BONUS: Norlander interviews selection committee vice chair after Saturday's top 16 seeds reveal

Summary

Eye On College Basketball – BONUS: Post-Top 16 Seeds Reveal Interview

Host: Matt Norlander (CBS Sports)
Guest: Martin Newton (Selection Committee Vice Chair)
Date: February 22, 2026

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Episode Overview

Matt Norlander interviews NCAA Tournament Selection Committee Vice Chair Martin Newton for immediate reaction and deep-dive analysis following the reveal of the preliminary top 16 seeds (“top 16 reveal”). The conversation covers decisions regarding the top seeds, the nuances of bracket construction, the impact of injuries, emerging selection metrics, and how the committee weighs resumes in a season full of parity and storylines.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why Iowa State over Houston as a No. 1 Seed?

• Context: Many media members expected Houston to land the fourth #1 seed over Iowa State, citing superior team metrics and fewer bad losses.
• Explanation from Newton:
  • “At that point in time, we had Iowa State ahead of Houston simply based on the head to head.” (02:25)
  • Iowa State’s resume included quality road and home wins (notably at Purdue and against Houston).
  • Newton stressed the committee uses metrics as a “tool, not their guide,” and that Iowa State’s wins were deemed “a little bit better” than Houston’s. (02:25-03:30)
• Notable Quote:
  • “Metrics are a tool. They are not their guide. They don't make the final decision and everything.”
    — Martin Newton (02:54)

2. Bracket Principles and Seed Placement (UConn vs. Illinois on 2-line)

• Context: There was public confusion over why UConn, the #5 overall, was slotted in a region that seemed “off-seed.”
• Committee Approach:
  • The committee aims to “bring as much balance to the brackets as we can, especially on top four lines.” (04:05)
  • Bracket principles require separation of teams from the same conference and maintaining seeding fairness.
  • At times, this means swapping teams’ placements to avoid conflicts (e.g., UConn and Illinois).
  • Newton provided nuance: “The number five overall seed does not pair in the same as the number one seed… the bracket principles weighed in on this one.” (04:05–04:56)
• Notable Quote:
  • “We've got a bracket principal. We want to keep it within six. ... There’s a lot of intricacies that go into that.”
    — Martin Newton (04:25)

3. Texas Tech's Positioning While Handling a Key Injury

• Context: Texas Tech was slotted as the best four-seed despite a key loss and an All-American player’s season-ending injury.
• Committee Response:
  • Texas Tech dropped from the three-line due to both the loss and the severity of J.T. Toppin’s injury.
  • With Gonzaga as a comparator (whose Braden Huff had missed 10 games), the lack of precedent for Tech’s post-injury play forced the committee to be cautious and move them down. (05:31–06:10)
• Notable Quote:
  • “There was nothing for us to compare it to at the time. So the resumes and what they had up until this point, we felt like needed to move them to the four line.”
    — Martin Newton (05:54)

4. The Strength of the 2026 Top 16 Seeds

• Context: Norlander notes the perceived depth and strength of this year’s top 16.
• Committee Perspective:
  • Newton agrees it’s an “impressive field” and notes there are “a lot of teams that have a play pathway to get to that number one seed and to eventually win a national championship.” (06:37)
  • Anticipates more great basketball and upsets with over 800 games yet to play before Selection Sunday.
• Notable Quote:
  • “There’s a lot of teams that have a play pathway to get to that number one seed and to eventually win a national championship.”
    — Martin Newton (07:00)

5. Advanced Metrics in 2026: The Rise of Wins Above Bubble (WAB)

• Context: Norlander asks about “Wins Above Bubble” (WAB), how it works, and its role in selections.
• Definition:
  • WAB compares a team’s results against its schedule to what a bubble-level team would do against that same schedule.
• Committee Usage:
  • “It has become a very reliable metric for us to use. … It’s not the end all be all, but it has become a very reliable metric.” (07:23-07:50)
• Miami’s Unique Undefeated Resume:
  • Miami University’s 27–0 start sparked considerable committee discussion but was still outside top 16 consideration. (08:01–08:59)
  • WAB will be crucial if Miami doesn’t win its conference tournament.
• Notable Quote:
  • “The WAB has become another one of those tools that are in our tool belt to be able to judge teams.”
    — Martin Newton (07:40)

6. The “Last Two Out”: Alabama and Arkansas

• Context: Which teams just missed the top 16?
• Explanation:
  • Alabama and Arkansas were “right on the outside,” notably after an epic double-OT head-to-head.
  • Virginia got the final four-seed nod over them based on road wins and strong overall metrics.
  • “They’re eight no on the road. And we just felt like at this time, Virginia deserved that four spot.” (09:22)
• Notable Quote:
  • “As we scrub those teams against Virginia… Virginia, because of the three losses that they had, that were four of the true road wins against the upper half of the first quadrant… deserved that four spot.”
    — Martin Newton (09:22)

7. The Value of Overall Record vs. Metrics

• Context: Norlander asks about the role of win-loss record compared to metrics and “body of work.”
• Response:
  • Overall wins and record still “play into it”—but are only part of a suite of tools considered.
  • “You can’t just hone in on one or two tools. You have to look at the full body of the work throughout the course of the season.” (10:21)
• Notable Quote:
  • “You have to look at the full body of the work throughout the course of the season.”
    — Martin Newton (10:34)

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Memorable/Fun Moments

• Mock Committee Banter (10:43–11:23):
  Matt jokes about his stint as “vice chair” during the media mock selection, and Newton quips, “The scuttlebutt in the room after you took my role as the vice chair during those mock selections, that was the most intelligent that's come out of that chair year to date.”
  (11:06)

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Important Timestamps

• 01:44 — Matt Norlander begins interview
• 02:25 — Iowa State vs. Houston for final 1-seed
• 04:05 — Bracket construction, moving UConn and Illinois
• 05:31 — Texas Tech’s 4-seed and the Toppin injury
• 06:37 — Big picture: Strength of the top 16
• 07:07 — Wins Above Bubble (WAB) explained
• 08:28 — Miami’s 27–0 season and committee consideration
• 09:22 — Alabama & Arkansas just miss the cut
• 10:21 — Overall record’s role in team evaluation
• 11:06 — Closing banter and appreciation

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Final Takeaway

This episode offered a detailed look into how and why the Selection Committee makes its most scrutinized early decisions, while also previewing the high-stakes debates to come. Newton’s transparency gave fans insight into both the human and analytical elements of the process, emphasizing there is no single metric or guideline—it’s about building the most balanced, competitive tournament possible.

Transcript

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[Matt]

Thank you so much, Emily. Joined here by the Vice chair Martin Newton. We just saw each other in Indianapolis. It's great to see you again, Martin. Let's dive right in. Obviously a fun day for college basketball fans. Plenty yet still to be determined over the next 22 days. We have to start with the one line. No debates about Michigan, number one overall, Duke, Arizona. But how about this? The media mock committee. We put Houston on the one line, but the real selection committee, you all decided to put Iowa State there. Now, Houston rates better than Iowa State in six of the seven team metrics. Unlike Iowa State, it does not have losses to fringe or outright non NCAA tournament teams. What were the factors that led to the Cyclones beating out the Cougars for the final one seed?

[Martin Newton]

Well, first of all, it's good to see you again as well and enjoyed our time in Indianapolis and hopefully you got to get a little peek behind the curtain of what takes place during that selection and maybe have a little empathy for us along the line. But no, I think at the end of the day, when we walked into the seating on Wednesday, UConn was the fourth number one seed. And as they came off the loss against, against Creighton at home and felt that was a Quad 2 loss, the committee felt that we needed to go back and scrub again. So at that point in time, we had Iowa State ahead of Houston simply based on the head to head. And so you look at Iowa State's metrics you talked about, I will say this, that metrics are a tool. They are not their guide. They don't make the final decision and everything. But as you looked at their, as you looked at their wins, they've got quality wins at Purdue, quality win against Houston that I mentioned Kansas and then Arkansas, or, excuse me, Houston's wins against Texas Tech and Arkansas and byu. We just felt like that the quality of wins for Iowa State was just a little bit better than Houston's.

[Matt]

Okay, fair enough. I want to bring a little more clarity to our audience on something. Dave Warlock, who does such an amazing job, the comms director for the ncaa, he sent something out over on Twitter and He said because UConn is the 5 overall, which was the other surprise, that it wasn't Houston that was five. It was actually UConn, Houston, then Illinois. But he said that flipping UConn in Illinois on the two line was the only way to keep everyone at their true bracket line. Can you just expound on that just a little bit more so fans can understand why sometimes the procedures might wind up slotting teams in different regions or different lines than they might expect?

[Martin Newton]

Yeah, it's a great question. And you know, Matt, the reality of it is we want to try to bring as much balance to the brackets as we can. Right. Especially on top four lines. We've got a bracket principal. We want to keep it within six. And so as we were going through this process and seating teams, we had about a nine point differential that we needed to figure out. So we ended up switching Michigan State and Virginia so that we could get there. But then there's also other principles. If you look at, you've got five Big Ten teams that are in the tournament in the top four and you or that that are in that top seed line and you've got four Big 12 teams. So there's a lot of intricacies that go into that and we can't we've got to make sure that first of all, the number five seed, number five overall seed does not pair in the same as the number one seed. So like I said, Mr. Warlock has a long history of understanding this, but the bracket principles weighed in on this one.

[Matt]

Yeah, that's a big one. And we'll have more on [e-mail] Gary Parrish and I will talk about in the On College Basketball podcast so people have a greater understanding of how that actually works. Okay, we need to discuss Texas Tech. This was the shocker to me, 13th overall in the seed rankings, the best four seed. Now, you guys were throwing a curveball because J.T. toppin got injured out for the season in the midst of you doing this. But not only that, Texas Tech did lose that game at Arizona State, a notable loss. Why was Texas Tech given something of the benefit of the doubt despite losing a player, its best player, a first team All American for the remainder of the season?

[Martin Newton]

Yeah, it's a great point. And the end of the day, they were sitting on the three line going into Wednesday night. And then we get the news of the injury and then we got the news of the severity of the injury on Thursday. And so as we did that scrubbing, we looked at Gonzaga as well, who was right behind them. Gonzaga jumped them and there was some similarities there. If you think about it, Braden Huff, who is the great player for Gonzaga, he'd been out the last 10 games, but there was a, there was a history of those 10 games we were able to compare with J.T. toppins injury. There was nothing for us to compare it to at the time. So the resumes and what they had up until this point, we felt like needed to move them to the four line.

[Matt]

I got a couple more for you, but I want to ask you just to talk big picture on the strength of this top 16. It's been an amazing season for college basketball so far this season, really building into one of the greater seasons, in my opinion. We've seen over the past 10 to 15 years in the committee room as you were all debating on who's going to be on the one line and the two and the three. Was there any kind of discussion or acknowledgement of just the outright strength of these resumes and the teams that are involved. Did it feel like this is a little bit of a, of an uptick in a different year as opposed to what you've gone through in recent seasons?

[Martin Newton]

Martin yeah, there's a lot of, a lot of really good basketball teams out There you mentioned that we've seen some great games this year. We're going to see some great games today. I mean you got just think about what's coming on after this. So there's over 800 plus games that are going to continue to happen and I, I anticipate that we're going to see some really good basketball going forward. And so yeah, there's a lot of, I think this, this top 16 seeds right now. This is a really impressive field. There's, there's a lot of teams that have a play pathway to get to that number one seed and to eventually win a national championship.

[Matt]

All right, I want to discuss a metric called wins above bubble. Shorthand is wob. What does it measure? What is it? Why should fans and media be aware of it and what role does it play now in the committee room in 2026 but really in the years to come?

[Martin Newton]

Yeah, you know, the wob, quite simply, this is the second year that we've really dove into the wob. And the WOB basically is it's number of wins a team has versus their schedule compared to what an average bubble team would have versus that same schedule and how they would fare. And so the WAB has become another one of those tools that are in our tool belt to be able to judge teams. It's not the end all be all, but it has become a very reliable metric for us to use as it

[Matt]

pertains to wins above bubble. I'm just curious. Big picture on Miami University 27 and oh, now it's 35th in WAB. It's actually even stronger in another resume based metric.

[Brand Representative]

Strength of record.

[Matt]

It's 22 right now. Obviously Miami isn't in the top 16. Probably wasn't even sniffing that at this point. I'm just curious how much the Redhawks season was discussed over the course of three days with your fellow committee members as they are pacing toward, you know, a historic season might well run the regular season table. And how wins above bubble may wind up being a critical resume in Miami's favor if they find themselves in the position of not getting the automatic bid out of the Mac in that league tournament.

[Martin Newton]

Yeah, the selection orientation process we try to see, we try to go through one through 68, including the first four out. Now again, I'll go back and say we've got a lot of basketball left to play. Over 800 plus games left to play. Conference tournaments left to play. AQs haven't been determined. So as we went through that process, there was a lot of discussion about Miami and quite frankly, a lot of other teams, but they've had a remarkable season. You can't doubt that at all. But there was a lot of discussion about them as well as other teams, and this is where the wins above bubble can definitely come into play.

[Matt]

Yeah, no doubt about it. And you'd acknowledge, though, that Miami in particular, even with the discussion on the other teams, it stands to be as talked about as maybe any. Any team in the field. When you. When you meet up in three weeks, you know, results pending.

[Brand Representative]

Martin.

[Martin Newton]

Yeah, absolutely.

[Matt]

Which two teams missed the cut? We got the top 16, but you gotta. You gotta make that hard cut. Who were they and why didn't they make the. Make the top 16?

[Martin Newton]

Yeah, so those two teams right on the outside were Alabama and Arkansas, and they arguably may have paid the best game in college basketball year to date. I mean, unbelievable double overtime game the other day in Tuscaloosa. I think the committee felt, as we scrub those teams against Virginia, who was the last four seed, that Virginia, because of the three losses that they had, that were four of the true road wins against the upper half of the first quadrant. They're eight no on the road. And we just felt like at this time, Virginia deserved that four, that four spot.

[Matt]

My last one for you on that. I feel like as we, as we go along with all this and we talk about the metrics and we talk about quad one or quad two results. Right. We talk about wins above bubble. I feel like sometimes overall record maybe gets a little bit lost in discussion. Isn't it fair to say Virginia only has three losses? It has an extremely impressive record as a high major team that's gotten some good wins. You know, ultimately, what about the overall record? And sometimes how that impact or that, how that's represented in the committee room can mean a difference if a team has three losses versus, say, a team that has five.

[Martin Newton]

Well, you know, you sat in there for the mock selections, right? And you're reading those team sheets and, and you guys did it for half a day. We're doing it for a full week. And it can get, you know, you're looking at so many different things, but yeah, absolutely. Overall wins plays into it. But again, we've got a lot of tools in our tool belt, and you can't just hone in on one or two tools. You have to look at the full body of the work throughout the course of the season.

[Matt]

Martin Newton, we appreciate you. Listen, it was only a half day. A little more than that. If you want to invite me back, I don't know, in two and a half, three weeks or so and have me just hang around in the room. I can get water, I can fetch coffee if you want to just have me linger. I'm more than happy to do it. But it was wonderful to see you in Indianapolis. We appreciate you joining us on CBS Sports HQ and we eagerly await the real deal in just 22 days from now.

[Martin Newton]

Yeah, so do we. And you know, Matt, the scuttlebutt in the room after you took my role as the vice chair during those mock selections, that was the most intelligent that's come out of that chair year to date. So we're going to leave you where you are so that I can continue my role as the vice chair. But I appreciate all you do to support the game.

[Matt]

You said it, not me. Thank you. Martin Newton, we appreciate you. If we could toss that top 16 back on the screen here, you see what the committee built out heading into this weekend. Still so much to be played. Here's a note from me, Emily, since we've been doing this, it's been a decade, but there's been eight previous years where we had a subsequent tournament. There was no 2020 NCAA tournament. On average, 13.5 teams out of the 16 you see here were still a 1, 2, 3 or 4 seed when we got to Selection Sunday. So expect two or three to not be on those lines when we meet again for the Real Deal in mid March. But very big gains for Michigan, the easy number one overall seat.

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