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- [00:00]
Okta Advertiser
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- [00:32]
Wise / LG Gram Advertiser
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- [01:11]
Max Chafkin
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News. This is everybody's business from Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Max Chavkin.
- [01:25]
Stacey Vanek Smith
And I'm Stacey Vanek Smith. And Max, here we are. 2026 it is happened.
- [01:31]
Max Chafkin
Happy New Year, Stacy.
- [01:32]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Happy New Year. 2025' done with it.
- [01:36]
Max Chafkin
Yep. Today on the show, we're gonna look ahead to that new year. The new issue of Business Week is all about that. Yeah.
- [01:42]
Stacey Vanek Smith
And we'll be looking at some of the biggest stories that are going to be unfolding in 2026. Some of the economic indicators we'll be watching. And Max, you will be previewing some potential feuds.
- [01:52]
Max Chafkin
Oh, feuds. I love feuds. And you have promised us headline Mad list. I have. I don't know what those words mean, but we will finish things off with a lightning round of that and some predictions from listeners and friends.
- [02:04]
Stacey Vanek Smith
And we are very lucky to have Brad stone, editor of BusinessWeek, here to join us and talk through what we can expect in the year ahead. Hey, Brad.
- [02:12]
Brad Stone
Hi guys. Happy New Year.
- [02:13]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Happy New Year. So okay, Brad, there's a whole issue of Business Week that just came out, all about what we can expect in 2026. You have been looking over the lands in this way. So what are some of the big stories that you see unfolding this year?
- [02:33]
Brad Stone
Right. Well, I'm gonna highlight two big ones. The first we really put on the COVID of the January issue. There's a big bubble on the COVID So it doesn't take too much imagination to know what that refers to. But really the story.
- [02:49]
Max Chafkin
So what does it refer to?
- [02:52]
Brad Stone
It refers to the explosion of investment, optimism and bubbly exuberance around AI. 2025 was a gangbusters year. UBS estimated that spending on infrastructure, so data centers and chips and the like went from 15 billion in 24 to 125 billion. Venture capitalists were one note. In the year, all the money funneled into AI Nvidia's market cap nearly doubled to 4.3 trillion. So, you know, that's the big story of the year. It's probably the big story of the decade starting when ChatGPT was unveiled at the end of 20. And obviously one we're gonna continue to watch.
- [03:33]
Stacey Vanek Smith
So if you look at this bubble with all of your knowledge, like, are we headed for a bubble popping? Because I think that's the big concern.
- [03:40]
Brad Stone
I mean, I, you know, like, you guys have been doing this for a long time, maybe a little longer. I moved out to Silicon Valley in the late 90s, and I saw the, you know, wild optimism around the Internet in the late 90s, and there was a reckoning in 2000 and 2001, and then it happened again. People call it the unicorn bubble about 10 years later. And in both cases, yeah, I mean, there was carnage, but that underlying innovation, you know, emerged and a few companies were minted as kingmakers. And like, this is the pattern with new waves of technology. And I think that we'll see the same thing here.
- [04:17]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I think there's extra concern now because our economy is not as diversified as we might want it to be, especially in growth wise. Like, I feel like we're so dependent right now on AI growth continuing for our whole economy to grow that it feels like we just have so much at stake with this bubble. This is not your average bubble.
- [04:39]
Max Chafkin
Hot take. It's gonna burst. I don't think that it's gonna burst. That's my take.
- [04:43]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Why? Well, just back this up with facts.
- [04:45]
Max Chafkin
I actually think. I'm very hesitant to say this because we are recording this in mid December for an issue that is gonna hit in two weeks. And so if I'm wrong, we can make fun of me and whatever and edit it out January 8th or something.
- [04:58]
Odoo Advertiser
Okay.
- [04:59]
Max Chafkin
I think the bubble maybe already has burst. And you know, in what way? Well, I don't know, like Oracle over the last couple of days. Last week absolutely dropped. So. So it went down like 12% one day and then 5% another day. Now there, there's a stuff going on. Bloomberg Businessweek did a big story about Oracle that's also in this issue. Had some information about their data center plans that, that could have contributed to the drop of, of Oracle stock price. But, but I don't know, like we've already started to see some of these AI stocks already start to pull back. Now obviously they may recover and it may look like nothing's happened. Nothing much has happened, just a blip. But I don't know. There's a chance that we've already seen some of these asset prices peak.
- [05:42]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Brad, what do you think?
- [05:43]
Brad Stone
Yeah, I mean I think that's certainly true. I think this is a FOMO induced bubble. Investors are trying to find any way they can into this movement. A lot of these companies are private and so you get bets on companies like Oracle, you know, that are optimistically trying to get in on the action. Max is right, that stock price has fallen. But you know, you look at Nvidia and that seems to still be a pretty safe bet. I think like the question is, are we going to see the same kind of pullback that we saw in 2000 and 2001 where some companies go out of business? A lot of investors get hurt. That's what we're going to be paying close attention to next year.
- [06:20]
Stacey Vanek Smith
So what are you both looking for? What will be the signs of a bubble bursting? Is it stock price? Is it investment? Is it other things? Like what should we look for in if we're looking for harbingers of problems?
- [06:35]
Brad Stone
There's still so many questions around consumer adoption of these tools. And right now I think it's still being fueled by novelty and maybe a little group think like we're all being asked in different corners of our lives to embrace these tools if we ever start to see indication that consumers are pulling back, that they're not finding it quite as useful as maybe it was promised.
- [06:56]
Max Chafkin
That and also just like business spending, that's been one of the big.
- [06:59]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Stop investing.
- [07:00]
Max Chafkin
Yeah, I mean one of the big themes that, that we've talked about over and over again on this show is kind of the gap between spending and returns. But you know, that's true like from the, at the highest level of these, you know, openais is losing lots of money, but also is true when it comes to a lot of companies like doing pilot programs. And with these like AI pilot programs, the hope obviously is, is that it's going to pay off one day when you look at survey data, it hasn't paid off yet, and you sort of wonder, you know, when is that gonna, when is that day gonna come? If that, if that day doesn't come in 2026, I think that starts to maybe create problems.
- [07:35]
Brad Stone
I have a second story to watch in 2026.
- [07:38]
Stacey Vanek Smith
What else are you watching?
- [07:39]
Brad Stone
I mean, arguably, if AI is the story of the decade, then to me, the norm, busting, power expanding, kind of guardrail, flagrantly disregarding imperial presidency of Donald Trump is the big story for next year. I mean, so much of what we wrote about in BusinessWeek, so much of what talked about on the podcast has been, you know, the behavior of this president. Everything from, you know, doge to tariffs to tearing down the East Wing. I think that's the big story of the last year and the extent to which the Supreme Court, you know, will check him on tariffs on the removal power. For executives like Lisa cook, I think 26 is a defining moment in the aggregation of power and the existence, existence of checks and balances in the American democratic process.
- [08:35]
Max Chafkin
I think, without question, 2025 was the year of the imperial presidency.
- [08:40]
Stacey Vanek Smith
What about this year?
- [08:41]
Max Chafkin
Well, I think this is the year. What's the opposite of the imperial presidency? The people presidency, the people's presidency? I mean, I think with the scattering of elections we had in November, the resignations by GOP members of Congress, polling which is looking really bad, there's reason, I think, like, this is the year that when sort of Donald Trump comes back to earth where he starts to test, he really tested the limits of his power in 2025. I think we're going to see more people, both people in corporate roles, some of these businesses that have been like, basically just, you know, doing whatever they can to please the White House, starting to push back gingerly as well as members of the Republican Party.
- [09:26]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Well, you just wrote about how Costco is doing that, how Costco is pushing.
- [09:30]
Max Chafkin
Back Costco' doing it. I think the big question is like, is Costco doing it? Because they are so awesome. Everyone loves Costco. Costco has sued the Trump administration trying to recoup tariff money. So the idea is that if the Supreme Court, Brad mentioned, the Supreme Court is going to rule on these Liberation Day tariffs. If the Supreme Court rules that they are legal, that the president was not allowed to do that, then Costco and there are a bunch of other companies that are filing similar complaints, is, is trying to basically get a refund as soon as.
- [10:03]
Odoo Advertiser
Now.
- [10:03]
Max Chafkin
This is interesting because if you think about Costco, in contrast to say Amazon, remember earlier this year, Amazon, like floated. It wasn't even like an.
- [10:10]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Oh, yeah, they said they were going to show it on a bill. It was like itemized. Yeah, yeah.
- [10:14]
Max Chafkin
Some indication that maybe Amazon would like, itemize the tariff cost. And then the White House got wind of it. They called it, you know, like unpatriotic. Amazon immediately pulled back. Meanwhile, Costco getting involved in this legal action. Again, the reason for this could be either that Costco is sort of unique. They have a big, a really strong brand and really strong consumer loyalty. Exactly. Like you need your big jar of mayonnaise. So you're not even, you're not too mad.
- [10:41]
Stacey Vanek Smith
It comes up in like every single conversation with my parents.
- [10:43]
Max Chafkin
Right. And maybe Donald Trump is afraid to go after Costco specifically. On the other hand, maybe this is something that is the beginning of a greater pushback.
- [10:52]
Brad Stone
Yeah. I would just point out that if you're, if you remember when Amazon floated, that the White House called Jeff Bezos, who has a lot of non Amazon business in front of the Trump administration, including his space company Blue Origin. So the White House has a lot of leverage over companies like Amazon that I don't think that they have over Costco. And I don't see any pullback from companies and business leaders in trying to placate the White House and court Donald Trump. I mean, it will be interesting to see if that changes. But right now, a lot of corporate decisions are flowing through the White House and Mar A Lago.
- [11:28]
Max Chafkin
What about you, Stacey? What do you think? What do you make of these bubble burst?
- [11:33]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Let's see, with the AI bubble burst, I would say I'm scared of the bubble bursting and I'm scared of how, how dependent our whole economy is on AI. Also, the thing that I notice is how I feel like we're just not sure how AI is really going to be used or integrated and businesses are investing. And it reminds me of if you guys ever saw in south park, they had the underwear gnomes. Do you remember the underwear gnomes? It was like, very odd, but there are these little gnomes and they would steal people's underwear. And they had a business plan. And their business plan was, step one, steal everybody's underwear. Step two, question mark, question mark, question mark. Step three, millions of dollars. And I sort of feel like that is where AI is. It's in the question. It's like, okay, we're going to spend a lot of money on AI and then somehow this is going to translate to millions or billions of dollars. And I'm worried about that not translating and the effect that that'll have on the economy because it's not just, you know, a couple of big companies go down. I feel like everything's so tied into AI. That is the thing that worries me. I'm not sure if the bubble's going to burst or not. I feel like I hear compelling arguments on both sides, but it does worry me a lot.
- [12:45]
Brad Stone
The thing that does feel similar to the late 90s is just the tunnel vision around AI and the total lack of investor and corporate interest in anything else right now. So I share your concern, Stacey, and it feels like if some of these expectations aren't met, there will be nothing to cushion this economy because there is so much investor interest and energy being focused into one place.
- [13:08]
Max Chafkin
Stacy, we got Brad's basic take on 2026. Now, you. I know you're all about the sort of economic numbers. Right. You're about the indicators. What are you looking at for the year ahead?
- [13:21]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Well, I did a story for BusinessWeek on whether or not we can expect a recession in 2026, which is slightly different than the bubble question. But I was looking across the economy, looking at there. There's this whole bubble industry, essentially, of economic forecasters, and they are always feeding things into their computer models, trying to figure out if we're heading into a recession. One of the economists I talked to was Mark Zandi. He's chief economist for Moody's Analytics. Moody's analytics is a forecasting agency. This is what they do. And I said to him, will we see a recession in 2026? Here's what he said.
- [13:57]
Max Chafkin
I think the most likely outlook is for us to get through without a recession.
- [14:01]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Oh, this is excellent news, but your voice does not match the optimism of your words.
- [14:08]
Max Chafkin
Yeah, because I was going to qualify it by saying nothing else can go wrong. That's how tenuous things are. And, you know, there's a lot of things that could go wrong. So we're not in recession. We should be able to avoid one. But, you know, we're right on the precipice. And again, you know, everything has to.
- [14:27]
Brad Stone
Stick to script for us to avoid one.
- [14:29]
Stacey Vanek Smith
That was like, the optimistic take doesn't sound awesome. No.
- [14:33]
Brad Stone
Not a blast of confidence.
- [14:35]
Stacey Vanek Smith
No, no. And he, he was just saying that there are. Things are so fragile right now. I was one of the big things he looked at. He was like, I has to hold if it doesn't hold or if it doesn't, like, sort of succeed at the right pace. We're in a Lot of trouble. He also was talking about consumer spending. That's a big one. That's definitely an indicator that I'm going to watch because it is such a huge part of our economy. And right now, the wealthiest 10% of Americans, the top 10% of earners, account for half of the spending. And that puts us in a really tricky position, because if something happens to the wealthiest 10% of the population and they decide to save or they pull back, that is going to be really devastating for our economy. So consumer spending is becoming increasingly tricky, too, I would say. And a lot of people are just. Their spending's going down because of inflation, because people are earning less because the job market's so stagnant right now that people, I think, feel like they can't ask for raises, they're feeling nervous, they're saving. So consumer spending is another big one that I'm going to be watching.
- [15:41]
Max Chafkin
Yeah, I mean, I feel like we've throughout the year been sort of waiting for it to kind of fall off, and it hasn't fallen off yet, so. True. So, again, like, it's. It's one of these things. We just keep waiting for this recession to pop out. And we've sort been been in that position for, like, what, like, for several years.
- [15:59]
Odoo Advertiser
Yes.
- [15:59]
Stacey Vanek Smith
It's like that toy with the. The clown that pops out and you're just like, winding it and winding it. Yes. I feel. I keep feeling like the consumer sentiment numbers come out. They're terrible. They're the lowest they've been in decades. And I'm like, okay, here we go. Next time consumer spending comes out, it's going to be terrible. And what do you know, it like, looks pretty good. This keeps happening over and over again.
- [16:17]
Max Chafkin
Do you want to hit the job market quickly, Stacey? I mean, you talked about consumers being hesitant to. To spend potentially, or like, kind of economic uncertainty hangover consumers. What about the economic uncertainty hangover companies?
- [16:32]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yes. The job market, I think, is probably the most important part of the economy because it's just been so still for a year, which is really odd. Like, normally it's moving in one direction or the other. We have a really huge dynamic economy. It's hiring or layoffs are rising or something's happening, but it's been quite quiet. Like, you know, unemployment has been rising all year, but it's still near historic lows. The number that I'm specifically watching is the hiring rates, which is a little. A little off of, like, kind of the main jobs numbers, but hiring is, like, the lowest. It's been in decades. And I think it speaks to this kind of pause. I think a lot of companies are waiting, maybe considering AI investments or waiting to expand with like uncertainty about tariffs and things like that. So hiring is just abysmal. And you cannot have a healthy economy without a healthy job market. And our job market's just not. I mean, it's not in bad shape, but it's just kind of. I don't know, it's got like a light fever. It's not good.
- [17:31]
Brad Stone
I also wonder if AI might be freezing hiring, not. Not the reality of it, but the expectations that companies have created with their investors, with their boards, that AI would bring efficiencies. What a terrible time to start hiring in mass if that is the expectation that you have set.
- [17:53]
Okta Advertiser
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- [18:24]
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- [18:54]
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- [19:56]
Max Chafkin
All right, let's go to feuds. Stacy?
- [19:59]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yes.
- [19:59]
Max Chafkin
You know, Brad, I think knows this too. I love a good feud.
- [20:03]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I know you do.
- [20:03]
Max Chafkin
I know you do. I feel like feuds are a great way.
- [20:06]
Stacey Vanek Smith
2025 was a very good year for you by the.
- [20:09]
Max Chafkin
I wanted to talk about that because a year ago in Bloomberg in the Business Week Year Ahead issue, I made a feud list, my predicted feuds for the year.
- [20:17]
Stacey Vanek Smith
So you've been tracking feuds for years now.
- [20:19]
Max Chafkin
So I've got, yeah, I've been tracking feuds. I've got a little report card here from last year and I thought we could go over some of those and then talk about the new feuds. Yeah, go for it. All right. So last year this is really important. I had Dogman versus Paddington. I think clear cut win for Dogman on this one. Both movies came out around the same time. Paddington in Peru. It was the lowest grossing Paddington yet.
- [20:42]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Dog Mannington went to Peru.
- [20:44]
Max Chafkin
He went to Peru and no one cared or not that many people cared or not as many people as cared about the earlier Paddington movies. Dogman, on the other hand, it grossed a little bit less, but way smaller budget. Plus, hey, new ip, I think, I think this is a clear win for the half man, half dog. Okay. Speaking of Sam Altman prevailing, in my opinion, in the Altman vs Elon feud.
- [21:05]
Brad Stone
Is that what you really, is that what you predict?
- [21:08]
Max Chafkin
Well, I didn't actually make any predictions. I just said that these would be the few.
- [21:12]
Stacey Vanek Smith
One.
- [21:12]
Max Chafkin
How? Well, I would say I'm curious what Brad thinks says here, but Altman went into the year, you know, where Elon is kind of top of the world. He's suing open AI.
- [21:24]
Stacey Vanek Smith
He's waving chainsaws.
- [21:26]
Max Chafkin
He's. Yeah, he's close to Trump. And the year ends with Altman being, I think, at the center of the, of the sort of business story of the year, which is AI, but also getting lots of great access to the White House, which you would have thought would be, you know, Elon's main kind of trump card. I feel like this is a close call, though. I don't want to, I don't want to act like a draw. Yeah.
- [21:46]
Brad Stone
I'm going to give it to Elon and I'll explain why. I don't disagree with Max's reasoning. But I think, look, Elon has so many ways to win. And you look at SpaceX right now on track for 180 launches this year. You know, Starlink is killing it. And Bloomberg has reported that SpaceX is on the verge of an IPO. It could raise $30 billion, a $1.5 trillion valuation. Elon himself will be sitting on, I don't know, north of 500 billion worth of SpaceX shares. And his companies are so tightly linked, as Max knows so well, that it puts Tesla in a position to succeed. I mean all of Xai, of course he could pull out a win in AI just by virtue.
- [22:31]
Stacey Vanek Smith
He got a trillion dollar pay package.
- [22:32]
Brad Stone
Yeah. And this idea of.
- [22:36]
Max Chafkin
I don't know.
- [22:36]
Brad Stone
I mean, yeah, Elon is, you know, SpaceX right now is the juggernaut of his portfolio and it's in a really good position.
- [22:45]
Max Chafkin
Real quick, Kendrick v Drake.
- [22:47]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I think that was a great feud. That was my favorite feud.
- [22:50]
Max Chafkin
Huge L for Drake though.
- [22:51]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I mean, oh, lawsuit drop even I know that.
- [22:55]
Max Chafkin
Kendrick, the super bowl performance. All right, new feuds.
- [22:59]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Oh, 2026 feuds.
- [23:00]
Odoo Advertiser
2026.
- [23:01]
Max Chafkin
Here are some predictions. First feud, Nvidia versus Huawei. Okay, now Huawei is a gigantic Chinese tech conglomerate. And the reason I put these two together is because Huawei is one of the Chinese companies that is making chips, like state of the art chips in China. Now we had this thing that came up earlier in December where Trump basically said, okay, Nvidia, you're allowed to sell more advanced chips to China. A bunch of China hawks like totally freaked out because like they're going to give these like really important strategic assets.
- [23:35]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yeah, this is like a national security issue for a long time.
- [23:38]
Max Chafkin
It's unclear how China is going to play this, but there are at least some signs that they're not going to maybe buy that many of these Nvidia chips basically because they think that Huawei can do just as well that like that the chips aren't as big an advantage as we thought. We've seen this play out similarly like with Apple where Huawei has and a couple other Chinese companies have really caught up. But like Chinese tech companies are catching up in, even in these areas that I think we saw as being, you know, sort of the domain of the United States. And so I think that is, that is an interesting story to watch.
- [24:13]
Brad Stone
We'll want to flex from China, you know, publicly reject the Nvidia chips, say that you want to build a self reliant industry and then probably go source those Nvidia chips anyway, maybe indirectly. So either way, I do think it's a big rivalry, and I think either way, China ends up with a stronger hand.
- [24:32]
Max Chafkin
All right, now, last year I predicted that Trump would feud with Jerome Powell. And I feel very good about that prediction because it was like a thing we talked about.
- [24:40]
Stacey Vanek Smith
You nailed it.
- [24:41]
Max Chafkin
And in fact, I got in fight. There are people who are like, no, they're not gonna fight. You know, I had a few arguments at the beginning of the year because at the time, like, Trump was saying kind of nice things about Jerome Powell.
- [24:52]
Stacey Vanek Smith
And Jerome Powell's not like a feisty person. He is. No, he's not. Yeah, he's not. He's not gonna. I don't know. So throw shade at anybody.
- [25:00]
Max Chafkin
But here's what I'm wondering. I mean, obviously I think Trump and the Fed is a big feud.
- [25:06]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Oh, yeah.
- [25:06]
Max Chafkin
In 2026. But I'm kind of curious, Stacey, like, this is really your Valley week, for better or worse, what is the feud like? Like, in terms of Trump and the Fed, Is it still Trump and Powell? Because Trump is going to name very soon, I think we believe, you know, a replacement to Powell. That's going to create a weird lame duck situation for a few years. Yeah.
- [25:28]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Powell's term is up.
- [25:30]
Max Chafkin
Yeah. So do we get like sort of Trump and one of the Kevins against Powell, or does one of the Kevins, I believe, Warsh or Hassert. Right.
- [25:41]
Stacey Vanek Smith
It's Kevin Hassett.
- [25:42]
Max Chafkin
Right, sorry. Well, anyway, I have to say, I just have to pause and say my all time favorite thing that Trump ever did as a politician was when he endorsed Eric for Senate in, in Missouri, like two years, three years ago, there were two candidates running for Senate in Missouri and he just endorsed Eric and he essentially endorsed them both. And so. So, so anytime there's an opportunity for that with Trump, he finds a lot of people anyway. Okay, so my question, Stacey, is.
- [26:10]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yeah.
- [26:10]
Max Chafkin
Like, who is the feud with? Is it. Is it Trump and whoever he picks against kind of like the dovish forces? Or does whoever he pick turn around? And some Fed commentators are saying this and sort of suddenly become captive to the institution, like, turn around and start resisting Trump. Trump as soon as they get the nomination.
- [26:31]
Stacey Vanek Smith
That's interesting. I mean, I think the feud this year, the feud between Trump and Jerome Powell, which I do think was a feud insofar as Jerome Powell has feuds, which I don't think he has a lot of them, but I really think it was over power because the Federal Reserve just has a lot of power over the economy. And, and the President doesn't really have access to that. It's pretty protected.
- [26:58]
Max Chafkin
Right.
- [26:59]
Stacey Vanek Smith
And Powell just wouldn't budge. He would not budge. And that, I think infuriated President Trump. Cuz it's real power. The Federal Reserve chair, the, you know, setting interest rates, that is incredibly powerful way of raising money for the government, way of stimulating or slowing down the economy. I mean, it's, it's a lot of power. And, and I think Trump wants it. He sees it, he wants it. I think the person who steps into that role could make some trouble for Trump. I feel like Jerome Powell's put up quite a bit of resistance, Lisa Cook's put up resistance. They've both been successful in staying in their positions. Also, you know, there's been more dissent within the federal. So the Federal Open Market Committee, they vote on whether or not to raise interest rates and what to do. And normally it's a unanimous vote. It's almost always unanimous. Unanimous. Recently, the last couple times, there have been very public dissent, which they've said, oh, you know, Trump's wormed his way into the Fed, which I think is true. And I also think it lays the groundwork for Fed governors to disagree with Trump publicly and to maybe have more of an individual voice than before. So I don't think it's a slam dunk for Trump because once you get into that position, I mean, he, you know, Jay Powell was appointed by President Trump. I was just gonna say to do what he said.
- [28:19]
Max Chafkin
I think the prediction is Trump versus whoever he nominated, that like we're gonna have like three weeks of honeymoon and then like, it's gonna be one true social insult after another against one of the Kevin's.
- [28:30]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I think so too.
- [28:31]
Max Chafkin
All right, Stacey, we got a couple more things to do before we get to listener predictions. The first is, as I understand it, you've devised a game for us, for, for me and Brad.
- [28:40]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yes, it is. Headlines. Mad Libs. Have you both played Mad Libs?
- [28:45]
Odoo Advertiser
Brad?
- [28:46]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Max?
- [28:46]
Max Chafkin
I do, because I have children. And it is, I have to say, I think it may be the most inane thing. My cheers.
- [28:53]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I will not hear it smeared. So basically what I was thinking is, you know, that we don't know what the headlines of 2026 are gonna be, but we have all been reporting for a long time. We all have kind of a reporter's intuition and I was hoping to tap into that intuition with Mad Libs. So I have headlines written out and I have left some of the words blank. Some adjectives some nouns, some proper names. So I'm gonna ask you and Brad to fill them in, and then I'm gonna read you a couple of predictive headlines that I think could end up gracing the Bloomberg Business week covers of 2026.
- [29:29]
Max Chafkin
Brad, this is not how Business Week.
- [29:31]
Brad Stone
Normally chooses, but perhaps, perhaps this is how we should do it. So I will be taking careful notes.
- [29:38]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Brad, this sounds like a commitment for a 2026 headline. Anyway, here we go. So first thing, I need an adjective. Max.
- [29:49]
Max Chafkin
Harry.
- [29:50]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Okay. Number. Brad.
- [29:52]
Brad Stone
12.
- [29:54]
Max Chafkin
Okay.
- [29:55]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Company. Max. Any company.
- [29:57]
Max Chafkin
Snickers. That's a candy bar. Hershey.
- [30:02]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Okay. Company. Brad Crumble. Now a job. Max.
- [30:14]
Max Chafkin
Vice president of market.
- [30:18]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Proper name Brad Samuel. A chore. Max.
- [30:26]
Max Chafkin
Laundry.
- [30:29]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Something an adult has to do. Brad.
- [30:32]
Brad Stone
Save for retirement.
- [30:35]
Stacey Vanek Smith
And something enjoyable, something relaxing. Max.
- [30:38]
Odoo Advertiser
Surfing.
- [30:39]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Okay, okay, Here are the two predictive headlines of 2026. Here's the first one. Magnificent 7. More like Harry 12. A new crop of companies are the stock market's darlings, including Hershey's. Crumble. Including Hershey's and Crumble.
- [30:57]
Max Chafkin
All right. Okay, so like Tracks. We'd have to imagine like a huge shift in economy.
- [31:03]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Shift.
- [31:04]
Max Chafkin
The AI market just completely. The rise of Hershey and Cruise completely collapses. Economy plunges into a historic depression. The only thing left is.
- [31:16]
Stacey Vanek Smith
So we're eating our feelings.
- [31:17]
Max Chafkin
Exactly right.
- [31:18]
Stacey Vanek Smith
We're eating our feelings.
- [31:19]
Brad Stone
Also, I think that, you know, the financial press's ability to coin, you know, the word for a group of companies from the Magnificent Seven to Fang in this scenario has really fallen apart. What are we calling it?
- [31:31]
Max Chafkin
The hairy 12. Yeah.
- [31:34]
Brad Stone
Awful.
- [31:35]
Max Chafkin
Awful.
- [31:37]
Stacey Vanek Smith
All right, the second headline is my AI VP of marketing, my AI assistant Samuel can do laundry, save for retirement and surf.
- [31:48]
Max Chafkin
It's my new prediction for what AI that works. I actually think that's like OpenAI actually literally said all would be a solid.
- [31:55]
Stacey Vanek Smith
VP of marketing.
- [31:58]
Max Chafkin
Tracks, surf thing. Optimist, concern. But I don't know about ChatGPT.
- [32:03]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Well, surf the web.
- [32:05]
Odoo Advertiser
Or.
- [32:06]
Brad Stone
Or. This new AI enabled Vice President of marketing is doing the job so well that the actual employee is surfing.
- [32:14]
Max Chafkin
Brad, Harry 12, cover of business Week. What say you?
- [32:18]
Brad Stone
Well, it. It seems like from the Mad Lib that the hairy 12 are.
- [32:23]
Max Chafkin
Are.
- [32:23]
Brad Stone
Are sweet. Like companies selling sugary treats. Right. Hershey and Crumbleson never bet against the sweet tooth of the bottom.
- [32:32]
Stacey Vanek Smith
That's true.
- [32:33]
Brad Stone
So I say up Polymarket, if you're.
- [32:36]
Max Chafkin
Listening, you heard it here first.
- [32:37]
Stacey Vanek Smith
You heard it here first. I mean, I would buy that mag. I would buy a magazine that had candy and the Harry 12 on it.
- [32:44]
Brad Stone
Harry. 12.
- [32:44]
Max Chafkin
Why is it Harry, though?
- [32:45]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Because of you.
- [32:53]
Okta Advertiser
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- [33:26]
Wise / LG Gram Advertiser
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- [33:54]
Odoo Advertiser
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- [34:57]
Max Chafkin
Little segment before we leave, Brad. Before we leave you all and let you continue eating black eyed peas or whatever. We've got a lightning round, so none of us should think too hard about this.
- [35:07]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Okay?
- [35:07]
Max Chafkin
It's like a. Like a one or two word answer and we're gonna go through the the blank of the year. So here we go. Okay, Brad. Political movement of the year.
- [35:18]
Brad Stone
Climate absolutists.
- [35:20]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Ooh.
- [35:21]
Max Chafkin
Stacy.
- [35:22]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Maha.
- [35:23]
Max Chafkin
Maha. Okay, mine is the one where you're like, all these people want to. I forget what it's called. Like, digital abstinence, basically. Ludditism. Oh, but it's like. It's, like, fancified. It's like Ezra Klein is on this now. Okay, musical genre, Brad. Musical genre of the year.
- [35:40]
Stacey Vanek Smith
R B, AI Generated music.
- [35:43]
Max Chafkin
Oh, God. Stacy. Country.
- [35:44]
Stacey Vanek Smith
What?
- [35:45]
Max Chafkin
Okay, okay. Highest. Gross. Higher. Gross. Dune 3 or the forthcoming Avengers movie. Brad.
- [35:51]
Brad Stone
Spider Man 4.
- [35:53]
Stacey Vanek Smith
He went rogue.
- [35:54]
Max Chafkin
Okay, I say Avengers, I'm going Dune 3, but only because I like it. I actually have no idea.
- [35:59]
Stacey Vanek Smith
No one is gonna go see Dune 3.
- [36:00]
Max Chafkin
Okay, country that wins the World Cup?
- [36:04]
Brad Stone
Brazil.
- [36:05]
Max Chafkin
Stacey.
- [36:06]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Germany.
- [36:07]
Max Chafkin
Usa. Come on. Okay, Nobel Peace Prize winner. Brat.
- [36:11]
Brad Stone
I have no idea. But I'm. Well, let's say not the current president of the United States.
- [36:18]
Max Chafkin
Stacy.
- [36:19]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I don't know. Pass.
- [36:21]
Max Chafkin
Okay. FIFA Peace Prize winner, Brad.
- [36:25]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Donald Trump, the current president of the United states again. No, J.D. vance.
- [36:29]
Max Chafkin
They gotta give it to. I'm saying MBS. They gotta give it. There's. There's World cup coming in. Good call.
- [36:34]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I like that one.
- [36:35]
Max Chafkin
I actually don't know if they give out the FIFA Peace Prize every. Every year.
- [36:39]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Maybe they could give out a few a year. Why not?
- [36:41]
Max Chafkin
Okay, Brad, midterm results.
- [36:44]
Brad Stone
Yeah. I think the Democrats retake the House, but by a very small margin, and nothing really changes.
- [36:51]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Same.
- [36:52]
Max Chafkin
I say the Democrats retake both. No, you guys are right.
- [36:56]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Okay.
- [36:56]
Max Chafkin
Timothy Chalamet unmasked as Easty Kid. Easty kid. I actually don't know how to say this. Do you know what I'm talking about?
- [37:03]
Stacey Vanek Smith
That he's secretly a rapper.
- [37:05]
Max Chafkin
Yes. Timothee Chalamet, secretly a rapper.
- [37:08]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yes, I am. I'll say yes.
- [37:10]
Max Chafkin
I'm not deep in the lore here, but I'm gonna say yes, too.
- [37:13]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Okay.
- [37:13]
Max Chafkin
Kind of looks like him when you look at the picture of the guy wearing the mask.
- [37:17]
Stacey Vanek Smith
The mask.
- [37:18]
Max Chafkin
Yeah. Brad, are you. Are you up to date on this? All right. Hot new office trend.
- [37:24]
Brad Stone
Brad napping under your desk.
- [37:27]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Oh. Oh, office naps. I like that. I'm gonna say that. Like, FaceTime is back. Like, people putting in crazy hours.
- [37:36]
Max Chafkin
Okay, related prediction in the office. Offices are the hot new office trend. Like, yeah, like. No. Like we're gonna see some big company pull back from the. The open office craze.
- [37:48]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I mean, look at Jamie Dimon and, like, that huge new building he built with the in.
- [37:53]
Max Chafkin
No, but do they have. Do they have divided offices? I'm saying, like, this trend.
- [37:57]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Offices with doors.
- [37:58]
Max Chafkin
I'm saying. Yeah, doors are the hot new office trend. That's my prediction because you're having fewer people come to the office because there's. Because of work from home and so on and all these, like, zooms and facetimes. It's just so much louder. It's just so hard to have a zoom conversation from a tightly. I mean, when you're packed inside cubicles.
- [38:18]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I hope that's true, but I think that ship has sailed. It's just so much cheaper to pack. Pack people in. And I think money wins.
- [38:25]
Brad Stone
I applaud Max's prediction. I want to go back to the time when we all.
- [38:29]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yes.
- [38:29]
Brad Stone
When we all have viewed the location and the size of each other's offices as a proxy for how well we were doing inside the workplace corner office, which floor.
- [38:40]
Max Chafkin
I actually like kind of open offices. I feel like most people don't actually like them, which is. You're like, why did we do this? But I don't know.
- [38:47]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I just can't because a month money. I just.
- [38:49]
Max Chafkin
Yeah, well, it's always that, isn't it? Okay, last one. New AI trend. Stacy.
- [38:56]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I think that we're gonna start seeing AI engineered to be people's friends or like, companion. You know what I mean? Like personality engineer. I think we're gonna start seeing AI entities that are, like, tailored to our needs. Like sort of like an assistant or an assistant slash friend. I just, I think we're gonna start to see AI being tailored to our kind of emotional slash life needs. That's what I think.
- [39:26]
Brad Stone
I'm gonna say restrictions on usage, like the screen time equivalent for AI, not just with parents, for kids, but people in their personal lives. Dating apps. We're gonna look for kind of genuine connection and ways to keep AI out of the equation. I'm going to.
- [39:43]
Max Chafkin
I'm going to biggy piggyback on that one with tools to, like, consumer tools to allow you to sniff out AI usage. So, like in your chat, in your. In your text messaging application, or in your dating app or whatever. Like I. I could imagine. And I think it would be useful to have like a filter, a percent chance that. That your friend used AI to.
- [40:07]
Stacey Vanek Smith
It's like when you get the phone call and it's like, like probably spam, except it'll be like, this is probably a robot.
- [40:13]
Max Chafkin
This chat, this, this podcast is 100% human. For now, Stacey and I think we've run out of time.
- [40:20]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Yes, we have.
- [40:22]
Max Chafkin
Brad Stone, thanks for being here.
- [40:23]
Stacey Vanek Smith
If I were a robot, I would know what to say. I would smooth the ending out better.
- [40:27]
Max Chafkin
Brad, thank you for coming.
- [40:28]
Brad Stone
Thanks, guys. That was fun.
- [40:29]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Thanks, Brad.
- [40:34]
Max Chafkin
Stacey, before we close out this episode, before we say goodbye to the new year, we've already said goodbye to Brad. You remember we asked listeners to send in predictions for the new year, what they were thinking. We got some great voice memos. Charlie also went on the street and asked some, some people as well to get their take. Let's give a listen to what our listeners think is going to happen in the new year. My prediction is that 2026 is the year that college finally loses its appeal to Americans.
- [41:02]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I think Zahran's definitely gonna do some sort of dance routine sometime next year. There will be more than one video.
- [41:07]
Max Chafkin
Of him doing a good dance.
- [41:09]
Brad Stone
The first prediction I have is the.
- [41:11]
Max Chafkin
Continued rise in the sale and the.
- [41:13]
Brad Stone
Celebration of physical media.
- [41:16]
Wise / LG Gram Advertiser
Paper books to cassette tapes to vinyl records. I also am hopeful that substack is.
- [41:20]
Max Chafkin
Going to become an economic engine for.
- [41:22]
Brad Stone
Really high quality journalism.
- [41:24]
Max Chafkin
Everything's protein, protein these days.
- [41:25]
Okta Advertiser
I think fiber is going to make a humpback.
- [41:27]
Brad Stone
Travis Kelce is going to be the one who will be calling off the.
- [41:31]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Engagement to Taylor Swift as he struggles.
- [41:33]
Max Chafkin
With post retirement identity. Watching reels is the new smoking. No piece of banana art, either with or sans duct tape will fetch a penny over $500,000. 2026 is going to be the year of a major public, cultural, and maybe even political backlash against AI. We're gonna end up with all the bars in Tatooine having no droids policy by the end of 2026. Well, first of all, thank you to Bren, Ray, Pete, David and everyone who gave us predictions. Also, thanks to Charlie for going out and asking people. I gotta say, I love the no droids thing. You know, I'm totally on board. You know, my bar is have a no droids policy.
- [42:19]
Stacey Vanek Smith
What does that mean, no droids?
- [42:21]
Max Chafkin
Well, what Bren, who sent this in, is saying is that there's gonna be a cultural backlash to AI and he's suggesting that, you know, in the Star wars bar where you have androids and aliens and so on going together, he's imagining a situation where the bar where.
- [42:38]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Like, Jabba the Hutt was.
- [42:39]
Max Chafkin
Yeah, Jabba will be allowed, but C3PO gotta go.
- [42:43]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Oh, I know. You're letting it come to my bar.
- [42:47]
Max Chafkin
Yeah, we know that.
- [42:50]
Stacey Vanek Smith
C3PO's welcome in my bar. I liked the comeback of fiber. Very interesting.
- [42:56]
Max Chafkin
I mean that. I feel like that is a slam dunk, right? What do you think about this, Chris? This, this Travis Kelce prediction?
- [43:02]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Oh, the Travis Kelsey. No way. No way. That he will call out. I mean, if he calls off his engagement to Taylor Swift, he's like, clearly with the Chiefs. I think the that his career might be in its last year or two. And being with her presents so many very interesting business opportunities for him. His profile's so much higher than it was, but when they started dating, I.
- [43:27]
Max Chafkin
Think, yeah, I think this is true love. I am on the record. This marriage is going to last. That is my prediction.
- [43:35]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I mean, I think it would be really hard if it didn't because it's also public.
- [43:40]
Max Chafkin
Then you're gonna get that house in the suburbs with the basketball court. Court is all I'm saying.
- [43:43]
Stacey Vanek Smith
I think so. And the music studio. I believe in those crazy kids. We'll see.
- [43:48]
Max Chafkin
All right. Happy New Year, Stacy.
- [43:49]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Happy New Year, Max. This show is produced by Stacy Wong. Magnus Henriksen is our supervising producer and Amy Keen is our executive producer. Sam Rogic handles engineering and Dave Purcell fact checks. Sage Bauman heads Bloomberg Podcasts. Special thanks to Jeff Musk, Julia Rubin, Charlie Gorvin, Angel Recchio, and Maria Ling. If you have a minute, please rate and review the show. It means a lot to us. And if you have a story that should be our business, please email us. Everybody's loomberg.net that is everybody's with an slumberg.net thank you for listening. We'll see you next week.
- [44:26]
Max Chafkin
Happy New Year.
- [44:27]
Stacey Vanek Smith
Happy New Year.
- [44:33]
Okta Advertiser
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- [45:06]
Wise / LG Gram Advertiser
Has officially ended Support for Windows 10 upgrade to Windows 11 with an LG Gram laptop? Voted PCMag's reader's choice. Top laptop brand for 2025. Thin and ultra lightweight, the LG Gram keeps you productive anywhere. And Windows 11 gives you access to free security updates and ongoing feature upgrades. Visit LGUSA.com iheart for great seasonal savings on LG Gram laptops with Windows 11? PCMag Reader's Choice. Used with permission. All rights reserved.
- [45:34]
Max Chafkin
Served. This is Julian Edelman from Dudes on.
- [45:37]
Brad Stone
Dudes with Gronk and Jewels. Sunday mornings I've got my game day ritual, coffee, lucky socks, and now new Morning Uncrustable Sandwiches. It's all about that 12 gram protein boost with the new Uncrustables Bright Eyed.
- [45:54]
Max Chafkin
Berry or Up and Apple flavors.
- [45:57]
Brad Stone
Bright Eye Berries got a feisty receiver.
- [46:01]
Max Chafkin
Energy up an apple.
- [46:03]
Brad Stone
Your classic Do it all tight end.
- [46:06]
Max Chafkin
Soft, pillowy, packed with protein and easy.
- [46:10]
Wise / LG Gram Advertiser
Enough for Gronk to grab from the freezer.
- [46:13]
Max Chafkin
Whether you're on the couch, driving to the tailgate or heading to the locker room, New Morning Uncrustable Sandwiches are the MVP of snacks. Your new Sunday kickoff ritual starts here.
- [46:30]
Brad Stone
With New Morning Uncrustable sandwiches packed with 12 grams of protein.