Everybody's Business — July 18, 2025

Episode: Trump's Fed Fight, Staycations, and Etsy Witches
Hosts: Max Chafkin & Stacey Vanek Smith
Guests:

• Martha Gimbel (Executive Director, Budget Lab at Yale)
• Amanda Mull (Columnist, Bloomberg Businessweek)

Overview

In this episode, Max and Stacey unpack the economic anxieties of a travel-weary summer — from inflation’s impact on vacation plans and a brewing presidential showdown with the Federal Reserve, to the unlikely boom in mystical “metaphysical services” on Etsy. The show blends serious macroeconomic insight with sharp cultural commentary, featuring expert perspectives from economist Martha Gimbel and consumer trends journalist Amanda Mull.

Key Discussion Points

1. Summer Theme: “Should I Stay or Should I Go?”

Timestamp: 01:18–02:16

• Stacey frames the episode’s theme as being torn between staying put or venturing out — a dilemma reflected in recent economic data and current events.
• Max: “You got President Trump pondering whether Jerome Powell should stay or go. We also have people potentially going just because it's travel season.” (01:24)
• This encapsulates both literal vacation planning and the metaphorical question of who should lead key economic institutions.

2. Inflation, Tariffs, and the Cost of Living

Timestamp: 02:16–05:31

• Stacey and Max discuss the latest inflation numbers, noting price hikes in tariff-sensitive items (like furniture and toys), as well as domestic goods (like beef).
  • Max: “This is vindication for you, Stacey Vanek Smith, and for anyone else who's been saying…that the tariffs were going to lead to this.” (02:16)
• Personal anecdotes highlight how rising prices for rentals and other travel staples affect Americans’ summer plans.
• Stacey shares interviews from New York’s Union Square with travelers adjusting their plans based on costs, with one local noting, “[All the travel I've done recently] has been a little bit more local. Like a beach day with friends that's like a two hour drive away and not like a plane ride away.” (04:13-04:22)

3. Staycations and New York Summer (with a Mayor Adams cameo)

Timestamp: 05:31–06:42

• Max touts the virtues of staying in New York, quipping: “This is the greatest city in the world. Why would you travel someplace else?” (05:22)
• A clip from Mayor Eric Adams spins New York as a “great product” for tourists, cautiously optimistic about recovery despite headwinds (tariffs, political uncertainty).
  • Mayor Adams: “This is still a good product. You know, people want to come.” (06:17)

4. Trump vs. Jerome Powell: Unprecedented Federal Reserve Drama

Timestamp: 07:02–20:15

The Headlines and Whiplash

• Stacey outlines Trump’s contradictory public statements about firing (or not firing) Fed Chair Jerome Powell—resulting in wild market swings.
  • Stacey: “An hour later…a headline that said, trump now says firing Powell unlikely—whipsawing markets.” (07:20)

Why This Matters: Expert Commentary by Martha Gimbel

• Martha explains the political appeal of low interest rates but underscores why the Fed’s independence is crucial to long-term stability.
  • Martha: “If it were just up to politicians, generally, what you see is they try to keep interest rates low because people like that, and then inflation can get out of control… That is why we have an independent central bank.” (10:27)
• Clear distinction is drawn between minor rate cuts (debated among economists) and the dramatic cuts advocated by Trump, which no serious economist supports.

Should the Fed Be Less Independent?

• Max and Stacey probe whether the Fed should be more responsive to popular concerns or held more accountable for its decisions.
  • Martha: “The Fed is not there to address inequality. That's for a couple of reasons. One is they work best when they have really clear mandates.” (13:21)
  • She adds, “You need Congress, you need fiscal policy to address a lot of these other issues. And I think part of the reason why you've seen this focus on the Fed is, is because Congress is so dysfunctional.” (14:11)

Consequences if Powell Were Fired

• Martha notes that firing Powell would likely backfire, causing higher—not lower—interest rates due to increased market uncertainty.
  • Martha: “It would actually almost certainly be counterproductive… what you would probably end up with is higher interest rates.” (17:34)
• Historical precedent: In the 1970s, politicized rate cuts led to runaway inflation.
  • Martha: "[Arthur Burns] was taking calls from Nixon who was saying, you know, don't do this, you need to…keep money cheap basically. And so I really do worry that we could end up in a situation like that again." (19:50)

5. Travel Trends: Staycations, Declining International Visitors, and the Pain of Flying

Timestamp: 23:02–33:03

The State of US Tourism

• International tourism to the US remains down from pre-pandemic levels, with further softness expected in 2025.
  • Amanda Mull: “We're still only about at 80% of the international tourist arrivals that we were at in 2019…for it to continue to decline is bad. It means a lot of bad things for US Tourism jobs. It means bad things for New York City, where we all are.” (25:01–25:38)
• Canadian tourism in particular has dropped by roughly 20% (as of April data), posing challenges for border towns.

Why Is The Recovery So Slow?

• After 9/11, international air travel rebounded in about 4 years; COVID’s disruptions have lasted longer, reshaping consumer habits.
  • Max: “It's taken us longer now…we are further out from COVID than we were from 9/11, which seems interesting and different.” (29:46)

The Business of Flying Now Sucks (for Most)

• Amanda: “For most people, I think it is worse. I think that travel has gotten a little bit more like riding the bus for a lot of people. For most people, for everybody in the back of the plane…temperatures run a little bit hotter. As far as people's behavior.” (30:45–31:09)
• Facilities and perks for premium travelers have improved, but for the average flyer, conditions and service have decreased.

Attractions Are Raising Prices

• As volume falls, destinations like the Empire State Building raise ticket prices to compensate for lost revenue.
• Amanda: “Those types of things I think are sort of ripe for inflation, ripe for price increases to make up for volume decreases.” (32:06)

6. Underrated Story: “Etsy Witches” and the Metaphysical Economy

Timestamp: 34:10–38:33

• Max highlights a Wall Street Journal trend piece: digital witches on Etsy sell spells for everything from job searches to sports victories.
  • Max: “This is a story about how witchcraft and other sort of magical spells are super hot on Etsy…I went on Etsy and there are just like, it seems like thousands of magical spells for sale.” (34:20, 34:54)
• This runs afoul of Etsy’s own ban on “metaphysical services,” but, as Amanda observes, it’s a digital black market with real consumer engagement.
  • Amanda: “Tumblr witches that you could ask for a spell or you could like PayPal them or Venmo them for a spell have been going for a while and I suspect a lot of these witch entrepreneurs have just moved their services over to Etsy…” (37:32–38:03)
• The hosts link this trend to a wider boom in astrology and mystical services as an outlet for uncertainty.
  • Stacey: “I do also feel like there's this moment happening, like kind of like a mystical moment. I just feel like astrology, witchcraft, like this stuff is kind of coming to the fore.” (38:03)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Fed Drama:
  • “It's like a episode of The Apprentice. It's like he's going to fire him one minute, then he's going to keep him the next minute and, and on and on.” — Max Chafkin (07:13)
• On the risks of politicizing the Fed:
  • “We now have decades of experience that tells us that a group of unelected bureaucrats looking at charts and doing their thing is actually the thing that gets you the best economic outcome. And that is very frustrating. And I'm very happy that I'm the person that doesn't have to sell that concept to voters.” — Martha Gimbel (15:54)
• On the cost of air travel:
  • “Travel has gotten a little bit more like riding the bus for a lot of people. For most people, for everybody in the back of the plane, temperatures run a little bit hotter.” — Amanda Mull (30:49–31:09)
• On the Etsy Witch Market:
  • “Do you want to mess with the witches and say that they can't sell their spells? Because that does not seem like a good idea.” — Stacey Vanek Smith (35:37)
  • “I feel like if Etsy's gonna crack down on anything, that's where they should start. But then there are also these kind of general ones, like here's a good one, 270 bucks. Kind of pricey, but. Call to all 72 demons of the Gotia for a custom spell.” — Max Chafkin (36:44)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:18 — Theme: Should I Stay or Should I Go?
• 02:16-05:31 — Inflation, tariffs, and people’s summer plans
• 07:02-20:15 — Trump vs. Powell and the Fed’s independence (with Martha Gimbel)
• 23:02-33:03 — International travel trends & state of the tourism industry (with Amanda Mull)
• 34:10-38:33 — The rise of the “Etsy Witches” market

Tone

• Witty, sharp, conversational, and welcoming to economic novices
• Manages nuanced policy issues with clarity and humor
• Interweaves personal stories, data, and cultural context

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode delivers a comprehensive and lively snapshot of the intersections between economic policy, travel realities, and surprising corners of the digital economy. Whether you’re feeling the pinch on your summer plans or wondering why monetary policy drama matters for your mortgage, this show offers relatable context, expert analysis, and just enough weirdness (hello, Etsy witches) to keep you hooked.