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Everything Everywhere Daily: History, Science, Geography & More
Why Can't The US Do Better In the World Cup?
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In the summer of 2026, the United States caught World cup fever, just as we do every four years. And just like we do every time, we were eliminated by a much smaller country. The United States is a large, rich country. We win a disproportionate share of Olympic medals and Nobel prizes, yet when it comes to the world's most popular sport, we don't do very well. At least the men's team learn more about the structural challenges standing in the way of American soccer success on this episode of Everything Everywhere Daily. This episode is sponsored by what Could Go Right. The news has a way of making it feel like everything is getting worse. But what if that isn't the whole story? What Could Go Right is a podcast that challenges the constant narrative of doom by asking a simple but powerful question, what Could Go Right? Hosted by Zachary Carabelle, each episode takes on a major issue shaping our world. Can we achieve superabundance without triggering AI doom? 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The closest the U.S. men's National Soccer team has ever come to winning the World cup was a third place finish at the inaugural tournament in 1930. Third place sounds great. A top three finish in a modern World cup would be a remarkable achievement, but in 1930, most European countries boycotted the tournament, believing it should have been held in Europe, meaning Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain didn't attend. England was not a member of football's governing body, FIFA, so England, Scotland and Wales didn't attend either. A tournament without some of the best countries in the world makes for a very different tournament, which helps explain why the United States did so well. And that being said, doing well meant only winning two games and then losing to Argentina 6 to 1. Since then, it hasn't been great for U.S. soccer. The United States has participated in 13 World Cups but has failed to even qualify 11 times, including nine straight tournaments between 1954 and 1986. It's reasonable to ask why the United States has not been more successful on soccer's global stage. The United States is the third largest country in the world by population. It has the world's largest economy and has had it for almost 150 years. And it has a tradition of athletic success across multiple sports in the Olympics. The problem is, there isn't a simple formula for World cup success. Take, for example, England. They invented the sport. The English Premier League is unquestionably the best league in the world, and it's very well funded. England has produced multiple legendary players over the last century, and yet they have only won a single World cup in 1966. Italian soccer has won the World cup four times, guided by a legendary defensive system and world class players. To the dismay of everyone in Italy, they have failed to even qualify for the last two tournaments. Germany has won four World Cups and their program has produced some of the sport's most brilliant players, and it has had a pattern for constant success up until the point where it didn't. Since winning the title in 2014, Germany has fallen woefully short of national expectations. Brazil is the most decorated soccer program in the world, yet the last time they won the tournament was almost a quarter century ago in 2002, and since then they have experienced A cycle of early exits and embarrassing losses. There are 211 FIFA recognized national teams all chasing the same title. Yet only eight nations have ever accomplished that feat and all are in Europe or South America. These eight nations hold structural advantages that are very difficult to replicate even for a country like the United States. The strength of a nation's top professional league is usually a strong indicator of a national team's success. All of the teams that have won a World cup title boast powerfully historically successful leagues. Consider England's Premier League, the successor to the first division, which dates back to the 19th century. Over the last 150 years, it has showcased historic clubs across England. The earliest clubs were connected to industrial and coal producing centers in Manchester, Birmingham, Liverpool and Leeds. The deep loyalty of these working class cities gave these clubs an unmatched fan base, historic stadiums and staggering financial values. For example, London's historic Chelsea club was sold in 2022 for £4.25 billion. Clubs like Chelsea don't just consist of their top team. They have youth programs for children who live near the club. These youth teams are not just something that they sponsor to support the community. They're a vital part of the long term success of the club. Consider Arsenal, the 2026 Premier League winner and the UEFA Champions League runner up. Arsenal has a youth soccer academy for toddlers as young as two. These academy offerings are primarily for Arsenal fans who live in North London. Parents pay for these clubs subsidized toddler programs which focus on basic ball handling and having fun. But as the kids grow up, they benefit from the deep well of Arsenal coaches, all UEFA certified who coach competitive teams for kids as young as six. The coaches of even the youngest players are highly skilled and unlike teams in the US are not just the parents of the players. These coaches keep a keen eye out for young players with passion, coordination and speed. Kids recognized for these traits are funneled into a special academy which is paid for by Arsenal. The coaches, facilities and competition all get better as the players advance. The best players in England don't pay for soccer beyond the age of 6. Beginning at around age 9, the players and their families can sign what's known as a schoolboy academy registration. This is a non binding annual contract of sorts that establishes a bond between the family and the club and passes the financial burden on to Arsenal. A schoolboy contract provides higher levels of coaching, training, gear, travel expenses and access to Arsenal's sports science program, all at no cost to the family. The parent club, Arsenal, pays for all of this as a scouting initiative. As the kids get older, they sign contracts with Arsenal as they move up the ladder towards the top club team. Arsenal program director Idu Gaspar described Arsenal's Hail End youth program in 2023 by noting Arsenal's youth academy. Historically speaking, is the club's identity. Many of the best players in the world star for the teams that raise them, such as Arsenal's 24 year old Bukayo Saka, who joined the Hailand Academy at the age of seven. When they reach the heights of the truly elite players, they often transfer between clubs in high profile, lucrative deals. Yet the entire process starts at the club level when they're very young at very minimal cost to the players families. This process is mirrored across Europe in the German Bundesliga, the Spanish La liga and French League 1. This same type of club structure is also practiced in South America. The end result is a parent club that develops soccer talent in its area at its own expense, builds a rabid fan base and develops a talent pipeline directly to the club's professional team. This is extremely different from the US Model Many people, including many Americans, are shocked to discover that the United States has more children playing organized soccer than any other country except China. It's the most widely played youth sport in the country, surpassing even basketball and baseball. Recent estimates suggest that more than 3 million American kids play organized soccer, which is nearly twice the size of the youth player pool of Germany and France. However, unlike the rest of the world, in the American model, the cost of player development falls on the players and their families in the United States. As kids move beyond the earliest recreational teams into suburban or local club teams, costs begin to multiply. In many cases, the increase is more than many families can afford. This financial burden falls disproportionately on urban communities where many talented athletes are priced out of competitive soccer entirely due to the high costs and limited access to facilities. Putting the cost of American youth soccer into perspective is America's leading World cup scorer Landon Donovan, who offered his appraisal. It's become at best a middle class sport and it's really a middle to upper class sport. It's four, five or six thousand dollars a year before you get into uniforms and travel. We grew up in a 900 foot home. My mom was a special ed teacher who made $30,000. There's zero chance I could have played soccer in this country today. I wouldn't have been able to afford to play. This is in stark contrast to European or South American clubs, highlighting a massive structural gap. There's no coherent interconnected Club system In the United States, Major League Soccer may offer some camps and academies, but they're often fee based and don't connect players to the club for the long term. The MLS recently launched a club sponsored academy program called MLS Next, but it's only six years old and very small compared to other leagues worldwide. Player acquisition in MLS and in all professional North American sports has traditionally been done through a draft. The draft is organized so that the worst performing teams get the highest picks, so the best American draft eligible players are selected by the teams that had the worst seasons. In a closed draft system, there's no financial incentive for a local club to absorb the massive cost of player development if those players up playing for another team. The cost of coaching in American youth clubs is high for those that have paid certified coaches in lower level leagues, coaches are usually volunteer parents and most of them don't have advanced knowledge of the game. They're mostly there to chaperone and organize the schedule, not to actually teach the intricacies of the sport. This is in stark contrast to the fully qualified professional coaching ranks you'll find in Europe. Also, while American kids primarily divide their athletic attention among baseball, basketball and football, children in Argentina and Germany grow up with a singular hyper focused cultural they play soccer. Conversely, kids in Argentina or Germany don't play other sports, especially team sports, as often as kids in the United States. A gifted American athlete who can play anything is likely to be steered towards a sport such as baseball, football or basketball, where there is more and better coaching and greater cultural awareness. One final reason why certain nations have greater success in soccer is the concept of relegation. Relegation is the penalty for the worst performing teams at the bottom of a league. Teams in the bottom three are automatically kicked out of the top division at the end of the season and are forced to drop down to a lower, less prestigious league for the next year. Relegated teams have to fight their way back into the top league by finishing at the top of the lower league. Relegation is a financial catastrophe for a soccer club. When a team gets relegated, it loses most of its television and advertising revenue. Relegated teams lose more than 80% of that revenue because lower league TV contracts are a fraction of those in the top league. Teams that are relegated and commit significant sums to player salaries are often forced to sell the contracts of their best players to avoid bankruptcy. Knowing their entire future depends on avoiding relegation. Clubs have to devote far more money to players and development than North American sports teams. Your average Premier League team will often operate at break even or even at a loss, whereas the worst NFL team will still probably make tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in annual operating profit. And perhaps the most important factor in all of this is history. Soccer clubs around the world have data going back more than a century on coaching methods and strategies. America simply doesn't have this legacy to rely on. And of course, none of this applies to women's soccer. The US has built a very powerful legacy in women's soccer, winning four of the nine World cup tournaments since its inception in 1991. Because the international women's game is far newer, the United States was able to build an early empire thanks to Title IX, passed in 1972, the landmark legislation legally required American universities to fund scholarships, facilities, and coaching for women's athletics. As a result, nearly every college in the country added a women's soccer program. At a time when opportunities in global soccer clubs were limited, European nations have begun using the same club strategy with women's teams to overcome the head start that American women had. As a result, the US Women's team isn't as dominant as it once was simply because the rest of the world has gotten better. Winning a World cup isn't easy. Putting a championship team on the field is a process that is decades in the making. In 1993, Japan began a program to win a men's World cup by the year 2050. Assuming that they actually win the World cup in 2050, the grandparents of those players would have been around in 1993. Many in Japan will consider the program a success if they can win a single World cup during the entire 21st century. The U.S. men's National Team has gotten better, there's no doubt about that. But there is still a long way to go if the United States is ever to find itself among the elite countries in the sport. It would probably require a complete overhaul of how youth soccer is played, as well as a major cultural shift towards the game. Currently, American TV rights for the English Premier League sell for more money than the MLS TV rights in the same country. Over the next decade or two, success will more realistically be measured by whether the team advances to the quarterfinals than by actually winning the tournament outright. The executive producer of Everything Everywhere Daily is Charles Daniel. The associate producers are Austin Otkin and Cameron Keefer. Research and writing for this episode was provided by Joel Hermanson. My big thanks go to everyone who supports the show over on Patreon. Your support helps make this podcast possible. And I also want to remind everyone about the community groups on Facebook and Discord, as this is where everything happens outside of the podcast. As always, if you leave a review on any of the major podcast apps, you too can have it running the show.