Podcast Summary: Everybody’s Business – "Will 2026 be the Year of the 'Hairy 12'?"

Podcast: Everybody’s Business
Episode: Will 2026 be the Year of the "Hairy 12"?
Date: January 2, 2026
Hosts: Max Chafkin, Stacey Vanek Smith
Guest: Brad Stone (Editor, Bloomberg Businessweek)

Overview

In this lively new year’s episode, Max Chafkin, Stacey Vanek Smith, and special guest Brad Stone dive into Bloomberg Businessweek’s “Year Ahead” issue, unpacking the economic, tech, and political narratives likely to shape 2026. The hosts debate whether the AI market is on the cusp of a bubble burst, discuss the far-reaching implications of Trump’s presidency, dissect trends in economic indicators like consumer spending and hiring, and gamify their forecasts with feud predictions and headline Mad Libs. The episode wraps with a lightning round of 2026 predictions and listener-submitted forecasts—and, as always, the show delivers incisive, entertaining, and often irreverent business analysis.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. AI Investment: Bubble or Boom?

• AI’s Unprecedented Growth:

  • Brad Stone highlights the wild optimism and soaring investment in AI, noting infrastructure spending jumped from $15B (2024) to $125B (2025). Nvidia’s market cap almost doubled to $4.3T. (02:52)

    “2025 was a gangbusters year. UBS estimated that spending on infrastructure...went from 15 billion in ‘24 to 125 billion…Nvidia’s market cap nearly doubled to 4.3 trillion.” – Brad Stone (02:52)

  • Pattern matches prior booms (dotcom, unicorn) but with heavier stakes due to economy’s dependency on AI-led growth.

    “We’re so dependent right now on AI growth continuing for our whole economy to grow.” – Stacey Vanek Smith (04:17)

• Are We in a Bubble?

  • Max suggests the bubble may have started to burst, pointing to Oracle's stock plummet and early signs of cooling. (04:59)

    “I think the bubble maybe already has burst…Oracle…went down like 12% one day and then 5% another day…” – Max Chafkin (04:59)

  • Brad agrees many investments are “FOMO-induced” and notes the outcome will echo the early 2000s: some carnage, but real innovation survives. (05:43)
  • The true test: If consumer adoption and business ROI don’t justify spending, 2026 could see deeper cracks.

    “If that day doesn’t come in 2026, I think that starts to maybe create problems.” – Max Chafkin (07:00)

• Tunnel Vision Concern:

  • Heavy focus on AI draws resources and interest from other sectors; little remains to cushion the economy if the AI thesis fails.

    “There is so much investor interest and energy being focused into one place.” – Brad Stone (12:45)

2. Politics: The Era of “Imperial Presidency”

• Trump’s Power Plays:

  • Brad describes Trump’s presidency as “norm-busting, power expanding...imperial,” framing 2026 as pivotal for checks and balances. (07:39)

    “To me, the norm-busting, power expanding, kind of guardrail, flagrantly disregarding imperial presidency of Donald Trump is the big story for next year.” – Brad Stone (07:39)

  • Max predicts 2026 may bring pushback from corporations and Republicans; cites Costco’s legal battle over Trump tariffs as a noteworthy sign of resistance, especially compared to Amazon’s retreat. (09:26)

    “Costco has sued the Trump administration trying to recoup tariff money…maybe this is something that is the beginning of a greater pushback.” – Max Chafkin (10:02)

  • Brad counters that the White House still commands corporate compliance, except in unique cases like Costco. (10:51)

• Supreme Court as a Check?

  • Upcoming rulings on tariffs could curtail or legitimize presidential overreach.

3. State of the Economy: Recession Watch

• Fragile Optimism:

  • Stacey relays economist Mark Zandi’s cautious optimism—recession is not the base case for 2026, but hinges on nothing going wrong: “Nothing else can go wrong. That’s how tenuous things are.” (14:01)
  • Risks include faltering AI investment and a consumer spending dip, especially as the wealthiest 10% now account for half of all US spending. (14:34)

    “If something happens to the wealthiest 10%…they decide to save or…pull back, that is going to be really devastating for our economy.” – Stacey Vanek Smith (14:34)

  • Hiring is at its lowest in decades, reflecting economic “pause” and uncertainty about tariffs/AI ROI. (16:31)

• Job Market Stagnation:

  • Companies may be delaying hiring, waiting for AI efficiency or clarity on tariffs.

    “What a terrible time to start hiring en masse if that is the expectation that you have set.” – Brad Stone (17:31)

4. Feuds of the Year: Recap & Predictions

• 2025 Feuds Recap:

  • Max recaps his “feud list”—noting wins like Dogman vs. Paddington and Sam Altman vs. Elon Musk. (20:16)
  • Brad counters that Elon “has so many ways to win,” citing SpaceX and Tesla synergies. (21:46)

• 2026 Feud Predictions:

  • Nvidia vs. Huawei: US-China tech rivalry intensifies as Chinese chipmakers close the gap; political and tech competition expected. (23:00)
  • Trump vs. the Federal Reserve: Uncertain as Trump’s nominee may turn adversarial post-appointment; history suggests ongoing friction. (26:09)

    “I think the prediction is Trump versus whoever he nominated…it's gonna be one True Social insult after another…” – Max Chafkin (28:18)

5. Headline Mad Libs: The “Hairy 12”

• Stacey runs a game predicting 2026 headlines with the hosts creating Mad Lib-style headlines. A mock headline dubs “Magnificent 7? More like Hairy 12,” humorously suggesting snack and candy companies like Hershey and Crumble could lead the market after an AI collapse. (29:48)

  “Magnificent 7? More like Hairy 12. A new crop of companies are the stock market's darlings, including Hershey's and Crumble.” – Stacey Vanek Smith (30:57)

  • The segment satirizes the financial press’s penchant for catchy nicknames and the unpredictability of next-generation market leaders.

6. Lightning Round Predictions (35:06)

• Rapid-fire 2026 forecasts on politics, pop culture, and business trends. Highlights:

  • Political movement: “Climate absolutists” – Brad; “Maha” – Stacey; “Ludditism/digital abstinence” – Max
  • Music: “AI-generated music” – Brad; “Country” – Stacey
  • Movies: “Spider Man 4” grosses highest – Brad; “Avengers” – Max
  • World Cup winner: “Brazil” – Brad; “Germany” – Stacey; “USA” – Max
  • Hot new office trend: “Napping under the desk” – Brad; “FaceTime is back” – Stacey; “Offices with doors” – Max

• Notable/Lighthearted Qs:

  • “Timothée Chalamet unmasked as secret rapper? Yes!” (37:03)
  • New AI trend? “AI engineered to be people's friends/companions” – Stacey; “Restrictions on usage—screen time for AI”—Brad; “Consumer AI-detection tools”—Max

7. Listener Predictions (40:33)

• Listener-submitted and street interviews predict:

  • College loses appeal
  • Resurgence of physical media (books, vinyl)
  • Substack as an economic engine
  • “Fiber makes a comeback” in nutrition
  • Travis Kelce calls off engagement with Taylor Swift (hosts disagree!)

  “2026 is going to be the year of a major public, cultural, and maybe even political backlash against AI. We're gonna end up with all the bars in Tatooine having no droids policy by the end of 2026.” – Listener Bren (41:32)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Bubbles and Risk:

  “There’s so much investor interest and energy being focused into one place.” – Brad Stone (12:45)

• AI ROI Skepticism:

  “It reminds me of…South Park...there are these little gnomes...their business plan was: step 1, steal underwear. Step 2, question mark, question mark, question mark. Step 3, millions of dollars. I sort of feel like that is where AI is.” – Stacey Vanek Smith (11:33)

• On the Economy’s Fragility:

  “We’re right on the precipice. And again, everything has to stick to script for us to avoid [a recession].” – Stacey Vanek Smith citing Mark Zandi (14:27)

• Mad Libs Headline Fun:

  “Magnificent 7. More like Harry 12...Including Hershey's and Crumble.” – Stacey Vanek Smith (30:57)

• 2026 Feuds Prediction:

  “Trump versus whoever he nominated...it’s gonna be one True Social insult after another.” – Max Chafkin (28:18)

• Listener AI Backlash Prediction:

  “We’re gonna end up with all the bars in Tatooine having no droids policy by the end of 2026.” – Listener Bren (41:32)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Opening, New Year set-up: (01:11–02:13)
• AI Bubble Discussion: (02:13–07:35)
• Trump and the “Imperial Presidency”: (07:39–11:27)
• Economic Indicators & Recession Watch: (13:20–17:31)
• Feud Analysis & Predictions: (19:56–28:31)
• Headline Mad Libs/“Hairy 12” Segment: (29:29–32:44)
• Lightning Round (rapid-fire predictions): (34:57–39:43)
• Listener Predictions Montage: (40:33–43:47)
• Wrap-up & Credits: (43:49–44:26)

Tone & Style

Conversational, playful, and sharp. The hosts blend analytical acumen with irreverence (e.g., Mad Libs headlines, rapid-fire feuds), allowing both business insiders and general listeners to stay engaged and entertained while digesting serious market and political analysis.

Bottom Line:
This episode of Everybody’s Business offers a smart, witty, and thorough primer on the risks and narratives that could define 2026, from the fate of the “AI bubble” and the power struggles of American institutions to emerging pop culture phenomena and office trends. It’s a must-listen for anyone tracking business, tech, or politics—and a reminder that in business as in Mad Libs, the future is never fully predictable.