Podcast Summary: Everybody's Business

Episode: Trump's 4D Chess, Your North Korean Coworker, and Hard Celsius
Hosts: Max Chafkin & Stacey Vanek Smith
Date: July 31, 2025

Main Theme

This episode explores the concept of “secrets” in business and economics—from the true state of the US economy and Trump’s trade maneuverings, to the bizarre but real phenomenon of North Korean IT workers secretly working for US companies, and (in lighter news) the accidental crossover between energy drinks and hard seltzer.

Key Segments and Insights

1. Is the Economy Secretly Good or Bad?

[01:16–07:02]

• Overview: US economic growth appears surprisingly strong, but public sentiment is mixed. The hosts hit the streets of NYC for personal “economic indicators” and bring in Harvard economist Ken Rogoff for a deeper dive on GDP figures.
• Notable Street Quotes:
  • “My personal economic indicator is…if the total at the grocery store makes me feel like there’s been a mistake.” (Stacey, [04:55])
  • “We’ve been Target, just two bags of groceries, nothing fancy.” “$200 bucks.” ([04:16])
• Consumer Confidence:
  • Numbers are up, but people’s lived experiences differ widely—from job insecurity to complaints about the rising cost of living in NYC.
  • The “restroom index,” i.e., cleanliness of public restrooms, is jokingly suggested as an economic health marker.

2. Ken Rogoff: Is Trump Playing 4D Chess with the Economy?

[06:34–17:13]

• GDP Analysis:
  • The headline 3% growth is partly due to reduced imports following tariffs, and may not accurately reflect underlying domestic demand.
  • Business investment is soft due to uncertainty over tariffs, while the consumer remains surprisingly resilient.
  • “You really need to average the first two quarters to sort of get a feel of what’s going on.” (Ken Rogoff, [07:59])
• Tariff Chaos:
  • Trump’s tariff policies are described as “mercurial” but sometimes pragmatic.
  • “He’s a wild man, but he’s also a pragmatist…when he sees something not working, he changes it, which has been an increasingly rare thing in Washington.” (Ken Rogoff, [09:28])
  • US is a uniquely “closed” and resilient economy, less dependent on foreign imports than many peers, but long-term risks remain.
• 4D Chess Analogy:
  • Rogoff likens Trump to a “coffee house chess player”: “They typically are better than you think, but not as good as they think…very good at beating weak players, but have trouble when they get to playing strong players.” ([16:18])
• Business Investment:
  • Persistent policy uncertainty is causing firms to hold back, a behavior mirrored in economic theory (Ben Bernanke’s thesis).
  • “Why build a new factory? You don’t know what the tariff’s going to be.” (Ken Rogoff, [14:08])
  • Stock market highs may be misleading, boosted more by AI-fueled staff cuts than actual economic expansion.

3. Your North Korean Coworker: The Wild Remote Worker Scheme

Guest: Evan Ratliff, journalist
[20:19–32:34]

• Context: North Korea has deployed thousands of trained IT professionals to work remotely—incognito—for US and Western companies, with their salaries funneled back to fund the regime’s weapons programs.
• Operation Details:
  • North Koreans use “laptop farmers” in the US to receive work hardware and spoof US locations via remote software.
  • “She [Christina Chapman] was being prosecuted...people that keep laptops in their houses…and that the North Korean workers can use those laptops remotely and work American jobs.” (Evan Ratliff, [24:05])
  • Major companies—including Google, Nvidia, Amazon, NBCUniversal, Nike—unknowingly employed these workers ([28:47]).
• How They Get Away With It:
  • Lax checks by third-party staffing firms mean little to no verification.
  • “It’s hard to find good IT workers…so you go on the open market…and find who you can find.” (Evan Ratliff, [30:25])
• Risk & Reactions:
  • Companies are most worried about embarrassment; exfiltration of sensitive data is a looming risk.
  • “Most of the workers raise money for the North Korean government simply by striving to do average work and collect their pay.” (Evan Ratliff, [22:27])
  • The phenomenon raises philosophical questions about the nature of remote work and global labor markets.

4. The Underrated Story: Hard Seltzer or…Energy Drink?

[33:45–36:44]

• Story: Cans of High Noon (a spiked seltzer) were accidentally labeled and sold as Celsius (a popular energy drink), leading some to start their day with vodka unknowingly.
  • “Assumedly some people cracked open a nice can of Celsius…hoping to maybe focus, get ready for the day, and instead…were transported to relaxation town.” (Max, [35:03])
• Takeaway: Highlights the chaos possible in consumable goods supply chains and the accidental mixing of two popular categories—hard seltzer and energy drinks.

5. Listener Mail & Closing Thoughts

[36:44–38:11]

• Listener Tim T. shares an anecdote about missing out on Capital One’s marketed rates due to fine-print requirements, sparking a quick reflection on financial transparency.
• The hosts invite listeners to share their own “personal economic indicators,” highlighting the fun and relatability of unconventional economic data points.

Notable Quotes

• Ken Rogoff on Trump:

  • “He’s a wild man, but he’s also a pragmatist…when he sees something not working, he changes it.” ([09:28])
  • "We have this phrase called ‘coffee house chess players’...I sort of do feel that describes a lot of Trump’s analysis and philosophy.” ([16:18])

• Evan Ratliff on North Korean IT Workers:

  • “They're just doing jobs. They're just doing remote jobs in the US and getting US paychecks to raise money for the North Korean government.” ([22:27])
  • “The company’s biggest problem is embarrassment, which is something I encountered when I said that I was going to out many of these companies…” ([28:33])

• On Consumer Reality:

  • “My personal economic indicator is…if the total at the grocery store makes me feel like there’s been a mistake.” (Stacey, [04:55])
  • “When businesses aren’t growing…that means the economy’s gonna stop expanding.” (Stacey, [14:50])

Timestamps at a Glance

• 01:16 – The episode’s "secret" theme, US economic data look good
• 03:07–05:51 – On-the-street interviews: real Americans’ economic indicators
• 06:34–17:13 – Ken Rogoff on GDP, tariffs, Trump’s economic strategy
• 20:19–32:34 – Evan Ratliff on North Korean remote work scheme, security risks
• 33:54–36:44 – The High Noon/Celsius recall: seltzer meets energy drink
• 36:44–38:11 – Listener mail: Capital One savings, personal economic indicators invite

Tone & Takeaways

• The episode balances smart economic analysis with humor, real-world examples, and illuminating reporting on unlikely business secrets.
• Both hosts maintain an approachable, witty, and slightly irreverent tone while collaborating with experts (Ken Rogoff and Evan Ratliff) to dig beneath the headlines.
• Memorable moments include the “restroom index” as an economic measure, Trump as a “coffeehouse chess player,” and the jaw-dropping reality of an American IT workforce quietly funding North Korean arms.

Recommended For:
Listeners interested in understanding the overlap between economics, geopolitics, and real-life business weirdness—brought to life with clever analogies and original reporting.