Podcast
Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
292episodes
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He Called It the Worst Chart Imaginable. Then He Bought It | Rupert Mitchell on Cracks in the Mag 7
2d ago00:55:10Summary readyRupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to explain how surging AI capital spending, mega-cap share issuance and expensive U.S. technology stocks could reshape global equity leadership. They discuss the case for equal-weight stocks, energy equities, gold, UK small caps, Uzbekistan and Turkey, along with the risk that a surprise Federal Reserve hike could trigger a broader unwind in leveraged markets.Rupert Mitchell on Xhttps://x.com/SquirrelMacroBlind Squirrel Macrohttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.comTopics coveredWhy the S&P 500 versus the rest of the world remains Rupert's chart of truthHow the Bushy portfolio uses international equities, gold, commodities and hedges as an alternative to a traditional 60/40 portfolioWhy positive stock-bond correlation has weakened the diversification case for long-duration bondsHow AI data center spending, mega IPOs and new share issuance could reverse the buyback-driven de-equitization of U.S. marketsWhy Rupert is long the equal-weight S&P 500 and short the Nasdaq 100 as market leadership broadensHow China's growing power in oil markets may create a price collar that supports energy producers, refiners, midstream companies and offshore servicesWhat a surprise Federal Reserve hike or death shot could mean for technology stocks, private credit, private equity and leveraged risk assetsWhy deeply discounted UK small and mid-cap stocks may benefit from buybacks, takeovers, pension capital and investment trust activismThe opportunity in Uzbekistan's privatization program and the role of Templeton in improving governanceWhy Turkey's inflation-tested companies, strategic geography and cheap valuations may offer an attractive emerging-market setupTimestamps00:00 Intro04:00 Bushy portfolio changes across energy, commodities and precious metals08:54 How AI capital spending and equity issuance threaten the buyback era13:00 Equal-weight valuations and the long RSP, short QQQ trade17:02 China's oil price collar and the energy equity re-rating22:18 The Fed death shot and the danger of an unpriced hike30:06 Peak populism and the historic valuation gap in UK equities34:10 M&A, pension capital and UK investment trusts38:50 Uzbekistan's privatization opportunity43:39 Turkish equities, inflation and geopolitical leverage49:13 Why stress-tested businesses may offer better value53:39 Blind Squirrel Macro and Benny and the SquirrelLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
SummaryThe Warren Buffett Portfolio: Robert Hagstrom on What Wall Street Gets Wrong About Risk
3d ago01:07:45Summary readyOn the latest 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to revisit the 25th anniversary edition of The Warren Buffett Portfolio and explain why volatility is not the same as investment risk.They discuss concentrated portfolios, active share, business valuation, behavioral finance, complex adaptive systems, and Warren Buffett’s warning that the market’s casino can overwhelm its cathedral.The Warren Buffett Portfolio – 25th Anniversary Editionhttps://amzn.to/3TVXoruRobert Hagstrom on Xhttps://x.com/RobertGHagstromEquity Compasshttps://www.equitycompass.com/Topics coveredWhy Markowitz’s definition of risk as variance shaped modern portfolio theoryWhy Buffett views permanent capital loss, not volatility, as the real investing riskWhat Hagstrom’s study of 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration and market outperformanceThe difference between know-something investors and investors better served by indexingHow benchmark awareness creates closet indexers and weakens active managementWhat loss aversion and prospect theory explain about investor behaviorWhy Darwin, William James, and complex adaptive systems offer better models for marketsBuffett’s cathedral and casino metaphor for business ownership versus speculationThe El Farol problem, Jim Simons, and why successful market models stop workingWhy options trading, leveraged ETFs, and record single-stock dispersion may be strengthening the casinoHow to evaluate portfolios using cash flow, return on invested capital, and look-through earningsWhy permanent capital and System 2 thinking are essential for focused investingTimestamps00:00 Intro04:00 Why Markowitz defined risk as variance11:47 What 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration17:17 Know-something versus know-nothing investors22:23 Kahneman, loss aversion, and modern portfolio theory26:58 Darwin, pragmatism, and adaptive markets32:28 Buffett’s cathedral and casino metaphor37:37 The El Farol problem and why markets resist prediction42:08 Why investors crave market forecasts46:16 Why investing is most intelligent when businesslike51:38 Record stock dispersion, options, and leveraged ETFs56:00 Measuring portfolio progress through business economics01:00:43 Why permanent capital enables focus investing01:04:43 How markets survive widespread investor mistakesLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.
SummaryEven God Would Be Fired | Wes Gray on Bubbles, AI Valuations and Why Size Was Never the Edge
6d ago00:56:07Summary readyWes Gray joins us to explain how factor investors should think about high market valuations, S&P 500 concentration, value investing, small caps, artificial intelligence and the behavioral challenge of staying invested for the long term. He also breaks down Section 351 ETF exchanges, including how appreciated portfolios can move into an ETF without an immediate taxable sale, why direct-indexing portfolios are a major use case and how the ETF wrapper is reshaping asset management.Wes Gray on Xhttps://x.com/alphaarchitectAlpha Architecthttps://alphaarchitect.comETF Architecthttps://etfarchitect.comLong-Only Value Investing: Does Size Matter?https://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AA-JBISFactorInvesting22LongOnlyValueInvesting.pdfEven God Would Get Fired as an Active Investorhttps://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Even_God_Would_Get_Fired_as_an_Active_Investor.pdfTopics coveredWhy high valuations may lower long-term expected returns without providing a reliable market-timing signalHow S&P 500 concentration creates a major large-cap, quality and growth factor betWhy earnings and operating income may be better value metrics than book-to-market in an intangible economyWhy valuation may matter more than company size for long-only value investorsHow unprofitable companies and low-quality stocks can distort small-cap value indexesWhether AI has changed the historical relationship between growth and value investingHow AI may eliminate short-term trading edges while leaving long-horizon opportunities intactWhy even an investor with perfect foresight could suffer severe drawdowns and get firedHow passive investing flows may affect market prices and factor returnsHow Section 351 exchanges can solve problems created by appreciated SMAs, tax-loss harvesting and direct indexingThe 25/50 diversification rules, cost-basis transfer and tax-deferral mechanics of ETF conversionsWhy assets continue moving from mutual funds, hedge funds and separate accounts into ETFsWhy enduring underperformance may be necessary to earn higher long-term returnsTimestamps00:00 Alpha Architect, ETF Architect and building an ETF platform04:00 Can factor investors time a market bubble?08:03 Intangible assets and the problems with book-to-market13:42 The quality problem inside small-cap value indexes18:18 Has technology changed the growth-versus-value equation?23:25 Can AI create lasting investment alpha?27:42 Are investors behaving better today?34:39 How Section 351 ETF exchanges work39:48 The diversification rules for tax-deferred ETF conversions44:34 How cost basis and deferred taxes carry into the ETF49:07 Mutual fund, hedge fund and SMA conversions54:13 Why investors should embrace underperformanceLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
SummaryNot a Time for Big Bets | Aahan Menon on What 60 Years of Regime Data Says About Today’s Market
1w ago00:57:55Summary readyAahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, joins Jack Forehand to explain what systematic macro data says about economic growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, oil prices, AI investment and the outlook for stocks and bonds. They examine why nominal GDP remains stable, why traditional recession indicators have failed, how consumer dissaving is boosting corporate profits, and why today's unusually balanced regime probabilities make this a difficult time for large macro bets.Aahan Menon on Xhttps://x.com/AahanPrometheusPrometheus Researchhttps://www.prometheus-macro.comTopics coveredWhy geopolitical volatility and disrupted market trends make concentrated macro bets unusually difficultWhat Prometheus Research's daily GDP nowcast says about stable nominal growthWhy AI capital spending matters but consumer spending still drives the US economyHow household dissaving and the wealth effect are supporting corporate profitsWhy the economy and Federal Reserve policy may be increasingly sensitive to stock pricesHow oil prices are driving inflation volatility and changing expectations for interest ratesWhy demand-driven inflation is more persistent than supply-driven inflationHow technology investment has weakened traditional recession and business-cycle indicatorsThe value and limitations of timing Federal Reserve policy with systematic macro dataWhat macro regime probabilities, valuations and expected returns suggest for stocks, bonds and diversificationTimestamps00:02 Why this is a difficult time for big macro bets05:02 A daily GDP nowcast shows stable nominal growth09:21 Consumer dissaving and the future economic risk13:23 The wealth effect linking stocks, spending and profits17:52 Oil prices and extreme inflation volatility22:23 Separating persistent demand inflation from supply shocks27:27 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working32:55 How technology is changing the business cycle37:42 Why timing Federal Reserve cycles matters for bond returns42:28 The limitations of alternative data and short histories47:33 Macro regime forecasts and expected returns51:54 Why the macro backdrop still supports equities56:19 Why investors can finally get paid to diversifyLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
SummaryWe Asked the Man Who Mapped the AI Economy If the Boom Is Real — And Who Keeps the Money
1w ago01:15:31Summary readyAzeem Azhar joins Kai Wu to break down the real economics of the AI boom, including the $110 billion demand base, where profits may accrue across chips, hosting, foundation models and applications, and whether spending can translate into enterprise productivity. They discuss AI infrastructure bottlenecks, open-source competition, vertical integration, organizational redesign, software moats, human judgment and the signals investors can use to identify companies turning AI adoption into durable competitive advantage.The State of the AI Economyhttps://intelligence.exponentialview.co/assets/ev-state-of-ai-economy-2026.pdfWhy AI Isn't Showing Up on Your Bottom Linehttps://www.exponentialview.co/p/why-ai-isnt-showing-up-on-your-bottom-lineAzeem Azhar on Xhttps://x.com/azeemExponential Viewhttps://www.exponentialview.co/Topics CoveredThe size and growth rate of real generative AI demandHow the AI stack divides between chips, hosting, foundation models and applicationsWhy memory and energized data centers may be the key AI infrastructure bottlenecksOpen-source models, proprietary pricing and enterprise assuranceVertical integration and foundation model labs moving into applicationsHow AI value could flow to consumers rather than infrastructure providersWhy AI productivity requires workflow and organizational redesignWhat investors can learn from earnings calls, hiring and enterprise spendingForward-deployed engineers, consulting firms and vendor lock-inWhich intangible business moats strengthen or weaken as intelligence becomes abundantTimestamps00:00 The economics and sustainability of the AI boom06:34 Mapping the four layers of the AI stack10:43 Vertical integration and cross-stack competition15:31 Why memory is becoming an AI infrastructure bottleneck20:01 Open-source models versus proprietary AI24:36 Why foundation model labs are moving up and down the stack28:51 Could AI profits become consumer surplus?33:00 Why more copilots cannot create an AI-native company37:17 Job postings and the intangible investments behind AI adoption44:16 Can forward-deployed engineers transform legacy companies?49:15 Which business moats strengthen or weaken in the AI economy?54:20 Do foundation models really have network effects?59:00 Why judgment, verification and human provenance become more valuable01:04:56 The exponential gap in data centers and education01:10:06 How Azeem uses AI to deepen research and generate ideasLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
SummaryIt Only Happens at Bottoms | Andy Constan on the Options Extreme That Showed Up at the Highs
2w ago00:57:36Summary readyOn the Latest First Principles, Andy Constan explains what the options market is signaling about the AI and semiconductor boom, why he believes earnings expectations have outrun the size of the economy, and where the next risks may emerge. We discuss speculative call buying, single-stock volatility, AI capital spending, consumer dissaving, the Fed put, Kevin Warsh's monetary policy framework, and the looming reset of US tariffs.Topics covered:* Why parabolic moves in AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks may reflect a speculative bubble* What rising single-stock volatility and unusually low market correlations reveal beneath a calm index* Why out-of-the-money calls became more expensive than puts and what that says about investor positioning* How investors can hedge concentrated stock gains by selling calls and buying protective puts* Why the AI bubble may be hiding in earnings expectations rather than traditional valuation multiples* Andy's economic pie framework and why projected corporate profits may exceed the GDP available to support them* How AI competition, open-source models, job displacement and subsidized token usage affect the return on AI investment* Why capital spending and consumer dissaving are supporting economic growth, and where those drivers could weaken* Whether the Federal Reserve could eventually buy equity ETFs and the inflationary consequences of a permanent Fed put* How lower short-term rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet could rebalance Main Street and Wall Street* Why expiring Section 122 tariffs could create a near-term shift in inflation, growth and the federal deficitTimestamps:00:02 Why the options market is flashing a warning on AI stocks04:02 Extreme stock dispersion beneath a calm market08:49 The signals of a speculative call-buying frenzy13:00 How to hedge a stock position without calling the top18:36 Why earnings expectations may be the real AI bubble23:00 The economic pie cannot support every company's forecasts27:00 AI job displacement and the widening gap between winners and losers31:59 How capital spending and consumer dissaving are sustaining growth36:00 When the return on AI investment starts to matter40:26 Could the Fed buy stocks in the next financial crisis?44:53 How Kevin Warsh might respond when markets and employment collapse48:58 Lower rates, a smaller balance sheet and wealth inequality52:59 The tariff deadline investors may be overlookingLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
SummaryJack Schwager on Timeless Lessons from Elite Traders
2w ago01:01:55Summary readyJack Schwager joins Excess Returns to discuss Market Wizards: The Next Generation and the extraordinary young traders profiled in the newest installment of the Market Wizards series.He explains how traders turned small accounts into fortunes, survived devastating losses, built exceptional risk-adjusted records and adapted from day trading to longer-term strategies, while revealing the psychology, risk management and commitment behind elite trading performance.Jack Schwager on Xhttps://x.com/jackschwagerMarket Wizards: The Next Generationhttps://amzn.to/4psEOmHTopics coveredHow video games, prop trading firms and modern technology shaped a new generation of tradersHow Jack Schwager finds candidates and verifies extraordinary trading track recordsWhy return-to-risk measures can reveal more than the Sharpe ratioLukas Froelich's astonishing 2020 performance and the limits of compounding and scalabilitySimon Rousseau's journey from a $40,000 borrowed account to nearly $500 millionHow breaking risk rules led to massive losses even after extraordinary successKristjan Kullamägi's path from security guard to more than $100 million after repeated account blowupsPhil Goedeker's success with short selling, option selling and unusually strong risk controlRick Bandazian Jr.'s merger arbitrage edge and more than a decade without a losing monthWhy financial markets may remain uniquely difficult for artificial intelligence to solveLance Breitstein's apprenticeship, deliberate practice and shift from day trading to longer-term positionsWhat traders and long-term investors can learn about talent, discipline, persistence and human natureTimestamps00:00 Intro to Market Wizards: The Next Generation04:33 How Jack finds exceptional traders and how the trading ecosystem changed09:15 Auditing Lukas Froelich's extraordinary 2020 returns14:03 Simon Rousseau: turning $40,000 into nearly $500 million18:42 The $50 million Carvana loss and the danger of breaking trading rules22:54 Kristjan Kullamägi: from security guard to more than $100 million28:36 Phil Goedeker and the risk of negative asymmetry strategies32:41 Hedging option risk during the Liberation Day market selloff37:34 Trading personality and Rick Bandazian Jr.'s no-loss record41:36 Can artificial intelligence ever become a Market Wizard?45:42 Lance Breitstein: choosing mentorship over a higher salary49:42 What long-term investors can learn from elite traders53:52 Innate talent, human nature and all-consuming commitment57:58 What the next generation of trading may look likeLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
SummaryThe Recession the Unemployment Rate Can't See | Eric Pachman on the Data Beneath the Jobs Report
2w ago01:06:16Summary readyEric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to explain why headline employment and inflation data may be giving investors an incomplete picture of the U.S. economy. They examine falling labor force participation, Medicaid-funded healthcare jobs, wage quality, oil and diesel shortages, consumer financial stress and how AI can make public data more useful.Eric Pachman on Xhttps://x.com/EricPachmanData 4 The Peoplehttps://www.data4thepeople.com/Main topics coveredWhy the establishment survey and household survey can tell very different labor market storiesWhy unemployment may miss weakening labor force participation and disappearing working-age AmericansThe decline in participation among older workers and menHow healthcare and Medicaid-funded care have become the engine of U.S. job growthWhy Medicaid cuts could create a major employment and consumer spending riskWhat occupational wage data reveals about the quality of new jobs and home healthcare payThe differences between CPI, PCE and core inflation and why the standard measures can be misleadingHow crude oil grades, refinery design and 3-2-1 crack spreads shape energy pricesWhy falling diesel inventories could spread inflation through transportation, food and retailWhat the single-income stress test reveals about household fragility, poverty and multiple-job holdersHow Data 4 The People is using AI to build public-interest data research toolsTimestamps00:00 Intro04:41 Why the unemployment rate can miss a labor crisis11:24 Healthcare jobs, aging America and the Medicaid care economy18:44 The Wage Ledger and the hidden quality of U.S. job growth24:18 Why inflation is moving higher30:48 Why every equity investor needs to understand oil36:00 Crack spreads and the refinery mismatch problem44:05 Why diesel is the inflation risk that matters most48:34 The single-income stress test and consumer fragility54:42 Data 4 The People's nonprofit mission59:00 Building an AI research assistant for public data01:03:37 Where to follow Eric and Data 4 The PeopleLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
SummaryJim Paulsen Sees a Correction Coming | The 33 Charts That Turned Him Cautious
3w ago00:58:43Summary readyJim Paulsen joins us to explain why weakening economic momentum, tightening financial conditions and extreme AI enthusiasm could set the stage for a 10% to 20% stock market correction. We discuss labor market weakness, the growing divide between technology and the broader economy, fading tech leadership, market complacency, bond yields and the demographic forces that could keep US growth and inflation lower for years.Jim also explains why he does not expect a recession or the end of the long-term bull market, but believes investors may need to reduce their concentration in AI and technology stocks as leadership quietly shifts toward the broader market.Jim Paulsen on Xhttps://x.com/jimwpaulsenPaulsen Perspectiveshttps://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/Main topics covered• Why Jim expects a 10% to 20% market correction without a recession• What zero job creation, declining full-time employment and rising unemployment reveal about the labor market• Why housing starts, real disposable income and GDP forecasts point to weaker economic growth• How higher Treasury yields, oil prices, a stronger dollar and slower money growth have tightened financial conditions• Why the economic damage from an oil shock often appears after oil prices peak• The widening earnings and economic divide between AI investment and the rest of the economy• What investor positioning, shrinking liquidity and low defensive exposure reveal about market complacency• Why strong earnings momentum does not eliminate the risk of a market decline• Evidence that technology, communication services and the Magnificent Seven are losing market leadership• Why old economy sectors may outperform technology during the next stage of the bull market• How weak labor force growth could push economic growth, inflation and Treasury yields lower• Why demographics, immigration and productivity will shape the long-term US economic outlookTimestamps00:00 Why Jim Paulsen expects a 10% to 20% market correction04:32 The labor market weakness investors may be overlooking08:42 Housing, disposable income and GDP growth are deteriorating13:03 How tighter financial conditions could slow the economy17:09 Why oil shocks and the yield curve threaten earnings growth21:41 Investor complacency and the disconnect between markets and Main Street25:54 How today’s AI boom differs from the dot-com bubble30:20 Defensive stocks reach an extreme last seen near major market tops34:36 Record earnings expectations, momentum and extreme valuations39:00 Technology, communication services and the Magnificent Seven lose momentum43:00 The hidden market rotation from new era to old era stocks47:01 Why Jim expects Treasury yields to fall below 3%51:43 The demographic forces suppressing growth and inflation55:45 America’s long-term growth challenge and what could change it
SummaryBig Uptrend. Tech Momentum Fading | Katie Stockton on the Rotation Investors Are Missing
3w ago00:53:44Summary readyKatie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Excess Returns to break down the current technical setup for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, mega-cap tech, market breadth, sector rotation, international stocks and gold. We discuss why short-term momentum has weakened, what would confirm a more serious breakdown, how investors can use technical analysis for risk management, and where breakouts are appearing outside the AI and semiconductor trade.Katie Stockton on Xhttps://x.com/StocktonKatieFairlead Strategieshttps://www.fairleadstrategies.com/Fairlead Fundshttps://www.fairleadfunds.com/Main topics coveredWhy the S&P 500 is still in a long-term uptrend but showing short-term momentum lossHow Katie defines overbought and oversold using the stochastic oscillatorWhy the March monthly MACD sell signal became an unusual whipsawWhat the QQQs and Nasdaq 100 are saying about technology leadershipHow investors can use stop losses, hedges and moving averages to manage riskWhy the market has held up despite underperformance in the Magnificent SevenThe difference between market breadth and market leadershipWhy sector rotation is improving in healthcare, industrials, utilities, insurers and biotechHow sentiment indicators like the VIX and Fear and Greed Index fit into market timingHow the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF uses trend following, sector rotation, Treasuries and goldWhat the charts are saying about emerging markets, developed international stocks and the U.S.Why gold has moved from a strong bull market into a more tactical trading environmentTimestamps00:00 Intro00:58 Why the S&P 500 is losing short-term momentum05:04 How overbought conditions can reset without a major decline08:39 Why whipsaws make confirmation so important12:02 What the QQQs are saying about technology leadership16:51 How to manage risk with stop losses and hedges20:07 Why the market held up despite Mag Seven weakness23:49 How market breadth differs from market leadership28:14 What sentiment indicators are saying about investor positioning32:58 Why the market is in a technical void36:00 Sector rotation beyond technology and semiconductors40:54 How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF manages drawdowns46:05 What international stock charts are saying versus the U.S.50:13 Why markets have been resilient despite geopolitical risk52:05 What the chart of gold is telling investors now
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