  • "The soul of journalism and like the economics of journalism come in clash all the time." (32:02 - Stacey Vanek Smith)

5. Business Haiku & Listener Engagement

Segment starts: 32:10

• Celebrates the growing tradition of listener-submitted haikus about business news.
• Listener Bill Lapp’s haiku:
  "Four trillion debt.
  Wow. How can we afford this much?
  Just ask Musk or Swift." (32:54)
• Hosts encourage more business poetry submissions from listeners for future episodes.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Stacey Vanek Smith (on debt):
  "Our debt is just, it's huge. It's mind blowingly huge. It's $36 trillion. Sometimes these numbers, they get so big you can't even process them." (09:48)

• Brad Stone (on political shift in party priorities):
  "Traditionally, you're so right. The conservatives, at least the old school conservatives, have been the party of financial responsibility... I think the issue we're looking at now is that nobody wants that." (14:42)

• Allison Schrager (on US economic health):
  "The economy is like a middle aged man who's really smart and well earning and has a lot of good years ahead of him, but maybe could lose 10 pounds or maybe even 15 or 20 pounds." (27:04)

• Brad Stone (on media settlement):
  "It's a tragedy...60 Minutes...bending the knee and paying a bounty to a sitting president. And it's appalling, and it sets a terrible precedent." (29:42)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Canada Day & US-Canada Relations: 02:12–04:18
• Big Beautiful Bill—Taxes & Deficit: 07:20–15:51
• Jobs Report & Economic Health (with Allison Schrager): 16:53–28:13
• Underrated Story—Media Freedom & Paramount Settlement: 28:34–32:02
• Listener Haiku Segment: 32:10–33:09

Tone

The episode maintains an approachable, witty tone even as it handles sobering economic and political trends. The hosts balance expertise, skepticism, and a touch of humor, particularly in their analogies and poetry.

Conclusion

This episode of Everybody’s Business provides a detailed, conversational walk-through of the Big Beautiful Bill’s impact on U.S. business, the structural risks posed by skyrocketing deficits, and the surprises in current employment data. The show contextualizes these stories within larger themes of American politics entering its "middle aged era," both economically and democratically, and invites listeners to reflect creatively—with haiku—on these challenges.

Listeners come away with both concrete takeaways and a sense of the underlying tensions shaping American business and society in 2025.