Everything Everywhere Daily: "The Worst Day in Human History: January 23, 1556"

Host: Gary Arndt
Release Date: January 21, 2025
Executive Producer: Charles Daniel
Associate Producers: Benji Long and Cameron Keever

Overview

In this compelling episode of Everything Everywhere Daily, host Gary Arndt embarks on a profound exploration to identify the worst single day in human history. Delving deep into historical records, natural disasters, pandemics, and wars, Gary meticulously analyzes various catastrophic events to determine which day stands out as the most devastating in terms of human loss.

Introduction: Defining the Worst Day

Gary opens the episode by posing a thought-provoking question: "What was the worst single day in human history?" He acknowledges the complexity of this inquiry, noting the myriad of catastrophic events humanity has endured over centuries. The challenge lies in quantifying and comparing these events, especially considering the limitations in historical record-keeping and the varying scales of different disasters.

Gary Arndt [03:09]: "The easiest way to measure what the worst day would be would simply be to try and determine what day saw the greatest loss of human life."

Setting the Parameters

To approach this daunting task, Gary establishes a framework for his analysis:

• Daily Human Deaths: Currently, with a global population of approximately 8.2 billion, about 175,000 people die each day under normal circumstances.

• Historical Population Context: Before the 19th-century population boom, the world population hovered around 500 million. Adjusting for this, the daily death toll would have been about 15,000 people.

These figures emphasize that for an event to qualify as the worst day, it must significantly surpass these baseline numbers.

Evaluating Major Categories of Catastrophes

1. Pandemics and Diseases

Gary examines some of the deadliest pandemics:

• The Black Death (14th Century): Responsible for the deaths of an estimated 50 million people over seven years, averaging around 19,500 deaths per day.

• Great Dying of the Americas: European contact led to the demise of up to 100 million people over a century.

• Spanish Influenza (1918-1919): Approximately 40 million deaths, averaging about 55,000 per day.

While these pandemics caused immense suffering, their mortality was spread over extended periods, making it unlikely for any single day within these events to surpass the threshold for the worst day.

Gary Arndt [07:45]: "Because of the nature of pandemics, despite being some of the worst events in history, it would almost be impossible for them to be responsible for the single worst day in history."

2. Wars and Battles

Gary delves into the deadliest conflicts:

• Ancient Wars:

  • Battle of Cannae (216 BC): A staggering 50,000 to 70,000 Roman soldiers were killed in a single day.

  • Mongol Conquests (13th Century): Notably, the Siege of Baghdad (February 13, 1258) resulted in an estimated 200,000 to 1 million deaths, with more credible estimates placing it between 200,000 and 400,000.

• Modern Wars:

  • World War I: Battles like The Frontiers (August 22, 1914) saw around 27,000 French troops killed in a single day.

  • World War II:

    • Stalingrad: Total deaths reaching up to 2.5 million over the course of the siege.
    • Firebombing of Tokyo (March 15, 1945): Approximately 100,000 civilians perished in a single day.
    • Atomic Bombings: Hiroshima and Nagasaki saw immediate deaths of 80,000 and 40,000 respectively, with many more succumbing later to injuries and radiation.

Despite these horrifying numbers, the Mongol atrocities in places like Baghdad and Nishapur stand out due to the sheer volume of deaths concentrated in a single day.

Gary Arndt [15:30]: "The worst day in history due to military action was probably the slaughter by the Mongols in either Baghdad or Nishapur. Although we don't know the exact numbers, it was probably in the low to mid hundreds of thousands of people."

3. Natural Disasters

Modern natural disasters have caused unprecedented loss of life, primarily due to increased population densities:

• Tangshan Earthquake, China (July 28, 1976): Approximately 242,000 deaths in a single day.

• Bhola Cyclone, Bangladesh (November 13, 1970): Estimated 300,000 to 500,000 fatalities from a massive storm surge.

• Indian Ocean Tsunami (December 26, 2004): Around 230,000 deaths within hours.

• Yangtze and Huai River Floods, China (1930s): Approximately 4 million deaths over two months.

Despite these tragic events, Gary concludes that none surpass the Mongol massacres in terms of daily death tolls.

Gary Arndt [16:20]: "As far as we know, there has never been a day as bad as January 23, 1556."

Identifying the Worst Day: January 23, 1556

After meticulous analysis, Gary identifies January 23, 1556, as the worst single day in human history. This day marked a catastrophic earthquake in the Shaanxi region of China, registering an approximate 8.0 on the Richter scale. Several factors contributed to its unprecedented devastation:

• Geographical and Structural Vulnerabilities:

  • The earthquake struck one of the most densely populated areas in China, with millions residing in Yaodongs—cave dwellings carved into soft, compacted soil. These structures, while insulating against temperature extremes, were highly susceptible to collapse during seismic activity.

• Nature of the Terrain:

  • The Wei River Valley's composition of loess—a fine, windblown silt—exacerbated the disaster. The earthquake induced massive landslides, ground fissures, and soil liquefaction, leading to the sudden burial of thousands.

• Immediate Aftermath:

  • Entire cities were reduced to rubble. Survivors faced dire conditions, with many perishing in ensuing fires or succumbing to the cold.

The death toll on this tragic day is estimated at an astounding 833,000 people, a figure that dwarfs daily death averages both historical and modern. Considering the global population at the time was around 500 million, the percentage loss was even more catastrophic.

Gary Arndt [16:45]: "That evening, an estimated 833,000 people were killed in a single day."

A Glimpse into Prehistoric Catastrophes: Mount Toba

Gary briefly touches upon the Mount Toba eruption approximately 74,000 years ago, one of the most colossal volcanic events known. While exact numbers remain elusive, geological and genetic evidence suggests a massive genetic bottleneck in human populations, indicating a severe reduction in numbers. However, due to the lack of concrete data, it remains speculative in the context of identifying the worst single day.

Conclusion: Unprecedented Tragedy

Gary concludes by emphasizing the unparalleled nature of the Shaanxi earthquake on January 23, 1556. While humanity has faced countless tragedies through wars, natural disasters, and pandemics, the sheer scale of loss on this single day remains unmatched in recorded history.

Gary Arndt [17:00]: "As far as we know, there has never been a day as bad as January 23, 1556."

Acknowledgments and Community Engagement

In the closing moments, Gary extends gratitude to the show's producers and supporters, highlighting the importance of platforms like Patreon in sustaining the podcast. He also invites listeners to join the Everything Everywhere Daily community through Facebook and Discord, fostering a space for intellectual curiosity and discussion.

Notable Quotes:

• Gary Arndt [03:09]: "The easiest way to measure what the worst day would be would simply be to try and determine what day saw the greatest loss of human life."

• Gary Arndt [07:45]: "Because of the nature of pandemics, despite being some of the worst events in history, it would almost be impossible for them to be responsible for the single worst day in history."

• Gary Arndt [15:30]: "The worst day in history due to military action was probably the slaughter by the Mongols in either Baghdad or Nishapur. Although we don't know the exact numbers, it was probably in the low to mid hundreds of thousands of people."

• Gary Arndt [16:20]: "As far as we know, there has never been a day as bad as January 23, 1556."

• Gary Arndt [17:00]: "As far as we know, there has never been a day as bad as January 23, 1556."

Final Thoughts

This episode serves as a sobering reminder of the fragility of human existence and the profound impact of natural and man-made disasters. Gary Arndt's thorough analysis not only sheds light on one of history's darkest days but also encourages listeners to reflect on the resilience and vulnerabilities of societies throughout time.