Podcast Summary: Everybody's Business
Episode: The Business Behind the 'Turkey 5'
Date: November 28, 2025
Hosts: Max Chafkin & Stacey Vanek Smith
Guests: Ken Belson (NYT sports business reporter & author), Ann Marie Conti (Wirecutter deputy editor)
Overview
In this Thanksgiving-week episode, Max and Stacey dive into the economic and cultural forces shaping the two central Thanksgiving pastimes in America: shopping and football. They break down the mechanics and business behind Black Friday (aka the "Turkey 5") and take a close look at the NFL's dominance as both a cultural and economic phenomenon. The episode features in-depth discussions with Ann Marie Conti from Wirecutter about Black Friday deal trends (and tariffs!), plus Ken Belson on how football (especially the NFL) became America’s most powerful and watched sport—and what might disrupt its reign.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Thanksgiving Economics, Black Friday, and Retailer Anxiety
- Holiday Economic Impact: Thanksgiving week marks one of the most critical shopping periods; companies can make a quarter to a third of their annual profits over these days.
- Consumer Confidence & Retail Pricing: Despite high tariffs and rising input costs (e.g., spices in the Pumpkin Spice Index), prices haven't always risen as much as expected because companies are stockpiling, hesitant to pass on costs, or simply absorbing losses to protect market share.
- Stacey Vanek Smith (03:58): "Most spices are imported...McCormick said it's going to spend $140 million this year on tariffs. But...the actual index didn't move that much because a lot of places are stockpiling spices...companies are hesitant to pass those prices on to consumers, especially right now."
- Black Friday Trends & The 'Turkey 5': Retailers are launching deals earlier to stimulate demand, with Wirecutter tracking hundreds of active deals and shifting standards due to inflation and fluctuating base prices.
- Ann Marie Conti (26:32): "They call it the Turkey 5. Black Friday through Cyber Monday, five days. Turkey 5 or T5 if you're gonna get fancy."
2. Inside Wirecutter’s Black Friday Operations
- All-Hands-On-Deck: Wirecutter deploys over 100 journalists and a 7-person deals team to scour the marketplace and verify real deals.
- Ann Marie Conti (24:00): "At Wirecutter it is all hands on deck. We have over 100 journalists...and then we look for deals on [Wirecutter-recommended products]."
- Real Pricing vs. Deals: Retailers often raise prices before deal events to make discounts appear larger, creating a complex environment for shoppers looking for true bargains.
- Ann Marie Conti (29:15): "...a lot of these retailers spike prices prior to deal events to make the deals look better. So...early bird shoppers are like punished."
- What People Buy: Many shoppers use Black Friday to buy daily essentials rather than just gifts—dental products, personal care, even dog poop bags.
- Ann Marie Conti (31:26): "People are purchasing for themselves... everyday items. Water picks, teeth whiteners...razors..."
3. The NFL: Economic Juggernaut and National Obsession
- Most-Watched TV Events: In 2024, the top ten most-watched US TV broadcasts were all NFL games.
- Max Chafkin (09:35): "The big debate in September [2024]...was the 11th biggest broadcast. Can you guess what the other 10 biggest broadcasts were? ...The top 10 are all football games."
- Ken Belson on Why Football Rules:
- Scarcity of games (only one a week, a mere 17 per team) drives demand.
- Ken Belson (10:33): "One feature of football is it can really only be played once a week. So the scarcity of games is partly what drives the interest..."
- Over-the-air TV access makes the game widely available, unlike leagues that migrated to cable/streaming.
- The game's compelling mix of strategy, physicality, and spectacle fits TV perfectly and captured the American psyche at the right time with the rise of color television.
- Ken Belson (11:37): "It's the strategy of moving down the field...there's 11 players on each side doing...22 different things...it's kind of like a moving chess game..."
- Scarcity of games (only one a week, a mere 17 per team) drives demand.
4. The Business of NFL Expansion & Broadcast Rights
- '90s TV Money Explosion: The NFL’s transformation came from opening TV bidding to outsiders like Rupert Murdoch’s Fox, igniting a new era of massive sports TV rights fees.
- Ken Belson (12:57): "...In 93, they cut...a landmark deal. The players get full free agency, the owners get a salary cap, and then they get revenue sharing...At that point, not only does the NFL's money accelerate, all the other leagues take note."
- Balancing Scarcity and Expansion: The league is cautious about saturating the market with too many games, but lucrative streaming deals mean more is on the way.
- Ken Belson (16:38): "...they've been carefully slicing the onion...to cut off a few games so they can go on streaming platforms. They know their bread is still buttered by the over-the-air model."
- TV is still 80-85% of the NFL’s viewership, but the league is preparing for generational shifts with streaming.
5. Culture: Taylor Swift Effect, Fan Spending, and Even Trump’s Movie Notes
- Taylor Swift’s NFL Boost: The pop superstar's romance with Travis Kelce brought legions of new (especially international and female) fans to the league.
- Ken Belson (18:46): "...Taylor Swift sent the NFL into a whole other space of cool that it maybe deliberately could never have occupied."
- NFL as National Religion—at a Cost: Fans are shelling out huge sums for tickets and even betting. Corporate influence and rising costs provoke fan ambivalence.
- Fan Interview, Baltimore (07:11): "I've been a season ticket holder for the Dolphins. $1,800 a year..."
- Max Chafkin (08:18): "...football is our national religion. And so...you can't put a price."
- Donald Trump and Media/Culture: Trump is reportedly pressing Hollywood moguls to revive beloved ‘90s action comedies, showing the odd intersection of politics and pop culture.
- Max Chafkin (42:31): "...he’s also trying to...bring back Rush Hour. He likes Rush Hour, like rush hour five."
6. Inflation, Tariffs, and the 2026 Meat Crisis?
- Tariff Impact: Many Black Friday "deals" are less spectacular this year since tariffs and supply chain issues have driven up underlying retail prices.
- Ominous PPI Trends: Producer Price Index data reveals a major spike in wholesale meat costs—21% overall, with processed turkey up 55%, foreshadowing cost pain for Thanksgiving 2026.
- Stacey Vanek Smith (45:01): "...meat compared to last year is 21% more expensive overall...turkeys, processed turkey, 55% more expensive than last year."
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On the Bloomberg Pumpkin Spice Index and tariffs:
- Stacey Vanek Smith (03:58): "McCormick said it's going to spend $140 million this year on tariffs. But the actual index didn't move that much because...companies are hesitant to pass those prices on to consumers."
- On the business of football’s appeal:
- Ken Belson (12:57): "The owners are incentivized because they're not going to worry about losing games. So that's really. The supersizing of the NFL starts at that point..."
- On NFL overreach and the rise of streaming:
- Ken Belson (16:38): "...NFL is very aware of not overdoing it. On the other hand, they have companies like Netflix, Amazon, Google just clamoring for content."
- On Taylor Swift & the NFL:
- Ken Belson (18:46): "Taylor Swift sent the NFL into a whole other space of cool that it maybe deliberately could never have occupied."
- On Black Friday deal weirdness:
- Ann Marie Conti (29:15): "...retailers spike prices prior to deal events to make the deals look better. So...early bird shoppers are like punished."
- On the "Turkey 5":
- Ann Marie Conti (26:32): "They call it the Turkey 5. Black Friday through Cyber Monday, five days. Turkey 5 or T5 if you're gonna get fancy."
Key Timestamps
- 01:27 Intro: Setting up football and shopping for the "Turkey 5"
- 03:19 Pumpkin Spice Index, tariffs & corporate pricing hesitancy
- 06:15 Sports fans on spending & betting; ticket prices insight
- 09:03 NFL financial dominance; TV ratings discussion
- 10:19 – 19:44 Interview with Ken Belson: NFL's economic/cultural power, broadcast deals, streaming, Taylor Swift, and more
- 23:46 Interview with Ann Marie Conti: Wirecutter’s Black Friday game plan, the "Turkey 5", pricing anomalies, and real advice for deal hunting
- 28:53 How tariffs and price spikes are distorting Black Friday deals
- 34:35 Best deals and product picks of 2025
- 39:18 Underrated stories: Trump’s media meddling & rush hour sequels, meat price spikes foreshadowing future inflation
Episode Tone & Takeaways
- Tone: Playful, sharp, and conversational with insightful detours and a genuine passion for both economics and pop culture.
- For Listeners:
- The shopping and sports rituals of Thanksgiving are deeply shaped by shifting economics, corporate anxieties, and broader cultural moments.
- Despite inflation and tariffs, retailers are desperate for shopper attention—meaning there are still real deals if you know where (and when) to look.
- The NFL’s strategy of scarcity, reach, and spectacle has kept it on top, but even the league must adapt as media habits change and cultural narratives evolve.
Listen if you want:
An inside look at Black Friday’s retail madness, a business deep dive into America’s football obsession, and a fun mashup of economics, culture, and deal-finding tips straight from the pros.
Hosts’ & Guests’ Picks & Recommendations
- Best Black Friday Deals: Small countertop appliances (e.g., Vitamix), personal care products, practical everyday purchases.
- NFL Book Plugged: Every Day is Sunday by Ken Belson—history of the NFL becoming an economic/cultural powerhouse.
- Wirecutter Recommendations: Use Black Friday for practical purchases, consult real-time deal trackers, don’t get fooled by fake markdowns.
Podcast is produced by:
Stacey Wong, Magnus Henriksen, Amy Keen, and more.
Contact & Listener Participation:
Listeners invited to submit 2026 predictions, underrated stories, and feedback for future episodes.