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- [00:00]
Ann Marie Conti
The bond market isn't a single market at all. When there are millions of bonds to.
- [00:04]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Choose from, all with different issuers, maturities.
- [00:07]
Ann Marie Conti
And risks, can a passive approach really keep up? Learn more later in the podcast sponsored by Fidelity.
- [00:16]
Anabe Sofa Advertiser
Life gets messy spills, stains and kid chaos. But with anibe, cleaning up is easy. Our sofas are fully machine washable inside and out so you never have to stress about messes again. Made with liquid and stain resistant fabrics that that means fewer stains and more peace of mind. Designed for real life, our sofas feature changeable fabric covers allowing you to refresh your style anytime. Need flexibility? Our modular design lets you rearrange your sofa effortlessly. Perfect for cozy apartments or spacious homes. Plus they're earth friendly and built to last. That's why over 200,000 happy customers have made the switch. Get early access to Black Friday pricing right now, sofas start at just $699. Visit washablesofas.com now and bring home a sofa made for life. That's washablesofas.com offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply. Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.
- [01:28]
Stacey Vanek Smith
This is everybody's business from Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Stacey Vanek Smith.
- [01:31]
Max Shavkin
And I'm Max Shavkin. And Stacy. It's Thanksgiving. It's the week of Thanksgiving. Hopefully by the time you're listening to this, you have survived it and we are ready. We have an episode covering, I'd say the two main Thanksgiving disciplines.
- [01:46]
Stacey Vanek Smith
For your post, turkey, meal day, football and shopping.
- [01:52]
Max Shavkin
We have Annamarie Conti from the Wirecast talking about Black Friday. She's going to explain how they go about writing these guides and also like what people can expect, where the good deals are.
- [02:04]
Stacey Vanek Smith
And we will also be talking with Ken Belson. He is here to talk about his new book about football. Of course, a very fitting subject on a day like today.
- [02:13]
Max Shavkin
And for our underrated story, you know, we've heard how Trump is bringing back tariffs, is kind of maybe canceling cancel culture, whatever. He's also giving notes on buddy comedies.
- [02:27]
Stacey Vanek Smith
For my story, I'm just gonna say this. I hope you enjoyed your turkey.
- [02:32]
Max Shavkin
Oh God.
- [02:33]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Because 2026, your entrees may change not to sound ominous.
- [02:42]
Max Shavkin
Okay, Stacey, not a lot of economic news this week, of course, because of Thanksgiving because you know, I think a lot of offices are sort of half full or full of people who are kind of only half working.
- [02:53]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Everybody is drifting out the door all week, let's be honest.
- [02:57]
Max Shavkin
But we have had some economic news starting with something you wrote about the vaunted Bloomberg Pumpkin Spice Index on this podcast. We follow a lot of indexes and statistics and Stacey Vanek Smith, our own Stacey Vanek Smith has, with the help of Bloomberg economist Michael McDonough, Michael McDonough has created her own.
- [03:19]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yes, Mike McDonough, shout out to. He's the chief economist in charge of products. And, and he is the auteur of the bacon, egg and cheese index. And so I was pestering him for a little while and he very kindly put together the Pumpkin Spice Index, which includes all the ingredients in a pumpkin spice latte, essentially.
- [03:36]
Max Shavkin
So allspice, cinnamon, nutmeg, ginger, cloves, cloves. Did I get em all?
- [03:43]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yeah, Very Good. It's the PS5 as I've come to think of them, the Pumpkin Spice 5, and then also milk, coffee and sugar.
- [03:52]
Max Shavkin
Okay. And so 2025, first ever Bloomberg Pumpkin Spice Index. What did we learn?
- [03:59]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Well, it was very interesting because most spices are imported. We don't really grow spices in this country at all. It's the same problem we have with coffee where it has to grow in the tropics and so we import all of it. So it's all basically subject to tariffs. I talked to spice companies which are absolutely dying. McCormick said it's going to spend $140 million this year on tariffs. But the actual index didn't move that much because a, a lot of places are stockpiling spices because they, you know, Trump campaigned on tariffs and so they knew and spices store quite well, so they have like a little stockpile. And also companies are hesitant to pass those prices on to consumers, especially right now. So the spices have edged up like a tiny bit, but, but not really. And also the index tracks global prices and spices are a very global trade. And so the US Companies are paying the tariffs, but the global spice makers aren't.
- [04:54]
Max Shavkin
Yeah, I mean, and this came up last week when we were talking about the price of Turkey. It's going to come up in the segment to follow with Anna Marie Conte from the Wirecutter, where you're actually seeing some really good Black Friday deals, even though tariffs have been hitting a lot of these product categories. Basically, like the economy is so unsteady that you have a lot of retailers just kind of deciding to eat the cost, whether that's Starbucks or these spice companies or whoever.
- [05:19]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yeah, it's really interesting because consumer confidence numbers came in really low. I think there's a huge worry among companies and economists and all this that people aren't gonna buy as Much. And this is such a crucial season for retailers that if people really hold back and don't buy as much, it was gonna cause a big effect.
- [05:37]
Max Shavkin
Stacey, of course, pumpkin spice shopping, that's all big right now. The other thing that's really big, of.
- [05:45]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Course, is sports and the great coping mechanism of Thanksgiving.
- [05:48]
Anabe Sofa Advertiser
Right.
- [05:49]
Max Shavkin
What can you do to try to tune out your family? You can watch sports or log on to a sports betting app. And you know, we've been covering that.
- [05:57]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yes. Make a little extra gift buying money.
- [06:00]
Max Shavkin
We've been covering that on this podcast. We've got a conversation coming up just how big the NFL is. But we thought it would be kind of cool to just hear from some sports fans about the business of sports and about how sports and their spending kind of relate to one another.
- [06:15]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yes. And this year the Turkey Day game involved the Baltimore Ravens against the Cincinnati Bengals.
- [06:23]
Max Shavkin
And we sent our reporter Charlie Girvin on the Amtrak straight down to Baltimore to spend the day, spend Monday hanging out at sports bar and to talk to people about football and gambling. And here's what he learned. So I'm here right now in Fells Point in Baltimore. This is usually a big spot where fans like to come drink. I am looking to find some fans who can talk to me about how they're feeling about the business of sports and football. What sport do you think you spend the most on?
- [06:56]
Ken Belson
Soccer, baseball, basketball.
- [06:58]
Max Shavkin
I like sports. So any sport really. Basketball.
- [07:01]
Ken Belson
Football is king.
- [07:02]
Max Shavkin
What teams do you support? I'm a Ravens fan.
- [07:04]
Ken Belson
Dolphins, Gators, Magic and Marlins.
- [07:08]
Max Shavkin
How much do you think you spend as a fan?
- [07:11]
Ken Belson
I've been a season ticket holder for the Dolphins. $1,800 a year. Regular season game, 350.
- [07:16]
Stacey Vanek Smith
My first ticket last year to a Ravens game was sitting right at a grand.
- [07:21]
Max Shavkin
I might only spend like 200, 300 a year. And are you a sports bettor?
- [07:25]
Ken Belson
Yeah, I do. My biggest bet would be like $20. My go to is usually $10.
- [07:29]
Max Shavkin
Probably 50 Australian dollars a week. 800 in and lost every single dollar. The way that sports are becoming so corporate, is there a certain point where like in the future you feel like it could just go too far?
- [07:41]
Ken Belson
As a consumer, there's not a whole.
- [07:42]
Max Shavkin
Lot we can do it right. I think it's just a result of end stage capitalism in the United States.
- [07:47]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Instead of having these like multi conglomerates and like ultra billionaires, like owning football teams, if it was just like open stock that the community could own, you would probably have better safety systems. You would have like longer term Fan appreciation.
- [08:03]
Ken Belson
Okay.
- [08:03]
Max Shavkin
Wow.
- [08:04]
Stacey Vanek Smith
There's a big variety of opinions, some.
- [08:07]
Max Shavkin
Really inventive ideas about how to restructure professional sports. I gotta say, $1,000 for a Baltimore.
- [08:16]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Ravens game, That's like a vacation.
- [08:19]
Max Shavkin
Yeah, I guess you're right. I mean, we'll get into this with. With Ken Belson. I mean, you know, there's. I guess there's an argument to be made that, like, football is our national religion. And so. Yeah, I mean, you can't put a price.
- [08:30]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I also would not spend $1,000 to go to a church.
- [08:39]
Max Shavkin
All right, Stacy, I just want to run a couple things by you.
- [08:43]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yes.
- [08:43]
Max Shavkin
All right, so if you look at the 2025 list of the most valuable sports teams, according to Sportico, which tracks these things, okay, three of them are in the NBA, two are in Major League Baseball, two are in European soccer leagues, and all the others. So that's like 13 our NFL teams, like, globally.
- [09:03]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Globally. What teams are worth. Because there are some, like, very valuable soccer teams, very valuable cricket teams.
- [09:09]
Max Shavkin
And then there's one other thing I wanted to mention, which is if you look at the most watched TV broadcast from last year, 2024, that was a big year. You'll remember there was a presidential election and a lot of big stuff happened. Joe Biden dropped out.
- [09:22]
Stacey Vanek Smith
It was an eventful.
- [09:23]
Max Shavkin
There was a big debate. The big debate in September. That was the 11th biggest broadcast in 2024. Can you guess what the other 10 biggest broadcasts were? The top 10?
- [09:35]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I mean, is it the football game? That was streamed on Netflix?
- [09:39]
Max Shavkin
So the top 10 are all football games.
- [09:41]
Ken Belson
All NFL games.
- [09:42]
Max Shavkin
All NFL games, yeah. The Oscars. The Oscars. Big events. Stacey, you've heard of the Oscars?
- [09:48]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I've heard of Oscars.
- [09:50]
Odoo Advertiser
What?
- [09:50]
Max Shavkin
63 on the list drew 20 million viewers last year. It narrowly, narrowly edged out a random Sunday night NFL game in September, which was like, number 13. And I'm really happy because our guest, who we. We just heard is Ken Belson. He's here to talk about this, how this happened. He's the author of Every Day is Sunday. How Jerry Jones, Robert Kraft, and Roger Goodell Turn the NFL into a Cultural and Economic Juggernaut. Ken is a reporter for the New York Times, covering the business of sports. Ken, how are you?
- [10:20]
Ken Belson
Very good. Thanks for having me on.
- [10:22]
Max Shavkin
Ken, how did this happen? It could have been any other sport. It could have been baseball. Why is the NFL the one that became this insane, cultural, economic Goliath?
- [10:34]
Ken Belson
Well, I'm not sure. It could have been baseball. One feature of football is it can really only be played once a week. So the scarcity of games is partly what drives the interest in those games. And there's only 17 regular season games. So even an early season matchup can have massive consequences for later in the season. Early baseball games in April and May, maybe not so much basketball, most people don't pay attention until Christmas. Hockey, kind of the same. So football has always benefited from that scarcity of games. They've also stuck to the over the air strategy when a lot of the other leagues went to cable regional sports networks. And even with MLS going all streaming, NFL has hung onto cbs, Fox, NBC, espn, over the air broadcasts get them the widest audience. And although the total audience has shrun, they are still head and shoulders above everybody else.
- [11:26]
Stacey Vanek Smith
What is it about football that kind of captures the American imagination? Cause you could have fewer baseball games, you could make the season more compact, and that's a much easier game to follow, as is soccer.
- [11:37]
Ken Belson
Well, I mean football in the NFL terms, it came along in mass market ways during the 60s when color television showed up. It's the strategy of moving down the field is something that's compelling to anybody. And even if you're confused, you're trying to figure out what's going on there, there's 11 players on each side doing or 22 different things. And that's kind of like a moving chess game down the field. And I've spoken to fans, not just in America, because we kind of take it for granted, but fans in Europe, for instance, just sort of love this constant strategizing that every play involves. The other is the physicality combined with speed and in some cases ballet. All of those things combined are really interesting. So there's a lot of elements to the game that make it compelling.
- [12:23]
Stacey Vanek Smith
It's like a violent game of chess.
- [12:24]
Ken Belson
Yes, 22 people playing violent chess.
- [12:27]
Max Shavkin
I mean, part of this though, is not about the game itself. It's about the business that underlies the game. And that's what your book is about. If I remember, it starts around 1990 or just before 1990, and you have this kind of explosion of popularity, of interest. Just lay out the kind of thesis of the book. The way that the NFL goes from being popular, but not this kind of global colossus to being where it is today.
- [12:57]
Ken Belson
So it's hard to fathom really. But in the 80s, the NFL was nothing like it is now. They had labor strikes, the TV money was sort of growing, but because of the threat of losing games, CBS and NBC didn't want to put up as much money. And there were many teams that were still losing money. And this lasted all the way to 93, which is where I kind of start the book, because Paul Tagliaboo, who just passed away, had taken over. And he said, we can't exist like this. We'll never be a modern sport unless we essentially make peace with the players. And that happened in a series of lawsuits. And so in 93, they cut what is now a sort of landmark deal. The players get full free agency, the owners get a salary cap, and then they get revenue sharing. And at that point, they're 50, 50 partners. And so now the owners sort of put down their weapons, so to speak. And they're. The owners are incentivized because they're not going to worry about losing games. So that's really. The supersizing of the NFL starts at that point the following year. An owner named Jerry Jones, been in the league for a couple of years. At that point, he's looking at the broadcast contracts coming up, and there's three bidders for three packages. Cbs, NBC and abc. NBC, nfc, afc, and Monday Night Football. That's kind of it. And Jerry says, how do you run a business like that? Why don't we have bidders? We need an auction. So he invites Rupert Murdoch to the table. Rupert had tried twice to get into the NFL. He had the formula in Britain, where he had the English Premier League, helped him launch Sky Sports. And so he needed sports to build up Fox Television. And he told Rupert, you're not going to be a stalking horse. We'll take you seriously, even though you have no sports division, no announcers, no name, no jingle, no anything. And Rupert brings over his lead producer. David Hill comes over from England, does a presentation. He says, here's how I would spice up the NFL. More cameras, more audio.
- [14:52]
Max Shavkin
Dad, those robots.
- [14:53]
Ken Belson
The robots. Jauntier music, More bro feel in the pregame show, not to sort of newscaster feel. And it worked. It was fabulous. They wildly overpaid. And at that point, not only does the NFL's money accelerate, all the other leagues take note that there's a network willing to use sports as a loss leader. And then the TV media money really explodes across the sports landscape.
- [15:18]
Max Shavkin
I want to bring up the thing that comes up the most in like, sort of my football and sports related group chats, which is kind of relevant right now as we're recording this. On November 18th, Thanksgiving's coming up, we're going to have the Thursday NFL games, which I think for many people in The US is like a bigger holiday than Thanksgiving. By the way, Stacey, on that list, top 10 broadcasts, number six and seven were the two Thanksgiving games. Then we're going to get a game on Friday that is Amazon prime game. And the thing that comes up for me, like with my friends is like, come on, like, do we really need like another. The beautiful thing about the NFL is like it's once a week like you said, but. But it's not once a week anymore because now we have Monday Night Football, we have Thursday Night Football, sometimes we have Friday. And it makes me wonder, number one, like how close is the NFL to kind of saturate like create like sort of damaging that, that for scarcity thing that you mentioned earlier. And then the other thing is this is as you said, like a, A largely broadcast sport where we're like, even the games, yes, like some Monday Night Football games. But, but for the most part it's, it's been something that, you know, anyone with a TV can watch. And that has worked out really, really well for the NFL. How are these streaming deals looking for the league?
- [16:38]
Ken Belson
So in 2014, Mark Cuban famously said he thought the NFL was getting piggy, meaning greedy and filling up too many slots on the air. This was probably self interest cause he was an NBA owner at the time. And now it looks ridiculously innocent because we do have many more games. The Friday game, the Netflix games on Christmas Day was formerly an NBA holiday. And so yeah, I think the NFL is very aware of not overdoing it. On the other hand, they have companies like Netflix, Amazon, Google just clamoring for content. And so they've been carefully slicing the onion or garlic or whatever you want to call it, super thin to cut off a few games so they can go on streaming platforms. They know their bread is still buttered by the over the air model. But they also realize, as Roger Goodell says, we have to fish where the fish are. And younger viewers don't have cable connections or rabbit ears to get the over the air signals. So that's where their audience is. I think they're at roughly 80 to 85% still over the air.
- [17:44]
Max Shavkin
How many years are we before TikTok gets a. Either an NFL game or. I'm not even joking, before TikTok airs a pro sports game.
- [17:52]
Ken Belson
Okay, so this is interesting because I do watch the Amazon games on Thursday night, the Amazon prime games. And there's that great feature when you log on. It says pick up the game live or, or watch the catch up version. So if you're tuning in the second quarter. You could basically just watch the first quarter in like four seconds.
- [18:08]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yeah. If you were in traffic or whatever, you don't have to, you know, so.
- [18:11]
Ken Belson
They'Re kind of half there. The technology certainly is there.
- [18:15]
Stacey Vanek Smith
One of the aspects of football that I think had the whole world watching was the romance between Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift.
- [18:24]
Ken Belson
Was that a big deal? I didn't notice.
- [18:26]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yeah, it was a rather big deal. And I'm wondering if that also was able to tap into an audience that the NFL hadn't previously really accessed and if that will have a lasting impact.
- [18:37]
Ken Belson
Yeah, I gotta. It's funny you say that. I mean, people were tracking her plane from Tokyo to see if she'd get back.
- [18:44]
Max Shavkin
Yeah. It was more entertaining than the game itself.
- [18:46]
Ken Belson
Yeah, exactly. I had a friend who called me and said his daughter in Germany, who could care less about the NFL, suddenly cared because Taylor Swift was showing up and she was asking her dad about the rules of the game and she bought like the NFL game pass to watch the games in Germany at whatever one in the morning. Taylor Swift sent the NFL into a whole other space of cool that it maybe deliberately could never have occupied. And sometimes the NFL gets lucky that way. It's the biggest magnet for both good and bad stories. Bad stories resonate more in the NFL than they do in the other leagues. Domestic violence, health and safety, all these issues are bigger in the NFL. At the same time, so are pop culture phenomena, including the halftime show, which, you know, we've been talking about since October.
- [19:34]
Max Shavkin
Ken Belson, thank you so much for being here. Everyone should check out. Ken's book Every Day is How Jerry Jones, Robert Kraft, and Roger Goodell Turned the NFL into a cultural and economic juggernaut. Ken, thank you.
- [19:45]
Ken Belson
Appreciate it. Thanks. Both.
- [19:46]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Thanks, Ken.
- [19:52]
Ann Marie Conti
Short dated or long dated, senior or subordinated holding company or operating company with almost endless options, the bond world is built for action. But benchmark rules mean most passive funds need to own what's big in the index, not what's best in the market. Passive replicates, but active discovers. Just ask Celso Munoz, a portfolio manager at Fidelity.
- [20:15]
Max Shavkin
Passive funds tend to track about $30 trillion worth of bonds. That sounds like a really big, impressive number. But there's another nearly $30 trillion that fall outside of the index. As active managers, we're fishing in a much bigger pond.
- [20:30]
Ann Marie Conti
By going into the market to find mispriced bonds, active investors can use the bond market structure to their advantage. And that can lead to opportunity. Learn more@Bloomberg.com focused insights sponsored by Fidelity.
- [20:52]
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- [21:52]
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- [22:54]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Max, it is one of the biggest economic holidays of the year. Black Friday.
- [23:00]
Max Shavkin
I mean it's Black Friday. Like when you think about it as one of the stupidest economic holidays.
- [23:04]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Absolutely not. 70% of our economy is consumer spending.
- [23:08]
Max Shavkin
Yeah.
- [23:08]
Stacey Vanek Smith
May I remind you?
- [23:10]
Max Shavkin
But I do think it's something we should talk about just because it's a fun window into kind of where we are. And also like just, just as outside of my role as a, you know, professional journalist, like I do kind of just want to get the best deals, you know?
- [23:26]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Well and for companies A lot of them earn like a third of their money or a quarter of their money in this window of time. It is crucially important to the economy and also as people who love deals, like you, Max. And so in that vein, we are very lucky to be joined by Annemarie Conti. She is the deputy editor at Wirecutter and she joins us now. Hi, Ann Marie.
- [23:47]
Ann Marie Conti
I'm so excited to be here.
- [23:48]
Stacey Vanek Smith
So Wirecutter is the New York Times product review site. And I think it is safe to say it is a major destination for Black Friday, right? Like, what is your Black Friday situation?
- [24:01]
Ann Marie Conti
At Wirecutter it is all hands on deck. We have over 100 journalists. Everyone is searching for deals on Wirecutter picks. So what we do is product reviews, right? So we always have hands on product, we are always testing products and then we take that pool of the Wirecutter recommended products and then we look for deals on them. And we have a dedicated deals team. There are seven people on our deals team. And now, I mean there are so many economic holidays now. Like they're practically like covering this every month. And then there's October prime day.
- [24:33]
Stacey Vanek Smith
And.
- [24:33]
Ann Marie Conti
But they have very strict standards about what makes a deal. So because they are tracking every single day of the year, they know what they call street pricing of a product. So if something doesn't meet their deal standards, they're not posting it.
- [24:48]
Max Shavkin
So I'm picturing like, you know, like One of those 80s Cold War movies where you have the big like NORAD command center and then like with a lot of char. Am I wrong? Is it just a room full of people who refreshing Amazon to find the Dyson vacuum cleaner stick one? Like, is it?
- [25:07]
Ann Marie Conti
I wish I could say yes. Like, do you want me to say yes? I would say yes if that's the image that you want in your head. It's mostly a bunch of people on slack, like desperately talking to each other. But we do have. So we have our beat experts and those are the people that really understand these products inside and out. And so they are searching all various sites.
- [25:26]
Stacey Vanek Smith
So you have like your backpack guy and you're like scooter woman. Yeah.
- [25:31]
Ann Marie Conti
Laptops, luggage, everything you can think of. Baby and kid. Really important right now, especially for gifts.
- [25:38]
Stacey Vanek Smith
What I think I really know and what most people use it for are product reviews. When you're looking to buy anything from like a water bottle to a jacket, you really have all these product reviews. A lot of them are just incredibly detailed. There was one very funny quote on Wirecutter that Said you had like a 17,000 word guide for buying a vacuum cleaner which was almost long as Macbeth. So what kinds of products are you reviewing, especially for Black Friday, because you do this all year round. So what does Black Friday look like and what are the. Some of the products you've reviewed?
- [26:12]
Ann Marie Conti
We're looking at everything. We are scanning every guide that we have to really try to give the most breadth of picks and to really find the best deals. And we will do that multiple times a day, every day leading up to, through this whole. They call it the Turkey 5. Marketers call it the Turkey 5.
- [26:32]
Stacey Vanek Smith
What's the Turkey 5?
- [26:33]
Ann Marie Conti
Black Friday through Cyber Monday, five days. Turkey 5 or T5 if you're gonna get fancy.
- [26:39]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Oh my gosh. So you guys are like, what's going on for T5? How are T5 sales?
- [26:44]
Ann Marie Conti
We don't do that, but that is the period. And then for us, the deals are starting earlier and earlier and earlier. So deals started dropping in earnest on Monday. And so we will have a full week of deals at this point. And it really is, it's just a constant. We're checking, double checking, when deals expire, we pull them down, that kind of thing. It is, it's a pretty manual process.
- [27:09]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I imagine that deals evolve a little bit every year. Talk to us about this year. Like, is, have there been any changes to wirecutter Black Friday?
- [27:18]
Ann Marie Conti
When tariffs were announced at the beginning of the year, we started to do a price tracking program just to see what was gonna happen with the tariffs. And so we tracked 40 Wirecutter picks at the beginning of the year and then we continued it through the October fall event. Really. And what we've seen is it took a while for things to increase and like, the tariffs are so scattershot and it's hard to blame everything on tariffs every week. Yes. But at the beginning of the year, things hadn't increased in the way that we thought they would, and now they are starting to increase. So what's happening is that the deals that we are vetting are not best ever deals because prices have increased. So we had to shift our goalposts to understand what is a good deal. Now in this economic environment, you're like.
- [28:08]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Watching inflation play out in real time.
- [28:10]
Ann Marie Conti
Yeah. It's crazy.
- [28:10]
Max Shavkin
Yeah. You, you wrote a really great guide which is on the Wirecutters website, basically about how tariffs are impacting consumer prices. And it showed that like, prices actually went for a lot of products, like went up between Prime Day and the Big Deal days. That's the other Amazon prime day. And so you would think like, oh, you're going to get a great deal, like it's Amazon's big deal days, but really, no, you're paying like two bucks more for an AeroPress or $1 more for this flat duck nightlight, which the wire cutter just loves.
- [28:42]
Ann Marie Conti
And it makes me so happy, I channel all my sadness into this sad light up duck. Well, yeah.
- [28:50]
Stacey Vanek Smith
So how did, what did you see? Like, what kinds of things did tariffs impact?
- [28:54]
Ann Marie Conti
So it's across the board. The other thing that we are seeing, and again, like, is it tariffs? Is it other things? Is it components? So we can't pin everything on the tariffs, but we've had to adjust wire cutter picks as well. You know, we had a Lenovo Chromebook that shot up in price to $600 from I think, I think 500. I think it went up by 100.
- [29:16]
Ken Belson
Wow. And then.
- [29:17]
Ann Marie Conti
But now during Black Friday, it's back down to 350. And so what happens is that a lot of these retailers spike prices prior to deal events to make the deals look better.
- [29:32]
Stacey Vanek Smith
So whatever you do. So like early bird shoppers are like punished. This actually makes me kind of happy because I'm always very late in buying gifts.
- [29:42]
Ann Marie Conti
This is why.
- [29:42]
Stacey Vanek Smith
So now I can just say I'm being economically responsible.
- [29:45]
Ann Marie Conti
But this is why we really want people to be educated consumers. And we know it's a lot of work, which is why we have a seven person team to do the work for you because it's impossible to track everything that you potentially want to purchase.
- [29:57]
Max Shavkin
So in the run up to Black Friday, a bunch of companies raised prices. It looks like tariffs are starting to bite. Now we're actually seeing, because I read your story, I was like, okay, this Black Friday is going to be a nothing burger. Because like it seems like deal days wasn't very good. So. And then I log onto the wirecutter earlier this week and it turns out it's. The headline is early Black Friday deals are usually mediocre, but this year we've already found hundreds of gems. Which I was like, of course the wirecutters found hundreds of gems. But still, it does seem like there's a.
- [30:26]
Ann Marie Conti
We were shocked. Yeah, we were shocked. It's like breaking news. So retailers had a really hard time predicting. Manufacturers had a really hard time predicting. They didn't know what was going to happen. So they had a really hard time planning this year.
- [30:38]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Well, it was changing all the time.
- [30:40]
Max Shavkin
Yeah.
- [30:40]
Ann Marie Conti
And they were bringing a lot of products stateside to hold into warehouses here to Try to avoid the tariffs before they took effect. And so what's happening now is it seems like a lot of them have saved the deals for now because they know that people are going to come out and shop now. And one of my sources told me that they were holding back on advertising spending in order to offset the discounts so that they were able to provide the discounts.
- [31:08]
Stacey Vanek Smith
So how many people look at Wirecutter over the Black Friday weekend? Do you guys know?
- [31:13]
Ann Marie Conti
I wish. I. I don't know, like, lots?
- [31:15]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Hundreds of thousands, probably millions.
- [31:17]
Max Shavkin
Yes.
- [31:18]
Stacey Vanek Smith
It's gotta be millions.
- [31:19]
Ann Marie Conti
It's some of our highest traffic. Yeah.
- [31:21]
Stacey Vanek Smith
So what are, what trends are you seeing from them? Are they looking for different things? Are they asking different questions?
- [31:26]
Ann Marie Conti
So the thing that we're really seeing is that people are purchasing for themselves. Right. A lot of people think Black Friday gifts, and people are purchasing gifts.
- [31:34]
Stacey Vanek Smith
This is the pitfall.
- [31:35]
Ann Marie Conti
But they're also purchasing everyday items. Right. Water picks and teeth whiteners. I don't know why. Everything's dental related. Right. Razors, all of those. Yeah, it is. But yeah, we see a lot of people purchasing things, everyday items. I just bought dog poop bags on sale.
- [31:54]
Stacey Vanek Smith
So you also do like. I think a lot of people use Wirecutter, not necessarily for deals, but for product reviews. Do you ever do those?
- [32:02]
Ann Marie Conti
Yeah.
- [32:02]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Can you, like, list off some of the things that you've reviewed?
- [32:06]
Ann Marie Conti
So one of the stories that I did recently. So Ralph Nader is in touch with me a bunch.
- [32:11]
Stacey Vanek Smith
And the politician.
- [32:12]
Ann Marie Conti
Mm, yeah.
- [32:13]
Max Shavkin
Unsafe at any speed. He's the wirecutters. All totally up his alley.
- [32:17]
Ann Marie Conti
He's a consumer advocate. Yeah.
- [32:19]
Max Shavkin
Okay.
- [32:20]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Okay, I see this connection.
- [32:21]
Ann Marie Conti
So he called us. He called us and he called you? Yeah, he called me. He called, called. I don't know how. Yeah, he got routed to Wirecutter and he was like, I have been using Paper Mate Flair pens since the 70s and my pens are drying out. And it's product obsolescence. And I want you to look into this. And so I did. I looked into all the reasons that Ralph Nader's pens. Well, first we sent him a bunch of pens. We're like, here are our wire cutter picks. You might like these better. And he's like, I hate them all. And I was like, I understand. Be true to yourself. And so then I looked into all the various ways that his pens could be drying out then.
- [33:00]
Stacey Vanek Smith
You did?
- [33:01]
Ann Marie Conti
Yeah, I did. It was a deep dive investigation. He's so lovely. And he thanked me and the whole thing. And then a few months later, I get a note, and it's like, you haven't looked into the pencil erasers yet. And I was like, true, true. He had said he wanted to know why his pencil erasers were going hard. He's like that, you know, then I can't erase with them. And so then I did a deep dive into pencils erasers. And I now understand why pencil erasers go hard. Why so light and heat? Are your pencil erasers worst enemies? So a synthetic rubber eraser feel like.
- [33:36]
Stacey Vanek Smith
A moist, dark environment.
- [33:38]
Ann Marie Conti
Just leave it in a drawer. Just put it in a box. Leave it in the box. The true thing is to use one pencil at a time. I realize that may not be possible for most people. The other thing is that a plastic eraser, what they call plastic erasers, are better and they won't dry out. But generally, most manufacturers put a synthetic rubber eraser and not a plastic eraser on their pencils.
- [34:01]
Max Shavkin
Okay. For those who are not. For those who are not buying pencils for their loved ones, I'm kind of curious, like, there are something like right now already as we record this on Tuesday, November 25th. And I'm sure in the next couple days, it's gonna. This list is gonna grow. There it looks like hundreds of Black Friday deals. I'm kind of curious as you look ahead to this season, like, what you think is like, the best deal so far? You're like, wow. Like, that is. That's. That's impressive. Or. I don't know.
- [34:34]
Ken Belson
I'm.
- [34:34]
Max Shavkin
I'm kind of curious what stands out to you?
- [34:36]
Ann Marie Conti
Traditionally? Small countertop appliances. There's always like, really good deals on those. And the thing that's weird about this year is that the Vitamix always used to go on sale on Black Friday morning at like 3am People are.
- [34:49]
Stacey Vanek Smith
This is like a very powerful blender.
- [34:51]
Ann Marie Conti
People are obsessed with. Yes. I finally, a couple years ago, bought one, and I would never go back to anything else.
- [34:57]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I think it's overrated.
- [34:59]
Ann Marie Conti
Well, and that is your right.
- [35:00]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I've had it for years, and I've used it for years, but it weighs too much.
- [35:03]
Ann Marie Conti
The other thing is that I like the nice, sturdy base. And the other thing is that you have to know how to load it properly. You load it differently. Then you would load a different kind of mixer. There's so much how many load a.
- [35:14]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Blender, I'm telling you.
- [35:17]
Ann Marie Conti
But in past years, that item only went on sale for a couple of hours, and we saw it launch on sale prior to Black Friday. So that I think just shows a little bit of the economic environment right now and the need to incentivize people to really purchase because I think that people are trying to buy groceries right now and not hundreds of dollars worth of blender. Right. People are having to make those decisions.
- [35:44]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Or maybe companies, it sounds like, are maybe a little anxious. Is that, are you getting that sense? Are you seeing the deals? Are there earlier deals this year? More deals?
- [35:53]
Ann Marie Conti
There are more deals earlier, right. So traditionally things were launching on Black Friday and then they backed it up to Thanksgiving and now they've really backed T1. Yeah, right.
- [36:05]
Max Shavkin
As I think of it.
- [36:08]
Ann Marie Conti
And now we're at like T negative 3. Like they've launched on Monday. And so the biggest challenge for us is about stock and are those deals going to remain steady and will they sell out?
- [36:23]
Max Shavkin
We should wrap. But before we do, I just want to recommend everyone should check out her advice column, Ask Wirecutter. Probably send her. Send them some questions.
- [36:31]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I'm not going to do any more questions.
- [36:33]
Max Shavkin
If you've got any other questions about writing implements. Ann Marie Conte Thanks a lot for being here.
- [36:39]
Ann Marie Conti
Oh, this was so much fun.
- [36:47]
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Ken Belson
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- [39:18]
Max Shavkin
Stacy, we're going to hit our underrated stories, but we have a couple of housekeeping notes before we get there.
- [39:23]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yes, we do. And very delightful housekeeping notes. So we are going to be having our first Everybody's business live show. It is a power breakfast.
- [39:33]
Max Shavkin
Power breakfast. December 4th, Midtown Manhattan, Bloomberg headquarters.
- [39:36]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Eight in the morning, be there, be square.
- [39:38]
Max Shavkin
Go to the link in the show notes for details. You have to be a Bloomberg subscriber to come, but you should be a Bloomberg subscriber. So it's a win, win. Also, we are getting ready for our sort of year end show. We have an awesome end of the year show planned. We also have an awesome sort of show where you and I and Brad Stone, our colleague are gonna predict the future and we would like listeners to help us predict the Future.
- [40:06]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yeah, the Magic 8. We're breaking out the Magic 8 ball and going to town.
- [40:12]
Max Shavkin
So yeah, send us your predictions for 2026, be they business, market, culture, any of the stuff we talk about, we'd love it. If you write an email or if you want to conceivably hear your own very own voice.
- [40:26]
Stacey Vanek Smith
If you can send us a voice memo and you can just send it to everybody's net, we would love that.
- [40:33]
Max Shavkin
Stacey, let's talk about the underrated stories.
- [40:34]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Okay.
- [40:36]
Max Shavkin
Are you familiar with the movie Rush Hour?
- [40:40]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Jackie Chan.
- [40:41]
Max Shavkin
Jackie Chan, Chris Tucker, Buddy Cop movie.
- [40:44]
Stacey Vanek Smith
It's like a Cop drama. Okay, I've never seen it.
- [40:47]
Max Shavkin
I think I saw it when it came out in 1998. I don't think it's a particularly well regarded movie. There are a bunch of gags that I think maybe even at the time and certainly in retrospect read as racist. Also, one of the stars, Jackie Chan, has said in a bunch of venues that he hates the movie. Oh, not only did he hate Rush Hour one, he also said he hated Rush Hour two. He said it was worse than Rush Hour one.
- [41:11]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Was he like contractually obligated or did he have to be in it?
- [41:14]
Max Shavkin
No, I think he wanted to make money, but I think, I think he found it schlocky. And it's. It seemed possible that he was reacting to this kind of cascade of, of, of racial jokes that the gag is, it's a black guy and an Asian guy in a buddy cop movie and as you can imagine, directed by Brett Ratner, who was, was canceled for a bunch of allegations that I'm not sure it's worth getting. I wanna say. So it's one of the strangest things that's happening in media right now. You know, Donald Trump, as you're probably aware, has, has taken a like, firm hand on the media policy of this country, going around sort of essentially like threatening news organizations and late night hosts. Late night, yeah. Doing all sorts of stuff aimed at what it feels like is just sort of bringing the media in line with his ideological preferences. It appears, at least according to an article in Semaphore, that he's also trying to preferences for cinema to these media conglomerates. Privately lobbying the Ellisons, who own, who own Paramount and who may buy Warner Brothers Discovery to bring back Rush Hour. He likes Rush Hour, like rush hour five. It would be rush hour four.
- [42:32]
Stacey Vanek Smith
It would be rush hour four dot.
- [42:33]
Max Shavkin
And I think in general Trump would like to like a sort of return to 90s action movies or 80s and 90s action movies. He's a big fan of the movie Bloodsport, Jean Claude Van Dan kickboxing movie. I mean, he just. It's so weird because does he want.
- [42:51]
Stacey Vanek Smith
The original stars or does he want this to be like a new updated version?
- [42:56]
Max Shavkin
I think any Rush Hour fan would probably want the original series, although I'm not sure. Semaphore did point out that both Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker have at various times sent. I don't know if they've quite said nice things about Donald Trump, but they haven't been like openly hostile to Donald Trump, unlike obviously many in Hollywood. So that May be part of it, I don't know. But like, while he's like sort of helping to remake CBS or strongly encouraging the bosses at various networks to be sort of less left wing, he is also trying to bring back Rush Hour.
- [43:32]
Stacey Vanek Smith
All right, let me ask you this. If you could commission a sequel to any movie in the world, what would it be?
- [43:41]
Max Shavkin
Well, I was gonna say Waterworld while we're on terrible 90s movies, but I think there was a sequel to waterworld. I'm not 100% sure.
- [43:49]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Even more Waterworld.
- [43:50]
Max Shavkin
But if I were Donald Trump, I'd be like, Waterworld 2, we gotta bring it back. Kevin Costner put on the days prosthetic gills and run it back.
- [44:01]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yeah.
- [44:01]
Max Shavkin
What about you, Stacey?
- [44:03]
Stacey Vanek Smith
The Piano.
- [44:04]
Max Shavkin
The Piano too.
- [44:05]
Stacey Vanek Smith
The Piano too. I really wanna know what happened. When they moved into town, it seemed like Harvey Keitel and Holly Hunter were gonna be very happy. But I would like. I would like a. I would like a sequel to the Piano.
- [44:20]
Max Shavkin
There are people on the Internet who would very much like a Waterworld 2. Let's see if Piano 2 is a popular suggestion.
- [44:26]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I think that's a less popular Reddit thread would be my guess.
- [44:29]
Max Shavkin
Not seeing that one. Stacey, what is your underrated story?
- [44:32]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Okay, so you know how government data, we didn't have any for a while and now it's been kind of trickling out. So one of the things that just trickled out is something called the producer price index, which is wholesale prices. So I was kind of looking through to see if anything stood out and something stood out that I found extremely ominous. So you know how turkey prices are pretty are down this year except for you, who are somehow paying $150.
- [44:57]
Max Shavkin
Update. It was $129.
- [44:59]
Odoo Advertiser
Oh, okay.
- [45:00]
Max Shavkin
You got a deal in.
- [45:01]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yeah, okay. Okay. So the producer price index. Often prices will rise there first before we will see them on store shelves. Because this is like when, you know, the big supermarkets are importing things. One thing I noticed was that meat prices are going nuts and it makes me really nervous. So meat compared to last year is 21% more expensive overall, which is wild turkeys, processed turkey, 55% more expensive than last year.
- [45:28]
Max Shavkin
So these grocery stores are just eating the price for now? For the most part, yeah.
- [45:32]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Or it hasn't trickled down quite yet because, you know, like these big whatever warehouses will order them and then they'll distribute them to the stores and things like that.
- [45:39]
Ann Marie Conti
So.
- [45:40]
Stacey Vanek Smith
And beef prices up 38% compared to last year wholesale. So I think that we could start to see meat get really expensive and that next Thanksgiving it may be like a tfurkey Thanksgiving.
- [45:54]
Max Shavkin
You're saying if you should be saving.
- [45:56]
Stacey Vanek Smith
For next year's turkey now, Max buy a second turkey. Yes, I think you should have your own strategic turkey reserve and you could probably arbitrage that, you know, sell it for a lot next year we could start a tiny business like a everybody's business turkey business.
- [46:14]
Max Shavkin
There's barely enough room in my fridge for this one turkey. I don't know how I would have a second turkey and I don't know what I would do with it. I love the idea.
- [46:22]
Stacey Vanek Smith
You gotta look for deep freezers on Wirecutter. We can't afford not to. This show is produced by Stacy Wong. Magnus Henriksen is our supervising producer and Amy Keen is our executive producer. Sam Rogich handles the engineering and Dave Purcell fact checks. Sage Bauman heads Bloomberg Podcasts. Special thanks to Jeff Muskus, Julia Rubin, Charlie Gorven and Maria Ling. If you have a minute, please rate and review the show. It means a lot to us. And if you do, Max will create a haiku around your review. And if you have a story that should be our business, email us everybody's bloomberg.net that is everybody's with an slumberg.net 2026 predictions.
- [47:09]
Max Shavkin
Send them and Happy Thanksgiving everybody.
- [47:11]
Stacey Vanek Smith
See you next. Time.
- [47:19]
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Max Shavkin
This podcast is brought to you by FedEx. The new power Move hey, you know those people in your office who are always pulling old school corporate power moves?
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Ken Belson
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Max Shavkin
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Ken Belson
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Max Shavkin
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- [48:07]
Max Shavkin
The new power move. So usually on OK, storytime, our audience will send in their relationship problems and the okay, Storytime squad gives some good advice.
- [48:16]
Ken Belson
Goofily.
- [48:16]
Max Shavkin
But but today we're not giving out our usual advice. Our producer Riley says we're giving something else. So what are we doing today, Riley? Today we're playing a little game. Oh, I love games, says the man. I bought special gifts for you guys from ebay. Each one picked with one of you in mind. Yeah, Dakota, if you want to guess. All right, there is a gift at my feet open that thing. And now it is in my hands. I feel like it's got to be our resident gamer key. This is the rectangle of child hood. It's a portable game console. I used to have this as a kid. This game console I used to play all the time. And you know when your mom came into the room when you were a kid and like you're pretending to sleep, but Riley, what a thoughtful gift. Yeah, thank you so much. You're crushing it. But we have one more gift. Let's open it. Oh, camera. An old timey camera. That's right. Classic. This is awesome because you know how I love to take pictures of my travels. Yeah, you're always somewhere. Whether it's in Kyrgyzstan with some nomads or just New York, you know, with a nice little piece of trash or a rat little nice picture taking pictures with the birds. So Riley, you got all this from eBay, dude, eBay. It was really fun finding it with you guys. Like I had very specific things for each one of you. Yeah, yeah, it was all there. Thanks Riley. And thank you. Ebay. And guys shop ebay for millions of fine lines, each with a story. EBay things people love. Running my small business was like playing basketball. Five on one and I was the one. Now QuickBooks gives me access to a team of AI agents and trusted experts for the assists. I need nothing but net outdoit with intuit.
- [49:51]
Ann Marie Conti
QuickBooks feature availability varies by production.